diagnostic reasoning and diagnostic error across the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Diagnostic Reasoning and
Diagnostic Error Across the
Curriculum:When to teach/learn it?
Where to teach/learn it?
How to teach it?
Michael Giuliano MD, MEd, MHPE
Assistant Dean for Resident Development
SUNY Downstate
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Objectives:
• List the common models of Diagnostic Reasoning
• Identify the common patterns of diagnostic error
• Identify methods and places to teach/learn Dx reasoning and error across the curriculum
• Improve your auto repair skills
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So you went out to your car
this morning and it didn’t start
What's wrong?
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Questions
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Context, Knowledge and
Experience all Matter
• Old or new?
• Who’s been driving?
• This ever happen before?
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Three Brothers Work at the Local
Garage
• Tim (Old and experienced)
• Pat (Middle-career and smart with lots of
knowledge from school)
• Brendan (Just getting started)
The Context:
Matthew, my college student son, is home from school and was using my new car last night. It didn’t start this morning….
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• Matt – “Tim, the car won’t start.”
• Tim – “Matt, does your father know?”
• Matt – “No, Tom, I didn’t want to tell
him and get in trouble”
• Tim – “You ran out of gas, again?”
• Matt – “I didn’t look at the gas gauge,
I’ll be right back. . .”
• Matt – “Uhh… it’s on empty.”
• Tim – “I’ll be right over with a gallon.”
• Matt – “Don’t tell my dad.”
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• Matt – “Pat, the car won’t start.”
• Pat – “Matt, when you turn the key, does it crank or make no noise?
• Matt – “Pat, why did you ask me that?”
• Pat – “It’s simple, if it cranks it’s a fuel or air problem, and if it doesn’t it’s an electrical problem.”
• Matt – “It cranks when I turn the key.”
• Pat – “Then it must be your out of gas, the fuel line is blocked, or the air
intake is blocked. A few simple tests will solve the problem.”
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• Matt – “Brendan, the car won’t start.”
• Brendan – “O boy, it could be a lot
of things including: •No gas
•Too much gas
•Bad gas
•Blocked gas
•Blocked air intake
•Dead battery
•Disconnected battery
•Shorted ignition system
•Failed spark plugs
•Failed compression
•Starter isn’t grounded
•Solenoid
•Broken engine wires
•A short in the wires
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• Matt – “Boy, this sounds expensive.”
• Brendan – “Don’t worry, Matt, it’s
complicated but it might not be expensive.”
• Matt – “Can you fix it before my dad gets home?”
• Brendan – “I’ll send someone over with a tow truck and we’ll run a bunch of tests and figure it out.”
• Matt – “Thanks, Brendan. Call me as soon as you know”
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Models for Problem Solving
• Tim
– Two seconds to solve problem and $6.50 for a can of gas
• Pat
– Two minutes to solve problem and $65.00 for time and effort
• Brendan
– Two hours to solve problem and $200.00 for the tow, $200.00 for labor, and $6.50 for gas
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Role Play Patients: presenting with
acute onset chest pain
• Joe Six Pack is 53, overweight, couch potato,
smokes and loves to watch baseball -just came
in by ambulance at 6pm
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Also presenting with acute chest
pain
• Lean Larry is 28 and
runs 5 miles per day,
balanced diet, just
walked over from the
gym after lifting this
am.
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Ambiguity
Uncertainty
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What is clinical judgment?
• “The exercise of reasoning under uncertainty when caring for patients.”
• It combines scientific theory, personal experience, patient perspectives, and other factors.( context)
• It is NOT based solely on evidence and it is not just arbitrary
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Cognitive Psychology
• This is the basic science that examines
how people…
– Reason
– Make decisions
– Make errors
• … in predictable and repeated patterns.
