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22767 Reducing ODS Use by Developing Countries in Refrigeration OORG REFRIGERATION SECTOR WORKING GROUP OZONE OPERATIONS RESOURCE GROUP REPORTNUMBER1 OCTOBER 1992 FILE COPY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized

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Page 1: Developing Countries in Refrigeration...Findings Concerning Retrofitting Commercial Refrigeration Retrofits of CFC-12 equipment with HFC-134a are not possible in 'LDC's since they

22767

Reducing ODS Useby Developing Countries

in Refrigeration

OORGREFRIGERATION SECTOR WORKING GROUP

OZONE OPERATIONS RESOURCE GROUPREPORT NUMBER 1

OCTOBER 1992

FILE COPY

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Page 2: Developing Countries in Refrigeration...Findings Concerning Retrofitting Commercial Refrigeration Retrofits of CFC-12 equipment with HFC-134a are not possible in 'LDC's since they

Ozone Operations Resource Group(OORG)

REDUCING ODS USE BY DEVELOPING COUNTRIESIN REFRIGERATION

1. Background

The Ozone Operations Resource Group (OORG) was assembled by the World Bank to providespecialized sector-based technical advice and assistance to the Bank in fulfilling its role as one of the threeprincipal implementing agencies (with UNDP and UNEP) of the Multilateral Fund under the MontrealProtocol (MFMP). Within the context of the Bank's assistance to the developing countries to prepareCountry Programs and investment projects for the phase-out of ozone depleting substances (ODS), theOORG keeps the Bank apprised of applicable sector-specific technological advances, commerciallyavailable ODS substitutes, the cost-effectiveness of the various sectoral options, and related developments.The Refrigeration Working Group (OORG/RWG), a sub-group of the OORG, was convened to prepare anin-depth assessment of the present status of technological options in the refrigeration sector.'

As background for the discussion the Chairman, Dr. Lambert Kuijpers, prepared a paper, entitled,"Development Status of Substitute Technology for Refrigeration", for the Working Group's review andconsideration, which is appended as annex II of this report. A related paper, "Short-Medium Term Policyon the Reduction of the Use of Ozone Depleting substances in Refrigerator and Freezer Insulating Foam",summarizing the group's consensus view on refrigeration insulation applications, was prepared followingthe meeting by Dr. Mike Jeffs, OORG's foams sector expert, and is appended an Annex In.

2. Maior issues

During its deliberations, the RWG reviewed a number of key refrigeration issues, beginning with anoverview of the refrigeration conversion project preparation activities which have taken place in the pastyear. Particular attention was paid to four countries (Egypt,Tunisia, Turkey,and China) with refrigerationproject proposals under consideration at the time which raised a variety of overlapping questions for theOORG/RWG to address:

The First Ozone Operations Resource Group Refrigeration Working Group (OORG/RWG) Meetingwas convened in Washington, D.C., at World Bank headquarters, on Monday, September 28, 1992.The meeting was chaired by Dr. Lambert Kuijpers (Phillips Research Labs), Mr. Kent Anderson

(Intemational Institute of Ammonia Refrigeration), Mr. James F. Gordon (General ElectricAppliances), Dr. Poul Erik Hansen (Danfoss Flensburg, represented by Mr. Peter Steensen), Dr.Mike Jeffs (ICI Polyurethanes), Dr. Ing. H. Kruse (Hanover University), and Dr. KS. Sanvordenker(Tecumseh Products Co.). In addition to Bank representatives, a number of observers attendedincluding representatives from the Montreal Protocol Multilateral Fund Secretariat, UNEP, UNDP,USEPA, and industry.

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Licensing agreements

A review of the specifics of the projects in question indicated that a variety of different companies,different sized plants, varying technology suppliers, different companies manufacture or assemble onlyrefrigeration appliances (and purchase compressors from either other local companies or import fromforeign companies), while others may manufacture both compressors and appliances. Similarly, thesecompanies may contract licensing agreements with firms which manufacture only compressors, or withother firms which manufacture both compressors and refrigeration appliances. Thus, the variety of possiblearrangements is fairly broad: anywhere from a passive "wait and buy (from foreign manufacturer, after allthe outstanding issues are finally resolved)", to a licensing arrangement with a major internationalmanufacturing company for technology transfer, to a go it alone purchase of needed technology without alicensing agreement. For background, for instance, the Turkish Arcelik HFC-134a refrigeration conversionproject involves a pre-existing licensing arrangement for manufacturing compressors, with Tecumseh,whereas, the Egyptian MCMC HFC-134a refrigeration conversion project involves a different kind ofagreement with Whirlpool - Italia.

Technological Strategy

The most critical technology issue is one of strategy, and strategy in turn is a function of the statusof technological developments and a realistic estimation of the near-term dynamics of its evolution intocommercial viability. Companies in developing countries are wrestling right now with whether or not theyshould begin preparing technical people for the transition which they know already is on the way. Whatwill be the effect upon their current or future market share - at home or abroad? What is the likely timing ofexpected events, production commitments of the majors, etc.? Should they depend upon licenses or otherlegal agreements, consultants, themselves alone? What would technology transfer cost in each case? Whatimpacts do local conditions and differences have, such as the production environment, operatingtemperature extremes, or characteristic voltage variability? Or would it be safer to go with a transitionalrefrigerant such as HCFC-22, or a flammable one such as HFC-152a (the China case),when HFC-134a isstill an option on the way?

Phased Development?

In view of the evident uncertainties and risks, but aware of the opportunities for building in graterpreparedness now, does it make sense to consider a two-phased approach to development of the HFC-134aoption in some LDC's? The well known risks associated with the possibility of contamination of theproduction process, together with the uncertainties associated with any new production site about whatmaterials and/or residues might pass through the system, suggest that a wise policy might be one whichtackles these issues and solves them "just in time", to be prepared for the day when the "almostcommercially ready HFC-134a option" comes on stream globally.

Recycling and Recovery

In the recycling and recovery area, there are still some issues concerning the relative tradeoffs andadvisability of pursuing establishment of: (1) reclamation centers (Turkey); (2) relying upon service shopsfor reclamation (Turkey and Tunisia); or (3) emphasizing training to reduce losses (Tunisia). What are the

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Page 3

cost-effective limits of each option and will the transition to new refrigerants be compatible with sustainedrecycling and recovery operations?

