7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

1/9

1

The DIF: Designing for lasting impact that goes to scale

Rainer Arnhold Fellows design iteration format (DIF)

August 2011

This is a design tool to give you the best shot at real impact that will go to scale. The basicapproach is this: identify exactly what impact you want, lay out what behavior must happen

to get it, formulate the interventions that will drive the behavior, and organize the whole

thing into a systematic impact model that can scale up. The result of the process your

model in the DIF provides a vehicle for easier ongoing iteration and evolution of your idea

and your model.

There are three parts to the DIF:

Part one: sketch the basic model (steps 1-7)

Part two: flesh out the model (steps 8-10)

Part three: a few more things to think about (steps 11-13)

There is a separate worksheet template (attached) to make it easier to use this format.

The best way to use this is to:

Read through the whole thing quickly Do part one dont move on until youve got a completed version that you like.

Run it by someone familiar with the DIF if you can.

Flesh out your model in part two to the degree that is useful to you and that allowsenough flexibility to easily make changes too much detail and youll be over-

committed, too little and you wont capture what really is distinctive and innovative.

Look over part three and use whats helpful. Dont worry about completing itunless its useful to you and/or it provides material for a helpful discussion

Well illustrate the DIF process with the fictional work of a guy well call Fred. Follow him as

he staggers through the process:

Example DIF: Fred throws nets out of a plane

Imagine this: our flight delayed, we meet a guy named Fred in the airport bar in Kampala.

Hes a garrulous guy in his late 50s, made a bunch of money in his 40s and wants to give

back. Fred was pilot in the Vietnam War and still flies a lot. He caught the Africa bug on a

safari trip, and his adored grandchildren have left him obsessed with the well-being of

children.

Fred says hes started a project in a remote part of southwest Uganda. We braceourselves. Im throwing mosquito nets out of a plane! We sigh. Fred can see we think

hes nuts, so he starts telling us about the Poverty Action Lab study demonstrating that free

distribution of nets is the best way to get kids under them, and how his analysis of the area

showed him that lots of people are out of reach of government services or even roads. We

perk up. Just then the loudspeaker announces that well be in the bar for four more hours,

so we persuade Fred to be a guinea pig and go through the DIF.

7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

2/9

2

Part one: the basic model

1. MissionDecide on and say exactly what youre trying to accomplish with your big idea. This is

what everything you do will be designed toward. Capture it in eight words or less, and

include a verb, a specific target population or setting, and a big outcome that implies

something to measure:

Get African one-acre farmers out of poverty Prevent HIV infection in Brazil Save coral reefs in the South Pacific

2. Big ideaThis is about your central, distinctive idea about how to create lasting impact at scale - the

idea at the core of all you do, that you use to create change for the better (some people

might call this your theory of change). To formulate the big idea you need to know two

things: how youll change behavior, and how that can go to scale. Get your idea down to asentence that captures your special sauce. Keep working it until you really like it. Be aware

that it may change after youve gone through all the way through part 1.

Design, market and sell money-making products that farmers can afford and willuse

Eradicate devastating invasive species from islands so that endemic species andecosystems can recover

Use existing community groups to provide poor farmers with the integrateddelivery of farm education, credit and access to cash buyers they need to make a

decent living

Freds Big Idea

Throwing nets out of a plane: get kids under mosquito nets by

delivering insecticide-impregnated bednets in high-malaria

regions that cant be reached by road. Going to scale: via

governments.

Freds mission

Fred knows that children are the ones most at-risk of dying from

malaria, and that anything that benefits children will alsobenefits adults. So, he formulates his mission as:

Prevent childhood malaria in remote regions of Uganda

7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

3/9

3

3. ImpactIdentify the single best indicator an outcome, not a behavior - that you would measure to

know if youre fulfilling the mission. This is critical: it defines what youre designing for:

Increase in farm income

Decrease in HIV infection rates Biological indicators of coral health

4. Behavior mappingImpact comes from action, from someone doing something differently. What do you wantpeople to do differently to create that impact? What are the end-user behaviors that will

directly lead to the impact youre looking for? Design for impact is focused on behavior

how to drive it and maintain the behavior(s) that create impact.

