PROJECT REPORT

(SIX WEEK SUMMER INTERNSHIP)

DEVELOPMENT OF INTERACTIVE LANDSLIDE

SIMULATOR

Submitted by

Akshit Arora

Roll No. 101303012

Under the Guidance of

Dr. Varun Dutt

Assistant Professor

School of Computing and Electrical Engineering

School of Humanities and Social Sciences

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, MANDI (IIT MANDI)

Department of Computer Science and Engineering

THAPAR UNIVERSITY, PATIALA

June – July 2015

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DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the research project work entitled “Interactive Landslide Simulator

(www.pratik.acslab.org)” is an authentic record of my own work carried out at I.I.T. Mandi as

requirements of 7 weeks summer training for the award of B.E. (Computer Science and

Engineering), Thapar University, Patiala, under the guidance of Dr. Varun Dutt, during 1st June

to 13th July, 2015.

I further declare that no part of this report is copied from Internet or any other source.

__________________________

Akshit Arora

101303012

Date: Wednesday, 12 August 2015

Project Video Link: http://bit.do/akshit_arora_101303012

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ABSTRACT

Previous research shows that people living in landslide prone area have a poor understanding

about causes of landslides and what they can do to minimize the damage.

The model we developed involves public contribution for landslide aversion. We also

developed a web-based game, which makes people invest against landslides and experience the

resulting consequences via messages and imagery.

This game can be used to improve public understanding about landslides, for effective policy-

making on natural hazards like landslides and for educating children in school.

Future work in the simulator involves:

1) Making it a multi-player game instead of the current single-player version.

2) Incorporating regional languages into the simulator

3) Making the simulation culture independent.

Preliminary model has been implemented as an interactive landslide simulator of the following

website: http://pratik.acslab.org

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This project was my first hands-on experience in research and I have learnt a lot in the last 3

months. This would not have been possible without the support of many individuals and

organizations, and I am extremely thankful to them for their help.

I would like to express my deep gratitude to Dr. Varun Dutt and Pratik Chaturvedi, my

internship supervisors, for their patient guidance, enthusiastic encouragement and useful

critiques of this work. I would also like to thank Dr. Deepak Garg and Dr. Shivani Goel, for

their and encouragement throughout this project.

My grateful thanks is also extended to my senior Ruminder Singh (Computer Engineering,

Thapar University Patiala) for helping me understand the basic concepts of web

development. I would also like thank my fellow intern and my roommate Mohd Zaki (Civil

Engineering, MNIT Allahabad) for making my stay at IIT, a pleasant one.

Finally, I wish to thank my parents for their support and encouragement throughout my

internship period and Thapar University and IIT Mandi for giving me the wonderful

opportunity.

Akshit Arora

(101303012)

B.E. Computer Science and Engineering

Class of 2017

Thapar University, Patiala

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CONTENTS

1. INSTITUTE PROFILE

2. INTRODUCTION

3. BACKGROUND

4. CHAPTER 1: MATHEMATICAL MODEL

5. CHAPTER 2: MODEL SIMULATIONS

6. CHAPTER 3: SIMULATOR WEBSITE

7. CHAPTER 4: DATABASE DESIGN

8. LIMITATIONS

9. CONCLUSION

10. FUTURE WORK

11. REFERENCES

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INSTITUTE PROFILE

Indian Institute Technology Mandi

(IIT Mandi)

It is an autonomous premier engineering and

technological university located in Mandi. It is one of

the eight new Indian Institutes of Technologies (IITs)

established by the Ministry of Human Resource

Development. (For more information: iitmandi.ac.in)

Dr. Varun Dutt (Faculty Advisor)

Assistant Professor at IIT Mandi in School of Computing and

Electrical Engineering and School of Humanities and Social

Sciences, Applied Cognitive Science Lab. His research interests

include:

Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Modelling

Human-Computer Interaction

Situation Awareness

Judgment and Decision Making

Environmental Decision Making

(For more information: http://faculty.iitmandi.ac.in/~varun/)

Mr. Pratik Chaturvedi (Project Associate)

Ph.D. Student currently working under Dr. Varun Dutt. Also working

as Scientist ‘D’ at Defence Terrain Research Laboratory, Defence

Research and Development Organization (New Delhi) on ‘Landslide

risk assessment, monitoring and prediction’.