3. Summary of findings

The primary purpose of the OORG/RWG deliberations was to consider each of the issues outlinedabove, in conjunction with the Chairman's discussion paper on the present status of refrigeration technology,and reach a consensus agreement on proven, commercially available technical ozone depletion substance(ODS) reducing options to provide guidance to the Bank and its Montreal Protocol task managers in theirproject development dialogues with client countries:

Findings on the Status of HFC-134a Use in Domestic Refrigeration

Status of the Technology:

Major compressor manufacturers have demonstrated through limited field trials that HFC-134acompressors are commercially ready for full scale production and that the product can bemanufactured reliably. And some manufacturers are prepared now to enter into licensingarrangements to begin to transfer the technology to LDCs.

* Existing licensing arrangements may already permit the transfer of initial HFC-134a designtechnology, however, in general they do not include guarantees for insuring the comprehensiveintegrity of the manufacturing process or the quality of the final product.

One of the reasons that domestic refrigeration appliance manufacturers in some countries (e.g.Germany) have been hesitating in terms of commercializing HFC-134a technology has beenbecause of uncertainties about the kind and quality of alternative foam insulation which will beused.

One reason that U.S. domestic refrigeration appliance manufacturers have been hesitating in termsof commercializing substitution technology, including HFC-134a technology, has been concernwith energy efficiency. Energy efficiency requirements have priority over reducing ODS emissionsin the U.S.

While it is clearly possible to qualify an HFC-134a compressor for domestic refrigerator productiona failed refrigerator can still result due to contaminants within the appliance manufacturing process.

It is the manufacturing process that must change in order to introduce HFC-134a technology in anyplant or country and manage the potential contamination risk, not the manufacturing equipment perse.

The contamination risk in any new production setting is not entirely predictable but requires anextended period (about 2 years, following approximately 1 year of design and initial testing ) ofmaterials testing, analysis, and evaluation in order to ensure that the technology transfer isultimately successful.

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It would be beneficial to HFC-134a technology transfer to have a long-lasting relationship with anestablished developed country manufacturer.

Recipient Governments and companies must be prepared to absorb and adapt the new technology.As noted earlier, a wise policy would be one which tackles these issues and solves them "just intime" to be prepared for the day when the "almost commercially ready HFC-134a option" comes onstream globally. The cost for making the transition to HFC-134a will depend in part upon priorexperience with CFC-12.

Timing of the Transition-

* German manufacturers have decided that the risks of adopting HFC-134a technology areacceptable, and in order to avoid the imposition of additional regulation, have decided to begincommercial production during 1993.

* the U.S. commitment is to complete full-scale commercial production using HFC-134a technologyby the end of 1995. Two years of field testing will be necessary to assure that the standard 5-yearwarranty on compressors is sustainable.

A.B. Electrolux and White Consolidated Industries are ready to assist the developing countries inbeginning the commercialization process now.

Findings Concerning the Status of HFC-134a Use in Domestic Refrigeration

Despite some claims to the contrary, there are no substantial verifiable differences in the energyefficiency of HFC-152a and HFC-134a, using the newest available technology. (USEPA, whichhas analyzed available studies, has concluded that efficiency advantages of HFC-152a have beendemonstrated.)

The major detrimental concern in developed countries is the flammability issue and its relationshipto the potentially high liability risk.

Four countries which discount liability risk due to flammability, HFC-152a is a viable alternative.

The transition to HFC-152a or HCFC-22 and HFC-152a blends would be technically easier toundertake than HFC-134a technology.

Findings Concerning Retrofitting CFC Chillers and Stationary Air Conditioning

With all retrofits it is essential to work directly with the relevant manufacturers.

Leak reduction is the easiest, least costly, and most likely way to reduce ODS emissions.

HCFC-22 chiller equipment can be designed for eventual conversion to ammonia.

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Page 5

Ammonia chiller equipment tends to cost 10 to 15% more than HCFC-22 equipment but canoperate at 3-5% higher energy efficiency.

Ammonia chillers are appropriate in the 500-1000 hp and above range, with screw compressors, inlarge buildings and plants.

CFC-12 centrifugal chillers, with remaining expected lifetimes of 7 or more years, should beretrofitted for use with HFC-134a, although the cost will be relatively high (30-40% of newequipment cost). For older model CFC-12 chillers, leak reduction is the appropriate path.

CFC-11 centrifugal chillers can be retrofitted to the use of HCFC-123, which particularly in thecase of non-hermetic systems, is relatively low in cost.

Regarding CFC- 11 centrifugal chiller retrofits, there are 3 additional observations resulting formwork reported to date:

(a) Maintenance of mechanical seals is critical to minimizing purge losses;(b) Cost of non-hermetic system retrofits to HCFC-123 ranges widely (5% to 50% of

investment), depending on individual considerations such as age, design, materials, etc.;(c) There will be a strong need to retrofit because the installed equipment base is 30 to 40

times larger than the current annual replacement capacity.

Findings Concerning Retrofitting Commercial Refrigeration

Retrofits of CFC-12 equipment with HFC-134a are not possible in 'LDC's since they do not havecommercial status yet.

Although it is possible to use HCFC-22, HCFC-22/HFC-142b, and other HCFC-22 based blends,not much is likely to be done in this area of retrofitting in LDC's due to severe constraints on theavailability of technology transfer expertise.

4. OORG "Definitive Recommendations" for ODS Reduction in Refrigeration

On the basis of the foregoing findings, including solicited comments and suggestions on the draftfrom an outside group of internationally recognized professional and industry associations within therefrigeration field, the OORG Refrigeration Working Group compiled a set of "DefinitiveRecommendations" for ODS reduction by developing countries in refrigeration.

The OORG/RWG "Definitive Recommendations" are presented in Annex I of this report.

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ANNEX 1Page 1

OORG Refrigeration Working Group(OORG/RWG)

DEFINITIVE RECOMMENDATIONSFor Reducing ODS Use by Developing Countries

in Refri2eration

General

(a) Good practice recovery and recycling,service practices and maintenance, supporting infrastructure,and training projects should be considered for implementation early on in all refrigeration and airconditioning sectors in developing countries.

(b) Recovery should be associated with effective arrangements for recycling or reclamation.

Domestic Appliances

New Eauipment:

(a) HFC-134a is the recommended alternative to CFC-12 in domestic refrigeration indeveloping countries.

(b) HFC-152a may be a viable alternative in countries which adequately address (i.e.incorporate culturally acceptable protection against predictable losses) the risks due toflammability.

(cl In cases where reliable HFC- 1 34a compressors are already available (whether domesticallyor imported), the emphasis should be on technical reliability and sustainable performancestandards of local production processes of the respective appliances.

