development of the italian pellet market 2- 05 - wpac 2014 - analize pa… · pellet boilers 66%...

© Annalisa Paniz, AIEL

Annalisa Paniz

Development of the Italian pellet marketVancouver. November 19, 2014


• Who is AIEL?

• What is the Pellet market situation?

• What is the heating market in Italy?

• Is the ENplus certification supported by the

Italian companies?

• What are the current Pellet support schemes?

Contents


WHO IS AIEL?The main Italian association of Wood Energy Chain


Plantdesigners

AIEL: Structure and organisation

Wood Energy Chain Association (300 members)

Representing the companies’ interests ‘from Forestry to chimney’


• 150 companies (Plants Designers, Installers, Farms, Mechanic industries, banks, ESCo, etc)

• 100 companies involved into the Working Groups: Biomass Producers, Pellets Producers and Traders, Small scale heating appliances' producers, Biomass Boilers producers, mini CHP producers, Biogas plants producers, etc)

• 50 public and private bodies (Research Institutes, Universities, Municipalities, Provinces (Landers), Energy agencies, Embassies, Foundations, etc)

Who are our 300 members?


THE ITALIAN PELLET MARKET FROM A GLOBAL POINT OF VIEW

The biggest European Market for domestic use


Development of global pellet production


Pellets market = global market

Source: EPC ‐ IEA Bioenergy Task 40


Development of the European pellet consumption

In 2013 for the first time in Europe the consumption for heating purposes has overtaken the consumption for the electricity power generation.

10 Million tons of pellets were consumed for heating purposes and 9 Million tons for power generation.

Rakos, ARGUS Conference


European market = heating maket

• 10 Million ton (2013)• + 16,6% from 2012• 4 times bigger in 10 years

• 6 countries with 90% market share

• Italy 2,5 Mt (3,2 Mt)• Germany 1,9 Mt• Sweden 1,4 Mt• Austria 0,9 Mt• France 0,75 Mt• Denmark 0,6 Mt

Source: Seth Walker


Global pellet market. Forecast

The global demand of wood pellets is expected to growfrom the current 23 million to 50 million tons in 2024

The market growth is driven by the residential usemainly in the European markets

Japan and Korea are entering into the global market.This may have a significant impact on the internationalflows

RISI, Seth Walker


3.110.630 t

4.731.183 t

2.092.698 t

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

5

2012 2013 2014*

Milion

i t

CANADA

USA

Export from North America into Europe

Source: Eurostat. Elab. Paniz AIEL

+52% from 2012 to 2013Italy: just 2‐5% of the total export from

USA10% (2013) and 19% (2014) of the total

export from Canada

*till June 2014


Export form USA and Canada• 2013 Export 5.2 Mt

• USA: 2.7 Mt• Canada: 2.5 Mt

• Destinations• Europe: 98% of the total exports

• Italy just 7%• Other destination countries are Korea and Japan

• Korea 100 000 t (2013) representing 9% of the export from Canada (2014)

UNITED KINGDOM

64%

NETHERLANDS16%

BELGIUM9%

ITALY7%

DENMARK0%

SWEDEN3%

GERMANY 1%

ALTRI0%

Fonte: Eurostat. Elab. Paniz AIEL

98% of the total export goes into Europe


608.591 t

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Milion

i t

2012 2013 2014 *till June 2014EUROSTAT data

Export form USA and Canada


THE ITALIAN PELLET MARKET FIGURES

The biggest European Market for domestic use


Italy: the biggest European pellet market

Italy: the biggest European pellet market

TOTAL CONSUMPTION 20133,2 MILLIONS TON

TOTAL CONSUMPTION 20133,2 MILLIONS TON

The domestic consumption

represents 96%

The domestic consumption

represents 96%

How big is the Italian consumption?


How many plants are installed?

