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Developing Trends: May 2013

Overview

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen

Dennis (Overview and Trade), and is comprised of Tehmina Khan (High-Income, Industrial Production and Business sentiment), Eung Ju Kim (High-

income and Finance), John Baffes and Damir Cosic (Commodities), and Sanket Mohapatra (Exchange rate) Ekaterine Vashakmadze (Inflation), and

Adil Islam (Statistical Annex). The report was prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns.

This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

Quarterly GDP trends diverge among major economies. Supported by a pick-up in consumption expendi-tures (3.2 percent, q/q saar) and gross private domestic investment (12.3%), US GDP expanded at 2.5% in Q1 2013 (up from 0.4% in Q4 2012), notwithstanding the drag from the ongoing fiscal consolidation (government spending contracted by 4.1%). Q1 2013 GDP for Japan also accelerated at an annualized pace of 3.5 percent (q/q saar) from 0.2 percent in Q4 2012, however unlike the US, public demand (government consumption and public investment) contributed 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth in Q1 2013. Further, private demand, in particular private consumption spurred GDP growth in Japan. For both the United States and Japan, the contribution of net exports to GDP growth was negative. In con-trast Euro Area GDP contracted for the sixth consecutive quarter in Q1 2013 (-0.6% q/q saar) reflecting subdued conditions there. Nonetheless, Euro Area activity is expected to pick-up later in the year as the drag from ongoing fiscal consolidation reduces and credit begins to flow to the real sector. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, China‘s GDP growth remained relatively robust even though it decelerated to 6.6% (7.8% on a year-on-year basis), buoyed on by growth in financial intermediation, wholesale and retail

trade, and construction sectors. With the exception of a few other countries, Q1 2013 GDP data for other developing countries are yet to be released. Nonetheless, with industrial production in the rest of the de-veloping countries growing at an annualized pace of 3.1% (q/q saar) in Q1 2013, slightly up from the 2.8 percent registered in Q4 2012, this suggests real-side activity has in general kept apace, albeit with dif-ferences across countries. Going forward, however, global business sentiment indicators point to a decel-erating pace of expansion. Indeed, JP Morgan-Markit’s Global Composite Purchasing Manager Index declined from 53.0 in March to 51.9 in April, with declines in sentiment cutting across both high-income (USA, Germany ) and developing countries (China, India, Turkey, Brazil).

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Japan USA Euro Area China

Q4 2012 Q1 2013

Quarterly GDP Performance in Selected Economies(%ch, q/q seassonally adjusted annualized rates)

Source: World Bank and Datastream

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Jan‐11 Apr‐11 Jul‐11 Oct‐11 Jan‐12 Apr‐12 Jul‐12 Oct‐12 Jan‐13

Equities (new issues)

Syndicated bank lending

Bond issuance

Total flows

Note: Bars represent 3‐month moving averages of reported flows; Line shows total unsmoothed flows.Source: Dealogic and World Bank Prospects Group.

Private capital flows to developing countries were robust in the first four months of 2013

Gross capital flows to developing countries, $ billions

April 24, 2013

Developing Trends: May 2013

Although real-side activity could decelerate in Q2, financial flows to developing countries continue to remain solid through the start of Q2. After two solid quarters - 2012Q4 and 2013Q1- gross capital flows to develop-ing countries got off to another strong start in the second quarter. At $65.8 billion in April, gross flows were up 42 percent from a year earlier and 13.4 percent from March levels. The increase in capital flows was largely driven by bond issuances, which doubled in April, reaching a monthly record $44.4 billion. Bond market access for non-investment grade borrowers continued to improve, with Rwanda issuing its first bond. Vietnam, Papua New Guinea, Ghana, Nigeria, and Bangladesh are expected to follow suit to take advantage of investors’ ap-petite for higher yielding developing-country sovereign bonds. Equity flows were also up slightly. However, bank lending plummeted 68 percent in April on the back of a sharp drop in loans to Europe and Central Asia (mostly Russia). Overall, for the first 4 months of the year capital flows are up 50% from year-earlier levels.

Notwithstanding strong capital flows, developing country bond yields have risen since January despite the general “risk-off” phase in global financial markets. Indeed, the cost of international bond financing has gone up this year after reaching a record low level in early January. Unlike previous episodes, the recent rise in the yields did not occur during a period of heightened global risk-aversion. Moreover, the widening in secondary-market bond spreads was not associated with a decline in benchmark US yields. These developments could be consistent with the beginning of a new trend where the price of risk returns to levels that are more normal. The trend decline in spreads for developing countries over the last five years is partly explained by their im-proved credit quality. However it also reflects the very low policy rates and quantitative easing in high-income countries, with easy monetary conditions having suppressed the price of risk in both developed and developing countries. Recent increases possibly reflect market expectations that the pace of quantitative eas-ing in the United States may ease soon even though Fed policymakers have reassured the markets that they will remain accommodative. These developments could also be due to increasing concern on the part of in-vestors about inflation of asset prices in some developing countries and recent easing of commodity prices.

Remittance flows to developing countries continue to increase, albeit it with differences across regions. Re-mittances, an important financial flow to developing countries, rose to $401 billion in 2012, up 5.3 percent. However, this aggregate story masks important differences across countries. For instance, the large number of migrants in the Arabian Gulf generated large increases in remittance flows from the Gulf Cooperation Council countries to South Asia and the Middle East and North Africa. By contrast, developing regions that are more closely tied to high-income Europe (Eastern Europe, Latin America and Sub Saharan Africa) , where the pro-tracted debt crisis took a severe toll on economic activity, experienced much weaker increases. Remittance flows to developing countries are projected to increase 6.1percent in 2013 and to gradually firm to a 10.2 percent rate of increase in 2015 – reflecting gradually strengthening growth in high-income countries.

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All developingcountries

East Asia andPacific

Europe andCentral Asia

Latin Americaand Caribbean

Middle-East andNorth Africa

South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica

2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f

Remittance flows to developing regions, 2012 - 2015(percentage change)

Source: World Bank e‐ estimate f‐ forecast

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(%)

Implicit Yield= Yield on US 10 year treasury+EMBIG Bond Spread

Source: JP Morgan and World Bank

The record low borrowing cost on Jan 3rd = 4.2%

Cost of bond financing increased in February and March

April 24, 2013

High income (1)

The US recovery is being supported by consum-er spending, but facing fiscal tightening chal-lenges ahead

US GDP grew by 2.5% (q/q saar) in Q1, up from a very weak 0.4% outturn in Q4, supported by an acceleration in consumer spending and residen-tial and inventory investment. Equities reached record highs in May on growing optimism.

Consumer spending has remained resilient (although weakening slightly), amid signs of continued recovery in labor and housing mar-kets, and confidence improved in May.

However IP growth eased to 3.6% (3m/3m saar) in April from 4.4% in March and May manufac-turing surveys suggest weakness ahead. Fiscal tightening, which weighed negatively on growth in Q1, will likely remain a drag going forward.

Economic activity in the Euro Area remains de-pressed but shows signs of stabilizing

Euro Area GDP fell at a slower pace of 0.9% (q/q saar) in Q1, a sixth consecutive quarterly decline but slower than Q4’s 2.3% fall. France succumbed to recession in Q1 while Germany grew by a mod-est 0.3% after a 2.7% drop in Q4 last year sup-ported by private spending.

The rate of GDP declines in the periphery econo-mies eased in Q1, notably Portugal. And forward looking manufacturing April PMIs also show slow-er declines in France, Italy, Spain and Greece. That said unemployment continues to increase while credit remains tight.

German PMIs point to contracting output, but factory orders, a gauge of future investment spending gained momentum in March. The Ger-man GfK consumer confidence index for May also rose to a 6-year high suggesting continued sup-port for private consumption spending.

Activity remained strong in Japan supported by a weaker yen and aggressive monetary easing.

GDP rose by 3.5% (q/q saar) in Q1, up from 1.0% in Q4, led by higher private spending and exports.

Industrial activity and consumer spending re-mained strong, although easing slightly . IP rose by 8.0% (3m/3m saar) in March from 10.1% in February. Retail sales rose by 3.4% (3m/3m saar) down from 4.1% in February.

Manufacturing PMIs point to faster expansion in output while consumer confidence is hovering at close to its highest levels since mid-2007.

US data are mixed, suggesting a slow recovery supported by still resilient consumer spending and improve-ments in housing and labor markets. Activity in Japan has been boosted by aggressive monetary easing. Euro Area GDP contracted for the sixth quarter in a row but at a slower pace, although forward looking PMI indica-tors show deteriorating business conditions in Germany, its largest economy. US manufacturing surveys from May point to weakness ahead, but consumer sentiment is showing signs of improvement.

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Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13

Euro AreaUSAJapanGermanyItaly50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Markit Last updated: May. 16, 2013

May 22, 2013 page 1

High income (2)

G3 stock markets continued to rally in May, with Japanese stocks outperforming its counterparts.

Japan’s Topix reached a 4 1/2 year high in mid-May, continuing to benefit from a weaker yen that has supported Japanese export. Japan’s Topix has advanced 46% thus far this year, out-performing all major stock indexes in the world amid unprecedented monetary stimulus plans.

U.S. stocks remained resilient in May with both the S&P 500 and Dow marking multiple record highs. The S&P has gained 17% this year and 146% from a 12-year low reached in March 2009.

German’s DAX has also continued to hit new highs in May, rallying 6.1%, amid positive eco-nomic data in Euro-zone. 10.3% thus far this year.

Credit default swap spreads for troubled Euro-Area economies have tightened by a half since last summer.

CDS spreads for Italy and Spain have continued to improve in May, tightening by 23 and 15 basis points (bps), as Italy formed a new government in late-April, ending two months of political grid-lock. And their current spreads are less than half of record levels reached in last summer.

Spreads for Portugal are currently at 323 bps, down significantly from last year’s high of 1,561 bps reached in early-January.

The narrowing of spreads has been influenced by the European Union’s ban on short-selling gov-ernment bond using credit default swap.

Borrowing costs for Italy and Spain have risen slightly in May, while those for Portugal have tumbled.

The benchmark 10-year yields on Spanish and Italian government bonds have widened by 17 bps and 13 bps thus far May after they reached 2-year lows in late-April.

Nevertheless, the 10-year borrowings costs for Italy and Spain have declined by 106 bps and 60 bps this year.

Meanwhile, comparable Portuguese bond yields have tumbled 41 bps this month as the country sold its first 10-year bond since its bailout.

Notably, Greek bond rallied following rating up-grade by Fitch Ratings, sending the 10-year yield to the lowest level since June 2010.

G3 equities have remained robust in May, with Japan’s Topix reaching a 4 1/2 year high and U.S. and German benchmarks marking multiple record highs. The cost of insuring Italian and Spanish debt have dropped by more than a half since last summer. Portugal posted the largest narrowing in CDS spreads among Eurozone economies. Furthermore, borrowing costs for Italy, Spain, and Portugal have tightened considerably thus far this year.

