dfw outlook 4 09
DESCRIPTION
Presented at the Prudential Texas Properties Awards ceremony on April 17th, 2009 by Dr. Lyssa Jenkins from the Dallas Chamber of Commerce.TRANSCRIPT
Economic ProfileApril 2009
DALLAS REGIONAL CHAMBER
Perfect Storm
Housing Markets
Financial Markets
Choked Economy
Pol
icy
Mis
step
s Global Im
pactsHousehold Wealth
Consumption
Production
Employment
45
50
55
60
65
06 07 08 Current
Household Net Worth($ trillions)
Stocks -$14
Housing -$5
Other +$1
-700-600-500-400-300-200-100
0100200300 Monthly Employment Change
(1,000s)S&P Case Shiller
National Home Values -26.5 %
Q1 2006 Peak to Q4 2008 Trough
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economy.com, S&P Case Shiller Index
States of Recession
Economy.com
The Recession Comes to Texas
Over the three months ending in December, the
Texas Leading Index experienced its
sharpest decline since its inception in January
1981. All eight of the indicators gave negative
signals… Texas likely entered a recession
sometime in the second half of 2008.
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasRegional Economic Update
February 2009
Nation, State, Region
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2009
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%12-Month Employment Change
DFW Texas US
The national economy sets the trend for the state of Texas and DFW.
Current ConditionsGeography Data Item Latest Available ChangeNational Conditions
Real GDP ($US billions) $14,200 (4Q 2008) -6.3% annualized
Employment (thousands) 133,019 (3/09)4,795 # 12 mos.
3.5% % 12 mos.
Unemployment Rate 8.5% (3/09) 5.1% 3/08 rate
Industrial Production 97.4 (3/09) -12.7% % 12 mos.
Retail Sales ($US millions) $344,380 (3/09) -9.4% % 12 mos.
State of Texas
Employment (thousands) 10,529 (2/09)-62.6 # 12 mos.
-neg% % 12 mos.
Unemployment Rate 6.5% (2/09) 4.5% 2/08 rate
DFW Metro(Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Employment (thousands) 2,934 (2/09)-31.5 # 12 mos.
-1.1% % 12 mos.
Unemployment Rates 6.9% (2/09) 4.4% 2/08 rate
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Economy.com, Texas Workforce Commission
Employment Forecast
Year 2008 2009 20102009 2010
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
U.S. -0.4 -3.7 -0.3 -5.9 -4.7 -2.7 -0.7 0.0 0.1
Texas 2.1 -1.7 0.6 -4.3 -4.0 -1.3 0.5 1.0 1.0
Annualized % ChangeEconomy.com, 4/15/09
The Texas Difference
HousingEnergyExportsDefense
Population&
Wealth: Creation v Losses
Key Sectors
The outlook for most U.S. regions in 2009 is grim; employment will fall in all 50 states this year, and no area of the country will escape recession. Next year will look better, as much of the South and West see a return to moderate growth. Tech-producing areas will help lead the way. Centers of international trade and regional distribution and logistics should also stabilize as consumer demand and industrial production begin to rebound.
Economy.com4/15/09
GLOBAL DFW
Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) is one of the spikes in the global economy, claiming the 12th largest metro economy in the world. DFW posts a gross metro product exceeding $300 billion, supported by a local workforce of three million and more than six million residents.
Logistics & Trade
Technology
Advanced Services
DFW FOOTPRINTS
Rank Metro Name Nation Population
1 Tokyo Japan 35,676,000
2 New York USA 19,040,000
3 Mumbai India 18,978,000
4 Sao Paulo Brazil 18,845,000
5 Shanghai China 14,987,000
6 Los Angeles USA 12,500,000
7 Paris France 9,904,000
8 Seoul South Korea 9,796,000
9 Chicago USA 8,990,000
10 London United Kingdom 8,567,000
11 Hong Kong China-SD 7,206,000
12 Miami USA 5,585,000
13 Toronto Canada 5,213,000
14 DFW USA 4,798,000
15 Atlanta USA 4,506,000
16 Houston USA 4,459,000
17 Singapore Singapore 4,436,000
18 Melbourne Australia 3,728,000
19 Monterrey Mexico 3,712,000
20 Frankfurt Germany 2,517,600 21 Amsterdam Netherlands 1,031,000
UN 2007 POPULATION ESTIMATESB
ench
mark
Metr
os
DFW RANKINGS
Indicator Rank
Office Costs ($/workstation) 2
Ease of Doing Business 2-tie
Cost of Doing Business 3
Economic Stability 6-tie
Business Taxes (TTR) 7-tie
DFW Business Climate DetailPREVIEW
Don’t panic.
Do not bet against the U.S. economy.
Never underestimate Texas.