digital is eating the world… · 3 is the growth trade over? s&p 500® growth vs. value 0.0...
TRANSCRIPT
Digital is Eating the World Seeking Companies on the Correct Side of the Divide
Doug Rao
Portfolio Manager
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Dematerialization
Use of third party names, marks or logos is purely for illustrative purposes and does not imply any association between any third party and Janus Henderson Investors,
nor any endorsement or recommendation by or of any third party. Unless stated otherwise, trademarks are the exclusive property of their respective owners.
Using less to produce more
3
Is the Growth Trade Over? S&P 500® growth vs. value
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Gro
wth
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S&P 500 Growth Index
S&P 500 Value IndexGrowth Value
2009 31.6% 21.2%
2010 15.0% 15.1%
2011 4.7% -0.5%
2012 14.6% 17.7%
2013 32.8% 32.0%
2014 14.9% 12.4%
2015 5.5% -3.1%
2016 6.9% 17.4%
2017 27.4% 15.4%
Calendar Year Returns 80% Cumulative
Outperformance ®
Source: Morningstar, Inc., as of 12/31/17.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. S&P 500® Growth Index reflects the performance of U.S. large cap growth equities. S&P 500® Value Index reflects the performance of U.S. large cap value equities. Index performance
does not reflect the expenses of managing a portfolio as an index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment.
®
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Will it Continue?
“The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty – a fad.” President of the Michigan Savings Bank in 1903, advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company
In periods of disruption, past is not prologue
Piccadilly Circus, London Piccadilly Circus, London
c. 1912 c. 1900
The opinions are as of 6/22/18 and are subject to change without notice. Janus Henderson may have a business relationship with certain entities discussed. The comments should not be construed as a recommendation of individual
holdings or market sectors, but as an illustration of broader themes. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value.
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Moore’s Law
In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that chip capacity, i.e., the number of transistors on a chip, would double every 18-24
months. This prediction has proven more or less accurate over the past 53 years …despite repeated calls for its demise.
“Incredible shrinking transistor nears its
ultimate limit: The laws of physics.”
New York Times
“The End of Moore’s Law? The
current economic boom is likely due
to increases in computing speed and
decreases in price. Now there are
good reasons to think that the
party may be ending.”
MIT Technology Review
“The End of Moore’s Law. Given the state of today’s
technology, chips can only get so small.”
Slate Magazine
“After a glorious 50 years, Moore’s Law
is running out of steam.”
The Economist
2016 2005 2000 1997
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Moore’s Law
1 1 2
3 4
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12
13 14 15 16
?
?
“As legend has it, when chess was invented
in sixth century India, the inventor was given
an audience with the emperor. When asked
to name his reward, the inventor said he
would like just one grain of rice for the
first square of the chessboard, and
double that number for each succeeding
square…”
Chess Example
Source: http://www.michiganfuture.org/01/2017/chessboards-and-rice/
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Moore’s Law
At square 32, how many grains of rice does the emperor owe the inventor?
?
4.3 billion grains of rice!
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Moore’s Law
On square 64, the last square on the chess board, how many grains of rice
does the emperor owe the inventor?
?
18,446,744,073,709,600,000
Eighteen quintrillion grains of rice!
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Moore’s Law
1
1 grain of rice.
0.2 inches long. 1965
~2018
13.6 thousand miles of rice.
Enough rice to stretch halfway
around the world!
58 trillion miles of rice.
Enough rice to wrap around the
world 2.3 billion times.
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Growth in Mobile Devices
Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.” - Marty Cooper, inventor of cellular telephone in 1981
Mobile phone subscriptions
have grown at ~23%
Compound Annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) while
population has grown at a
1.3% CAGR
Global Population vs. Mobile Phone Subscriptions
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
Bill
ions
Global Mobile Phone Subscriptions
Global Population Mobile Cellular Subscriptions
“
Source: World Bank, as of December 2016.
0
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E-commerce Penetration Still Low
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Total Sales Share of Total Retail Commerce
Sale
s in B
illio
ns Mark
et S
hare
Growth in U.S. Retail E-commerce
Source: Statista, estimates as of 12/31/17.
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Retail Consumers Preferring Online Convenience
Fortune Amazon (AMZN) vs. Walmart (WMT) Nike Reviews Distribution Strategy
“Nike held firm year after year when Amazon
executives returned to Beaverton…while the
meetings were friendly, Nike was clear. It had no
plans to add the online retail giant as a
distribution partner.”
Nike CEO June 2017 December 2017
“Nike
confirms it
will sell
directly on
Amazon.”
“We’re
extending our
pilot with
Amazon…it’s
going well.”
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Y0 Y5 Y10 Y15
Bill
ions (
$U
SD
)
Amazon - $223B
Walmart -
$131B
First 20 years of
growth for WMT and
AMZN after each hit
$1B in sales
AMZN has shown faster growth and higher margins than WMT … And is close to catching WMT on a total
sales basis
0
3
6
9
12Projected
Total Revenue
Revenue as a % of total U.S. retail sales
Walmart
Amazon
%
Source: Cowen and Company, Janus Henderson Research as of December 2017.
