developing human system modules for regional climate models jessie cherry iarc/ine/arsc@uaf peter...
TRANSCRIPT
Developing Human System Modules for Regional
Climate Models
Developing Human System Modules for Regional
Climate Models
Jessie Cherry IARC/INE/ARSC@UAF
Peter LarsenGSPP/LBNL@UC-Berkeley
Presentation Outline
• “Old school” approach to the study of Human Dimensions (HD) of Climate Change;
• Shortcomings with the “old school” approach;
• Some examples of HD modeling;
• Direct integration of HD into regional climate modeling (i.e., “new school”);
• Implementation potential for particular sectors
• “Old school” approach to the study of Human Dimensions (HD) of Climate Change;
• Shortcomings with the “old school” approach;
• Some examples of HD modeling;
• Direct integration of HD into regional climate modeling (i.e., “new school”);
• Implementation potential for particular sectors
Past Treatment of Human Dimensions• Second (or third-order) modeling runs;
• Limited use of downscaled physical projections;
• Few examples of model comparison/testing platforms and input/output sensitivity analyses;
• Weighted index, Delphi, and/or subjective approaches are often employed; and
• Stakeholder feedback often occurs later on in the development process, if at all.
Examples of Modeling HD: Alaska
Climate Projections
NCARUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)
Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10
Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15
Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30
Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10
Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Depr.Matrix
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
Climate Projections
NCARUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
Climate Projections
NCARNCARUAF GIUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
$$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)
Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10
Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15
Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30
Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10
Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)
Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10
Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15
Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30
Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10
Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Depr.MatrixDepr.Matrix
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
DenaliDenali
DRMDRM
DCCEDDCCED
DNR
OthersOthers
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
HD Project: “Estimating Risk to Alaska Public Infrastructure from Climate Change” (Larsen et al, 2008)
Examples of Modeling HD: Alaska
0ºc/32º F
Annual Maintenance Cost ($) orDepreciation Rate (lifespan)
$*Annual Average Temp.
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$2
$3
$4
27º F 0ºc/32º F
Annual Maintenance Cost ($) orDepreciation Rate (lifespan)
$*Annual Average Temp.
$1
$2
$3
$4
27º F
Examples of Modeling HD: California
HD Project:
“Estimating Risk to California Energy Infrastructure from Climate Change” (Sathaye et al, 2009)
The “old school” de-coupled HD approach:
• creates a strong disconnect between the physical modeling and the climate impacts communities;
• occasionally ignores stakeholder needs for timely policy and decision making;
• often misses important feedbacks between human agents and the climate system; and
• makes it difficult to compare and test alternative modeling techniques.
Past/Current HD Modeling Concerns
• Resource Development• Hazard Response• Freshwater Supply• Renewable Energy (wind, hydro, geothermal)• Commercial and Sport Fishing/Hunting• Public and Private Infrastructure• Tourism• Subsistence Harvest• Marine Transport• Human Health
Some Arctic Human Dimensions….
1. Develop Human System Modules directly into the Arctic System Modeling platform;
2. Make these modules portable and transparent between different regional models;
3. Encourage international collaboration;
4. Focus on producing multiple socioeconomic impact measures; and
5. Facilitate model testing, scenario development, stakeholder feedback, etc.
A “New School” HD Modeling Proposal….
• Need not occur at each model time step (e.g., hours vs. planning decades);
• One or two-way coupling may be appropriate depending on the system (e.g., GHG emissions); and
• Socioeconomic data collection and dissemination will need to be substantially improved;
•Quantifying coupled model uncertainty is very important, but difficult to communicate.
Some Thoughts on Climate/HD Model Interactions
Some Thoughts on Communicating Uncertainty in HD Impacts…
Source: Larsen et al (2008)
Three different AOGCMs Monte-carlo Simulation (varied inputs)
More Thoughts on Uncertainty in HD Impact Estimates…
Harvard Economics Professor Martin Weitzman noted in a seminal 2008 paper that fat-tailed structural uncertainty about climate change, coupled with a lack of information about high-temperature damages, can potentially outweigh the influence of discounting in a cost-benefit analysis framework.