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1,200

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2,000


PortugalIrelandSpainItalyBelgium

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: May. 22, 2013

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Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

S&P-500 (USA)DAX (Germany)Topix (Japan)

G-3 equity marketsIndex, January 1 2010=100


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Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13

Daily yields on 10-year government bonds

Yield (percent)

Italy

Portugal

Source: Bloomberg and Development Prospects Group

Spain

May 22, 2013

Industrial Activity

Global IP growth has strengthened, supported by mo-mentum acceleration in high income economies Developing country IP growth remained relative-

ly flat at 4.1 percent in the first quarter, as weaker growth in China (9.7% seasonally adjusted annu-alized rate (saar)) was offset by recovery in growth in Latin America and Europe and Central Asia .

Output growth in high-income countries contin-ued to strengthen, driven by above trend expan-sion in the United States and other high income countries outside the Euro Area. US IP growth stood at 5% (saar) in the first quarter.

Growth in Japan rebounded to close to 8% saar helped in part by the large depreciation of the Yen.

Capital-goods orders point to increased global capi-tal spending in early 2013. After a sharp decline in mid-2012, G3 capital

goods orders recovered briskly in H2 2012, with shipments following a similar path. Capital- goods orders rose at a more moderate pace in the first part of Q1 2013, with US capital goods or-ders rising at a 16.7% annualized pace, down from a 20% expansion in Q4 2012. In Japan, after a robust recovery in Q4 (12%) capital goods or-ders growth slowed to 3.3% in the three months leading to February, while in Germany capital goods orders rose 4.4% over the same period, almost half the pace recorded in Q4.

Inventory levels diverge between the United States and the Euro Area. Inventory levels in the United States are currently

above pre-crisis levels, reflecting the relative strength and maturity of the recovery in that economy (both the housing and labor markets continue to show sustained improvements).

In the Euro Area, however, inventory levels re-main well below their pre-crisis averages – partly due to weak growth, but also because firms lack confidence that demand will firm anytime soon. While weak inventory levels are a factor contrib-uting to weak demand in Europe, the low inven-tory levels may also be a source of upside risk. If activity does start to strengthen, firms will need to increase production even more quickly in or-der to replenish inventories.

Global industrial production expanded at a faster pace in the first quarter of 2013, supported by a surprisingly strong outturn in the US, and recovery in industrial output in Latin America and the Europe and Central Asia, and notwithstanding a disappointing performance in the East Asia region. Capital-goods orders point to in-creased global capital spending in early 2013, but momentum may be weakening. Meanwhile inventories levels in the United States and Euro Area diverge, with weak inventory levels in the Euro Area representing a source of upside risk for output growth in coming months.

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Jan '00 Jan '02 Jan '04 Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '10 Jan '12

China Developing countries excl.China

World High income

Global industrial production growth firms in the first quarterpercent, 3m/3m saar

May 22, 2013

Business Sentiment

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s survey indices (PMI) deteriorated slightly in April Growth in global manufacturing worsened in

April, with the JP Morgan Global Manufacturing output PMI inching down to 50.5, the lowest reading since December, from 51.1 in March.

Business sentiment in the US deteriorated to a six-month low of 52.1, down 2.6 points from March.

The Euro Area sentiment inched down to 46.7 as sentiment weakened considerably in Germany with the PMI falling to 48.1, the lowest level this year. Despite slight improvements in sentiment in France, Italy and Spain PMIs remained at de-pressed (sub-50) levels in these and several other Euro Area countries.

Sentiment improved markedly in Japan rising 0.8 points to 51.1.

Sentiment in developing countries also deteriorated, mostly on account of the deterioration in East Asia. PMI in major developing countries such as Brazil,

China, India, Mexico, and Turkey all declined, but indicate ongoing expansion albeit at a slower pace.

China saw the largest decline in the PMI in East Asia, losing 1.3 points , while Vietnam and Indo-nesia saw an improvement in sentiment of 0.3 and 0.4 points , respectively.

In Latin America. Brazil’s sentiment declined 1 point, but remained ion growth territory (50.8).

Business sentiment deteriorated in the largest econo-mies in South Asia and Latin America Business confidence remained relatively stable in

Russia, with the PMI inching down 0.1 points, but remaining in growth territory.

Business sentiment in India continued to deterio-rated dropping an additional 0.9 points in April.

Business sentiment indexes suggest a slower pace of global activity for the second quarter of 2013. Business sentiment in major developing countries remains positive but has eased in recent months, suggesting growth may slow in the second quarter following the very strong rebound in the fourth quarter of 2012 and first quar-ter of 2013.

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2006 2008 2010 2012

Developing Countries High Income Countries

Business sentiment deteriorates in April

Diffusion index, 50=no growth

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Jan '06 Jan '08 Jan '10 Jan '12

East Asia & Pacific Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Business sentiment worsens in developing countriesDiffusion index, 50 = no growth

May 22, 2013

International Trade (1)

Global trade expansion decelerated in Q1 2013.

Global trade increased at an annualized pace of 4.1% in Q1 2013, less than half the pace of ex-pansion in Q4 2012 (9.3%).

However, while developing countries sustained their acceleration in import demand between the Q4 2012 and Q12013, the pace of expansion in high-income imports decelerated, mostly driven by weaker import demand from the United States as well as still contracting import demand from China. With business sentiment indicators for both high-income and developing countries sug-gesting a softer patch in economic activity for Q2, global import demand is likely to weaken further in Q2.

The pick up in import demand among develop-ing countries is broad-based.

Through Q1 2013 available data suggests that the expansion in developing countries was broad-based across all developing regions. However early indicators are that import growth will likely decelerate in Q2 2013. In East Asia and the Pacif-ic, where data for April is available import growth decelerated to an annualized pace of 9.8% in the three months to April. Indeed, already in South Asia import demand has decelerated for the third consecutive month through April. Further Pur-chasing Manager Indices in April for a number of large emerging economies (China, Brazil, Turkey, India) also point to the weakening in activity.

Data lags behind in Sub Saharan Africa and the Mid-dle East and North Africa. However latest data shows Sub Saharan Africa to have registered a rebound in import demand in Q1 2013, while the contraction in the Middle East and North Africa deepened. Data for both sub Saharan Africa and the Middle

East and North Africa lag behind. Latest available data shows that, as was the case for other devel-oping countries, import demand for Sub Saharan Africa strengthened in January 2013 at a robust 12.8% annualized pace.

However in the Middle East and North Africa, the contraction in import demand actually deepened (-13.3% in January, 3m/3m saar), reflecting the effects of political challenges on demand condi-tions in the region.

Following the cyclical rebound in global trade in Q4 2012, the global trade expansion continued through Q1 2013, albeit at a weaker pace—mostly on account of a decelerating import demand among high-income countries. Going forward, with business sentiment indicators suggesting a softer patch in Q2 2013, it is likely that import demand in both developing country and high-income coun-tries will weaken. Indeed, where data is available for April, this is already being observed.

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Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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East Asia & Pacific East Asia & Pacific (ex. China)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


May 22, 2013

International Trade (2)

There has been a broad-based deceleration in export growth in Q1 2013.

Consistent with the decelerating pace of import demand, export growth among both high-income and developing countries decelerated in the Q1 2013 compared with Q4 2012.

However, unlike high-income countries where export growth contracted (-1.0%, q/q saar) ex-port growth continued expanding at a double digit pace for developing countries as an aggre-gate. However excluding China, developing countries exports growth expanded at a much weaker 3.5% in Q1 2013 compared with an ex-pansion of 11.6% in Q4 2012.

The strength of expansion in exports among de-veloping regions differed in Q1 2013.

Among developing regions for which data is available for through March 2013, the pace of export expansion was strongest for East Asia (excl. China it was less strong and actually decel-erated), and South Asia (where the pace picked up). Weighed down by contracting export growth in the two largest economies in the region, Tur-key and Russia, export growth in Europe and Cen-tral Asia region decelerated, but stayed positive on aggregate.

Latin America was the only region whose exports contracted in Q1 2013 (-8.4% q/q saar), reflect-ing decelerating import demand from its major trading partners (China and the united States).

Exports in both Sub Saharan Africa and Middle East both recovered by Q1 2013.

Data for both Sub Saharan Africa and the Middle East lags behind other developing regions. How-ever available data through January shows a strong rebound in export growth for Sub Saharan Africa and strong growth in the Middle East and North Africa region (unlike the decline the lagged recovery in its imports).

Consistent with the weakening of import demand, export growth slowed in Q1 2013 across both high-income and developing regions. Among developing regions where data is available for Q1 2013, export growth was strongest in East Asia and the Pacific as well as in South Asia. However, though export growth was weaker in the Europe and Central Asia region, it continued expanding, unlike in Latin America and the Caribbean where export growth contracted in Q1 2013.

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WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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East Asia & Pacific East Asia & Pacific (ex. China)Europe & Central Asia Latin America & Caribbean

Regional export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


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South AsiaSub Saharan AfricaSouth AfricaMiddle East and North Africa

Regional export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


May 22, 2013

Commodities (1)

Oil prices recover, Brent down 14.2%; WTI down 3.2% since the mid-February peaks. After topping at $119/bbl in mid-February, Brent

(the international marker) has reversed course and by mid-May has hovered around $100/bbl. Oil demand picture is weak at a time when oil supplies are plentiful from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources, and US crude oil inventories have risen to an all-time record high of above 395 mil-lion barrels, in data going back to 1982.

WTI price (US mid-continent price), has fallen less than Brent as producers are by-passing Cush-ing, Oklahoma and transporting oil directly to refineries in the Gulf by train, in turn strengthen-ing WTI prices relative to Brent. The gap between Brent and WTI narrowed to US$ 7/bbl by mid-May 2013, the lowest level in 7 months.

Metal prices have rebounded little in May.

Metal prices have sharply reversed course since mid-February and most are down on a year-to-date basis. Prices of nickel, tin, aluminum and copper have declined by 19%, 16%, 13% and 11%, respectively, from their mid-February peaks to the 3rd week of May.

Most base metals are well supplied in 2013 which is likely to exert downside pressure on prices. Copper and aluminum are well supplied as evi-denced by large stocks at the major metals ex-changes (10% and 4% of annual consumption for aluminum and copper respectively).

Combined stocks of copper at metals exchanges have increased by 53% in the first four months of the year.

Precious metals prices are flat in May after experienc-ing their sharpest decline in 30 years in April.

Precious metals have been on the decline since early 2012Q4 and price of silver, gold and plati-num are down 17%, 25% and 3%, respectively.

In addition to diminishing concerns regarding inflationary pressures, the announcement of po-tential sales of gold by Cyprus’ central bank pre-cipitated liquidation of gold holdings by institu-tional investors’ (ETFs). Indeed, precious metals experienced one of the sharpest declines on rec-ord on April 15.

Holdings of gold by ETFs are down (17% year-to-date), while silver and platinum are up 2% and 30%, respectively, as the latter have some indus-trial use.