(For more information: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Pratik_Chaturvedi)

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INTRODUCTION

Landslides are widespread,

frequent and sudden hazards that

strike human lives, livestock,

livelihood, living places and

environment in an adverse manner

leading to colossal losses and

damages directly or indirectly in a

cumulative way (Prakash, 2011)[1].

As shown in Figure 1, the

destruction caused due to landslides

in India is very high. An

examination of the available data

indicates that 3971 people have

been reported as killed in 248 fatal

events out of 371 socio-

economically significant landslides

over a period of about 300 years in

India (S. Prakash, 2011)[1].

The entire landslide affected areas

have been classified in 3

geographical areas that include (i)

West and Northwest Himalaya, (ii)

East and Northeast India and (iii)

South India including Maharashtra

(S. Prakash, 2011)[1].

Many organizations across the globe have tried to minimize the damage caused by natural

disasters, by educating people through games and simulations involving people to use disaster

aversion techniques to lower the probability of disaster and protect themselves. These include:

Figure 1: Historical Records of Socio-economically

Significant Landslides in India (Surya Prakash, 2011)

Table 1: Historical Records of Socio-economically

Significant Landslides in India (Surya Prakash, 2011)

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United Nations - International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

For earthquakes, hurricanes, wildfires and floods

Simulation: Inside the Haiti Earthquake

( http://www.insidedisaster.com/experience/Main.html ) Inside the Haiti Earthquake is

a first-person simulation based on documentary footage from Haiti and real-life

decision scenarios.

Considering the huge damage caused by landslides every year and a very high percentage of

land in India prone to landslides, it is very expensive to deploy early warning systems. The

kind of games shown above can help people understand the importance of investing in landslide

aversion techniques and also train them for any future landslide event. A survey was conducted

for people living in landslide prone area (Chaturvedi P. & Dutt V., 2015) and it was noticed that a

lot of misconceptions about causes of landslides existed. This also had to be handled via this

simulator.

UN/ISDR: http://www.stopdisastersgame.org

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Developing such a game / simulator was the main objective of the internship.

First of all, a game model was developed on an Excel Spreadsheet by mathematically

modelling the probability of landslide due to investment, probability of landslide due

to rainfall and types of damages (fatality, injury and property) caused in the event of a

landslide. (For more details, please see: CHAPTER 1: MATHEMATICAL MODEL)

The extreme scenarios have been discussed in CHAPTER 2: SIMULATION

SCENARIO

Then, website game was developed, keeping concepts of human computer interaction

in mind, using PHP and MySQL as back end and HTML5, Bootstrap, CSS and JS as

front end. (For more details, please see: CHAPTER 3: SIMULATOR WEBSITE)

Database captures every parameter values while the player is playing the game. The

parameter values for scenarios and messages (based on probability of landslide and day

wise) are also stored in the database. (For more details, please see: CHAPTER 4:

DATABASE DESIGN)

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BACKGROUND

Mandi district of Himachal Pradesh is extremely vulnerable to natural disasters due to its fragile

geology, active tectonics, high relief, critical slopes and intense rainfall.

Previous research shows that public’s understanding of causes and consequences of landslide

disaster and their landslide risk perception is very different from what it ought to be.

A survey conducted recently in Khaliar area of Mandi District, indicated that people living in

landslide prone area had a lot of misconceptions about causes of landslides. Also, people had

very little knowledge about what to do in an event of a landslide. (Chaturvedi & Dutt, 2015)

SURVEY RESULTS (Khaliar Area, Mandi

District, H.P., India)

Though there have been many games / simulations designed on earthquakes, floods, hurricanes

etc., but, there hasn’t been any such work on landslides yet, that involves people directly with

nature and perform transactions in terms of investment on aversion techniques and get rewards

from nature (by getting protected against landslides).

