development opportunity analysis … opportunity analysis chugach mountain valley lodge volume four...
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DEVELOPMENT OPPORTUNITY ANALYSISCHUGACH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LODGE
VOLUME FOUR
September, 1994
Prepa red j()r:
Anchorage Economic Development Corporation
Prepared b)l:
Davidson-Peterson Associates, Inc.The Office of Thomas J. MartinDavid L. Dahlquist Associates
Tryck, Nyman, Hayes, Inc.GDI\tl, Inc.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
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Introduction i
I. Project Concept 1
II. Site Considerations 5
Ill. Comparable Projects 7
IV. Market Support Considerations 9
V. Facility Sizing 11
VI. Development Costs 14
VII. Regulatory Environment 16
VIII. Financial Feasibility 18
IX. Development Strategies 25
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INTRODUCTION
The following development opportunity is a result of a comprehensive evaluation of the
potential for the continued development of tourism in the Anchorage area with a
particular emphasis on winter tourism development. This development opportunity
represents a project which could be developed within the context of the overall strategy
for increased tourist activity in the Anchorage area.
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I. PROJECT CONCEPT
The Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge would provide a rare accommodation facility and
experiences for visitors to Anchorage at any season of the year, but primarily in the
winter season of late October through March. This project would derive its primary and
special characteristics from several existing assets. The Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge
would:
...Be located in one of the scenic valleys of the Chugach Mountains;
...Provide guests with direct access to a portion of the network oftrails associated with the Chugach State Park;
...Have direct vehicular access from the existing road and highwaysnetwork of Anchorage;...
...Provide a supplemental type of accommodation not presentlyavailable in the Anchorage Bowl or surrounding communities;
...Stress an "Alaska outdoor" experience for guests in all aspects ofthe project --marketing image. site of facilities. design of thebuilding and its interiors;
...Demonstrate a high sensiti\,ity to the natural environment throughthe project"s planning. design. construction and operations.
Guests of the Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge could enjoy a variety of experiences and
attendant facilities. Being a lodge first and foremost. the primaf)' offering would be
accommodations for short as \\'ell as extended stays. Forty to sixty lodging rooms would
be pro\,ided with each containing a main bedroom and sitting area. a full private bath.
and entry way. All lodging rooms \...'ould he in one huilding with connecting corridors and
hallways. Rooms on the ground level may have a second direct exterior egress. The
building would afford each guest room with a good view of the spectacular surrounding
scenery .
An equally important experience and facility would be a full-ser\,ice restaurant offering
breakfast. lunch and dinner m~I1Us. Bar ser\,ice and Sp~IC~ \\'ould ..llso he provided. While
the restaurant's primary function w()uld he to ser\'e I()dge accommodation guests, it is
anticipated that it would also ..lppeal to local residents.
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While the primary facilities of the Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge would be accommodations
and the restaurant, the primary attraction for guests would be the opportunities to
experience Alaska outdoors. Opportunities for guest., would range from simply having
relaxed time to view the spectacular scenery surrounding the Lodge, to actively
participating in the various trail-based winter recreation activities: Nc;>rdic skiing,
skijoring, dog mushing, possibly snow machining and others. Options for participating
would range from guests using their own personal trail equipment, to renting equipment,
receiving instruction at beginning, intermediate and advanced levels, to taking guided
tours of the back country of Chugach State Park. Each package of equipment rental,
instruction and guide services would have a range of pricing. Providing these services
to guests introduces new income-generating opportunities for local residents who could
provide instruction. guide ser\/ices, equipment rental and other services under contract
with the Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge management. Typical length of stay would range
from one night to as long as several weeks. It is anticipated that most parties would
stay in the range of 4 to 6 nights.
While the principal purpose of the Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge project is to serve
tourism development in the \\linter months. the project would be planned, designed and
constructed to operate in similar ways during the late spring. summer and early fall
months.,
Summer opportunities for guests would als() he focused on providing an Alaska outdoors
experience. Vie\\ling scenery. ohser\ling plants and animals, and using thc hiking trails
would be the primary :.lttr:.lctions during the summer. Except for possihle shutdowns for
maintenance. restaur:.lnt. bar service. entertainment, .lnd guest ser\/ices would be provided
on a year-round hasis. Marginal operations or shut-do\\/n for annual maintenance and
refurhishing would occur during the late fall ~lnu "hreak-up" period of early spring.
