digitized for fraser federal … · ... (see "alphabetical index—series finding guide")...

Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEMalcolm Baldrige, Secretary

Robert 6. Dederick, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSISGeorge Jaszi, Director

Allan H. Young, Deputy DirectorCharles A. Waite, Associate Director for

National Analysis and ProjectionsFeliks Tamm, Editor

This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the ESureau of EconomicAnalysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for th^ publication are—

Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and reviewBrian D. Kajutti—Composite indexesBetty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)

The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefullyacknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sourcesat the back of this report.

This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee con-sisting of the following persons:

Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, Bureau of Industrial Economics, U.S. Department ofCommerce

John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the TreasuryNorman Frumkin, Office of Management and BudgetRonald E. Kutscher, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of LaborJ. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Re$erve SystemAdrian W. Throop, Council of Economic AdvisersCharles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

ABOUT THIS REPORT

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) providesa monthly look at many of the economic timeseries found most useful by business analystsand forecasters.

The original BCD, which began publicationin 1961 under the title Business Cycle Develop-ments, emphasized the cyclical indicators ap-proach to the analysis of business conditionsand prospects. The report's contents were basedlargely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,and lagging indicators maintained by theNational Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase itsusefulness to analysts using other approaches tobusiness conditions analysis. Principal additionsto the report were series from the national in-come and product accounts and series based onsurveys of businessmen's and consumers' an-ticipations and intentions. The composite in-dexes were added at that time, and the report'spresent title was adopted.

The dominant feature of the current BCD isthe cyclical indicators section, in which eachbusiness cycle indicator is assigned a three-waytiming classification according to its behavior atpeaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section issupplemented by a section containing other im-portant economic measures. The method ofpresentation is explained in the introductory textwhich begins on page 1.

Most of the data contained in this reportalso are published by their source agencies. Aseries findingguide and a complete list of seriestitles and sources can be found at the back of thereport.

Cyclical Indicators are economic time serieswhich have bteen singled out as leaders, coin-ciders, or laggjsrs based on their general confor-mity to cyclical movements in aggregateeconomic activity. In this report, cyclical in-dicators are classified both by economic processand by their average timing at business cyclepeaks, ctt business cycle troughs, and at peaksand troughs combined. These indicators havebeen selected primarily on the basis of theircyclical behavior, but they also have provenuseful in forecasting, measuring, and in-terpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregateeconomic activity.

Other Economic Measures provide additional in-formation for the evaluation of current businessconditions and prospects. They include selectedcomponents of the national income and productaccounts; measures of prices, wages, andproductivity; measures of the labor force,employment, and unemployment; economicdata on Federal, State, and local government ac-tivities; measures of U.S. international transac-tions; and selected economic comparisons withmajor foreign countries.

Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic,$68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 do-mestic, $6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates areavailable on request. Address correspondence

concerning subscriptions to Superintendent ofDocuments, U.S. Government Printing Office,Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payableto Superintendeni) of Documents.


BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST

New Features and Changes for This Issue iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATIONSeasonal Adjustments 1MCD Moving Averages 1Reference Turning Dates 1Part I. Cyclical Indicators 1Part II. Other Important Economic Measures 4How To Read Charts 5How To Locate a Series 5Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 6

ItCII

JANUARY 1983Data Through DecemberVolume 23, Number 1

"AT

•X4'

PART I.CYCLICAL INDICATORS

COMPOSITE INDEXES ANDTHEIR COMPONENTS Chart Table

Composite Indexes 10 60Leading Index Components 12 —Coincident Index Components 14 —Lagging Index Components 15 —

CYCLICAL INDICATORSBY ECONOMIC PROCESSEmploymentand Unemployment 16 61Production and Income 19 63Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries 21 64Fixed Capital Investment 23 65Inventories and Inventory Investment 26 68Prices, Costs, and Profits 28 69Money and Credit 31 71

DIFFUSION INDEXESAND RATES OFCHANGEDiffusion Indexes 36 74Selected Diffusion Index Components — 77Rates of Change 39 —

Bl"

B4"HB5'

B7"

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The Secretary of Commerce has determined for printing this periodical has been approvedthat the publication of this periodical is neces- by the Director of the Office of Managementsary in the transaction of the public business and Budget through April 1, 1985.required by law of this Department. Use of funds


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PART II.OTHER IMPORTANTECONOMIC MEASURES

NATIONAL INCOMEAND PRODUCT ChartGNP and Personal Income 40Personal Consumption Expenditures , 41Gross Private Domestic Investment 42Government Purchases of Goods and Services . . . 43Foreign Trade 44National Income and Its Components 45Saving 46Shares of GNP and National Income 47

PRICES, WAGES,AND PRODUCTIVITYPrice Movements 48Wages and Productivity j 49

A2

~A4"

ECA7

1STB2

LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,AND UNEMPLOYMENTCivilian Labor Force and Major Components 51

GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIESReceipts and Expenditures , . 52Defense Indicators , . 53

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONSMerchandise Trade ; . . 56Goods and Services Movements 57

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONSIndustrial Production . 58Consumer Prices 59Stock Prices 59

Table8080818182828283

8487

89

9090

9293

949596

PART III, APPENDIXESA. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)

QCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue}B. Current Adjustment Factors (October 1982 issue)C. Historical Data for Selected Series 97D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions * 103F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators . . . . ; 104G. Experimental Data and Analyses , 105Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide , . 110Titles and Sources of Series , 114


Readers are invited to submit comments andsuggestions concerning this publication.Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, StatisticalIndicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230

NEW FEATURES

AND CHANGES

FOR THIS ISSUE

Revised current and historical data for the compositeindexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicatorsare scheduled to be shown in the February 1983 issueof BCD. Changes in some of the component series in-cluded in the leading and lagging indexes will be in-troduced. In addition, statistical revisions of thecomponent series in all of the indexes will be incor-porated. These changes are the result of recommenda-tions of the BCD Technical (Advisory) Committee and acomprehensive review of the indexes by the Bureau ofEconomic Analysis.

Changes in this issue are as follows:

1. The series on employment and unemployment in thecivilian labor force (series 37, 42-44, 60, 90, 91, 441, 442,444-448, and 451-453) have been revised for the period 1978to date. These revisions reflect the application of updatedseasonal adjustment factors by the source agency.

Further information concerning these revisions may beobtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of LaborStatistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics,Division of Employment and Unemployment Analysis.

2. The average weekly insured unemployment rate (series45) has been revised for the period 1978 to date to reflectthe application of updated seasonal adjustment factors by thesource agency.

Further information concerning this revision may beobtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment andTraining Administration, Office of Financial Control andManagement Systems.

3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 11,77, 97, 604, 606, 614, 616, 721-723, 725-728, 965, and theseries shown on page 105.

4. Appendix G contains recession comparisons for series21, 29, 30, 47, 50, 90, 910, and 920.

A limited number of

changes are made from

time to time to in-

corporate recent find-

ings of economic

research, newly avail-

able time series, and

revisions made by

source agencies in

concept, composition,

comparability, coverage,

seasonal adjustment

methods, benchmark

data, etc. Changes may

result in revisions of

data, additions or

deletions of series,

changes in placement of

series in relation to

other series, changes

in composition of

indexes, etc.

The February issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduledfor release on March 4.


1983 U.S.INDUSTRIALOUTLOOK

READYAn annual review andforecast for 250 industrieswith projections to 1987.

A useful reference in planning and forecasting for your business; an aid to judging your company'sperformance and progress, and its potential.

The 580-page book is an inexpensive and convenient compilation of historical data, currenttrends, near-term and long-term prospects, rates of growth, and other measures of industrialexpansion.

Special articles in the 1983 edition analyze the effect on certain industries of increased defensespending; summarize the forecasts for the manufacturing sector; and examine economicperformance of U.S. industries for 1973 to 1981.

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METHOD OF PRESENTATION

This report is organized into two major parts.Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 timeseries which have been found to conform well tobroad fluctuations in comprehensive measures ofeconomic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these areindividual indicators, the rest are related analyticalmeasures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,and rates of change. Part I I , Other ImportantEconomic Measures, covers over 140 series whichare valuable to business analysts and forecastersbut which do not conform well enough to businesscycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are afew exceptions: Four series which are included inpart I are also shown in part II to complete thesystematic presentation of certain sets of data,such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largestsection of part II consists of quarterly series fromthe national income and product accounts; othersections rolate to prices, labor force, governmentand defense-related activities, and internationaltransactions and comparisons.

The two parts are further divided into sections(see table of contents), and each of these sectionsis described briefly in this introduction. Data areshown both in charts and in tables. Most chartsbegin with 1956, but those for the compositeindexes and their components (part 1, section A)begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panelformat which covers only the period since 1971.Except for section F in part I I , charts containshading which indicates periods of recession ingeneral business activity. The tables contain datafor only the last few years. The historical data forthe various time series are contained in the 1977Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

In addition to the charts and tables describedabove, each issue contains a summary table whichshows the current behavior of many of the series.Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,measures of variability, specific cycle turningdates, cyclical comparison charts, and otherinformation of analytical interest. An index appearsat the back of each issue. It should be noted thatthe series numbers used are for identificationpurposes only and do not reflect preciserelationships or order. However, all seriesconsidered as cyclical indicators are numbered inthe range 1 to 199.

Seasonal Adjustments

Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuationsare often necessary to bring out the underlyingtrends of time series. Such adjustments allow forthe effects of repetitive intrayear variationsresulting primarily from normal differences inweather conditions and from various institutionalarrangements. Variations attributable to holidaysare usually accounted for by the seasonaladjustment process; however, a separate holiday

adjustment is occasionally required for holidayswith variable dates, such as Easter. An additionaladjustment is sometimes necessary for serieswhich contain considerable variation due to thenumber of working or trading days in each month.As used in this report, the term "seasonaladjustment" includes trading-day and holidayadjustments where they have been made.

Most of the series in this report are presented inseasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, theseare the official figures released by the sourceagencies. However, for the special purposes of thisreport, a number of series not ordinarily publishedin seasonally adjusted form are shown here on aseasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages

Month-to-month changes in a series are oftendominated by erratic movements. MCD (months forcyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro-priate span over which to observe cyclicalmovements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)It is the smallest span of months for which theaverage change in the cyclical factor is greater thanthat in the irregular factor. The more erratic aseries is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages ofthe period equal to MCD) tend to have about thesame degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5will show its cyclical movements about as clearlyas the seasonally adjusted data for a series with anMCD of 1.

The charts in this report generally includecentered MCD moving averages for those serieswith an MCD greater than 4. The seasonallyadjusted data are also plotted to indicate theirvariation about the moving averages and to provideobservations for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates

The historical business cycle turning dates usedin this report are those designated by the NationalBureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). Theymark the approximate dates when, according toNBER, aggregate economic activity reached itscyclical high or low levels. As a matter of generalpractice, neither new reference turning dates northe shading for recessions will be entered on thecharts until after both the new reference peak andthe new reference trough bounding the shaded areahave been designated.

The historical reference turning dates are subjectto periodic review by NBER and on occasion arechanged as a result of revisions in importanteconomic time series. The dates shown in thispublication for the 1948-1970 time period are thosedetermined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER hasdesignated turning points for the 1973-1975 reces-sion and the 1980 recession.

Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Business cycles have been defined as sequencesof expansion and contraction in various economicprocesses that show up as major fluctuations in ag-gregate economic activity—that is, in com-prehensive measures of production, employment,income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,business cycles of historical experience have beendefinitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly induration and intensity, reflecting changes ineconomic systems, conditions, policies, andoutside disturbances.

One of the techniques developed in businesscycle research and widely used as a tool for analyz-ing current economic conditions and prospects isthe cyclical indicators approach. This approachidentifies certain economic time series as tendingto lead, coincide with or lag behind the broadmovements in aggregate economic activity. Suchindicators have been selected and analyzed byNBER in a series of studies published between1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a newcomprehensive review of cyclical indicators wascarried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER researchstaff. The present format and content of part I ofBCD are based on the results of that study.

Section A. Composite Indexes andTheir Components

All cyclical indicators have been evaluated ac-cording to six major characteristics: Economicsignificance, statistical adequacy, consistency oftiming at business cycle peaks and troughs,conformity to business expansions andcontractions, smoothness, and prompt availability(currency). A formal, detailed weighting schemewas developed and used to assess each series by allof the above criteria. (See articles in the May andNovember 1975 issues of BCD.) The resultingscores relate to cyclical behavior of the seriesduring the period 1947-70. This analysis produceda new list of indicators classified by economicprocess and typical timing at business cycle peaksand troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text belowrelating to section B.)

This information, particularly the scores relatingto consistency of timing, served as a basis for theselection of series to be included in the compositeindexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoringseries from many different economic-processgroups and combine those with similar timingbehavior, using their overall performance scores asweights. Because they use series of historicallytested usefulness and given timing characteristics(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),with diversified economic coverage and a minimumof duplication, composite indexes give morereliable signals over time than do any of theindividual indicators. Furthermore, much of the

1Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical TimingA. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks

N. Economic\Process

Cycl ica l lyTiming \ .

LEADING (L)INDICATORS(62 series)

ROUGHLYCOINCIDENT(C)INDICATORS(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg)INDICATORS(18 series)

TIMINGUNCLASSIFIED

8 series)

EMPLOYMENTANDUNEMPLOY-MENT(18 series)

Marginalemploymentadjustments(6 series)

Job vacancies(2 series)

Comprehensiveemployment( I series)

Comprehensiveunemployment(3 series)

Comprehensiveemployment(1 series)

Duration ofunemployment(2 series)


I I .PRODUCTIONANDINCOME(10 series)

Capacityutilization(2 series)

Comprehensiveoutput andreal Income(4 series)

Industrialproduction(4 series)

III.CONSUMPTION,TRADE,ORDERS, ANDDELIVERIES(13 series)

New andunfliied ordersand deliveries(6 series)

Consumption(2 series)

Consumptionand trade(4 series)

Trade(1 series)

IV.FIXEDCAPITALINVESTMENT(18 series)

Formation ofbusinessenterprises(2 series)

BusinessInvestmentcommitments(5 series)

Residentialconstruction(3 series)

Backlog ofInvestmentcommitments(1 series)

BusinessInvestmentexpenditures(5 series)

BusinessInvestmentexpenditures(1 series)

Businessinvestmentcommitments(1 series)

V.INVENTORIESANDINVENTORYINVESTMENT(9 series)

InventoryInvestment(4 series)

Inventories onhand and onorder(1 series)


VI.PRICES. COSTS,AND PROFITS(17 series)

Stock prit**(1 wrlas)

Commodityprices(1 sertet)

Profits andprofitmargin*(7 sarkas)

Cash flows(2 s*rt«*>

U nit labor costsand labor shar»(4 series)

CornmodKyprices(1 sarlOB)

Profit share[1 9«rle$)

VII .MONEYAND CREDIT(26 series)

m

B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs

N^ Economic\Process

Cycl ical^Timing N.

LEADING (L)INDICATORS(47 series)

ROUGHLYCOINCIDENT(C)INDICATORS(23 series)

LAGGING (Lg) !INDICATORS !(40 series) |

TIMINGUNCLASSIFIED(U)(1 series)

EMPLOYMENTANDUNEMPL.OY-MENT(18 series)

Marginalemploymentadjustments(? series)

Marginalemploymentadjustments(2 series)


Marginalemploymentadjustments(1 series}

Job vacancies(2 series)


Comprehensiveand durationofunemployment(5 series)

II.PRODUCTIONANDINCOME(10 series)


Comprehensiveoutput andreal income(4 series)


Capacityutilization(2 series)

CONSUMPTION,TRADE,ORDERS, ANDDELIVERIES(13 series)

New and unfilledorders anddeliveries(5 series)



Unfilled orders(1 series)

IV.FIXEDCAPITALINVESTMENT(18 series)

Formation ofbusinessenterprises(2 series)

Businessinvestmentcommitments(4 series)

Residentialconstruction(3 series)

Su sin essinvestmentcommitments(1 series)

BusinessInvestmentcommitments(2 series)

Businessinvestmentexpenditures(6 series)

V.INVENTORIESANDINVENTORYINVESTMENT(9 series)

InventoryInvestment(4 series)


VI.PRICES, COSTS,AND PROFITS(17 series)

Stock prices(1 series)

Commodityprices(2 s*rtos)

Profits andprofit margins(6 ssrlos)

Cash flows(2 series)

Profits(2 series)

Unit labor costsand labor $hw(4 series)

VII .MONEYAND CREDIT(26 series)

Vel»ootty!f i

Ut*rf«*)

Ivtfetmit f#l#t !

Out*tirvdiftg debt( I *#H«*)

E&a n k r«$«r ves(I mtm)


independent measurement error and other "noise"in the included series are smoothed out in theindex as a whole. The indexes include only monthlyseries that are acceptable in terms of relativelyprompt availability and reasonable accuracy.

The main composite indexes are distinguished bytheir cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index ofleading indicators, series which historically reachedtheir cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than thecorresponding business cycle turns. There is anindex of roughly coincident indicators, consistingof series which historically reached their turningpoints at about the same time as the generaleconomy, and an index of lagging indicators, whichincludes series that typically reached their peaksand troughs later than the corresponding businesscycle turns.

The leading index contains series with long aswelt as short leads, but each series leads on theaverage over time and shows a frequency of leadsat the individual turns exceeding that attributableto chance, given the historical distribution, ofcyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies, tothe components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,leads were generally more frequent and longer atpeaks than ait troughs of business cycles,, while lagswere generally more frequent and longer at troughsthan at peaks. The adopted system of scoring andclassifying the indicators takes into account thesewel l -establ ished di f ferences in t im ing .Consequently, rough coincidences include shortleads" (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exactcoincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range isfrom -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads andplus denotes lags in months.)

For purposes of constructing a composite index,each component series is standardized: The month-to-month percent changes in a given series aredivided by the long-run average (without regard tosign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatileseries are prevented from dominating the index.The coincident index is calculated so that its long-term trend (since 1948) equals the average of thetrends of its four components. This trend, which issimilar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can beviewed as a linear approximation to the secularmovement (at an average growth rate) in aggregateeconomic activity. The indexes of leading and lag-ging indicators have been adjusted so that boththeir trends and their average month-to-monthpercent changes (without regard to sign) are ap-proximately equal to those of the coincident index.(For a more detailed description of the method ofconstructing the composite indexes, see the 1977Handbook of Cyclical Indicators,)

In addition to these principal composite indexes,differentiated according to cyclical timing, thereare five indexes based on leading indicators whichhave been grouped by economic process. Takentogether, these additional indexes include all 12component series of the overall leading index, plusa few related series. Also shown in this section isthe ratio of the index of roughly coincident

indicators to the index of lagging indicators, aseries known to have a useful pattern of earlycyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts ofthe composite indexes show the length, in months,of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the referenceturning dates covered.

The next set of data consists of series includedin the principal composite indexes. These are the12 components of the leading index, the 4components of the coincident index, and the 6components of the lagging index. Following the titleof each series, its typical timing is identified bythree letter symbols in a small box. The first ofthese letters refers to the timing of the givenindicator at business cycle peaks, the second to itstiming at business cycle troughs, and the third toits timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughscombined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" atendency to roughly coincide with the businesscycle turns (as represented by the NBER-designated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendencyto lag. Since these series have been selected for theconsistency of their timing at both peaks andtroughs, all components of the leading index aredenoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincidentindex "C,C,C," and all components of the laggingindex "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered thatthese classifications are based on limited evidence,namely the performance of the indicators duringthe business cycles of the 1948-70 period, whichincluded five peaks and five troughs. While thetiming classifications are expected to agree withthe patterns prevailing in the near future, they willnot necessarily hold invariably in every instance.The timing of the series in the post-1970 period canbe determined by inspection of the charts, where the1973-1975 recession and the 1980 recession areshaded according to the dates of the N6ER referencecycle chronology.

Section 6. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process

This section covers 111 individual time series,including the 22 indicators used in theconstruction of the composite indexes. The peakand trough timing classifications are shown on thecharts in the same manner as described above, butthis section includes series with different timing atpeaks and at troughs, as well as series where thetiming is not sufficiently consistent to be classifiedas either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilisticmeasures and scoring criteria adopted. Such seriesare labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing atturning points of the given type. Eight series areunclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite butdifferent timing at peaks and at troughs). No seriesthat is classified as U both at peaks and at troughsis included in the list of cyclical indicators.

The classification scheme which groups theindicators of this section by economic process andcyclical timing is summarized in the twotabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A isbased on the observed behavior of the series at fivebusiness cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,

August '57, April '60, and December '69); cross-classification B, on their behavior at five businesscycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,February '61, and November 70). Each tabulationdistinguishes seven major economic processes andfour types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cellsidentify subgroups of the given economic processwith the given timing characteristic. The number ofseries in each such group is given in parenthesesfollowing the title. Complete information on howindividual indicators are classified by timing atpeaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selectedmeasures and scores, is provided in the 1977Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.

Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change

Many series in this report are aggregatescompiled from numerous components. How theindividual components of an aggregate move over agiven timespan is summarized by a diffusion indexwhich indicates the percentage of components thatare rising (with half of the unchanged componentsconsidered rising). Cyclical changes in thesediffusion indexes tend to lead those of thecorresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexesare highly erratic, they are computed from changesmeasured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.Longer spans help to highlight the trends underly-ing the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexesare shown for the component series included ineach of the three composite indexes and for thecomponents of some of the aggregate series shownin section B.

Diffusion measures can be derived not only fromactual data but also from surveys of anticipationsor intentions. Indexes based on responses ofbusiness executives about their plans andexpectations for several operating variables arepresented, along with the corresponding indexesbased on actual data, as the last set of diffusionseries.

This section also records rates of change for thethree composite indexes (leading, coincident, andlagging) and for four indicators of aggregateeconomic activity: GNP in constant dollars(quarterly), industrial production, employee hoursin nonagricultural establishments, and personalincome less transfers in constant dollars. Rates ofchange are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for1-quarter spans.

Although movements in diffusion indexes and inrates of change for the same aggregates aregenerally positively correlated, these two measurespresent information about two related but distinctaspects of economic change. Diffusion indexesmeasure the prevailing direction or scope ofchange, while rates of change measure the degreeas well as the overall direction. As is the case fordiffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the ratesof change tend to lead those of the correspondingindexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to leadat the business cycle turns as well.


Part I I . OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMICMEASURES

This part is divided into six sections which covera wide range of quarterly and monthly time seriesmeasuring various aspects of economic activity.Some of these series are very comprehensive,pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, othershave to do with particular sectors or markets, andstill others relate to U.S. international transactionsor to selected foreign countries. The representedvariables include incomes, outputs, andexpenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;labor resources; government receipts,expenditures, and defense related activities; ex-ports and imports; and selected indicators for a fewkey foreign countries.

Section A. National Income and Product

The national income and product accounts,compiled by BEAf summarize both receipts andfinal expenditures for the personal, business,foreign, and government sectors of the economy.

Section Al shows the gross national product,final sales, and personal and disposable personalincome. The four major components of the grossnational product—personal consumptionexpenditures, gross private domestic investment,government purchases of goods and services, andnet exports of goods and services-are presented insections A2 through A5. Most of the series insection A are presented in current as well asconstant dollars. There are also a few per capitaseries. The national income and product accounts,briefly defined below, are described more fully inthe Survey of Current Business, Part I,January 1976.

Gross national product (GNP) is the marketvalue of final goods and services produced by thelabor and property supplied by residents of theUnited States, before deduction of allowances forthe consumption of fixed capital goods. It is themost comprehensive measure of aggregateeconomic output. Final sales is GNP less change inbusiness inventories.

Personal income is the income received bypersons (individuals, owners of unincorporatedbusinesses, nonprofit institutions, private trustfunds, and private noninsured welfare funds) fromall sources. It is the sum of wage and salarydisbursements, other labor income, proprietors'income, rental income of persons, dividends,personal interest income, and transfer payments,less personal contributions for social insurance.

Disposable personal income is the personalincome available for spending Dr saving. It consistsof personal income less personal taxes and nontaxpayments to government.

Personal consumption expenditures (A2) isgoods and services purchased by individuals,operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, andthe value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,and financial services received in kind by in-dividuals. Net purchases of used goods are also in-cluded.

Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixedcapital goods purchased by private business andnonprofit institutions and the value of the changein the physical volume of inventories held byprivate business. The former include all privatepurchases of dwellings, whether purchased fortenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of usedgoods are also included.

Government purchases of goods and services(A4) is the compensation of government employeesand purchases from business and from abroad. Itexcludes transfer payments, interest paid bygovernment, and subsidies. It includes grossinvestment by government enterprises but excludestheir current outlays. It includes net purchases ofused goods and excludes sales and purchases ofland and financial assets.

Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exportsless imports of goods and services. Exports are partof the national production; imports are not, but areincluded in the components of GNP and aretherefore deducted. More detail on U.S.international transactions is provided in section E.

National income (A6) is the incomes thatoriginate in the production of goods and servicesattributable to labor and property supplied byresidents of the United States. Thus, it measuresthe factor costs of the goods and services pro-duced. It consists of the compensation ofemployees, proprietors' income, rental income ofpersons, corporate profits, and net interest.

Saving (A7) is the difference between incomeand expenditures during an accounting period.Total gross saving includes personal saving,business saving (mainly undistributed corporateprofits and capital consumption allowances), andgovernment surplus or deficit.

Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—Themajor expenditure components of GNP(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed aspercentages of GNP, and the major incomecomponents of national income (compensation ofemployees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed aspercentages of national income.

Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity

The important data on price movements includethe monthly consumer and producer price indexesand their major components. Based largely onthese series are the quarterly price indexes fromthe national income and product accounts, notablythe GNP implicit price deflator (with weightsreflecting the changing proportions of differentexpenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed-weighted price index tor the gross business prod-uct. Data on both levels and percent changes arepresented for the period since 1971.

The group of series on wages and productivityconsists of data on average hourly earnings andaverage hourly compensation (including earningsand other benefits) in current and constant dollars,output per hour of work in the business sector, andrates of change for most of these measures.

Section C. Labor Force, Employment, andUnemployment

This section contains measures of thu civilianlabor force and its major components: Totalnumbers of employed and unemployed persons.The number Of unemployed is subdivided intoselected categories defined by sex, age, and classof worker. Also included are data on participationrates for a few principal segments of t ie laborforce.

Section D. Government Activities

Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (sur-plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:(1) Federal Government and (2) State and localgovernment. Also shown is a selection of seriesfrom the discontinued Defense Indicators,These series measure defense activities whichinfluence short-term changes in the nationaleconomy. Included are series relating toobligations, contracts, orders, production,shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.These series ark grouped according to the time atwhich the activities they measure occur in thedefense order-production-delivery process, Seriesmeasuring activities which usually precede pro-duction, such as contract awards and new orders,are classified as "advance measures of defenseactivity." Series measuring activities which tend tocoincide with production, such as employment, andactivities which usually follow production, such asshipments, are classified as "intermediate and finalmeasures of defense activity."

Section L U.S. International Transactions

This group includes monthly series on exports(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus afew selected components of these aggregates. Alsoshown are the balances between receipts andexpenditures for goods and services, merchandise,and investment income.

Section F. International Comparisons

This section is designed to facilitate a quickreview of basic economic conditions in six of thenations with which we have important traderelationships. The U.S. business cycle shading hasbeen omitted from these charts. Data on industrialproduction, consumer prices, and stock prices forCanada, the United Kingdom, France, West Ger-many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the cor-responding U.S. series. Also included is an in-dustrial production index for the Europeancountries in the Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development (OECD). The in-dustrial production series provide cyclically sen-sitive output measures for large parts of theeconomies covered. Changes in consumer price in-dexes (plotted for the period since 1971) provideimportant measures of the rates of inflation in themajor industrialized countries. Stock prices (alsoshown beginning In 1971) tend to be significant asleading indicators.


HOW TO READ CHARTS

Peak (P) of cycle indicatesend of expansion and begin-ning of recession (shadedarea) as designated by NBER.

Solid line indicates monthlydata. (Data may be actualmonthly figures or movingaverages.)

Broken line indicates actualmonthly data for series wherea moving average is plotted.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates quarterly data.

Parallel lines indicates a breakin continuity (data not avail-able, extreme value, etc.).

Solid line indicates monthlydata over 6- or 9-monthspans.

Broken line indicates monthlydata over 1-month spans.

Broken line with plottingpoints indicates quarterlydata over 1-quarter spans.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates quarterly data overvarious spans.

Diffusion indexes and ratesof change are centered withinthe spans they cover.

Solid line indicates percentchanges over 3- or 6-monthspans.

Broken line indicates percentchanges over 1-month spans.

Solid line with plotting pointsindicates percent changes over3- or 4-quarter spans.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES

Basic Data

Diffusion Indexes

Rates of Change

>Li m^\W\

- - §

Trough (T) of cycle indicatesend of recession and begin-ning of expansion as desig-nated by NBER.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth for which data areplotted. ("9" = September)

Dotted line indicates antici-pated data.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter for which dataare plotted. ("IV" = fourthquarter)

Various scales are used tohighlight the patterns of theindividual series. "Scale A"is an arithmetic scale, "scaleL-1" is a logarithmic scalewith 1 cycle in a given dis-tance, "scale L-2" is a log-arithmic scale with two cyclesin that distance, etc.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth for which data areused in computing the in-dexes.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter for which dataare used in computing the in-dexes.

Dotted line indicates antici-pated quarterly data overvarious spans.

Arabic number indicates latestmonth used in computingthe changes.

Broken line with plottingpoints indicates percentchanges over 1-quarter spans.

Roman number indicateslatest quarter used in com-puting the changes.

1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE atthe back of the report where series are arranged alphabeticallyaccording to subject matter and key words and phrases of theseries titles, or -

2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back ofthe report where series are listed numerically according toseries numbers within each of the report's sections.


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators

Sirins t i t l t Timingclassifi-cation3

Unitof

measure

Basic data'

Average

1981

2dQ1982

3d Q1982

4th Q1982

Oct.1982

Nov.1982

Dec1982

Percent chinim

Oct.,to

Nov.to

Dec198,'

2cJ Qto

3d Q198?