Prices of most industrial commodities (crude oil and metals) as well as precious metals have rebounded little in May after the precipitous declines in April. However, prices are still far from mid-February peaks as the markets remain well supplied and demand remains sluggish amid signs of a soft patch in the global recovery.

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BrentWest-Texas Intermediate

Oil pricesUSD per barrel


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TinCopperNickelAluminium

Metals PricesIndex, January 2012=100


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GoldPlatinumSilver (right axis)

US cents/troy ouncePrecious Metal Prices

US$/troy ounce

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Handy&Harman Last updated: May. 22, 2013

May 22, 2013

Commodities (2)

Maize and wheat supply outlook improves; rice market remains well-supplied.

In its May 10, 2013 update, the USDA confirmed the improved outlook for the 2012/13 global grain crop. Global maize output is expected to reach 666 million tons in 2013/14, almost 13% higher than current season’s crop; the stock-to-use ratio (S/U) is expected to reach 16.6% in 2013/14, up from current season’s 14.4%.

Wheat supplies are expected to improve as well with output up 7% and S/U ratio almost 27%, marginally up from the current season’s 28.6%.

The rice market continues to be well supplied with production estimated at almost 480 million tons, 6 million tons above consumption, and the S/U ratio 22.7%, remarkably similar to historical norms.

Grain prices have been remarkably stable follow-ing USDA’s May 10 update.

Following sharp declines following USDA’s quar-terly stocks, maize has been traded remarkably stable around 650 US cents per bushel since the beginning of May. Wheat prices have been de-clining, from 730 earlier in May to 680 US per bushel later in the month. Yet, price risks for the 2013/14 crop are on the upside at the moment as delayed plantings in the US could upset markets.

Rice prices have been remarkably stable during the past few months fluctuating very little, around US$550 per ton. Rice price risks, however, are on the downside, and depend crucially how the Thai government handles the vast amounts of stocks it has accumulated under its rice purchas-ing program.

Supply concerns boost cotton prices while rubber prices find support on news of strong demand; separately, edible oil prices weaken further.

Cotton prices have reversed their declining trend as new data show that global cotton production is expected to decline 6% in 2013/14, which comes on the top of this season’s 5% decline. Natural rubber prices reversed the trend as well following news of tire demand pick up in the US and China and relatively strong Brent prices—natural rubber competes with synthetic rubber, which uses crude oil as a key input.

Separately, the edible oil index declined almost 3.5% in April, to reach a 32-month low. Global edible oil production is expected to reach yet an-other record in 2013/14.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) confirmed its upbeat outlook for the 2013-14 crop in its May 10 update following a higher than expected actual stock report in March. Bothe maize and wheat markets are expected to regain most of the weather-induced losses incurred last summer. Raw material prices continued their slide; edible oil prices weakened as well.

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WheatMaize

Grain pricesUS$ per metric tonne

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and CME Last updated: May. 22, 2013

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Cotton [Left]Rubber [Right]

Raw material pricesUS$ per kilogram

Source: World Bank Prospects Group, ICE and SGX Last updated: May. 22, 2013

US$ per kilogram

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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Marked improvements in both maize and wheat markets(stock‐to‐use ratio, percent)

Maize

Wheat

Source: US Department of Agriculture (May 10, 2013)

May 22, 2013

International Finance (1)

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East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle-East & North Africa

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


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MSCI Regional Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


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Emerging MarketsDeveloped Markets

MSCI Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


Developing-country CDS rates have narrowed from April highs, due mostly to a sharp decline in Argentina spreads.

CDS spreads for developing countries have tight-ened by 56bps on average from April highs, driv-en mostly by a sharp drop in Argentina spreads, which decreased 1,166bps.

Excluding Argentina, however, developing-country sovereigns also saw their spreads de-clined 18 bps since early April.

Despite the recent narrowing in CDS spreads, Argentina remains as the riskiest developing-country sovereign credit.

Developing-country equities bounced back from April’s lows, but they continued to underperform those of developing countries. Developing-country stocks have advanced 2.2%

thus far May amid the positive global backdrop, after posting a sharp sell-off in April, compared with a 4.2% gain for developed countries.

Developing-country shares have gained only 0.7% this year compared to a 16.7% gain for ma-ture-market equities. Developing-country stocks have been hampered by worries over slowing economic growth (especially in China) and falling commodity prices due mostly to strong dollar.

Stock markets across developing regions have rebounded in May, except Latin America.

General strength was shown among developing country stock markets in May, with Emerging Eu-ropean shares faring better than other regions .

Both Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia region-al indices have increased by 3.2% and 2.2% thus far in May, respectively. In contrast, Latin Ameri-can stock markets have lost 0.3%.

Among the BRIC countries, Brazil (-1.3%) and Russia (-0.1%) were the worst performers this month. In contrast, both Chin (6%) and India 94%) posted considerable gains.

CDS spreads for developing countries have narrowed from April highs, driven mostly by a sharp drop in Ar-gentinian spreads. Developed-country equities have bounced back in May, but they have continued to under-perform those of developing economies in May. Stock markets in Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia re-gions have advanced in May, while Latin America have posted a small drop.

May 22, 2013


Inflows to developing-county bond and equity funds are down slightly in April

Emerging-market bond funds posted inflows of about $4 billion in April, eased from an average monthly inflows of $9.2 billion in the first quarter.

Notably, EM bond funds received positive flows for 49 consecutive week since last June, suggest-ing investors are not rotating out of EM bonds yet despite global stock market rally this year.

Meanwhile, EM equity funds posted a second consecutive outflows of about $2.7 billion in April, up from $1.7 billion in previous month. After reaching a record high of $24.9 billion in January, and equity flows tumbled in March.

Capital flows increased in April as a strong bond issuance more than offset a sharp drop in bank lending. Gross capital flows to developing countries rose

by 13.4% to $65.8 billion in April, as strong bond flows offset faltering bank flows.

And flows for the first four months of the year amounted to $240.5 billion, up 50% from the like period of 2012, with all segments of the market strengthening considerably.

In 2013, Capital flows climbed in every develop-ing-country regions, except Middle East and North Africa.

A surge in bank lending and bond issuance in Russia helped to boost flows to the Europe and Central Asia.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Bond IssuanceEquity IssuanceSyndicated Bank Loans

Gross Capital Flows to Dev eloping Regions$ bil l ion, 3-mon. m.a.

Source: World Bank Prospec ts Group and Datastream Last updated: May. 22, 2013

Borrowing cost for developing-country sovereign debt have widened this year, after reaching a record low in early January. Developing-country bond funds continued to receive inflows in April, indicating investors are currently not rotating out of EM bonds, but equity funds remained weak with further outflows. Gross capital flows in the first four month of 2013 are up 50% from the like period last year.

Borrowing costs for developing-country sover-eign bonds have widened thus far this year. Developing-country sovereign spreads have risen

31 basis points (bps) since early January, when they reached this year’s low of 245 bps.

Unlike previous episodes, the recent widening in the spreads took place during a period of height-ened global risk–aversion.

Furthermore, developing-country bond spreads have widened this year amid rising benchmark U.S. long-term Treasury yields and despite the continued improvement of developing-country credit quality.

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13

Source: Bloomberg and Development Prospects Group

(JP Morgan EMBIG spreads, basis points )

Developing-country bond spreads sicne June 2011

EM sovereign bond spreads

2000‐2007Average

‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

EM Fixed Income Funds

EM Equity Funds

$ billions

2011 2012

Foreign portfolio inflows to developing-country assets

May 22, 2013


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

International Equity Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

International Bond Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLat in America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Source: Deallogic, DEC Prospects Group Last updated: May. 22, 2013

Bank Lending$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)

Equity flows remained steady in April.

Equity placements (a combination of IPOs and follow-on issuance) reached $11 billion in April, up 10.4% from March. Year-to-date flows are up 52% to $42.6 billion from a year before.

The increase in equity flows in the first four month of 2013 was due to the strong follow-on issuance from Latin America and Emerging Eu-rope.

Brazil, China, and India continued to dominate overall equity volume this year, accounting for 58% of total equity issuance; but there were also an increase in equity flows to other countries, including Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Chile, and Mexico.

Bond flows rose to new record highs in April, boosted by the Brazil’s largest developing-country corporate bond issue ever.

Bond issuance nearly doubled to $44.8 billion in April, posting the new monthly highs on record. And year-to-date flows stand 28% above the lev-els reached in the like period of 2012.

Corporate borrowers continued to dominate bond flows in April, with Russian firms issuing rec-ord international bonds ($12.8 billion) and Petrobras (Brazil’s state-owned oil company) sell-ing the largest developing-country corporate bonds ever ($11 billion).

On sovereign side, Rwanda tapped the interna-tional bond market for the first time ever in April, raising $400 million in 10-year global bonds.

Bank lending is down sharply in April, but year-to-date volume is more than doubled from a year earlier.

Syndicated bank loans to developing countries fell to an estimated $10 billion in April, down sharply from about $26 billion in March.

However, bank flows more than doubled year-on-year to about $77 billion in the first four months of 2013 despite the a sharp drop in the number of syndicated loan deals.

Most of the increase was led by large loans to Russia, where lending rose five fold from a year before .

Equity flows have remained resilient in 2013, with year-to-date flows rising 52% from a year before. Bond flows posted a fresh record high in April, boosted by the Brazil’s biggest corporate issuance on record. Corporate bor-rowers continued to dominate bond issuance, led by Brazilian and Russian firms. Bank lending is down sharply in April, but year-to-date volume is more than doubled from a year before.

May 22, 2013

Exchange Rates

Sharply relaxed monetary policy in Japan caused the yen to depreciate 21% in REER terms since September 2012. The euro appreciated 3.7% and the US dollar by 2% in the same period.

A sharply relaxed monetary policy in Japan to counter a decade-long deflation and support economic growth caused the Japanese yen to depreciate 21% in real effective (REER) terms between September 2012 and April 2013.

In the same period, the US dollar appreciated 2% in REER terms and the euro by 3.7%. The Euro has appreciated a stronger 7.1% in REER terms com-pared to July 2012 level (following ECB head Mario Draghi’s pledge to stand behind the cur-rency union); but weakened 1.3% since February, impacted by weakness in the Euro Area economy.

Developing-country REER appreciation picked pace in recent months due to capital inflows, yen depreciation, or a combination of both.

Emerging market currencies appreciated in REER terms in recent months as financial market stabi-lization and US quantitative easing (QE) pushed capital flows towards high-yielding emerging market assets, and yen depreciation put upward pressure on Japan’s trade-partner currencies.

The GDP-weighted average REER for developing countries appreciated by 4.7% since September 2012, a considerably faster pace compared with the 1.5% appreciation in the previous 24 months.

East Asian trade-partners of Japan have faced sharp REER appreciation since September 2012, particularly Thailand (12.5%), China (5.8%), Indo-nesia (5.4%), and Malaysia (4.4%).