Similar problems involving people interacting with the natural system directly through their

investment have been solved on other risks like Climate Change (V. Dutt, C. Gonzalez, 2012)

[2] and Cyber Security (V. Dutt, Y.S. Ahn, C. Gonzalez, 2011)[3]

The purpose of this research is to develop such a model.

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CHAPTER 1: MATHEMATICAL MODEL

The model focusses on calculation of total probability of landslides (due to natural factors and

due to investment made in landslide aversion) and also on assessing the types of damages

caused by

landslides and

their effects on

player’s economic

status.

DFD diagrams:

DFD Level 0 and

Level 1

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Explanation of processes:

(A) The calculation of total probability of landslides

It involves calculation of two probabilities:

a) Probability of landslide due to investment

The calculation used here is based on expected payoff equation used in Hasson,

2009. [4] Expected payoff equation:

E = Initial Endowment

B = Budget towards addressing climate change

n = group size

x i = Investment in Mitigation, x i ≤ B

a i = Investment in Adaption, a i = B − x i

B = x i + a i

m = Return to Mitigation

d = Return to adaptation

S = Severity of Disaster

P = Probability of Disaster

b) Probability of landslide due to natural factors

Natural factors include rainfall, soil type, slope profile, etc. These can be

categorized into two parts:

Probability of landslide due to rainfall (temporal probability)

Probability of landslide due to soil type, slope profile etc. (spatial

probability)

The approach used to calculate both of them is based on a research paper by

Geosciences Group, July 2015[5]. Equation used for calculation of probability of

landslide due to rainfall:

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The logistic regression retained the daily (DR), 3-day cumulative (3DCR) and 30-day

antecedent rainfall (30DAR) as significant predictors influencing slope failure.

The rainfall data was collected as raw data from NASA TRMM project, from January

1, 2004 to April 30, 2013.

(B) Damage Modelling

The damage caused can be classified into 3 categories:

a) Property Loss

b) Fatality

c) Injury

All 3 of them have different kinds of effects on the player’s wealth an income in the

simulator. The data used for calculating probabilities of the above damage has been

obtained from S. Prakash, December 2011. [1]

The stochastic nature of landslide occurrence and damages caused by it have been considered

too.

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CHAPTER 2: SIMULATION SCENARIOS

After the development of the model, analysis was done. Around 10,000 simulations were run

to get average, maximum and minimum values of output parameters. Below are some of the

results in extreme scenarios with respect to investment made by player in the simulation, and

the only output parameter considered is number of landslides in the simulator.

1. Number of landslides when the investment on landslide aversion techniques made by

the player in the simulator is 0% of his income available for investment:

Mean: 48.8128

Max: 59

Min: 35

These results

indicate that the

worst case

scenario of the

game is 59

landslides out of

60 days of the

simulator.

2. Number of landslides when the investment on landslide aversion techniques made by

the player in the simulator is 100% of his income available for investment:

Mean: 21.4892

Max: 40

Min: 5

These results

indicate that the

best case scenario

is at least 5

landslides out of 60

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3. Number of landslides when the investment on landslide aversion techniques made by

the player in the simulator is 0% - 100% of his income available for investment:

Mean: 37.7

Max: 54

Min: 19

These results indicate

that in an average

scenario gives

approximately 37

landslides out of 60

days of simulator.

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CHAPTER 3: SIMULATOR WEBSITE

(Project is available live at: www.pratik.acslab.org)

Starting up with the activity diagram, the technologies used in the website have been

explained along with sequence of web pages have been discussed in this chapter.