3dQto

4th Q1982

I. C Y C L I C A L INDICATORSA. Composite Indexes

910. Twelve leading indicators .920. Four coincident indicators930. Six lagging indicators

Leading Indicator Subgroups:913. Marginal employment adjustments ..914. Capital investment commitments . . ,915. Inventory investment and purchasing916. Profitability917. Money Bnd financial flows

B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic ProcessB 1 . Employment and Unemployment

Marginal Employment Adjustments:* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfi].2 .

2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.3 . . .*5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted4}

3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv.4!1 .4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2

Job Vacancies:60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons

unemployed2

46. Help-wanted advertising

Comprehensive Employment:48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments..42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities

M l . Employees on nonagri. payrolls40. Employees in mfg., mining, construction . .90. Ratio, civilian employment to total popula-

tion of working age2

Comprehensive Unemployment:37. Total unemployed (inverted4)43. Unemployment rate, total {inverted4)2

45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy-rate (inv.4)2

*91 . Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4)44. Unernploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)2 .

B2. Production and Income

Comprehensive Output and Income:50. GNP in 1972 dollars52. Personal income in 1972 dollars

*5V Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars .53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and con-

struction, 1972 dollars

L.L.LC,C,C

Lg,Lg,Lg

L.L.LL.L.LL,L,LL,L,LL.L.L

L,L,LU.LL,L,LL.C.LL,L,L

ULg.U

L,Lg,UULg.U

U,C,CU,C,CC,C,CLX,U

U,Lg,U

L,Lg,UL,Lg,UL,Lg,U

Lg,Lg,LgLg,Lg,Lg

c,c,c

1967=100 .do. ..do. ..

do.do.do.do.do.

Hoursdo. . .

PercentThousands.Percent

do. ..

Ratio1967=100..

A.r., bil. hrs.Thousands.

do. ..do. ..

Percent

Thousands.Percent

do. ,.WeeksPercent

c,c,cc,c,c

c.c.c

A.r., bil. dol.do. ..do. . .

..do. .

Industrial Production:*47. Industrial production, total

73. Industrial production, durable mfrs74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars

Capacity Utilization:82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB2

83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA2

84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB 2 .

c.c.cc,c,cC.L.Lc,c,c

L.C.U

B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, andDeliveries

Orders and Deliveries:6. New orders, durable goods7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 do l la rs . . . .

*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol.25. Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods2

£16. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, dureble goods5

*32. Vendor performance2 <§)

Consumption and Trade:5E5. Manufactur ing and trade sales

* 5 7 . Manufactur ing and trade sales, 1972 dollars .71i. Industr ial p roduc t ion , consumer goods54. Sales of retail stores59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars5E. Personal consumpt ion expend. , autos58. Index of consumer sentiment ©

B4. Fixed Capital Investment

Formation of Business Enterprises:*12. Net business formation

13. New business incorporations

L.C.U

L,L,L

U.LLLg.Ul,L,L

c.c.cc.c.cC.L.CC,L,U

1967-100..do. ...do. ...

A.r., bil. dol.

Percent. .do.

U.L.U

i'.i'x

L,LLL,L,L

do.

Bil. doldo. . . .do. . . .do. . . .

Bil. dol., EOPPercent

B i l . d o l . . . .do. ..

1967=100..Mil. d o l . . . .

..do, ..A.r., bil. dol.IQ 1966-100

1967=100...Number. . . .

133.1141.3187.8

93.0103.1102.393.4

137.9

39.82.83.4461.61.3

0.429

169.9997,03091,10525,481

58.28

8,2737.63.4

13.72.1

1502.61242.01069.1

230.2

151,0140.5164.8689.5

78.476

79.9

83.2437.4133.12-0.14308.37

45

350.52156.79147.9

36,56644,910

67.270.7

113.548,435

128.132.2177.4

NA99.997.8NA

138.4

38.92.3NA579NANA

166.0496,12589,61923,882

57.06

10,6789.74.615.63.

1475.51247.51065.8

216.2

138.6124.7156.1661.1

69.8NA

69.0

74.8032.3829.34-1.72287.66

37

NANA

142.689,18644,529

70.968.0

127.4134.1184.1

NA99.397,188.140.2

39.12.NA567NANA

0.249

167.2596,32990,02924,179

57.25

10,3699.44.5

15.3.0

1478.41251.71072.

219.6

139,4126.1155.5663.2

70.371

69.6

75.4832.8029.92-3.03296.87

33

345.02152.61143.5

89,05944,786

67.866.2

129.8131.4176.7

NA99.499.389.3

139.5

39.02.4NA594NANA

0.21178

165.7996,1989,37123,676

5 7.01

11,02510 ,,04.716.13.3

1481.11248.21064.7

214.0

138.2124.8156.4665.1

69.769

68.1

74.2332.0330.02-3.38286.71

39

341.18150.38144.4

89,09144,236

69.566.7

46,602NA

45,686

131.4128.3165., 1

NA102.498.4

NA137,3

38.92.3NA

608NANA

0.19879

163.6395,70588,68723,103

56.57

11,83910.75.1

17.54.1

1471.71248.31059.3

208.8

135.1119.7155.4654.5

67.6NA

66.1

73.0931.2928.000.32

287.6641

NANA

141.691,72245,318

78.272.5

NANA

130.6128.5168.

NA101.99.192.9

136.9

38.82.3NA

670NANA

0.19576

164.3595,76388,86023,239

56,65

11,57610.55.2

17.13.8

1243.61056.6

209.4

135.8120.5156.0

69.6029.8827.70-2.75283.96

44

332.54146.29142.2

90,29044,544

130.8128.3165.0

NA101.598.394.1

137.

38.92.3NA

615NANA

163.2695,67088,68423,082

56.57

11,90610.75.2

17.34.1

132.3128..?161.

N/5

104.197*9NA

137.8

38.2.3NA538NANA

0.20583

163.2895,68288,51822,988

56.50

12,03610.85.0

18.04.3

0»2-0*2-2.0

NA-0.2-O.fc1.30.2

0.30.NA8.2NANA

2.6

-0.7-0.1-0.2-0.7

-0.08

-2.9-0.20.-1.2-0.3

1.5-0.1-1.9

NA2.6

-0.4NA0,4

0.0.HA

12,5NANA

0.010

0.0.-0.2-0.4

-0.07

-1.1-0.10.2-4.0-0.2

1247.61057.9

134.8119.3155.2

1253.81063.5

208.

134.7119.3155.1

0.30.1

-0.7-1.0-0. 5

0.5: 0.5

0.1

-io.i0.

- 0.1

-2.0-4.0

0.12,31.0

-0. 5

-0,30.NA

-4.8NANA

-0.038

-0 . 9-0.1-0.7-2.1

-0.24

-6.3-0.6-0 .2-5.9-0.3

0.2-0.3-0.7

-2.5

-0.9-1.00.60.3

-0.6

-1.5

1.2-2.4-6.6

NA3.0

-0.9NA

-1.6

-0.3-0.1NA

-2.4NANA

-0.013

-1.3-3.5-0.8-2.4

- 0. 44

-7.4-0.7-0.4-8.7-0.8

-0.60.-3.5

-2.4

-4.1-0.6-1.6

-;2. iNA

-2.0

70.6130.2128.09-2.10281.86

40

336.37148.26141.1

92,61345,803

79.0633.7728.215.80

287.6638

NANA

141.492,26345,607

1.51.11.4

0.65-0 .7

-4

1.21.3

-0 .82.62.8

12.011,8

0i47.00

-2

0.2-0 .4-0 .4

73.4

NANA

7 2 . 1

NANA

71.9

NANA

- 1 . 8

NANA

-0.3

NA:NA

- 1 . 7-2 . 3

0 . 30 .35-3.4

6

-1.1-1.50.60.

-1 .22.50.8

NA- 2 . 0

- 1 . 5-2 .3-6 .73. 70

0.3

3.02.4

12. 58.7

NANA


Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued

Series title Timingclassifi-cation3

Unitof

measure

Average

1981 1982

Q1982

3d Q1982

4th Q1982

Oct.1982

Nov.1982

Dec.1982

Percent change

Oct.

Nov.1982

Nov.

Dec.1982

2dQto

3d Q1982

3d Q

4th Q1982

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.

B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.

Business Investment Commitments:10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment...

*20. Contr. and orders, plant and equip.,1972dol

24. New orders, cap. goods indus,, nondefense . . .27. New orders, capital goods industries, nonde-

fensn, 1972 dollars9. Construction contracts, commercial and in-

dustrial buildings, floor space11, New capital appropriations, mfg97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5

Business Investment Expenditures:61. Business expend., new plant and equipment . .69. Machinery and equipment sales and business

construction expenditures76. Industrial production, business equip86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol.

Residential Construction Commitments andInvestment:28. New private housing units started, total . . . . .

*29. New building permits, private housing89. Fixsd investment, residential, 1972 dol

B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

Inventory Investment:30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol.2

*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,1972 dollars (smoothed6)2 '.,..*....

31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.2 .,38. Chg. in mtl. stocks on hand and on order2 . .

Inventories on Hand and on Order:71. Mfg. and trade inventories, totals

*70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dol.s

65. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goodss

77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,constant dollars2

78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and onorder5

L,L,L

L,L,L

Bll. dol. .

..do.L,L,L

L,L,L

L,C,UU,Lg,UCLg.Lg

C,lg,Lg

CLg,LgC,Lg,UC,Lg,C

UL.LL.L.LL,L,L

LL,L

do. . . .

do. . . .

Mil.sq.ft. . .Bil.dolBil. dol., EOP

A.r., bil. dol.

do. . . .1967=* 100...A.r., bil. dol.

A.r., thous. .1967=100...A.r., bil. dol.

do.

do.

B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

Sensitive Commodity Prices:*92. Chg. in sensitive prices (smoothed6}2 .

23. Spot market prices, raw industrials © .

Stock Prices:*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®.,

Profits and Profit Margins:16. Corporate profits after taxes18. Corp. profits after taxes, 1972 dollars .79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj . .80 do in 1972 dol..15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 .26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm bus . . .

Cash Hows: . ..34. Net cash flow, corporate -.35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars

Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:63, Unit labor cost, private business sector68, Labor cost (cur. dot.) per unit of gross

domestic product (1972), nonfin. corp. , .*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg64. Compensation of employees as percent of

national income2

B7. Money and Credit

Money:85. Change in money supply (Ml )2

102. Change in money supply (M2)2

*104. Chg. in total liquid assets (smoothed6)2 . , .105. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars

•106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars

Velocity of Money:107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml)2

108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply (M2)2

L,L,LL,L,L

Lg,Lg,LgLg.Lg.LgLg,Lg,Lg

Lg.Lg.Lg

L,Lg,Lg

L,L,LU,L,L

L,L,L

L,L,LL,L,LL,C,LL,C,.L

do.Bil. dol. .

Bit. dol., EOPdo. . . .do. . . .

Ratio

Bil.dol., EOP

Percent1967=100...

194143=10-

A.r., bil.dol.do. . . .do. . . .

IXXIXX

IXXIXX

Lg,Lg,Lg

Lg,Lg,LgLg,Lg,Lg

Lg,Lg,Lg

L,L,LL,C,U

do. . . .Cents1977=100..

A.r., bil.dol.do. . . .

1977=100,,.

Dollars1967=100...

Percent

Percent.do.

L,L,LL,L,LL.L.L

Cndit Flows:33. Change in mortgage debt2 . ,

112. Change in business loans2

113. Change in consumer installment credit3110. Total private borrowing

C,Lg,C

L,L,LLL.L

do.Bil. dol. .

do.

Ratio.

L.L.LLL.L

do.

A.r., bil.dol.do. . .do. . .do....

28.10

14.1424.04

12.39

77.7226.4292.74

321.49

348.59

181.1

172.0

1,087

80.0

44.9

9.0

3.42

36.8

0.10

519.39

269.85

87,66

1.70

223.13

1.27283.4

128.04

150.976.2

109.4

55.54.8

98.0

275.2

134.7

143.1

1.305

210.3

75.1

0.520.80

0.93197.6803.6

6.839

1.383

39.9119.4020.87319.58

12.1720.72

10.60

57.42NANA

319.99

NA

157.3

165.4

1,061

79.6

40.0

-8.5

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

242.5

119.71

116.6NANANANA

96.8

NA

NA

153.0

1.389

229.4

0.690.77

0.86198.2831.3

6.686

1.340

NA22.64

NANA

24.14

12.1820.74

10.72

59.01

19.33

82.82

323.22

330.81160.5166.7

95274.140.1

- 4 . 4

-15.61-0.3

-2.68

512.98265.18

85.90

1.74

207.39

241.7

116.356.2

100.0483.6

96.5

263.5123.3

152.9

1.388

230,0

76.3

0,230.760.98

197.4828.2

6.7401.347

0.8045.2215.69

298.08

23 .39

11.4019.83

9.88

56.9618.7173.82

315.79

319.59

153.1

163.4

1,118

79.5

39.5

3.4

-8.87

9.7

-1.68

515.40

266.03

86.40

1.77

202,36

237.4

113.82

119.457.1

105

50.43.6

96.8

272.6

128.6

153.8

1.392

229.8

0.670.81

0.98195,5833.0

6.777

1.335

-7.77

18.346.91

258.50

24.61

12,3820.52

10.66

52,20

NA

NA

315.21

NA

145.0

159.6

1,25398.841.7

NA

NA

NA

NANANA

NA

NANANANANA

97.3

NA

NA

154.5

NA

231.4

1.290.75

0.66202.0846.0

6.543

1.322

NA-11.07

NANA

11.9620.18

10.57

54.75

309.21146.4

1,12694.7

-6.11

-14.1

-1.90

514,22

265.33

86.37

1.81

200.46

0.59235.5

231.0

1.720.680.74

199.6838.5

1.327

-48.8513.60-3.89

11.3620.17

9.88

50.17

26.65

13.822.1.20

11.54

51.68

1.2

-5.00.

-6.5

-8.4

311.58144.6

NA144.1

0.8-1.2

1,40496.3

1,229105.4

24.71.7

-13.24

-67.5

-1.43

508.60

262.38

85.07

1.77

199.04

0.70230.4

0.47227.4

139.37

-7.13

-53.4

0.47

-1.1-1.1-1.5

-0.7

0.11-2.2

4.1

231.4 0.3

1.410,97

0.65202.2846.0

0.74

0,600.59204.3853,4

-0.310.29

-0.091.30.9

-9.05-24.7330.28

1.319

NA-22.07

NA

-0.008

39,80-38.3334.17

12.3

21.7

5.1

16.8

3.0

NA-0.3

-12.59.4

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

-0.23-1.3

0.9

-0.2

-0.67-0.37

-0.061.00.9

0.

NA2.66NA

-3.1

-6.4-4.4

-7.8

-3.5

-3.2

-10.9

-2.3

-3.4

-4.6

-2.0

17.4

7.3

-1.5

7.8

6.74

10.0

1.00

0.5

0.3

0.6

0.03

-2.4

1.59

-1.8

0.3

-0.1

-0.2

0.440.050.

-1.00.6

0.037

•0.012

-8,5726.88-8,78-13.3

5.2

8.6

3.5

7.9

-8.4

NA

NA

NA

-5.3

-2.3

12.1

24.3

5.6

-21.1

NA

NA

NA

NANANA

NA

NA

-0.20-2.7

2 . 71 .65 . 33 . 90 .0 , 3

3 . 54 . 3

NANANANANA

0 . 5

NANA

NA

0.7

0.62-0.06-0.323,3

1.6

-0.234

-0.013

NA29.41

NANA



Series title Timingclassifi-cation3

Unitof

measure

Basic data1

Average

1981

579.602.37

-1,0511,359

16.3814.0812.8715.4811.3316.3119.5618.87

327.08

182.2413.21

195.5272.4

0.7274.6

293.4329.0306.0264.3271.3

138.9

92.6143.295.4

100.7

108.67100.408,2733,6152,8951,763

79.052.155.4

628.2688.2-60.0416.8385.0

31.7

15,9458,0654,855153.7

19,4563,6084,456

21,7516,3192,190

1982

NANA

-6661,052

12.2610.7212.2314.6811,6615.3014.6914.86

NA

210.97NA

207.2289.1

0.3285.7

299.3319.5310.4279.6280.9

148.3

93.3153.696.5

101.0

110.2099.53

10,6785,0893,6131,977

78.752.754.1

614.7762.6

-147.9437.3405.4

31.9

NANA

6,120178.5

NANANANANANA

2dQ1982

NA2.16

-9821,297

14.5112.3612.9415.6512.3316.4117.1116.50

332.51

210.3112.98

206.0287.3

0.7285.2

298.6324.8308.9277.8278.0

147.4

93.5152.396.4

100. 3

110.0999.72

10,3694,8683,5541,947

78.852.754.1

617.0736.6

-119.6434.3402.2

32.1

18,69411,490

5,462176. 2

18,2943,4204,033

19,7524,1372,613

3d Q1982

NA2.19

-390718

11.019.71

12.2014.7211.3914.9813.2714.72

334.24

215.9012.66

208.5292.8

0.4286.9

300.0320.6310.6281.7282.4

149.6

93.1154.796.1

101. 2

110.6399.60

11,0255,3203,6842,020

78.853.053.9

613.7769.7

-156.0440. 5408.2

32.3

17,5019,2784,778182 .7

17,6372,7334,119

21,2325,5142,595

4th Q1982

NANA

-36578

9.297.93

10.3412.22

9.9012.8711.2611.96

NA

217.43NA

210.7293.4

0.1288.2

300.3315.6311.3283.8285.6

151.3

93.5157.097.0

102 .2

110.9799.14

11,8395,8293,9612,049

78.852.954.1

NA815.9

NANA

414. 9NA

NANA

7,290188. 9

NANANANANANA

Oct,1982

NANA

- 5 1455

9.717.75

10.5112.639.69

12.99

12.52

333.91

219.4212.79

294.10.5

288.2

299.9314.7310.3282.7284.2

150.8

93.2

110.7599.18

11,5765,7143,8242,038

78.952.854.1

16,4765,4234,821

16,6982,6813,829

21,0965,7332,551

Nov.1982

NANA

-177579

9.208.04

10.1811.8910.0612.82

11.85

336.44

217.3612.83

293.60.1

288.4

300.4317.4311.7283.5286.4

151.1

93.3

111.0499.14

11,9065,8653,9892,052

70.952.954.4

18,599NA

5,091

15,6932,7833,686

18,9364,7782,081

Dec.1982

NANA

1 1 9699

8.958.01

10.3312.159.96

12.80

11.50

NA

215.52NA

292.4-0.3

288.0

300.6314.6311.8285.1286.2

151.9

94.0

111.1399.09

12,0365,9094,0712,056

78.753.153.9

NANA

11,959

NANANANANANA

Parctnt change

Octllo

Nov.1982

MA

]. 26124

-0.5,10.29

-0.33-0.74

0.3?-o.i t- 0 . 6 7

o.si-0.9]0.04

-0 .2-0 .4

0.1

0.20.90.50.30.8

0 . 2

0 . 1

0.30.2.92.64.30.7

0.0.10.3

12.9NA

5.6

-63

-3-10-16-18

087274

Nov.to

Dec.1982

NANA

-296L20

-0,.25-0..03

0.150,26

-0.10-0.02

-0.35

NTA

-0 .8NA

-0.4--0.4-0 .1

! 0.1! -0.9

0.1 0.6I -0 .1

0 . 5

0 . 8

0.1-0.1

1.10.82.10.2

-0.20.2

-0.5

NANA

134.9

jNANANA

iNAiNA'NA

2dQto

3d CJ1982

NA-0.03

-592-579

-3.50-2.6 5-0 - 74-0.93-0.94-1.43-3.84-1.78

0 . 5

2.7-0.12

1 .21.9

-0.30.6

0.5-1.30.61.41.6

1 . 5

-0.41.6

-0.30 .9

0.5-0 .1

(5.39.33.73.7

0.0.3

-0.2

- 0 . 54.5

-36»41 .41. 50 . 2

-6.4-19.3-12.5

3 .7

-3.6-20.1

2.17.5

33.3-0.7

3d Qto

4th Q1982

NANA

-354-140

-1.72-1.78-1.86-2.50-1.49-2.11-2.01•-2.76

NA

0.7NA

1 . 10.2

-0 .30.5

0.1-1 .60.20.71.1

t . l

0.41 .50.91 .0

0.3-0.57.49.67.51.4

0.- 0 . 1

0.2

NA6.0

Nf*VNA

NA

NANA

5 2 . 63 . 4

HANANAHA!̂ ANA

I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.B7. Money and Credit-Con.

Credit Difficulties:14. Liabilities of business failures (inv 4 ) ©39. Delinquency rate, instal. loans {inv.4)2 s . .

93. Free reserves (inverted4)2©94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve2 ( t f ) . . .

Interest Rates:119. Federal funds ra te 2 ©114. Treasury bill r a te 2 ©115. Treasury bond yie lds2©116. Corporate bond yields2©117. Municipal bond yields2©118. Mortgage yields, residential2©

67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans2©*109. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 ®. . .

Outstanding Debt:66. Consumer installment credit3

*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,weekly reporting large comm. banks

*95. Ratio, consumer install, credit to pers. income2

II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMICMEASURES

B. Prices, Wages, and ProductivityB1. Price Movements

310. Implicit price deflator, GNP320. Consumer prices (CPI), all i tems©

320c. Change in CPI, all items, S/A2

322. CPI, food

330. Producer prices (PPI), all commodities ©331. PPI, crude materials332. PPI. intermediate materials333. PPI, capital equipment334. PPI, finished consumer goods

B2. Wages and Productivity

340. Average hourly earnings, production workeis,private nonfarm economy

341. Real average hourly earnings, productionworkers, private nonfarm economy

345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus..346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business ..370. Output per hour, private business sector

C. Labor Force, Employment, andUnemployment

441. Total civilian labor force442. Total civilian employment

37. Number of persons unemployed444. Unemployed males, 20 years and over445. Unemployed females, 20 years and over446. Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age . . . .

Labor Force Participation Rates:451. Males, .20 years and over2

452. Females, 20 years and over2

453. Both sexes, 16-19 years of age2

D. Government Activit iesD 1 . Receipts and Expenditures

501. Federal Government receipts502. Federal Government expenditures500. Federal Government surplus or deficit2 . . .511. State and local government receipts512. Stateand local government expenditures . .510. State and local govt. surplus or deficit2

D2. Defense Indicators

517. Defense Department obligations525. Military prime contract awards548. New orders, defense products564. National defense purchases . . . .

E. U.S. International TransactionsE1 . Merchandise Trade

602. Exports, total except military aid604. Exports of agricultural products606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery612. General imports, total614. Imports of petroleum and products616. Imports of automobiles and parts

L,L,LL,L,L

L,U,UL,Lg,U

ULg.LgC,Lg,LrjC.Lg.LgLg.Lg.LgU,lg,Lg

L L L

Lg,Lg,LgLg.Lg.Lg

Lg.Lg.Lg

Lg.Lg.LgLg,Lg,Lg

Mil.dolPercent, EOP

Mi l .do l . . .do.

Percent. .do.do.do.do.do.do.do.

Bil.dol., EOP

Bil.dolPercent

1972=100..1967-100...Percent1967=100...

do. . . .do. .,do. . . .do. . .do. ..

1977 = 100..

do. . .do. . .do. . .do. . .

Millions . . .do. . .

Thousands.do. . .do. . .do. . .

Percent. . . .do. . .do. . .

A.r.

Mil.

A.r.

, bil.dol.. .do. . . .. .do. . . ...do. . . ...do. . . .. .do. . . .

dol..do. . . ...do. . . ., bil.dol.

Mil.dol. . . .do. . . ,do. . . ,

. . . . . d o . . . .do. . . .do. . . .



Series title

Unitof

measure

Basic data1

Average

1980 1982

3dQ1981

4th Q1981

1st Q1982

2dQ1982

36 Q1982

4th Q1982

Percent change

1st Q

2d Q1982

2dQto

3d Q1982

3d Q

4th Q1982

I I . OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMICMEASURES-Con .

E2. Goods and Services Movements ExceptTransfers Under Mil i tary Grants

618. Merchandise exports620. Merchandise imports622. Merchandise trade balance2

651. Income on U.S. investments abroad652. Income on foreign investment in the U.S.668. Exports of goods and services669. Imports of goods and services667. Balance on goods and services2

Mil.doL. .do...do...do...do...do., .do...do.

A. National Income and Product• A 1 . GNPand Personal Income

50. GNPin 1972dollars200. GNPin current dollars213. Final sales, 1972 dollars224. Disposable personal income, current dollars . .225. Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars227. Peir capita disposable pers. income, 1972 dol..

A.r., bil.dol. ,. . . . . . . d o . . ,

. .do. .do. .

. . . . . . . d o . .A.r., dollars.

do . .

A2 . Personal Consumption Expenditures

231. Total, 1972 dollars233. Durable goods, 1972 dollars238, Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars239. Services, 1972 dollars230. Total, current dollars232. Durable goods, current dollars236. Nondurable goods, current dollars237. Services, current dollars

A x , bil.dol.do . .

. . . . . . . d o . .do. .do. .do. .do . .do. .

A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

241. Total, 1972 dollars243. Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars

30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dol.1

240. Total, current dollars242. Total fixed investment, current dollars . . .245. Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol.2

, .do...do...do...do...do.

A4. Government Purchasesof Goods and Services

261. Total, 1972 dollars263. Federal Government, 1972 dollars267. State and local governments, 1972 dol lars.. .260. Total, current dollars262. Federal Government, current dollars266. State and local governments, current dollars .

A5. Foreign Trade

256. Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars .257. Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars .255. Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol.2 . .262. Exports of goods and services, current dol. . .253. Imports of goods and services, current dol. . .250. Net exports of goods and serv., current dol.2

. .do.

..do...do...do...do...do.

..do.

..do.

..do.

. .do. .

. .do.

. .do.

A6. National Income and Its Components

220. National income2110. Compensation of employess2132. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj286. Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj . .284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj . .288. Net interest

..do.

..do.

..do.

. .do.

..do.

..do.

A7. Saving

290. Gross saving (private and govt.)295. Business saving292. Personal saving298. Government surplus or deficit2

293. Personal saving rate2

..do.

..do.

..do.do.

Percent . . .

56,05962,394-6,33418,17110,69485,52683,4512,074

1474.02633.11479.01824.11018.06,4754,472

930.5137.1355.8437.6

1667.2214.3670.4782.5

208213

- 5 ,402.412-10.0

284.6106.5178.1538.4197.2341.2

159.2108.6

50.6339.2314.025.2

2117.11598.6116.3

181.632.9187.7

406.2332.1106.2-33.2

5.8

59,064

66,036

-6,972

21,486

13,227

93,223

90,454

2,770

1502.6

2937.7

1493.7

2029.1

1043.1

6,537

4,538

947.6140.0362.4445.2

1843.2234.6734.5874.1

225.8216.9

9.0471.5451.1

20.5

287.1110.4176.7596.9228.9368.0

158.5116.442.0367.334126.1

2352.51767.6124.7190.633.9235.7

477.5374.5130.2-28.2

6.4

NA

NA

1475.5

3057.5

1484.0

2172.5

1054

6,358

4,544

957.1138.7365.2453.2

1972.0242.7762.7966.6

196.9

205.4

-8.5

421.9

443

-21.4

291.2116.1175.0647.1257.3389.8

147.5117.2

30.3349.7333.216.5

2436.1855.120.161.34.

413.9NA

141.1

-116.16.5

57,694

65,539

-7,845

22,048

13,865

92,965

90,406

2,559

1510.4

2980.9

1493.9

2060.0

1048.8

6,563

4,557

951.4142.2363.0446.2

1868.8241.2741.3886.3

233.4216.916.5

486.0454.2

31.8

286.4110.7175.7600.2230.0370.1

157.8118.739.2

367.2341.325.9

2387.31789.1

127.5193.1

33.6244.0

490.0379.1134.4-24.5

6.5

593

778

185

727

198

259

316

943

1490.1

3003.2

1485.3

2101.4

1051.9

6,458

4,559

943.4134.1363.1446.2

1884.5229.6746.5908.3

218.9214.1

4.8468.9455.7

13.2

291.3116.0175.3626.3250.5375.7

156.9120,4

36.5367.9344.423.5

2404.51813.4124.1183.933.6

249.5

476.3389.1158.6-72.5

7.5

029

3,123

1470.7

2995.5

1486.1

2117.1

1046.9

6,360

4,527

949.137.362.449.

1919.237.749,932.

195.4210.8-15.4414.8450.4-35.6

289.2114.4174.9630.1249.7380.4

151.7114.7

36.9359.9328.631.3

2396.91830.8116.4157.133.9

258.7

428.8380.3139.1-90.7

6.6

174

869

695

562

874

266

295

971

1478.4

3045.2

1482.7

2151.5

1054.8

6,380

4,552

955.0138.3364.5452.21947.8240.7755.0952.1

202.3206.7-4.4

431.5447.7-16.2

285.3110.3175.0630.9244.3386.6

154.4118.7

35.7365.8330.934.9

2425.2

1850.7

117.3

155.4

34.2

267.5

441.5384.6144.3-87.5

6.7

52,48064,938•12,45821,88014,46288,05890,632-2,574

1481.1

3088.2

1477.8

2198.1

1058.3

6,375

4,555

956136.4365.9454,01986.3240.3768.4977 .6

206.3202.9

3.4443.3438.6

4.7

291.1116.2174.9651.7259.0392.7

147.512 0.0

27.5349.5342.5

6.9

2455.61868.3118.4166.234.6

268.1

422.4394-2152.0

-123.76.9

1471

3101

1489

2223

1057.9

6,319

4,542

968.0142.836845 7.02034.6251778

1004.5

183.6201.3-17.7397.9436.4-38.5

299.0123.7175.4675.7276.1399.6

136.4115.3

21.1323,7330.6-6.9

NA

1873.7

128.1

NA

33.9

267.0

NANA

128.9NA5.8

-1.1

-1.3

178

8.0

6.0

1.2

0.3

848

0.5

1.7

-0.2

1.6

0.8

0.3

0.6

0.60.60.60.61.51.20.82.1

-1.9

11.0

4.0

-0.6

19.4

-1.3

-3.6

0.1

0.1

-2.2

1.6

1.83.5-1.21.60.73.6

1.21.10.8-1.10.93.4

3.01.13.73.20.1

-4.9

6.7

-6,763

-3.0

-2.8

-3.5

3.8

-6,545

0.2

1.4

-0.3

2.2

0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.1

-1.4

0.40.42.0-0.21.82.7

2.0

-1.8

7.8

2.7

-2.0

20.9

2.0

5.3

-0.1

3.3

6.0

1.6

-4.5

1.1

-8.2-4.53.5

-28.0

1.31.00.96.91.20.2

-4.32.5

5.3-36.20.2

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

-0.6

0.4

0.8

1.2

0.

