Digital EconomyDigital Economy

P1 - HardwareP1 - Hardware

P. BakowskiP. Bakowski

bako@ieee.org

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

Electronic technologies, ..Electronic technologies, ..

Optical technologies, ..Optical technologies, ..

Electro-magneticElectro-magnetic technologies, .. technologies, ..

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19471947: First electronic programmable : First electronic programmable computer (ENIAC)computer (ENIAC)

17,468 vacuum tubes17,468 vacuum tubes, 7,200 crystal diodes, , 7,200 crystal diodes, 1,500 relays, 70,000 resistors, 10,000 capacitors 1,500 relays, 70,000 resistors, 10,000 capacitors 27 tons 27 tons 8.5 feet (2.6 m) by 3 feet (0.9 m) by 80 feet (26 m)8.5 feet (2.6 m) by 3 feet (0.9 m) by 80 feet (26 m) 680 square feet (67.6 m²) 680 square feet (67.6 m²) 150 kW of power150 kW of power IBM card reader and card punch IBM card reader and card punch

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19471947: First : First electronicelectronic programmable computer (ENIAC)programmable computer (ENIAC)

MTBF – 6 minMTBF – 6 min

Mean Time Between FailuresMean Time Between Failures - - is the predicted is the predicted elapsed time between inherent failures of a elapsed time between inherent failures of a system during operation. system during operation. MTBF can be calculated as the arithmetic mean MTBF can be calculated as the arithmetic mean (average) time between failures of a system(average) time between failures of a system

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19471947: First electronic programmable : First electronic programmable computer (ENIAC)computer (ENIAC)

nownow 2mm*2mm 2mm*2mm1 W,1 W,MTBF - yearsMTBF - years

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19481948: Invention of transistor: Invention of transistorby William Shockleyby William Shockley

awarded the 1956 Nobel Prize in Physicsawarded the 1956 Nobel Prize in Physics

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19481948: Invention of transistor: Invention of transistor

an an amplifieramplifier (analogue) (analogue)

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19481948: Invention of transistor: Invention of transistor

an amplifier (analogue) an amplifier (analogue)

an electrically controlled an electrically controlled switch switch (digital)(digital)

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

1958 (pat 1961):1958 (pat 1961): : Invention of Invention of integrated integrated circuit Jack Kilbycircuit Jack Kilby

Nobel Prize - 2000Nobel Prize - 2000

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19681968:: Idea of MicroprocessorMicroprocessor

The idea of The idea of Ted Hoff who Ted Hoff who was employee number 12 at was employee number 12 at IntelIntel

19711971: : RealizationRealization Intel 4004Intel 4004

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

The original 4004 was a silicon-The original 4004 was a silicon-based chip measuring based chip measuring 1/8th of 1/8th of an inch long by 1/16than inch long by 1/16th of an of an inch wide, containing either inch wide, containing either 2,108 transistors 2,108 transistors

1 inch = 25.4 mm1 inch = 25.4 mm

What was it’s What was it’s surface in mmsurface in mm22

0.7 MHz clock0.7 MHz clock

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

1969 (SRAM): 1969 (SRAM):

static random access memory static random access memory (SRAM) (SRAM) 6 transistors/bit6 transistors/bit

64 bit : 8 bytes64 bit : 8 bytes

decoderdecoder

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

1970 (DRAM):1970 (DRAM):

dynamic random access memory (DRAM) dynamic random access memory (DRAM) capacitors to store the bits (1 capacitors to store the bits (1 transistor/bit)transistor/bit)

1024 bit : 128 bytes1024 bit : 128 bytes

decoderdecoder

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19198484 EEPROMEEPROM : : Flash Flash MemoriesMemories

floating-gate transistorfloating-gate transistor - "cell" - "cell"

electrically programmable/erasableelectrically programmable/erasable

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The driving factorsThe driving factors Toshiba 1989Toshiba 1989: NAND flash are accessed like : NAND flash are accessed like

block devices such as hard disks or memory block devices such as hard disks or memory cards. cards.

Each block consists of a number of Each block consists of a number of words words and and pagespages. The pages are typically or 2,048 or . The pages are typically or 2,048 or 4,096 bytes in size. 4,096 bytes in size.

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The driving factorsThe driving factors19198787:: FPGA, …FPGA, …

configurationconfiguration

New way of prototyping and implementationNew way of prototyping and implementation

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

1952-19701952-1970:: Optical Fibre, ..Fibre, ..

high data rates (Terabit/s)high data rates (Terabit/s)

long distance (10-200 Km)long distance (10-200 Km)

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The driving factorsThe driving factors1950-19701950-1970:: laser laser LLight ight AAmplification by mplification by SStimulated timulated EEmission of mission of RRadiationadiation

• low-divergence beamlow-divergence beam• well-defined wavelength (i.e., monochromatic)well-defined wavelength (i.e., monochromatic)

First rubyFirst rubylaserlaser

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The driving factorsThe driving factors1970-19901970-1990:: Laser diodes (semiconductor), ..Laser diodes (semiconductor), ..

injection laser diodesinjection laser diodes

pumped laser diodespumped laser diodes

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

1987:1987: Optical amplifiers, ..Optical amplifiers, ..

a laser without an optical cavity (erbium a laser without an optical cavity (erbium doped)doped)

stimulated emission - amplification of incoming stimulated emission - amplification of incoming lightlight

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The driving factorsThe driving factors

19701970:: Hard Disks, ..Hard Disks, ..

non-volatilenon-volatile storage device storage device fixed mediafixed media magnetic surfacesmagnetic surfaces

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The Moore’s LawThe Moore’s Law

19651965 : Moore's LawMoore's Law

Number of transistorsNumber of transistors is increasing exponentially, is increasing exponentially, doubling approximately every two yearsdoubling approximately every two years

Moore's Law derivatives (apply to many Moore's Law derivatives (apply to many parameters): parameters):

processing speedprocessing speed memory capacity memory capacity computing power/cost computing power/cost resolution of digital camerasresolution of digital cameras ....