In summary, the Chugach Mc)untain Valley Lougc pro.icct \\-"c)ulu incluue the folll)\\'ing
features:
Core requirements:
.Site area of 4() to gO .lcres is desirahle
.A single perm~lnent structure which \\'ould contain and enclose:
...Fc)rty to sjxt~' guest rO()IllS
...COlllllll)n I()uge entr~1 ~lnu lohhy
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...Guest registration and information
...Full-service restaurant and kitchen with attendant
equipment and storage
...Bar and evening entertainment area
...Meeting rooms
...Gift shop
...Porch and observation decks
...Manager's apartment...Hallways, corridors, elevators, and stairways
...Storage, laundry and maintenance areas
...Mechanical and utility spaces
...Outdoor equipment barn
.Site development. including:
...Access drives from existing road
...Parking for guests and staff
...Deli\fery. unloading and drop-off zones
...Site amenities and landscape plantings
...Trail heads and trail extensions to meet with existing
public trails
...Roadv..'ay. parking. and path lighting
...Concealed storage of materials and trash
...Utility ser\!ices would probably have to be brought to the
site
...Septic system to he constructed on site
...Water ser\rice from \--fell to be installed on site
...Utility ser\'ice appurtenances
.Access tt) the tr~lils of Chugach State Park
.Go()d orientation t() winter sun
;:: Overall de\fel()pment and ()p~rations plan for pro\fiding
environmental Iv sensiti\fe constructions and sustainable
operations.
The sketch presented in Figure 1. while not based on a specific design for the Chugach
Mountain Valley Lodge. illustrates the o\ferall character and scale of the project.
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II. SITE CONSIDERATIONS
Site and location for the Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge is an important consideration in
providing an uncompromised visual experience of the Alaska outdoors, and is essential to
the success of this proposed project. The concept is to bring Alaska to Anchorage.
For the Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge to successfully offer guests the desired
experiences, a number of factors need to be met. These include:
...Direct vehicular access to existing highway and street networks~
...Location in one of the valleys of the Chugach Mountains;
...An outdoor setting relatively free of commercial and residentialdevelopment and intrusions~
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...A site relatively close to or with direct access to the existingtrail network of the Chugach State Park;
...A preference to consider privately-owned lands for the developmentof this project;
...Winter sun access with relatively good exposure or orientation tolow winter sun;
...Topography not so steep as to present difficulties fordevelopment;
...Attractive surrounding valleys and mountains, providing scenicvistas.
Following an assessment of many locations in the overall Anchorage municipal area, a
number of valley regions were identified as potentially offering locations for the Valley
Lodge. These regions are:
Eklutna River Valley near Eklutna Lake;
North side of Eagle River in the \1icinity of the Eagle RiverVisitor Center;
Rabbit Creek Valley
Bird Creek Valley
For additional information regarding locations for the Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge,
please contact the Anchorage Economic De\1elopment Corporation.
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III. COMPARABLE PROJECTS
There are no current comparable projects in the Anchorage area. The potentially
comparable projects are currently located in more remote areas of Alaska and in other
parts of the U.S. and Canada. The Kenai Princess Lodge is one example of the Valley
Lodge concept. This project is located near Cooper Landing on a bluff above the Kenai
River, about a two-hour drive south of Anchorage. The 43-acre property is located within
the Chugach National Forest, and next to the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge. There is a
Main Lodge which includes a reception area, small bar/lounge, and 80-seat restaurant, as
well as a small conference/meeting room. Other facilities include a gift and Christmas
shop, hot tubs, an exercise room, and an RV park. The 50 rooms/suites are located in a
series of free-standing buildings in a landscaped area adjacent to the Main Lodge.
Quoted rates are $165 for a singe/double from June 1 through September 15, and $200 for a
suite, with winter rates somewhat lower. The Lodge is currently adding 10 more units.