Activity Diagram:

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The technologies used in making the simulator website are:

1) Bootstrap - The most popular HTML, CSS, and JS framework for developing

responsive, mobile first projects on the web. (http://getbootstrap.com/)

Reason to use - For fast and decent front-end development of website using grid system

of bootstrap which also considers mobile platform.

2) HTML5, CSS – It is a core technology mark-up language of the Internet used for

structuring and presenting content for the World Wide Web. Cascading Style Sheets

(CSS) is a style sheet language used for describing the look and formatting of a

document written in a mark-up language. (http://www.w3schools.com/html/)

Reason to use – The alternative option was using Adobe Flash, but it requires Adobe

Flash player in the browser which is normally not available on many Linux platforms

and does not come pre-installed on iOS devices. Using Flash, the accessibility of the

game could be compromised and hence making it difficult to implement at any place.

Screenshot 1: Home page (www.pratik.acslab.org) using Grid System of Bootstrap.

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3) Impress JS – It's an open source presentation framework based on the power of CSS3

transforms and transitions in modern browsers and inspired by the idea behind

prezi.com. (http://impress.github.io/impress.js/#/bored)

Reason to use – To present information on home page in an attractive way. Other

alternatives like Deck JS (another open source presentation framework based on CSS

transforms) could be used too.

4) PHP, MySQL – Both of them have been used for back-end of the simulator website.

PHP is a server-side scripting language created in 1995 and designed for web

development but also used as a general-purpose programming language. MySQL is

the most popular open source database and PHP mysqli functions offers connection

between PHP and MySQL. (https://www.mysql.com/ , https://www.php.net/)

5) Highcharts API – It is a product of HIGHSOFT, used for data visualizations on

websites. On the simulator website this has been used for showing the player the

variation probability of landslide as he plays in an interactive way.

(http://www.highcharts.com/) Data Visualization for player using Highcharts API

Screen shot of a slide presented on Home page using Impress JS

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Reason to use – It offers variety of

charts along with automatic tooltip

features. It is compatible with most of

the desktop browsers and mobile /

tablet platforms too. It is based on

native browser technologies, no

plugins needed. It is free for non-

commercial purposes.

6) Qualtrics – Qualtrics is the world’s

leading insight technology provider. A

tool used for conducting surveys. To

collect survey responses from user at

the end of the game.

(http://www.qualtrics.com/)

Reason to use – Scalable, Flexible,

Easy to use. User can control survey flow, Qualtrics can capture URL parameters.

Some screenshots of the website are:

www.pratik.acslab.org – Home page, please see Screenshot 1.

http://pratik.acslab.org/instruction.php

- Instructions page (the one accessible

directly from top navigation bar)

Screenshot 2.

http://pratik.acslab.org/contact.php -

Team page and Contact Form. The e-

mail generated when the user clicks

send button is sent directly to Akshit

Arora and Pratik Chaturvedi,

Screenshot 3.

Screenshot 2: Instructions

Screenshot 3: The Team page and Contact Form

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http://pratik.acslab.org/consent.php?id=26237a9b6da8d87c4336264358974bdf -

Consent form (Screenshot 4). This page is intended to verify if user is legally eligible

to participate or not. In the URL of this page is the md5 version of unique user ID that

is being generated at the back end and is a session variable for the rest of the time user

is using the simulator. This unique ID enables us to uniquely identify each user that is

visiting the website and match it with the qualtrics database obtained from the qualtrics

survey presented to that user in the end.

- If user answers NO to any question, an alert (Screenshot 5) is generated displaying

that he / she is not eligible to participate. Otherwise he / she is redirected to

Demographics form.

- If user directly tries to access consent

page or any page after consent page

(like game page / demographics page), without going through the home page first,

the user id will not be generated and hence he / she will be displayed an error

message (Screenshot 6), therefore, diverting him / her to the code that generates the

unique id.

o http://pratik.acslab.org/demographic.php?id=d7758e45d1700a9c1b832d5440e49f85&con

nect=true - Demographics Profile. This page is intended to collect basic demographic

information about the user. It is displayed to the user after the consent page. (Screenshot 7)

Screenshot 4: Bottom Section of Consent Form

Screenshot 5: If user answers no.

