developing services statistics in singapore presentation at the international forum on metropolitan...
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Developing Services Statistics in Singapore
Presentation at the International Forumon Metropolitan Statistics - Beijing 2008
Dr Soon Teck Wong Director
Economic Accounts Division
Singapore Department of Statistics
Outline
Introduction Overview of Singapore’s services
economy Classifications for the services industries Short-term indicators for the services
industries On-going and future development
Introduction
Accounting for about two-thirds of Singapore's GDP, the services sector is central and critical to the economy of a city state like Singapore
Measuring services output is inherently difficult
Unlike manufacturing, the services industries are heterogeneous and often made up of a large number of small businesses
Singapore uses Comprehensive annual survey data, available about 12-
18 months after reference year
Short term proxy indicators for quarterly GDP compilation
Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy
Share of Nominal GVA
35.7
60.1
29.5
65.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Goods ProducingIndustries
Services ProducingIndustries
Per
Cen
t
1988
2007
Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy
Share of Nominal GVA(Services Producing Industries)
12.911.4
3.3 2.6
9.8 9.9
16.2
9.4
1.93.6
12.4 12.5
9.810.2
0
5
10
15
20
Wholesale &Retail
Transport &Storage
Hotels &Restaurants
Information &Communications
FinancialServices
BusinessServices
Community,Social &PersonalServices
Per
Cen
t
1988
2007
Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy
Real Average Annual Growth Rate 1988-2007
6.9
6.6
7.3
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
Overall Economy Goods ProducingIndustries
Services ProducingIndustries
Per
Cen
t
Overview of Singapore’s Services Economy
Real Average Annual Growth Rate 1988-2007 (Services Producing Industries)
8.4
5.8
3.7
11.9
8.4
6.46.2
02468
101214
Wholesale &Retail
Transport &Storage
Hotels &Restaurants
Information &Communications
FinancialServices
BusinessServices
Community,Social &PersonalServices
Pe
r C
en
t
Classifications for the Services Industries
By Major Industry Groups Singapore Standard Industrial Classification
(SSIC) 2005 which is based on ISIC, Revision 4 Broad sections for services increased from 10
to 14, in recognition of increasing variety and heterogeneity of services
Reflecting the importance of telecommunications, IT-related and media services, new section ‘Information and Communications’ was created
Classifications for the Services Industries
By Clusters Increasing needs for data based on groups of
industries from more than one section Some international organisations proposing
definitions for some clusters to facilitate international comparisons ICT cluster (OECD) Cultural sector (UNESCO)
Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries
Administrative data As far as possible, DOS relies on
administrative sources for short term indicators High frequency Comprehensive Less labour-intensive than surveys Reduces respondent burden
Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries
Administrative data – Trade data TradeNet
Nation-wide comprehensive electronic data interchange system for trade documentation
Provides comprehensive monthly information on Singapore’s external trade
Monthly data available within 1 week from end of reference month
Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries
Administrative data – Tourism-related data Data collected include
Visitor arrivals Room days occupied Average occupancy rate Hotel room and F&B revenue
Monthly data available about 4 weeks after reference month
Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries
Administrative Data - Transportation Data Data collected include
Aircraft landings Air passenger arrivals and departures Sea and air cargo handled Vessel arrivals Container throughput
Data generally available 4 – 6 weeks after end of reference period
Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries
Data from High-Frequency Surveys Collects minimal information from a small
number of establishments that account for a relatively large share of total industry VA
Key economic indicators are derived from such surveys
Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries
Data from High-Frequency Surveys Monthly surveys
Retail sales Restaurants and other F&B outlets Turnover data collected used to compile
retail sales index and catering trade index Indices available with 4-week lag
Short Term Indicators for the Services Industries
Data from High-Frequency Surveys Quarterly surveys
Wholesale trade Services Turnover data collected used to compile
wholesale trade index and business receipts index
Indices available with 6 - 8 week lag
On-going and Future Development
Measurement of output Need for continuous review and improvement
of data sources and indicators Increasing recognition of inadequacy of input-
based approach for non-market services Monitoring developments Actively developing new indicators and
methodologies to better capture output of non-market activities
On-going and Future Development
Better Data Coverage of Services Industries Continuously developing more appropriate
indicators to replace input-based indicators Increasing sample size and scope of services
industries covered by the Quarterly Survey of Services (QSS)
Exploring supplementing QSS data using Goods and Services Tax data
On-going and Future Development
Development of Services Producer Price Indices
Deflation by price index is preferred over extrapolation with volume indicator to obtain real measures of output
Conclusion
Need for timeliness and reduction of respondent burden adds to the challenge of developing short term indicators for services
Despite these difficulties, DOS has developed a fairly comprehensive range of timely short-term indicators of the performance of the services industries
DOS will continue to review and develop more appropriate indicators and methodologies for the evolving services economy
Thank You