development and assessment of traffic-related …oa.upm.es/37032/1/inve_mem_2014_198188.pdf ·...
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EOI - MIGMA 08-09. Introducción a la simulación de la calidad del aire
DEVELOPMENT AND ASSESSMENT OF TRAFFIC-RELATED EMISSION ABATEMENT MEASURES FOR THE MADRID CITY
(SPAIN) THROUGH THE WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ MODELLING SYSTEM
28 March 2014
Rafael Borge, Julio Lumbreras, David de la Paz, Javier Pérez, Mª Encarnación Rodríguez
Laboratory of Environmental Modelling. Technical University of Madrid (UPM).
24-28 March 2014, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Special session on "Air pollution in cities"
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EOI - MIGMA 08-09. Introducción a la simulación de la calidad del aire
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
3. Scenarios / measures
4. Results
5. Conclusions
OUTLINE
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 3
1. Introduction
• As environmental standards become more stringent (e.g. European Directive2008/50/EC), more reliable modelling tools are needed to simulate measuresand plans that may effectively tackle air quality exceedances, common inlarge cities across Europe, particularly for NO2.
• This is the case ofMadrid (Spain), 3.4million inhabitants in thecity, more than 5 millionpeople in themetropolitan area
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 4
• Madrid enacted a local AQP in 2012 to meet the NO2 standards by the end of2014
• It included a package of 70 measures, most of them aimed at the roadtransport sector
The Madrid Air Quality Plan (AQP)
Figures from Borge et al., 2014 (STOTEN)
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 5
0
5000
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35000
40000
45000
50000
TOTAL RCI Industria Tráfico rodado
Emis
ione
s N
OX (t
/año
)2007
2014
• A global decrease of 31% in NOX
emissions is expected (40% in the roadtransport sector)
NO2 annual mean (Annual LV)
NO2 annual 1h 99.8th percentile (1-h LV)
• Annual NO2 levels reduced by34% as an average; approximately15 μg/m3 in the city center
• Important impact in themetropolitan area (-7 μg/m3 as anaverage in the modeling domain)
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain)
0
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Annual mean NO2 concentration (µg/m3)
19th
hig
hest
hou
rly N
O2 c
once
ntra
tion
(µ
g/m
3 )
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Annual mean NO2 concentration (µg/m3)
19th
hig
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rly N
O2 c
once
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(µ
g/m
3 )
6
Observed NO2 values (corresponding to the annual and hourly NO2 limit values defined in the European AQ Directive) in the Madrid air quality monitoring network for the years 2010-2013
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Annual mean NO2 concentration (µg/m 3)
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(µ
g/m
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Annual mean NO2 concentration (µg/m3)
19th
hig
hest
hou
rly N
O2 c
once
ntra
tion
(µ
g/m
3 )
Traffic stations Urban background stations Suburban background stations
2010
2012
2011
2013
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 7
• According to the simulations performed, compliance may be expected by the endof 2014
• Although:- Additional microscale measures (and modelling) for particular points are
needed- Additional, temporal measures to be applied during high-pollution
episodes must be considered and assessed
• The effect of road trafficaccess restriction undera 10-day high pollutionepisode to the citycentre are modelled anddiscussed in this work
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 8
2. Methodology
Air quality modelling system
Meteorological model
Emission model
Chemcal-Transport model
WRF
SMOKE
CMAQ
Terrain & land use
data
Met data (gridded, obs.)
Emission Inventories
Ancillary information:-Temporal allocation-Spatial allocation-Chemical speciation
Large Point Source
parameters
Initial conditions
Boundary conditions
Photolysis rates
ConcentrationDepositionVisibility
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 9
• Four nested domains canconsistently describe air pollutionprocesses from continental tourban scale
• Suitable to estimatecontributions from differentgeographic areas (international,national, regional and local)
A
D
D1
D2
D3
D4
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain)
• The system is able to depict urban background levels (e.g. NO2)
NO2 uncertainty (MRDE)
Hourly VL = 23,7 %
Annual VL = 22,4 %
Relative Directive Error (RDE) Directive 2008/50/EC
*
*
0
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0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
Concentración observada NO2 (ug/m 3)
Con
cent
raci
ón s
imul
ada
NO
2 (ug
/m3 )
C5
M = 29,5 μg/m3
O = 28,3 μg/m3
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
Concentración observada NO2 (ug/m 3)
Con
cent
raci
ón s
imul
ada
NO
2 (ug
/m3 )
C5
M = 29,5 μg/m3M = 29,5 μg/m3
O = 28,3 μg/m3O = 28,3 μg/m3
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
Concentración observada NO2 (ug/m 3)
Con
cent
raci
ón s
imul
ada
NO
2 (ug
/m3 )
A2
M = 34,8 μg/m3
O = 37,4 μg/m3
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
Concentración observada NO2 (ug/m 3)
Con
cent
raci
ón s
imul
ada
NO
2 (ug
/m3 )
A2
M = 34,8 μg/m3M = 34,8 μg/m3
O = 37,4 μg/m3O = 37,4 μg/m3
• Acceptableperformance
• (MB = -2.2 μg/m3;r = 0.63; MFB = -14.1%...)