(d) Compressor and/or appliance manufacturing process control for HFC-134a is critical,which may require additional investments that should qualify for funding under theMontreal Protocol.

(e) Conversion to HFC-134a-based new refrigeration equipment production in a developingcountry should be phased, with the first phase encompassing pilot production, withemphasis on reliability.

(f) Effective HFC-134a technology transfer is of utmost importance and should be within theframework of existing working relationships _ agreements with technology suppliersestablished for this purpose.

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ANNEX IPage 2

Foams:

(g) High priority should be given to CFC phase-out in rigid foams for refrigerator insulation.

Retrofits:

(h) Retrofitting of existing domestic refrigeration equipment with non-ODS substances is notyet regarded as a viable option.

Commercial/IndustriaVlTransport Refri2eration Sector

New Equipment:

(a) HCFC-22 can be considered as a replacement for CFC-12 and some R-502 (lowtemperature) semi-hermetic equipment.

(b) New HCFC-22 installations should not be delayed pending development of alternativessince the retrofit capital costs of drop-in substitute alternatives is expected to be minimal,and that HFC-134a is acceptable for medium temperature applications but not for lowtemperature applications.

(c) Ammonia needs to be seriously considered for new large cold storage and industrialrefrigeration equipment installations.

Retrofits:

(d) CFC-12 equipment should be retrofitted with HCFC-22, subject to cost-effectiveness, andHFC-134a retrofits should be used once commercially proven.

(e) Retrofits of R-502 equipment to HCFC-22, should be applied, and also to HCFC-22 blendswhen commercially available.

Air Conditionin2z & Chillers

New Equipment:

(a) HFC- 134a, HCFC- 123, and HCFC-22 should all be regarded as viable alternatives for newchiller equiprnent.

(b) Ammonia is also a viable alternative for chillers, especially for large plants, whereappropriate and commercially available.

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ANNEX 1Page 3

Retrofits:

(c) HCFC- 123 should be accepted as the pure fluid replacement for CFC- II in centrifugalequipment, provided that low emission standards are in place and sustainable.

(d) HFC-134a retrofits are possible, but costly. and dependent upon the age of existingequipment.

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ANNEX IIPage 1

The World Bank OORG Meeting September 1992Position Paper for Discussion at the OORG Refrigeration Group Meeting,

Washington D.C., 28 September/ I October 1992

DEVELOPMENT STATUS OFSUBSTITUTE TECHNOLOGY FOR REFRIGERATION

Kuijpers, LJM (OORG)Eindhoven, 1992 09 07

RVVR-570-LK-924 19-Lk

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ANNEX IIPage 2

Contents

1. Domestic Refrigeration SectorNew EquipmentRetrofitsDeveloping Countries/ Technology Transfer

2. Commercial/Industrial/Transport Refrigeration SectorNew EquipmentRetrofitsDeveloping Countries/ Technology Transfer

3. Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps SectorNew EquipmentRetrofitsDeveloping Countries/ Technology Transfer

4. Concluding Remarks

5. Questions/Guidelines for Discussion

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ANNEX IIPage 3

Introduction

Refrigeration technology is undergoing a continuous development process to accommodatesubstitutes for the CFCs including R-502 (and for I-HCFC-22 in the longer term). Developingcountries are mostly interested in applying the same substitutes as those used in the developedcountries. It is only in this way that they can pursue further improvements proposed -by developedcountry manufacturers- for the equipment in the future; otherwise they would be obliged to followtheir own path, which might be an opportunity, but probably will be a disadvantage.

In the developing countries there is an emphasis on domestic refrigeration, which is a rapidlygrowing sector in most of these countries. However, in order to come to an accelerated phaseout inthe developing countries, other sectors have to be considered as well.

The purpose of this position paper is to be a guideline for discussion on the status of technology inthe different refrigeration sectors. Critical points are the transfer of technology, whether and whenthis could bc done, on the feasibility of retrofit technologies, and on the eligibility or certain criteriafor support from the INMOF Fund (Interim Multilateral Ozone Fund).

The different sectors will be considered separately in this paper.

1. Domestic Refrigeration Sector

The domestic sector is the sector that is most discussed when it concerns a rapid reduction in theconsumption of CFCs in the developing countries.

And it is the domestic refrigeration industry that is one of the most difficult sectors for the introduction ofCFC substitutes maintaining the reliability of CFC- 12. This is due to:

the high stability requirements put to the refrigerant

the extreme lubricant property requirements (regarding viscosity versus temperature relationship andsolubility of refrigerant as a function of the temperature)

the widely varying inner and outer temperature conditions

the high reliability requirements and necessity for low service calls.

With time, the domestic product based on CFC- 12 has evaluated to a degree of reliability which can only beduplicated" -for a substitute refrigerant- by sufficient amounts of time for optimization in the development.More reactive substances (such as the new lubricants or refrigerants) automatically imply less durability orrequire a much higher degree of cleanliness in the production than manufacturers have experienced so far.

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ANNEX IIPage 4

Compressor manufacturers have generally reported favorable thermodynamic properties of the HFC-134arefrigerant and difficulties in the selection of an appropriate lubricant. They also report less stability forother refrigerants than HFC-134a (such as HFC-152a or hydrocarbons). The fact that domestic products atthe same time have to meet efficiency standards and are in continuous discussion with regulatory bodiesmakes an acceptable conversion to a new refrigerant more difficult. This in particular when the newrefrigerant (HFC- 1 34a) has an efficiency which is comparable to but not higher than CFC- 12.

The discussion of the use of flammable refrigerants, such as HFC-152a or hydrocarbons, to which often abetter efficiency is ascribed to, has not led to a breakthrough. Partly this is due to flammability questions anaspect which is difficult to solve, partly also to the fact that the higher thermodynamic efficiency could notbe shown in practical circumstances.

1.1. New Equipment

The status of the technology at the compressor manufacturers is that virtually all manufacturers in thedeveloped world state that they have reached the status that they can provide f compressors, optimnized orHFC-134a and of good reliability, by the end of 1992. Although the status reached is more or less maturefor commercialization, no commercial production takes place because the appliance manufacturers (all overthe world) are not ready to commercialize their products at this moment. This, on its turn, leads to theconsequence that compressor manufacturers can only produce HFC-134a compressors batchwise, togetherwith CFC-12 compressors, which is stated to yield quality problems in the production process.