-0.9

-0.3

1.24.70.60.72.44.71.32.8

-11.0

-0.8

-21.1

-10.2

-0.5

-43.2

2.7

6.5

0.3

3.7

6.6

1.8

-7.5-3.9-6.4-7.4-3.5-13.8

NA0.38.2NA

-2.0-0.4

NANA

-15.2

NA-1.1

618

620

622

651

652

668

669

667

50200213224225217227

231233238239230232236237

241

243

30

240

242

245

261

263

267

260

262

266

2562572552522532 50

220280282286284288

290295292298293

NOTE: Series are wasoneily adjusted except tor those indicated by © , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are incurrent dollars unless, otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA = not available, a = anticipated.EOP = end of period.. A.r. - annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted {used for special emphasis). IVA • inventory.valuation adjustment. CCA = capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national income accounts.

1 For a few series, data shown here heve been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.7 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.3The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the serial at peaks, at troughs, end at all turns: L = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg = lagging; U = unclassified.* Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2, 2, t) placed at the terminal month of the span.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Chart A l . Composite Indexes

(Nov.KOet.) ( ( l i i i . ly-Hflpr.) (Apr.)(Feb.)

H P T

Index: 1967 «10O

91Q|;index owehre leading indicatorsS, 8,12,19, 20k 29̂ 32, 36, 92, 1MH06) ^

20. Index of four roughly coincided pilic a tors f(series 41, 47; 51; 57) ' "" '"

[930. hufllof six UggULJoikitKi(s<||$ 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109)

60 61 02 63 64 SB 66 @7

ISO"!

H O -

no-no-

1. 0"

U0-

1*1)1-

Ut •

Wf-

. '0-

1,0-

! » • • * -

1948 49 S6 51 S2 53 54 BU Is© U

NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

10 JANUARY 1983 ItCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A COMPOSITE! INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued

<Nov.)(Oct.)P T f* 1 F T P T

(Mar.)P T

(Jsn.)Cluly)P T

_9 913. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)

914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20,

915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 92) _3

-3 916. Profitability (series 19, 26,

917. Money lind financial flows (series 104,106,110) -

946. Ratio, coincident index to lagging

so §($ 9? SS b© (̂ &1 §2 63 64 65 66 67 §S 6S ?O 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 7$ 7% 80 81 021983NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.Current data for these series are shown on page 60.

ItCII JANUARY 1983 11Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components

1. Average workweek, production workers,manufacturing (hours)

5, Averj$ejveekly initial claims, State unemployment insurancelaims, State une^ e 7 [ 7 7 ^

8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars '

327^(18367 perfofmanceTTercerit "of companW receiving sRi i rl iveries (pfercent)

12, Net business formation (index: 1967-100)

20, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,

Current data for these series are shown on pai;es 61 , 64, 65, and 66.

12 JANUARY 1983


COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued

36. N«t change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars, smoottitd1 (ann. rate, b i , dol.)

l

189*-

100 «

60*-

h strriilfi^cm^maFerTafs'prices,imbdtfieS1 (percenTf

104. Change in totaJ liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent)

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks(index: 1 9 4 1 - 4 3 * 10)

106. Money supply—M2—in 1972 dollars (bil. do].)

1Thts is a weighted 4-term moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, and 7 1 .

BCII JANUARY 1983 13Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Cont inued

Chart A3. Coinc ident Index Components

(Nnv.)(OeUP T

on nonagricultural payrolls (miions)

C

51. Personal income less transfer payments,1972 dollars (ami rate, bil.

47. Industrial pradu^ta, tot$l (indeii:

C,C

57. Manufacturing and trade sales,1972

1948 49 UQ b l B2 53 H4 ^S S® B? ^S B9

Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.

^ •• x? u. m

14 JANUARY 1983Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued

Chart A4, Lagging Index Components

(lulvHMaP (

(Aig.) f Apr > i/\pr.)(F@b.;P T P T

(Nov.") (Mar.)P T

(Jen.) (July)P T

91, Average duration of unemployment (Weeks—inverted scale)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bT3oL)

L

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967 = 100)

L

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weeklyreporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.)

consumer installment credit topersonal income (percent)

y7 su rp ,^ ciCurrent data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.

SI 821983


CYCLICAL '.INDICATORS

CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C PROCESS

C h a r t B l . E m p l o y m e n t a n d U n e m p l o y m e n t

j j a i Employmsjti Adjustments |1. Average workweek, production workers, maftQ^furkig (hours)

21. Average weekly overtime hours, woductfen workers, mamif^taiirtg (hours)

2. Accession rate, mamifactunng (per 101

5. Average weekly mitia! claims, State unemp^ient insurance (thousands—mverted scale)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per lO^^ttiployees—tnverta^stde) [I,L,L|

4. Quit rate, manufacturing ( p ^ 100 employees)

Current data for these series are shown on page 61.

16 JANUARY 1983 KCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued

(ten.) (July)P T

n 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to numberof persons unemployed (ratio)

46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1 1 0 = 100)

48. Employee-hours in noaagricultural establi(ann. rate, bii. j ^

42. Persons engaged rnf m§agricultural activities (mril

4 l s ! fenployees on nonagrkultural payrolls (millions)

cm

manufacturing, commictiofi (miHiofis)

1056 W S© S9 6® Gl

Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.

KCII JANUARY 1983 17Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS


Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued

90»||3tio, civBian employment to total population of working age (percent)S S i -—•—-' i . . " 1 " ! ;: ': " :: J r " ™^~"fc"1 — p f v

|ConjWiensive Unejjj|foment137. Number unemployed, total (milons—inverted scaln)

43. Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted scale) ,*

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent—ittvefUd scale)

91 . Average duration of unemployment (we^s—inverted scale)

; 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed I S weeks and over (pweat—inverted scale)

hi "

• 1 / •

!i6 •

!tb •

ft4-

——I 4 '

9 -

1 0 -

1 1 -

1 2 -

10-

1 2 -

1 4 -

16-

18-

10S6 57 S8 S9 110 61 €ig S3 64

Current data for these series are shown on paga 62.

18 JANUARY 1983 BCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCUO^IL IW0fl

B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)

T

(Dec.) (Nov.)

T

(Nov.) (Mar.)

T

(Jan.) (July)

P T

|Comprehensive Output and Income!

50. GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (frnn. rate, b i

l i l t dollars (ann52. Personal income in

transfer payments in 1972 dollars51. Personal i(ann. rate, bill

OCX

atarfes in mining, manufacturmg, anddollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

53. Wages andconstruct!

SI 82 1983



CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued

Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued

[Indittjtifial Production]

47. Industrial production, total (i*idftic|rI967 = 100)

CXX

74. Industrial production, Mftfcrable manufacture! ;(index: 1967 - 1 0 0 ) " ~~

73. Industrial p^uctkm, durable( N e x : * 1 1 0 0 )

49. value ot(ann

[Cajjly UtilizatioittSisfei " •' 83. Rate of capaeif utilization, rnanufactumg (BEA), Q (Decent)

rmariutactuBpf"'|lii), g (percentfT^^

of capacity*f||plj6firmaterials, (|'pifcent>

5? sg 59

Current data for these series are shown on paces 63 and 64.

HI : i» 1983



Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries

(Aye.) (Apr.)P 1 P I

(Pee.) (Wow.)P T

(Nov.) ( t o . )F T

(Jan.) (July)P T

|Ortfci

;|

i

I 1 •-

::] j

is andI

j !

i!!

I :'

Oeliverifs

J;..•*...!•

6. New orders, durable goods tedustries,cuffmt dollars (bil. dol.)!'# 1

7. New orders, durable1 (bil-dol.) r r p -

goods and m a t e r ^

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, dur

32. Vendor performance, preceiving slower deliv

of companiesart) !

SO-

70-

60-

§0-

30«

+ 4 -

+ 2«

- 2 -

380-

340.

300*

260.

220«

180 -

140-

60 «

100-

75-

BO-

IS*

81 82 1903



CYCLICAL


Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued

(Aug.)tApr.) (Apr.Hhih.) (Pec.) i.Nw.)f

56. Manufacturing and trade sales m current doiars(NLdoL)

57. Manufacturing and trade satesin 1972 dollars (bil. dot.)

trial production, coflsumer goods'

54. Sales of retail stores k current dollars (ML dot)

|9. Sales of retai stores in 1972 dollars (bil. do).)

Up] X

55"." 'Persoriaf coiisumptkm'expenditures,automobiles, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

58. Index of consumer sentiment (1st Q 1 9 6 6 - 1 0 0 )

1956 5? 98 5g) 60 61 (32

Current data for these serins are shown on page 65.

22 JANUARY 1983



Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment

(Aw*.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)

P T P T

(Dec.) (Nov.) (ten.) (July)P T

| Formation of Business! Enter prises

12. Net business formation (index: 1967 = 100)

Investment Commitments |

20. Contracts and orders for plant andin 1972 dollars (bil. dof.)

Manufacturers' new orders,nondefense. in 1972 dollars

4S-

30-

15-

21-

10-

19S3

'This is £i copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.


B CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d

C h a r t B4 . Fixed Capi ta l I n v e s t m e n t — C o n t i n u e d

|Burij»ss Investment Commitments—Con.

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q(bil. dol.)

11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing,

Q <bH. dol.)

61. Business expenditures for new plant # l i f i p m e n t , Q /(ann, rate,L: | :juJA ----- **

[ Bustmss Investmetf Expenditures

69. Machinery and equipment.sales mfi businessconstruction expenditures (aniW^ale, bit. dol.

C

76. Indmtrial production, bmbtss equipment(Mli: 1967-100)

Current data for those series are shown on pages 66 and 67.



Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued

•Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)P T . P T

[Busirjjass Investment Expenditures-—Con.

Nooresidential fixed investment m 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. doi.)

86. Total, Qcjlc

. Producers' durable equipment, Q

cole

87. Structures, Q |Lg,Lg,L

p^ Commitments and Investment |

28. New private housing unth started, total (ann. rate, millions)

29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967 = 100)

89. Residential fixed investment, total, in 1972 dollars, Q(ann. rate, bi l dol.)


B C D JANUARY 1983 25Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS


Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment

(Pee M ?;.}((:

P T

Inmiory fnvesti

30. Change in business inventories. I f72 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

36. Net change in inventories on j M § find on order, 1972 Wars(am. rate, bil. do!.; moving d p p - t e r m 1 ) . " r

mm gy'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.Current data for these series are shown on page 68.

31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories(aim. rate, bl. dol; MCO moving avf.—6-tffNB

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies oni M and on order,manufacturing (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4*$tcin)



Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)PI P T

(Dee.) (Nov.)f 1

(Nov.) (ft/Jar)P I

(Jan.) (July)P T

fJnvehtories on Hand

71. Book value, manufacturing and tracie inventoriescurrent dollars (biL dol.^ ^ S ^

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bit. dol.)

65. Book value of manufacturers' inventoriesof finished goods (fail, dol) * - — ' \ ?

77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade(ratio) \LgXgXgF™*T


I I C I I JANUARY 1983

40-

1.9-

78. Stocks of materials and supplies on tod and on order

82 1§@3


CYCLICAL INDICATORS


Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits

92. Change rn sensitive crude(pefcent; moving avg.—4-t

J 23. Spot market prices, raw industrials2 (tnde&!967

fuXtl ji

19. Stock prices, 500 common st$«( Index: 194143^11 )

[XT m )]^

16. Corporate « t s after taxes, curf̂ t dollars,(aim. ^ i t M ) > ^

andProfit jjfcgins |

ate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars, Qrate, M; do!.) X

80. Corporate profits after t » with IVA and1972 dollars, Q (ann. rM§>\\. dol.)

79. Corporate profits after taxes witMVA and CCAdj,currtnt doiars, Q (ann. rate, bl. i$J.) r-—~

1 ;:• LX.L

'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.'Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Etuieau, Inc.Current data for these series are shown on page 69.



Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

(Aug.) (Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Da.) (Now.)P T

(Nov.) (Mar.) (Jan.) (July)P T

Profits and Profit Margins—Con.]

22. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) to tola corporate domesticw income, Q (percent)

TTalfp, corporal^ profits (after taxes) with inventory Valuation ano*capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domesticincome, Q (perjbent) rjj~[~n

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations, Q (cents)

26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 1977 = 100)

35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars, Q"- (arin; rate; bit. dot.) f

34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current(ann. rate, bil. dol.)



CYCLICAL INDICATORS


Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)P T P T

(Dec) (Nov.)P I

(Nov.) (Mar.)P T

[Un|tobor Costs f j jUbor Share!

63. Unit labor cost, private business sector, Q(index: 1977 = 100)

Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product(1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations, Q (doflars)

62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (niaex: TSfb/

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,Q (percent) f lTT

1956 97 58 59 60 61Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

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Chart 137. Money and Credit

(ALg.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)

P T P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)

P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)

T

(Jan.) (July)

P T

85. Change in money supply Ml(percent; MCD moving; avg.—6-term)

V. JLJLLJJ...JJ1.

102J Change in money supply M2(percen t ; MCD moving a v g . — 6 - t e r m ) h g y

— Stb

104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; moving avg.—4-term1)

LLL

105. Money supply—Ml—in 1972 dollars (bit. dol.)

106. Money supply—M2~in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)L,L,L

107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml , Q (ratio)

CXX

Ver i t y of Money] !108. Ratio, personal mcome to money su

81 82 1983'This in a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.Current data for these series are shown on page 71 .

BCD JANUARY 1983 31Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued

33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

112. Change in bank loans to businesses (ann. rate, bil. dol.; " 1 , ' " ' ftMCD moving avg.—6-term)

113. Change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate, bil. dol.) '

110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann; rats, bil. dol.)

imrA ,jL.I/A. .I

• • -

in

— Lli





(Aug)(Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)P T PI

(Dec.) (Nov.) (Nov.) (Mar.)P I

(Jan.) (July)F T

[Credit Difficulties]

14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale; MCD moving avg,—6-term)

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment(percent—inverted scale) , |L ,L ,L

loans

93. Free reserves (bil. do!.—inverted scale)

fljJ

94. Member bank borrowing fromthe Federal Reserve (bit dol.)


I t C I ) JANUARY 1983 33Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS



(Aug.) (Apr.)

P T

l lnti i t Rates I

(Apr.) (Feb)

P T

• 11! Illl

I

" i n n —

liiiL

I,119. Federal funi t rate (percent)

114. Treasury bill rate

116. Corporate boad fields (percent) - > .

115. Treasury bond yields (percent)

118. Secondary market yieBs on FHA mortgages (percent)

1 - p

1- •)

> • !

l ' -fi

1, ^

u |

iO--'-

Si :j

H-- •

IS ; :

IB-

I H ••i <

1 8 -

9 -

iH"

•/«

4 *

3 -

1956 '37 58 59 60 61 62Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.

34 JANUARY 1983 \M\\Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis



(Aug.) (Apr.)

P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)

P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)

P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)

T

(Jan.) (July)

T

[Interest Rates—Con,[•

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans.-Q (percent)

. Average prime M e charged by

Outstanding Debt |

66. Consumer installment

72. Commerciweekly rbanks

industrial loanslarge commercia

9$. Ratio, consume* installment credit to income (percent)*

68 69 70 71 72 73 74 7S 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 1983

" - , ' j t J l J i

I95@ §7 58


B C D JANUARY 1983 35Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

OYtSUCM, [M IOTO^ i

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes

(Agg.)(Apr.) (Apr.) (Rib.)P T FT

(Dec.) tP

^ i )

950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)^Percent rtslnf

951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span-*-, 1-mo. span—-)

1 i; i is i ! if!! i ij si;? liMl.. PW1

- i JJit *

952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—-, 1-mo. span-—)

9€L Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing— 20 industries (9-mo. span-—, 1-mo. span—)

961, Initial claims, State unemployment insurance—51, areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span-—, 1-mo. span—)

Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172-186 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span—)

s: A

to;:

13C i

100*

100*-

5 3 - ^



DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)P T PI

(Dec.) (Nov.) (Nov.) (Mar.)P T P T

(Jan.) (July)P T

durable gqojfcm^j Percent rising |

WOn

M

965. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q avg. *~ , 1-Q span--.-)

t 4 4 j r

s o -

7 0 -

966. Industrial production—^4 indues (6-mo. span-ir, ^^rio. span-—)100 T

§0*

967. Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrii lNterials (9-mo. s p a n - * , 1-mo. span—-)

968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks—50-82fMMpstries (9-mo. spa^ i— t 1-mo. s p a n — )

960. Net profits, manufacturing-atoit 600 companies

81 82 1983

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

JANUARY 1983 37Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL 8N0ICAT0RS

C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

C h a r t C l . D i f fus ion I n d e x e s — C o n t i n u e d

(Nov.) (Mar.)

<

Percent rising 1

(Jan.)(July)

P T

Actual • • •Anticipated •• • ••

(My,} (ftflar.)

P T

| Percent rising |Aclu4 **•*-*•Anticipr̂ ed .-•••••

970. Business expenditures for new plant and4§iipment--22 industries (1-Q span)

(a) Actual expenditures974. Number of employees, manufacturing and fade (4-Q span)1

(aj-fetual expenditures 975, Level of inventories, manufacturing and tade (4-Q span)1

971. |te# orders, manufacturing (4-Q span) 976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q spaa)1

70"® c

972. f#t ijrofits, rnariufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

90-

70-

977. SeMnf pikes, wholesale tirade (4-Q

973,

'y

fet sales, manufacturing and trade

HVV

(4-Q

I

span)' 978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1

9 0 -

70

60

ZWA,

1971 72 73 74 75 J(B 11 79 80 7 3 •/< A ,«,'This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreot diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about1,400 business executives.Current data for these series aro shown on page 76.

38 JANUARY 1983 BCI»Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Chart C3. Rates of Change


P T

(Dec.) (Wov.)

P T

(Jan.) (July)

P T

1 -month $pans<Percent change at annual rate

910c. Composite index of twelve: leading indicators l

(series 1, 5, 8, 12,19, 2Q, 29, 32, 36, 92,104,106)

920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators(series 41, 47, 51, 57)

930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators(series 62, 70, 72, 91, 9

50c. GNP in constant (1972)

47c. Index of industrial pr

48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural

51c. Personal income less transfer ipayments in 1972 dollars; j _ |

LirLL ' JULJUIJL

S9 (SO §1 (S2 S3 6^ i i ©§ ©7 i@ S9 70 71 72 73 74 7§ 7% 11 7© 7§ 80 SI

NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.


NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apt) (Feb.)FT

223. Personal income in current dollars

ann. rate, bil."dol75

personal incomo i« Q (ann. rate, bil. dol,)

{personal income in 1972(ann. rate, bH. dot.)

217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. do!)

227. vPer capita disposaMI personal income in



A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)FT P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

(Jan.) (July)T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current) [

Annual rate, billion dollars (1972) |

2000-

Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 .


OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURE!

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)FT P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)T

[Anntial rate, billion dollars (current)

gross private domestic investment—

241. Total, Q -

242. Total fixed investment, Q

245. Change in business inventories, Q

243. T o t i fixedlnvestmentt"§

30. Change in butfatss inventories, Q

6 57 Si

Currant data lot these series are shown on page 81


m mmmmi E©@W©MDO


Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.) (Dec.) (Nov.)

P T P T . P T

Government purchases of goods and services—

(Nov.) (Mar.)

P T

(Jan.) July)

i | Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |

[Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)1

1983

Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .


OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES


Chart A5. Foreign Trade

| Annual rate, billion Mm

252. Exports of gop# md services

tlmports of goods abi itirvices, Q

250. Net exports of,f)ods and services, Q

Annual rate, billion dollar* (1972)1

256. Exports of goo#i md

19S6 57 58 B9 60 61 iVi S3 S4Current data for these series are shown on page 82.


A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Chart A6. National Income and Its Components

(Aug.) (Apr.)FT

-~\r

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)T

(Nov.) (Mar.) (Jan.) (July)P T

1 Annual rate, billion dollars (current) [

220. National income, Q

280. Compensation

286, Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q

288. Net interest, Q

"7BZ""Prop^ietrirsr income wtfh inventory vacation aridcapital consumption adjustments, Q

284. Rental income of persons with capitalconsumption adjustment, Q





Chart A7. Saving


P T P

Annual rate, billion dotiars j^urrent) |

290. Gross saving (private and government), Q

295. Business saving, Q

292. Personal saving, Q

298. Government surplus; or deficit, Q

293. Personal saving rate, Q

1936 57 §8 59 60 61


46 JANUARY 1983 I M J )Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income

ipr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)P Tif" ~f

1 Percent of GNP]

235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q

268. State and local government purchasesof goods and services, Q |

26$. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q

' 247. Change in business inventories, Q251. Net exports of goods and services, Q

: H I f ii ;•

(Jan.) (July)P T

248. Nonresidentia! fixed investment, Q

249. Residential fixed investment, Q

70-

15-

10-

[Percent of National Income!

64. Compensation of employees, Q

4

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuationand capital consumption adjustments, Q i

2 8 1 Corporate proTiTs with inventory valuation andcapital consumption adjustments, Q

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q

75-

65-

1 5 1

10-

5 -

0 -

79 SO 81 82 1983



PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Chart B l . Price Movements

(Nov.) (Cte.JP I

(Jan.) (July)P T

Aiw.) (Mar.)

Percent change * t annual rat* |

310. Implicit price deflator, GNP, Q

Index: 1972 = 100 310c. Implicit price deflator, ^ ^S GNP (1-Q span)

311c. Fixed weighted price index, gross business Sredoct (1-Q span)

311. Fixed-weighted price index,gross business product, Q

Producer pr ices-

Producer1 prices—

330. Ml comrtibditFs""335c. Industriaf commodKTes

335. Industrial commodities331c. Crude materials

331. Crude materials

332c. Intermediate

: fnfermediife'nralerials

333c. Capital equipment

333. Capital equipment"

334c. Finished consumer. Fmisfied consumer goods

W7l 72 7% 7% 7%

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.


PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued

>pr.) (Apr.) (Feb.) (Da.) (Nov.)P T

(Nov.) (Mm.)P T

(Jan.) (July)

P T

Percent change at annual rate

320c. All items (6-month span)

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity

341. Real average hourly earnings of productionWorkers, private nonfarm economy1

340. Average hourly earnings of production workers,1 private nonfarm economy (current dollars)1

[Index: 1977= 1001

^^ fl2

EH

12® -

346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,nonfarm business sector, Q 1

345. AverageHdufly cbmperisafidhTaiirempioye^nonfarm business sector, Q (current dol lar)

40-

1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.Current data for these series are shown on pfiges 84, 87, and 88.


OTHER

B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued

6-mbnth spans" (aim." rate)e in average nouriy earnings of production

, private nonfarm economy1—"

340c. Current-dollar earnings

341c. Real earnings

compensation, ail employees, 6-month spans (ann. rate)

, 0 -

Current-dollar compensation

. Real compensation

iated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-

First year average changes, Q (ann. ra te )—

Average changes over life off contract, Q (ann. rate)

Index: MZZsMHU..

358. O u t j « | p r hour, all persons,nonfarm business sector, Q

. Output per hour, all persons,private business sector, Q

370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q

i-quarter spans tann. raiej

v1 9 5 6 5 7 5 8 5 9 6 0 6 1 6 ? £.• : - -V. '•••- i-

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make themcomparable with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.


C LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

441. Civilian labor force, total (millions)

442. Total employed (millions)

Labor force participation rates (percent)—

453. Both sexes 16-19 vears of age

452. Females 20 years and over

Number unemployed (millions)—

37. Total unemployed

444. Males 20 yearsand over

445. Females 20 yearsand over %

446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age

447. Number unemployed,(millions)

448. Number employed part-time for economic

79 80 81 82 1983Current data for these series are shown on page 89.


mwrGOVERNMEMT ACTIVITIES

Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (U b.)

P T P T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

502. Federal Government expenditures, Q

501. Federal Government receipts, Q

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q

511. State and local government receipts, Q

tocal government expenditures,

510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q


52 JANUARY £983



GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued

Chart D2. Defense Indicators

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)P T FT

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)T

(Jan.) (July)P T

[Advance Measures of Defense! Activity

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred(bii. do!.; MCD moving avg,—6-term)

525. Defense Department military prime contract awards(bil. doL; MCD moving avg.—6-term) ;^

543. Defense Department gross unpaid o b l i g a t e outstanding (bil.

548. Manufacturer!1 p w orders, defense products! (bil. doL; MOppoving avg.—6-term|

i! !i i' ^ ' ^ \ & ' i i - H i: it!.'•:"' : ' i ;

70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79Current data for these series are shown on page 90.



Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)P T PI

(Dec.) C^ov.)P I

(Mow.) {Mar.}

QntAediate and fiw| Measures of Defense Activity 1

, .,,,.„ . j i j , , ., ,. . ; . i

557. Output of defense and space equipment (index: 1967=100)

; . _ .

559, Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (bil. dol.)

561. Manufacturers1 p i l e d orders, defense products (bit. dol,)4

functions and military580. Defense Department net outlays, miassistance ( b i j | M ; MCD moving

588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products(bit. dol.; MCD moving avg,—4-term)

1956 57 58 59 SO 61 S:

Currant data for theio «rl«s are ihown on page 91


( f ^ 'n f f in rc^ro)y U \n\\tm ECONOMIC MEASURES


Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Feb.)T P

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)T

' T

| Interjiediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—Cpn.

570. Employment in defen e products industries

Defense Department pers

i I 577. Military

578. Civilian, d i r e c f l l employment

I Natidhal Defense Pur phases• ^ ' -" i f

564. Federal Government p h a s e s of goodsdefense, Q (ann. ra t«dol . )

565. National defense ses as a percent olGNP, Q (percent)

1.6-

1.4-

12"

3.0-

2.5-

2.0-

1.5-

1.0-

0.5 d

220-j

200 -

180-

160-

140-

120-

100-

60-

(UIJL - :.J. ' , . JL'UUL

69 70 71 72 73 74 7§ 7© 77 78 79 80 31 82 198*3

Currerit dat? for these series are shown on page 9 1 .

B U I JANUARY 1983 55Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

OTHER

U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Chart El . Merchandise Trade

(Aug.) (Apr.)P T

(Apr.) (Feb.)P T

1 ;;i

(Dec.) (Kav.)f T

602. Exports, excluding military(bil. dol.; MCD moving avf 5-term)

agricuHaral products

606, Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. dol.)

612. General imports (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg,^44erm)

/ 614. Imports of petroleyp and petroleum procte|$ (bil. dol.)

616. Imports of automobiles a



U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements


P T P T

(Dec.) (Nov.)P T

(Jan.) (July)

P T

Annual rate, billion doitars

Excess of receiptsji it i,

Excess of payments

Goods and services—i l^ j

667. Balance on goods and services, Q

_ ...«r_ ., ._* ^ ., Merchandise, adjusted-

622. Merchandise trade balance

618 Exports, 0 ^

Investment income

6S1. Income on U.S. investments abroad, Q

280-

200 iS

120 J

^^^^tfe^come on fore%n~inve$lments1nlh'e u X l

19S6NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the Period prior to 1960.Current data for these series are shown on page 93.

JANUARY 1983

It 7% 74 7% 7i 17

30*



INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart F l . Industrial Production

(Aug.) (Apr.) (Apr.) (Ft;b.) (Dec.) (Nov.)

P T P " P T

(Nov.) (Mar.)

P T

[index: 1967

72L OECD European countries

] ' ) '

87 §8 S9 60 61 §2 §3


65 66 07

58

12 73

JANUARY 1983Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Chart F2. Consumer Prices

(Nov.) (Mar.)

P T

(Jan.) (July)

P T

Chart F3. Stock Prices

(Nov.) (Mar.)