The South African rand and Indian rupee were exceptions to the trend of real appreciation of developing-country currencies since Sept. 2012.

The Brazilian real and Russian ruble appreciated 7.4% and 3.8% from robust capital inflows, de-spite a recent easing of commodity prices. The Mexican peso also benefited (8.3% REER appreci-ation) from inflows into government bonds.

The Turkish lira continued to strengthen from capital inflows (7.1% in REER terms), with a stable nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) and large inflation differential with trade-partner countries.

The Indian rupee rose on improved capital in-flows (3.1% in REER terms), despite growth con-cerns and a wider current account deficit. How-ever, the South African rand continued to weaken (-6.1% in REER terms) with slower growth, partly related to earlier mining sector tensions.

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


JapanUSAEuro Area

High income real effectiv e exchange ratesIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


76

80

84

88

92

96

100

104

108

112


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaMexico RussiaTurkey South Africa

Dev eloping nominal effectiv e exchange rateIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115


Brazil ChinaIndia IndonesiaMexico RussiaTurkey South Africa

Dev eloping real effectiv e exchange rateIndex, Jan 2011 = 100


Sharply relaxed monetary policy in Japan caused the yen to depreciate by 21% in trade-weighted real effec-tive exchange rate (REER) terms since September 2012. The euro appreciated 3.7% in REER terms and the US dollar by 2% in this period. The appreciation of developing-country currencies also picked up pace (4.7% since September 2012), reflecting both the yen depreciation and a surge in capital inflows, notwithstanding a recent easing of crude oil and industrial commodity prices for commodity-exporting countries.

May 22, 2013

Inflation

Global inflation continue to ease in both developing and high income countries Inflation eased further in developing countries as

an aggregate to a 6 percent annualized rate in the three months to April reflecting a decline in commodity prices and moderation in economic activity after a strong rebound.

High-income country inflation showed signs of stabilization in April following a steep decline in the earlier months.

Low-income country quarterly inflation which accelerated in the last quarter of 2012 due to grain price related hike also showed some eas-ing.

Inflation continues to accelerate in EAP (excluding China) led by Indonesia, eased in ECA and ticked down in LAC Inflation continues to be broadly in-check across

the EAP region but continues to be above the targeted rate in Indonesia. China’s inflation eased in April, partly due to curbs on spending. Inflation remains subdued in Malaysia and Thailand re-flecting currency appreciation and slowing growth.

Inflation remains moderate in ECA reflecting eas-ing food prices and weak economic activity. In Turkey however inflationary pressures remain fueled by easing of policy.

Inflation eased in LAC following an earlier grain price related hike, but remains high in Argentina and Venezuela reflecting sharp devaluations. In Brazil, tightening of the policy supported the eas-ing of inflationary pressures.

MENA is seeing price pressure escalating reflecting currency depreciation in Egypt and also supply con-straints due to political tensions. Inflation is easing in South Africa following earli-

er build-up related to fiscal relaxation, currency depreciation and private sector wage hikes.

A complete pass-through of earlier monetary pol-icy tightening and commodity price moderation has translated in easing price pressures in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Price pressures remain present in South Asia due to supply side bottlenecks.

Inflation momentum accelerated in MENA re-flecting supply disruptions due to political ten-sions in Syria, currency devaluation in Egypt and economic sanctions in Iran.

Inflationary pressures continue to ease in developing countries and show signs of stabilization in high income economies. This reflects continued commodity price decline and decelerating activity in some regions. Price pressures continue to be present in MENA and SAS due local conditions, including supply related constraints. Inflation eased in SST following a temporary grain price related hike. Price pressures are also present in a number of selected economies where easy policies are combined with capacity constraints.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Developing CPI inflationHigh-income CPI inflation

Dev eloping and high income inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group Last updated: May. 22, 2013

0

4

8

12

16

20


Middle East & North Africa excl. Iran and SyriaSouth AsiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA inflationPercent change, 3m/3msaar


0

2

4

6

8

10

12


ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & Car ibbean

EAP, ECA & LAC inflationPercent change, 3m/3m saar


May 22, 2013

Average 2012 2013 2012 20131999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

World 1.8 10.5 6.9 2.4 2.4 -0.9 2.1 3.8 -1.5 1.2 0.9 -0.2High - in c ome cou n tries 0.3 8.0 2.5 0.5 -1.1 -2.8 -2.4 2.5 0.6 -0.3 0.5 0.4

Industrial countries 0.3 7.7 2.2 0.5 -0.9 -2.7 -2.7 3.0 0.7 -0.2 0.5 0.4United States 0.2 5.7 3.4 3.6 2.9 0.3 2.6 4.4 0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.3Japan -1.0 16.6 -2.3 -1.0 -7.7 -15.8 -7.2 8.9 2.4 0.3 0.6 0.9Euro Area 0.1 6.3 3.1 -2.3 -2.0 0.0 -7.8 0.4 0.7 -0.5 0.2 0.8United Kingdom -1.0 2.1 -0.7 -2.3 -3.6 2.3 -8.3 0.7 1.1 -1.4 0.9 0.7

Other high income 0.3 7.7 2.2 0.5 -0.9 -2.7 -2.7 3.0 0.7 -0.2 0.5 0.4Hong Kong (China) -3.7 3.4 0.8 -0.8 -5.9 8.8 1.9 .. -0.2 .. .. ..Singapore 5.6 29.6 7.9 0.2 -0.4 -21.0 8.7 -10.9 6.9 -8.9 -0.6 6.3Taiwan (China) 3.4 26.9 5.0 -0.1 0.3 5.0 5.6 -3.9 -0.8 0.7 -0.5 -2.6

Dev elopin g cou n tries 6.5 11.9 9.0 3.3 4.0 0.0 4.2 4.4 -2.4 1.8 1.1 -0.4East Asia and Pacific 11.7 14.6 11.7 9.2 5.0 8.1 14.4 8.6 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.0

China 13.7 15.5 13.7 10.0 5.4 9.7 13.2 9.7 1.2 0.4 0.6 1.1Indonesia 3.4 4.7 4.0 4.1 0.2 -0.4 39.6 1.1 1.4 0.3 -0.4 -0.2Thailand 8.6 14.6 -9.1 2.3 24.6 -12.7 9.2 -2.0 -4.7 -0.7 -1.5 4.1Malaysia 4.7 7.2 1.2 4.4 -5.6 -0.4 16.5 -10.0 -2.0 -0.3 -1.1 -1.2

Europe and Central Asia .. 12.3 9.6 2.4 4.3 -1.8 3.3 3.8 -3.3 2.3 1.4 -0.8Russian Federation 4.1 8.3 4.8 2.5 -3.2 2.6 -1.5 1.4 -0.6 -0.5 1.3 0.9Turkey .. 12.4 9.7 2.5 4.5 -2.0 3.4 3.8 -3.4 2.3 1.4 -0.9Poland 6.3 10.8 7.1 1.8 -2.1 0.0 -2.0 -1.4 -1.4 1.3 -0.9 0.7Czech Republic 3.0 8.1 6.0 -0.7 -1.3 -4.8 -9.2 5.1 0.9 -0.1 1.5 -0.2

Latin America and Caribbean 1.4 6.6 3.2 0.6 -0.6 3.1 -2.0 1.4 -1.1 1.8 -0.8 -0.2Brazil 2.4 10.6 0.4 -2.7 -3.3 5.1 -0.4 3.3 -0.1 2.7 -2.4 0.7Mexico 1.2 6.1 4.0 3.4 2.3 2.7 -3.6 1.6 -2.0 1.3 0.4 -0.3Argentina 2.3 9.2 4.6 -1.0 -6.2 1.1 2.0 2.3 0.5 -0.3 0.7 1.2Colombia 1.9 3.9 4.7 -0.1 -4.7 5.0 -8.5 .. -1.0 2.1 -1.2 ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.8 1.6 -9.9 3.3 12.5 -6.9 -16.6 .. -0.2 0.7 .. ..Saudi Arabia 0.1 7.9 6.3 4.0 -6.9 -9.8 -4.8 .. -1.7 -1.1 .. ..Iran 1.1 1.1 -0.6 -16.9 -29.1 -30.8 -17.1 .. 2.8 3.6 .. ..Egypt .. 10.0 -6.8 5.1 -3.5 -20.1 32.0 .. 6.4 -0.3 -0.1 ..Algeria 2.5 -2.8 0.0 -0.5 -1.4 -0.5 -15.7 .. 0.3 0.4 .. ..

South Asia 7.1 9.9 5.7 1.4 -3.8 -1.1 8.8 7.7 -0.6 1.8 0.7 -0.6India 7.3 9.7 4.8 0.7 -3.2 -1.3 7.3 4.1 -1.3 1.6 0.4 -0.5Pakistan 5.8 11.0 6.4 1.8 -16.2 10.9 9.4 22.6 -1.0 2.8 3.9 -1.6Sri Lanka .. 15.1 8.1 -0.6 -9.3 -17.5 -0.2 .. 2.2 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 2.1 4.1 4.0 0.2 0.7 6.8 -13.8 .. -0.5 -2.8 .. ..South Africa 1.1 4.9 2.5 2.1 0.5 0.9 5.3 -8.7 -2.6 2.0 -3.6 -2.5Nigeria 0.4 11.2 3.9 -1.2 14.4 -13.8 -20.1 .. 10.5 -3.5 .. ..

Memo:OECD 0.8 10.4 6.7 1.7 2.4 -2.2 1.0 3.5 -1.9 1.4 1.0 -0.4Developing excl. China 2.7 11.4 8.4 2.3 3.8 -1.5 2.8 3.5 -3.0 2.1 1.2 -0.8Developing oil exporters 2.2 4.9 1.1 2.4 1.7 -0.3 -1.6 0.7 -0.4 0.3 0.4 0.1Dev. non-oil exporters 7.7 12.5 9.7 3.4 4.2 0.0 4.7 4.7 -2.5 1.9 1.2 -0.5

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.

May 22, 2013

Weight Avg 2012 2013 2012 20131995 1999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

Real GDP

High - in come cou n tries 1.8 2.9 1.6 1.2 0.2 1.0 -0.2 1.6 .. .. .. ..Industrial countries 1.8 2.7 1.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 -0.4 1.7 .. .. .. ..

United States 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.0 1.3 3.1 0.4 2.5 .. .. .. ..Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.9 -3.5 1.0 3.5 .. .. .. ..Euro Area 1.5 2.0 1.6 0.0 -0.7 -0.3 -2.5 -0.6 .. .. .. ..United Kingdom 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.0 -1.5 3.8 -1.2 1.2 .. .. .. ..