Screenshot 6: when user directly

accesses consent page,

http://pratik.acslab.org/consent.php

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The form validation for e-mail and age field have also been implemented at the back-end

using Java Script and form as also been protected against SQL Injection.

o http://pratik.acslab.org/instruction.php?id=d7758e45d1sfjfa9c1b832d5440e49f85&conne

ct=true&demo=true – Welcome page. It is intended to give a thorough scenario to user in

text form about the simulation he is about to begin. User is presented the same instruction

set as is there in Screenshot 2. Besides instruction set, initial game parameters are also

displayed to him / her. (Screenshot 8)

Screenshot 7: Demographics Profile Form.

Demo

Screenshot

8: Starting

Game

parameters

displayed to

user at the

bottom of

Welcome

Page

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A scenario is a set of parameters that initialize the simulation. Before the welcome page is

loaded, a scenario is chosen randomly from multiple pre-defined scenarios in the database

at the back - end.

o http://pratik.acslab.org/landslide_positive.php - Landslide Occured Page displayed when

user encounters a landslide.

The images appear on this page depend upon 3 factors:

1) Whether property loss has occurred or not

2) Whether injury occurred or not

3) Whether property damage has occurred or not.

Every damage, has it’s own kind of effect on the wealth of the player. To generate maximum

experience for user, GIF animations have been used. (Example of gif file animation:

http://gph.is/1ncvFvX )

Images of each category are selected from random sets of images provided in the database.

Screenshot 9: Page Displayed when landslide occurs and fatality, injury and property

damage have occured

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o http://pratik.acslab.org/game.php - Game Page (Screenshot 10)

This page is the main game page of he user, the logic used behind the calculations of the

game parameters tabele matches the mathematical model discussed earlier in CHAPTER

1: MATHEMATICAL MODEL. The user can click on the help button any time during the

simulation.

Screenshot 10: The game page

Screenshot 11: The help section of game page, visible only when user clicks the help button.

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The messages being displayed in pictorial form are of 2 categories

1) PROBABILITY WISE MESSAGES: Set of messages that displayed when probability

of landslide lies in certain pre-defined range of values in a given scenario.

2) DAY WISE MESSAGES: Set of messages pre-defined in the database to be displayed

at particular day in a given scenario.

For powerful presentation, images used here are not only static ones, but some animations

(GIF files) have also been used to convey the message clearly. Example of animation:

(http://gph.is/1ncvFvX).

1. http://pratik.acslab.org/end.php - At the end of simulation. (Screenshot 12)

On clicking “Continue to Survey” button, user is redirected to:

http://cmu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_3a8WJooCRf5b93v?id=55b3nfdsjed181e53.26935423

Qualtrics Survey link, along with URL parameter unique ID created on the Consent Form. This

parameter is captured and stored with the result of survey in qualtrics database.

Screenshot 12: End of simulation

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CHAPTER 4: DATABASE DESIGN

The current website has been hosted on www.apisnetworks.org

The database on the back-end consists of 9 tables as shown in the phpMyAdmin table below:

1) Death Images: It contains the images to be displayed when in an event of landslide a

death occurs.

2) Demographics: It captures the demographic information filled by the user on the

demographic page.

3) Game: It stores every input given by the user during the simulation and every game

parameter associated with it.

4) Injury Images: It contains the set of images, on of which is to be displayed when in an

event of landslide an injury occurs.

5) Message Day: It contains the images which are to be displayed on the game page on

specfied days in a given scenario.

6) Message Probability: It contains the images which are to be displayed on the game page

when specific range of probability of landslide is achieved in a given scenario.

7) Param: It is the parameter table that consists of different pre-defined scenarios and the

values associated with game parameters needed to initialize the simulation.

8) Property Images: It contains the set of images, on of which is to be displayed when in

an event of landslide a property damage occurs.