P T

(Jan.) (July)

P T

I Percent change at annual rate |

Consumer prices—

320c. United States

|6-month spans |Stock prices—

[Index: 1967 — 100 ]

19. United States 160'

120'



CYCLICAL INDICATORS

A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

Yearand

month

1981

JanuaryFebruaryMarch

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember

OctoberNovemberDecember

1982


April . . . .MayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983

January ,FebruaryMarch

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


Q | COMPOSITE INDEXES

910. Index of12 leading in-dicators (series1, 5,8, 12, 19,20, 29, 32, 36,92, 104, 106)

(1967 = 100)

135.2134.2135.8

0)137.3136.0135.2

134.8134.1130.7

128.3128.2127.1

3 i ) r l 25 .5V125.1V125.0

V126.5V12736V128.2

V129.9V129.2V130.2

V130.6"130.8=132.8

920. Index of4 roughlycoincident indi-cators (series41, 47, 51, 57)

(1967-100)

142.0142.5142.4

142.2142.2142.7

0)142.8142.5141.8

139.9138.5136.5

134.1135.7135.0

134.0134.9133.3

132.5rl31.3rl30.5

rl28.5128.3

M28.2

930. Index of6 lagging indi-cators (series62, 70, 72,91, 95, 109)

(1967 = 100)

189.1186.5181.2

179.4189.6191.4

192.6193.5

1)194.1

189.5184.9181.7

rl82.5r 184.1rl83.8

184.5rl84.1rl83.8

182.5rl75.2rl72.4

rl68.4165.0

'161.9

940. Ratio,coincidentindex tolagging index1

(1967 = 100)

75.176.478.6

79.375.074.6

74.173.673.1

73.874.975.1

r73.5r73.7r73.4

72.6r73.3r72.5

72.6r74.9r75.7

r76.3r77.8p79.2

Leading indicator subgroups

913. Marginalemploymentadjustments(series 1, 2, 3,5)

(1967 = 100)

(2)

94.294.194.1

94.994.294.5

0)95.093.691.4

90.590.389.3

<NA)

914. Capitalinvestmentcommitments(series 12, 20,29) l

(1967 = 100)

106.7105.2106.0

106.3105.1103.6

102.5102.4101.5

99.099.799.2

r98.6r97.6r99.0

r99.9r99.1r98,8

r99.8r98.2

rl00.3

rlO1.7rlO1.5plO4.1

915. Inventoryinvestmentand purchasing(series S, 32, (36,92)

(1967-100)

'' 1024103.1103.7

13)104.3103.7103.5

103.8102.8101.9

100.699.698//

97.2 ,96.4 195.9

' 95.897.298.3

99.199.399.6

r99.1r98.3p97u9

916. Profit-ability (series19, 26, 80)

(1967-100)

93.994.4

B>94.5

94.493.793.8

93.593.892.3

92.392.491.6

90.088.888.2

, 88.783.5

1 rftft ft7 OO • U

r88.3r88.691.0

92.9p94.1

(NA)

917. Moneyand financialflows (series104, 106, 110)

(1967-100)

139.4137.5139.0

140.4140.7140.1

139.1138.5136.4

135.0134.4134.7

135.7135.9138.0

140.0($140.8

no Q

139.7140.1138.8

rl36.9rl37.ZP137.8

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by (H); for serfes that mow; counter lo movementsin general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the backof this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e" , estimated; "a" , anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.xSeries 940 reached its high value (84.5) in August 1980, and series 914 reached its high value (108.8) in September 1980.2See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the February 1982 issue.3Includes a substitute value for series 1. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March] 1982 issue.''Excludes series 12, for which, data are not available. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iv of the July 1982 issue.'Excludes series 12 and 36, for which data are not available.6Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.'Excludes series 70 and 95, for which data are not available.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS

B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS

MAJOR ECONOMICPROCESS

Minor EconomicProcess

Timing Class

Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Marginal Employment Adjustments

L . L . L 1, C, L L, L,L L.C.L L, L, L L, Lg, U

Job Vacancies

L, Lg. U I, Lg, U

ComprehensiveEmployment

U, C, C

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember

O c t o b e r . . .NovemberDecember

1982


AprilMayJune . . . .

JulyAugustSeptember


1983

JanuaryFebruary (March

AprilMay . .June .

JulyAugustSeptember


1. Averageworkweek ofproductionworkers,manufacturing

(Hours)

H>40.439.739.9

40.140 ,,240 1

40.039.939.4

39.539.339.1

37.639.439.0

39.039.139.2

39.239.038.8

38.838.9

p38.9

21. Averageweekly overtimehours, produc-tion workers,manufacturing

(Hours)

3.02.82.8

3.0H>3.1

3 0

3.03.02.7

2.72.52.4

2.32.42.3

2.42.32.4

2.42.42.3

2.32.3

P 2 .3

2. Accessionrate, manufac-turing 1

(Per 100 em-ployees)

(3)

3.53.53.4

3.43 .13 4

3.43.22.9

2.93 .12,7

(NA)

5. Averageweekly initialclaims, Stateunemploymentinsurancez

(Thous.)

424410413

395401405

E>395421483

517539551

563514566

566585551

515597671

670615538

3. Layoff rate,manufacturing


n

1.41.31.3

1.11.31 3

B>i.o1.41.7

2.22.32.2

(NA)

4. Quit rate,manufacturing


(3)

1.41.41.3

1.31.31 4

E>1.51.31.3

1.21.11.1

(NA)

60. Ratio, help-wanted adver-tising to personsunemployed1

(Ratio)

Revised*1

0.4740.4780.467

0.4470.4320 448

0.4660.4400.403

0.3780.3660.346

0.3380.3170.289

0.2550.2490.242

0.2280.2120.192

0.1950.195

p0.205

46. Index ofhelp-wantedadvertisingin newspapers1

(1967 = 100)

128129125

118118121

123119112

110111109

10610396

888785

837873

7678

p83

48. Employee-hours in non-agriculturalestablishments

(Ann. rate,bil. hours)

0)171.34170.20170.77

169.57170.80170 70

171.04170.96167.34

169.73168.76168.66

165.66168.93167.92

167.23167.99166.52

166.16165.61165.60

rl64.35• rl63,26

pl63.28

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.*The following series reached their high values before 1981: Series 2 (3.7) in October 1980, series 60 (0.497) in November 1980, and

series 46 (134) in November 1980. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 3See "NewFeatures and Changes for This Issue" (item 2) on page iii of the February 1982 issue. ''See "New Features and Changes for This Issue,"page iii.

I M J I JANUARY 1983 61Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued



Timing Class

Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued

Comprehensive Employment—Continued

U, C,C C, C, C L, C, U U, Lg, U

Comprehensive Unemployment

L. Lg, U L, Lg. U L, Lg. U Lg, Lg. Lg Lg, Lg, Lg

Yearand

month

42. Personsengaged in non-agriculturalactivities, laborforce survey

(Thous.)

41. Employeeson nonagricul-tural payrolls,establishmentsurvey

(Thous.)

40. Employeesin goods-producing in-dustries (min-ing, mfg., con-struction)

(Thous.)

90. Ratio,civilian employ-ment to totalpopulation ofworking age

(Percent)

37. Number ofpersons unem-ployed, laborforce survey

(Thous.)

43. Unemploy-ment rate,total

(Percent)

45. Averageweekly in-sured unem-ployment rate,State programs'

(Percent)

91. Averageduration ofunemployment

(Weeks)

44, Unemploy-ment rate,persons un-employed 15weeks and over

(Percent)

1981

January .FebruaryMarch . .

April . . .May . . .June . . .

JulyAugustSeptember , . .

October . .NovemberDecember

1982


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember , . .

OctoberNovember . . .December . . .

1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember . , .

OctoberNovember , . .December . . .

Revised2

96,54496,80397,148

97,487©97,597

97,033

97,42897,31396,746

96,98196,84096,458

96,30996,32896,230

96,12896,54896,310

96,14396,25496,180

95,76395,67095,682

90,90990,91391,014

91,09991,13191,286

,39691,32291,363

91,22490,99690,642

90,46090,45990,304

90,08390,16689,839

89,53589,31289,267

r88,860r88,684p88,518

25,58825,50125,588

25,53425,54025,656

E>25,71825,63725,583

25,39325,17624,908

24,68424,63124,450

24,28924,25523,994

23,84023,65723,530

r23,239r23,082p22,988

Revised2

58.3858.4358.58

E>58.8058.7258.31

58.4458.3657.94

58.0257.8857.51

57.4657.4157.29

57.1757.4057.17

57.0657.0656.92

56.6556.5756.50

Revised2

8,0488,0327,967

7,8608,1338,047

E>7,8548,0538,271

8,6739,0259,389

9,3469,6699,881

10,25610,38410,466

10,82810,93111,315

11,57611,90612,036

Revised2 Revised2

7.57.47.3

7.27.57.4

H>7.27.47.6

8.08.38.6

8.68.89.0

9.39.49.5

9.89.9

10.2

10.510.710.8

3.53.43.4

3.33.33.2

E>3'.23.3

3.53.84.1

4.14,1

4.54.54.5

4.54.75.0

5.25.2

D5.0

Revised2

14.314.013.9

13.713.514.1

14.014.313.6

13.513.2

13.414.013.9

14.314.916.3

15,616.116.6

17.117.318.0

C2)

2.2r2.22.1

2.02.0

r2.1

2.0;B>2.0

2.1

2.12.22.2

2.22,52.7

r2.83.0

r3.2

3.23.33.5

3,84.14.3

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.Hlata exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS




Timing Class C, C, C

Comprehensive Output and

C, C, C

•ncome

C C, C

PRODUCTION AND INCOME

C.C.C

Industrial Production

cf c, c c, c ,c C L . L C, C, C

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982

JanuaryFebruaryMarch .

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


50. Gross na-tional productin 1972 dollars

(Ann. rate,bil. dot.)

1 ,507 .8. . . .

1 ,502*2

0)1,510.4

1,490*1

1,470.7

1,478*4

1,481." 1

pls471*7

Persona

223. Currentdollars

(Ann. rate,bil. dol.)

2 , 3 0 8 . 12 , 3 3 0 . 12,351.7

2,364.52,379.12,398.4

2,436.32,459.62,478.6

2,487.22,499.02,497.6

2,499.12,513.82,518 6

2,535.52,556.22 566 3

2,588.32,592.02,597.2

r2,611.5r2,621.3

E>p2,636.8

income

52. Constant(1972) dollars


1,227.11,232.21,234.5

1,234.71,234.01,239.5

1,248.11,253.61,253.1

1,251.11,250.11,245.7

1,236.01,243.81,245.0

1,249.61)1 ,256 .7

1,248 8

r l , 2 5 1 . 0rl»248.6rl,245.1

rl,243.6rl,247.6pi,253.8

51. Personalincome, lesstransfer pay-ments, in 1972dollars


1,056.21,061.91,064.0

1,064.51,065.01,069.4

1,071.80)1,078.3

1,077.9

1,076.51,074.31,069.3

1,061.71,068.81,068.3

1,070.31,077.41,070 3

rl,067.5rl,065.4rl,061.3

rl,056.6rl,057.9pi,063.5

53. Wages andsalaries inmining, mfg,,and construc-tion in 1972dollars


0)234.2231.6231.8

231.5231.6232.3

232.0231.4228.9

228.1226.0223.1

222.2223.3221.7

220.9220.3217.5

215.7213.9212.3

r209.4r208.4 •p208.7

47. Index ofindustrialproduction,total

(1967 = 100)

151.4151.8152.1

151.9152.7152.9

0)153.9153.6151.6

149.1146.3143.4

140.7142.9141.7

140.2139.2138.7

138.8138.4137.3

rl35.8rl34.8P134.7

73. Index ofindustrialproduction,durable manu-factures

(1967-100)

141.0140.8142.1

142.5143.5143.2

0)143.6143.4140.9

137.8134.4131.3

127.1129.3128.2

126.7126.1125.5

125.9124.9

rl23.5

rl20.5rll9.3pll9.3

74. Index ofindustrialproduction,nondurablemanufactures

(1967-100)

165.6166.2165.3

165.9166.4165.8

167.10)167.3

165.9

162.8160.3157.4

155.1157.8157.3

156.1155.0155.3

155.7156.9

rl56.7

rl56.0rl55.2P155.1

49. Value ofgoods outputin 1972 dollars


692.8

689." 8

0 ) 6 9 7 . 2

678." 6

661.8

663*2

665*. i

p654.*5

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS

B 1 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued



Timing Class . . . . . .

Q j PRODUCTION AND INCOME—Continued

Capacity Utilization

L, C, U I, 0, U

Q j CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES

Orders and Deliveries \

i, I, L L, L, L L, L, L L; L, L ! L. Lg, U L Lt L

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMay . . .June . ,

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMay . . .June , . .

July .August ,September


1983

JanuaryFebruaryMarch . . .

AorilMayJune . . . .

JulyAupustSeptember


83. Rate ofcapacityutilization,manufacturing(BEA)

(Percent)

78

0)78

"76

*72

72

71

p69

(NA)

82. Rate ofcapacityutilization,manufacturing(FRB)

(Percent)

[H>79] 9

79.8

79.3

74^8

7i!e

76I3

69.'7

p67.*6

84. Rate ofcapacityutilization,materials

(Percent)

H>82!2

81.*2

si! i

75.*2

72!6

69^6

r68.1

p6o!i

Value of manufacturers1 neworders, durable goods industries

6. Currentdollars

(Bil. dol.)

82.5382.7083.86

86.4187.4086.91

E>87.5884.8284.46

77.1978.5976.42

75.0676.3177.86

76.1975.7174.55

76.4572.9873.27

69.60r70.61p79.06


(Bil. dol.)

38.2338.1538.49

39.33©39.51

39.06

39.1537.7337.42

34.0234.4433.43

32.7933.4034.01

33.2732.8732.26

33.04r31.53

31.53

29.88r30.21p33.77

8. New ordersfor consumergoods andmaterials in1972 dollars

(Bil. dol.)

33.0534.3833.92

34.59©35.09

35.02

34.6533.1232.81

30.7230.0330.01

28.7829.2830.25

29.1430.5430.07

30.73r29.6729.66

27.70r28.09p28.21

25. Change in 1unfilled orders,durable goodsindustries

(Bil. dol.)

1.100.520.35

1.621.960.02

1.84-0.40-0.22

-4.07-1;69-2 ,71

-0.49-1.67-0.26

-O.d4-3.61-4,33

-2.59-4.20-3.30

- 2 .75r - 2 . 1 0

[H)p5.8G

96. Manufac-turers' unfilledorders, durablegoods industries

; (Bil. dol.}

311.15311.67312.02

313.64315.60315.62

H>317.46" 317.06

316.84

312.77311.08308.37

307.88306.21305.96

305.00301.19296.87

294.27290.01OQC 71£.00. / 1

283.96,r281.86ip287.66

32. Vendorperformance,companies receiving slowerdeliveries <g)

(Percentreporting)

465052

|H>565248

464843

383230

323635

313038

3740/\r\*+u

444038

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS


MAJOR ECONOMICPROCESS . . . . . . . .


Timing Class

Q | CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES-Continued

Consumption and Trade

C,C,C c, c, c C L,C C,L, U U, L, U L (C, C L, L, L

• • FIXED CAPITAL1 1 1 INVESTMENT

Formation of Busi-ness Enterprises

L, L,L L, L, L

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

July . . . .AugustSeptember . . . .


1982

January . . . . , .FebruaryMarch

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune

July .AugustSeptember


Manufacturing and trade sales

56. Currentdollars

(Mil. dot.)

3 4 7 , 8 5 83 4 8 , 6 5 3350,281

- 352,855353,698

jH>356,524

355,236354,520353,725

346,605344.943341 330

334,579340,571342,121

339,835349,096346,126

344,603339,464339.470

r332,537p336,372

(NA)


(Mil. dot.)

158,66210)159,555

159,019

159,036157,783159,201

158,268156.707156,711

152,649152,494151 360

147,362151,304151,814

150,549154,914152,371

151,927149,721

rl49,509

rl46,289pl48,257

(NA)

75. Index of in-dustrial produc-tion, consumergoods

(1967-100)

146.9147.8148.3

148.9150.7150.3

H>150.7149.6147.8

146.5144.0142 0

139.6141.8141.5

142.1143.6144.8

145.8144.1

rl43.4

rl42.2rl41.1P141.4

Sales of retail stores

54. Currentdollars

(Mil. dol.)

84,10485,20186,128

86,26386,36187,299

87,29287,96187,823

86.41386,73386 572

85,32087.41887,242

88,29490.84188.042

89,44588,50289,326

r90,290H>r92,613

p92,263


(Mil. dol.)

44,90345,19945.426

45,25945.07445,421

45,13545,31744,945

44.08844,16143 990

43,02644,17344,128

44,63845,76443,955

44,47843.96544,265

r44,544[H>r45,803

P45.607

55. Personalconsumptionexpenditures,automobiles


71.6

63l!6

7K5

62^8

68.'6

67.8

69.5

JH>p7S\2

58. Index ofconsumer,sentiment ®

(1st Q1966=100)

71.466.966.5

72.476.373.1

74.1E>77.2

73.1

70.362.564 3

71.066.562.0

65.567.565.7

65.465.469.3

73.472.171.9

12. Index ofnet businessformation*

(1967=100)

C2)

118.1117.1117.7

118.0115.4114.6

113.1113.6111.5

107.6108.8106 2

(NA)

13. Number ofnew businessincorporations

(Number)

46.03948.58847,972

49,41348,99749,172

49.03848.63148,450

47.947E>49,413

47 556

43,33047,23446,899

46,87646,99545,936

44,52546,981

p45,552

(NA)

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.xSeries 12 reached its high value (121.3) in December 1980.2See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iv of the July 1982 issue.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS




Timing Class

iJ | FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued

Business Investment Commitments

L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L I, Lr L L, C, U U, Lg, U C Lg, Lg

Yearand

month

1981

JanuaryFebruary . . .March

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMay , . .June . .

July . .AugustSeptember


1983

JanuaryFebruaryMarch .

AprilMayJune

JulyAugust . . . . . . . . .September


Contracts and orders for plantand equipment

10. Currentdollars

(Bil. dol.)

2 9 . 1 32 5 . 5 72 8 . 1 7

0)30.6128.0728.70

28.2527.8628.00

26.9427.85

r28.10

26.3224.9025.67

25.6922.9523.78

22.9722.5324.68

23.45r23.74p26.65

20. Constant(1972) dollars1

(Bil. dol.)

15.1012.6914.17

15.1914.0914.16

13.4914.1214.32

13.5814.29

r!4.52

13.2711.9512.98

rl3.8511.40

rl1.28

10.8011.08

rl2.31

rll.96rll.36P13.82

Value of manufacturers' new orders,capital goods industries, nondeftmse

24. Currentdollars

(Bil. dol.)

25.0621.8624.46

[H>25.6924.4924.04

24.6624.8724.31

22.5324.3722.13

21.7221.5622.17

22.6120.3319.28

20.3218.8920.27

20.18r20.17p21.20


(Bil. dol)

13.3211.0612.56

13.0512.5312.14

11.9412.8312.75

11.6812,8011.98

11.3210.5411.49

12.5410.289.35

9.689.53

10.43

10.57r9.88

pll.54

9. Construction contracts for com-mercial and industrial buildings12

Square feet offloor space

(Millions)

83.7283.8683.79

79.6484.7581.01

73.4678.6768.12

74.2670.7770.65

56.2965.1063.17

57.3251.7068.02

56.4161.1253.34

54.7550.1751.68

Square meters offloor space3

(Millions)

7.787.797.78;

7.407.877.53

6.827.316.33

6.906.576.56 ;

5.236.055.87

5.334.806.32

5.245.684.96

5.094.664.80

11 { Newlya op roved capitalappropriations,l,Of)O manu-facturing corpora-tions

(Bil. dol.)

27 .70

26^94

22*. 99

25/77

19^33

(NA)

97 Backlog ofcapital appropria-tions, 1,000manufacturingcorporations

(Bi). dol.)

. . .

93*44

96.' i8

[H>97*34

92/74

9i'.ii

p73.*82

(NA)

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.xThe following series reached their high values before 1981: Series 20 (15.66) in December 1980, series 27 (14,12) in 'December 1980, and

series 9 (90.80 square feet and 8.44 square meters) in November 1980. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be re-produced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Converted to metric units by theBureau of Economic Analysis.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS




Timing Class C Lg, Lg C Lg, Lg

B FIXED

Business Investment Expenditures

C, Lg, U C, Lg, C

CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued

Lg, Lg, Lg C Lg, C

Residential ConstructionCommitments and Investment

L, L, L L, L, L L, L, L

Yearand

month

1981

January . . .FebruaryMarch

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1932

January . . . .FebruaryMarch

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


61. Businessexpendituresfor new plantand equipment,total


312 ".24

3 1 6 ! 7 3

0)328.25

327!83

327*72

323.22

315*79

a315*21

a316*40

a32o!66

69. Machineryand equipmentsales and businessconstruction .expenditures


332.78331.57344.52

344.36345.78353 20

348.42357.31

0)360.38

349.27358.67356.78

330.07342.57343.72

325.51335.59331.34

323.71314.09

r320.97

r309.21P311.58

(NA)

76. Index ofindustrial pro-duction, businessequipment

(1967 = 100)

177.7177.5179.3

181,0182.0183 6

0)184.8184.4182.7

180.5179.0179.0

172.2171.6169.0

164.9159.9156.7

154.9153.9

rl50.5

rl46.4rl44.6P144.1

Nonresidential fixed investment ir

86. Total

(Ann. rate,bit. dol.)

169*7

17CU

173.9

0)174*2

172*6

166*7

16314

pl59*6

87. Structures


49!5

si!6

52.5

53*3

53*5

0)53*7

53.6

p52*7

1972 dollars

88. Producers'durable equip-ment


126! i

119] i

0)121.4

120.9

118*5

113*6

I16I4

plO6.*9

28. Newprivate housingunits started,total

(Ann. rate,thous.)

0)1,5851,2941,318

1,3011,1721 046

1,040946899

854860882

885945931

8821,066

908

1,1931,0331,129

rl,126rl,404pl.,229

29. Index ofnew privatehousing unitsauthorized bylocal buildingpermits *

(1967-100)

99.896.694 7

95.895.279 6

76.070.967.4

59.660.064.4

64.964.068.7

71.076.375.0

85.871.781.0

94.796.3

105.4

89. Residentialfixed invest-ment, total, in1972 dollars


0>49*6

47*3

42.9

39*9

38*9

46! i

39*5

p4i*7

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.Series 29 reached i ts high value (119.9) in September 1980.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS




Timing Class

g j j INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Inventory Investment

L, L, L I L L Lt L, L I. L, L .

Inventories on Han̂ J and on Order

Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, |Lg Lg, Lg, Lg I Lg, Lg

Yearand

month

30. Change inbusiness inven-tories in 1972dollars


36. Change in inventories onhand and on order! 1972 dollars

Monthlydata


Smootheddata1


31. Changein book valueof mfg. andtrade inven-tories, total


38. Changein stocks ofmaterials andsupplies onhand and onorder, mfg.2

(Bil. dol.)

Manufacturing and tradeinventories

71. Currentdollars

(Bil. dol.)


(Bil. dol.)

'65. Manufac-turers' inven-tories offinishedgoods, bookvalue

(BiLdoU'

77. Ratio,constant-dollar inven-tories tosales, mfg.and trade

(Ratio)

78. Stocks ofmaterials andsupplies onhand and onorder, mfg.

(Bil. dol.)

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember . .


1983


AprilVtayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


12.1

E>16.5

4.£

-15.4

-4.4

3.4

p-17.7

-15.5016,34-5.47

0.32E>17.44

17.27

5.154.84

14.14

-1.16-2.51

-20.09

-33.66-25.61-9.22

-6.66-28.09-6.92

0.62r-13.01

rl .76

r-14.78p-40.42

(NA)

-6.28-5.63-1.61

1.093.917.89

E>12.4811.198.56

6.994.72

-2.22

-13.34-22.60-24.64

-18.33-14.24-14.27

-12.68r-8.95r-4.99-

r-6.11p-13.24

(NA)

33.958.725.3

21.343.644.6

38.6E>64.3

63.0

34.740.0

-26.2

-37.7-28.2-10.2

24,-54,

29.

4.14.10.

r-14.1p-67.5

(NA)

0.580.77

-0.34

1.311.640.55

1.88-1.09

1.12

-2.71-1.26-1.22

-2.96-2.64-2.11

-1.67-2.33

-0.80-2.211-2.02

r-1.90p-1.43

(NA)

485.40490.29492.40

494.18497.81501.53

504.74510.10515.35

518.24B521.57

519.39

516.26513.91513.05

515.07510.52512.98

513.39514.55515.40

r514.22P508.60

(NA)

262.33263.33263,, 10

263.41264.70265.92

266.53267.56269.42

270.47E>271.17

269.85

267.69266.41)265.98

266.54264.54265.18

265.56265.46266.03

r265.33P262.38

(NA)

79.41280.5582.36

82.1083.5584,00

84,22!85.65:86.86!

88.05 'g>88.5Q

87.66

86.8487.9088,49

87,3986.5685.90

86.6166.6866.40

rS6.3785.07(NA)

1.651.651.65

1.661.681.67

1.681.711.72

1.771.781.78

1.821.761.75

1.771.711.74

1.751.771.78

E>rl.81pi. 77(NA)

222.47223.24222.90

224.21225.85226.40

228.28227.19

(B>228.32

225.61224.35223.13

220.17217.53215.42

213.75211.42207.39

2C6.59204.38202.36

r200.46pl99.04

(NA)

Sea note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 115, 26, and 27."This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.2Series 38 reached its high value (1.97) in July 1980.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS




Timing Class

Q j ] PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Sensitive Commodity Prices

L, L, L • U, LF L

StockPrices

L, L, L

Profits and Profit Margins

U U L • L, L, L L, C, L L, C, L L, L, L

Yearand

month

92. Change in sensitive crudematerials prices

Monthlydata

(Percent)

Smootheddata1

(Percent)

23. Index ofspot marketprices, rawindustrials23©

(1967 = 100)

19. Index ofstock prices,500 commonstocks (g)

(1941-43 = 10)

Corporate profits after taxes

16. Currentdollars

(Ann, rate,bil. dol.)



Corporate profits after taxeswith IVA and CCAdj"

79. Currentdollars




22. Ratio,profits (aftertaxes) to totalcorporatedomestic income3

(Percent)

1981

January . . . . . .FebruaryMarch

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember . . .


1982


AprilMayJune



1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember . . ,

OctoberNovember . . ,December . . ,

2.74H>6.64

-0.62

1.712.250.23

0.47-0.63

0.79

-1.09-0.51

0.16

-1.13-2.09-2.21

-0.421.770.78

1.01r-0.24rl.17

0.660.80

-1.27

2.122.89

H>3.26

2.751.841.26

1.190.500.12

-0.05-0.29-0.38

-0.49-0.76-1.42

-1.69-0.930.21

0.95r0.85r0.58

0.590.700.47

291.6284.2289.8

293.0288.9282.9

286.6289.5283.0

277.2270.5264.2

263.4261.0254.5

247.4245.5232.2

237.0236.2239.0

235.5230.4227.4

132.97128.40133.19

134.43131.73132.28

129.13129.63118.27

119.80122.92123.79

117.28114.50110.84

116.31116.35109.70

109.38109.65122.43

132.66138.10

0)139.37

5230.0 6144.64

0)161.6

146.2

150.8

144.9

115.0

116.3

119.4

(NA)

84.0

74.2

75.4

71.2

56.3

56.2

57.1

(NA)

108.8

105.9

110.7

0)112.3

100.4

rlOO.O

105.3

(NA)

©56.8

54.1

55.6

55.5

49 .2

4 8 . 5

50 .4

(NA)

9.8

8.8

8.1

6.7

6.7

6.9

(NA)

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shewn on pages 13, 28, and 29.1See footnote 1 on page 68. 2Beginning with June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data used by permission; it may not be repro-

duced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3The following series reached their high values before 1981: Series23 (304.7) in November 1980, series 18 (84.2) in 3d quarter 1980, and series 22 (9.9) in 4th quarter 1980. *IVA, inventory valuation ad-justment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 5Average for January 1-18, excluding weekends. 6Average for January 5, 12, and 19.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS

B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS E)Y ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued



Timing Class

fflj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued

Profits and Profit Margins—Continued

U, I, L Lt L, L

Cash Flows

L, L, L L, L, L

Unit Labor Costs ^nd Labor Share

Lg. Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg LK, Lg, Lg

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983

JanuaryFebruary .March

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember

October ,NovemberDecember

81. Ratio,profits (aftertaxes) with IVAand CCAdj tocorp. domesticincome'

(Percent)

6\6

6!6

E)6.1. . .

5\9

5!7

s!6

6.'6

(NA)

15. Profits (aftertaxes) per dollarof sales, allmanufacturingcorporations

(Cents)

(H>5!6

i!9

4.8. . .

! : !

' : ?3\6

(NA)

26. Ratio, priceto unit laborcost, nonfarmbusiness sector

(1977 = 100)

9 ^ 9

9 8 . 1

97~.7

96\7

96 \5

r 9 6 \ 8

Net cash flow, corporate

34. Currentdollars

(Ann. rate,bil.dol.)

E>279!6

267." 7

276.5. . .

2 7 ^ 5

2 5 ^ 9

263 .'5

272!e

(NA)


(Ann. rate,bil.dol.)

[H>141.2

132!6

133.9

ni.8

123^3

128! 6

(NA)

63. Index ofunit labor cost,private businesssector

(1977 = 100)

139!6

144.2

147 9

150 9

152! 9

r l53.*8

68. Labor costper unit of realgross domesticproduct, non-financialcorporations

(Dollars)

1.267

1.289

1.31.5

1.349

1.376;

1.388

Bl.392

(NA)

'(62. index oflabor cost periinit of output(nanufacturing

(1967-100)

202.6203.6204.4

206.1207.4208.9

208.9209.9212.6

216.6219.9222.5

227.9226.0225.8

228.0230.7231.3

230.2229.6

f229.7

1-231.0IHK231.8

0231.4

64. Compensa-tion 0* employ-ees as a percentof nationalinccme

(Percent)

' > • '

75.*3

74.9

7SA

8)715! 4

76! 3

76.! i

(NA)

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.1IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.

70 JANUARY 1983


CYCLICAL INDICATORS


MAJOR ECONOMICPROCESS . .


Timing Class

Q MONEY AND CREDIT

L, L, L L, C, U

Money

L, L, L L.L.L L, L,L

Velocity of Money

C, C tC C Lg, C

Credit Flows

Yearand

month

85. Change inmoney supply(Ml)

(Percent)

102. Changein moneysupply (M2)

(Percent)

104. Change in total liquid assets

Monthlydata

(Percent)

Smoothed

(Percent)

105. Moneysupply (Ml)in 1972dollars2

(Bil. dol.)

106. Moneysupply (M2)in 1972dollars

(Bil. dol.)

107. Ratio,gross nationalproduct tomoney supply(Ml)

(Ratio)

108. Ratio,personal incometo money supply(M2)

(Ratio)

33. Net changein mortgage debtheld by financialinstitutions andlife insurancecompanies2


1981


AprilMayJune


October . . . . .November . . .December . . .

1982


AprilMayJune


OctoberNovember . , .December . . .

