Developing National Drought Policies

5 September 2016

Robert Stefanski, ChiefAgricultural Meteorology Programme

Climate and Water Department

Acknowledgements

• Don Wilhite ‐ University of Nebraska‐Lincoln• Mohamed Bazza – FAO• Daniel Tsegai – UNCCD• David Coates – CBD• Frederik Pischke – Global Water Partnership

4

Final Declaration• Develop proactive drought impact mitigation, preventive and 

planning measures, risk management, fostering of science, appropriate technology and innovation, public outreach and resource management as key elements of effective national drought policy. 

• Promote greater collaboration to enhance the quality of local/national/regional/global observation networks and delivery systems. 

• Improve public awareness of drought risk and preparedness for drought. 

www.wmo.int/hmndp

Integrated Drought Management Programme - IDMP

www.idmp.info

National Drought Management Policy Guidelines

• Adapting of 10‐step process by Don Wilhite (National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska‐Lincoln)

• Response to need articulated at High‐level Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP) 

• Template that can be adapted to national realities and needs

• Building on existing risk management capacities

Two Phrases to Remember• If you do what you’ve always done, you’ll get what you’ve always got!– "You cannot solve current problems with current thinking. Current problems are the result of current thinking." Albert Einstein

• Who and what is at risk and why?– Issues of vulnerability and risk reduction– Building resilience, increasing coping capacity and institutional capacity

Defining Drought

Drought is a deficiency of precipitation (intensity) from expected or “normal” that extends over a season

or longer period of time (duration) . . . . .

Meteorological Droughtand is insufficient to meet the demands of human

activities and the environment (impacts).Agricultural,

Hydrological andSocio-economic

Drought

-Hundreds of definitions—application and region specific

Effective drought management must be INTEGRATED across sectors and

within and between levels of government as well as with NGOs.

Spatial Extent

Droughts differ in terms of:

As with other natural hazards, each drought event is unique in its physical

characteristics and impacts.

• Drought is a creeping phenomenon with slow onset

• Impacts of drought can accumulate gradually

• Lack of precise and universal definition for drought leads to confusion about when a drought begins and when it ends 

• Leads to uncertainty on precise time to implement emergency response actions or mitigation measures.

Droughts are among the most complex natural hazards

• Building capacity is essential to facilitate the necessary framework for developing national drought management policy. In many countries, these capacities are weak or non‐existent.

• Governments need to prioritize drought in the development policy.

• National drought policies need a collaborative environment that supports and encourages coordination within and between various levels of government.

Requirements to implement national drought management policies

• Strong outreach and media programmes to improve awareness of drought and need to raise level of consciousness of society regarding drought cannot be neglected.

• National drought policies should reflect regional differences in drought characteristics, vulnerability and impacts to allow decision‐makers to identify sectors and regions that are vulnerable to drought and investigate management options before crisis occurs.

Requirements to implement national drought management policies

2| Objectives of National Drought Policy

• To encourage vulnerable economic sectors & population groups to adopt self-reliant measures that promote riskmanagement

• To promote sustainable use of agricultural & natural resource base

• To facilitate early recovery from drought through actions consistent with national drought policy objectives

• It can be a stand-alone policy or part of national policy for disaster risk reduction that is centered on the principles of risk management

1) Monitoring and early warning systems (NMHS, NDMO, WMO)

2) Vulnerability and impact assessments (Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries/Marine Resources, 

Livestock, Environment/Climate Change Division, Health, Finance, NDMO, NMHS, Water Authority and Internal Affairs.)

3) Drought preparedness, mitigation and response (Red Cross, NDMO, NMHS, WMO, Agriculture, 

Environment/Climate Change Division, Health, Finance and Internal Affairs)

Key Pillars of National Drought Management Policy 

• Monitoring/early warning, prediction and information delivery systems– Integrated monitoring of key indicators

• Precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, streamflow, snowpack, groundwater, impacts, etc.