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Models for Clinical Problem Solving
• Hypothesis/Deductive reasoning
– Epidemiology
– Anatomy
– Pathophysiology
– “Badness”
• Heuristics (short cuts)
– Pattern recognition
– Algorithmic thinking
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Models for Clinical Problem Solving
• Hypothesis/deductive reasoning– Generate an organized list of possible causes for a
problem
– Common things occur commonly
– Simple, single explanations are usually right (Ockham’s Razor)
– Hypothesis should come from the data, not from what you think the data should be
– Hypothesis should be consistent with known pathophysiology
– Never fall in love with a hypothesis
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Hypothesis/deductive Reasoning
Model
• Try to use the common list
to start
• Try not to leave out the
things you NEVER want to
miss ( treatable diseases
with bad consequences if
you don’t Dx them)
• Common/bad/everything
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Everything Differential for Neonatal Seizures
Metabolic
Hypoxic-ischemia
Hypoxia
Hypoglycemia
Hypocalcemia
Hypoglycemia
Intrauterine growth retardation
Infant of a diabetic mother
Glycogen storage disease
Galactosemia
Idiopathic
Hypocalcemia
Hypomagnesemia
Infant of a diabetic mother
Neonatal hypoparathyroidism
Maternal hypoparathyroidism
High phosphate load
Other electrolyte imbalances
Hypernatremia
Hyponatremia
Cerebrovascular Lesions
Cerebral infarction
Ischemic versus hemorrhagic
Cortical vein thrombosis
Trauma
Subarachnoid hemorrhage
Intracranial hemorrhage
Subdural/epidural hematoma
Intraventricular hemorrhage
Infections
Bacterial meningitis
Viral-induced encephalitis
Congenital infections
Herpes
Cytomegalovirus
Toxoplasmosis
Syphilis
Coxsackie meningoencephalitis
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)
Brain Abscess
Brain Anomalies
Drug Withdrawal or Toxins
Prenatal substance: methadone , heroin,
barbiturate, cocaine, etc
Prescribed medications: propoxyphene, isoniazid
Local anesthetics
Bilirubin
Hypertensive Encephalopathy
Amino-acid Metabolism
Branched-chain amino acidopathies
Urea-cycle abnormalities
Nonketotic hyperglycinemia
Ketotic hyperglycinemia
Familial Seizures
Neurocutaneous syndromes
Tuberous sclerosis
Incontinentia pigmenti
Autosomal dominant neonatal seizures
Selected Genetic Syndrome
Zellweger’s syndrome
Neonatal adrenal leukodystrophy
Smith-Lemli-Opitiz syndrome
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Common Diff Dx for Neonatal
Seizures
• Hypoxic Ischemic injury
• Hypoglycemia (SGA, LGA)
• Trauma
• Drug withdrawal
Bad but rare:
meningitis
bleeding
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Models for Clinical Problem Solving
• Heuristics
– Shortcuts used by or created by experts to
speed up the problem solving process
– Two common types of heuristics include
• Pattern recognition
• Algorithmic thinking
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What do you see?
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Happy Newborn in well baby with
Petechiae:
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Algorithmic Thinking
Neonatal Thrombocytopenia
Maternal Plts normal Maternal plts very low Maternal plts moderately low
Alloimmune
thrombocytopenia
Immune thrombocytopenia
Gestational thrombocytopenia
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Heuristics
• Shortcuts often used
by experts
• Faster and easier
• Prone to error when
used by the
inexperienced and
sometimes the
experienced
• VERY context specific
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Heuristics Used By Experts
• “One becomes an expert by making
routine many aspects of a problem which
require creative problem solving by a
novice” ~Anderson JR
• “An expert is not solving problems, but
remembering solutions” ~Norman GR
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System 1 and System 2 Model
System 1 System 2
Intuitive analytic
Fast slow
Heuristic Systematic
Automatic Conscious
High error Lower error
Low EBM Higher EBM
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Evaluation of Knowledge Structures
and Problem Solving Style
• Reduced
• Dispersed
• Elaborated causal
• Scheme
• Scripted
• Guess
• Hypothetical/deductive
• Hypothetical/deductive
• Scheme inductive
reasoning
• Pattern recognition
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Scuba Diving Story:
Easy to learn, easy to die
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Diagnostic Error in Medicine
• Delayed, incorrect or missed diagnosis
which affects patient outcome or leads to
additional complications/procedures
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Literature on Diagnostic Error
Suggests…
• ER literature notes 25% of patients
affected by a “diagnostic error”
• Autopsy studies over the past 30 years
reveal a constant 10% rate of significant
“surprises”
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Sources of Individual Diagnostic
Error
• Intellectual factors
– Lack of knowledge
– Overconfidence in knowledge
– Bias
• Failure to check for errors
– Reluctance to change initial
opinion
– Lack of detailed follow up
– Inadequate peer review with
propagation or errors
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Sources of Team/System
Diagnostic Error
• Systems based errors
– Complex care settings
– Many steps in patient
care
– Many healthcare
providers
– Many systems
interacting to deliver
care
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Why did I miss the diagnosis?