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The Moore’s LawThe Moore’s Law

The observation was first made by Intel co-The observation was first made by Intel co-founder Gordon E. Moore in a 1965 paper.founder Gordon E. Moore in a 1965 paper.

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The Moore’s LawThe Moore’s Law

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Processing power Processing power Computing power per unit cost.Computing power per unit cost. "bang per buck" - "bang per buck" - doubles every 24 monthsdoubles every 24 months

GFLOP/sGFLOP/s

GPUGPU

CPUCPU

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Storage capacity Storage capacity Hard disk storage cost per unit of information (B) Hard disk storage cost per unit of information (B) follows Kryder's Lawfollows Kryder's Law

disk capacitydisk capacityin GBin GB

19801980 20102010

10001000

0.0010.001

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Transmission capacity Transmission capacity

25 Tb/s25 Tb/s

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Transmission capacity Transmission capacity

The dashed line is an exponential fit with a The dashed line is an exponential fit with a doubling time of 20 monthsdoubling time of 20 months and the solid line and the solid line represents the nominal bandwidth limit of 25 represents the nominal bandwidth limit of 25 Tb/s.Tb/s.

This limit is based on a low cost window from This limit is based on a low cost window from 1450 to 1650 nm and a spectral efficiency of 1 1450 to 1650 nm and a spectral efficiency of 1 b/s/Hz.b/s/Hz.

Note that the doubling time is shorter than the Note that the doubling time is shorter than the doubling timedoubling time for the transistor count (24 for the transistor count (24 months)months)

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Processing costs (50 years) Processing costs (50 years)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20101960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1000000$ – 1 MIPS1000000$ – 1 MIPS

1 $ – 100 MIPS1 $ – 100 MIPS

ratio : 1000000000 = 100*10ratio : 1000000000 = 100*1066

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Magnetic storage costs (50 years) Magnetic storage costs (50 years)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20101960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1000$ – 1 MB1000$ – 1 MB

1 $ – 10 GB1 $ – 10 GB

ratio : 10000000 = 10*10ratio : 10000000 = 10*1066

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Optical storage costs (30 years) Optical storage costs (30 years)

1980 1990 2000 20101980 1990 2000 2010

1$ – 1 MB1$ – 1 MB

1 $ – 100 GB1 $ – 100 GB

ratio : 100000 = 100*10ratio : 100000 = 100*1033

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Telecommunication costsTelecommunication costs

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20101960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

10 $ - 60s*64Kb/s (480 KB)10 $ - 60s*64Kb/s (480 KB)

1 $ – 4000 *60*64Kb/s (19.2 GB)1 $ – 4000 *60*64Kb/s (19.2 GB)

ratio : 40000 (for a transatlantic line)ratio : 40000 (for a transatlantic line)

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Pure silicon foundriesPure silicon foundriesintegrated circuit : pure foundriesintegrated circuit : pure foundries

TaiwanTaiwan

SingaporSingaporee

ChinaChina

South South KoreaKorea

GermanyGermany

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Optical disk productionOptical disk production

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Fabless companiesFabless companies

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ARM business model (2006)ARM business model (2006) ARM's 2006 annual report:ARM's 2006 annual report: royalties $164.1 million royalties $164.1 million shipping 2.45 billion units shipping 2.45 billion units

ARM's licensing revenues 119.5 million, ARM's licensing revenues 119.5 million, 65 processor licenses 65 processor licenses

What is royalty per What is royalty per ARM chip ?ARM chip ?

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MIPS business model and ChinaMIPS business model and China

China's Institute of Computing Technology (ICT)China's Institute of Computing Technology (ICT) buys in July 2009 MIPS32 and MIPS64 architecture licenseesJuly 2009 MIPS32 and MIPS64 architecture licensees

China has independently designed Godson and China has independently designed Godson and Loongson MIPS-compatible processorsLoongson MIPS-compatible processors

Godson-3 has Godson-3 has x86 compatibility mode x86 compatibility mode !!

4 and 8 core versions4 and 8 core versions

by 2010 China plans to build a by 2010 China plans to build a peta-floppeta-flop computer based computer based on Godson-3on Godson-3

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Global IC sales Global IC sales

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INTEL R&D IndiaINTEL R&D India• Intel's Intel's Xeon 7400Xeon 7400 design took place in India design took place in India (2008). (2008).

front-end design, front-end design, pre-silicon logic validation, pre-silicon logic validation, back-end designback-end design

This is the first This is the first complete 45nm complete 45nm designdesign outside the USA outside the USA

In 1995 Andrew Grove said In 1995 Andrew Grove said « We do not need American « We do not need American engineers any more »engineers any more »BangaloreBangalore

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INTEL R&D IndiaINTEL R&D India Intel's India contributed to designs for the Intel's India contributed to designs for the Napa, Santa Rosa and Montevina mobile platforms, Napa, Santa Rosa and Montevina mobile platforms, quad-core Intel Xeon 5300, quad-core Intel Xeon 5300, design and validation of Core2 Extreme quad-coredesign and validation of Core2 Extreme quad-core

Intel India employs about Intel India employs about 2500 engineers2500 engineers (2008) (2008)

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INTEL R&D ChinaINTEL R&D China

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INTEL R&D PolandINTEL R&D Poland

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SummarySummary

Driving technologies and inventionsDriving technologies and inventions

The Moore' Law The Moore' Law

Processing, storage and communication costsProcessing, storage and communication costs

Production and economyProduction and economy