Real merch an dis e imports High - in come cou n tries 5.2 12.1 8.2 -2.1 -5.3 -5.9 12.0 -9.1 0.8 3.5 -7.0 -3.6

Industrial countries 5.2 11.5 8.5 -2.5 -5.7 -6.7 11.8 -10.0 0.7 3.6 -6.8 -4.4United States 3.0 14.9 3.8 2.9 6.1 -9.5 1.4 -2.5 -4.1 4.2 -1.0 -5.0Japan 5.7 17.9 14.7 4.0 11.3 -10.0 -28.2 -30.5 -3.8 -3.5 -2.1 -2.8Euro Area 5.2 3.7 7.8 -9.7 -12.3 -13.8 5.2 12.4 -0.5 12.5 -7.4 -6.9United Kingdom 2.9 9.3 5.4 1.3 -1.2 -7.8 12.0 .. 2.7 -0.9 -4.9 ..

Other high income 5.2 11.5 8.5 -2.5 -5.7 -6.7 11.8 -10.0 1.9 3.3 -9.3 5.9Hong Kong (China) 3.0 18.7 4.3 1.2 -8.8 11.1 22.5 -9.7 2.5 -3.0 -8.0 8.9Singapore 5.7 14.6 1.5 3.3 -7.4 -11.9 19.0 -13.3 -3.3 3.9 -5.4 -3.8Taiwan (China) 5.2 35.4 3.9 -2.6 5.3 0.2 10.3 21.5 4.2 12.6 -12.1 0.7

I mport Prices High - in come cou n tries 1.9 4.9 8.6 0.7 -5.4 -1.5 -3.5 7.5 -1.7 2.3 2.3 -2.1

Industrial countries 1.8 5.0 8.6 0.5 -6.3 -1.8 -3.7 8.0 -1.9 2.5 2.6 -2.2United States 2.4 6.9 10.9 0.3 -9.4 0.2 4.9 -1.7 -0.2 0.7 -0.2 -1.9Japan 1.6 7.1 7.4 -0.3 -9.4 -5.4 24.6 37.8 2.0 4.5 2.9 -0.1Euro Area 1.8 7.6 8.7 2.5 -3.7 5.1 0.4 -5.3 -0.7 0.0 -0.5 -1.1United Kingdom 1.9 5.8 7.9 -0.4 -7.9 0.2 -0.1 7.7 -0.4 1.0 1.7 ..

Other high income 1.8 5.0 8.6 0.5 -6.3 -1.8 -3.7 8.0 -0.7 1.4 -0.8 -1.1Hong Kong (China) 2.4 5.1 7.4 3.2 0.7 0.4 1.4 -2.5 -0.1 -0.1 -0.6 -0.1Singapore 1.6 10.5 15.8 0.7 -20.0 2.2 5.3 -0.1 0.8 -0.5 2.7 -4.5Taiwan (China) 1.8 7.0 7.7 -1.3 -11.1 -2.9 -6.8 -1.5 -0.7 1.5 -1.1 -1.3

Real effectiv e ex ch an ge rates a

Euro Area 33.5 1.1 -5.8 1.9 -4.7 -6.6 -6.8 -3.2 2.3 1.3 1.8 2.1 -1.3United States 14.4 -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 5.7 5.2 -0.2 1.2 -0.8 0.3 1.3 0.9Japan 7.4 -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.2 2.5 -0.6 -7.5 -17.1 -3.8 -6.6 -4.4 -0.9United Kingdom 5.4 -1.4 3.6 1.4 5.2 6.3 7.6 5.4 0.1 -0.5 -1.3 -3.1 -0.3Canada 3.5 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 -2.4 0.2 2.6 -1.8 0.3 -0.3 -2.2 -0.7Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -3.0 -3.8 -4.2 3.5 4.4 5.6 1.7 3.0 -1.1 -0.6 0.8 0.2Korea, Rep. 2.5 -0.1 8.5 2.6 -0.6 -4.1 -2.2 4.5 5.5 0.9 1.5 0.1 -0.5Singapore 2.3 -0.7 3.4 5.5 4.6 3.8 3.8 7.6 6.1 1.2 -0.7 0.8 0.5Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.5 3.8 0.3 -2.0 -2.5 -2.1 -0.3 -1.0 0.0 0.6 -1.1 0.4Switzerland 1.7 0.1 5.8 9.7 -3.1 -2.2 -9.0 -2.1 -3.0 -0.3 -0.5 0.4 -0.4

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.

May 22, 2013

Average 2012 2013 20131999-08 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr

P olic y RatesUnited States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Ten year bon dUnited States 4.70 4.28 4.07 4.25 3.91 2.94 0.79 0.75 0.70 3.07 3.17 3.16 2.93Japan 1.49 1.49 1.34 1.17 1.12 0.88 2.90 2.22 2.76 0.78 0.74 0.60 0.57Euro Area .. 4.36 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.44 1.66 1.82 2.02 2.40 2.86 3.03 2.86United Kingdom 4.77 4.49 3.66 3.58 3.06 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.04 2.11 1.90 1.71

Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b , c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 483 296 323 329 364 315 272 269 251 271 284 286East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..China 82 126 77 193 218 259 185 156 146 140 150 147 155Indonesia .. 481 218 225 228 264 230 184 197 177 203 212 215Phillippines .. 340 206 200 177 211 165 124 138 123 143 147 148Malaysia 129 230 140 145 152 175 149 109 112 99 115 122 125

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 262 443 229 259 255 297 232 184 177 158 181 192 196Turkey 404 367 221 260 281 328 249 197 195 174 199 211 207Poland 99 222 156 210 192 232 163 122 121 109 126 129 129

Latin America and Caribbean 522 522 345 353 345 371 337 308 303 288 302 317 316Brazil 551 306 202 195 183 206 178 148 162 143 161 180 177Mexico 206 302 187 186 188 207 174 161 167 154 170 177 169Argentina 2920 1198 690 687 989 1063 1018 1041 1127 1055 1114 1212 1223Colombia 370 329 189 168 148 165 135 117 129 112 131 142 132

Middle East and North Africa .. 578 346 369 455 459 478 438 415 402 414 431 460Egypt .. 134 173 371 502 554 485 427 509 434 503 595 577

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. 1186 624 922 1067 1116 1048 828 903 809 889 861 729Sri Lanka .. 1066 369 358 414 460 416 331 352 325 367 357 342

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 172 301 167 195 206 230 178 176 190 170 193 198 180

Gros s in flow s e

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 353 492 455 530 98 144 171 175 58 59 58 66East Asia and Pacific .. 91 144 116 140 41 37 38 51 24 12 15 14Europe and Central Asia .. 72 105 115 159 28 41 66 61 10 30 22 28Latin America and Carribean .. 137 161 154 166 21 47 47 42 18 9 16 20Middle East and North Africa .. 4 13 6 6 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 1South Asia .. 31 53 33 36 5 9 12 13 6 4 3 3Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 15 30 23 4 10 6 6 0 3 3 1

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

May 22, 2013

Weightsb Average 2012 2013 2013

1990 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb M ar Apr

Energy .. .. 144.7 188.2 187.4 183.7 183.2 182.0 187.8 187.8 192.0 183.7 178.3

Coal, Australia .. 10.7 207.8 255.0 202.4 200.6 187.7 182.4 195.1 194.8 199.4 191.1 183.1

Crude o il, average .. 13.1 148.0 194.8 196.7 192.6 192.5 190.9 196.8 196.8 201.6 192.0 185.1

Natural gas , Europe .. 15.1 131.0 166.2 181.3 182.0 175.9 185.5 187.1 187.6 186.0 187.6 203.6

N o n-energy 100.0 .. 173.9 209.9 190.0 189.3 191.0 186.9 185.9 188.5 187.9 181.4 175.7

A griculture 69.1 .. 170.4 209.0 194.0 191.7 200.6 191.1 185.6 188.0 186.3 182.5 177.6

B everages 16.9 .. 182.1 208.2 166.2 162.7 169.7 160.8 151.8 155.0 150.6 149.7 151.4

Cocoa 3.9 9.8 203.7 193.7 155.5 148.3 162.2 159.3 143.6 147.9 142.9 140.0 149.2

Coffee, arabica 8.0 3.3 170.6 236.0 162.3 158.1 158.0 141.0 132.5 136.9 130.1 130.4 130.4

Coffee, robusta 2.8 1.0 155.8 216.0 203.4 207.3 210.0 197.0 204.4 197.2 205.8 210.2 201.1

F o o d 29.4 .. 169.6 210.1 211.6 206.9 225.2 210.7 203.9 205.6 205.1 200.8 193.3

F ats and o ils 10.1 .. 184.5 222.7 230.0 231.1 250.2 221.9 214.0 217.3 218.4 206.5 199.1

Palm o il 2.3 4.6 213.4 266.6 236.8 257.8 235.3 191.7 202.0 199.2 204.5 202.3 199.5

Soybean meal 4.1 10.4 176.5 185.6 244.5 227.5 294.0 273.7 247.7 251.0 249.6 242.6 225.8

Soybeans 2.0 8.0 163.7 196.8 215.3 208.1 244.6 220.0 206.2 215.5 217.0 186.0 180.2

Grains 6.9 .. 171.8 238.5 244.2 227.2 264.0 258.9 248.1 250.1 246.8 247.5 234.8

M aize 1.7 6.3 188.4 295.6 302.4 273.8 333.1 321.4 309.1 307.2 306.8 313.2 283.7

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.9 8.4 170.8 189.7 196.7 203.6 198.5 195.1 196.3 197.1 196.7 195.3 195.1

Wheat, US, HRW 1.9 7.2 146.8 207.6 205.6 176.5 229.4 233.4 211.0 220.2 209.3 203.3 202.3

Other fo o d 12.4 .. 148.2 167.8 157.9 156.8 157.1 152.4 150.4 149.9 150.1 151.1 148.2

Bananas, US 2.3 8.5 144.0 160.6 163.2 162.4 159.2 156.7 154.2 154.1 153.1 155.4 149.7

Sugar, world 7.5 4.2 215.4 263.0 217.9 215.9 215.0 198.8 187.6 190.9 184.8 187.1 180.1

R aw materials 22.8 .. 166.3 206.7 165.3 169.3 156.6 158.9 158.5 162.1 158.6 154.8 152.6

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.9 1.7 187.6 273.5 161.6 163.4 152.5 148.7 162.8 154.9 162.5 171.1 167.2

Rubber, Singapore 4.8 11.8 245.6 324.1 227.0 241.3 199.6 208.1 212.1 222.0 214.1 200.1 192.7

Sawnwood, M alaysia 2.9 3.0 128.6 142.5 132.9 134.0 131.1 132.6 128.2 132.0 127.8 124.7 126.5

F ert ilizers 2.7 .. 187.2 267.0 259.2 270.0 256.9 249.9 240.8 243.2 242.0 237.3 232.1

Triple superphosphate 0.9 5.2 189.5 267.2 229.3 233.5 240.7 224.4 215.9 215.9 215.9 215.9 215.9

M etals and minerals 28.2 .. 179.6 205.5 174.0 175.4 163.9 171.1 180.4 183.3 185.1 172.7 165.5

Aluminum 7.9 2.0 114.5 126.5 106.6 104.4 101.6 105.5 105.4 107.3 108.2 100.6 98.1