Activities and organized tours at the Lodge include nature hikes, "flight-seeing," float
trips. fishing, and wildlife tours at Kenai Fjords National Park, which is an hour away
in Seward.
The Kennicott Glacier Lodge is another example of a back-country lodge. The Kennicott
Glacier Lodge was built to resemble an historic structure which burned in 1983. In 1992,
it was expanded to its current size of 25 guest rooms in one structure, which also
includes a dining area and common area lounges. The Lodge is open seasonally from May 15
through September 20, with private rooms ranging between $119 and $199 per night
depending upon occupancy. Because of its isolated location. the Lodge generates its own
electricity (11Ov, 60hz). Located ahout an X to 9 hour drive from Ancho~age in the
Wrangell-St. Elias National P.lrk, the Lodge offers its guests a variety of activities
including hiking, mountain climbing. glacier hiking. ice climbing, flight-seeing and
river rafting.
Data in Figure 2 gives information on some smaller-scale projects that are particularly
oriented to outdoor recreation and \\'inter sports activities.
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Figure 2
CHARACTERISTICS OF LODGE PRODUCTS
# of Room Activities/AmenitiesRooms Rate
Alaska:
Kennicott Glacier 25 $150-$220 Open summer season only --
Lodge activities include glacier hikes, iceclimbing, river rafting, flight-seeing,mountain climbing.
Kenai Princess 50 $ 99-$160 Open 10 months --activities includeLodge Room hiking, ski touring, fishing, river
$150-$200 rafting, flight-seeing.Suite
Westmark Cape 72 $ 98-$148 Urban property -located above theFox Lodge; downtown area of Ketchikan -offersKetchikan dining room and lounge, gift shop
and access to area attractions.
Other Locations:
Lone Mt. Ranch at 23 $173-$267 Near Yellowstone Park and theBig Sky, Montana rooms, Spanish Peaks. Nordic ski area with
Rustic overnight wildernessCabins accommodations. Also snow-cat
tours.
Garnet Hill Lodge; 16 rooms $70 per Adjacent to Siamese PondsAdirondacks, New 3 houses person, wilderness. 50,000 acres of hillsYork State with food and mountains --superior winterresort for Nordic skiing. .
Trapp Family 93 rooms $81-$144 Modern lodge set on 2,000 acres inLodge, Vermont Green Mts. with extensive ski-
touring, ski school, 100 km trailslinked with Mt. Mansfield.
Mountain Top Inn; 50 rooms $105-$126 1,300 acre resort with winter andVermont summer activities including hiking,
ski-touring on 67 miles of trails,horseback riding, etc.
Source: Hotel and Travel Index, and survey of individual projects.
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IV. MARKET SUPPORT CONSIDERATIONS
There are estimated to be approximately 5,900 rooms available in Anchorage in 111
properties, ranging from large hotels in downtown Anchorage and near the Airport to bed &
breakfast properties. Seventy percent of the properties have fewer than 25 rooms. Due
to the peak demand in the summer months, room rates are relatively high. Current rates
quoted in the summer 1994 edition of Hotel & Travel Index for standard rooms in selected
properties are as follows:
Hotel Rate
Alyeska Prince Resort Hotel $170-$325
Anchorage Hilton $110-$260
Anchorage Super "S" $ 90-$111
Barratt Inn $ 65-$150
Holiday Inn $125-$140
Regal Alaskan $112-$150
Sheraton Anchorage $157-$205
Westmark Anchorage $110-$162
The lodging industry in Anchorage is characterized hy high occupanC)' in the peak summer
seasons and lower occupancy in the winter months due to the seasonality of visitation to
Anchorage.
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Typical monthly occupancy rates are shown in the text table below.
Month 1992
January 52% ~
February 60%
March 59%
April 56%
May 65 %
June 85%
July 93%
August 89%
September 67%
October (jO%
November 52%
December 52 %
S()urct:: Anchor.lge C"B.