1983


AprilMayJune



0.820.361.19

E>2.10-0.95-0.19

0.230.400.02

0.390.811.03

1.75-0.290.22

0.91-0.20-0.02

-0.020.861.16

1.72rl.41p0.74

30.69

0.570.75

0)1.36

1.300.530.49

0.741.070.33

0.631.140.71

1.020.370.93

0.840.890.55

0.821.20K).42

r0.68rO.97p0.60

1.130.870.82

0.721.120.95

0.951.160.68

0.881.130.51

0.950.850.99

0.991.100.90

0^93e0.33

re0.76reO.80eO.10

0.940.970.93

0.870.840.91

0.971.010.98

0.920.900.87

0.850.820.85

0.940.981.01

1.02E)1.02

eO.90

re0.74re0.65e0.59

200.3199.1200.4

203.7200.2198.4

196.6195.8193.7

193.7194.2195.5

198.3197.3198.3

199.6197.3195.2

194.1195.2197.1

199.6202.2

D204.3

798.4796.8803.1

810.1808.1806.1

802.8804.9798.9

800.5805.6808.1

814.1815.1825.0

829.8829.4825.3

827.2834.8836.9

838.5r846.0

E>p853.4

6.811

6.744

0)6.923

6.877

6.685

6.740

6.777

P6.543

1.3861.3891.383

372373

1.378

1.3891.388

Dl.394

1.3901.3811.370

1.3571.3601.350

1.3481.3471.345

1.3451.3311.328

1.3271.319

pi.319

55.8260.6046.93

54,6242.0547.48

60.8534.2026.76

22.7921.665.14

22.0816.393.54

8.743.22

-9.55

-5.57-7.24

r-10.49

r-48.85p-9.05

(NA)

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.1This series is a weighted 4--term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.2Series 105 reached its high value (204.9) in October 1980 and series 33 reached its high value (82.61) in October 1980.3Average for weeks ended January 5 and 12.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS




Timing Class

Q MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

Credit Flows—Continued

L, Lf L L, L, L L, L, L

Credit Difficulties

L,L, L L, L, L

Bank Reserves

u u, u U Lg, U

interest Rates

L, Lg, Lg C Lg, Lg

Yearand

month.

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


April . . .MayJune

July . . .AugustSeptember

OctoberNovember . ,December

1983


AprilMayJune

July . . . .AugustSeptember

October . . , . . . . .NovemberDecember

112. Net changein bank loansto businesses


6.31-7.09

-18.96

35.7141.3632.80

41.1028.3422.93

13.6213.3223.36

46.64E)58.09

9.40

54.3040.5640.80

9.594.88

r40.56

rl3.60r-24.73p-22.07

250.40

113. Netchange inconsumer in-stallmentcredit


14.4722.1435.65

32.6618.8524.37

18.6129.14

0)35.70

12.027.20

-0.40

5.320.90

11.88

14.1016.7916.19

6.840.79

13.10

-3.8930.28

(NA)

110. Totalprivateborrowing

(Ann. rate,mil. dol.)

320,608

0)392,040

318,il6

247,540

267,020

298,084

p258,504

(NA)

14. Currentliabilitiesof businessfailures1®

(Mil. dol.)

341.36789.20485.34

536.88428.20408.54

619.46450.41752.34

897.94618.76626.74

(NA)

39. Delinquencyrate, 30 daysand over, con-sumer install-ment loans

(Percent)

2.422.512.53

2.402.402.30

2.222.352.28

2.372.422.37

2.482.392.24

2.202.21

H>2.16

2.192.212.19

(NA)

93. Freereserves ©

(Mil. dol.)

-1,028-1,023

-719

-1,136H>-1.968

-1,700

-1,335-1,122-1,035

-871-348-330

-1,101-1,414-1,254

-1,307-745-895

-378-199-592

-51r-177pll9

339

94. Memberbank borrow-ing from theFederalReserve (u)

(Mil. dol.)

1,3861,301

994

1,338

2',039

1,6791,4171,451

1,149695642

1,5261,7131,611

1,5811,1051,205

669510976

455579

p699

-

3699

,119. Federalfunds rate @

(Percent)

19.0815.9314.70

15.7218.52

i>19.10

19.0417.8215.87

15.0813.3112.37

13.2214.7814.68

14.9414.4514.15

12.5910.1210.31

9.719.20 ,8.95

39.04

114. Treasurybill rate @

(Percent)

14.7214.9013,48

13.631R)16.3O

14.56

14.7015.6114.95

13.8731.2710.93

12.4113.7812.49

12.8212.1512.11

11.919.018.20

7.758,048.01

"7.73

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 34.'•Series 14 reached its high value (239.34) in November 1980.2Average for weeks ended January S and 12.^Average for weeks ended January 5, 12, and 19.*Average for weeks ended January 6, 13, and 20.

72 JANUARY 1983 nutDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS




Timing Class

Q MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued

Interest Rates-Continued

Lg, Lg. Lg C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg i-g, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg

Outstanding Debt

Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg

andmonth

116. Corporatebond yields (§)

(Percent)

115. Treasurybond yields ®

(Percent)

117. Municipalbond yields ©

(Percent)

118. Secondarymarket yieldson FHAmortgages ®

(Percent)

67. Bank rateson short-termbusiness loans

(Percent)

109. Averageprime ratecharged bybanks (§)

(Percent)

66. Consumerinstallmentcredit

(Mil. dol.)

72. Commercialand industrialloans out-standing, weeklyreporting largecommercialbanks

(Mil. dol.)

95. Ratio,consumer in-stallment creditto personalincome

(Percent)

1981


AprilMayJune



1982


AprilMayJune

July . . . . . . .AugustSeptember . . .


1983

January . .February .March . . .

April . . . .May . . . .June . . . .

July . . . .August . .September


14.0114.6014.49

15.0015.6814.97

15.6716.34

E>16.97

16.9615,5315.55

16.3416.3515.72

15.6215.3715.96

15.7514.6413.78

12.6311.8912.15

l12.04

11.6512.2312.15

12.6212.9612.39

13.0513.61

H>14.14

14.1312.6812.88

13.7313.6312.98

12.8412.6713.32

12.9712.1511.48

10.5110.1810.33

MO.27

9.6810.1010.16

10.6210.7810.67

11.1412.2612.92

12.8311.8912.91

[H>13.2812.9712.82

12.5911.9512.45

12.2811.2310.66

9.6910.069.96

29.44

14.2314.7915.04

15.9116.3316.31

16.7617.96

D18.55

17.4315.9816,43

17,3817.1016.41

16.3116.1916.73

16.2914.6114.03

12.9912.8212.80

19.91

19.99

H)21.X1.

17.23

17.13

17.11

13.27

11.26

20,1619.4318.05

17.1519.6120.03

20.39g>20.50

20.08

18.4516.8415.75

15.7516.5616.50

16.5016.5016.50

16.2614.3913.50

12.5211.8511.50

311.20

307,415309,260312,231

314,953316,524318,555

320,106322,534325,509

326,511327,111327,078

327,521327,596328,586

329,761331,160332,509

333,079333,145334,237

333,913E>336,436

(NA)

174,009173,418171,838

174,814178,261180,994

184,419186,781188,692

189,827190,937192,884

196,771201,612202,395

206,920210,300213,700

214,499214,906r218,286

H>r219,419r?17,358p215,519

"219,719

13.3213.2713.28

13.3213.3013.28

13.1413.1113.13

13.1313.0913.10

13.1113.0313.OS

13.0112.9612.96

12.8712.8512.87

12.79P12.83

(NA)

See note on page 60.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.1Average for weeks ended January 7, 14, and 21.2Average for weeks ended January 6, 13, and 20.3Average for January 1-25."Average for weeks ended January 5 and 12.

M i l l JANUARY 1933 73Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


Q | DIFFUSION INDEXES

950. Twelve leadingindicator components(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104,106)

1-monthspan

16.733 .370 .8

75 .016.741.7

25.050.08.3

25.041.725.0

231.8245.5245.5

263.6263.6245.5

268.2250.0

2 r54 .5

2 r59 .1263.6365.0

6-monthspan

75.058.358.3

45.850.025.0

16.725.08.3

2 9 ,12 9.1

218.2

236.4236.4a68.2

281.8a63.6263.6

254.5254,5365.0

951. Four roughlycoincident indicatorcomponents (series41, 47, 51, 57)

1-monthspan

100.0100.0

! 75.0

50.062.5

100.0

75.025.037.5

0.00.00.0

0.087.537.5

25.075.00.0

25.00.0

rO.O

0.050.0

"33.3

6-monthspan

100.075.0

100.0

75.075.050.0

50.025.012.5

0.00.00.0

0.050.050.0

50.00.00.0

0.00.0

"0 .0

952. Six laggingindicator components(series 62, 70, 72, 91,95, 109)

1-monthspan

33.341.741.7

83.383.366.7

75.066.783.3

75.066.766.7

58.333.350.0

58.341.766.7

50.025.058.3

r33.333.350.0

6-monthspan

50.066.750.0

83.366.783.3

83,366.766.7

66.750,033.3

33.333.350.0

50.033.341.7

33.333.3

=37.5

961. Average workweekof production workers,manufacturing (20industries)

1-monthspan

90.07.5

60.0

72.577.522.5

35.035.015.0

62.520.030 0

5.095.012.5

42.575.072.5

45.025.035.0

52.5r65.0p45 0

9-monthspan

95.087.577.5

60.017.5

5.0

15.012.5

5.0

7.55.05 0

12.542.530.0

30.040.0

r77.5

r32.5p42.5

962. Initial clain^ forState unemploymentinsurance, week irl-eluding the 12th v

(51 areas)

1-monthspan

86.339.231.4

64.778.417.6

68.658.89.8

60.849.022 5

96.124.55.9

62.768.619.6

67.69.8

17.6

r88.2p60.8

(NA)

9-monthspan

76.58,1.47p.6

19.61 .̂6

9.9

r/,69|. 8

27'. 5

11,8s;97 '8

11.831.443 4

: 15.)234

• 9.6)

pl9,,6!(NA);

963. Number of em-ployees on pnvatelonagricultural payrolls(186 industries)

I-monthspan

56.748.751.1

68.365.354.0

59.950.350.3

34.728.231 2

3?. 54?. 535.8

40.951.132.0

43,537..643.0

r26 .1r33.3D41 1

6-rnonthspan

64 .865 .967 .2

67 .767 .267 .5

51 .339.033.9

3 0 . 127 .7?4 2

21 .827 427 .4

29 .828 .830 .1

24 .2r 2 0 . 7p23.7

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are'placed on the 2d month, 6-month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the i2d month of the 3d quarterSeries are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by<u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series Relationships or order. Com-plete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.

figures are the percent of components declining.2Excludes series 12, for which data are not available. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iv of the 1 July 1982 issue.Excludes series 12 and 36, for which data are not available.'•Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.Excludes series 70 and 95, for which data are not available.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS


Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982

January . .February . .March

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


964. Value of manu-facturers' new orders,durable goods indus-tries (34 industries)

1-monthspan

4 1 . 25 2 . 958.8

64.752.950.0

47.126.547.1

26.558.832.4

47.150.035.3

48.567.635,3

50.032.458.8

41.264.7

P47.1

9-monthspan

88.273.570.6

50.047.135.3

32.420.620.6

29.420.614.7

23.520.641.2

20.638.235.3

r26.5p38.2

965. Newly approvedcapital appropriations,deflated (17 manufac-turing industries)

1-quarterspan

56

53

33

30

48

27

p50

(NA)

4-Q movingaverage

*49

43

'ii

*34

p39

(NA)

D| DIFFUSION

966. Index of industrialproduction (24industries)

1-monthspan

8 3 . 36 2 . 54 5 . 8

56.262.545.8

87.552.112.5

20.88.3

20.8

33.375.031.3

20.841.754.2

60.452.141.7

29.2r25.0p41.7

6-monthspan

7 9 . 270.858.3

54.258.345.8

31.320.816.7

8.38.3

10.4

0.012.533,3

41.737.533.3

37.5r25.0p25.0

NDEXES—Continued

967. Index of spotmarket prices, rawindustrials (u)(13 industrial materials)

1-monthspan

30.830.865.4

69.226.938.5

61.561.542.3

38.526.946.2

42.334.638.5

30.834.623.1

61.553.861.5

46.230.846.2

357.7

9-monthspan

38.538.546.2

46.246.253.8

61.542.323.1

23.123.115.4

15.430.826.9

26.919.219.2

26.915.4

3 23.1

968. Index cprices, 500stocks' ®

1-monthspan

66.042.585.8

81.130.267.3

19.240.4

0.0

58.765.467.3

10.634.628.8

88.554.811.5

52.926.5

100.0

98.085.751.0

f stockcommon

9-monthspan

7 9 . 26 7 . 35 9 . 6

5 9 . 644.242.3

46.232.7

9.6

14.410.634.6

34.642.338.5

18.056.079.6

87.887.8

960. Net profits,manufacturing2 (u)(about 600 companies)

(4-quarter span)

*60

59

*49

p48

50

(NA)

See note on page 74.Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.1Based on 53 industries through May 1981, on 52 industries through August 1982, on 50 industries in September 1982, and on 49 industries

thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.3Based on average for January 4, 11, and 18.


1 1 CYCLICAL INDICATORS

I C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continuod

Yearand

quarter

1980

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Third quarterFourth quarter

1981

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Third quarterFourth quarter . . . .

1982

First quarterSecond quarterThird quarterFourth quarter . . . .

1983


yearand

quarter

1980


1981

First quar terSecond quar ter . . . .Third quarterFourth quar ter . . . .

1982

f i r s t quarterSecond quar ter . . . .Third quarterf o u r t h quarter . . . .

1983

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Third quarterFDurth quarter . . . .

970. Businessequipment (22

a. Actualexpenditures

(1-Q span)

77 .35 9 . 150 .054 .5

72 .763 .672 .736 .4

54 .53 4 . 12 7 . 3(NA)

974. Number omanufacturing i

Actual

(4-Q span)

58545351

51535252

484646

(NA)

xpenditures for newindustries)

b. Lateranticipations

(1-Q span)

54.545 .536 .440 .9

72.740 .954 .55 9 . 1

5 9 . 122 .727.350 .0

employees,nd trade' (§)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

54564850

56545655

50515148

50

plant and

c. Earlyanticipations

(1-Q span)

81 .85 9 . 181 .877 .3

70 .568.277 .368 .2

5 9 . 15 9 . 165 .95 9 . 1

45 .5

a DIFFUSION INDEXES—continued

971. New orders, manufac-turing

Actual

(4-Q

975. Level of inventories,manufacturing and

Actual

(4-Q span)

67616460

62646263

585252

(NA)

trade' <§)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

62705356

63616664

54565650

52

®

span)

74636060

68706262

525052

(NA)

1a

Anticipated

(4-Q

DIFFUSION

span)

66755762

74747676

60686460

66

972.and t

Net profits, manufacturingrade 1 ©

Actual

(4-Q span)

62545756

60666060

535252

(NA)

NDEXES—Continued

976. Selling prices, manufacturing' ©

Actual

(4-Q span)

90889090

88868482

726863

(NA)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

87908386

3890B9B4

30765856

55

977.trade

Actual

(4-Q

Selling

span)

92909290

90888482

726768

(NA)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

66 i735961

70697472

61666660

64

prices, wholesale

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

90928788

90898984

82787268

68

973. Net sales,and trade' ©

Actual

(4-Q span)

73626866

70747163

635857

(NA)

978. Sellingtrade' ®

i Actual

(4-Q span)

92919490

94908686

787574

(NA)

manufacturing

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

72806367

78768080

65707265

68

prices, retail

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

90938490

90909287

82817672

69

NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,indicated b y © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 38,

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun S Brad$trcet, Inc. Dun t,Bracistreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.

76 JANUARY 1983


CYCLICAL INDICATORS

C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued

Diffusion index components

All manufacturing industries

Percent rising of 20 components

Durable goods industries:

Lumber and wood productsFurniture and fixtures .

Stone, clay, and glass productsPrimary metal industries

Fabricated metal productsMachinery, except electrical

Electric and electronic equipmentTransportation equipment

Instruments and related productsMiscellaneous manufacturing

Nondurable goods industries:

Food and kindred productsTobacco manufacturers

Textile mill productsApparel and other textile products

Paper and allied productsPrinting and publishing

Chemicals and allied productsPetroleum and coal products

Rubber and miscellaneous plastics productsLeather and leather products

All durable goods industries


Primary metals .Fabricated metal products

Machinery except electricalElectrical machinery

Transportation equipmentOther durable goods industries

96

+

++

0

+

_

0

+

0

:

-

0

May

Q j SELECTED DIFFUSION

June July

1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS(Average weekly hours)

3 9 . 1

(75)

38.537.5

40.238.5

39.539.8

39.441.1

40.238.7

39.437.2

37.934.8

41.836.8

41.044.1

39.935.6

+ 39.2

(72)

+ 38.7+ 37.8

+ 40.4+ 38.9

39.439.6

+ 39.5+ 41.6

o 40.238.6

+ 39.5+ 38.4

37.8+ 35.1

+ 42.0+ 37.1

o 41.0o 44.1

+ 40.1+ 35.7

0

_

0

+

+

0

-

-

964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW(Millions

-

+

+

+

75,710

(68)

8,4539,405

14,40811,888

16,01115,545

- 74,550

(35)

+ 8,6179,389

13,01511,705

+ 16,347- 15,477

+

+

_

+

++

39.2

(45)

38.637.6

40.638.9

39.539.8

39.841.0

40.138.7

39.536.8

37.735.2

41.937.0

40.943.3

40.236.1

-

_

+

-

_

-

0

-

0

-

ORDERS, DURABLEof dollars)

76,446

(50)

8,6609,368

12,87612,396

17,51515,631

-

_

+

_

-

NDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change

1982

August September

MANUFACTURING

3 9 . 0

(25)

38.237.9

40.338.8

39.239.5

39.340.5

40.138.6

39.138.1

38.235.0

41.736.8

40.943.9

39.736.0

-

+-

-

-

-

-

I;

+

-

38.8

(35)

38.537.4

40.237.8

38.839.0

38.839.8

39.838.3

39.439.7

38.135.2

41.537.0

41.244.0

39.635.7

GOODS INDUSTRIES l :

72,982

(32)

8,1788,897

13,09111,572

16,08415,160

+

_

++

+

73,266

(59)

7,9838,668

13,97812,025

14,82815,784

October

o 38.8

(52)

r38.0+ 37.5

o 40.2+ 38.0

+ 38.9+ r39.2

+ 39.0+ r40.1

r39.4+ r38.6

+ 39.7r39.0

+ r38.235.0

+ 41.736.9

40.8r43.3

r39.0r35.2

69,598

(41)

6,9438,297

13,824- 11,115

- 14,267- 15,152

Novemberr

+

++

0

o0

:

0

-

0

0

+

• +

+

+

_

+

+

38.9

(65)

38.737.6

40.238.2

38.939.2

39.240.8

39.338.6

39.538.0

38.535.0

41.737.1

40.644.2

39.236.0

70,607

(65)

7,4668,186

12,97012,193

14,56715,225

December^

o 38.9

(45)

38.537.4

39.638.0

+ 39.0+ 39.3

+ 39.340.2

+ 40.138.4

39.237.5

o 38.5o 35.0

41.4+ 37.2

+ 40.8+ 45.4

+ 39.335.6

+ 79,063

(47)

6,711+ 8,708

+ 14,589+ 12,753

+ 21,188- 15,114

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( —) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p" ,preliminary; and "NA", not available.

lData are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.2Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of

change for the six major industry groups shown here.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS



SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data ana1 Direction of Change-Continued

1982

May June July August Septemberr' October November December^

966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(1967-100)

All industrial production

Percent rising of 24 components J

Durable manufactures:

Lumber and productsFurniture and fixtures

Clay, glass, and stone products.Primary metals

Fabricated metal productsNonelectrical machinery...

Electrical machineryTransportation equipment

InstrumentsMiscellaneous manufactures ...

Nondurable manufactures:

FoodsTobacco products .

Textile mill products ..Apparel products

Paper and productsPrinting and publishing ..

Chemicals and products ...Petroleum products

Rubber and plastics productsLeather and products

Mining;

Metal miningCoal

Oil and gas extractionStone and earth minerals ....

139.2

(42)

110.6151.1

125.075.2

115.8150.0

170.9110.0

163.8141.7

150.5118.6

123.5(NA)

146.5143.8

193.6122.2

257.061,1

90.0149.2

132.7114.6

138.7

(54)

112.2152.5

126.1• 72.8

115.0147.4

170.8111,6

164.8136.8

151.0123.. 6

123.7(NA)

+ 146.8- 142.6

- 193.2+ 124.3

258.962.3

71.8144.4

129.1106.6

138.8

(60)

116.9154.5

126.972.9

115.5147.1

170.3112.7

165.2134.7

151.0121.4

124.3(NA)

147.0143.9

194.1124.7

256.862.9

58.1140.3

127.0103.8

138.4

(52)

+ 120.3+ 156.7

+ 128.8o 72.9

- 114.3+ 147.2

- 169.7- 107.0

+ 165.5- 133.9

- 150.7- 120.6

+ 125.9(NA)

+ 152.5+ 145.3

+ 195.6121.4

+ 261.160.8

53.4- 135.8

123.3+ 105.7

137.3

(42)

- 119.9- 155.7

+ 130.4+ 73.2

- 112.3- 144.9

- 167.0- 105.3

- 161.9- 132.. 9

149.0113.3

126.1(NA)

154.3144.3

196.4122.6

262.060.9

55.4127.9

121.0106.3

13$.8

(29)

117^2154.13

128.1170.P

108.4140.5

165.7-100.8,

156.91130.5'-

+ 150.6- 108.6

o 126.4(NA)

+ -155.0- 142.6

- 193.7+ 123.9

- 256.459.5

+ 65.1+ 143.2

- 119.6+ 108.5

134.8

(25)

119.4150.7

126.567.1

107.4138.0

164.9100.0

153.9129.6

(NA)(NA)

123.8(NA)

153.9142,6

192,8119.9

253.758.8

68.4134.1

119.6109.5

134.7

(42)

(NA)(NA)

(NA)65.9

- 106.5- 135.8

- 164,5* 103.7

4 155.5+ 130.0

(NA)(NA)

(NA)(NA)

152.9144.0

(NA)118,2

(NA)(NA)

(NA)129.7

+ 1 2 3 . 0(NA)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",preliminary; and "NA", not available.

1Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency."Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.


CYCLICAL INDICATORS


Raw


industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .


Copper scrap

Lead scrap..

Steel scrap .

Tin

Zinc

Burlap

Cotton

Print cloth

Wool tops . . .

Hides

Rosin

Rubber

Tallow

( p o u n d ) . ,(ki logram). .

. . ( p o u n d ) . ,(ki logram). .

(U.S. t o n ) . ,(metr ic t o n ) . .

(pound)(kilogram)..

(pound)..(kilogram)..

(yard)(meter)..


(yard)(meter)..

(pound).,(kilogram)..

(pound)(kilogram)..

(100 pounds)(100 kilograms)..

(pound).,(kilogram)..


May

967.

- 245.5

(35)

-

- 0.5301.168

0.1500.331

- 70.00077.161

+ 5.84212.879

o 0.3620.798

0.2420.265

+ 0.6251.378

0.6300.689

- 3.4007.496

+ 0.5581.230

- 47.000103.616

0.4581.010

+ 0.1820.401

-

-

-

-

+

-

-

0

-

0

+

-

m SELECTED DIFFUSION

June

INDEX OF SPOT

2 3 2 . 2

(23)

0.4270.941

0.1420.313

57.80063.713

5.28411.649

0.3680.811

0.2380.260

0.6131.351

0.6260.685

3.4007.496

0.5261.160

47.000103.616

0.4631.021

0.1760.388

+

+

-

+

-

+

0

+

0

+

- •

July

INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic

1982

August September

MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS 2

237.0

(62)

-

0.4651.025

0.1460.322

59.00065.036

5.28011.640

0.3880.855

0.2360.258

0.6591.453

0.5880.643

3.4007.496

0.5411.193

47.000103.616

0.4681.032

0.1680.370

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

0

+

0

-

-

236.2

(54)

0.4611.016

0.1660.366

59.20065.256

5.71412.597

0.3990.880

0.2410.264

0.6151.356

0.5460.597

3.4007.496

0.5441.199

47.000103.616

0.4641.023

0.1500.331

+ 239.0

(62)

Dollars

+ 0.4811.060

- 0.1640.362

+ 60.00066.138

+ 5.82012.831

+ 0.4190.924

+ 0.2520.276

- 0.5881.296

+ 0.5550.607

o 3.4007.496

- 0.5421.195

o 47.000103.616

- 0.4480.988

+ 0..1590.351

Data and Directions of Change—Continued

October

- 235.5

(46)

+ 0.4821.063

- 0.1480.326

o 60.00066.138

- 5.71512.599

- 0.4180.922

+ 0.2630.288

+ 0.5951.312

+ 0.5580.610

+ 3.5007.716

- 0.5061.116

o 47.000103.616

- 0.4250.937

0.1520.335

November

230.4

(31)

+ 0.4851.069

- 0.1290.284

o 60.00066.138

- 5.52412.178

0.4040.891

- 0.2560.280

- 0.5891.299

+ 0.5670.620

+ 3.6007.937

- 0.4891.078

o 47.000103.616

- 0.4190.924

- 0.1440.317

December

- 227.4

(46)

+ 0.5101.124

- 0.1140.251

o 60.00066.138

+ 5.52812.187

- 0.3900.860

- 0.2400.262

+ 0.6101.345

+ 0.6100.667

- 3.3757.441

- 0.4851.069

o 47.000103.616

+ 0.4210.928

- 0.1390.306

1983

January1

+ 230.0

(58)

+ 0.5491.210

+ 0.1270.280

o 60.00066.138

- 5.48312.088

+ 0.4020.886

- 0.2290.250

+ 0.6221.371

o 0.6100.667

- 3.3007.275

- 0.4751.047

o 47.000103.616

+ 0.4370.963

+ 0.1430.315

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) =• rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( —) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",preliminary; and "NA", not available.

1Average for January 4, 11t and 18.2Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without

written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.



I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Yearand

quarter

1980

First Quarter1 I I J l l^UUI I V I • • » • • *

Second QuarterThird quarterFourth quarter . . . .

1981

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Third QuarterFourth quarter . . . .

1982


1983


Yearand

quarter

1980


1981


1982


1983

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Third quarter . . . . .Fourth quarter . . . .

200, Gross national product in current dollars

a. Total

(Ann. rate,b i l . dol.)

2 , 5 7 5 . 92 , 5 7 3 . 42 , 6 4 3 . 72 , 7 3 9 . 4

2,864.92,901.82,980.93,003.2

2,995.53,045.23,088.2

p3,101.3

b. Difference


73.0-2.570.395.7

125.536.979.122.3

-7 .749.743.0

p l3 .1

c. Percentchange atannual rate

12.- 0 .

24

1 1 . 415.

19.5.

11.3.

- 1 .6.5.

p i .

Q | GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued

Disposable personal ncome

224. Current dollars


1,766.91,781.01,845.51,902*9

1,958.71,996.52,060.02,101.4

2,117.12,151.52,198.1

p2,223.5



1,022.81,005.51,018.21,025.7

1,035.01,036.61,048.81,051.9

1,046.91,054.81,058.3

pi,057.9

227.1972

Per

3

6340

0887

capitadollars

(Anrl. ratedollars

A<A

AAA

AAA

pA

,9

E50.

i GNP \HD f'ERSONAL

Gross national product in

a. Total

(Ann. rate,

in

511423466487

519516557559

527552555542

bil. dol.)

1,4941,4571,4631,479

1,507

.9

.8

.8

.4

.81,502.21,5101,490

1,4701,4781,481

p i ,471

.4

.1

.7

.4

.1

.7

230. Totaldollars

(Annbi

1111

1111

111

P2

INCOME

1972 dollars

b. Difference

(Annbil.

in current

rate,dol.)

,618.7,622.2,682.0,745.8

,799.9,819.4,868.8,884.5

,919.4,947.8,986.3,034.6

. rate,dol.)

5-37

615

28-58

-20

-1972

p-9

i

6106

4623

4774

c. Percentchange atannual

j | PERSONAL

231. Totadollars

(Anrbl

rate

1-9

14

7-12

-5

-5I(

.5,6,6.3

.9• 5.2.3

.1

.1

.7P - 2 . 9

2J17. Per capitaqNP in 1972dollars

(Ann. rate,dollars)

6,5936,4136,4216,472

6,5836,5446,5636,458

6,3606,3806,375

p6,319

CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

1 in 1972

. rate,dol.)

937915928941

951944951943

949955956

p968

0800

1644

1030

232. Durabl^ goodsin current dollars

(Ann. rate,bil. dol.')

220.8199,021?,722f.7

23^.9230.4241.22216

237!. 9240,. 7240'. 3

p25l l7

213 Final salesin 1972 dollars

(Ann, rate,bil. dol.)

1,497.51,460.31,472.31,485.7

1,505.41,490.11,493.91,485.3

1,486.11,482.71,477.8

p i ,489.3

233. Durable goodsin 1972 collars

(Ann rate,bil. dol)

145.4128.9134.6139.5

145.3138.6142.2134.1

137.5138.3136.4

P142.8

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not; reflect series relationship!; or order.Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p" , preliminary; "e" , estimated; "a" , anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.

JANUARY 1983



A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Yearand

quarter

1980


1981


1982


1983


Tearand

quarter

1980

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Third quarter . . . . .Fourth quarter . . . .

1981


1982


1983


236. Nondurablegoods in currentdollars


650.6656.7673.7700. f i

720.6729.6741.3746.5

749.1755.0768.4

P778.3

>ERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued

238. Nondurablegoods in 1972dollars


357.8352.7353.7359.0

361.6361.7363.0363.1

362.2364.5365.9

p368.2

• H GROSS PRIVATEI S l DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.