To start, put down the most critical behavior change that must happen for impact.

Farmers adopt new set of farming practices Teenagers practice safe sex Island communities guard reefs and maintain sustainable fishing levels

Behaviors that directly create impact dont happen in isolation, though -getting to impact

requires a connected sequence of behaviors. To make sure that impact really happens,

youve got to connect the dots and run through all the behaviors necessary for impact.

List them in sequenceas a simple flow diagram ofwho must do whatall the way toimpact. Start with your key behavior and use it as the starting point for a list. It may be

that not everything fits into a chain of sequential behavior, so just list any additional

behaviors off to the side thats why we call it a map.

Freds most critical behavior

kids sleep under mosquito nets

Fred's behavior map

someone picks up the net

someone takes it to a house with children

caregivers hang and use it right

kids sleep under mosquito net

malaria rates

Freds impact

Decreased malaria rates in children under five

7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

4/9

4

5. InterventionsLook at your list of behaviors. Figure out which ones would happen without you and take

them off the list. Of those that remain, put down in brief - what youre going to do to

make them happen. These are yourinterventions.

This is the list of the things you have to do theactivities that you must craft into a scalable model.

Bear in mind that changing behavior is hard, and

that ideas that require you to change more than 3-

5 behaviors are going to be pretty complicated

i.e not very replicable to implement.

This is the step that often sends people scurrying

back to do more research as it becomes clear that

they didnt think about some aspect of behavior

change or dont yet know the state of the art.

One useful tool: try looking at each necessary

behavior in terms of conditions and incentives: are

the conditions in place such that the behavior can

happen, and are the incentives there so that it will

happen? This is a systematic way of checking that

the intervention is sufficient and it often suggest

way of adding or modifying interventions.

6. Route to scaleA big idea is only a big idea in the context of how it will eventually scale up. If you dont

design your model with the route to scale in mind, it probably wont happen. If you think

about it, there are five ways to take impact to scale:

1. By growing a really big organization2. Via the market3. Via governments4. By co-opting other NGOs5. Viral spread of behavior

Pick the one that best captures how your idea will lead to impact at scalein the long run. It

might take you an intermediate step or two, but identify what route will get you to a million that is a really useful frame of reference. See Part 3.A for more detail.

Freds interventions

Uh oh. Fred now realizes that isnt certain that

any of those behaviors will happen if all he does is

throw nets from a plane. He makes a desperate

stab at some ideas:

someone picks up the net:

Initial mapping process, notification persocial marketing campaign, bright

packaging and well targeted drops to

ensure visibility

someone takes it to a house with children:

well-designed social marketing, targeteddrops, saturation excess nets til marketis saturated

caregivers hang and use it right:

social marketing campaign, effectiveinstructions in packaging

kids sleep under it:

social marketing campaign

Freds path to scale: Via government:

Heres Freds thinking: "We will build an organization big enough to cover a substantial part of

Uganda, then leverage the results into policy change and an effective program. We will then lobby

other governments to establish similar programs and provide the technical assistance they need.

7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

5/9

5

7. Impact modelThis is a way to get you thinking systematically and a format that allows you to continually

mess with your model. Dont panic about the form; just try it. You can use a boxes-and-

arrow format, some other kind of flow diagram, or simply a list. Use a pencil and blankpaper - or post-it notes - if that works better than doing it on a computer.

The point is to arrange your activities in some sort of sequential order in a way that

describes a systematic process that goes all the way to impact. Create new boxes to fill

any gaps in the logical flow; you dont have to limit yourself to the interventions from the

previous step. Make sure there isnt anything important that you need to do that wouldnt

fit into or be represented by a box. There is no proscribed, right way to map out the

boxes and arrows; just keep fiddling with it until you have something that makes sense to

you. The result is a flow diagram of your impact model.