Even with these considerations, the De..."tillatio/1 Alaska report indicated a shortage of
447 rooms in the peak months in Anchorage. and a need to provide more variety of
accommodations. Since this report was published, the Alyeska Prince Resort Hotel has
opened a four-season property with 307 rooms. The Alyeska Prince Resort Hotel provides a
major new resource for winter tourism and should help to develop and expand the winter
market for Anchorage.
The type of accommodations a\'ailable in Anchorage (\,-rith the notable exception of the
Alyeska Prince Resort Hotel. which \,-'ill open in September 1994) are oriented to the
business visitor and to the group trade represented by the cruise ship operations. There
are no resort-type properties which could cater to the winter visitor (or the summer
visitOr), and pro\,ide for an "Alaska" experience with direct access to the activities
available in the outdoors. The proposed project is meant to address this market niche
\\/ith particular emphasis on the winter-time acti\,ities available in the Anchorage area.
Because of its relatively small size. the proposed project \\/ould be able to work within
the context of the existing hOtel stock very \\'ell, and be considered as a supplement to
the existing stock of rooms.
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V. FACILITY SIZING
This section outlines essential program information for this project. Suggested land
areas, allocation of building floor spaces, and identification of site development
features, while not based on a specific design for this project, represent a compilation
of information from similar projects. Refinements, adjustments, and modifications of
this information can be expected to accurately reflect local conditions, selection of a
site(s) for the project, actual project design plans, and the objectives of prospective
developers and investors.
Land Area Needs
Land required to adequately site the primary building and its attendant utility
structures, access and service driveways, parking areas for staff and guests, landscape
amenities, and other incidental features will range from 40 to 60 acres, This includes
an allowance for on-site buffering and screening; however, additional land may need to be
controlled through easement or acquired in fee title to assure maintenance of scenic
views for guests from the Valley Lodge. Some potential locations for the Valley Lodge
may also require additional land for development of an exclusive access road.
Building Program and Space Assignments
The concept for the Valley Lodge and a review of comparable projects suggests that the
primary structure for this project will involve construction of approximately 35,000
square feet. Based on the program presented herein. a schedule of space assignments
would be similar to the outline presented in Figure 3.
Site Development Features
Site development for the Valley Lodge will also involve the construction and installation
of a variety of features listed in Figure 4. Water supply and sewerage treatment
requirements are expected to he 7,500 gallons per day.
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Figure 3
CHUGACH MOUNTAIN VAlLEY LODGE SPACE ASSIGNMENTS
SPACE SQ. FT. TOTALS
1. GUEST ROOMS:50 Rooms (Min. room dimension 12X24) 14,400Circulation at 15% (corridors) 3,000Ice, vending, maid & linen storage, at 5% 1,200
SUB-TOTAL 18,600
2. PUBUC SPACES:Arctic Vestibule 200Administration, Front Desk, Expeditor 600Dining Room 1,400Kitchen 1,000Lobby/Rrepiace 1 ,200Public Restrooms for Lobby (2 @ 100 sq.ft.) 200Gift Shop 300
SUB-TOTAL 4,900
3. BACK OF HOUSE:Storage 400
Med1anicai (Ventilation Equipment) 200T elephone/T. V. 125Manager's Apt (1 bdrrn/1 bath) 625Rrst Aid Room 120Locker Room (Lockers, staff toilet) 400Housekeeping Office 100Unen ~inen storage only) 50Housekeeping Storage 50Circulation, at 15% 350Trash/Recyciing Room 250Receiving/Storage 500Secure Storage 45
SUB-TOTAL 3,215
4. UNASSIGNABLE SPACE:Wall thicknesses, pipe chases, etc. @ 5% of total 1,336
BUILDING TOTAL 28,051
Outdoor Equipment Barn/Generator & Boiler Bldg.:Generator, Heating Plant Snow Machine Storage,Ski Lockers, Waxing Room, Equipment Rental 2.400
Porch and Deck 1 .500
SUB-TOTAL 3.900
PROJECT TOTAL 31,951100/0 Contingency 3,195BLDG. AREA USED FOR COST FORECAST 35,146
Source: GDM, Inc.
