developing a cold temperature risk assessment kristen gore, adrienne wootten, and ryan boyles...
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Developing a Cold Temperature Risk Assessment
Kristen Gore, Adrienne Wootten, and Ryan Boyles
Carolinas and Virginia Climate ConferenceOctober 20, 2009
Wilmington, NC
Motivation
• Spring freezes can potentially eliminate an entire year’s worth of crops– Severe damage can have impacts for several
years to fruit crops
• Some crops are more vulnerable then others
• Risk of freeze damage depends on – Plant develop prior to freeze– Timing, duration of freeze
The NC Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Estimated Crop Losses to a total of $112 million dollars in North Carolina
Methods
• The Probability of a freeze is determined using– Station– Time Span (at least 30yrs)– Date of Interest– Temperature Threshold (depends on the
crop)
Statistical Information
• Probability of the Low Temperature Falling below the threshold for a given date
• Low Temperature Frequency Distribution• Climatological Probability Trend• Yearly Growing Degree Day (GDD) Trend• Climatological GDD Trend