Stoves and inserts: 1,9 Million

(21% second house)≅15,2 GW

Stoves and inserts: 1,9 Million

(21% second house)≅15,2 GW

Boilers ≅200.000 (up to 35 kW)≅5 GW

Boilers ≅200.000 (up to 35 kW)≅5 GW

Big plants: At least 20(> 1MW)

Big plants: At least 20(> 1MW)

Boilers ≅2.500 (35 kW – 1 MW)≅1‐2 GW

Boilers ≅2.500 (35 kW – 1 MW)≅1‐2 GW


Annual growth200‐300.000 tonsAnnual growth200‐300.000 tons

Over 3,5 Milliontons in 2015

Over 3,5 Milliontons in 2015

25%


• Around 15% of the total biomass domestic installations (around 10,6 millions of heating systems) are fed with pellets

• Bagged pellet represents slightly less the total consumption. A significant high number of boilers are still fed with bagged pellets

• Bulk pellet transported with silo trucks is no more than 20.000 t

• The expected increase of this market sector is higher than the average growth of pellet market thanks to the increase of pellet boilers trade

•The market is fragmented: it is possible to buy pellets in every single shop, from mini market to Great dealers, from hardware store to hobby centres.

•According to the heating market growth expectations and the National Renewable Energy Action Plan statement, the use of pellets will reach 3,5 Mt in 2015 and 5 Mt in 2020

Some Market Considerations

© Annalisa Paniz, AIELSource: AIEL – GAD 2012. Results of over 170 companies

Pellet stoves: leader of the Italian market

Picture source: Palazzetti


Source: Palazzetti SpA


Pellet stoves: leader of the market

2013: strong increase in sales from big retailers

Installations

Selling of Pellet stoves

Installatio

ns

Selling of Pellet stoves

250‐270 000


1.9433.294

5.639

8.195

11.980

14.344

401

431

547

688

973

1044

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

<35 <35 <35 <35 <35 <35

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 PREV. 2014

VENDITE CALDAIE A PELLET (focus <35kW)

IMPIANTO COMPATTO DEPOSITO A CARICO PNEUMATICO

Residential pellet boilers <35 kW: an important market

2009‐2014 Trend (∆) +556%Pneumatic feeding system +160%

No pneumatic Pneumatic feeding system

2014: forecast overestimated


372

13

433

26

494

30

382

27

443

46

522

61

49

14

77

14

105

11

151

22

210

18

255

28

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

36‐100 101‐500 36‐100 101‐500 36‐100 101‐500 36‐100 101‐500 36‐100 101‐500 36‐100 101‐500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 PREV. 2014

VENDITE CALDAIE A PELLET (focus >35kW)

DEPOSITO A CARICO PNEUMATICO IMPIANTO COMPATTO

Pellet boilers from 35 to 500 kW

No pneumaticPneumatic feeding system


From 2009 to 2014 over 80.000 biomass boilers were sold

Pellet boilers

66% (53.300) are pellet boilers

9% of pellet boilers are with pneumatic feeding system

Pellet is the market leader for boilers up to 100 kW

2014: over 21.000 biomass boilers will be sold. 76% are pellet boilers


Data source: REF‐E . Elab. AIEL (2014)

What kind of boilers were substituted with biomass boilers in 2012?


Stock of Single Heating systems installed in 2011Data source: Istat, elab REF‐E 2013

560.000 heating oil boilers13.900.000 natural gas boilers1.562.000 LPG boilers


ITALY: AN IMPORT ORIENTED COUNTRY


kt

Production and consumption: an opposite trend

Elab. AIEL su dati GAD, GCMB; GPDPENplus

Production Eurostat

2012 750.000 t

Production Eurostat

2012 750.000 t

IMPO

RT


70%

85%

51%53%

68%

52%

39%

31%

26%

14%9%

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Consum

o (t)

% produ

zione

nazionale

Production and consumption: an opposite trend


Lombardia45%

Veneto18%

Friuli Venzia Giulia16%

Trentino Alto Adige8%

Emilia Romagna3%

Toscana2%

Lazio2%

Basilicata2%

Valle d'Aosta2%

Altre2%

Where are the main production sites?