1162SP1.XLS9/15/94
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Figure 4
CHUGACH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LODGE -SITE DEVELOPMENT FEATURES
Item Description
On-site septic system Requires soil investigation, ground water andnitrate monitoring, and permitting. Constructionwill include lift station, septic tanks, 10,000 sq.ft.drain field, and various incidentals.
On-site water system Assumes a 200-foot well, treatment system andbuilding, and on-site distribution system.
Requires permitting.
Site grading Minimum impact grading and preservation ofexisting vegetation for building, driveways,parking areas, and utilities.
Access road and service Hard-surfaced drives for guest vehicles, buses,drives and delivery vehicles.
Parking Involves hard surfacing for 50 to 75 parkingspaces (with final requirements established byzoning ordinances), landscape buffering, sitelighting, and connecting sidewalks.
Landscape amenities Includes walkways and paths, nativelandscaping, sitting areas, retaining walls, trailheads, and other features.
Source: Tryck Nyman Hayes, Inc.
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VI. D EVELO PMENT CO STS
The schedule of probable costs presented by data in Figure 5 covers many of the likely
development features for the project. Other development cost items are included in data
in Figure 10. This estimate reflects typical construction costs associated with similar
projects, but does not reflect a specific site or design for the Valley Lodge. The
schedule of probable costs is based on square footage and lump sum costs associated with
similar projects and types of construction in the Anchorage area. A number of features
which will have cost implications for the project are not included in this schedule as
well. These might include costs for:
.Extension of utilities and roads from off-site locations;
.Off-site project information centers and guest reservation
systems;
.Contract guest sef\/ices such as winter sports equipment rental,instructions, and outfitting.
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Figure 5
CHUGACH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LODGE. CONSTRUCTION COST FORECAST
Date of Estimate: 9/6/94 location: Muni of Structure Type: Type 5 -1 HRArchitect: GDM, Inc. Anchorage Mountains Estimate Type: ConceptualContractor: Fair Cost -Owner: Private Total Area: 35,150 sq.ft.
no prevailing wage Developer
Diy. Description Labor Materials Sub-Contracts Totals
1 General Conditions $ 376,800 $ 251,200 $ 628,0002 Site Work/landscaping $ 750,000 $ SOO,OOO $ 1,250,0003 Concrete $ 126,000 $ 84,000 $ 210,0004 Masonry5 Metals $ 25,200 $ 16,800 $ 42,0006 Carpentry $ 276,600 $ 184,400 $ 461,0007 Moisture Protection $ 151,200 $ 100,800 $ 252,0008 Doors & Windows $ 75,600 $ 50,400 $ 126,0009 Finishes $ 326,400 $ 217,600 $ 544,000
10 Specialties11 Equipment $ 100,800 $ 67,200 $ 168,00012 Furnishings $ 50,400 $ 33,600 $ 84,00013 Special Construction14 Conveying Sys1ems15 Mechanical $ 607,000 $ 607,00016 Electrical $ 378,000 $ 378,000
Total: $ 2,259,000 $1,506,000 $ 985,000 $ 4,750,000
Contract Overhead and Profit15% laborSOlo MaterialSOlo Other CostsSOlo Sub-Contracts
Mark-Ups: $ 338,850 $ 120,480 $ 59,100 $ 518,430
Sub-Total: $ 5,268,430
Builders Risk Insurance 0.75% $ 39,513Contract Bond 1.75% $ 92,198Contingency 5.00% $ 263,422
TOTAL ESTIMATED CONSTRUCTION COST: $ 5,663,562
Source: GDM, Inc.
1162CON1.XLS9/1 5/94
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VII. REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT
Planning, developing, and operating the Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge will be subject to a
number of federal, state and municipal requirements and regulations. The list presented
below outlines many of the apparent permits and approvals that may be required. Thesymbol "*" indicates those which will most likely be involved with this project.
Coastal Project Questionnaire -Through this questionnaire, the Division of Governmental
Coordination, a State of Alaska office, coordinates State and Federal Natural Resource
Permits.