The appliance manufacturers state that they are still not ready because

they still observe (small) compatibility problems in the functioning of the appliance. This is stated tobe due either to compressor problems (the evidence is difficult to obtain) or to certain noncontrollableor unknown phenomena occurring in appliance manufacturing (evaporator manufacturing,manufacturing and cleaning procedures)

they intend to offer a CFC-Free appliance (both for the circuit and for the insulation), where the foamdevelopment (mostly for HCFC-141b) has so far also not been completed. Introduction of non-CFCappliances is therefore. Differences exist in regulations of certain countries (e.g. Germany with avoluntary phaseout by I/ 1/94 and the US with probably 1/1/96), where the most stringent regulationwill determine what will happen globally.

they tend to use as much time as possible for field testing to "maximize" reliability. Due to the factthat most refrigerator manufacturers normally give their customers a five year warrantee onbreakdowns, they fear enormous Financial complications in case breakdowns will occur a couple ofyears after production of OEM (when a large number of appliances will be on the market that will thenneed additional servicing). Appliance manufacturers all over the world (mostly the developedcountries) have large numbers of appliances in field test. It is not so much the optimization of thecircuit (cap tube and charge optimization) that is being studied, but the reliability of certain productionprocesses.

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ANNEX IIPage 5

Concluding, the introduction of appliances on HFC- 134a will take place by 1993/94 (slightly dependent onthe continent/country in a first instance), whether or not all problems are assumed to be "under control", butmainly driven by national regulations. It is logical that specific information will not bc in the publicdomain, since virtually every manufacturer expects to be obliged to study further improvements. It isdifficult to estimate when this information would be available.

From 1993, both compressor and appliance manufacturers will be -to a certain degreeable or obliged@totransfer technology to other firms (in particular when it concerns licensees).

1.2. Retrofits

In the developed countries, retrofits of a CFC-12 refrigerator will not be important in the future. With avery low degree of service calls, it will concern a small amount of refrigerators that will have functioningproblems after that the CFC phaseout has entered into force. To a large degree these appliances will besimply disposed of.

However, basically there exist several options for a retrofit:

(a) In principle CFC-12 appliances could be retrofitted with a mixture of hydrocarbons (propane,isobutane) that provides comparable capacity to CFC-12 (as long as CFC-12 compressors are used).However, the high flammability plus the extra risk when these substances are used in servicing(welding, soldering) makes this option at least less desirable and actually unacceptable at this moment.Apart from these aspects, the efficiency of the system will be generally lowered.

(b) Certain appliances could bc retrofitted with a blend of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b (appliances musthave a refrigerator compartment). It would require a compressor with a HCFC-22 miscible (synthetic)lubricant (this may imply a lubricant change in case or a CFC-12 compressor). The efficiency willgenerally be lower compared to the original CFC-12 system.

(c) Appliances could be retrofitted with the (Dupont) blend of HCFC-22, HFC-152a and HCFC-124 thathas comparable capacity to CFC-12. However (in particular in case of CFC-12 compressors), it wouldalso require a lubricant change. No severe requirements are put to the percentage of mineral oil thatremains in the system (it should be less than 15-20%). The blend should bc available at short notice(depends on the availability of HCFC-124 and its to@city test results). The energetic efficiency of thesystem will be mostly lower (0-15% dependent on evaporation and condensation temperature ranges).

The latter option is the best retrofit option so far (for developed and developing countries). Some doubtsexist regarding the stability of [IF(:-152a under extreme conditions, but these can be avoided in the normalretrofit cases.

Retrofitting with pure HFC- 134a is impossible (refrigerant capacity arid lubricant problems). It may bethat, in the long term, lubricants for HFC(134a will be developed that will permit retrofits (including athorough lubricant exchange). Still, it would also require a compressor exchange due to the misfit of therefrigeration capacity (and a cap tube exchange for maintaining efficiency levels). Whenever possible, aHFC-134a retrofit will be less preferable.

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ANNEX IIPage 6

1.3. Developing Countries/ Technology Transfer

The servicing of domestic refrigerators is an important aspect in many developing countries that mostlyconsume an unexpected high amount of CFC-12. This is not due to overcharging, but due to the fact thatCFC-12 is used for leak testing, purging and flushing. Savings in the order of 75-80% will be certainlypossible when leak testing is done carefully, nitrogen is being used etc. Of course, there remains a residualdemand for CFC-12 but it can be considerably decreased compared to present day needs (as an example, inTurkey, 25% of the national CFC consumption is used for charging domestic refrigerator circuits, 9% forOEM and 14% for used equipment; I kg of CFC- 12 is used in the charging of used equipment).

It is often considered to use recovery machines in the workshops; one can find a wide variety ofcost-efficiency calculations. However, there is a big interaction between training, good practice, andminimizing needs for CFC-12 for uses other than the charging. In the end, it should turn out that recovery isonly useful regarding the CFC-12 that can be found in the refrigerators that need to be serviced (whets50@o of the appliances does not contain significant amounts of refrigerant, due to leakage). Cost efficiencycalculations should therefore be carefully considered. The whole servicing operation should be moreinstitutionalized, together with the servicing of commercial equipment (see appendix as an example).

As to retrofits of domestic refrigerators. As long as CFC-12 will be available, it should be used forservicing domestic refrigerators, not for other refrigeration equipment where retrofitting may be easier (seebelow). Charging the appliance with hydrocarbons, in case they even have the correct capacity, should beavoided at this moment (in future with different designs, it might become more feasible). Retrofitting twocompartment refrigerators with the HCFC-22/-142b blend could be done, but asks for careful analysis andtesting to maintain the characteristic performance of the appliance. In case of the three component blendbeing available, this will be the best option for a retrofit of a domestic refrigerator. Therefore, not so thatafter a global CFC-12 phaseout in the future, appliances have to be necessarily disposed of in case they needservicing.

Developing country refrigerator manufacturers feel the urgent need to convert their refrigerator/freezer (andpossible in-house compressor production) to HFC-134a, the only globally accepted and studied substitutefor CFC-12 in new equipment.

In case (in the developing countries) it concerns affiliates of manufacturers in the developed worldtechnology transfer and HFC-134a production will keep up pace with all developments in thedeveloped world.

In case of a full licensee contract, technology transfer will also take place automatically. It remains tobe investigated whether the normal license contract provides the information flow necessary. If not,extra costs should be considered as incremental and should be eligible for funding. Nevertheless, incase of these license contracts, it concerns a one-direction flow of information on redesigns, lubricantsto be used etc. Specific conditions in the production process and particular components, developed bythe licensee, may require extra development, testing, and field testing for which extra equipment willbe needed. It is difficult to estimate what would be the extra costs, much depends on the specificlicense contract and the interaction between the partners.

