development of the pathways to achieve se4all 2030 objectives
TRANSCRIPT
DEVELOPMENT OF PATHWAYS TO ACHIEVE THE
SE4ALL ENERGY EFFICIENCY OBJECTIVE:
Global and regional potential for energy efficiency improvements
J. Gregg, O. Solér, O. Balyk, C. Cabrera Pérez, S. La Greca
68th Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting
Sophia Antipolis, France
UN SE4ALL objectives
The 2030 objectives of the SE4ALL:
1) universal access to modern energy services
2) a doubling of the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency
3) a doubling of the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix
Guiding Question/ Objective
To determine what additional policy measures and technological developments are necessary in order to achieve the 2030 SE4ALL objectives for
• energy efficiency,
• renewable energy, and
• universal access to modern energy services.
Related questions:
• Regional and sectoral EE potential
• Effect on emissions and climate targets
• Co-Compatibility/ Synergy of targets
Method
Changes in:energy savings,
costs, tech profile, energy intensity, tech penetration,
GHG concentration, etc.
Alternative Pathway
Reference Scenario
2030: -universal access
-renewable energy targets-energy intensity targets
Current: -carbon price
-energy efficiency policies-traditional biomass use
-technology profiles
Alternative Scenario
ETSAP-TIAMReferencePathway
Assessment of Pathway
ETSAP-TIAM
Scenarios / Pathways
• Extensive scenario analysis conducted by IEA and IIASA in the literature, considering hundreds of scenarios and determining whether or not they meet the SE4ALL objectives.
• Current policies for EE, RE, and carbon are used to create the reference pathway. These inputs are included in all model runs.
• Alternative pathways are fixed exogenous inputs
• RE pathway from IRENA
• EE pathway a linear approach to 2.6% EIIR (Energy Intensity Improvement Rate) by 2030.
• Energy Access
Model Runs
•Reference - incl. current carbon policy, energy efficiency policy, energy efficiency barriers, and renewable energy share.
•Energy Efficiency (EE) - Achieve 2.6% EIIR by 2030 (this target approached linearly in the pathway)
•Renewable Energy (RE) - renewable energy targets such that the share of global renewable energy is doubled by 2030. Region-specific targets follow those outlined by International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) global renewable roadmap (REMap2030).
•EE and RE - combines the constraints from both the energy efficiency and renewable energy scenarios.
•EE, RE and Energy Access (EA) – increased electricity demand and phasing out of traditional biomass in addition to EE and RE constraints
ETSAP-TIAM Regions
ETSAP-TIAM Regions
AFR Africa
AUS Australia & NZ
CAN Canada
CHI China
CSA Central and South America
EEU Eastern Europe
FSU Former Soviet Union
IND India
JPN Japan
MEA Middle East
MEX Mexico
ODA Other Developing Asia
SKO South Korea
USA United States
WEU Western Europe
ETSAP-TIAM Structure
Climate
Module
Atm. Conc.
ΔForcing
ΔTemp
Used for
reporting &
setting
targets
Biomass
Potential
Renewable
Potential
Nuclear
Fossil Fuel
Reserves
(oil, coal, gas)
ExtractionUpstream
Fuels
Trade
Secondary
Transformation
OPEC/
NON-OPEC
regrouping
Electricity
Fuels
Electricity
Cogeneration
Heat
Hydrogen production
and distribution
End Use
Fuels
Industrial
Service
CompositionAuto Production
Cogeneration
Carbon
captureCH4 options
Carbon
sequestration
Terrestrial
sequestration
Landfills ManureBio burning, rice,
enteric fermWastewater
CH4 options
N2O options
CH4 options
OI****
GA****
CO****
Trade
ELC***
WIN SOL
GEO TDL
BIO***
NUC
HYD
BIO***
HETHET
ELCELC
SYNH2
BIO***
CO2
ELC
GAS***
COA***
Industrial
Tech.
Commercial
Tech.
Transport
Tech.
Residential
Tech.
Agriculture
Tech.I***
I** (6)T** (16)R** (11)C** (8)A** (1)
INDELC
INDELC
IS**
Demands
IND*** COM***AGR*** TRA***RES***
Non-energy
sectors (CH4)
OIL***
Time frame
• ETSAP-TIAM is calibrated to IEA 2005 data and this is the model base year
• Demand driver data were updated to 2010 data (IEA, World Bank, OECD)
• Modelling done on 5-year time steps until 2030.