Federal approvals:
US Forest Ser\,ice Lands
US Coast Guard -Navigable Waters* US Corps of Engineers (CaE) -Wetlands
US Environmental Protection- National Pollution Discharge Elimination Permit
State approvals:* Department of Natural Resources -Chugach Park Advisory Commission
* Department of Fish & Game -Habitat
* Department of Environmental Conser\'ation -Drainage, Noise, Septic Systems, Wells
Other state appro\'als::;: Department of Transportation -Right ofWa)' Permits~ Utilit)' Agreements
:;: Fire Marshal -Hydrants; Fire Lanes & Signage
Municipality of Anchorage .Type of project determines need for:
Planning and zoning:* Conditional Use
* Public Facility Project Landscape Review
Condition of Approval of Previous Case
Variances
Subdivision Approval" * Zoninu Chanue~ry-- :;,:;
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Approval requirements and standards approved by:
Zoning Board of Appeals
Platting Board* Urban Design Commission
* Planning and Zoning Commission
Wetlands* Community Councils
Public Works approval:* Gradino and Drainaoe Permits
0 0
* Driveway Permit
Flood Hazard Permit
Building safety:* Building Permit
Utility Services -Project developers will need to determine whether public or private
utilities serve the specific project site. Various agreements and easements will likely
be needed.
Public -Anchorage Water & Wastewater (AWWU)
Sewer Sef\!ice -Notice of Intent to Discharge
Water
Private -Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC)
..Requires DEC Permit
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VIII. FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY
A financial feasibility analysis of the prototype Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge was
conducted using the project concept and market support consideration prepared in this
report. Basic assumptions in the analysis include the following:
...Total development and land costs of $8.05 million for a fifty room
lodge with accompanying full-service restaurant and gift shop.
This cost does not include access. utility provision or associated
recreational facility development. "Standard" financing terms for
a project of this type are assumed.
...The lodge is operated year-round. but at reduced lodging capacity
during the winter months. The project would be designed to close
down some rooms during slow periods, and this would save on
utilities and other expenses.
...Restaurant and gift shop facilities receive heavy usage by guests,
and in addition receive market support from other tourists in the
area as well as local residents.
...Visitor activities such as cross-country skiing, dog-sledding,
hiking, fishing. touring. biking etc. are assumed to be provided
by outside contractors. This analysis has not assumed revenue
generation for the lodge fr()m recreational activities.
...High summer occupancy r.ltes and winter and shoulder season outdoor
activity programming allow for .In acceptable overall usage
pattern.
...Room rates are .It a base ()f $140 during the winter with a premium
for shoulder and slimmer seasons.
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Pro Fonna Summary
Data in Figure 6 presents annual operating projections for a single /stable/ or typical
year at a Chugach Mountain Valley Lodge. Summer months are the busiest and have the
highest room rates. Income from non-lodging guests peaks during this period as well.
However, the winter months of November through April contribute about 35 percent of total
revenue, which is crucial to project feasibility. During the winter and to a lesser
degree the summer, the majority of meals are assumed to be taken at the lodge. Operating
expenses are assumed to be typical of a project of this type, except that utilities are
much higher than for projects in the lower 48 states. Additional detailed assumptions
used in the analysis are shown by data in Figure 10.
Data in Figure 7 uses the single year analysis of Figure 6 to project operations for a
10-year period. This analysis includes two project expansions of 25 rooms each in years
4 and 7, which yields a total project size of 100 rooms. This growth pattern is based on
the growth in the Alaska tourism economy and the substantial market position such a
project would enjoy.
Data in Figure 8 presents a financial analysis of the feasibility and attractiveness of
the project to an investor/operator. Based on the assumed construction costs, land costs
and operating income potential. along with standard financing assumptions as presented in
Figure 9, the project may have considerable investor appeal, as represented by a 27
percent internal rate of return on investment.
Data in Figure 10 presents many underlying assumptions to the analysis.
Given the income expense and capital cost assumptions underlying the feasibility
analysis, at stable operations, this project could cover its debt service with a debt
coverage ratio of 1.2 to 1.6 in different years. and produce a developer.s return on
equity of 27 percent. This project assumes a phased expansion program which lowers
project risk. Therefore, based on the scope of this analysis, the Chugach Mountain
Valley u)dge project promises to he financially feasihle and is worthy of more detailed
analysis and planning.