9) Reference: It consists of rainfall data being used for calculation of probability of

landslide due to natural factors.

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LIMITATIONS

The limitations of the simulator are:

1. Culture Specific: The kind of assumptions made in the mathematical model are

specific to the culture of north India. These values may change from region to region.

2. Not a multi-player simulator: In reality it is not necessary that investment has to be

made individually. Such investments are usually made on community basis and

therefore, this idea of public goods game can be incorporated into the current

mathematical model.

3. Language: Currently the game is available only in English. But to be able to implement

it on a wider community, multiple languages (Hindi, etc.) will have to be made

available.

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CONCLUSIONS

In the conclusion it can be said that the simulator is fulfilling the objective it was designed for.

Simulator can be applied in many ways:

o Designing better disaster management systems: The model working behind this game

will help understanding the risk taking capacity people living in a particular area and how

much they want to invest in landslide aversion, therefore, generating a risk perception

profile of that area. Such profiles can be useful in designing better disaster management

systems.

o One of a kind landslide model since it considers investment factor: Most of the existing

models around landslides are taking into account only the natural factors. The model behind

this game takes into account not only them but investment made in landslide aversion too.

o Realistic Simulation: Since the model being used has been scientifically designed using

accurate historical data, this game simulates a realistic environment that a player living in

landslide prone area can directly relate to.

o Creating an awareness in the community: This kind of an arrangement allows the player

to directly relate to the game and see the consequences of the decisions they make in terms

of investment. The messages shown in the game page help to give important disaster

mitigation and preparedness information, thus telling them what to do in an event of

landslide.

o Feedback Mechanism: The survey conducted before [1] has proved that people have no

clear understanding about causes of landslides. This survey has been put at the end of this

game too, so that the difference the game has made in public understanding can be recorded

and compared with the observations made last time. This serves as a feedback mechanism,

which can help us further improve the simulation.

o Designing better area specific policies: For policy makers in the government, it is vital to

know as much as they can about how people living in disaster prone areas, think, so that

better policies can be made.

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FUTURE WORK

This model can be further developed for following purposes:

1. As a part of School Curriculum: The model can be modified to use the simulation as

a game for school students, to make them aware about common terms related to disaster

management (mitigation, preparedness and aversion) and let them experience the effect

of their direct investment on disaster aversion.

2. Developed for multiple language: The website front-end can be modified to make the

content available in other languages.

3. Multi-player game: The concept of public goods game can be added to the current

model, in order to make it more realistic and fun.

Project Video Link: http://bit.do/akshit_arora_101303012

REFERENCES

1. Prakash S. (December 2012). Historical Records of Socio-economically Significant

Landslides in India [pdf]. Retrieved from

http://www.researchgate.net/publication/272905239_Historical_Records_of_Socio-

economically_Significant_Landslides_in_India

2. Dutt V., Gonzalez C. (April, 2012). Human Control of Climate Change [pdf]. Retrieved

from http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0202-x#page-1

3. Dutt V., Ahn Y.S., Gonzalez C. (January, 2011). Cyber Situation Awareness: Modeling

the Security Analyst in a Cyber-Attack Scenario through Instance-Based Learning

[pdf]. Retrieved from http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-22348-8_24

4. Hasson R. (2010). Climate Change in a Public Goods Game: Investment Decision in

Mitigation versus Adaptation [pdf]. Retrieved from:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800910003459

5. Geosciences Group (July, 2015). Experimental Landslide Early Warning System for

Rainfall Triggered Landslides along Rishikesh-Badrinath, Rishikesh-Uttarkashi-

Gaumukh, Chamoli-Okhimath, Rudraprayag-Kedarnath and Pithoragarh-Malpa route

corridors, Uttarakhand: Approach document [pdf]. Retrieved from: http://bhuvan-

noeda.nrsc.gov.in/disaster/disaster/tools/landslide/doc/landslide_warning.pdf