dg!agri! citrusexpertwg 6november2014 agrumi - freshfel.pdf · country 2011 (jan-aug) 2012...
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DG AGRI Citrus Expert WG 6 November 2014
Philippe Binard
Freshfel Europe
Southern Hemisphere Export season 2014
Argen&na
• Season influenced by – Severe frost impac&ng produc&on
• Lemons : 650.000 T in 2014 ( 1.150.000 T in 2015 ) • Oranges : 600.000 T ( 1.000.000 T ) • SoE citrus : 260.000 T ( 500.000 T) • Grapefruit : 60.000 T ( 100.000 )
– Economic situa&on ( internal costs, delays in tax refunds to exporters,…)
South Africa • Season influenced by :
– CBS & introduc&on on a new RMS – Citrus remain the main fruit category exported by SA ( 58% or 1.140.000 T ) – Oranges
• Declined in the EU by 14% to 420.000T, similar to 2011 as well as for for Russia. • compensated by increase to Asia ( navel + 44% and valencia + 18% for a total export of 118.000 T)
• M-‐E being stable at 245.000 T
– Lemons : record volume exported ( +22% to all des&na&ons at 200.000 T ) but +29% to the EU at 2,7 million cartons
– SoE citrus : total export up by 17% ( +2% in the EU, down to Russia and up in Asia , M-‐E and USA )
– Grapefruit : down by 16 % , including to the EU ( -‐20%)
Other Southern Hemisphere • Peru :
– on-‐going increased of soE citrus ( satsumas ,murco]) while minoeolas are decreasing
– expected lower produc&on in 2015 due to alternate crop ? • Uruguay :
– total export 113.000 T( ca 35.000 T to the EU), – opening of the US market, – good outlook in Russia and Brazil
Country 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y
South Africa 316.229 332.878 371.569 312.037 -16% -8% Argentina 200.458 192.847 206.685 107.186 -48% -46% Peru 36.106 40.310 42.232 43.798 4% 11% Uruguay 45.006 39.711 43.140 33.238 -23% -22% Brazil 50.835 50.503 56.412 62.805 11% 19% Chile 2.476 3.410 3.858 1.934 -50% -40% Australia 62 250 166 442 166% 177% Total 651.172 659.910 724.061 561.440 -22% -17%
0
50.000
100.000
150.000
200.000
250.000
300.000
350.000
400.000
South Africa
Argen&na Peru Uruguay Brazil Chile Australia
Export of citrus from SH to EU (Jan -‐Aug)
2011
2012
2013
2014
EU28 import volume of fresh sweet oranges from SH Jan-Aug Exporter 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y
South Africa 147.312 180.596 192.922 140.776 -27% -19% Argentina 36.209 27.668 26.348 17.047 -35% -43% Uruguay 19.365 14.350 21.632 12.205 -44% -34% Brazil 8.786 3.782 9.796 6.771 -31% -9% Peru 3.315 1.755 4.994 4.153 -17% 24% Chile 98 750 85 50 -41% -84% Australia 62 246 1 44 4320% -57% TOTAL 215.148 229.147 255.778 181.047 -29% -22%
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
South Africa Argen&na Uruguay Brazil Peru
Export of SH oranges to the EU
2011
2012
2013
2014
EU28 import volume of soft citrus from SH Jan-Aug Exporter 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y South Africa 50.401 54.767 63.414 65.856 4% 17% Peru 32.521 38.223 36.899 39.472 7% 10% Uruguay 19.627 16.603 14.149 14.126 0% -16% Argentina 27.333 20.632 13.133 11.034 -16% -46% Australia 3 165 398 141% 609% Chile 734 215 530 234 -56% -53% New Zealand 11 4 4 6 69% 2% Brazil 102 238 112 0 -100% -100% TOTAL 130.728 130.685 128.405 131.126 2% 1%
0
10.000
20.000
30.000
40.000
50.000
60.000
70.000
2011 2012 2013 2014
SoN citrus export from SH to the EU
South Africa
Peru
Uruguay
Argen&na
SA moderate increase to the EU compared to total
export
EU28 import volume of lemons and limes from SH Jan-Aug Exporter 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y Argentina 128.960 143.085 166.147 79.047 -52% -46% Brazil 42.049 46.721 46.616 56.033 20% 24% South Africa 32.360 28.017 21.281 29.486 39% 8% Uruguay 6.014 8.758 7.359 6.908 -6% -6% Chile 1.627 2.292 3.138 1.586 -49% -33% Peru 269 333 339 173 -49% -45% TOTAL 211.280 229.206 244.879 173.232 -29% -24%
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Export of lemons/limes to the EU
Argen&na
Brazil
South Africa
Uruguay
Argen&na total export 2014 = 152.000 T
EU28 import volume of grapefruit from SH Jan-Aug Exporter 2011 (Jan-Aug) 2012 (Jan-Aug) 2013 (Jan-Aug) 2014 (Jan-Aug) 2014/2013 2014/A3Y South Africa 86.155 69.499 93.952 75.919 -19% -9% Chile 18 152 105 64 -39% -30% Argentina 7.956 1.463 1.057 59 -94% -98% TOTAL 94.129 71.114 95.115 76.042 -20% -12%