Copper 9.3 12.6 204.8 240.0 216.4 214.5 210.1 215.1 215.2 218.7 219.1 207.8 196.6

Gold .. 13.3 275.3 352.8 375.3 362.5 372.4 386.1 366.6 375.8 365.9 358.1 334.5

Nickel 2.2 9.3 147.9 155.4 119.0 116.6 111.1 115.2 117.3 118.5 120.0 113.4 106.3

M emo:C rude Oil (US$ ) .. 13.1 79.0 104.0 105.0 102.8 102.8 101.9 105.1 105.1 107.6 102.5 98.9

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US do llar index,index unless o therwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US do llars fo r low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

May 22, 2013


Ex port v alu esDev elopin g cou n tries 13.5 29.9 22.5 3.5 0.1 -9.6 19.5 12.2 1.2 5.6 -2.6 -3.0

East Asia and Pacific 15.1 30.9 19.6 6.4 18.0 -9.6 20.7 27.6 5.3 6.5 -2.7 -3.1China 19.5 31.6 20.1 8.1 27.9 -8.5 21.9 38.1 8.5 7.1 -2.7 -3.0Indonesia 9.0 35.8 28.9 -6.4 -18.1 -20.9 7.8 9.8 -5.1 7.9 -0.2 -7.5Thailand 10.4 26.9 15.0 3.2 12.9 -9.2 14.5 0.1 -2.0 4.8 -6.9 1.2

Europe and Central Asia 15.2 27.0 29.7 3.7 -14.2 -4.9 16.3 -1.3 -6.1 6.3 -3.6 -2.1Russian Federation 15.8 32.7 31.0 2.9 -20.0 -8.2 23.0 -11.3 -3.3 2.8 -5.0 -0.3Turkey 14.0 11.1 18.7 13.2 18.1 11.4 -11.2 4.8 -19.9 13.9 0.5 -5.3Poland 17.0 14.9 17.8 1.6 -13.6 7.8 30.7 -9.7 5.2 -3.3 -1.5 -4.2

Latin America and Caribbean 8.3 28.2 22.4 1.6 -16.6 0.7 14.8 -11.9 -2.4 3.5 -4.2 -1.9Brazil 11.5 31.6 27.0 -4.7 -27.3 -8.0 18.0 -8.7 -8.2 7.6 -7.7 4.4Mexico 7.0 29.8 17.1 6.3 -3.5 -2.5 10.1 -10.7 1.1 0.5 -0.1 -3.9Argentina 8.0 21.8 23.2 -3.2 -27.4 30.3 2.3 -7.4 0.5 -0.9 -2.3 -1.3

Middle East and North Africa 18.5 26.6 17.1 0.9 -15.1 -19.1 36.1 .. -0.1 -3.7 .. ..Saudi Arabia 18.3 34.6 42.2 10.8 -5.6 -27.9 17.5 .. -7.2 4.8 .. ..Iran 21.8 33.3 29.9 -20.2 -57.2 -73.6 129.9 .. 0.4 -1.1 .. ..Egypt 21.4 14.4 15.0 .. -33.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 14.3 33.4 32.5 -4.0 -9.9 -12.9 17.5 25.8 2.1 4.6 2.8 -4.0India 16.5 37.0 33.2 -3.9 -12.6 -15.0 19.2 29.9 2.6 5.2 2.3 -2.8Pakistan 7.5 21.7 19.2 -2.3 14.2 21.4 -9.5 -17.4 -5.2 -2.4 -0.9 1.9Bangladesh 13.4 14.9 40.1 -3.9 -4.8 -5.2 30.6 26.4 6.3 -0.5 18.9 -22.8

Sub-Saharan Africa 13.1 35.2 23.2 -3.2 -10.4 -30.4 18.2 .. -1.1 12.2 .. ..South Africa 9.0 30.1 19.0 -9.4 -29.8 -17.0 8.2 5.5 -0.5 3.8 3.0 -12.4Nigeria 20.7 49.0 36.5 -0.1 0.8 -33.5 12.0 .. -1.0 15.6 .. ..

Ex port prices b,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries 5.3 9.6 13.9 -2.2 -11.1 4.7 4.1 -2.3 -0.1 0.8 -1.1 -1.0East Asia and Pacific 2.7 5.4 10.2 -2.5 -4.2 3.0 2.7 1.8 -0.5 1.7 -1.5 -0.2

China 1.8 3.9 9.4 -2.3 -2.8 3.7 2.2 5.0 -0.4 2.7 -1.8 -0.1Indonesia 7.5 14.5 17.4 -4.9 -8.8 -1.5 12.2 -13.6 2.2 -3.9 -0.6 -1.9Thailand 2.8 9.2 5.7 0.6 0.7 0.3 1.9 -1.6 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1

Europe and Central Asia 7.5 11.9 20.3 -2.0 -21.3 7.1 6.3 -2.5 2.1 0.6 -1.0 -3.7Russian Federation 10.3 17.7 25.7 -0.8 -26.3 12.8 8.8 -8.8 1.3 -0.2 -0.9 -5.8Turkey 3.3 0.1 11.5 -2.8 -5.6 -2.6 -5.8 19.6 0.8 5.5 -0.2 -1.3Poland 2.1 -8.7 8.8 -11.7 -22.3 -7.3 -2.2 40.4 -1.8 6.7 8.5 -6.8

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 14.6 16.4 -3.6 -12.6 8.3 4.6 -5.7 0.6 -0.2 -0.6 -2.0Brazil 4.1 12.6 15.7 -4.4 -0.9 3.5 -0.1 -4.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -2.1Mexico 4.0 12.2 14.4 -2.6 -18.6 10.5 7.9 -1.5 1.4 0.2 -0.2 -1.5Argentina 5.7 7.9 18.6 2.8 9.3 11.3 -5.7 -4.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.1 0.1

Middle East and North Africa 13.2 17.1 17.3 19.3 8.7 48.8 -5.4 .. 0.2 -2.1 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 19.5 35.7 34.0 6.6 3.5 -41.2 57.4 -6.3 -1.1 -2.0 .. ..Iran 15.9 26.0 29.7 0.7 -40.6 21.5 5.1 6.4 1.3 1.8 .. ..Egypt 6.5 11.9 19.8 -2.2 -16.5 -5.7 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 3.2 9.8 12.5 -3.2 -3.0 0.0 5.5 1.1 0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.9

India 3.3 10.1 13.3 -3.8 -4.6 -0.9 8.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.3 -1.4Pakistan 5.8 18.3 20.0 6.5 7.9 -10.6 -16.3 32.5 3.1 4.9 0.7 0.5Bangladesh 1.6 3.4 8.6 -2.1 1.5 2.9 0.2 4.7 -1.7 1.7 0.9 -0.2

Sub-Saharan Africa 10.0 23.7 24.5 -3.3 -30.2 -2.2 9.3 .. 2.5 1.7 .. ..

South Africa 8.6 26.4 18.3 -7.6 -20.6 -4.4 -8.3 23.9 2.8 1.4 2.6 -0.4Nigeria 17.4 27.9 31.0 0.9 -34.4 -17.7 30.7 15.8 2.5 2.5 .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis./b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

May 22, 2013


I mport v alu esDev elopin g c ou n tries 12.9 30.5 24.8 4.7 -9.7 -3.8 21.4 13.8 -1.9 9.4 -5.2 -1.8

East Asia and Pacific 16.0 37.1 24.5 5.5 -10.2 -5.9 25.4 21.1 -0.5 8.8 -5.7 2.4China 20.3 39.0 25.2 4.7 -14.9 -1.6 23.3 22.8 0.9 6.4 -4.6 4.9Indonesia 15.2 40.4 30.8 8.3 2.7 -32.9 55.7 -9.6 -8.4 6.9 1.8 -12.8Thailand 12.2 37.1 25.0 8.2 5.8 -21.0 50.1 11.4 -3.5 21.6 -18.4 -0.1

Europe and Central Asia 13.4 26.6 29.4 2.8 -8.6 -2.2 5.4 25.7 -5.0 14.3 -2.9 -8.0Russian Federation 14.2 32.7 30.7 5.8 -13.7 -0.7 11.3 20.6 0.1 12.6 -6.6 -5.9Turkey 13.4 31.6 30.1 -1.6 -4.1 -11.9 12.7 27.6 -16.2 16.8 1.4 -9.0Poland 13.2 14.1 19.8 -1.3 -19.3 -0.2 25.1 -21.5 4.7 -4.9 -3.9 -3.5

Latin America and Caribbean 7.5 29.1 21.9 3.7 -6.1 -13.7 31.6 7.6 -3.8 14.6 -7.7 -5.4Brazil 9.6 42.1 24.7 -1.0 -3.8 -36.6 57.7 33.7 -3.3 21.1 -13.9 -0.9Mexico 6.7 28.5 16.5 5.8 -2.7 -10.4 25.8 -3.6 -4.0 12.1 -7.3 -5.8Argentina 8.6 45.9 31.1 -7.5 -11.4 2.8 13.1 17.8 -0.9 7.6 2.6 -6.4

Middle East and North Africa 12.9 14.2 16.0 9.1 29.5 -4.4 -3.7 .. -0.2 -0.3 .. ..Saudi Arabia 11.8 12.6 23.3 18.1 18.4 -7.8 12.9 .. 0.5 9.1 .. ..Iran 13.0 33.4 44.4 -2.8 98.8 5.2 -38.6 .. -2.2 -7.5 .. ..Egypt 12.9 17.8 11.5 .. 0.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 16.9 33.9 31.5 4.1 -37.1 24.1 37.2 -0.9 3.1 -2.4 -3.7 2.1India 19.2 36.4 32.4 5.3 -41.2 31.3 38.5 -2.5 3.0 -3.4 -3.8 1.8Pakistan 13.5 19.4 16.4 0.6 7.2 -0.6 -7.9 10.6 8.4 1.5 -0.2 5.7Bangladesh 10.8 27.6 29.9 0.3 -22.4 8.6 72.5 .. 2.2 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 12.6 13.9 23.2 4.2 2.9 0.2 9.7 .. 5.5 .. .. ..South Africa 10.3 23.8 24.5 1.6 -6.8 -6.9 1.6 -0.2 7.8 -6.5 -11.5 ..Nigeria 20.2 9.8 24.1 -5.7 17.9 -28.4 64.6 .. 4.1 .. .. ..