It may be that your process branches or goes in parallel tracks just make sure that all

branches lead to impact. More than ~12 boxes probably means youre getting too

complicated. It may be that there are essential boxes that dont really fit in a sequential

process just put them on the page alongside the connected process.

Thats it, thats part one: the big picture DIF. Youve used impact and behavior to get clear

on how your idea should be applied for maximum impact. Youve got it mapped out in a

way thats easy to change. Work through it a few times, get something you like and show

it to someone familiar with the formatbefore you go into more detail.

Map regions of low

access and high malaria

Design aerial

distribution operation

Implement

campaign

Carry out aerial

distribution

Do random-sample

survey of the region

Fill in distribution

gaps

Source and package

nets

Design social

marketing

campaign

Freds impact model in boxes and arrows

7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

6/9

6

Some of Freds detail

Design social marketing campaign

Start by assessing local media what is in place already. Attempt

to get an ethnographic understanding of grassroots information

channels, as well as mapping social networks. Integrate all available

channels into a cost-effective campaign.

Part two: flesh out the model

8. Detail

The devil is of course in the details. Once youve sketched your impact model to capture a

replicable process, provide the details that bring each step to life. Write a brief narrative

that captures what is distinctive and necessary for each step. Imagine that youre trying to

describe what you do to someone interested in doing it for herself.

9. Additional detail

It may that youll want additional detail in the form of sub points to capture whats essential.

Dont add more than are needed to ensure that everything essential to a successful

process finds a place in your model.

10. Scalability Audit

If you did all the stuff above, you now have a reasonably fleshed-out model. The Scalability

Audit is a systematic reassessment of that model per the five Mulago scalability criteria, and

its one the most important elements of this design process. These are the criteria:

1. Real Impact? Behavior chain: does your model ensure that the dots are connected all the way

to impact?

How will you measure impact1 - can you sketch out a good-enough approachthat includes the right indicator, quality numbers, and attribution?

1See the two pager on Mulagos approach to impact on the Rainer Fellows website

(http://rainerfellows.org/other_stuff_to_read/Mulago-impact.pdf) if you need further elucidation of this stuff.

A little bit more detail on Freds social marketing campaign

Assessment of local mediao Grassroots observational surveyo Consultation with media outlets, esp. radio

7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

7/9

7

2. Cost effective? Can you see a way to measure/calculate the cost per impact? Do have the numbers to make any kind of intelligent projection? Looking at the most expensive parts of your model, is there anything you can

strip away?

3. Lasting behavior? Look at the conditions and incentives in play for the key behaviors you address

in your model can you make the case that they will last?

4. Replicable? Is the model systematic and simple enough that someone else could do it? Could it be adapted to a wide array of settings and still reach your target

population

5. The right route to scale? Does your model fit your chosen way to scale or more to the point, is it

specifically designed for it?

Use each of these questions as tools to go back and poke at your model. The most useful

way to do this is to write out your answer to each imagine that youre trying to persuadea skeptic that youve got each covered, then be that skeptic. Fiddle with the parts as you

need to; let the process reverberate all the way up to your big idea. Remember, the

scalable model is the nucleus of all your work. Its worth as many trips back to the drawing

board as it takes.

Part three: going deeper

11. A deeper route to scale

With your model in mind, revisit how it will scale up. Remember, this is about how your

modelwill create impact at scale, and not necessarily how your organization will scale. Here

again are the five possibilities we talked about under Big Idea:

a. By growing a really big organization Upside: high degree of control over implementation and quality Downside: huge and ultimately limiting - fundraising and management

commitment

Best where quality of execution complex models is paramountb. Via the market

Upside: essentially limitless potential infrastructure and capital Downside: relatively few interventions that benefit the very poor or the

common good have sufficient potential for profit

Best whenever someone can make money off key parts of the model withoutgetting you off mission

c. Via governments Upside: leverages policy and infrastructure

7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

8/9

8

Downside: corruption, instability, and inability to implement complexinterventions

