Developing links with agricultural research centres

Andrew Challinor and Tim Wheeler

The CGIAR network

In and for developing countries

16 centres across the globe

Autonomous but collaborative

Broad research base

Germplasm bank

Con

Links with CGIAR centres ...

‘to collate information needed for applications by agricultural research centres’

• potential applications of forecast information• forecast data: when, scale, format, …• any other issues?

ICRISAT

Location: India and Niger

Semi-arid tropics

Groundnut

Millet

Sorghum

CIMMYT

Location: Mexico and Zimbabwe

Maize and wheat

Visited in Feb. 2002

CIAT

Location: Colombia

Beans and cassava

Visited Feb. 2002

IRRI

Location: The Philippines

Rice

Visited March 2002

Oldest CG centre (F. 1960)

Overview of response

Rainfall seen as the most important variable

Spatial scale is an issue, especially in mountainous regions

Probabilistic forecasts not always initially seen as useful

Importance of drought / heat stress at critical crop stages

Leadtime

Spatial scale

annual

seasonal

monthly

daily

Country district field

Seed production

Risk assessment andcrop scheduling

Pests and disease control

FEWS

Examples of applications of SF

Planting of drought tolerant bean varieties

Forecasting of dry spells near flowering

Transplant vs. direct seeding for rice

Rainfall-related cassava diseases

Maize streak virus

Bean breeding

Application Background Information required 

End-users

Aflatoxin contamination of groundnut

Aflatoxin is a carcinogenic toxin produced by a fungus which grows on groundnut seeds during crop growth under certain climatic conditions, and in subsequent seed stores. It is a major risk to human health and livestock, and restricts access of agricultural products to global markets. 

Soil temperature and rainfall during crop growth required up to 60d ahead

Agricultural planning agencies and extension services. The livestock feed industry.

More efficient use of agricultural inputs

Inorganic fertilisers are expensive inputs for semi-arid crop production. Fertilisers are less effective in promoting crop growth and yield in dry compared with wet seasons.  

Crop water balance up to 120d ahead

Government extension services and larger-scale farmers

Livestock feed quality of sorghum

The quality of sorghum grain for livestock is reduced drastically if the crop is infected by grain molds during crop growth. The spread of grain molds in sorghum crops is linked to rainfall and humidity, but infection is only apparent after harvest.

Rainfall and humidity up to 30d before harvest

National livestock feed industry. Possibly, short-term (7d) information for farmers

General Circulation Model

Application

model

spatial

parameters

model

uncertainties

output

processing

weather

forecast

crop

forecastLar

ge

area

mo

del

Methodology for exploring applications of SF

Regional Climate Model

Participatory research at CIAT

Average annual rainfall distribution for Yotoco (1972-2001), and

Farmers' estimation of annual rainfall distribution

Month

ly c

um

ula

tive r

ain

fall

in m

m

Farm

ers

' est

imate

of m

onth

ly r

ain

fall

magnitu

de

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Yotoco)

Farmer group 1

Farmer group 2

Oberthur (2002)

Combining local and formal knowledge

Relevance

Accuracy

Local knowledgeX

XFormal knowledge

10 farmers8

World Bank

Govts.

(Mintzberg)

?

? ?