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ANNEX lIPage 7

In case of no contracts or contacts with manufacturers that have been studying, c.q. developingHFC-134a products, one could in principle decide to start a full test, predevelopment, developmentand field testing program. If the technical expertise and the equipment necessary is available, it will-at maximum- result in re-invention of the " wheel", the reliable HIFC-134a refrigerator product.However, there is a big uncertainty if one tries to establish the time needed to come to this reliableproduct (a development with a certain risk, without a possible positive spin-off; in principle morecertainty should be built into such a program).

In case of a manufacturer without licensing or cooperation contracts the following can be statedregarding costs. As an example, in case of a reference production of 500,000 pieces (compressors andappliances) certain guidelines for the cost could be derived. An amount of about USD 25 per kg ofCFC- 12 phased OLIT could be used for the conversion of a compressor production line to HFC- 1 34a,the same amount could be used for the conversion of an appliance to use HFC- 134a technology.

For the reference production, assuming 200 g of CFC-12 used per appliance, it would imply investments inthe order of USD 5 million. However, this amount is no linear function of the volumes produced; it dependson the production per "standard line" for which the "standard" investments would be needed. More data arebeing searched for regarding the amount involved (it will also depend upon the amount of equipment al-ready available at a manufacturer).

The above amount implies the development and commercialization of compressors and appliances in-house.Experience learns that this procedure does not guarantee a successful commercialization within a given

timeframe. Use of parts of the costs (less equipment, less active technology acquisition by the developingcountry experts) for paying technology and knowledge transfer from manufacturers that have converted willlower the risk. It needs to be derived what will be the investments needed for an effective and low riskconversion (both in equipment and in regulated technology transfer).

Technology transfer consists of the transfer of knowledge in written form and in the exchange of expertisebetween technical experts. Taking into account that virtually all manufacturers in the developed world arestill finalizing the development stage or starting up the commercialization phase, it will be clear that nodeveloped country experts will be available for on-site technology transfer until 1994/195. It needsevaluation- at short notice how this technology transfer can be shaped (visits and courses given at"developed" manufacturers sites, cooperation of certain developing country manufacturers etc.).

Once the full conversion at one manufacturer in a developing country is financed, this process could berepeated numerous times. In order to be efficient, a structure has to be developed for assistance ofmanufacturers that have not converted, while many in the developing have already done so (technicalcooperations of certain industries, cashflow models if needed etc.).

2. CommerciaVIndustrialfIransport Refrigeration Sector

For a long time, the commercial and transport refrigeration sector has applied CFC-12, HCFC-22, andR-502 for low temperature applications in the recent past, averaged over the globe, the majority of the

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ANNEX nPage 8

equipment was on CFC-12. For cold storage and industrial systems, the use of ammonia has also beenpropagated and it is strongly increasing at present. There are three major variables involved:

size of the systemevaporation temperaturesvariations in public access.

This sector consumes the larger part of refrigerants of all refrigeration sectors in all developed countries,due to the fact that the commercial and transport sector is characterized by a much higher need for servicing.Estimates from various sources mention amounts of 40 to 60% of the original charge that is used forservicing per year. It is estimated that servicing amounts will be strongly reduced in the near future for newequipment, and that significant improvements will be carried out where it concerns existing equipment.

In certain countries (such as Germany) regulations have already phased out CFCs in equipment that containslarge amounts of CFCs. This is one of the driving forces behind the commercial refrigeration switch toHCFC-22 for medium/low evaporation temperatures, and to HFC-134a and polyester lubricants formedium/high temperatures. However, HCFC-22 can only be an intermediate solution since various nationalgovernments have already decided on phaseout. Replacements that are based on mixtures with comparablecapacities to R-502 are being used in field tests; these mixtures are based on HCFC-22 and a chemical thatlowers discharge temperatures (such as FC- 218 in the R69S refrigerant).

In almost every country the efficiency of the equipment is not subject to regulations, a reason thatmanufacturers have not considered other refrigerants than HFC-134a (such as HFC-152a) and haveproceeded their development. Lubricant compatibility problems were not emphasized that much due to thefact that servicing is normal, and that problems such as capillary tube plugging (as in domestic refrigerators)do not occur here. Compressor and equipment manufacturers have generally reported good thermodynamicproperties of the HFC-134a refrigerant in the medium evaporation temperature range and cleaner operationof HFC-134a and polyester lubricants compared to CFC-12. HFC-134a equipment can therefore beconsidered as mature, in particular for smaller size equipment (up to 10 k W).

HCFC-22 equipment has been on the market for years and can be considered a good alternative for CFC-12.Two stage equipment has entered the market for low temperature applications, and shows favorablethermodynamic efficiencies compared to R-502 equipment.

For R-502 a number of mixtures consisting of three components have been developed and are either in fieldtest (mixtures based upon HCFC-22) or are being evaluated in manufacturer test programs (e.g. a mixture ofHFC-125, -143a and -134a). However, commercialization of the latter will still take considerable time sincethe availability is still marginal and toxicity testing programs have not been finalized.

Ammonia equipment has been on the market a long time, especially where it concerns larger units. Use ofammonia is dependent on the access of the public to the system. For smaller (commercial) units, theammonia technology is being evaluated and field tested, however, it is not commercialized.

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2.1. New Equipment

The status of the technology at the compressor manufacturers is that virtually all manufacturers in thedeveloped world can provide compressors, optimized for HFC-134a and of good reliability. Compressorsfor HCFC-22 are viable alternatives for a wide range of temperatures. In case both HFC-134a andHCFC-22 can be used, preference is given to HFC-134a, since HCFC-22 will be phased out in severalcountries in the mid term (however, only for new equipment, by the end of this decade). Thermodynamicefficiency is dependent on the evaporation temperatures applied; for the medium range, HFC-134a showsfavorable characteristics.

New equipment for low temperature applications based on R-502 substitutes is not mature forcommercialization. However, since also R-502 will be phased out by the middle of the decade (1995-96) noequipment on R-502 is being sold in the developed countries anymore.

Ammonia technology exists and is commercially applied to large refrigeration units. As far as itsthermodynamic efficiency is concerned, ammonia is superior to the HFC or HCFC substitutes. However, incase new systems, for reasons of safety, when there is public access, apply secondary loops, the efficiencymay be decreased; it will still be comparable to the efficiency of the CFC system it replaces.