245. Change inbusiness inven-tories in currentdollars


- 0 . 7- 0 . 4

- 2 1 . 2- 1 7 . 7

12.224 .631 .813.2

- 3 5 . 6- 1 6 . 2

4.7p-38 .5

30. Change inbusiness inven-tories in 1972dollars


-2 .6-2 .5-8 .5-6.2

2.412.116.54.8

-15.4-4 .4

3.4p-17.7

237. Services incurrent dollars


747.3766.6795.6820.6

842.4859.4886.3908.3

932.4952.1977.6

pi ,004.5

239. Services in1972 dollars


433.9434.3439,7442.5

444.2444.3446.2446.2

449.5452.2454.0

p457.0

i240. Total incurrent dollars


424.0391.0384.1410.3

455.7475.5486.0468.9

414.8431.5443.3

p397.9

Q GROSS PRIVATE

241. Total in1972 dollars


222.7201.9199.2209.6

221.6229.5233.4218.9

195.4202.3206.3

P183.6

DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

242. Fixed invest-ment, total, incurrent dollars


424.6391.4405.3428.0

443.5450.9454.2455.7

450.4447.7438.6

P436.4

243. Fixed invest-ment, total, in1972 dollars


225.3204.4207.8215.9

219.2217.4216.9214.1

210.8206.7202.9

p201.3

j M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

260. Total incurrent dollars


519.2536.0538.5559.8

578.1583.2600.2626.3

630.1630.9651.7

P675.7

261. Total in1972 dollars


284.7286.9283.4283.2

286.8283.9286.4291.3

289.2285.3291.1

p299.0

262. FederalGovernment incurrent dollars


189.6198.8193.3207.0

217.0218.2230.0250.5

249.7244.3259.0

p276.1

263. FederalGovernment in1972 dollars


106.4109.1105.5104.8

107.9107.0110.7116.0

114.4110.3116.2

P123.7

266. State andlocal governmentin current dollars


329.6337.2345.2352.8

361.1365.0370.1375.7

380.4386.6392.7

p399.6

267. State andlocal governmentin 1972 dollars


178.3177.8177.9178.4

179.0176.9175.7175.3

174.9175.0174.9

p l75 .4

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41 , 42, and 43.



A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Continued

Yearand

quar ter

1980

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Thi rd quarterFour th quar ter . . . .

1981

First quar terSecond quarter . . . .Thi rd quarterFour th quarter . . . .

1982

First quar terSecond quar ter . . . .Th i rd quarterFour th quarter . . . .

1983

First quarterSecond quar ter . . . .Thi rd quarterFourth quarter . . . .

Yearand

quarter

1980

First quar terSecond quar ter . . . .Thi rd quarterFourth quar ter . . . .

1981

f i r s t quar terSecond quar ter . . . .Third quarterFour th quarter . . . .

1982

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Tni rd quarterFour th quarter . . . .

1983

First quarterSecond quarter . . . .Thi rd quar ter . . . . .Four th quar ter . . . .

Q FOREIGN TRADE

Net exports of goods and services

250. Currentdollars


14.024.239.023.5

31.223.725.923.5

31.334.9

6.9p-6.9

i



50.553.253.145.6

48.244.239.236.5

36.935.727.5

p21.1

Exports of goods and services

252. Currentdollars

(Ann. rate,bil. doi.)

335.7337.3337.2346.7

365.4368.9367.2367.9

359.9365.8349.5

p323.7



164.4151.2155.9155.1

159.3159.7157.8156.9

151.7154.4147.5

P136.4

Imports of goods and services

253. Currentdollars


321.7313.1298.2323.2

334.2345.1341.3344.4

328.6330.9342.5

P330.6

J NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued

282. Proprietors'income with inven-tory valuation andcapital consump-tion adjustments


122.7108.9115.5118.0

123.4123.8127.5124.1

116.4117.3118.4

P128.1

284. Rental incomeof persons withcapital consump-tion adjustment


30.832.733.834.2

34.434.033.633.6

33.934.234.6

p33.9

286. Corporateprofits with inven-tory valuation andcapital consump-tion adjustments


195.3172.2177.8181.2

200.3185.1193.1183.9

157.1155.4166.2

(NA)

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,hi!, dol.)

175.7181.6190.4203.0

217.6231.6244.0249.5

258.7267.5268.1

p267.0


(Ann, rate,bil. dot.)

113.9108.0102.8109.6

111.1115,5118.7120.4

114.7118.7120.0 ;

P115.3

• • NATIONAL INCOMEMM AND ITS COMPONENTS

2*20. National in-come in currentdollars

(Ann. rate,, bil. dol.)

2,079/72,067.22,122.32,199.2

2,293.72,324.42,387.32,404,6

2,396.92,425.22,455.6

(NA)

280. Compen-sation ofemployees


1,555.21,571.71,604.91,662.8

1,718.01,750.01,789.11,813.4

1,830.81,850.71,868.3

p i , 873 .7

M M SAV'NG

290. Gross saving(private and govern-ment)


410.8395.8404.4414.0

461.4482.4490.0476.3

. 428.8441.5422.4

(NA)

295. Business;saving

(Ann. rate!,bil. dol.);

322.3330.2335.5340.3

362.7367.0379', 1389i. 1

380 ' 3• 384.16

394.12(NA)

292. Personalsaving

(Ann, rate,bil, dol.)

97.9108.61:3.1105,3

105.9122.0134.4158.6

139.1144.3152.0

p l28 ,9

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.



I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued

Yearand

quarter

1980

First quarter . .Second quarter . . . .Third quarterFourth quarter . . . .

1981


1982

f i r s t quarterSecond quarter . . . .Third quarterFourth quarter . . . .

1983


Yearand

quarter

1980


1981


1982

First quarter

Second quarter . , . .

Third quarter

Fourth quarter . . . .

1983


O f SAVING—Continued

298. Governrmmt

surplus or deficit,

loiai


-10.6-44.2-45.9-32.2

-8.3-7.6

-24.5-72.5

-90.7-87.5

-123.7(NA)

293. Personalsaving rate

vperceni OT QIS-posable personalincome)

(Percent)

5.56.16.15.5

5.46.16.57.5

6.66.76.9

p5.8

Percent of GNP—Continued

265. Federal Govern-ment purchases ofgoods and services

(Percent)

7.47.77»37.6

7.67.57.78.3

8.38.08.4

P8.9

268. State and localgovernment purchasesof goods and services

(Percent)

12.813 .113.112.9

12.612.612.412.5

12.712.712.7

pl2.9

M SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Percent of gross national product

235. Personal con-sumption expendi-tures, total

(Percent)

62.863.063.663.7

62.862,762.762.7

64 .164.064.3

p65.6

Q | SHARES 0

64. Compensation ofemployees

(Percent)

74.876.075.675.6

74.975.374.975.4

76.476.376.1

(NA)

248. Nonresidentialfixed investment

(Percent)

12.111.711.611.6

11.511.811.8

12.0

11.911.611.1

pl0.9

249. Residentialfixed investment

(Percent)

4.43.53.74.0

4.03.83.43.2

3.13.13.1

P 3 . 2

" GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued

Percent of national income

283. Proprietors'income with IVAand CCAdj'

(Percent)

5.95.35.45.4

5.45.35.35.2

4.94.84.8

(NA)

285. Rental incomeof persons withCCAdj'

(Percent)

1.51.61.61.6

1.51.51.41.4

1.41.41.4

(NA)

247. Change inbusiness inventories

(Percent)

0.00.0

- 0 . 8- 0 . 6

0.40.81.10.4

- 1 . 2- 0 . 50.2

p - 1 . 2

287. Corporateprofits with IVAand CCAdj»

(Percent)

9.48.38.48.2

8.78.08.17.6

6.66.46.8

(NA) .

251. Net exports ofgoods and services

(Percent)

0.50.91.50.9

1.10.80.90.8

1.01.10.2

p-0.2

289. Net interest

(Percent)

8.48.89.09.2

9.510.010.210.4

10.811.010.9(NA)

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.lIVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.



B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY

Yearand

month

1981

January . .FebruaryMarch

AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune . .

JulyAugustSeptember


Implicit price deflator,gross national product

310. Index

(1972 = 100)

190.6

193^2

19^4

2oi!o"

203.7

20616

208'.5

p2l6!7

310c. Changeover 1 quarterspans'

(Ann. rate,percent)

10,9

6.8

9.0

8.8

4.3

4.6

5.0

p4.3

Fixed-weighted price index,gross business product

311. Index

(1972-100)

197.'i

201! 2

205^7

209! 4

2ii!s

213I8

216^8

p219!i

311c, Changeover 1-quarterspans'

(Ann. rate,percent)

1 0 . 4

8.6

9.3

7.4

4.4

3.8

5.9

p 4 . 7

B PRICE MOVEMENTS

Consumer prices, all items

320. index (u)

(1967-100)

260.5263.2265.1

266.8269.0271.3

274.4276.5279.3

279.9280.7281.5

282 ,,5283,4283.1

284.3287.1290 6

292.2292.8293.3

294.1293.6292.4

320c. Changeover 1-monthspans'

(Percent)

0.81.00.6

0.40.80.7

1.10.81.1

0.40.50.4

0.30.2

-0.3

0.21.01 0

0.60.30.2

0.50.1

-0.3


(Ann. rate,percent)

10.09.38.8

9.69.3

10.4

10.59.89.3

7.26.03.2

2.83.75.1

5.75.86 7

7.25.42.6

Consumer prices, fcod

322. Index

U967-1Q0)

269 J271.0271.7

272.3272.6',273.21

275.0'276.5'278 3 ',

279,0 I279.3 -279.5 '

281.5283.2282.2

283.0285.4287 ?

287 ..0286.2287.6

288.2288.4 i288.0

322c. Changeover 1-monthspans

(Percent)

0.40.60 3

0.20.10.2

0.70.50 7

0.30.10.1

0.70.6

-0.4

0.30*8n fi

-0.1-0,30.5

0.20.1

-0 .1

322c. Changeover 6-monthspansl

(Ann. rate,percent)

6 . 64 . 63 8

4 . 34 . 14 . 9

5 . 05 . 04 7

4 . 84 . 92 . 8

2 . 94 . 45 . 6

3 . 92 . 10 Q

3 .72 . 10 . 6

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on th'e 4th month, and

1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.

84 JANUARY 1983




Yearand

month

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued

Producer prices, all commodities

330. Index @

(1967 = 100)

330c. Changeover 1-monthspans' @

(Percent)

330c. Changeover 6-monthspans' @

(Ann. rate,percent)

Producer prices, industrial commodities

335. index ©

(1967 = 100)

335c. Changeover 1-monthspans l ®

(Percent)

335c. Changeover 6-monthspans' <§)

(Ann. rate,percent)

Producer prices, crude materials

331. Index

(1967 = 100)


(Percent)

331c, Changeover 6-monthspans'

(Ann. rate,percent)

1981


AprilMayJune



1982


AprilMayJune


OctoberNovember . , .December , . .

1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember . , .


284.8287.6290.3

293.4294.1294.8

296.2296.4295.7

296.1295.5295.8

298.3298.6298.0

298.0298.6299.3

300.r3OO.299.

299,300.300.6

1.41.00.9

1.10.20.2

0.50.1-0.2

0.1-0.20.1

0.80.1-0.2

0.00.20.2

0,r-0,r-0.2

0.10.20,1

11.511.010.2

8.26.23.8

1.81.00.7

1.41.51.6

1.32.12.4

1.4rl.l1.0

1.31.20.9

291.5295.7299.6

303304305

306307307

309.0309.3310.0

311.8311.6311.0

309.9309.6310.6

312.8r313.2312.9

314.4315.1315.0

1.71.41.3

1.30.40.1

0.40.30.1

0.50.10.2

0.6-0.1-0.2

-0.4-0.1

0.3

0.7rO.l

r-0.1

0.50.20.0

15.815.613.3

10.37.95.3

3.73.03.2

3.72.92.4

0.60.20.4

0.6rl.O1.2

2.93.62.9

329.1332.1328.4

333.2333.7336.9

337.6334,328

322.7318.1313.6

319.3317.3314.7

320.1327.4327.0

323.7r321.2317.0

314.7317.4314.6

1.00.9

-1.1

1.50.21.0

0.2-0.9-1.8

-1.7-1.4-1.4

1.8-0.6-0.8

1.72.3

-0.1

-1.0r-0.8r-1.3

-0.70.9

-0.9

4.82.97.0

5.21.40.0

-6.2-9.1

-13.4

-10.5-10.0-8.2

-1.65.98.7

2.8r2.51.5

-3.3-6.0-7.4

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on page 418.IChanges are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

ICO JANUARY 1983 85Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis



Yearand

month

1981

January . . .FebruaryMarch

AprilMay . . . .June

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMay .June

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


^ H PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued

Producer

332. Index

(1967 = 100)

2 9 7 . 1298.4301.5

304.1305.7306.9

308,1309,7309.8

309.7310.6311.1

312.0311.1310.1

308.3308.8309.6

310.7r310.4

310.8

310.3311.7311.8

prices, intermediate


(Percent)

1.30.41.0

0.90.50.4

0.40.50.0

0.00.30.2

0.3-0 .3-0 .3

-0 .60.20.3

0.4r-0.1rO.l

-0.20.50.0

materials


(Ann. rate,percent)

11.610.8

9.4

7.57.75.6

3.73.22.8

2.50.90.2

- 0 . 9- 1 . 2- 1 . 0

- 0 . 8r-0.4

0.5

1.31.91.4

Producer prices, capital equipment

333. Index

(1967 = 100)

253.8256.0257.9

260.2262.0264.1

265.6267.4267.8

270.5272.5274.1

275.4274.3275.7

276.5277.5279.5

280.5r282.5

282.1

282.7283.5285.1


(Percent)

1.20.90.7

0.90.70.8

0.60.70.1

1.00.70.6

0.5-0 .40.5

0.30.40.7

0.4rO.7

r-0.1

0.20.30.6


(Ann. rate,percent)

9.910.210.8

9.59.17.8

8.18.27.7

7.55.26.0

4.53.74.0

3.7r6 .14.7

4.54.44.0

Producer1, prices, finished consumer goods

334. Index

(1967-100) <

262.7264,6267.8

270.4270.6272.0

272.9•273.3273.9

275.2276.3276.9

278,5278,2277.3

277.3276.8279.8

281.4r283.1282.7

284.2286.4286.2

334c. Changeover 1-monthspans '

(Percent)

1.20.71.2

1.00 .10.5

0.30 .10.2

0.50.40.2

0.6- 0 . 1- 0 . 3

0,0-0,21.1

0.60,6

-0.1

0.50.8

-0.1


(Ann. rate,percent)

10 .89.49.8

7.96.74.6

3.64.33.6

4.13.62.5

1.50.42 .1

2 . 1r 3 . 6

3.9

5.07 .14 ,6

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.Changes are centered within the spans: X-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6~month changes are placed <j)n the 4th month.




Year

and

month

1981

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

1982

January

February

March .

April

May

June

July .

August

September

October

November

December

1983

January . . . . . . . . .

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September . . . . . . .

October

November

December

f j j j WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjustec

Current-dollar earnings

340. Index

(1977 = 100)

133.7134.8135.7

136.6137.6138.4

139.1140.5141.4

142.0143.0143.5

144.9145.0145.4

146.3147.7148.1

148.9149.9150.1

150.8rl51,lpl51 9

340c. Changeover 1-monthspans2

(Percent)

0 .80.80.6

0.70.80.6

0.51.10 .6

0.40.70.3

1.00.10.3

0.60.90.3

0.50.60.1

r0.5r0.2pO 6


(Ann. rate,percent)

9 . 18 . 68.9

8.18.78.7

8.18.07.6

8.66.45.7

6.36.66.6

5.76.86.5

r6.2r4.7p5.2

Real earnings

341. Index

(1977 = 100)

92.892.792.7

93.093.092.9

92.292.592 .1

92.192.392.3

92.992.893.3

93.793.793.1

93.093.293.2

r93.2r93.3P94.0


(Percent)

0.2-0 .2

0.1

0.30.0

- 0 . 1

-0 .80.3

- 0 . 4

- 0 . 10.3

- 0 . 1

0.7-0 .20.6

0.4-0.1-0.7

-0.10.20.0

-0.1r0.2p0.8


(Ann. rate,percent)

- 0 , 6- 0 . 4

0.6

- 1 . 3- 0 . 3- 1 . 3

• - 2 . 0

-1.4-1.4

1.60.52.6

3.73,01.7

0.01.0

-0.2

r-1.2r-0.8

P2.1

Average hourly compensation, all employees,

nonfarm business sector

Current-dollar compensation

345. Index

(1977 = 100)

13912

141.6

144^7

147.*4

15o!l

152.3

154.7

pl57*.6

345c. Changeover 1-quarterspansz

(Ann. rate,percent)

11 .8

6.9

9.2

7.5

7.7

5.9

6.5

p 6 . 1

345c. Changeover 4-quarterspans2

(Ann. rate,percent)

9.*4

8.9

^ 8

Y.I

6^9

p6.6

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.lAdjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.2Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quar-

ter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.



B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued

Yearand

month

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued

Average hourly compensation, all employees,nonfarm business sector-Continued

Real compensation

346. Index

(1977-100)

346c, Changeover 1-quarterspans'

(Ann. rate,percent)

346c. Changeover 4-quarterspans'

(Ann, rate,percent)

Negotiated wage and benefitdecisions, all industries (§)

348. First yearaverage changes

(Ann. rate,percent)

349. Averagechanges overlife ofcontract

(Ann. rate,percent)

Output per hour, all persons, privatebusiness ssctor

370. Index

(1977 = 100)

370c, Changeovef 1-quarterspans *

(Ann. rate,percent)

370c Changeover 4-quarterspans *

(Ann. rate,percent)

358. Index ofoutput per hourall persons,nonfarmbusiness sector

(1977-100)

1981


April .May .June .



1982

JanuaryFebruary . . . .March

April . .May . ,June . .


October . . ,November .December ,

1983

January . .February .March . . .

April , . ,May . . .June . , ,

July . . . .August . .September


95.7

95.7

95.1

95.1

96.1

96.4

96.1

P97.0

O.4

- O . I

-2.5

-0.3

4.3

1.3

- 1 . 0

p3.4

-1 .2

-0.6

0.4

0.7

1.1

p2.0

7.7

11.6

10.5

11.0

rpl.9

rp2.6

rp6.5

<NA)

7.2

10.8

8.1

5.8

pi.2

P 2.1

p4.9

(NA)

100.7

100.7

101.0

100.2

100.0

100.3

rlO1.2

P1O2.2

5.6:

0.0

1.1

- 2 . 9

-1 .0

1.4

r3.6

p4.1

2.2

0.9

-0.7

-0.4

r0.2

p2.0

100.4

100.0

100.0

99.1

99.2

99.4

rlOO.3

plOO.9

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.'Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quart0r changes are placed

on the middle month of the 3d quarter.



C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune . . . .

JulyAugustSeptember


1982

January . .February . .March

AprilMay . .June

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugust . . . . . . . . .September . .


Civilian labor force

441. Total

(Thous.)

Rev ised 1

108,012108,175108,471

108,866109,101108,440

108,602108,762108,375

109,028109,254109,066

109,034109,364109,478

109,740110,378110,147

110,416110,614110,858

110,752111,042111,129

442. Em-ployed

(Thous.)

Rev ised 1

99,964100,143100,504

101,006100,968100,393

100,748100,709100,104

100,355100,229

99,677

99,68899,69599,597

99,48499,99499,681

99,58899,68399,543

99,17699,13699,093

D1 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND

Labor force participation rates

451. Males20 yearsand over

(Percent)

Revised1

79.179.179.2

79.379.478.9

78.978.978.7

78.778.778.8

78.678.778 6

78.778.978.8

78.878.779.0

78.978.978.7

452. Females20 yearsand over

(Percent)

Revised1

51.851,952.0

52.252.452.2

52.252.151.7

52.352.452.2

52.252.352 5

52.552.852.9

53.053.052.9

52.852.953.1

453. Bothsexes, 16-19years of age

(Percent)

Revised1

56.656.556.3

56.956.254.4

54.555.254.9

54.955.053.9

54.254.553 8

54.255.253.0

53.254.254.3

54.154.453.9

MAJOR COMPONENTS

Number unemployed

37. Total

(Thous.)

Revised1

8,0488,0327,967

7,8608,1338,047

7,8548,0538,271

8,6739,0259,389

9,3469,6699 881

10,25610,38410,466

10,82810,93111,315

11,57611,90612,036

444. Males20 yearsand over

(Thous.)

Revised1

3,4793,5003,439

3,3533,5403,492

3,3433,5133,559

3,8154,0264,367

4,3624,4514 607

4,7704,8185,016

5,1505,2325,578

5,7145,8655,909

445. Females20 yearsand over

(Thous.)

Revised1

2,8092,7662,765

2,7602,8462,830

2,8672,8492,953

3,0433,1053,174

3,1093,2863 402

3,5283,5683,565

3,6723,6713,710

3,8243,9894,071

446. Bothsexes, 16-19years of age

(Thous.)

Revised1

1,7601,7661,763

1,7471,7471,725

1,6441,6911,759

1,8151,8941,848

1,8751,9321 872

1,9581,9981,885

2,0062,0282,027

2,0382,0522,056

447. Full-timeworkers

(Thous.)

Revised1

6,6206,6026,541

6,4296,6176,581

6,4286,4736,762

7,1377,4427 990

7,8228,0008 346

8,5758,6898,878

9,0369,2099,622

9,94210,12710,285

448. Num-ber em-ployedpart-timefor eco-nomicreasons

(Thous.)

Revised1

4,4674,1824,222

4,1494,2424,088

4,4324,4484,612

4,9485,0055 325

5,0665,4895 611

5,7505,7315,561

5,5775,8206,495

6,4036,4116,425

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on page 51 .1See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.



GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983

January , , . , . ,FebruaryMarch

AprilMayJune . .

JulyAugust . .September

OctoberNovember , . ,December

Q | RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES

Federal Governmen

500. Surplusor deficit


-39. ' 7

-4O.*5

-56\6

- 1 O K 7

- 1 1 8 . 4

- 1 1 9 ^ 6

- 1 5 6 ^ 0

( N A )

501. Receipts


620.6

627!6

640! 2

625^7

609.' 9

617!6

613!"/

(NA)

1

502. Expendi-tures


659 Yl

6 6 7 . ' 5

6 9 8 ! 2

7 2 7 ^ 4

7 2 8 , * 3

7 3 6 \ 6

7 6 ^ 7

p 8 1 5 . * 9

State

510. Surplusor deficit


31 .*3

32 !9

33 .5

29] i

27 .7

32! i

32^3

(NA)

and local governments'

511. Receipts


410.6

4 1 5 ! 2

4 2 0 ! 3

4 2 U 5

4 2 4 ! 2

43413

440 is

(NA)

512. Expendi-tures


3 78.'6

382! 2

386! 9

392! 4

396 .*5

402! 2

408 ! 2

p414!9

ffl[ DEFENSE INDICATORS

I

517. DefenseDepartmentgross obliga-tions incurred

(Mil. dol.)

14,80815,74115,560

15,21015,69915,156

16,83617,37416,584

12,89215,67419,805

19,36120,60818,869

20,79317,78617,503

17,66916,44818,387

16,476pl8,599

(NA)

Advance measures of defense activity

525. DefensteDepartment!military primecontract 'awards ',

(Mil. del.) '

(

7,155'7,514',7 B90i

8,505!7,967<7,041'

8,845-9,5049,325 !

4,466 '9,817 i9,049 1

9,756 |13,7619,870

10,5189,657

14,296

8,6108,928

10,296

5,423(NA)

543. DefenseDepartmentgross unpaidobligationsoutstanding

(Mil. dol.)

82,08783,60884 883

84,99485,16586 126

87,96889,85791,896

91,35492,57593,827

98,818102,677105,418

108,428108,841109,654

110,8851 110,787! 111,857

1 111,866! 113,647

(NA)

548. Value ofmanufacturers'nt!W orders,defenseproducts

(Mil. dol.)

4,3415,3404 198

4,1534,8424,680

5,0105,0105,927

4,1095,0035,644

6,5737,2137,065

6,1744,7755,437

4,6848,3144,335

r5,091pll,959

See note on 1Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.lBased on national income and product accounts.

90 J A N U A R Y 1 9 8 3 ItCIIDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis



Yearand

month

DEFENSE INDICATORS-Continued

Intermediate and final measures of defense activity

557. Output ofdefense andspace equip-ment

(1967 = 100)

559. Manufac-turers' inven-tories, defenseproducts

(Mil. dol.)

561. Manufac-turers' unfilledorders, defenseproducts

(Mil. dol.)

580. DefenseDepartmentnet outlays

(Mil. dol.)

588. Manufac-turers' ship-ments, defenseproducts

(Mil. dol.)

570. Employ-ment in de-fense productsindustries

(Thous.)

Defense Departmentpersonnel

577. Military,active duty @

(Thous.)

578. Civilian,direct hireemployment ®

(Thous.)

National defensepurchases

564. Federalpurchases ofgoods andservices


565. Federalpurchases asa percent ofGNP

(Percent)

1981


AprilMayJune



1982


AprilMayJune



1983


AprilMayJune

July ,AugustSeptember . . .

OctoberNovember , . .December . . .

100.9100.5100.7

101.5102.0101.7

102.6102.8103.0

104.5105.3107.0

105.2106.5107.0

107,107,107,

109,109,109.5

rill.8rll3.6P116.0

10,91811,15411,406

11,62711,76012,155

12,16312,21712,492

12,61812,96213,154

13,33413,59813,857

13,94614,02914,227

14,20514,45914,869

15,20415,351

(NA)

63,45865,14365,468

65,85266,94067,758

68,79969,71171,650

71,70172,56073,919

76,49079,32981,905

83,80883,91484,530

84,41385,08184,557

84,452r84,593p91,388

12,63912,93212,619

12,83313,43313,264

13,88913,80914,014

14,22714,54815,298

14,15214,68915,075

15,67015,37915,334

16,31215,05016,881

15,972rl7,087pl6,679

3,4273,6553,873

3,7683,7543,863

3,9684,0993,988

4,0574,1454,285

4,0024,3744,490

4,2714,6694,821

4,8004,6474,859

4,925r4,951p5,163

1,3911,3881,390

1,3931,3931,394

1,3941,3961,396

1,3911,3841,389

1,3851,3781,376

1,3731,3691,367

1,3681,3581,360

1,356pi,356

(NA)

2,0562,0612,062

2,0602,0642,070

2,0822,0842,083

2,0902,0972,093

2,1042,1092,107

2,1062,1042,108

2,1102,1092,109

2,1082,114p2,113

973972974

980990

1,008

1,0231,017984

9981,0061,009

1,0081,0131,018

1,0221,0281,045

1,0511,043990

1,0161,0241,027

143.1

150.5

154.4

166.9

166.2

176.2

182.7

P188.9

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.6

5.5

5.8

5.9

p 6 . 1

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.



E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS

Yearand

month

1981


April . ,MayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMayJune

July . . . .AugustSeptember


1983


AprilMay .June . . .".

JulyAugustSeptember

OctoberNovember . . . . . . .December

602. Exports, excludingmilitary aid shipments,total

(Mil.dol.)

18,90219,78821,278

19,78618,89919,750

19,28919,03119,551

19,16319,15318,885

18,73718,70418,602

17,84318,21818,822

18.02617,49817,387

16,69815,693

(NA)

604. Exports of agri-cultural products

(Mil.dol.)

4,2953,9774,201

3,6043,7083,256

3,0893,2023,563

3,7353,4423,220

3,2583,5903,225

3,4003,5273,332

2,7892,7632,648

2,6812,783

(NA)

Q | MERCHANDISE TRADE

606. Exports of non-electrical machinery

(Mil.dol.)

4,0584,1554,352

4,3114,1604,388

4,5676,2074,559

4,3384,3664,005

4,3464,0543,997

3,9323,9574,211

4,3053,8564,197

3,8293,686

(NA)

612. General imports,total

(Mil.dol,)

22,61621,91621,029

22,24921,23222,005

20,11423,24221,274

23,07722,50819,746

22,82919,09020,349

17,38720,55821,310

19,55923,49420,644

21,09618,936

(NA)

614. Imports of'petroleum andpetroleum products

(Mil. dol.)

7,3$98,0185,9^2

6,9196,3296,52^

5,4066,33$5,70$

6,1236,4834,636i

6s8104,3964,290

3,5604,0274,8?3

5,9295,9134,699

5,7334,778

(NA)

616. Imports ofautomobiles and parts

(Mil. dol,)

2,2641,7422,125

2,0422,2992,257

2,1082,6351,943

2,4642,2392,164

2,3892,1352,596

2,2642,8962,679

2,4392,9932,353

2,5512,081

(NA)

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

92 JANUARY 1983



E U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember

OctoberNovemberOecember

1982


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983

JanuaryFebruaryMarch . .

AprilMayJune . .

JulyAugust .September

OctoberNovemberOecember

Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)

Goods and services

667. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

4,667

2,909

2.559

943

3J23

3,97i

p-2,574

(NA)

668. Exports

(Mil. dol,)

93,280

94,389

92,965

92,259

90,193

91,266

p88,058

(NA)

669. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

88,613

91,480

90,406

91,316

87,070

87,295

p90,632

(NA)

Merchandise, adjusted *

622. Balance

(Mil. dol.)

-4,312

-6,547

-7,845

-9,i85

-5,873

-5,695

p-12,458

(NA)

618. Exports

(Mil. dol.)

60,683

60,284

57,694

57,593

55,780

55,174

p52,480

(NA)

620. Imports

(Mil. dol.)

64,995

66,83i

65,539

66,778

61,653

60,869

p64,938

(NA)

Income on

651. U.S. invest-ments abroad

(Mil. dol.)

20,528

21,642

22,048

21,727

20,890

22,562

p21,880

(NA)

investments

652, Foreigninvestments inthe UnitedStates

(Mil. dol.)

12,405

13,441

13,865

13,198

14,029

14,874

pl4,462

(NA)

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.1Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military

of Defense purchases (imports).grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department



F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1983


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


47. United States,index of indus-trial production

( 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 )

151.4151.8152.1

151.9152.7152.9

153.9153.6151.6

149.1146.3143.4

140.7142.9141.7

140.2139.2138 7

138.8138.4137.3

rl35.8rl34.8p!34.7

721. OECD1

European coun-tries, index ofindustrialproduction

(1967 = 100)

154159158

156156155

158152158

158158156

156159158

158156154

rl51rl48151

(NA)

728. Japan,index of indus-trial production

(1967 = 100)

237.2237.0237.7

238.0235.2240.7

243.1240.7245.6

248.3248.4247.1

245.8244.0247.1

242.6238.3?ta 1

245.0244.32 4 7 . 1

p241.0(NA)

Q | INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

725. WestGermany, indexof industrialproduction

(1967 = 100)

1561641150

160160156

157157160

1601571515

157161161

160157154

149154152

pl50(NA)

726. France,index of indus-trial production

(1967 = 100)

156159157

156159160

157157160

160160163

156156157

156159159

rl52rl52

154

pl56(NA)

722. UnitedKingdom, indexof industrialproduction

(1967-100)

116117117

117116118

118118120

121120118

118rll8120

120rl20118

120120120

pl2O(NA)

727. Italy, indexof industrialproduction

(1967 = 100)

158.6170.3169.3

168.4158.0159.8

165.2137.2164.1

160.2170.8160.3

161.7173.4168.5

167.5161.81R^ ^

157.6137.3154.6

i.151.4(NA)

723. Canada,index of indus-trial production

(1967-100)

163.8166.0168.0

169.7170.2172.7

170.4164.5163.8

161.3158.4157.2

156,, 1154.8152.4

150.7151.9148 1

143.9149.8

rl44.7

rl39.5P140.0

(NA)

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.lOrganization fox Economic Cooperation and Development.