I mport pric es b , c

Dev elopin g c ou n tries 3.9 7.9 12.9 -1.1 -5.2 2.9 3.6 -2.0 -0.4 0.1 0.3 -2.3East Asia and Pacific 2.9 7.8 13.0 -2.3 -6.0 3.3 3.8 -2.5 0.4 -0.4 0.7 -2.4

China 3.3 9.1 13.3 -3.2 -5.0 4.0 4.5 -1.3 0.5 -0.1 0.5 -2.5Indonesia 5.2 12.2 19.1 -2.5 -15.6 13.2 4.2 -8.1 -1.3 0.0 -0.1 -4.1Thailand 2.2 -0.1 6.0 3.5 0.5 -8.7 -0.4 -13.3 0.3 -2.8 0.0 -1.0

Europe and Central Asia 4.1 10.5 12.1 -2.0 -3.0 -0.6 3.1 5.6 -4.5 4.7 -1.1 -2.1Russian Federation 2.2 5.6 10.3 -2.8 -1.4 1.2 3.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 -2.0 -0.1Turkey 7.6 21.4 13.5 1.0 2.1 -8.1 6.9 22.2 -18.0 17.1 0.8 -6.8Poland 0.8 -6.4 7.5 -3.3 -10.6 -15.6 -31.8 64.2 -8.2 10.4 18.9 -8.9

Latin America and Caribbean 3.3 4.9 10.1 0.3 -0.4 -1.9 2.2 1.7 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.6Brazil 4.3 3.9 14.2 0.9 -4.3 -9.2 7.3 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -0.9Mexico 2.7 4.3 7.3 1.1 -1.0 2.2 2.2 -2.4 0.7 -1.4 0.7 -0.4Argentina 3.1 -0.2 0.5 -1.3 34.4 -17.3 -9.9 15.1 0.1 5.3 -1.3 0.3

Middle East and North Africa 4.5 6.3 9.6 2.5 1.1 6.7 7.1 .. 0.2 -1.3 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 2.4 4.8 10.5 -2.1 0.8 2.3 1.4 1.6 1.3 -0.2 .. ..Iran 3.6 5.8 13.5 -1.5 -2.4 9.6 3.1 -10.1 0.3 -2.8 .. ..Egypt 3.4 6.5 15.6 -3.6 -4.0 -11.0 .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 7.3 14.4 20.9 0.3 -16.2 6.6 6.0 -7.6 -0.5 0.5 -1.1 -3.6

India 6.8 16.0 21.5 -0.1 -19.9 9.0 7.8 -6.4 0.5 0.7 -1.5 -3.7Pakistan 13.5 18.8 25.5 10.2 13.7 -13.5 -14.1 7.4 2.2 1.3 -0.5 -1.6Bangladesh 3.0 6.1 14.1 -3.4 -0.6 14.3 -3.4 -4.9 -0.2 -0.9 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 7.0 8.3 15.1 1.0 -3.6 5.9 3.8 .. 0.9 -1.8 .. ..

South Africa 14.0 7.9 18.9 13.3 11.7 2.8 16.7 -24.1 0.6 -7.8 3.0 -2.1Nigeria 3.0 5.0 12.8 -2.3 -4.9 8.4 0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis./b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis./c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported.

May 22, 2013

US$ bn. % GDP 2012 2013 2012 2013

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar

World -168.7 -0.3 -168.2 -134.8 -241.0 -230.6 -148.1 -215.5 -225.8 -120.3 -67.0 -303.3 -133.8 76.1

High -in come cou n tries a -418.9 -1.0 -290.8 -274.8 -305.2 -228.4 -235.8 -211.0 -198.5 -71.0 -150.4 -165.4 -159.6 112.1Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -393.9 -484.3 -677.3 -637.8 -639.0 -589.5 -610.9 -427.0 -554.8 -517.8 -511.5 -251.6

United States -706.1 -5.0 -549.8 -690.9 -786.4 -789.9 -795.5 -763.6 -776.1 -749.8 -709.1 -797.1 -778.9 -673.3Japan 183.2 3.7 27.9 75.2 -32.6 -86.8 -70.3 -100.3 -110.6 -109.7 -115.2 -104.8 -141.1 -83.4Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 53.7 35.7 28.8 150.9 152.9 172.0 169.6 244.2 173.2 194.5 235.6 302.4United Kingdom -73.6 -2.8 -130.4 -154.0 -161.7 -170.9 -180.1 -158.4 -175.5 .. -176.9 -167.0 -186.4 ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 -393.9 -484.3 -677.3 -637.8 -639.0 -589.5 -610.9 -427.0 -150.4 -165.4 -159.6 112.1Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -29.0 -43.2 -54.3 -61.5 -60.3 -65.3 -67.3 -58.8 -56.0 -50.8 -64.1 -61.4Singapore 26.9 13.9 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 28.8 22.6 25.9 30.6 23.8 34.2 37.9 18.5 47.2 -5.7 25.4 35.8

Dev elopin g cou n tries 293.5 1.8 122.2 139.2 62.5 -4.9 85.6 -6.7 -31.4 -55.0 80.3 -145.8 28.0 -47.3East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 255.1 241.2 190.5 225.8 293.5 260.0 246.2 299.5 340.7 300.9 382.8 215.0

China 426.1 11.5 195.2 183.0 148.0 219.5 286.2 247.6 254.8 335.1 334.4 371.1 398.6 235.7Indonesia 0.6 0.1 19.5 22.1 26.0 -1.6 -3.9 3.7 -13.6 -4.2 -6.7 -5.4 -9.4 2.1Thailand -0.1 0.0 18.9 10.3 -6.5 -18.2 -17.4 -8.6 -25.9 -33.0 -17.3 -60.3 -20.9 -17.8Malaysia 38.9 19.7 33.7 34.4 40.6 30.7 29.5 26.1 34.0 15.4 34.2 7.0 24.5 14.6

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 3.6 6.9 11.8 20.5 13.9 7.1 31.1 -28.4 27.6 -44.8 -51.0 10.6Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 112.5 149.4 196.4 193.2 189.6 179.2 197.2 165.0 187.5 159.9 157.9 177.4Turkey -41.3 -5.7 -38.4 -71.5 -106.0 -84.3 -85.0 -73.4 -84.9 -98.1 -83.2 -101.2 -104.1 -88.9Poland -29.0 -5.6 -91.3 -98.0 -137.9 -103.0 -109.8 -87.3 -78.8 -32.4 -75.7 -51.7 -18.8 -26.7Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 8.0 6.6 10.7 15.8 13.6 17.2 17.3 15.4 13.3 16.3 18.1 11.7

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -22.5 -34.9 -38.3 -59.1 -76.5 -37.1 -74.3 -125.2 -54.9 -171.0 -122.7 -82.0Brazil -28.2 -1.7 25.3 19.9 29.4 19.7 9.1 28.9 14.1 -8.7 4.7 -25.3 -6.5 5.7Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -4.7 -3.0 -1.5 0.2 -0.8 6.9 -5.5 -12.4 7.5 -34.1 -5.3 2.1Argentina 7.6 2.6 17.1 11.5 9.7 12.6 9.5 14.3 12.7 8.2 15.4 9.5 5.7 9.5Colombia -6.7 -3.0 0.0 -0.6 2.8 2.0 -1.2 1.4 3.3 -2.7 3.5 -6.9 0.3 -1.5

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 17.1 52.1 64.3 38.2 28.2 12.0 45.2 .. 42.6 28.9 .. ..Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 80.7 128.9 203.0 215.5 223.4 196.9 206.6 .. 189.6 191.9 .. ..Iran 0.0 0.0 29.5 39.3 41.3 16.3 14.8 -18.8 11.7 .. 17.7 22.8 .. ..Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -21.7 -26.3 -28.4 .. -40.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Algeria 0.04 0.03 4.5 16.1 26.3 5.7 4.0 1.4 1.1 .. 2.6 -4.9 .. ..

South Asia .. .. -117.2 -158.0 -204.9 -242.5 -198.3 -240.7 -274.5 -252.3 -269.2 -271.9 -246.2 -238.6India .. .. -91.6 -123.8 -162.1 -198.4 -156.4 -199.6 -227.7 -204.7 -225.2 -225.4 -199.8 -188.9Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -14.2 -16.6 -18.8 -19.6 -20.3 -19.0 -18.8 -21.0 -16.6 -20.6 -21.5 -21.0Bangladesh .. .. -5.3 -8.6 -9.5 -10.4 -8.8 -9.7 -12.8 .. -14.1 -15.0 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 -13.7 33.0 40.7 14.6 26.1 -6.8 -0.3 .. -3.1 20.6 .. ..South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -2.2 1.2 -2.9 -13.6 -14.4 -16.6 -15.3 -14.1 -16.1 -20.8 -11.1 -10.5Nigeria 20.3 9.3 9.0 30.3 47.3 50.5 54.1 47.9 43.9 .. 42.0 55.4 .. ..

Memo:OECD .. .. -421.7 -543.1 -774.3 -718.4 -719.5 -657.3 -697.4 -536.0 -626.6 -655.5 -621.1 -331.4Developing excl. China .. .. -73.4 -44.1 -85.5 -225.1 -201.6 -255.2 -287.2 -375.8 -255.3 -521.9 -371.1 -234.5Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 204.0 332.7 434.8 367.6 358.2 316.3 347.3 282.6 370.8 235.4 283.3 329.1Developing non-oil exporters .. .. -82.6 -194.3 -373.4 -373.2 -273.0 -323.5 -379.8 -333.6 -291.8 -381.8 -254.3 -364.5

CAB

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

May 22, 2013

Weights Average 2012 2013 20131995 2000-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr

World 100.0 94.0 5.8 0.9 -5.1 -6.4 -6.6 -3.7 -3.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5

High - in c ome cou n tries 78.3 .. 8.5 6.5 -1.2 -3.3 -3.2 1.1 -3.4 -1.9 -2.8 -1.6 -2.1Industrial countries 70.6 .. 8.6 6.5 -1.2 -3.3 -3.3 1.0 -3.5 -1.9 -2.8 -1.6 -2.1

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Japan 7.4 112.0 6.7 10.1 -0.1 1.9 -1.1 -4.9 -14.0 -5.8 -4.4 -1.7 -3.1Euro Area 29.5 .. -4.7 5.0 -7.6 .. .. .. .. 1.3 0.4 -3.0 0.6United Kingdom 5.6 0.6 -0.9 3.8 -1.1 -3.0 -1.8 2.2 -1.3 -1.1 -3.1 -2.5 1.5

Other high income 7.7 101.4 3.8 5.6 -0.5 -2.2 -1.8 3.0 0.6 -0.1 -1.4 -0.4 -0.2Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0Singapore 2.3 1.6 6.7 8.4 0.6 -1.9 -1.7 5.3 2.1 -0.6 -0.8 -0.7 0.7Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -2.7 -2.3 3.8 0.7 -0.1 -1.8 -0.4 -0.3

Dev elopin g cou n tries 21.7 115.5 5.1 -0.5 -6.0 -7.1 -7.5 -4.8 -3.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 8.2 0.3 -4.8 -5.4 -6.8 -4.5 -4.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1

China 2.7 7.9 0.9 4.7 2.5 2.7 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.5Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 14.3 3.6 -6.4 -7.4 -9.5 -6.7 -6.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1Thailand 1.3 38.9 8.2 4.1 -1.9 -3.3 -3.9 1.1 4.0 1.9 0.8 1.0 1.5Malaysia 1.4 3.7 9.4 5.3 -0.9 -3.1 -3.2 3.1 -0.7 0.5 -1.8 -0.4 1.9