• Training and supporting interdisciplinary researchers may be the biggest challenge;
• Pan-Arctic data collection and management is another major challenge;
• Stakeholder engagement is time-consuming and expensive;
• Some research disciplines are further along in the evolution of systems modeling; and
• User-friendly “decision support tools” will need to be developed in close collaboration with stakeholders.
What are the Challenges?
• There are (some) appropriate existing regional HD models;
• We have the computing resources;
• We can attempt to minimize miscommunications between the physical and social scientists across the Arctic;
• It’s interesting and policy-relevant work at the frontiers of research!!!
Why include HD modules directly into an ASM?
Additional InformationAdditional Information
International Arctic Research Center at UAF: www.iarc.uaf.edu
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP): www.uaf.edu/accap/
State of Alaska Climate Change Materials: www.climatechange.alaska.gov
E.O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: www.lbl.gov
Goldman School of Public Policy: www.gspp.berkeley.edu
Note: This presentation includes personal views of Peter Larsen.
International Arctic Research Center at UAF: www.iarc.uaf.edu
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP): www.uaf.edu/accap/
State of Alaska Climate Change Materials: www.climatechange.alaska.gov
E.O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: www.lbl.gov
Goldman School of Public Policy: www.gspp.berkeley.edu
Note: This presentation includes personal views of Peter Larsen.
Climate Change Planning
Walsh & Chapman:
PRISM downscaled multi-model projections of temperature and precipitation for AK under various scenarios of Greenhouse Gas emissions
Integrated Assessment
Definition: any model which combines scientific and socio-economic aspects of climate change primarily for the purpose of assessing policy options for climate change control (Kelly & Kolstad, 1998)
Example of Human System Module
Cherry
Goal is to be model independent; work with CCSM and other models/ couplers
Arctic human dimensions
• Oil and Gas Module (spill transport)
• Rural Resilience (wind power potential)
• Coastal Erosion (evolving coastline)
• Freshwater (hydropower, water supply)
• Marine Fisheries (Bering ecosystem)
• Marine Transport (ice cover trajectories)
Ammonium
Euphausiids
Neocalanus
SmallPhytoplankton
Detritus
Smallmicrozooplankton
Largemicrozooplankton
Nitrate
LargePhytoplankton
Pseudocalanus
Iron
14 component ModelNPZD-Benthos
PredationLosses
BenthosBenthicInfauna
Benthic Detritus
BSIERPLower Trophic Level
Ecosystem Model
BSIERPFEAST Higher trophic
level model
NPZ-B-DLower trophic
level
ROMSPhysical
Oceanography
Economic/ecological model
Climate scenarios
BSIERP Vertically Integrated models
Nest
ed m
odelsB
EST
Infrastructure
Impact of Climate Change on Infrastructure study done for Alaska by Peter Larsen and collaborators
Flow Chart of Model Processes
Climate Projections
NCARUAF GI
Import_Wx_UAF_NCAR_10_10_06.sas
$
Depreciator_10_10_06b.sas
Graphs Infrastructure Type Replacement Cost Units Baseline Useful Life (years)
Agriculture N/A N/A N/AAirport 5,664,812$ Whole 10Bridges 10,000$ Per foot 40Courts 16,150,618$ Whole 40Defense 305,441$ Whole 40Emergency Services 467,110$ Whole 20Energy 31,570$ Whole 30Grid 100,000$ Per mile 15Harbor 162,050$ Whole 30Hospital 44,772,750$ Whole 40Law Enforcement 3,917,245$ Whole 30Misc. Building (govt) 1,030,578$ Whole 30Misc. Building (health) 1,631,781$ Whole 30Pipeline 32,225,000$ Per mile 30Railroad 2,795,717$ Per mile 30Roads 3,000,000$ Per mile 10School 2,486,167$ Whole 40Sewer 30,000,000$ Whole 20Telecommunications 299,576$ Whole 10Telephone Line 50,000$ Per mile 15Water 5,000,000$ Whole 20
Tables
Depr.Matrix
Denali
DRM
DCCED
DNR
Others
APID
Infrastructure_DB_09_28_06.sas
Wind Farm Parameterization for WRFAdams & Keith
Modification of the MYJ PBL scheme
Similar work being done commercially by 3TIER, AER, others