The technology for manufacturing HFC-134a compressors and equipment is partly proprietary (mostly forcompressors) and partly in the public domain where it concerns the building of equipment (due to theinfrastructure).

It is estimated that both compressor and equipment manufacturers will be able to transfer technology toothers.

2.2. Retrofits

In contrast to domestic refrigerators, retrofits of CFC-12 equipment are important in this sector, in particulardue to the much higher investments involved; the same, of course, holds for R-502 equipment. In case itconcerns older equipment with a relatively high leakage and high servicing needs, the replacement by newequipmentis a logical consideration.

There exist several options for a retrofit of CFC-12 equipment:

Certain equipment could be retrofitted with a blend of HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b, although this is aless preferred option. It would require a compressor with a HCFC-22 miscible (synthetic) lubricant(this may imply a lubricant change in case of a CFC-12 compressor).

Equipment could be retrofitted with the (Dupont) blend of HCFC-22, HFC-152a and HCFC-124 thathas comparable capacity to CFC-12 However, it would also require a lubricant change. No severerequirements are put to the percentage of mineral oil that remains in the system (it should be less than15-20%). The blend should be available at short notice (depends on the availability of HCFC-124 andits toxicity test results). The energetic efficiency can range from lower to higher compared to theoriginal CFC-12 system, dependent on evaporation and condensation temperatures.

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Retrofits from CFC-12 to HCFC-22 arc possible, but require substantial modifications, since at leastthe compressor and the expansion valve have to be exchanged. It is a less preferable option, although,it is the only possibility in case it concerns lower temperature applications (where the application ofHFC-134a is not useful).

Retrofitting with pure HFC-134a has become a feasible option in most developed countries. It willrequire compressor adaptation. The procedure followed is that the system is emptied and run with anew charge of HFC-134a and polyester lubricant for a certain amount of time. Having repeated thisthree times, the percentage of mineral oil that has remained in the system should be less than 1%, sothat no further problems are expected and the system is considered reliable. This procedure is stillquite costly.

The HFC-134a is the retrofit that should be preferred. In case it concerns low temperature equipment, aretrofit from CFC-12 to HCFC-22 could be considered.

2.3. Developing Countries/ Technology Transfer

The servicing of commercial/transport equipment is also being carried out in developing countries, mostlyby small contractors. It often concerns older equipment, with a high emission rate; in this case, a switch tonew equipment could be considered. It will also depend on the type of the equipment (low or mediumtemperatures) whether new equipment should be installed now.

Retrofits to HCFC-22 could be done (and are already common practice in a number of cases). Retrofits toHFC-134a may also still be too difficult due to a lack of material available or due to a lack of training(technology transfer). They need further evaluation in the case of developing countries.

It should be considered to use recovery machines in the workshops and/or in the field. A first requirement istraining and education in this case. In case workshops service commercial/transport equipment, acombination with the servicing of domestic refrigerators should be taken into account. It would beadequate in a developing country phaseout program to organize these workshops, install a standard trainingand certification of engineers (or contractors). Set up of this organization should be subject of discussionwith the implementing agencies UNEP and maybe UNDP (where TJNFP is already planning a first trainingworkshop in December 1992; maybe this training could result in a manual that could be used globally. Forthis reason involvement of the International Institute of refrigeration is planned). As an example, theproposed organization for Ghana (UNEP Country program) is given in the appendix.

Different types of countries exist with regard to this refrigeration sector:

Users onlv. Compressors and equipment for the CFC substitutes will be automatically provided. Thisalso applies to equipment functioning on ammonia. Although ammonia is a commonly appliedrefrigerant, the equipment will be more expensive compared to CFC-12 equipment. Higher costsshould be eligiblefor funding.

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ANNEX IIPage II

Non-exporting manufacturers using imported compressors. Technology transfer/knowledge is beingprovided by the compressor manufacturer. It is not known how efficient the information network isregarding the design and the use of equipment for H FC- I 34a. One should be careful if componentsare procured from some source that is not accessible for upgrade changes.

Manufacturers of compressors and equipment for domestic use and exports. For this case, the sameremarks as for domestic refrigeration apply. However, it can be assumed that most of themanufacturers are affiliates or work under close license contracts with manufacturers in the developedworld. Conversion of a production from CFC-12 to HFC-134a will be in the same order of costs(USD 25 per kg of CFC phased out). Due to the larger refrigerant content per system, costs will be inthe order of USD 1 million for a production volume in the order of 10 to 20,000 pieces per year.

Concluding, technology transfer is a more "automatic" phenomenon for new equipment in this sector.However, extra costs may still be involved, which should be eligible for funding. Technology transfer forretrofits is something that is much more difficult to define. Next to manufacturers, information networksbetween refrigeration associations in different countries could also play an important role here.

Due to a lack of "case studies", this area needs further refinement regarding equipment and technologytransfer costs, that would be eligible for funding-

3. Air Conditioning and Heat Pumps Sector

Systems directly cooling air range from a couple of kW to over 400 kW. Many of them can be reversed todirectly provide heating. Direct cooling and heating systems include small packaged room air conditioners,split systems, ducted systems and larger installations cooling public places. While CFC-12 was stillcommonly used until 10-15 years ago in small room air conditioners, virtually everything built today in thisdirect cooling and heating sector today uses HCFC-22. The typical equipment life can be down to no morethan 10 or 15 years.

Systems providing chilled water for air conditioning range from about 7 to 35,000 kW. Positivedisplacement compressors (using HCFC-22) range to 6000 kW (where there are also screw compressorsused). Centrifugals range from 350 to over 35,000 kW. Here the lower end traditionally used CFC-l 1;about 80% of all chillers operated all over the world, use CFC-1 I as a refrigerant. The mid-range capacityused CFC-12 and the top end used HCFC-22 with a significant amount of overlap. The equipment ismarked by a very long life expectancy, 25 to 30 years not being uncommon.

Heat pumps for heating only used to run on a variety of refrigerants, also determined by the condensationtemperature. Refrigerants which can be mentioned are CFC-l 1 and -12, HCFC-22.

3.1. New Equipment

Air to air equipment (smaller units) is being manufactured for HCFC-22 and it will remain that way for acertain amount of time to come. At present it is not clear what alternative for HCFC-22 will gain the

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ANNEX HPage 12

ascendancy in the mid to long term. For certain applications HFC-134a will be a reasonably goodalternative (mid term).