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AFRAUSCANCHICSAEEUFSUINDJPNMEAMEXODASKOUSAWEUGlobal
Population Indices
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AFR
AUS
CAN
CHI
CSA
EEU
FSU
IND
JPN
MEA
MEX
ODA
SKO
USA
WEU
Global
GDP PPP Indices
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AFRAUSCANCHICSAEEUFSUINDJPNMEAMEXODASKOUSAWEUGlobal
Per Capita GDP Indices
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
AFRAUSCANCHICSAEEUFSUINDJPNMEAMEXODASKOUSAWEUGlobal
Size of Households
Details on Sectors
• Buildings (Residential and Commercial)
• Building envelope efficiency added as an option for investment
• Traditional biomass use in developed regions separated and phased out for residential cooking, heating, and hot water
• Transport
• Updated, new efficiency measures included for gasoline and diesel ICE (from Tom Kober, ECN)
• Includes Hybrids, EV and Hydrogen
• Industry
• Updated to allow for investments in energy efficiency (from Tom Kober, ECN)
– Non-metalic minerals
– Chemicals
– Non-ferrous metals
– Pulp and paper
– Other industries
Energy Efficiency in Buildings
RESBEI
COMBEI
𝑅𝐸𝑆𝐻𝑆
𝑅𝐸𝑆𝐶𝑆
Heat pumps
Chillers
Others tech
Residential space heating demand
Residential space cooling demand
Heat pumps
Wood stoves
Others tech
heating savings
cooling savings
Traditional Biomass
• Traditional Biomass is not represented explicitly in ETSAP-TIAM, but should not be counted as a modern renewable energy source
• Very little in the literature about this topic
• Estimates taken from GCAM 3.2 reference run
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
An
nu
al C
on
sum
pti
on
(P
J)
MEX
CSA
ODA
IND
CHI
AFR
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
An
nu
al C
on
sum
pti
on
(P
J)
MEX
CSA
ODA
IND
CHI
AFR
Reference Alternative:Meeting SE4ALL universal access objective
Carbon Price
Carbon Price
Region Industry Power Heat Buildings
Transport
(excluding
Aviation)
Agriculture Oil Coal
AFR
AUS
CAN 4.68 6.39 1.00
CHI 0.88 0.88 0.88
CSA
EEU 5.51 5.51 5.51
FSU 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.63 0.63
IND
JPN 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16 1.16
MEA
MEX 0.62 1.00
ODA
SKO 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93 4.93
USA 0.06 0.14
WEU 7.02 11.35 7.02 5.43
Calculated by scaling proportion of emissions from sector/fuel/area within each region.In 2005 USD per tonne CO2.
Energy Efficiency Targets
• Considered on a case by case basis. Scaled by country/sector on energy consumption data from Enerdata.
• GDP exogenous, so a target on energy intensity can be set in ETSAP-TIAM exogenously
Barriers to Energy Efficiency• Calculated from historical improvement rates in energy intensity (averaged
over 5 years to remove noise in data).
• Back calculated from exogenous GDP input in ETSAP-TIAM
Energy Intensity
RegionHistoric Max Energy Intensity Decrease
(%/year)Africa -2.16%
Australia/ New Zealand -2.52%
Canada -3.05%
China -3.95%
Central and South America -1.60%
Eastern Europe -5.42%
Former Soviet Union -5.49%
India -3.56%
Japan -2.24%
Middle East -0.74%
Mexico -3.08%
Other Developing Asia -1.82%
South Korea -2.28% (-2.75%)
USA -2.62%
Western Europe -2.19%
Combined Europe -2.36%
Renewable Energy Share
Based on IRENA REMap 2030. Alternative scenario is based on “Realistic Potential”.
RESULTS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
EJ/y
ear
Reference
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
EJ/y
ear
Renewable
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
EJ/y
ear
Energy Efficiency
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
EJ/y
ear
EE & RE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
EJ/y
ear
EE, RE & Energy Access
Renewable except hydroand biomassHydro
Biomass
Traditional Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Total Primary Energy Consumption
5.6
4.94.5 4.3 4.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Reference
5.6
4.94.5 4.3 4.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Renewable
5.6
4.94.5
4.13.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Energy Efficiency
5.64.9
4.54.1
3.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
EE & RE
5.6
4.94.5
4.13.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
EE, RE & Energy Access Title
AFR AUS
CAN CHI
CSA EEU
FSU IND
JPN MEA
MEX ODA
SKO USA
WEU Global
Primary Energy Intensity of GDP (MJ/USD 2005)
Final Energy Consumption
Reference
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
EJ/Y
ear
Industry Transport Residential
Commercial Agriculture
Energy Efficiency
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20
10
20
15
20
20
20
25
20
30
EJ/Y
ear
Industry Transport Residential
Commercial Agriculture
Savings in FEC (2015-2030): EE vs. REF
By sector By regionAgriculture
0%Commercial
5%
Industry48%
Residential14%
Transport33%
AFR1%
CHI22%
CSA9%
EEU1%
FSU7%
IND12%
MEA3%
SKO2%
USA25%
WEU18%
Total savings: 16 EJ
CO2 Emissions in 2030 (Gt CO2/year)
31.4
44.4
36.5
42.6
34.836.5
RCP 2.6 Reference Energy Efficiency(EE)
RenewableEnergy (RE)
EE&RE EE&RE&EA
Conclusions
• Largest amount of energy saving occurs in industry and transportation sector.
• The regions were most of energy savings in FEC takes place are: USA, CHI, and WEU
• Even achieving the RE and EE targets, additional climate policies will be necessary to achieve a path to a 2-degree target
• Even more so when the Energy Access target is considered
Questions?
Thank you for attention!