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Figure 9
PRO FORMA OPERATING PROJECTIONSCHUGACH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LODGE, ANCHORAGE, ALASKA
DEBT SERVICE ANALYSIS
Debt Service Analysis
Interest Rate 8.5%Financing Period 20 Years
.Outstanding Total TotalPrincipal Annual Interest
Years Amount Payments Portion
Phase I $ 6,437,000
1 $ 6,437,000 $ 680,204 $ 547,145
2 6,303,941 680,204 535,835
3 6,159,572 680,204 523,564
4 (Phase II) 10,286,858 1,087,022 874,383
5 10,074,219 1,087,022 856,309
6 9,843,505 1,087,022 836,698
7 (Phase II) 14,274,343 1,508,384 1,213,319
8 13,979,279 1,508,384 1,188,239
9 13,659,134 1,508,384 1,161,026
10 13,311,776 1,508,384 1,131,501
REVERSIONARY VALUE (SALE)
10th Year Operating Income $ 2,933,434
Overall Capitalization Rate 12.0%
Reversionary Value $ 24,445,280
Less Cost of Sale $ 977,811
Less Mortgage Repayment $ 12,934,894
Net Proceeds Before taxes $ 10,532,575
Source: Office of Thomas J. Martin 1162htl3.xls17 9/94
--,j.,'+
Agure 10
PRO FORMA OPERATING PROJECTIONSANALYSIS ASSUMPTIONS
CHUGACH MOUNTAIN VALLEY LODGE, ANCHORAGE, ALASKA
Develo ment and Construction Assum tions 0 tions
Building Size in SF Phase I 35,000 Rooms Depart. Expense % to Rooms Revenue 25%
Gift St"M:>p Square Footage 300 Net Margin on Food & Beverage 80%
Development Hard Costs Per SF Phase I $ 162.00 Admin. & Gen. % of Gross Revenue -Plus 2.5%
Building Size in SF Phase II 22,000 Administrative Axed Cost $ 125,000
Development Hard Costs Per SF Phase II $ 177.02 Marketing % of Gross Revenue 5.0%
Building Size in SF Phase III 22,000 MainL & Operation % of Gross Revenue 4.5%
Development Hard Costs Per SF Phase III $ 193.44 Energy and Utilities Cost Per SF $ 7.00
Development Soft Costs % to Hard Costs 25% Property Taxes as a % of Construction Cost 1.0%
FF&E Costs as a % of Hard Costs 10% Insurance % of Gross Revenue 1.0%
Number of rooms Phase I 50 Miscellaneous % of Gross Revenue 5.0%
Number of rooms Phase II 50 % increase in Non Departmental Expenses
Land Acquisition Cost $ 250,000 Upon Project Expansion Phases 20%
Gift Shop Cost of Goods Sold 50%
OperatinQ Assumptions Financial Assumptions
Basic Room Rate $ 140 Permanent Financing Interest Rate 8.50%
Shoulder Season Premium To Room Rate 15.0% Anancing Period -Years 20
Summer Premium To Room Rate 25.0% Debt/Equity Ratio 80%
Persons Per Room 2 Cash Row Discount Rate 1 ~/o
Average Nights Stayed at Facility 3.00 Residual Cap Rate 12.0%
Rooms closed during Winter months 20 10th Year Sales Cost 4.0%
Visitor Daily Food & Beverage Spending $ 40.00 Inflation Rate 3.0%
Avg. Per Person Non-Lodging FoodExpenditures $ 12.00
Growth In Demand for Food & Lodging
Until Full Capacity Is Reached 2%
Other Revenue Per Visitor $ 2.00
Total Gift St"M:>p Sales Per Square Foot $ 250.00
Source: Office of Thomas J. Martin 1162htl3.x1s1 9/94
--25
IX. DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
There are a number of sites within Anchorage where the proposed development can occur.
The Anchorage Economic Development Corporation supports the development initiative
outlined in this report and requests that potential developers contact AEDC for more
information on this development opportunity.
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