For larger (central) systems, the industry had proposed to move away from CFCs by replacing them withHCFC-123 and HCFC-134a. Also HCFC-141b has been proposed as a replacement for CFC-1 1 here. Andin fact, both new and retrofitted systems run on HCFC-123 today (operation being supported by e.g. the USEPA).

Generally, a tendency can be observed to manufacture new chillers on HCFC-22 and in particular onHFC-134a (and less on HCFC-123), down to 1000 kW. Also ammonia chillers receive more and moreattention, but it is often so that building codes are mentioned as being prohibitive for the installation orammonia chillers. The low cost for ammonia and its better thermodynamic efficiency are favorable aspects.

A search is being done for other replacement candidates for CFC- I 1, but this can only be considered for thelong term (HFC 200 series, HFC-356) and should not be further considered here.

3.2. Retrofits

* Retrofits of HCFC-22 air to air equipment should not be discussed here. It is still far too early to considerfeasible options.

Retrofits of CFC- 12 chillers to a blend of HCFC-22 and -1 42b has been proposed and is being done atcertain places; no further comments are so far available.

Retrofit of CFC-12 chillers for the use of HFC-134a is being done; it is a costly operation which should becarefully considered. It requires the replacement of impeller and/or gearbox and a thorough cleaningof the circuit so that polyester oils can be used (see under commercial refrigeration). Some desiccantsor other materials commonly used in CFC- 12 systems are not compatible with HFC- 1 34a.

CFC-12 (and R-500) chillers could be retrofitted with the (Dupont) ternary blend of refrigerants. Althoughthe mixture is compatible with the conventional (synthetic) refrigeration oils, the mixture is likely tohave degraded heat transfer performance (figures of 10% being mentioned); this is a significantperformance penalty which makes this retrofit less likely.

The servicing/retrofit of CFC-11 chillers that is recommended is the switch to HCFC-123. It requireschange or certain components in order to avoid compatibility problems with HCFC-123. Electricmotors need to be replaced because they will show compatibility problems and -in case of high voltagemotors- problems due to the low dielectric strength of HCFC-123.

The system capacity will be reduced by 0 to 20%, the efficiency will be decreased by at least 2%. Theretrofit to HCFC-141b will involve the same actions, since both refrigerants are comparable.

3.3. Developing countries/ Technology Transfer

For developing countries, the HCFC-22 air to air equipment is not being considered here. As to developingcountries that are involved in chiller installations, they can be principally divided in (*) users only, and (**)

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contractors that build the equipment using imported compressors. In both cases, the manufacturers of thecompressors are very much involved in the design of an installation, the maintenance and the possibleretrofit. It is assumed that this is already an effective technology transfer.

Retrofit costs to phaseout the use of CFCs (with careful considerations regarding the lifetime of theequipment and/or whether the lifetime of the equipment is being extended after the retrofit) should inprinciple be eligible for funding.

The servicing of chillers should be considered in so far whether practices can be significantly improved,leading to substantial savings. Partly this involves training and education, but also the use of recovery (andrecycle) equipment. However, in contrast to smaller refrigeration equipment, servicing is always doneon-site. Next to the involvement of the manufacturers, tasks for a refrigeration (engineer) society can beclearly defined (a course on good practice in the servicing of chillers has recently been organized inMexico). Furthermore, the appendix gives suggestions, derived from the Ghana country program.

4. Concluding Remarks

It has been outlined for the different refrigeration and air conditioning sectors what the substitute options fornew equipment and for retrofits are. An important substitute for new equipment in all sectors is HFC-134a.However, HCFC-22 fulfills an important task as an intermediate for all but the domestic sector. For the

replacement of other refrigerants (such as R-502) mixtures of refrigerants are being proposed. Apart fromammonia in chillers and in (small) industrial equipment, no flammable refrigerants are seriously considered.

In the developed countries, retrofits of domestic refrigerators are not being considered. Retrofits toHFC-134a are possible in the commercial and air conditioning (heat pump) sector, but they are still costlyand further development is still taking place. Developing countries can significantly cut back on their CFCconsumption in refrigeration by improving practices and by the introduction of recovery equipment. The setup of an efficient network of servicing workshops (combined with education and training, use ofcertificates) needs to be mentioned. Funding of developments in developing countries applies to theconversion to HFC- 134a in the domestic sector, to HCFC-22 and HFC-134a in the commercial andindustrial sector, and to substitutes in the air conditioning sector. For the latter two sectors, ammonia shouldalso be seriously considered.

A possible network for technology transfer will be quite different for the different sectors. In the domesticarea, support will be needed from developed country manufacturers to guarantee a successful conversion toa reliable product, next to normal license and cooperation contacts. Funding is still subject to accuratedefinitions.In the commercial sector, it will be both compressor and equipment manufacturers and refrigerationsocieties that should guarantee the technology transfer. It is difficult to precisely define what will be thecosts eligible for funding.

In the air conditioning sector, technology transfer for new equipment operation can be more easily defined.Some questions exist regarding the technology transfer for retrofits. The funding of non CFC developmentsdoes not seem to be subject to very complicated phenomena.

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For the latter two sectors, where commercial has a far larger scale, a design for training using "standardized"institutes and training manuals should be considered. Whether this should be coordinated by theimplementing agencies, certain national governments or e.g. the International Institute of Refrigeration andits national affiliates, needs further consideration.

For the implementing agencies (such as the World bank for investment projects), questions that need to beconsidered, although preliminary standpoints have already been formulated:

What can be invested in R&D, i.e. predevelopment for the conversion of CFC-12 to HFC-134arefrigerators (and compressors)?

Will it be needed to define incremental costs for a exporting developing manufacturer (to thedeveloped versus to other developing countries)?

What are the incremental costs for recovery and recycle if there is an effective network for technologytransfer available?

It is the purpose of the meeting to come to a more precise definition of what should be the necessarytechnology transfer, to define the organization and to make it effective, and to a discuss extra costs involvedin conversion of production and in retrofits.

5. Questions/ Guidelines for Discussion

(a) When will be the global commercialization of HFC-134a compressors for domestic products in thedeveloped world ?

(b) Idem, for HFC- I 34a domestic appliances ?

(c) When do the license contracts that exist between developed and developing countries provide theknowledge necessary for the conversion to HFC- 1 34a compressor production for domestics ?

(d) Does the HFC-134a technology fall under the normal license contract or is extra financing required?

(e) What is the cost of the HFC-134a for domestic appliances per kg of CFC-12 phased out, for a typicalproduction line ? Is the amount of USD 50 for both compressors and appliances a reasonable estimate ?