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000 90.000 100.000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Grapefruit -‐ South Africa
Northern Hemisphere Outlook on producRon
2014-‐2015
Northern Hemisphere ( MED+USA )
Total citrus production Med+ USA expected to decline by 4% reaching 28,7 million T
Northern Hemisphere ( MED+USA )
Oranges 61%
SoN citrus 22%
Lemons 11%
Grapefruits 6%
Citrus categories in %
Categories Mio T var YAGO Oranges 17,3 -5% Soft citrus 6,3 -1% Lemons 3,4 -5% Grapefruits 1,7 -6% Total 28,7 -4%
Northern Hemisphere ( MED+USA )
-‐10 %
-‐3 % +2%
Northern Hemisphere ( MED+USA )
• Some punctual difference on data Freshfel –CLAM given different &me of collec&ng data or some varia&on of sources
• Common difficul&es in 2014 for several non EU countries : Egypt , Morroco , but also uncertain&es in regard to Turkey
Northern Hemisphere (MED+USA)
early start 2,7% less -‐ all except grapefruit Good size and quality
Decrease to last year , blood or. ( -‐40 to 60 %) navel ( -‐20 to 30 %) lemons / soE citrus by 20 to 30%
Reduce navel/navelina Larger size. less clemen&ne more nova /ortanique
Lemon = clear mandora = uncertain
Northern Hemisphere ( MED+USA )
Precosity 2 weeks Delay in forecast Good in North
Drought in South
20% up Heavy fruit set /thining
Grapefruit down Low disease
Early start Unclear data
Mixed messages
????????????
Northern Hemisphere ( MED+USA )
Greening Oranges+ 3% at 108 moi box
Grapefruit down by 4% at 30 mio
Stable produc&on
Oranges & grapefruit
Drought Navel up 3% & Valencia -‐9%
Clemen&nes +10% Lemons stable
Citrus season 2014/2015 in perspecRve of Russian ban
Russia F&V trade Comments : • Unprecedented situation : the second largest importer of F&V is suspending its main supplier • In the country affected by the embargo, the EU is the only one in the top 10
Russia F&V trade
1.000.000 T
100.000-‐130.000 T
Russia trade in F&V
0,00
50.000,00
100.000,00
150.000,00
200.000,00
250.000,00
300.000,00
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Export to Russia per month in T (2013)
Delegated RegulaRon 1031/2014 max 96.090 T for citrus
181.800 76.895 48.300 96.090
AlternaRve markets
The « solidarity » principle (the embargo countries):
– USA : SPS ( current EU export 110.000 T ) – Canada : SPS ( current EU export 38.000 T ) – Japan : SPS ( current EU export 8.000 T ) – Australia : SPS ( current EU export 8.000 T ) – (Norway): no major problem ( current EU export 300.000 T )
Fruit and vegetable exports from selected markets to Russia in T Fruit Fruit Vegetables Vegetables Total F&V Total F&V
Exporter 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 United States 18.051 28.326 1.762 665 19.813 28.992 Australia 2.240 3.355 14 28 2.255 3.383 Japan 30 44 33 128 63 173 Canada 464 90 210 28 674 118 Norway 20 30 0 50 TOTAL in T 20.786 31.836 2.019 880 22.805 32.716 VALUE in USD 29.888.057 43.263.407 1.061.677 654.588 30.949.734 43.917.995
No or very limited impact on trade flow to RU for these countries, 32.000 T v. EU 2,2 million T
AlternaRve markets The « main beneficiaries» principles:
– Northern Hemisphere • Turkey : du&es and TBT ( current EU export 12.000 T ) • Egypt : TBT ( current EU export 60.000 T ) • Israel :SPS and quotas (( current EU export 25.000 T ) • Morrocco : wait and see new FTA ( ( current EU export 30.000 T ) • China : SPS ( current EU export 16.000 T) • Serbia : ( current EU export 120.000 T)
Fruit and vegetable exports from selected markets to Russia in T Fruit Fruit Vegetables Vegetables Total F&V Total F&V
Exporter 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 Turkey 617.253 676.652 454.566 412.496 1.071.819 1.089.147 China 351.937 312.526 302.220 333.637 654.158 646.163 Egypt 143.230 253.780 28.616 78.064 171.846 331.845 Israel 57.748 66.240 141.648 193.275 199.396 259.516 Morocco 263.332 60.355 323.687 0 TOTAL in T 1.433.500 1.309.199 987.405 1.017.472 2.420.905 2.326.671 VALUE in USD 2.249.747 1.941.746 1.520.244 1.622.449 3.769.991 3.564.195
Should export grow to RU from these countries , it might open opportunities for EU
Thank you for your attention!!!