Best for the delivery of pulic goods via simple, bombproof interventions atbig scale

d. By co-opting other NGOs Upside: lots of them, leverages existing subsidies Downside: NGOs dont often adopt or do a good job of implementing

interventions developed by others

e. Viral spread of behavior Upside: zero ongoing expenditure Downside: there are very few models that exemplify this and there is no way

to control quality

Best whenever you can get it; rarely happensWhen we first talked about the way to take impact to scale, it was about identifying the

ultimate vehicle for scale what will do the heavy lifting at the scale of millions. What we

mean by scale depends on context the size of the problem and The Path to Scale is a

brief description of how youll get there from where you are now. Sometimes that pathrequires sequential or even simultaneous combination of the various ways to scale. Put

together a sentence or two that describes your current thinking:

Via a really big organization: were going to build an organization that can deliverservices to an ever-larger population, while building a fundraising juggernaut

Via the market: we will use donor money to prove a business model, grow itthrough self-generated expansion capital, then create infrastructure to assist others

to use and adopt our business model.

Co-opting other NGOs: We will build an organization big and visible enough toallow us to form effective partnerships and get others to implement our model.

12. Stage of Organization

The stage describes where you are on your path to scale, and it implies a lot about the kind

of organization you need to deliver your model at this stage and move on to the next. Here

are the usual stages things need to go through pick the one you think youre in:

Idea: constructing a starting-point model, looking at failures and best practices todate. Not much on the ground yet

R&D pilot: work on the ground at a scale that allows you to sort out just what yourmodel is and how it really works

Proof-of-concept pilot: youve got a replicable model; now you see if it creates thebehavior and impact you thought it would

Limited expansion: you expand operations to a size that allows you to work out thekinks prior to scaling up

Scale-up: dramatic expansion of impact, via your chosen path to regional, national,international, and, eventually, galactic scale

Fred's stage:

Fred has done several experimental drops and has a plane and some

people on the ground hes in R&D now

7/27/2019 DIF 08-11

9/9

9

13. Financial model

This is about the money how youre going to finance the organization and its work. The

financial models design is driven by these four fundamental questions: 1) what will

maximize impact for the target population over time, 2) whether your impact model

includes a revenue stream and 3) what is your intended path to scale, and 4) given 1, 2,and 3, what is the best source of capital (or, conversely, given the sources of capital, what

structure makes the most sense for you)? Here are your choices:

Pure non-profit: no internal revenue stream, fully subsidized by philanthropy Non-profit hybrid: some kind of revenue stream within the impact model, but still

subsidized. Types of subsidy include:

o Start-up onlyo Start-up + expansion onlyo Start-up + expansion + ongoing operations

For profit: Two kinds o Market rates of return, using conventional, mainstream capitalo Sub-market rates of return, using social capital, patient capital or some

other source of financing (debt or equity that for whatever reason does not

seek to maximize financial return).

Sometimes it makes sense to create a functional hybrid with two organizations, one for-

profit and the other non-profit (we take a dim view of these, in most case too complicated

and too many pitfalls).

Another way to help sort out the for-profit vs. not-for-profit question is to look at the various

kinds of financing out there and imagine with designation will give you access to the most

of the right kind of capital. There are essentially three big buckets of money:

1. Philanthropy and grants2. Earned revenue3. Loans: above and below market rate4. Equity: high and low expectation

Not-for-profits can use 1, 2, or 3; for-profits can use 2, 3 or 4. its worth keeping in mind

that most high-social-impact businesses that target the poor are relatively low margin and

unlikely to attract serious equity investment. In any case, what should guide your choice of

financing and hence structure is this:

What kind of captial will lead to maximum impact for my target population in the most

timely fashion?

********************

There, youre done. If youve looped back around and fiddled with the pieces to the point

where what youve got feels right, youre ready to take it for a test drive in the real world.

The DIF is structured so that tweaks are easy and iteration painless. Come back, revisit,

and reiterate in a few months.

OK, have at it - the world is waiting.