Note: 1.) $131B in 1998 is worth ~$196B today. 2.) Using Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) for AMZN.
As of 6/30/18, Janus Henderson Forty Fund holdings include: Amazon.com Inc 6.62%, Nike Inc 2.63%, and Walmart 0.00%. Holdings are subject to change.
Fortune
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Cash & Check Being Disintermediated
Conversion
of Cash
1
Expanding
Access
3
Shift to
Digital
2
PCE Growth
4
o Cash and check
replacement
o Growth in digital
o New form
factors
o New acceptance points
o Internet of Things
o Commercial
o Geographic expansion
Spend is Shifting from Physical to Digital
9% 15%
91% 85%
2016 2020E
Total Global Retail Spend
Digital
Physical
CAGR
20%
Source: Visa, as of 12/31/17.
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Payments in China Going mobile at light speed
Mobile Payments ($ Trillion) Homeless in
China
accept mobile
payment
Tithe in China
with mobile
payment
Starbucks launches
mobile payments in
the U.S. 2011
2016
SBUX launches
mobile payments in
China in December
2017 Mobile accounts for
20% of all
payments in the U.S.
Mobile accounts
for 40% of all
payments in China
Mobile Payments Starbucks (SBUX) & Mobile
0
2
4
6
8
$10T
2012 2014 2015 2016 2013
China
USA
Source: Wall Street Journal, Starbucks Company Reports, Andreessen Horowitz, December 2017.
As of 6/30/18, Janus Henderson Forty Fund holdings include: Starbucks Corp 1.97%. Holdings are subject to change.
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Rise of Online Travel Bookings
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Online Travel Booking Penetration Rate
Revenue in B
illio
ns
Mark
et S
hare
Growth in Online Travel Penetration
Source: Statista, estimates as of December 2017.
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Advertising, Shift from Print to Digital Internet eats print ads: Google & Facebook eat digital
Global Advertising Revenue
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Print Google Facebook Other Internet
Revenue in B
illio
ns (
$)
$171
-$90
$155
$87
$19
-$150
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
Total Print Google Facebook OtherInternet
Change in Dollars (1999-2021E)
Bill
ions
Source: Magna Global as of June 2017, Projected 2017-2021. As of 6/30/18, Janus Henderson Forty Fund holdings include: Facebook Inc 3.75%. Holdings are subject to change.
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eSports Overtake Traditional Sports
20.3M
22.5M
25.4M
27M
32.5M
36M
111.9M
0 50 100 150
ABC NBA Finals (2016)
NBC Sunday Football (2015 Avg)
NBC Rio Olympics (2016 Avg)
Twitch ESL Cologne (2015)
CBS Thanksgiving Day (2015)
LoL World Championship (2015)
CBS Super Bowl 50 (2016)
Viewership (Millions)
79
118 115
133
326
$47
$76
$3
$38
$34
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
NHL MLB eSports NBA NFL
Unique Viewers (mm) Revenue / Viewer
Un
iqu
e V
iew
s (
Mill
ions) R
eve
nu
e p
er V
iew
er ($
)
eSports Have the Lowest Revenue per Unique Viewer… …Despite Having Comparable Viewership to Other Sports
Source: Company Reports, Barclays Research, as of 2016. Source: Twitch, Nielsen, NFL Press Release, as of 2016.
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Move to Cloud, Still Early Innings
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Total Infrastructure & Software Spend
Public Cloud Services Spend
Cloud Market Share
IT S
pe
nd (
$ B
illio
ns)
Ma
rket S
ha
re
Source: FactSet, as of 12/31/17.
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Autos, Reaching a Tipping Point Powering up demand for electric vehicles (EVs)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20
12
20
14
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16
20
18E
20
20E
20
22E
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24E
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26E
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28E
20
30E
20
32E
20
34E
20
36E
20
38E
20
40E
20
42E
20
44E
20
46E
20
48E
20
50E
Unit S
hare
of A
uto
motive S
ale
s
BEV PHEV Hybrids ICE
EVs to Grow at 15% CAGR and Amount to 60% of
Deliveries by 2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17E
20
18E
20
19E
20
20E
20
21E
20
22E
20
23E
20
24E
20
25E
Mainstream
Best in class
~$100/kWh = ICE cost parity
$/kWh
EV Battery Pack Price Forecast
Source: Alliance Bernstein as of December 2017.
BEV – Battery Electric Vehicle. PHEV – Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle. ICE – Internal Combustion Engine.
20
Declining Battery Prices Spur Demand for EVs Every time the global supply of batteries doubles, price drops 19%
$0
$250
$500
$750
$1,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Battery Price
Forecast
Battery Prices $/kWh The council’s 20-
year prediction was
proven incorrect
within 5 years.
“Over the next 20 years, we felt that a
50 percent reduction in battery costs
would take place.”
