Ricardo-AEA

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www.ricardo-aea.com

Gena Gibson – senior consultant

A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport

低碳交通的长期政策框架

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Cutting transport emissions in Europe

欧洲减排政策

Policy options

• Reduce the GHG intensity of fuels

• Tighten car CO2 emission standards

• Introduce CO2 targets for vans and heavy duty vehicles

• Increase fuel taxes

• “Polluter pays”

• Teach efficient driving techniques

• Reduce speed limits

• Spatial planning measures

具体政策

• 降低燃料对温室气体的排放

• 提高汽车尾气二氧化碳排放标准

• 对货车及重型车辆推广二氧化碳排放额目标

• 提高燃料税额

• “污染责任承包”

• 培训减排驾驶技巧

• 降低公路限速

• 有效计划空间利用

A long-term policy framework for low-carbon transport

低碳交通的长期政策框架

© Ricardo-AEA Ltd Ricardo-AEA in Confidence 3

Ricardo-AEA Modelling

减排方法

Policy scenario

GHG emissions

Co-benefits

Costs

SULTAN scenario analysis tool

Transport modes

(7 passenger, 6 freight)

All major modes of transport covered

Powertrain technologies

All major current and future options for vehicle

drivetrains

Energy carriers / fuels

Each powertrain technology can use up to 3

Behavioural & operational

Vehicle technologies

•Engine technology

• Non-engine technology

•Electric and hybrid technology

• Biofuels

• Hydrogen fuel cells

• Infrastructure & spatial

planning

• Intelligent transport systems

• Speed & traffic management

• Shift to more efficient

vehicles

日常运作

车辆技术

•引擎技术

•非引擎技术

•电力及混动技术

•生物燃料

•氢气燃料电池

•有效计划基础设施与空间

•智能化交通系统

•速度与车流管理

•向低排放车辆转型

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Results from scenario analysis

实际案例分析

百万吨二氧化碳等量温室气体

没有政策控制的二氧化碳总排放

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Results from scenario analysis

实际案例分析

百万吨二氧化碳等量温室气体

Reduction of fuel GHG

Vehicle efficiency

Demand efficiency

减少燃料产生的温室气体

减少车辆产生的温室气体

排放限额交易利益驱使

(有效需求)

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

Total energy supplied from biofuels by energy carrier (Sum All), V2-b

LNG

Marine Fuels

Kerosene

CNG

LPG

Hydrogen

Electricity

Diesel

Gasoline

BAU-a total0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

Total energy supplied from biofuels by energy carrier (Sum All), V5-b

LNG

Marine Fuels

Kerosene

CNG

LPG

Hydrogen

Electricity

Diesel

Gasoline

BAU-a total

Weaker/stronger vehicle

efficiency standards could

mean under/over achieving

targets by up to 100 MtCO2

Results from scenario analysis

实际案例分析

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Marginal abatement cost curves

边际减排成本线

Cost per ton

CO2 reduction

减少每吨二氧化碳的成本

0

Annual CO2 reduction

年度二氧化碳减排

Negative cost

负成本

Low cost

低成本

High cost

高成本

• Analyse costs and emission reductions of different packages of measures

• Analyse interaction between different options

• Prioritize options in order of cost effectiveness

• 分析不同政策的减排量与相关成本

• 分析不同政策之间的相互联系

• 根据性价比排列政策效率

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UK road transport

英国道路交通

Used to develop UK’s Climate Change Act

英国《气候变化法案》已实施减排措施

混合动力

车辆

电动车辆

生物燃料

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W:

+44 (0)1235 753526

Gena.Gibson@ricardo-aea.com

www.ricardo-aea.com

Gena Gibson

Senior Consultant – Sustainable Transport