• It never crossed my mind
• I paid too much attention to one finding,
especially a lab result
• I didn’t listen enough to the patients story
• I was in too much of a hurry
• I didn’t know enough about the disease
Bordage. Academic Medicine 1999, 74: s138-143
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Why did I miss the diagnosis?
• I let the consultant convince me
• I didn’t reassess the situation
• The patient had too many problems at once
• I was influenced by a similar case
• I failed to convince the patient to investigate further
• I was in denial of an upsetting diagnosis
Bordage. Academic Medicine 1999, 74: s138-143
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Error Analysis
• Didn’t consider the
diagnostic entity - 26%
• Premature closure on
the wrong dx – 24%
• Misinterpretation of a
diagnostic test – 20%
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100 Cases of Diagnostic Error in
Internal Medicine
• No fault-7%
• Systems related- 65% (teamwork and
communication)
• Cognitive- 74% ( faulty synthesis, premature
closure)
• Average case had 5.9 errors
Graber M, Franklin N, Gordon R. Diagnostic Error in Internal Medicine. Arch
Intern Med. 2005;165: 1493-1499.
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Cognitive Errors in Diagnosis:
Croskerry Classification
• Cognitive Dispositions to Respond (CDR’s)
which result from:
failure in perception
failed heuristics
biases
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Cognitive Dispositions to Respond
(CDR)
• Aggregate bias- group data doesn’t apply
to MY patient, they are special
• Anchoring-locking on to a salient feature of the
patient’s initial presentation too early
• Ascertainment bias-thinking is shaped by prior
experience. (stereotyping Lean Larry)
• Availability-what comes to mind is most likely
(everybody has mitochondrial disease)
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CDRs…continued
• Base-rate neglect-ignoring the TRUE prevalence
of a disease
• Confirmation bias-once you “have” the diagnosis
you look for confirming evidence rather than look
for disconfirming evidence
• Diagnosis momentum-labels tend to stick you
asthmatic you
• Fundamental attribution error-the tendency to
blame the patient for their illness (Joe six-pack)
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CDRs
• Overconfidence bias- we think we know more than we do and so we tend to act on incomplete information and we of course “know” we are right
• Premature closure-tendency to stop the diagnostic process early, and accepting a Dx before it has been “fully” verified
• Representative error-if it looks like a duck, walks and quacks like one then IT is one. Beware of the wolves in duck clothing.
• Search satisfying-you call off the search once something is found
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Note to Medical Educators
from Pat Croskerry
1. Appreciate the full impact of diagnostic errors in medicine and the contribution of cognitive errors
2. Refute the inevitability of cognitive errors
3. Dismiss the pessimism that surrounds approaches for lessening cognitive bias
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Where Does This Fit Across the
Curriculum?
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Diagnostic Reasoning and
Diagnostic Error Across the
Curriculum
• When to teach/learn it? Early and often
• Where to teach/learn it? In any setting where clinical cases are involved
• How to teach it? Intro early in 1st year with workshop and in all PBL, CBL and clinical teaching using modeling and reflection
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Cognitive Debiasing Strategies
• Develop insight/awareness of CDRs
• Develop the “What else might this be?” habit
• Metacognition-think about thinking
• Decrease reliance on memory (Isabel, clinical
practice guidelines, algorithms)
• Simulation
• Make task easier-more information and time
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Cognitive Debiasing Strategies
• Cognitive forcing strategies in specific
settings to avoid predicted bias
• Accountability
• Feedback so errors are appreciated,
understood and corrected
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Simple Questions in Preventing
Diagnostic Error? Groopman Rx
• What else could it be? Stops premature closure
• Is there anything that doesn’t fit? Mitigatesconfirmation bias
• Is it possible there is more than one problem?Search satisfaction never sets in
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Educational Strategies to Promote
Clinical Diagnostic Reasoning
• Early clinical experience
• Data acquisition and reporting-focused?
• Articulating problem representations-
• Generation of hypothesis-developing
illness script
• Cognitive feedback
•Bowen JL. Educational strategies to Promote Clinical Diagnostic Reasoning. N Eng J Med.
2006;355:2217-25.
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How Do You Become a Better
Clinical Problem Solver?
• Errors are common, don’t hide from them, learn from them
• Ambiguity and uncertainty are unavoidable, get used to it
• Always ask “How is this test going to change the post test probability of the diagnosis?”