Production: 300 ‐ 350.000 t Certified production: 150‐200.000 t

Forecast 2014


ITALY. THE BIGGEST IMPORTER FORRESIDENTIAL USE


Import from 2012 to 2014


0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000Jan. 201

2

Feb. 201

2

Mar. 201

2

Apr. 20

12

May. 201

2

Jun. 201

2

Jul. 20

12

Aug. 201

2

Sep. 201

2

Oct. 201

2

Nov. 201

2

Dec. 201

2

Jan. 201

3

Feb. 201

3

Mar. 201

3

Apr. 20

13

May. 201

3

Jun. 201

3

Jul. 20

13

Aug. 201

3

Sep. 201

3

Oct. 201

3

Nov. 201

3

Dec. 201

3

Jan. 201

4

Feb. 201

4

Mar. 201

4

Apr. 20

14

May. 201

4

EURO 28 NORD AMERICA RUSSIA + UKR+ SERBIA

20121.270.175

20131.757.177

2014724.956

SeasonalityMarch: drop, April‐July: growth

October: peak

© Annalisa Paniz, AIELFonte: Eurostat. Elab. Paniz AIEL

The commercial partners are changing

49%

2%11%

29%

7% 2%

CENTRO EU

NORD EU

SUD EU

BALTICS

EST EU

NORD AMERICA

RUSSIA E UKRAIN

ALTRI

Totale: 1.270.175 t

2012

36%

1%2%

15%

31%

11%4%

CENTRO EU

NORD EU

SUD EU

BALTICS

EST EU

NORD AMERICA

RUSSIA E UKRAINA

ALTRI

20131,27 Mt

1,76 Mt


0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000Jan. 201

2

Feb. 201

2

Mar. 201

2

Apr. 20

12

May. 201

2

Jun. 201

2

Jul. 20

12

Aug. 201

2

Sep. 201

2

Oct. 201

2

Nov. 201

2

Dec. 201

2

Jan. 201

3

Feb. 201

3

Mar. 201

3

Apr. 20

13

May. 201

3

Jun. 201

3

Jul. 20

13

Aug. 201

3

Sep. 201

3

Oct. 201

3

Nov. 201

3

Dec. 201

3

Jan. 201

4

Feb. 201

4

Mar. 201

4

Apr. 20

14

May. 201

4

CROATIA ROMANIA AUSTRIA

Fonte: Eurostat. Elab. Paniz AIEL

Import from the main EU countries


0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

Jan. 201

2

Feb. 201

2

Mar. 201

2

Apr. 20

12

May. 201

2

Jun. 201

2

Jul. 20

12

Aug. 201

2

Sep. 201

2

Oct. 201

2

Nov. 201

2

Dec. 201

2

Jan. 201

3

Feb. 201

3

Mar. 201

3

Apr. 20

13

May. 201

3

Jun. 201

3

Jul. 20

13

Aug. 201

3

Sep. 201

3

Oct. 201

3

Nov. 201

3

Dec. 201

3

Jan. 201

4

Feb. 201

4

Mar. 201

4

Apr. 20

14

May. 201

4

CANADA RUSSIA SERBIA USA UKRAINA


Import from the main extra EU countries


0 100.000 200.000 300.000 400.000 500.000 600.000 700.000

CENTRO EU

EST EU

BALTICS

NORD AMERICA

RUSSIA E UKRAINA

SUD EU

NORD EU

ALTRI

tonnellate

2013

2012

Import comparison 2012‐2013


0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000AUSTRIA

CANADA

ROMANIA

LITH

UANIA

CROATIA

GERMANY

FRANCE

SLOVENIA

SERB

IA

LATVIA

UKR

AINA

ESTO

NIA

CZECH REP

BULG

ARIA

POLA

ND

SLOVA

KIA

PORTUGAL

SPAIN

RUSSIA

USA

HUNGARY

SWED

EN

DEN

MARK

ALTRI

2012

2013

Import comparison 2012‐2013


Imports

1,7 Mt

Production

0,3 Mt

Consumption

3 Mt??????

1 Mt

Demand and Supply. The numbers don’t match

The Eurostat data are

underestimated

BUT

There is a significant

amount of black / illegal pellets


HOW IS THE SITUATION OF ENPLUS IN ITALY?


