developments real estate & construction market...
TRANSCRIPT
DevelopmentsReal Estate & Construction market
Morocco
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Presentation byMEYS Emerging Markets Research
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Profile Construction & Real Estate sector Morocco
▪ Construction & Public Works (excluding Real Estate) is 6.5% of GDP (2016)
▪ Total Value Added of Construction & Public Works (excluding Real Estate) is 58.2 billiondirhams (2016)
▪ Approximately 60.000 companies (formal)
▪ 90% are SMEs (turnover < 75 million dirham)
▪ With a turnover of 7.1 billion dirhams (2016) conglomerate Addoha is the largestMoroccan real estate company in Morocco
▪ The largest Moroccan construction company is SGTM with a turnover of around 3.9 billion dirhams (2016)
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Sub-sector Market size (2016)
Steel and Aluminium construction works 8 billion dirhams
Steel and Aluminium production 21 billion dirhams
Building materials (cement, concrete, bricks, ceramics, marble) 25 billion dirhams
Real estate developers and construction companies (incl. infrastructure):
Private 84 billion dirhams
Public 17 billion dirhams
Market size formal 155 billion dirhams
Market size informal 35 billion dirhams
Total market size 190 billion dirhams
Total market size Real Estate & Contruction sector is estimated byMEYS at 190 billion dirhams (17 billion euros)
Source: HCP, Ministry of Finance, Maroc1000.net, annual reports, business associations
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960.000
980.000
1.000.000
1.020.000
1.040.000
1.060.000
1.080.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total (formal) employment in Construction*
Total employment in Construction is around one millionpeople (10% of total formal employment)
Note: (*) informal sector provides over 210,000 jobsSource: Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning
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-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0%
Growth rate y/y Construction Industry Growth rate y/y GDP
Growth rate construction industry lagging behindnational economy
Source: HCP; compiled by MEYS
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-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q3
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
Annual growth rate local cement consumption (%)
Slow recovery growth rate cement consumption in 2017Overcapacity in the market leads to downward pressure on cement prices
Source: APC, Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning; compiled by MEYS
15,116,2
19,120,4 20,6 21 21 21 21 21
14 14,5 14,616,1 15,9
14,914,1 14,2 14,2 13,8
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Cement market Morocco
Production capacity cement (Mt)
Consumption cement (Mt)
Source: APC, BMCE Capital
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Size of the current Moroccan housing market7 .1 million housing units occupied, of which 65% in urban areas
Urban % Rural % Total %
Housing units occupied 4 627 110 74,8 2 444 008 91,3 7 071 118 79,8
Housing units vacant 986 441 15,9 100 705 3,8 1 087 146 12,3
Housing units seasonal occupied 574 833 9,3 131 288 4,9 706 121 8,0
Total housing units 6 188 384 69,8 2 676 001 30,2 8 864 385 100
Source: HCP Maroc
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0,4%
1,1%
1,3%
3,9%
6,6%
7,3%
8,3%
11,0%
12,5%
12,8%
13,9%
20,9%
0,0% 5,0% 10,0% 15,0% 20,0% 25,0%
Dakhla-Oued Ed Dahab
Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra
Guelmim-Oued Noun
Drâa-Tafilalet
Oriental
Béni Mellal-Khénifra
Souss-Massa
Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma
Fès-Meknès
Marrakech-Safi
Rabat-Salé-Kénitra
Grand Casablanca-Settat
Number of current housing units occupied per region (% of total)
Largest number of housing units occupied in Morocco’s four main citiesCasablanca, Rabat, Marrakech, and Fes
Source: HCP Maroc
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Total demand for housing is estimated at 1.6 million units1.4 million in urban areas, 0.2 million units in rural areas
Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning
Regional Main cities
Higher volumes in residential sales since 2010More than 80% of residential property sales consist of appartments
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35.000
45.000
55.000
65.000
75.000
85.000
95.000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sales residential property (number of transactions)
Source: ANFCC, BAM
Market size commercial real estateGrand Casablanca is dominating the national market of real estate property
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• Total constructed floor space commercial real estate in 2016: 1.85 million m2
• Since 2009 annual average constructed floor space real estate is around 1.7 – 1.8 million m2, with exception of 2014
• Grand Casablanca largest real estate market with a share of 15% in national volume
• Total (expected) value of construction projects commercial real estate in 2016: 4.2 billiondirhams (approx. 380 million euros)
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Constructed floor space commercial property Morocco (1,000 m2)
Source: HCP Maroc
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8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Constructed floor space