94 JANUARY 1983 BCDDigitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis


F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Yearand

month

CONSUMER PRICES

United States

320. Index ©

(1967 = 100)

320c. Changeover 6-monthspans l

(Ann. rate,percent)

Japan

738. Index ®

(1967 = 100)

738c. Changeover 6-monthspans*

(Ann. rate,percent)

West Germany

735. Index <g>

(1967 = 100)


(Ann. rate,percent)

France

736. Index <§)

(1967 = 100)


(Ann. rate,percent)

United Kingdom

732. Index ®

(1967 = 100)

732c. Changeover 6-monthspans *

(Ann. rate,percent)

1981


AprilMayJune



1982

JanuaryFebruary . . . .March

AprilMayJune



1983


AprilMayJune



260.5263.2265.1

266.8269.0271.3

274,276,279,

279,9280,7281.5

282.5283.4283.1

284.3287.1290.6

292.2292.8293.3

294.1293.6292.4

10.09.38.8

9.69.3

10.4

10.59.89.1

7.26.03.2

2.83.75.1

5.75.86.7

7.25.42.6

291.1290.8292.2

294.5297.0297.3

296.4294.7299.5

300.7299.8299.8

300.7299.8300.4

302.9303.8303.8

301.5303.8309.1

310.0306.6

(NA)

4.43.13.8

2.62.93.2

3.94.14.2

4.03.32.4

1.90.50.1

-0.52.94.0

4.44.1

(NA)

180.9182.3183.5

184.7185.4186.3

187.1187.7188.6

189.2190.1190.7

192.3192.8193.1

194.0195,197,

197.6197.3197.9

198.5198.9

(NA)

6.66.25.7

6.36.76.9

6.97.16.9

6.34.83.5

3.03.54.9

4.95.46.3

6.85.9

(NA)

312.7315.6318.8

323.1326.0329.2

334.9339.0342.9

347.1350.3352.4

356.0359.6363.8

368.2371.1373.7

374.7375.9377.5

379.5383.2

(NA)

13.213.013.0

13.814.315.3

14.15,15.

13.913.613.0

13.012.012.0

9.98.27.2

5.86.9

(NA)

445.5449.5456.2

469,472,475,

477.3480.8483.5

487.9493.0496.1

499.0499.1503.5

513.6517.3518.9

518.9519.0518.7

521.3523.9

(NA)

13.012.111.6

12.512.110.7

10.411.812.5

11.59.9

10.0

8.47.36.0

6.06.04.7

5.35 .3

(NA)

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.1Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.



F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued

Yearand

month

1981


AprilMayJune

JulyAugustSeptember


1982


AprilMayJune

July . .AugustSeptember


1983


AprilMay . . . .June

JulyAugustSeptember

OctoberNovemberDeoember

1Q j CONSUMER

Italy

737, Index ®

(1967 = 100)

440.7449.1455.4

461.3468.7473.9

477.7481.0487.7

497.5506.0511.1

517.7524.4529.1

533.9539.8545.2

553.4563.4571.3

582.7590.3

(NA)


(Ann. rate,percent)

20.120.119.3

18.918.216.8

17.716.817.0

15.815.315.6

13.813.613.1

15.919.018.7

20.619.8(NA)

PRICES—Continued

Canada

733. Index <§>

(1967 = 100)

2 5 9 . 12 6 1 . 7265.2

267.2269.6273.8

276.2278.2280.2

283.0285.4286.7

288.7292.1295.8

297.5301.5304.5

306.1307.6309.2

311.2313.3

(NA)


(Ann. rate,percent)

13.112.213.2

12.312.311.9

12.212.211.0

10.610.911.2

10.511.411.4

11.110.29.5

9.48.2

(NA)

Q | STOCK PRICES

19. UnitedStates, indexof stockprices, 500commonstocks ®

(1967 = 100)

144.6139.7144.9

146.2143.3143.9

140.5141.0128.7

130.3133.7134.7

127.6124.6120.6

126.5126.6119.7

119.0119.3133.2

144.3150.2151.6

P157.3

748. Japan,index ofstockprices (g)

(1967 = 100)

457.9458.2467.3

494.6502.8515.2

534.4540.7511.3

493.8505.6512.7

518.9516.9486.2

484.5503.4489.6

480.8474.3481.6

490.4512.7528.2

p<>36.4

745. WestGermany,index ofstockprices @

(1967 = 100)

1 1 5 . 3114.0116.3

122.7122.1126.1

127.5122.5122.5

118.8118.0117.7

116.8118.4120.1

120.6117.6114.2

113.5112.3115.6

118.2118.8124.3

P125.0

746. France,index ofstockprices (g)

(1967 = 100)

191.1201.1209.4

197.7162.51.52.3

168.9177.4176.5

163.9169.2170.7

185.7193.1145.9

184.8183.3166.3

161.1169.3168.4

170.7rpl74.2rpl75.7

P180.5

742 UnitedKingdom,index .ofstock ',prices', @

(1967^100)

259.0269,. 0273', 2

293,2295,6289,0

284.',8298.6278.9

259.5278.0284.1

291.1300.1298.8

303.2315.4314.6

313.2320.1343.5

360.7372.0

rp364.8

P372.3

747. Italy,index ofstockprices @

(1967-100)

110.0122.1125.9

132.4135.9123,5

99.1112.099.1

91.293.896.9

95.098.8

104.2

96.791.083.1

78 ,,486.185.8

86.487.6

rp88.6

P103.2

743. Canada,index ofstockprices (§)

(1967-100)

223.7218.6233.9

232.3245.7242.9

232.3231.6192.3

190.4208.9201.2

185.3176.7173.1

171,2168.4153.8

156.8177.4177.3

192.6189.7

rpl93.1

P21G.3

See note on page 80.Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.1Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.


C. Historical Data for Selected Series

Year 1 Q II Q Ml Q IV Q1 1 . NEWLY APPROVED CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS, 1,000

MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS (BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

1948194919501 9 5 1 . . . .1 9 5 2 . . . .1 9 5 3 . . . .19541 9 5 5 . . . .1 9 5 6 . . . .19571958195919601961.1 9 6 2 . . . .1 9 6 3 . . . .1 9 6 4 . . . .1965. . . .1966196719681 9 6 9 . . . .197019711972197319741975197619771978. . .1 9 7 9 . . . .19801 9 8 1 . . . .1982

1.771 862 .694.043.611.952.692.872.392 .992.764.125.086.546 035 956.806.685 706 579 72

12.8611.3911 3814 5817 .0621 .4527.5027.70

965, DIFFUSION INDEX OFDEFLATED—17 INDUSTRIES

1 9 4 8 . . . .1 9 4 9 . . . .1 9 5 0 , . . .19511952195319541955 . . .1 9 5 6 . . . .1 9 5 7 . . . .195819591 9 6 0 . . . .19611962196319641965196619671 9 6 8 . . . .196919701971197219731 9 7 4 . . . ,19751976197719781979198019811982

1 9 4 9 . . . .1950195119521 9 5 3 . . . .1 9 5 4 . . . .1 9 5 5 . . . .19561 9 5 7 . . . .19581959. .19601961 . .19621 9 6 3 , . . .1964.1 9 6 5 . . . .1 9 6 6 . . . .1967196819691 9 7 0 . . . .19711972197319741975 .1976197719781979198019811982

NOTE:

2Th1s

3686595030534 55656425374744 83962505362803527564862506556

2.061 .843 .263.713.211.942.942.522.462.523 .274.665.546.775.985 727.756.485 527 09

10 9214.9810.9812.2215 0015.0621.0325.8128.06

2.291.873.903.382.432.203.132.272.722.823 .664.915.585.965.896 .357.606.325 .927 21

11.6716,3810,1811.8317 4416.0922.4724.1226.94

2.052.284.013 .432.332.233.132.712.703.153.944.346.156.025.956.647.445.865.948 .43

12.2012.6812.8714.3616. 8918.6723 .0826.1522.99

NEW CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS,(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-Q SPANS)

77536236424580

624265717448454 856424271535348627771421853

(INDEX:

•

38 539.639 242 543.344 .344 . 745.546 948 .949.550 .451 551 652.453.253 754,655.457.659.562.165.168.270.872 .577.688 .293.097.6

103.4112.7123.6136.5

Unless o therwise notec

1977=100)

38 739.439 54? 743.244.445.045.747 . 249.149.550 ,851,551.952.653 .253 .854.656.257.760.262.966.169.171.173.480.589 .193.699.3

106.0115.4127.2138,9

50397733307459277465655665274 865423677535947304556594 82733

BUSINESe

39 539.440 542 843.444.644.946.147 .849.549.751.051.752 .152.753.354 .154.956.458.360.663.766.469.771.374.282.990 .595.0

100.9108.3117 .9129.9142.3

, these series contain ncns beginning with 1948.ns beqinninq with 1949.

3662425353623362487165394545654 842334862532968594550535330

PRODUCT'

39 739.341 . 243.144.244.345.346.648.349.550.051.251.752.053.053.654.155.057.258.861.464.467.670.172.176.085.592.196.6

102.1110.5119.8132.7145.5

Annual

TOTAL

8.177 .85

13.8614.5611,588.32

11.8910.3710.2711.4813.6318,0322,3525.2923.8524.6629.5925.3423.0829. 3044.5156.9045.4249.7963.9166.8888.03

103.58105.69

AVERAGE

486745445356426058595564485250504055626 14143565650484143

AVERAGE

39 .13 9 . 440 .142 .843.544.445.046.047.649.249.750.851.651.952.753.353.954.856.358.160.463.366.369.371 .374.081.690.094.6

100.0107.0116.4128.4140.8

revisions but are reprinted forCurrent data for this series areCurrent data for this series are

Year IQ H Q III Q97 . BACKLOG OF CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS,

MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS (BILLIONS OF

19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

5.815.255.46

11 .1511.957.947.529.508.138.318.56

11.3314.8319.0019 .9820.0321.4023.1320.2019.4226.0339.8449.1046.0749.2859.7167.5282.3693.44

5,664.886,62

11.8211.48

7.248.139.097.968.199,05

12.4115.9120.2119.8319.9322.7122.5019.4820.4029.6244.8047.5946.3950.6859.9569.8086.3896.18

965, DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEW CAPITALDEFLATED—17 INDUSTRIES (PCT. RISING,

19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958195919601961196219631964196519661967196819691970197119721973197419751976 . . . .1977. .19781979198019811982

UNIT LABOR

19481949195019511952. . .1953195419551956195719581959I9601961196219631964196519661967196819691970.197119721973197419751976197719781979198019811982

417242445064346453616263484654524251596 44834586048484 149

COST, ALL

486745445356426059595564485150504055626241435656504 84 143

PERSONS. NONFARM(INDEX: 1977=100)

38.339.238.540.942.343.945.444.746.748.950.549.951 .452.952.352.952 .853.153.856.758.361.566.868.871.472.980,290.792.998.0

105.1114.7127.(3139.0

the convenience of the user,shown on page 105.shown on oaa& 105.

3 8 . 13 9 . 038.541 .842.444.245.444.747.349.450.249.952.252.452.952.552.953,255.056.758.962.767.169.771.574.583.290. 194.099.1

106.4118.0132.5141.9

5.764.658.26

11.9710.307.098.818.508.078.169.66

13.6916.7820.2819.8920.2823.2321.7119.2921.4033.3650.0145.3445.8953.9460.7873.2588.1297.34

IV Q1,000DOLLARS)

5.614.829.85

11.929.137.079.418.418.078.54

10.4813.9617.9220.2119.8620.8523.4420.8618,8923 .2837,1149.7946.4547.5356.4963.3776,4790.7392,74

APPROPRIATIONS,4-0 MOVING AVERAGE)

'so60604339595445605562606442495648415767503950536047S23941

4462534539674252556164615841505844416462503854574850464834

BUSINESS SECTOR2

39.138-538.741.542.944.545.045.148.049.750.251.052.552.352.652.553.153.355.457.159.463.967.569.971.776.186.190.195.8

100.3108.9121.4134.7145.1

38.939.039.541.743.645.145.045.848.550.049.851.352.952.052.553.053.453.255.957.460.665.268.970.372.177.788.592.297.7

102.4111.3124.1136.8149.0

Annual

END OF PERIOD

5.614,829,85

11.929.137.079.418.418.078.54

10.4813.9617.9220.2119.8620.8523.4420.8618.0923.2837.1149.7946,4547.5356.4963.3776.4790.7392.74

AVERAGE

53634442575443605762606245495448415762564245565649484242

AVERAGE

38.638.938.841.542.844.445.245.147.649,550.250.552.252.452.652.753.053.255.057.059.363.367.669.771.775.384.590.895.1

100.0107.9119.6133.0143.8

{JANUARY 1983)


C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued

Year

1948...1949...1950..,1951...1952. ..1953...1954. ..

1956. ..1957. . .1958. ..1959. ..I960.. .1961...1962.. .1963.. .1964.. .1965...1966...1967. ..1968. ..1969. . .1970.. .1971...1972...1973...1974..,1975...1976...1977...1978...1979...1980...1981...1982...

1949 . , .1950...1951. . .1952...1953...1954...1955...1956...1957...1958...1959...1960...1961...1962...1963...1964..,1965...1966...1967...1968...1969...1970.,.1971...1972...1973...1974...1975...1976...1977...1978...1979...1980...1981...1982...

1948, . .1949...1950...1951...1952...1953 . ..1954...19551956...1957...1958...1959. . .1960...1961 ..196 2..,1963. . .1964...1965...1966...1967.,.1968...1969...1970...1971. . .:,972 . . .

J974,..1975..,1976, .,1977...

1979. . .1980...1381...1382. . .

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May77. RATIO, CONSTANT-DOLLAR INVENTORIES

1.49 1.501.56 X.571.53 1.491.44 1.491.69 1.671.60 1.581.70 1.671.52 1.511.50 1.531.55 1.541.64 1.661.53 1.511.52 1.541.63 1.631.53 1.531.55 1.541.52 1.531.50 1.501.48 1.491,60 1.621.60 1.611.61 1.621.67 1.671.69 1.681.61 1.621.50 1.501.57 1.581.74 1.721.66 1.651.62 1.611.65 1.621.63 1.641.64 1.651.65 1.65

1.501.571.481.541.691.571.671.491.531.551.S81.501.561.591.521.541.541.481.481.621.601.611.691.681.601.501.571.761.651.6C1.631.611.701.65

1.501.571.471.591.671.591.65

1.541.501.681.491.551.601.521.531,521.481.501.631.611.611.711.671.591.521.571.731.641.601.601.651.751 .66

604. EXPORTS 0

228 349547 554569 542579 573186 246541 569680 633766 703

1,111 1,1421,774 1,8292,369 1,8301,917 1,6301,762 2,0041,818 2,0582,531 2,4443,442 3,4844,295 3,977

662594526518490533658606

1,2681,8691,7031,6682,1122,3632,6093,3254,201

June July Aug.TO SALES, MANUFACTURING

(RATIO)

1.521 .591,451,601.641.601.67

1.551.581.661.491.581.581.531.541.501.501.521.631.611.621.691.671.591 .531.581.711.651.611.601.621.771.68

1.521 .551 .411.631 .651.631.64

1.551.571.631.491.591.551.551.541 .521.511.521.621.601.631.691.651.591.541 .591.691.651.601.611 .651,761.67

1.531.601.291.681.681.621.64

1,631.581.611.511.601.581.551.521 .501.491.541.631.591.621.691.661.591.521.601.681.651.611.621.651.731.68

1.531.571.301.661.651.651.64

1.581.581.581.561.601.551.541.541.501.511.541.621.621.631,711.671.571.561.611.671.651.611.611.651.741.71

=• DOMESTIC AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

550550526528609565636628

1,2511,9781,7231,8922,1422,4282,5403,3293,604

538552542491576566623722

1,4121,8821,5751,9502,3602,8612,5973,3263,708

550572539475526612624771

1,4421,0061,4801,9482,0772,9042,8283,0853,256

Sept. Oct.AND TRADE, TOTAL1

1.531.551.411.671.621.661.63

1.581.611.581.551.591.551.561.541.501.511.561.631.611.631.711.661.571.561.631.661.671.621.621.651.701.72

595531512503541614632754

1,3701,8421,7352,0391,9762,3922,9543,2863,089

500624513544494610636796

1,7311,6981,8722,0581,8012,7743,0193,5573,202

606. EXPORTS OF NONELECTRICAL MACHINERY

230 322435 439521 502523 530408 437620 678732 691775 780800 911

1,155 1,1971,672 1,6321,780 1,8171,831 1,8922,084 2,1872,682 2,8323,297 3,4544,058 4,155

400470490438622647724773925

1,2701,6261,8061,8592,4502,9173,4234,352

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

456433494539647651720757926

1, 2881,7601,8181,8082,4152,7063,5714,311

432448508519622680600767

1,3381,7201,8361,8352,4722,8593,6204, 160

435468498515594718700783

1,3391, 7721,8711,868

3,0343,9434, 386

515601523509518639066837

1,7261,6541,9322,1602,0642,5123,0323,5963,563

426484485526608755686776

1, 3981, 7701,9521,862

3^0223,9854,567 ,

433457476557652706663814

1,5091,7521,6751,732

3,2414,2306,207

414473497573616718871810

1,4011,7501,8832,133

3,1534,0274,559

1.531.591.451.671.581.661.62

1.561.601.561.551.601.531.551.531.531,501.571.641.601.621.731.671.551,541.671.661.681.611.611.661.681.77

Nov.

1.541.561.521.681,601.691.58

1.561.621.541.551.621.521.531.561.521.491.591.611.601.641.761.641.531.531.701.651.651.611.611.671.671.70

Dec.

1.521.551,451 .711.571.711.54

1.551.661.591.531.611.521.561.531.401.491.601.581.611.651.711.631.511.571.751.631.631.611.621.661.661.78

562595507441612694447882

1,7061,6912 „ 0602,2311,6542,5963,3093,4853,735

5415805.60516565628546927

1, 7691,9781,8211,7501,7552,5333,4593,4643,442

591580522569551689768

1,0071,7851,9221,7761,8602,1112,5553,3113,8383,220

47249145851267870558278L

1,5521,8141,0211,556

3,2514,1174,338

450475510586657701672862

1,6241,7701,8141, 791

3,1723,9684,366

4634865205186 30720783060

1,5231,0431,9832,056

3,'2403,8194,005

IQ

1.501.571.501.491,681.581.68

1. 521.551.661.511.541.621.531.1541.531 .491.481.611 .601.611,681.681.611.501,571.741,651.611.631.631 .661.65

H Q

AVI;

1.511.571 .441.611,651,611.63

1.551.581.661.491.571.581.531.541.511 .501.511.631 .611.621.701.661.591.531.581.711.65

1.6G1.641.761.67

HI Q

>Mlt, FOR

'1.53'i .57'1.33H. 67'1.6')il. 6 4

;;. 64

I. GO\ . 39J.39

1 . ftO

1 , P 6

l'.SS

1.53

l'.SOI1.50r.551L63116111631J701J 6(i

1 j «J8

i ,'! J 51 .i61

i.,67

i .ibti

r,. JS 21.651 . ̂ 2

I.701

IV Q

»BRIt)»

:..53:. .57] .471.6?1.581.691.30

1.561.631..561.54l.fil1.521.551.541.511.491.591.311 . t-'JO

1 . Ci4

1 . '3

1. (»5

1.S2

1 . *f I

1.651.651.611.611 . (>S1 .t»7

1 . 1 ih

TOTAL FOli K*ERIOD

i

1

i

L ,239L,695L,637L,670

922L,643L,9712,0753,5215,4725,9025,2155,8786,2397,584

10,25112,473

11

245456879

10

,638,674,607,494,711,743,883,121,105,666,778,790,579,193,965,740, 568

1,610'1,736'1, 5<-8'1,5361l,553i1,863 12,134 12,38? 14,827 ,5 ,,194 ,5,539 ,6,2 575,S4;17,6789,COB '

10,439 '9,854 '

1,6941,7551,5891,5261,7282,0111,7612,8165,2605,5915,6573,8415,5207,684

10,07910,78710,397

TOTAL FOK PERIOD

1,0321,3441,5131,4911,4671,9532,1472,328

3,6224,9305,4035, 502

8,43110,17412,565

]1111222

3555

81112

,323,349,500,573,863,049,100, 307

,965,252,525511

599134859

1,2731,4141,4581,6561,8762,1792,2202,408

4,308^,2725,510S,7277,7949,416

12,24215,333

,1,3851,4521,4881,6161,965'2,206'2,037'2, 503

4,6995,427•5,618p ,403£,1117

11, W412.7C9

- J

Annual

:. 52. 1 . i •'

: .44; ,(>]

] .641 .63XAIA

1.5fi1.581,621.521. 5R1.571.541..541.511.501.531.621.601.621.703 .(56

1 . »3

1 ,U2j , t,g

L.(>5

'. . (<2

.'l A. 4

.! . 70I .70

•> 4 " ' i

\ V i!'.*, »7

4 , )4I

2,H4i

4 1 7n4, Od

j 'V

E. ,1 24

f.'. ^

<) -.11

b,. .wl

{.,>• 'A

i , \ '0(.,;• I

l t ;i \ "

?,i <»(.(t,4t'7

17, Mil21,*)' )21 , ttt ')

2 ? , < ( > it

23,t ,>

29,3. \

34, 7s, 1

41,2'm4 i,2(i.

5,0135,5 59

6,3367, 111B.'MVf

6,5049, Mf.

16,6 74

20,0812 2,056

22,22;i

29,99*1

36, ,10ft

45,4f>4:33, 4UC

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.1This series contains revisions beginning with 1959.

(JANUARY



Year Jan.

1948. .

1950,..1951195219531954...195519561957...19581959I960...19611962...1963...

1965...1966...1967. . .1968...1969. ..1970...1971.. .1972. ..1973...1974...1975...1976.. .1977..1978..1979..1980..1981..1982..

Feb. Mar.614.

162162185192208226219332462

1,1673,0802,4753,2173,0003,5805,6147,359

1948..,

1950...19511952

1954

1962...1963...1964...1965...1966...1967...1968...1969...1970..,1971...1972...1973...1974...1975...1976...1977...1978...1979...1980...1981...1982. ..

165174172187206252220334456

1,5121, 7812,3383,3703,6263,6347,7418,018

171183172179182237249342492

1,5601, 2112,3614,1913,0943,6676,9915,992

Apr. May JuneIMPORTS OF PETROLEUM AND

(MILLIONS

JulyPETROLEUM

OF DOLLARS)

188 166162 179183 206182 180235 215237 203250 270324 331487 550

2,299 2,1172,387 1,7462,494 2,1183,611 3,1923,162 3,0383,832 4,0005,185 7,1916,919 6,329

209187167194203229276346508

2,0631,3542,5633,7343,2294,1996,6116,521

Aug. Sept.PRODUCTS

150191162228215200288350520

2,3061,9902,8873,4153,1944,6925,1535,400

170201155182211234293352703

2,2742,0082,8603,2663,2574,9496,0186,335

616. IMPORTS OF AUTOMOBILES AND PARTS

31106176299293417482589780862742

1,0851,0831,5291,9631,8992,264

721.

1951...1952...1953. ..

1955...1956,..1957...1958. ..1959...

1961...1962...1963...1964...

1966...1967...1968...1969..1970..1971..1972..1973..1974..1975..1976,.1977..1978..1979.,1980..1981..1982,.

54114161273315404541662731877654

1,0411,2481,6611,7062,0351,742

61125169229325404561680753797823

1,1171,2991,5811,5891,9602,125

ORGANIZATION FOR

(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)

89 54108 113159 184260 329399 392457 388533 529647 680725 814898 901776 731

1,221 9761,266 1,1831,715 1,6591,956 1,8511,710 1,9992,042 2,299

59123197292383428576636821841782

1,1691,3601,6841,7301,8432,257

ECONOMIC COOPERATION AN!INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL

39

4759636465

75798290

9798

102114121127129140147137139151150154163154

39

4757636465

76

eo8290

9898

103I:L4

124127128141147137141150148155163159

40

4859636565

7880

eo90

9998

103114124125131141147136143151148156163158

176178160213218221314387700

2,2002,5152,7163,4363,3075,6624,9825, 709

64130201314391419525602806928079

1,0251,3151,8121,8152,1032,108

49146183294401332660699749859938

1,0551,3281,6662,1132,1392,635

74157176334438498672622722912861

1,2381,4281,8221,8492,2701,943

Oct. Nov. Dec.

173173173210223231286390787

2,2812,3202,8343,3863,3476,0505,8766,123

17019117219920723333S406942

2,3082,1402,9683,4103,4895,3516,0516,483

192154179198238256335416972

2,3352,3603,0513,2333,5806,5026,2544,636

84139206346443446549681858809888871

1,4261,8721,8052,1892,464

DEVELOPMENT, EUROPEAN COUNTRIES—PRODUCTION (1967=100)

40 40

48 4860 6063 6364 6467 68

78 7680 8083 8490 90

98 9999 98105 101117 117124 124127 125132 132141 144148 150135 133144 146148 148151 150156 159163 158156 156

40

5160646468

78808491

9999

103118124127133144148135146148150158159155

41

5062646468

78828791

99101107120125128132143148135146140151162161158

41

5162646569

78828790

9999

110120124127135147147135146150151159154152

42

5262646469

78838791

99101110118125128135146146135148150154159155158

93144211371421438579768840812873

1,1281,4651,8751,9842,3142,239

95213231365428426642694631814

1,0131,2211,4791,8221,8711,8972,164

42

5162646472

79028793

99102110118125128137147144137148147154161156158

43

5262646572

79838893

98102112120125128137147141139150148155162156158

43

5262646572

80838793

99105113120125127141147137140150148155162156156

IQ II Q III Q IV Q

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

498519529558596715683

1,0081,4104,2396,0727,17410,7789,720

10,08120,34621,369

563528556556653669796

1,0011,6256,4795,4877,175

10,5379,42912,03118,98719,769

496 535570 518477 524623 607644 668655 720895 956

1,089 1,2121,923 2,7016,780 6,9246,513 6,8208,463 8,85310,117 10,0299,758 10,42415,303 17,90316,153 18,18117,444 17,242

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

146345506801933

1,2251,5841,9312,2642,5362,2193,2433,6304,7715,2585,8946,131

202344540881

1,1741,2731,6381,9632,3602,6402,2893,3663,8095,0585,5375,5526,598

187 272433 496560 648942 1,082

1,230 1,2921,249 1,3101,857 1,7701,923 2,1432,277 2,3292,699 2,4352,678 2,7743,318 3,2204,071 4,3705,300 5,5695,777 5,6606,512 6,4006,686 6,867

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

39434758636465

76808190949898

103114123126129141147137141151149155163157

40444960636460

77000490959999

103117124126132143149134145140150158160156

41 4345 4651 5262 6264 6464 6569 7276 7878 7962 8387 8791 9396 9799 99100 103109 112119 119125 125128 120134 138145 147147 141135 139147 149149 148152 155160 162157 1561S6 157

Annual

2,0922,1272,0862,3432,5602,7643,3234,3007,614

24,27024,01431,79041,52639,10456,03673,77175,024

8071,6182,2543,7064,6295,0576,8497,9609,23010,3109,96013,14715,88020,69822,23224,35826,282

4145506164646876788185919599

100107118124127134144146136146149151159159156

MOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. (JANUARY 1983)



Year

1948...1949...1950. ..1951...1952. ..1953. . .1954...1955...1956...1957...1950...1959...1960...1961...1962. . .1963...1964.. .1965...1966...1967...1968. .,1969. ..1970...1971.. .1972...1973...1974...1975. ..1976..„1977...1978...1979. .,1980...1931...1982...

1948. ..1949...1950. . .1951. ..1952.. .1953, ..1954..,1955.. .1956. ..1957...1958...1959...1960,. .1961...1962,..1963...1964.. .1965.. .1966...1967...1968. ..1969. ..1970...1971.. .1972...1973. ..1974...1975.. .1976...1977...1978...1979.,.1980...1981. ..1982...

1948. ..1949. ..1950...1951.. .1952...1953. ..1,954...1955.. .1956. ..:.957. ..1958. . .J959...1960...1961...1962. ..1963...1964...1965. ..1966., .1367. ..

l'J68. . •1969...1970..,1971...1SI72. . .1S'73. ..19 74. .,1975...1976...1977...1978...1979...1930...19131. . .

19112...

Jan. Feb.