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2011 2012 2013 2014*

Milion

i di t

Prodotto

Commercializzato

6,5 Mt of produced pellet65% of pellet used in the EU residential sector is ENplus

Germania

Germania

ENplus at International level

Dati: EPC, 2014

173 producers251 traders

ProducedTraded


How will develop ENplus in Italy?

In less than 3 years the certification is becoming even more a point of reference

1 27

12

5

11

3

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2011 2012 2013 2014

Autobotti

Distributori

Produttori

Pellet prodtto 150.000 t

Pellet distribuito 500.000 t

Pellet in autobotte 8.000 t

After Germany and Austria, Italy was the third EU country where the ENplus certification was implemented.


Primary Energy Cost Pellets vs other heating fuels

GPL

211

Gasolio riscaldamento

120

Gasolio agricolo

89

Pellet in autobotte 62

Legna da ardere(M20)

42

Cippato (M35)29

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

€/MWh


32

45

62

62

82

108

145

255

0 50 100 150 200 250

Wood chips M35

Wood logs M20

Bulk pellets

Pellet in small bags (15 kg)

Natural gas (residential)

Agricoltural heating oil

Heating oiò

LPG (residential)

October, 2014

�€/MWh

Primary Energy Cost Pellets vs other heating fuelsVAT and taxes included, delivery excluded

For the winter season the advantage will increase


Pellet prices in bags and in bulk

VAT and taxes included, delivery included

250

270

290

310

330

350

ott‐12 gen‐13 mag‐13 ago‐13 nov‐13 mar‐14 giu‐14 set‐14 dic‐14

€/t

pellet in bags pellet in bulk


THE CURRENT PELLET SUPPORT SCHEMES


Some Preliminary information

There is no specific support scheme specifically for pellets. The support of using pellet is included in other general systems

Pellet is supported trough two different schemes

Tax deduction. The deduction is allowed in 10 years for the 50% of expenses incurred for buying and installing a pellet stove.This support is included into the “Ristrutturazione edilizia”

Feed‐in‐tariffs for heating and cooling, known as ‘Conto termico’ is a scheme of support for small‐scale projects of energy efficiency improvement and production of thermal energy from Renewables.

1.

2.

The decree allocates every year € 700 million for projects implemented by private parties


Feed‐in‐tariffs ‘Conto termico’: short overview

Replacement of heating systems fed with heating oil, coke or biomass (NO NATURAL GAS) with new high efficient biomass boilers or local space heaters (85% of efficiency and emissions of PM, CO and COV below to a certain levels)

Eligible projects concern

This Feed‐in‐Tariffs, came into force on 3 January 2013 and implemented the Legislative Decree no. 28 /2011 which is the Italian application of the EU Directive RED 28/2009

What kind of biomass is allowed?

• Wood pellets certified in accordance with EN 14961‐2• Wood chips (in accordance with EN 14961‐4)• Wood logs (in accordance with EN 14961‐5)• Other not chemically treated biomass (in accordance with Dlgs

152/06)


Examples for pellet stoves (< 35 kW)


Examples for pellet boilers (< 35 kW)


CONCLUSIONS


• Italy is the biggest European Market for the

domestic use of pellets

• Italy is depending strongly from the importation

• The market logistics and organisation are changing

and in the close future North America will become

the major supplier

• Security of supply and stability of prices are the

main challenges for the future

Conclusions


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development of the italian pellet market 2- 05 - wpac 2014 - analize pa… · pellet boilers 66%...

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