(1,000 m2)
Residential Other
Lower volumes constructed floor space since 2013On average 80% is for construction of residential property
Source: HCP Maroc
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
450.000
500.000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total number started newly built houses
Social Market
Lower volume new social housing projectsBetween 2018 – 2022 Government objective to build 800,000 new social housingunits, mainly appartments
Source: FNPI, Ministry of Housing and Urban Planningwww.meys.eu
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6.500
7.000
7.500
8.000
8.500
9.000
9.500
10.000
10.500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Government investments in real estate activities*
(million dirham)
Government investments in real estate increases since 2011Social housing programs important benificiary public investment funds
Note: (*) include investments in public real estate companies and tax advantages for social housing programsSource: Ministry of Finance; compiled by MEYS
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Two types of social housing programs initiated since 2008 as part of reducing the nationalhousing deficit:- 250,000 dirham social housing program; objective to build 300,000 houses between 2010 - 2020- 140,000 dirham social housing program; primarily aimed at reducing the number of
‘bidonvilles’ or city slums in Morocco; objective to build 130,000 houses between 2008 - 2020
Main results ‘250,000 dirham program’ by theend of 2017:- 595,794 housing
units receivedauthorisation forconstruction
- 221,660 housingunits are still underconstruction
- 366,462 housingunits have been completed
- 70% of the realisedconstruction projectsare in three regionsCasablanca (45%), Tanger (13%), Rabat (12%)
- 96% developed byprivate sector
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Main results ‘140,000 dirham housing program’ by end 2017:- 44,239 housing units received authorisation for construction- 9,838 housing units are still under construction- 28,549 housing units have been completed- 91% of the realised housing projects are in the five regions Fes/Meknes (27%), Souss Massa (22%),
Casablanca (17%), Marrakech (16%), Oriental (9%)- 60% developed by private sector
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50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Volume real estate loans in Morocco*
(million dirhams)
Total Households Developers
Total volume in real estate loans has increased with more than30% since 2010 to almost 260 billion dirhamsReal estate loans to households has highest share (75%)
Note: (*) level in DecemberSource: BAM
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5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Direct foreign investments in Moroccan real estate
(million dirham)
Source: Office des Changes, Ministry of Housing and Urban Planning
Strong increase FDI in Moroccan real estate since 2013Average % of real estate in FDI 2008 – 2017 27.1%; 2000 – 2007 12.6%
Mojor investors Moroccan real estate market
High volume money transfers Moroccan migrants85% is invested in real estate (primarily housing)
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50.000
52.000
54.000
56.000
58.000
60.000
62.000
64.000
66.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Total money transfers MRE (million dirhams)
Source: Office des Changes
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100
109
105
110
104
102
108
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
113
115
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Turnover Construction & Real Estate market*
(2010 = 100)
10098
85
89
61
54 53
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Net results Construction & Real Estate market*
(2010 = 100)
Increase turnover Real Estate & Construction companiesLower market prices reduces net results
Note: (*) turnover largest construction & real estate companies in MoroccoSource: Annual reports companies; compiled by MEYS
Note: (*) Net result largest construction & real estate companies in MoroccoSource: Annual reports companies; compiled by MEYS
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MarrakechRedevelopment inner city (570 million euro):▪ Infrastructure▪ Touristic sites
CasablancaCasablanca Port (570 million euro):▪ Shipyard▪ Fishing port▪ Marina▪ Commercial▪ Restaurants▪ Residential
TangerTanger Metropole (730 million euro):▪ Marina▪ Cruise terminal▪ Commercial▪ Leisure▪ Hotels▪ Residential
Major real estate projects 2014 - 2020
Rabat – SaléBouregreg Valley (820 million euro):▪ Theatre▪ Residential▪ Museum▪ Marina▪ Leisure▪ Hotels▪ Commercial
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Large social housing projects
Tamansourt (near Marrakech):• 2004 - 2015• 90.000 new units• 450.000 inhabitants• Total costs: 39.5 billion dh
Tamesna (near Rabat):• 2004 – 2020• 50.000 new units• 250.000 inhabitants• Total costs: 23 billion dh
Sahel Lakhyayta (near Casablanca):• 58.000 units• 300.000 inhabitants• Total costs: 25 billion dh
Chrafat (near Tanger):▪ 2009 - 2016▪ 30.000 units▪ 150.000 inhabitants▪ Total costs: 24 billion dh
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Thank you for your attention
MEYS Emerging Markets Research
E-mail: [email protected]: www.meys.eu