- Michael Ramage, Former U.S. Dept. of Energy
National Research Council Chair, 2009 Report
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance as of June 2017, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/15/business/15hybrid.html
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So What’s Next?
2018
22
A Transformation in Health Care?
Cost per genome
Individualized Medical Care of Tomorrow? The Operating Theater of Tomorrow?
A doctor of tomorrow?
Source: Welcome Images, Intuitive Surgical, National Human Genome Research Institute, as of July 2017.
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AI, Autonomous Driving and Blockchain
“J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Dimon May Hate Bitcoin, but He Loves Blockchain.” - WSJ, Oct. 2017
Artificial
Intelligence 1 Autonomous
Driving 2 Blockchain 3
“Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg announced he plans to
study cryptocurrencies.” - Facebook, January, 5 2018
“How blockchains could change the world.” - McKinsey,
May 2016
“J.P. Morgan’s Jamie Dimon May Hate Bitcoin, but He
Loves Blockchain.” - WSJ, Oct. 2017
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The big ideas in business are often very obvious, but it’s very hard to maintain a firm grasp of the
obvious at all times.”
- Jeff Bezos
“
25
Tech Sector Outperformance Where to now?
P/E Multiple
Performance Total Returns (December 2013 December 2017)
12/31/13 12/29/17 Change in Multiple Change in NTM EPS
Est.
S&P 500 Information
Technology Sector 88.3% 16.8x 21.3x 26.8% 48.5%
Top 1500 U.S. stocks
by cap size 48.5% 16.2x 19.0x 17.3% 26.5%
Relative (Tech – Mkt) 39.8% 9.4% 22.0%
P/E Multiple
Performance Total Returns (December 2013 December 2017)
12/31/13 12/29/17 Change in Multiple Change in NTM EPS
Est.
S&P 500 Information
Technology Sector 61.5% 19.5x 19.3x -1.0% 63.2%
Top 1500 U.S stocks
by cap size 39.8% 17.9x 18.9x 5.7% 32.2%
Relative (Tech – Mkt) 21.8% -6.8% 31.0%
Cap Weighted
Equal Weighted
Source: Alliance Bernstein, as of 12/31/17.
NTM EPS – Next Twelve Months Earnings Per Share Estimate.
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio measures share price compared to earnings per share for a stock or stocks in a portfolio.
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Durable and Competitively Advantaged Business Models
Technology
Distribution Cost
Structure
Network
Effect
Brand
Sustainable
Competitive
Advantages
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As of June 30, 2018
Characteristics – Forty Fund
Top Holdings
(28.95% of Fund) (%)
Mastercard Inc 6.23
Amazon.com Inc 6.22
Microsoft Corp 5.71
Alphabet Inc 5.70
Salesforce.com Inc 5.09
Sector Breakdown (%) Forty Fund Russell 1000®
Growth Index
Information Technology 43.16 41.55
Consumer Discretionary 15.40 17.93
Health Care 14.60 13.37
Financials 9.81 4.44
Industrials 5.79 11.87
Materials 4.76 1.80
Real Estate 3.53 2.16
Cash & Equivalents 2.95 ‒
Characteristics Forty Fund Russell 1000® Growth Index
Number of Securities 39 542
Weighted Average Market Cap $245.9B $275.7B
Median Market Cap $83.3B $12.1B
Active Share 67.16% –
Holdings are subject to change without notice. For a complete list of holdings as of the most recent publicly available disclosure period, visit janushenderson.com/info.
Sector weights based on GICS.
Active Share represents the portion of portfolio holdings that differ from an index. Active share is not an indicator of past or future performance. Higher active share may present increased risk of volatility and does not protect against loss.
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Characteristics – Forty Fund
Actual results may vary, and the information should not be considered or relied upon as a performance guarantee.
Russell 1000® Growth Index reflects the performance of U.S. large-cap equities with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. Beta measures the volatility of a security or portfolio relative to an index. Less than one
means lower volatility than the index; more than one means greater volatility. Tracking Error is the divergence between the price behavior of an investment and an index. Turnover is a measure of portfolio trading activity. Higher turnover
may indicate higher transaction costs and vice versa.
The fund is classified as “nondiversified”, meaning it has the ability to take larger positions in a smaller number of issuers than a “diversified” fund. Nondiversified funds may experience greater price volatility.
General Characteristics
Inception Date Primary Benchmark
5/1/97 Russell 1000® Growth Index
Fund Assets Peer Group Category
$12.5B (as of 6/30/18) Morningstar Large Growth
Investment Style Weight in Top Five Holdings
High-conviction large-cap growth equities 28.95% (as of 6/30/18)
Typical Investment Guidelines and Risk Parameters
Holdings Range Expected Tracking Error Range
30 – 40 300 – 700 bps
Expected Turnover Beta
20% – 40% 0.85 – 1.15
Max Position Size Liquidity
8.0% (2.5% – 3.0% core weight) Max of 20% of 10 day average daily volume
Target Market Cap Range
Up to 70% of the portfolio > $15 billion
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