– Use of appropriate indices– Used to trigger actions in drought plans– Reliable seasonal forecasts– Development/delivery of information and

sector-specific decision-support tools

Key Pillars of National Drought Management Policy  I

• Risk/Vulnerability and impact assessment– Conduct of risk/vulnerability assessments– Monitoring/archiving of impacts/losses

• Critical for evaluating progress in risk reduction and also for vulnerability assessment

• Mitigation and response– Proactive measures to increase coping capacity– Response measures that support the principles

of drought risk reduction

Key Pillars of National Drought Management Policy  II

Monitoring, Early Warning & Information Delivery Systems

Indicators/Indices• Precipitation• Temperature• Surface water supplies

– Stream flow– Soil Moisture– Reservoir levels– Snow pack– Water use

• Ground water• Remotely‐sensed data (e.g., 

plant water stress)• Impacts

– By sector, area

Agencies/Ministries/Organizations• Water• Meteorological & Hydrological 

Services• Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries• Environment• Health• Energy• Transportation• Commerce• Social Services• NGOs• Others 

Vulnerability/Impact Assessment, Mitigation and Response

By Sector• Agriculture• Energy• Environment, Recreation & Tourism• Transportation• Health• Commerce• Others

Agencies, Organizations & Stakeholder Groups

• Reps from Ministries and non-governmental organizations

• Communities & regional organizations

• Stakeholder groups representing all impact sectors

• Others

• Drought management areas (provinces, river basins)

• Communities (rural, urban)• Indigenous population

Who and What is at RISK and Why?

By Area/Region

Defining and Characterizing Vulnerability• Vulnerability refers to the inability to withstand the effects of a hostile environment (drought).

• Vulnerability is the diminished capacity of an individual or group to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural or man‐made hazard. (Resilience)

• Vulnerability arises when people are at risk through their exposure to a shock or stress associated with a natural hazard.

• People, sectors, communities and institutions differ in their exposure and vulnerability to risk (coping capacity).  

Addressing Vulnerability• To determine people’s vulnerability, two questions

need to be asked:– Who and what is vulnerable? – Why are they vulnerable?

• Addressing vulnerability requires:– reducing the impact of the hazard itself where possible

(through mitigation, prediction and early warning, preparedness, education, etc.);

– building capacity to withstand and cope with hazards; – tackling the root causes of vulnerability, such as

poverty, poor management of natural resources, government policies, inadequate training or management skills, access to resources.

3 Pillars of Drought Policy & Preparedness with Linkages

Monitoring/Early Warning & Info.

DeliveryDrought status (Met., Agric., Hydro. & Socio‐

economic)

Mitigation and Response

Actions and measures to mitigate drought impacts and respond to drought emergencies

(short-, medium- & long-term)

Vulnerability and Impact Assessment

Who/What is at RISK & Why? Prioritization/Ranking

Drought characterization studies

Feedback

Integrated Drought Management

WMO, UNCCD, FAO, UN-Water - Europe Regional Workshop on National Drought Management Policies. 9-11 July 2013, Bucharest, Romania

IndicatorsTriggers

Actions

I-1I-2I-3I-4

I-1Level 1 (SPI 0.0 to -0.99)Level 2 (SPI -1.0 to -1.49)Level 3 (SPI -1.5 to -1.99)Level 4 (SPI -2.0)

Level 2Action 1Action 2Action 3

Consider Level 2 ; SPI = ‐1.25(Moderate drought)

Consider Action 1: Ban watering lawnsConsider Action 2: Dig extra wells for livestock and 

wildlife in areaConsider Action 3: Reduce irrigation of annual 

crops by 50%

Consider I‐1 is SPI

The 10-Step Planning Process

• It is a one approach to assist nations with NDP process

• It can/should be modified/adopted according to localconditions

• Requires political will and coordinated approach; diverse stakeholders must be engaged in the process.

• It has been fundamental in guiding drought mitigation and preparedness plans in the USA, Brazil, Mexico, Morocco, among others.

The 10-Step Planning Process

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Step 5

Appoint a national drought policy commission

State or define the goals and objectives of a risk-based national drought management policy

Seek stakeholder participation and define/resolve conflicts between key water use sectors, considering transboundary implications.

Inventory data and financial resources available and identify groups at risk

Prepare/write the key tenets of a national drought management policy and preparedness plans (monitoring, early warning and prediction; risk and impact assessment; mitigation and response)

The 10-Step Planning Process (cont)

Step 6

Step 7

Step 8

Step 9

Step 10

Identify research needs and fill institutional gaps

Integrate science and policy aspects of drought management

Publicize the national drought management policy and preparedness plans, build public awareness and consensus

Develop education programs for all age and stakeholder groups

Evaluate, test and revise drought management policy and supporting preparedness plans

Take Home Messages• Past drought management efforts have been reactive—

ineffective, poorly coordinated & poorly targeted (crisis management).

• Managing sector impacts—increase resilience to drought.• Integrated drought management  requires a collaborative 

approach within and between levels of government and the private sector for monitoring and early warning, risk/vulnerability assessment and mitigation and response.

• Time is NOW to change the paradigm from crisis to drought risk management through integrated drought management.

• The ‘cost of inaction’!

Thank you