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain)
v. 4.10
Emission modelling
- 1h intensity and speed from the traffic model
- Zone-specific fleet composition and age from field campaigns
• Integration with the regional traffic model (TDM) for emission computation atlink level (15 000 aproximately)
Borge et al., 2012 (AE)
Emission modelling
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 12
• A 10-day period with high stability and low ventilation (winter) was selected,typical of high-pollution episodes (2007 meteorology)
• Restriction measures to be applied inside M30 (ring road)• Only for working days
Calle 30
50,6 km2
Temporal and spatial scope of traffic restrictions
• Reference scenario =2014 (expected situationfrom the Madrid AQP)
• Same initial and boundaryconditions and emissionsfor non-traffic sources(corresponding period of2014) for all scenarios
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain)
A - 20 % reduction of passenger carsB - 20 % reduction of passenger cars + restrictions for taxisC - 50 % reduction of passenger carsD - 50 % reduction of passenger cars + restrictions for taxis
13
3. Scenarios
• In a first stage 4 scenarios were considered:
-
+Restriction
level
• None of these restrictions apply to residents, emergency and public servicevehicles, duty vehicles, etc.
• An additional, more restrictive scenario was considered in a second stage:
E - 50 % reduction of passenger cars (including residents) + restrictions for taxis
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 14
4. ResultsScenarios A-D
• Emission summary
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 15
• These measures mayachieve improvements of 2-3 µg/m3 for the 20%reduction and up 6 µg/m3
for the 50% reductionscenario
• Roughly 7% decrease in theinnermost area for the mostrestrictive scenario
Decrease of average NO2 (µg/m3) in the 10-day period
• Air quality summary
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 16
• Concentration peaks may bereduced in the central areaof Madrid by 5-7 % (up to 12ug/m3) under the mostrestrictive scenario
• The effect of taxi restrictionsis broadly 1 ug/m3
Decrease of maximum 1-h NO2(µg/m3) in the 10-day period
• Air quality summary
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 17
• Analysis of concentration variations in time
A B C D
Mean concentration
by hour
Maximum concentration
by hour
Daily means
Daily 1-h maximum
concentration
Weekend
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 18
• Global emission reduction of nearly 8% in themodelling domain
• Strong emission reduction inside M-30 (despitemobility reduction an increase of 10 km/h inaverage speed is expected)
• Slight increase of NOX emissions in the ring road(3,3%) due to traffic redistribution
• Very small increase of distance travelled outsideM-30 and decrease of average speed (< 1 km/h)
Scenario E • Emission summary
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 19
• Air quality summary
• Average decrease of 12% inaverage NO2 concentrationwithin M-30
• Maximum reductions up to17 µg/m3 (Castellana area)
NO2 ( µg/m3 )
Decrease of average NO2 (µg/m3) in the 10-day period
E
Base E
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 20
• Air quality summary
• Peak concentration values vary ina similar percentage
• Reductions between 10 and 25µg/m3 inside M-30
• Small increments in particularspots outside M-30
E
Decrease of maximum 1-h NO2(µg/m3) in the 10-day period
Base E
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 21
• The effect decreasesstrongly with distance andbecomes highly dependenton wind patterns
• NO2 reductions growslowly in time but the effectceases to exist soon afterthe restriction is removed
1
2
3
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain) 22
5. Conclusions• Road traffic is the main responsible of air quality issues in Madrid
• Improving air quality with temporal measures under unfavourablemeteorological conditions is very hard
• Temporal traffic restrictions may help to avoid very high pollution levels, andtherefore hourly NO2 limit value exceedances, but only if strong measuresare applied in relatively large areas of the city
• Significant improvements in the city centre (reductions of 10-15 µg/m3 and15-25 µg/m3 for average and maximum NO2 concentration respectively) canbe achieved by applying a 50% restriction to passenger cars inside M-30,including residents in that area
• A minimum of 2-3 days of application is needed
• The effect of the restriction measures diminishes rapidly with distance, sothe reduction in the city outskirts may be negligible depending onmeteorological conditions
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9th International Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application. Special session on Air pollution in cities
Development and assessment of traffic-related emission abatement measures for the Madrid city (Spain)
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Laboratory of Environmental Modelling. Technical University of Madrid (UPM)
• The Madrid City Councilprovided the traffic modeloutputs and funded this study.