(f) Is there specific equipment needed for the development of HFC-134a appliances (compared toadequate CFC-12 development) ? This means, will it be needed to substantially invest in test andField test equipment compared to CFC-12 ?

(g) What is and should be the (mandatory) exchange of knowledge between different manufacturers in thedeveloping countries, once they have all started to convert to HFC- 1 34a ?

(h) Does one need to support all developments on a case by case basis, or can developments, also from afinancial point of view, be intercorrelated ?

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(i) Who is going to actively do the technology transfer in the different sectors ? When will pools ofexperts be available and what should be the kind of organization ?

(j) In the commercial sector, what would be the conversion costs to HFC-134a (compared to HCFC-22)on a per kg basis ?

(k) Conversion to HCFC-22 has already been done lots of times in the commercial sector. Is there a needfor additional technology transfer and what would be the eligible costs ?

(1) At what stage retrofits to HFC-134a in the commercial sector should be transferred to a developingcountry ? Is it mature (financially spoken) at present ? For central air conditioning units, this is moreclear.

(m) In central air conditioning, do licensing and cooperation contacts provide enough interaction and techtransfer already ?

(n) Recovery and recycle procedures arc eligible for funding. What kind of organization should bepreferred for training ? Two or three standardized centers in the developed world (which could bevisited by experts from the developing countries for one or two months each) and courses and trainingon-site ? Are there other forms

(o) Is the institutionalization as proposed for Ghana a good template?

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SHORT-MEDIUM TERM POLICY ON THE REDUCTION OF THE USE OFOZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES IN REFRIGERATOR AND FREEZER

INSULATING FOAM

Dr. G.M.F. Jeffs - OORGICI Polyurethanes October 1992

SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATION

The manufacture of domestic refrigerators and freezers is a global industry. It uses about 30 kte of ODS(CFC 11) in the polyurethane insulating foam in these units. In the developed world technology based onHCFCs is being implemented over the period 1992-1995. There are still several uncertainties with thistechnology and it is not ready to implement in developing countries. Several developed world marketsswitched to "reduced CFC-11" foam technology as early as 1989 and this technology is now relativelymature.

It is recommended that programs to convert the refrigerator and freezer factories in developing countries toreduce CFC 11 foam technology be instigated, approved and implemented as soon as possible. When fullyimplemented this policy would save the use of approximately 6 kte of CFC 11 per year at current productionlevels.

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

The annual production of domestic refrigerators and freezers has reached 55 million units. More than 99%use polyurethane rigid foam as an integral part of their construction because of its benefits of insulation,structural strength and processing versatility. Production has been established in more than 75 countries,many of which are classified as Article V States.

Polyurethane consumption in these unites is about 290 kte, or about 5 kg per unit. CFC 11 content in thefoam varies by region. In W. Europe reduced CFC formulations containing 6 parts by weight (pbw) CFC 11have been in use since early 1989. These replaced formulations which contained 12 pbw CFC 11 which arestill common in other regions. In some factories in the USA formulations with higher CFC 11 contents arein use.

The formulations in sue in developing countries generally contain 12 pbw CFC- 11, or about 600 gm perunit. This does not allow for wastage and is significantly lower than usage figures quoted in several countryreports. Refrigerator and freezer production in these countries is estimated to be 10 million units using atotal of about 12 kept of CFC 11 per year.

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TECHNOLOGY FOR CFC 11 REDUCTION AND ELIMINATION

The technology road map to zero ODP foams is:

CFC 1 -- > reduced CFC 1 ---> HCFC ---> HFC

Points for consideration are:

Reduced CFC 11 has been established in W. Europe since 1989 and in other developed countrymarkets since then.

HCFC technology is now being implemented in developed country markets in the time frame:

W. Europe 1992-1994USA & Japan 1993-1995

This is fast track technology implementation for application in durable goods with an expectedlifetime of 15-20 years and several uncertainties remain.

HFC technology is at the research and development stage. There are current inadequacies, such as thethermal conductivity which is too high. Earliest implementation is in the latter part of the decade.

Based on this analysis, HCFC technology will not be ready for implementation in most developingcountries until about 1997/1998 when the experience gained in developed countries will ensure thatthe technology can be effectively and economically transferred.

PROPOSED POLICY

It is proposed that projects be developed and implemented to establish reduced CFC-l technology indeveloped markets as a mater of urgency.

Potential savings in CFC 11 usage are about 6 kte per year. Examples of savings in developing counties aregiven in the Appendix.

PROS AND CONS OF APPLYING REDUCED CFC 11 TECHNOLOGY

In its favor are:

Savings of about 6 kte CFC 11 per year.

Proven technology of low risk.

Drop-in existing processing equipment giving low incremental costs.

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No changes required in cabinet design.

Experience has shown that foam performance is comparable to "full" CFC-11 technology and iswithin manufacturing tolerance.

Relatively quickly implemented.

Technology change provides a good training experience.

Against its use are:

Still uses ODS.

Will require funding.

The advantages far outweigh the disadvantage and the technology change to reduced CFC-1 1 formulationsis recommended.

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APPENDIX

EXAMPLES OF THE APPLICATION OF REDUCED CFC- 1I TECHNOLOGY IN VARIOUS DEVELOPING COUNTRY MARKETS

A) PR CHINA 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Units produced (m) 6.0 6.7 7.5 8.4 9.4 10.0 11.8

CFC-I I usage (kte)

Current technology 3.6 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.7 6.4 HCFC

technologyReduced CFC-I I technology - - 2.25 2.55 2.85 3.4

implemented

Accumulative CFC savings- 11.05kte

Assumptions - growth rate - 12%

- Reduced CFC-I I technolgy implemented by 1994

B) TURKEY 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Unitsproduced(m) 1.0 1.05 1.10 1.16 1.22 1.28 1.35

CFC- 11 usage (kte)

Current technology 0.6 0.63 0.66 0.70 0.73 0.77 HCFC

technologyReduced CFC- II technlogy - 0.47 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39

implemented

Accumulative CFC Savings - 1.6 kte

Assumptions - growth rate - 5%

- Reduced CFC-I I technology implemented by mid-1993

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C) TUNISIA 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Units produced (m) 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.35 0.36 0.38 0.40

CFC-1 I usage (kte)

Current technology 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 HCFC

technologyReducedCFC-1 technology - - 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12 implemented

Accumulative CFC saving -0.44 kte

Assumptions - growth rate - 5%- Reduced CFC-I 1 teIchnology implemented by mid 1994

GMF/kd/10192