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 -5.2 -29.4 -29.8 -41.0 -28.5 -2.3 -5.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -9.9 -8.7 0.5 -0.9 1.5 0.1 -2.0 -1.6Turkey .. 1.3 3.2 -10.3 -6.7 -13.3 -3.7 2.5 0.6 0.9 -0.3 -1.7 0.7Poland 0.5 3.5 3.4 1.8 -8.9 -17.1 -11.0 3.6 2.5 0.3 -0.2 -2.7 1.0Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 -0.2 8.0 -9.6 -14.2 -13.8 -3.2 -1.2 -0.1 0.7 -3.7 -0.1

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 4.7 1.7 0.4 -0.8 -0.8 2.0 0.6 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -18.7 -19.4 -12.6 -11.4 2.3 2.9 -0.6 -0.9Mexico 1.7 10.8 6.9 1.6 -5.5 -13.4 -6.5 5.4 2.7 1.2 -0.1 1.8 2.4Argentina 0.4 2.7 -4.7 -5.2 -9.3 -8.2 -9.7 -11.4 -13.4 -1.3 -1.2 -1.5 -1.3Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 2.8 2.8 0.6 -0.1 6.4 0.4 1.2 -1.3 -1.0 -0.9

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 0.4 0.0 -9.3 -9.9 -9.9 -9.9 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Iran 0.4 .. 0.4 0.0 -9.6 -10.2 -10.2 -10.2 -2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Egypt 0.3 5.2 -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -9.8 -6.0 -2.4 -0.8 -1.5Algeria 0.3 73.4 -1.8 1.1 -5.9 -4.9 -9.4 -6.1 -4.6 0.2 0.2 -1.3 0.3

South Asia 1.2 107.4 3.1 -2.1 -11.5 -14.8 -14.6 -6.9 -6.1 0.6 0.5 -0.7 0.1India 0.8 45.5 5.9 -2.0 -12.6 -17.3 -17.0 -6.2 -7.2 0.7 0.8 -1.1 0.1Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -4.1 -1.3 -7.5 -7.4 -8.2 -8.8 -7.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 -0.2Bangladesh 0.1 62.3 -0.8 -6.0 -9.5 -10.4 -8.7 -4.9 4.7 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 1.7 2.2 -13.4 -15.5 -16.9 -13.5 -6.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.6

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 -7.7 -8.8 -2.8 0.0 0.3 -0.4 0.5South Africa 0.6 7.7 15.1 0.8 -11.6 -16.4 -13.5 -6.8 -13.4 -2.1 -1.0 -3.4 1.0Nigeria 0.3 124.9 -0.9 -3.1 -1.8 -2.5 -3.1 1.9 1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.1

Memo:OECD 73.7 .. 8.6 6.4 -1.2 -3.4 -3.2 1.3 -3.2 -1.8 -2.7 -1.6 -2.0Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 5.1 -0.5 -6.1 -7.2 -7.5 -4.8 -3.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 5.4 0.2 -5.3 -6.0 -6.8 -5.2 -3.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 0.6 -10.1 -14.7 -21.1 -15.1 -0.7 -1.6 0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.1

Table A .8 Ex c h an ge Rates (USD/L CU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

May 22, 2013

Average 2012 2013 20131999-09 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr

World 2.6 2.7 4.0 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.1 3.3 3.3 2.6 1.7

High - in come cou n tries 1.9 1.6 2.7 2.0 2.5 2.6 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.1Industrial countries 1.9 1.5 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3

United States 2.5 1.6 3.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.4 1.0Japan -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 ..Euro Area 2.0 1.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2United Kindgom 1.8 3.3 4.5 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 ..

Other high income 1.9 1.5 2.6 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3Hong Kong (China) -0.5 2.3 5.3 4.1 4.2 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.0 4.3 3.6 ..Singapore 1.4 2.8 5.2 4.6 5.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.5 4.9 3.5 ..Taiwan (China) 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.9 1.6 3.0 1.9 1.8 1.1 2.9 1.3 1.0

Dev elopin g cou n tries 4.9 5.7 7.2 6.0 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.8 5.6East Asia and Pacific 2.0 3.5 5.5 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.8 2.5 3.2 2.6 2.6

China 1.6 3.3 5.4 2.6 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.0 3.2 2.1 2.4Indonesia 9.5 5.1 5.4 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 5.2 4.6 5.3 5.8 5.6Thailand 2.3 3.3 3.8 3.0 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.5Malaysia 2.2 1.6 3.2 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.6 ..

Europe and Central Asia 15.6 7.4 8.3 7.2 1.9 3.2 4.2 3.5 4.2 3.5 3.1 3.4Russian Federation 20.5 6.9 8.4 5.1 3.9 6.0 6.5 7.1 7.1 7.3 7.0 7.2Turkey 10.4 8.6 6.5 8.9 9.5 9.1 6.7 7.2 7.3 7.0 7.3 6.1Poland 3.9 2.7 4.2 3.7 4.0 3.9 3.0 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.0Czech Republic 2.7 1.4 1.9 3.3 3.4 3.3 2.8 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.8

Latin America and Caribbean 6.5 6.1 6.8 6.4 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.7Brazil 6.7 5.0 6.6 5.4 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.5Mexico 6.2 4.2 3.4 4.1 3.9 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.2 3.5 4.2 4.7Argentina 7.7 10.5 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9 10.6 10.8 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.5Colombia 6.7 2.3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.1 2.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0

Middle East and North Africa 7.7 7.6 12.5 17.1 7.7 6.6 5.7 6.1 6.3 5.8 6.6 8.0Saudi Arabia 1.8 5.3 5.0 4.5 5.1 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.2 .. .. ..Iran 15.7 10.2 20.6 27.3 23.0 28.4 35.6 .. .. .. .. ..Algeria 3.2 3.9 4.5 8.9 9.5 8.0 9.1 6.0 7.8 5.4 .. ..

South Asia .. 11.7 10.0 9.5 9.2 9.5 9.2 9.0 9.7 9.8 7.6 7.1India .. 12.2 9.6 9.7 10.2 9.8 10.1 10.7 10.8 10.9 10.4 9.4Pakistan 20.3 12.9 11.9 9.7 11.6 9.2 7.5 7.3 8.0 7.4 6.6 5.8Bangladesh 5.9 8.1 10.7 8.7 9.2 7.8 7.5 7.6 7.3 7.8 7.7 7.9Sri Lanka 10.5 6.2 6.7 7.5 7.4 9.5 9.2 9.0 9.8 9.8 7.5 6.4

Sub-Saharan Africa 7.9 7.2 8.5 8.3 6.5 6.2 5.6 4.1 5.0 4.9 5.4 ..South Africa 6.0 4.3 5.0 5.7 5.8 5.1 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.8 5.9 ..Nigeria 11.7 13.7 10.8 12.2 12.8 12.0 12.0 8.3 8.9 9.5 .. ..

Memo:OECD 2.1 1.7 2.7 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3Developing excl. China 8.2 7.1 8.2 7.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.7Developing oil exporters 9.7 7.3 8.8 8.6 5.1 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.6 7.0 6.3 5.6Developing non-oil exporters 3.3 5.1 6.5 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.2 4.6

Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.

May 22, 2013

Weights 2012 2013 20131995 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr

World 100.0High - in come c ou n tries b 82.8 -1.45 -1.45 -1.45 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 80.6 -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 .. .. .. ..United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 0.50 0.50 0.50 4.50 5.50 6.50 7.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 3.13 3.13 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 1.93 1.93 1.93 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39

Dev elopin g cou n tries 17.2East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.50 6.02 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.7 9.18 9.18 9.18 4.39 4.86 4.92 4.93 4.96 4.92 4.90 4.90Thailand (14day Bilateral Repo Rate) 0.6 1.47 2.95 2.96 3.00 3.00 2.79 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 4.48 5.48 6.48 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.00 8.05 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 17.05 17.05 17.05 10.40 6.87 5.61 5.47 5.51 5.35 5.57 5.79Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 5.88 5.88 5.88 4.58 4.73 4.51 3.75 4.08 3.80 3.37 3.19Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.75 0.50 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 12.45 12.45 12.45 8.98 7.88 7.28 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.35Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.40 4.33 4.34 4.17 4.30 4.20 4.01 3.88Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 11.43 11.43 11.43 11.55 12.08 13.39 13.29 13.36 13.00 13.52 13.76Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 9.68 9.68 9.68 5.45 5.40 5.30 4.90 5.17 4.87 4.64 4.31

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.4 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.91 0.95 0.98 0.98 1.00 0.98 0.95 ..Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 10.17 10.17 10.17 9.50 9.50 9.50 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25 10.25Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 7.90 7.90 7.90 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 10.63 10.63 10.63 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 10.50 10.50 10.50 7.74 7.75 7.69 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 11.61 11.61 11.61 5.50 5.11 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 9.85 9.85 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available).

May 22, 2013

Average 2012 2013 20131999-08 2010 2011 2012 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr

World 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United States 89 99 111 121 118 122 122 130 120 124 128 130Japan 84 68 68 63 58 58 58 64 62 64 67 70Euro Area 99 299 332 280 241 245 252 264 284 281 269 254United Kindgom 88 78 84 84 73 77 81 86 84 84 84 85

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. 156 160 151 135 138 151 162 175 176 174 174Singapore 80 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Taiwan (China) 72 95 104 95 77 76 79 83 85 85 85 84

Dev elopin g cou n tries a, b 156 233 245 229 189 189 199 208 213 211 207 202East Asia and Pacificc 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 118 218 211 196 190 184 202 216 197 193 185 178Indonesia 207 582 683 683 467 471 490 521 448 469 491 498Thailand 188 306 382 426 305 311 328 369 323 337 342 343Malaysia 116 193 223 230 199 203 207 206 222 214 217 228

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 525 356 406 349 332 334 339 358 368 366 350 329Turkey 87 147 131 128 96 108 122 136 130 123 128 131Poland 168 175 187 150 119 124 137 142 158 152 146 142Czech Republic 354 601 622 518 440 442 443 408 487 474 447 423

Latin America and Caribbean 203 394 397 360 315 312 317 334 352 347 343 336Brazil 199 419 405 342 309 298 297 311 320 315 313 303Mexico 193 315 349 369 313 337 357 383 412 407 404 412Argentina 104 161 182 90 68 58 59 74 80 82 78 76

Middle East and North Africa .. 220 237 217 184 189 194 201 205 201 194 187Egypt 213 426 309 316 224 247 254 236 236 229 211 204

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 198 348 326 280 208 212 233 240 274 271 262 259Pakistan 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh .. 670 524 378 485 432 415 410 421 435 402 372Sri Lanka 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 216 293 325 320 271 277 278 282 273 269 258 250

Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&Pc/ East Asia Pacific including South AsiaSource: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Exchange Composite Index; All Others are IFC/S&P Indices

developing trends: may 2013 - world bankpubdocs.worldbank.org/en/877311469045324072/global... ·...

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