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Errors are
common, don’t
hide from them
Learn
from
them
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Pitfalls to Avoid
• Hypothesis/deductive reasoning– Generate an organized list of possible causes for a
problem (anchoring error)
– Common things occur commonly (availability error)
– Simple, single explanations are usually right or Ockham’s Razor (search satisfaction)
– Hypothesis should come from the data, not from what you think the data should be (confirmation bias)
– Hypothesis should be consistent with known pathophysiology
– Never fall in love with a hypothesis (prematureclosure)
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Specific Ideas to Help You Become
Better Problem Solvers
• Keep an open mind (i.e. don’t fix on one
possibility)
• Listen to the patient. Did you hear what I
said? Listen to the patient. They usually
have the answer.
• Utilize “pocket brains” to help in the
construction of differentials (common, bad)
• Slow down, this isn’t a race
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Specific Ideas to Help You Become
Better Problem Solvers
• Stay stupid- always question your tentative
diagnosis
• Heuristics are useful but dangerous, use
with caution (representative error)
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The Medical Culture surrounding
Error?
• Hide and forget
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We Need a culture that Stops and
Smells the Errors
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If We Don’t Measure It How Will
We Know We Improved It?
Assessing Critical Thinking Skills will be
critical as an outcome measure:
When to measure?
How to measure?
Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal
California Critical Thinking Skills Test
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Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking
Appraisal (WGCTA-FS)
• 40 item test that looks at 5 subscales
• Inference
• Recognition of Assumptions
• Deduction
• Interpretation
• Evaluation of Arguments
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California Critical Thinking Disposition
Inventory (willing)
Health Sciences Reasoning Test (able)
• Commercial tests used in nursing and now in ~20 medical schools
• Tests willingness to think critically
• And ability to think critically
• Has been used to measure improvement in reasoning after workshops
• Has shown PBL is better than lecture for improving critical thinking
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The Ten Commandments for
minimizing ERROR
Not yet approved by the Supreme Court for use in public…
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Ten Commandments for Minimizing
Error:
1. I shall not believe everything I hear from
the Doctor
2. I shall first listen to the patient
3. I shall not fall in love with my first Dx
4. I shall not believe everything I hear about
test results
5. I shall explain my thinking to everyone
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Ten Commandments…
6. I shall involve the patient in everything
7. I shall communicate with peers precisely
8. I shall take personal responsibility for the
patients clinical problem
9. I shall not believe everything the consults
say.
10. I shall say “I DON’T KNOW” regularly
and go get the answer
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Acknowledgments
• George Bordage
• Arthur Elstein
• Tim, Pat, and Brendan O’Shannahan
• Geoffrey Norman
• Pat Croskerry
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References
• Elstein AS, Shulman LS, Sprafka SA. Medical Problem Solving: An Analysis of Clinical Reasoning . Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1978.
• Elstein AS. Heuristics and biases: selected errors in clinical reasoning. Acad Med. 1999;74:791-4
• Bordage G, Lemieux M. Semantic structures and diagnostic thinking of experts and novices. Acad Med. 1991;66(9 suppl):S70-S72
• Norman GR. The epistemology of clinical reasoning: perspectives from philosophy, psychology, and neuroscience. Acad Med. 2000;75(10 suppl):S127-S133
• Elstein AS. Clinical problem solving and decision psychology: comment on “The Epistemology of Clinical Reasoning”. Acad Med. 2000;75(10 suppl):S134-S136
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References• Bowen JL. Educational strategies to Promote Clinical Diagnostic Reasoning.
N Eng J Med. 2006;355:2217-25.
• Norman G. Building on Experience-The Development of Clinical Reasoning. N Engl J Med. 2006;355:2251-52.
• Croskerry P. The Importance of Cognitive Errors in Diagnosis and Strategies to Minimize Them. Acad Med. 2003;78:775-780.
• Bordage G. Why Did I Miss the Diagnosis? Cognitive Explanations and Educational implications. Acad Med. 1999;74:s138-s142.
• Graber M, Gordon R, Franklin N. Reducing Diagnostic Errors in Medicine: What’s the Goal? Acad. Med. 2002;77:981-992
• Graber M, Franklin N, Gordon R. Diagnostic Error in Internal Medicine. Arch Intern Med. 2005;165: 1493-1499.
• Croskerry P, Norman G. Overconfidence in Clinical decision Making. Am J Med.2008;121:s24-s29.
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