52 5255 5560 6063 6463 6363 6369 6873 7373 7373 7574 7575 7583 8384 8483 8482 8492 9398 98100 10098 99104 105108 109.108 110112 109108 99122 121114 114118 117113 114123 123125 124122 132130 128116 117

33.7 33.735.5 35.235.9 36,541.8 41.841.9 41.8

46.6 47.249.0 49.254.8 54.858.3 59.356.7 S7.360.2 61.465.9 65.364.8 64.769.5 69.873.0 73.680.8 82.287.7 87.096.0 96.899.4 98.2101.6 101.2109.9 111.7114.7 116.1115.3 116.2125.1 123.4137.3 141.2149.5 149.9138.8 139.4141.9 142.9151.3 149.3151.2 152.6164.4 165.1166.2 163.8163.8 166.0

13 1422 2326 2634 3537 3638 39

55<66€E7^

i 52) 58I 63> 65) 66I 74

83 8387 8687 8694 97103 103105 10599 98102 103120 121130 132138 135135 135146 149

135 135142 146150 150154 149154 154164 167156 164

Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.722. UNITED PCINGDOM—INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

545660656464697573737674848484859396

10099

106109112108109122117115115123123133125117-

535661646164697473737377838484879598

100100106110110110112122122114116122128132124117

(1967=100)

5257616461657075727574778483858895

10010099

107110109112114122123113118125126134124116

723. CANADA—INDEX

33,835.536.542.142.5

46.550.155.859,757.261,465.964.370.874.S81.588.996.898.1

102.3113.8114.4116.7124.9142.8150.5137.5145.4150.0151.9164.3166.3168.0

34.535.336.742.542.5

46.250.157.158.757.862.763.865.571.274.582.088,597.099,0104.3113.2113.1116.9128.1141.5147.a138.8146.9148.6X55.3163.3163.0169.7

52586065616270737375747783848588969799

100107112110110114124123113116120128136124118

536261645964707373757377838585909597

100100107112110110113123123112116122128134123118

53586164596470727275737784848589959810099

107109110110114123123110116123129130120118

OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1

(1967=100)

34.335,737.042.543.3

46.051.356.558.758.362,464.365.972.075.682.188 ( 797.099.0

106.1112.5113.8118.6127.0141.9150.0136.1149.2150.4153.4166.3159.0170.2

34.035.538.142,443,3

46.351,857.658.557.862.663.966.872.676.082.689.397.299.3

106.7112.1112.4119.6128.6142.8148.3137.7147.4151.9156.0165.6158.9172.7

34.135.538.941,743.1

46.051.958.258.558.362.963.067.773.775 .582.290.996.8

100,2106.9113,6113.1119.8128.6145.8147.8139.7147.4150.8154.6167.5159.7170.4

34.636.238.242 .344.4

46.953.157.858.858.262.963.567.372.675.582.889.595.3

101,8107.6112.0113.6123.1128.7141.8147.8138.6148.7151.1154.8167 .3159.4164. S

545762646065717473757380848387889699

100100107109110109116123121113117123128129118120

34.935.839.841.644.7

46.453.258.357.657.964.264.168.473.978.284.791.597.5101.3108.3112.7112.7123.7131.7143.3146.0138.9148.9150.4159.0167.2163.0163.8

725. WEST GERMANY—INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

1423273537404454586266687684868897

10210898

105123132135139146

135143152148157164160

1423283637414552596363687784869097

10310599

.106:i23134135139148

135146149150157164160

(1967=100)

152329363640

5461636570768187909410210597

108124134134139149

134146149149161161160

142429353741

55596366697781879098

10210699

109126132135139148

134148150152163160156

162430363742

57616365698084879199102105102

109126134135138142

132146148153164161157

172531353842

57626368727783909298

103103101

128132132139150

135148150154163157157

182532353843

58616565727984909199

105103102

127132135139149143135149152156161157160

Oct.

535763636268727673747381848484919710099100106108112109117124120114120122125130118121

35.135.940.341.545.4

47.053.758.857.058.265.5(54.368.773.378.4£14.593.198.6100,4109.1112.0112.9124.2134.11415.2146.2137.4145.3150.7159.0166.6163.5161.3

19253336394340586165657481838092

101103103103

130134135141148142138148149154163160160

Nov.

54596363636772757375748284830492979997

101107110110109118123120114121122126132117120

35.235.840.741.345,745.847.154.059.15?.l59.463.963.969.173.279.385.994.098.1101.8109.9113.3114.2123.2135.6147.2144.0140.5148.8151.3160.9165.7164.9158.4

19253336404348586265667380839092

101103102105

131132132143149142139149150156164157157

Dec.

5660636363677276737375828484849298

10098

104108112112110120122117113121123129131117118

35.236.441.241.145.946.648.254.759.357.259.764.363,769.473.280.386.795,798.4102.2109.0115.1114.4124.5236.3147.0143.8143.0149.5151.9164.7163-8165.6157.2

20263436394450596165667381868891

102105102110119130134130145149135141149153156164156156

IQ

53556064636 3697473747575838484849397

10099

105109110110105122115117114123124129128117

33,735.436.341.942.146,846.649.455 ,159.157.161.065.764.670.073.781.587.996.S98.6

101.7111.8115.1116.1124.5140.4

150.0138.6143.4150.2151.9164.6165.4165.9

142326353739

53586265677533068796

10310690

103121131136136147147135144151150155165160

II Q III Q IV Q

AVERAGE*FOR PERIOD

525761S46164707473747477838485889598100100107111110111113123123113117122127134124117

i S3 54' S9 59i 61 63i 64 63i 59 63i 64 67i 70 72' 73 76i 73 73i 75 74i 73 7417t) 82!84 i)4

184 (148̂6 (14'09 22'95 97198 1001D0 981(00 102107 107

mo noi|o in1310 109114 11B133 123122 111)1H2 1141116 12]L23 122126 127.".31 131120 117119 120

i

AVERAGE F0& PERIOD

34.335.537.342.543.047.146.251.157.158.658.062,664.066.171.975.482.288.897.199.1

105.7112.6113.1118.4127.9142.1

137.5147.8150.3154.9165.2160.3170.9

34.3 35.235.0 36.039.0 40.741.9' 41.344,11 45 .747«11 46 .346.41 47,452.71 54.150.H 59.158.3' 57.15S.1 59.163.3 64.663.? 64.067.0 69.173.4 73.276.4 79.383.2 85.7DO.ft 94.396.5 98.4101.1 101.5107,6 109.3112.E 113.5113.1 113.8122.2 124.0129,7 135.3143.6 146.5

139.1 140.3140.3 147.9150.8 151.3156.1 161.5167.3 165.4160.7 164.7166.2 1S9.0

AVERAGE FOE PERIOD

1423293637414654606365697782879096

10210598

124133135139148148134147149150160162159

17 ' 1925 2531 3335 363B 3942 4347 4957 5861 6164 6566 6671 7379 3184 8489 8991 9290 101103 104104 102102 106112 117127 130133 133134 1,32139 143147 149145 140134 139148 149150 151154 155163 164158 158158 158

Annual

535861646265707473747478843404HO95<>899

1001C6110110110113123120114117123127131:.2?

ne

34.43H.731 .341.943.746 « 8

46,751.857.358.358.162,964 366.572.276.2B3.2<»0.4<J7..l,100.1106.1112.7113.1?120.2129.3143.2

138-9146.5150.6156.1165.6162.8165.5

1624303538414656606465707083889098

103104101110126133134239148

136147150153160161159

NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contafn no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.'This series contains revisions beginning with 1978.

(JANUARY 1983)



Year

1948. .1949...19501951...1952. ..

1953. . .1954...1955...1956. ..1957...1958..,1959. ..1960. . .1961.. .1962. ..1963. . .1964...1965,..1966. ..1967. ..1968. ..1969. ..1970. ..1971. . .1972...1973. ..1974. . .1975. . .1976. . .1977. . .1978...1979. . .1980...1981. . .1982...

1948. ..1949...1950...1951. . .1952, . .1953. ..1954..,1955. ,.1956. . .

1958. ..1959. ..1960. ..1961. ..1962. . .1963. ..1964. . .1965. . ,1966. . .1967. ..1968.. .1969. ..1970. ..1971, ..1972. ..1973.. .1974. ..1975,. .1976...1977...1978. ..1979...1980,..1981. ..1982. ..

1948. . .

1950...1951. ..1952. ..1953. . .1954. . .1955. , .1956. . .1957...1958. . .1959. ..1960...1961, . .1962...1963...1964...1965.,.1966...1967...1968...1969...1970...1971..,1972. ..1973...1974...1975...1976...1977...1978...1979...1980...1981...1982..,

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug.726. FRANCE—INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

4044

404649556166637074808391909499

103113120124134143153139145157153159166156

19.623,224.228.729.331.334.737.340.0

46.248.1

61.971.275.982.679.488.897.8

102.4112.8116.9115.9121.3122.7145.7128.3130.7151.3143.8152,8168.9158.6

5 .0

8.312.114.114.618.519.223.027.428.830.639.047.455.955.967.8

76.992.9

108.3

145!e155^7150.0184.8198.3163.3172.6191 .4196.2210.7230.7237.2

4244

404549546268637076808191909798

103112121126132145153139146156153160167159

20.623.224.729,329.331.334.937.738.7

45.349.757.463.371.474.179.980.388.59,9.4

102.5109 ,.5118.3116.1119.5121.7140,6130.2137.2149.7146.1160.0176.1170.3

5.3

8.511.714.015.018.219.523.328,128.831.640.847.955.557.469.3

77.091.9

110.1125.8146.9154,9159.8186,4198.23161.0.176.9L88.8197.2213.4241.0237.0

4044

4650576266657076807391909799

106112121127134146150137140157156163166157

(1967=100)

4243

• 4 2

475057

! 6266667276808392919598

105116123127135143153138149153160160167156

42 4240 42

48 4850 5158 5862 6266 6666 6672 7276 7681 8087 8791 9191 9298 9998 10172 91119 117121 121124 127137 135150 148156 153134 137149 149152 157157 153164 164160 160159 160

Sept.

4442434851586366667377818890929999

;

L10L17L21L27L30L50L57L35L5253

156170166157

4343404752596366667377818890929999

110117121127138150157135152153156170166157

727, ITALY—INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

20.e22.125.130.029.331.934.938.240.4

45.249.9

58.263.270.876.181.679.390 ..797.8

102.5112.8117.8117.4119.7122.7142.8124.9138.2151.0145.9156.0174,6169.3

20.822.425.830.029.731.935.337,941.5

45,150.0

58.463.871.378.080.680.588.899.7104.3113.5116.8114.0118.3130.8146.6126.8139.1142.5143.5156.7176.1168.4

(1967=100)

22.4 21.324.2 25.125.8 26.430.0 29.730.4 30.030,9 31.934.9 34.338.3 39.342.0 42.0

45.2 46.350.0 49.7

64.6 65.672.2 70.377.9 79.379.7 78.383.2 84,092.1 92.5100.5 100.0105.7 105.5111.4 114.5115.0 115.1114.6 114.3120.4 119.9132.5 135.2142.6 144.4118.8 125.1143.8 141.4147.1 139.8143.8 145.3151.9 145.1162.3 167.4158.0 159.8

21.324.225.830.030.032.735.639.342.645.646.750.1

66.672.878.779.084.693.4

100.1106.3115.0118.3113 .8117.5138.8142.1127.5143.7141.1144.4150.4165.2165 .2

24.224.727.129,730.633.0

. 35.839.142.145.846.651.9

66.873.079.874.983.595.8

100.5106.0113.2115.2117.5123.6139,2139.8126.3141.1142.8143.7150.1141.5137.2

728. JAPAN—INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

8.312.613.416.21.9.019.722.828.1;»8.832.141.349.455.458.268.9

79.394.9

110.6

126.0148.4156.4162.6189.6193.7159.7179,3191.4199.5213.1235.0237.7

9.013.113.816.418.719.723.629.128.632.441 .849.155.,959,869.4

80.595.2

111.2

149.8155.5161 .7188.8190.1163.5181.8190.4200.5214.4230.2238.0

(1967=100)

9.3 9.613.4 13.514.0 14.016.5 16.818.2 18.219.7 19.724.3 25.030.6 30.427.9 27.833.6 34.442.0 42.550.4 51.156.4 55.560.5 60.270.4 71,6

81.7 82.897.2 99.0114.7 113.1

151.4 153.9151.7 155.0164.3 165.0190.9 192.6190,2 185,5163.3 165.1181.0 184.5189.8 191.1201.5 201.8218.2 218.5235.7 234.4235.2 240.7

7.99.9

13.714.617.018.120.325.530.628.634.943.051.954.762.371.9

84.3100.0114.2

153.9155.5164.8190.7183.6166.9186.0187 .9201.8221 .2234.5243.1

8.010.313.514.717.517.620.826,029.628.835.443.652.755.963.671.973.985.8101.8117.4

153.2156.4169.3195.7181.3166.6186.4191.6204.1221.8225.3240,7

4442

49515965656874778388919499

102106116123131139148149137157154157167156160

23.624.227.129.730.932.736.539.343.146.347.353.0

67.471.781,379.164.696.1

100.0109.1107.0118.8118.1117.3137.3142.3126.1146.7144.5146.2159.4160.8164.1

7.910.813.515.517.618.121.226.429.628.936.244.552.655.063.873.9

86.9104.6116.7

154.0157.9170.9.193.1179.3168.6186.3191.2206.0220.5233.4245.6

Oct. Nov. Dec.

4443

48526163656974778388919590101112120124131141150149139152150159164159160

23.224.227.328.730.933.636.539.343.344.547.654.1

68.772.781.579.185.094.9

101.1109.9102.2116.0116.2128.3141.5135.5129.2145.1140.9154.3166.8163.2160.2

6 .88.0

11.413.114.718.118.221.327.129.329.637.045 .053.754.765.673.974.588.3

105.3119.7

154.2156.0172,7196.4175.4168.8186.0190.1206.9225.0235.7240.3

4343

49546165656974778388919599

102114117123132142150143138156154160164157160

23.824.228.028.431.334.936.539.742.645.148.055.3

69.574.281.179.487.295.4

101.8106.099.9

117.5119.7127.3141.1128.2130.6150.4142,0154.7167.3169.5170.8

6 .88.2

11.S13.814.318.218,421.727.429.329.437.746.054.455.066.673.175.790.4107,9122.8

152.7157.9176.019S.017a.6166.0188.9193.4207.6228,1232.6248.4

4340

49536166636974808390909599103113117124132145146142145154150161166163163

23.223.829.029.030.934.936.939.643 .5

48^056.0

70.175.980.579.786.897.5101.6110.7104,2117.9124.0129.9141.8126.3129.1155.1137.9151.9164.7159.4160.3

7 . 18.6

11,814.014.318.518.722.127.628.930.239,046.454.954.767.174.975.792.2108.8122.3144.0156.0157.2180.2197.7169.8169.6190.1194.9210.1228.4236.4247.1

IQ II Q III Q

AVERAGE FOR

IV Q

PERIOD

4144

4649556267647075807991909699

104112121126133145152130146157154161166157

20.322.824.729.329.331.534.837.739.7

45.649.257.162.871.175.481.479.789.398.3102.5111.7117.7116.5120.2122.4143.0127.8135.4150.7145.3156,3173.2166.1

5 .3

8.412.113.815.318.619.523.027.928.031.440.448.255.657.268.773.977.793.2

109.7125.2147.0155.7160.1186.9196.7161.6176.3190.5197.6212.4235.6237.3

4242

4850.58626666727680869191979989117122126136147154136149154157163162158

4442

48515964666773778288909399

100109117122128138149154136154153156169163158

AVERAGE FOR I

21.523.926.029.930.031.634.838.541.045.045.549.959.364.771.378.479.582.691.1

100,1105.2113,1115.6114.3119.5132.8144.5123.6141.4143.1144.2151.2168.6162.1

23.024.426.729.830.532.036.039.242,645.946.951.760.766.972.579.977,984.295.1

100.2107.1111.7117.4116.5119.5138.4141.4126.6143.8142.8144,8153.3155.8155.5

4342

4549536165646974788389919599

102113118124132143149145141154151160165160161

PERIOD

23.424.128.128.731.034.536.639.543.145.147.955.1

60. 769.474.381.079.486.395.9101.5108,9102.1117.1120.0128.5141.5130.0129.6150.2140.3153.6166.3164,0163.8

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

5.9

9.313.313.916.618.419.724.330.028.133.542.150.255.960.270.573.381.797.1113.0131.2151.7154.1163.7190.8188.6164.0182.4190.4201.3217.0236,1238.0

6.67.9

10.313.614.917.417.920.826.029.920.835.543.752.455.263.272.6

85^7102.1116.1135.0153.7156.6160.3193.2181.4167.4106.2190.2204.0221.2231.1243.1

6.98.3

11.713.614,418.318.421.727.429.229.737,945.854.354.866.474.075.390.3107.3121.6142.1154.3157 .0176.3197.4172,6168.1188.3192.8208.2227.2234.9247,9

Annual

4242

4348515863666672778185919298

100104116122128138147151138151154157164163159

22.123.826.429.430.232.635.638.841.845.146.551.5

59.566.072.378.779.683.292.9

100.0105.9109.7117.0116.8121,9133.8139.7126.9142.7144.2147.0156.8165.4161.8

6.27 .89.9

13.214.316.918.320.425.229.228.834.643.051.355 .461.871.474.283,8100.0115.1133,4151.7155,8167.1192.1184.8165.3183.3191.0202.8219.4234.4241.6

NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user, (JANUARY 1983)



Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept.INVENTORY-SALES RATIO, MANUFACTURING, IN 1972 DOLLARS

1954

1960

19631964

19661967...1968. . .1969...1970...1971...1972...1973...1974...1975...1976..,1977...1978...1979. , .1980. ..1981...1982...

1.86 1.881.84 1.871.87 1.881.99 2.012.08 2.051.90 1.901,74 1,741.80 1.832.10 2.111.95 1.931.88 1.871.88 1.841.82 1.841.90 1.911.98 1.97

1NVEN

1950...

19551956. . .19571958...

1962...19631964

19661967...1968,..1969...1970..,1971...1972..,1973.,.1974...1975. . .1976...1977...1978...1979...

1981...1982...

1.871.861.882.042.021.881.751.832.151.911.831.841.791.981.98

(RATIO)

1.89 1.89 1.901.87 1,86 1.861.89 1.92 1.912.08 2.05 2.042.02 2.01 1.981.861.761.842.081.911.841.781,88

1.86 1.851.76 1.771.83 1.852.11 2,071.90 1.901.86 1.84L.81 1.811.80 1.86

2.07 2,11 2,111.97 1.99 1.95

1.91 1.881.84 1.921.89 1.912.06 2.081.99 2.021.86 1.841,76 1.791.86 1.892.03 2.001.90 1.901.86 1.851.83 1.801.85 1.872.06 2.071.98 2.01

rORY-SALES RATIO, MERCHANT WHOLESALERS, IN 1972

.17 1.19L.19 1.20L.20 1.22L.19 1,19L.22 1.23.18 1.23.17 1.17.15 1.16.34 1.32.39 1.38.33 1.33.38 1-39L.42 1.44

L.34 1.34

1.201.201.191.201.231.201.161.151.361.381.351.411.40

1.36

(RATIO)

1.19 1.19 1.191.21 1.22 1.201.17 1.181.22 1,211.23 1.211.21 1.211.16 1.171.15 1=181.37 1,361.38 1.411.34 1.341.39 1.371,41 1.41

..19

L.21

L .20L.21

L.20

L.21

L.34

L.41

L.32L.40

L.39

1.37 1.39 1.42

1.911 .891.912.082.011.831.811.901.991.931.851.821.891.992.04

DOLLARS

1.19 1.20L.20 1.19L.19 1.17L.21 1.211.22 1.221.21 1.191.15 1.201.21 1.24L.33 1.341.40 1.42L.33 1.35L.38 1.38L.40 1.41

1.39 1.43

1.211.181.171.231.201.201.201.251.331.411.381.391.41

1,41

INVENTORY-SALES RATIO, RETAIL TRADE, IN 1972 DOLLARS

1948..,L949. . .

* 952...

J 954

1956

1961...

1963...1364. . .

1966...1967...1968...1969...H'70, , .1S71....1972. . ..1973. . .1974. ..1975. ..1976...1977...i9?a...1979. . .1900...19B1. ..19B2...

1.43.1.41 :1.381.411.36i.411.32 J1.471 .441.341.481.401.45 J1.371.36 J

L .46

.40

.38L.40

.37

.41L.32

L.47.39

L.36

L.42.39.45.40.37

1.451.371.401 .411.391.391.331.461.411.371.401.391.431.421,36

(RATIO)

1.431.3©1 „ 39 ]1.41 J1.391.38 :1.361.441.391.361.371.391.441,45 ]1.38

L.43 1.41..40 ]..38L.38 ], .40 ].38 ;

L.37 ]1.45 ],.34 :.38 J

L.36 ].40 ;

.37

.40

.39

.39

.38

.38

.44

.34

.36

.36

.41.45 1.47.45 1.43.40 1.41

1.42 1.43L.37 1.36L.41 1.41,40 1.40.40 1.40.36 1.36.39 1.41

1.43 1.401.34 1.351.36 1.361.35 1.351.42 1.431.48 1.451.41 1.411.43 1.42

1.411.391.421.401.411.361.391.451.351.391.361.441.411.421.44

Oct. Nov. Dec.

1.94.86. .902,162.01L.811 .791.90L.98L.96L.84L.81.89

L.952.12

1.89.87,94

a.22

1.981.771.761.961.99L.91L.85L.80.93

1.962.15

1.841.891.962.101.941.761.812.091.961.881.821.811.921.962.14

1 .,20

1.20

1.16

1.241.23.18

L.16.32.32.42.38.39

L.41

L.44

1.181.181.171.241.211.171 .141,331.31.41.37.39L.40

L.43

1.201.171.181.241.211,171.151.341.291.401.371.411.401 371.46

1.411.391 .431.381.401.351.401.491.371.371,321.431.431.411 .48

1.411.371 .431.401.381.371.431.511.341.361.331.431.421.401.48

1.371.371.421.371.391.321.471.511.321.341.351.431.401.391.47

IQ II Q n\ Qi

AVERAGE FPR

IV Q

?ERIOD

!

. J .

1

|

1.871.861.882.012,051.891.741,822.121.931.861.851.82

1.89 1.901.86 .1.381.91 1.902.06' 2.072.00 2.01.1.86 1.841.76 JL.79,1.84 l.m2.09 2.D11

1.90 ' l.'H1

1.85 .1 .iiS'1.80 1.152,L.85 1.R7

1.93 2.10 2.041.98 1.97 2,01'

1

1

AVERAGE FQ!X '

1.891.871.932.161.981.781.791.981.981.921.841.811.911.962.14

»KRIOD

I

1

(

1.19 1.191.20 1.211.20 1.181.19 1.211.23 1.211.20 1.211.17 1.181.15 1.181.34 1.361.38 1.40

L,20

L.19

L.18

L.22

L.21

L.20

L .18

L,23L, 33

L.41

1.34 1.33 1.3S1.39 1.39 1,301.42 1.40 1.41

1.35 1.39 1.41,

AVERAQtt FOR

' 1.101,18

i 1.17I 1.24

IL.221 1.171

i

1 J

1

.15

.33

.31

.41L.37

.40L.40

L 39L .44

i

i

">EiRIOD

11

1

'1

j

, . . .

1.45 1.42 1.421.39 1,39 1.371.391.411.371.401.32 ]1.471.411.361.431.391.441.401.36

.39 1.41L.39 1.40L.39 1.40.38 1.36L.37 1.40.44 1.43

L.36 1.35L.37 1.37Le36 1.35.40 1.43.45 1.45.44 1,41".40 1.43

1,40'l.38'1.43il.38,1.391.35'1.431.50il.341.361.33!1.43L.42,1.40|L. 48

Annual

1.091.071.902.082,011..841.771.882.351.921.051.921.H62.U12.:i2

l.U1 . 2Cl.ie

1.221.221.201.171.221.331.401.351.391.411 421.40

L.42L.38.40.40.39.37.38.46.36,3G

1.371.411.44.1.411.42

NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1977. Current data for these series are shown on page 105. [JANUARY 1983)


E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States

Business cycle reference dates

Duration in months

Contraction(trough from

previouspeak)

Expansion(trough to

peak)

Cycle

Trough fromprevioustrough

Peak fromprevious

peak

Trough Peak

December 1854 June 1857December 1858 October 1860June 1861 April 1865December 1867 lune 1869December 1870 October 1873

March 1879 March 1882May 1885 March 1887April 1888 July 1890May 1891 January 1893June 1894 December 1895 .,

June 1897 June 1899December 1900 September 1902 .August 1904 : May 1907June 1908 January 1910January 1912 January 1913

December 1914 August 1918 ....March 1919 January 1920 . . . .July 1921 May 1923July 1924 October 1926 ...November 1927 August 1929 ....

March 1933 May 1937June 1938 February 1945 ..October 1945 November 1948.October 1949 July 1953May 1954 August 1957 ....

April 1958 April 1960February 1961 December 1969 .Novemberl970 November 1973 .March 1975 January 1980....July 1980 July 1981

Average, alt cycles:1854-1981 (29 cycles),1854-1919 (16 cycles) ,1919-1945(6cycles)..19454981 (7 cycles)..

Average, peacetime cycles:1854-1981 (24cycles) ...1854-1919(14cycles) ...1919-1945 (5 cycles)1945-1981 (5 cycles)

188

2118

6538131017

1818231324

231181413

4313

11110

10

II166

18221810

19222010

3022461834

3622112018

2421331912

ii10222721

508037

i539

24106

365812

! 332735

3 45

4 272426

6 34

4830B.36

9974353737

3642444643

3551283640

6463i848

4734

iiZ5264

52485360

47464649

40M5052

10160403035

4239563236

iZ17404134

93

3145.5649

32Hi

477418

512 49

533 55

465 47

456 44

NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean war, and Vietnam war), the postwar contractions, and the full cyclesthat include the wartime expansions.

1 30 cycles.4 25 cycles.

215 cycles.513 cycles.

3 8 cycles.6 6 cycles.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.


F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators

SeriesSpecific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in—

July 1980 Mar. 1975 Nov. 1970 Feb. 1961 Apr. 1958 May 1954 Oct. 1949

LEADING INDICATORS1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg5. Initial claims, unemploy. insurance (inverted).8. New orders, consumer goods, 1972 dollars. . . ,32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . . . .12. Index of net business formation20. Contracts and orders, 1972 dollars ,29. New building permits, private housing36. Change in inventories on hand and on order

in 1972 dollars (smoothed*) „. . .92. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed1). . . . .19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks. . . ,104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed1) . . ,106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars . .910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators. . . .940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index. . . .

COINCIDENT INDICATORS41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls . . . .51. Personal income less transfers, 1972 dollars. .47. Index of industrial production, total . . . . ,57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1972 dollars ,920. Composite index of 4 coincident indicators. . .

LAGGING INDICATORS91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted). . . ,70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1972 dollars. . .62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg ,109. Avg. prime rate charged by banks72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . ,95. Ratio, consumer instal. credit to pers. income

930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators . . . .

7/805/806/806/806/805/804/80

8/805/80NSC1/805/805/804/80

(0)

(-1)(-1)(-2)(-3)

( + 1)(-2)

(-6)(-2)(-2)(-3)

3/753/753/752/752/7512/753/75

3/752/7512/741/751/752/751/75

(0)(0)(0)(-1)(-D(+9)(0)

(0(-1.(-3)(-2'(-2

-2

7/80 (0)6/80 (-1)7/80 (0)5/80 (-2'7/80 (0

1/81 (+6)1/81 (+6)NSC8/80 (+1)NSCNA

8/80 (+1)

4/75 f+1)3/75 (03/75 (03/75 (03/75 (0

1/76 (+10)12/75 (+9)9/75 (+64/77 (+258/76 (+1710/75 (+74/76 (+13)

9/70 (-2)10/70 (-1)10/70 (-1)12/70 (+1)8/70 (-3)10/70 (-11/70 (-10

3/70 (-8)9/70 (-2)6/70 (-5)8/69 (-15)4/70 (-7)7/70 (-4)10/70 (-1)

11/70 (0)NSC

11/70 (0)11/70 (0)11/70 (0)

6/72 (+19)NSCNSC3/72 (+16)7/71 (+8)6/71 (+7)2/72 (+15)

12/60 (-22/61 (01/61 (-13/60 (-11)1/61' (-1)3/61 (+1)12/60 (-2)

2/61 (04/60 (-1010/60 (-412/59 (-14NSC

12/60 (-2)12/60 (-2)

2/61 (0)12/60 (-2)2/61 (0)1/61 (--1)2/61 (0)

4/58 (04/58 (04/58 (012/57 (44)4/58 (0)3/58 (Jl)2/58 (-J2)

4/549/5410/5312/533/543/549/53

(-1)(+4)(-7)(-5)(-2)(-2)(-8)

4/4910/496/493/497/494/491/49

(-6)(0)(-4)(-7)(-3)(-6)(-9)

7/613/6112/61

(+5)(+1)()()(+10)

11/65 (+57)NSC

11/6111/61

(+9)(+9)

3/58 (11/57 ( .12/57 (-4)12/57 (-4)1/58 (-S)1/58 (-1)4/58 (0)

5/58 (+1)4/58 (fl)4/58 (d)4/58 (0|)4/58 (0i)

10/58 (+68/58 (+45/59 (+138/58 (+48/58 (+411/58 (+7)8/58 (+4)

11/53 (-6)11/53 (-6)9/53 (-8)12/53 (-5)NSC

11/53 (-6)1/54 (-4)

8/54 (+3)4/54 (-1)4/54 (-1)12/53 (-5)8/54 (+3)

5/55 (+12)10/54 (+5)5/55 (+12)7/55 (+14)10/54 (+5)11/54 (+6)10/54 (+5)

6/49 (-4)6/49 (-4)6/49 (-4)NA

3/48 (-14)6/49 (-4)10/49 (0)

10/49 (0)7/49 (-3)10/49 (0)7/49 (-3)10/49 (0)

6/50 (+8)2/50 (+4)8/50 (+10)NSC

12/49 (+2)NSC3/50 (+5)

SeriesSpecific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning 1n—

Jan. 1980 Nov. 1973 Dec. 1969 Apr. 1960 Aug. 1957 , July 1953 Nov. 1948

LEADING INDICATORS1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. . . . .5. Initial claims, unemploy. insurance (inverted)8. New orders, consumer goods, 1972 dollars. . . .32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries12. Index of net business formation ,20. Contracts and orders, 1972 dollars ,29. New building permits, private housing . . . .36. Change in inventories on hand and on order

in 1972 dollars (smoothed1)92. Change in sensitive prices (smoothed1). . . .19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks. . . ,

104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed1) . . ,106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators. . . ,940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index. . .

COINCIDENT INDICATORS41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls . . . .51. Personal income less transfers, 1972 dollars.47. Index of industrial production, total . . . . .57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1972 dollars

920. Composite index of 4 coincident indicators. . ,

LAGGING INDICATORS91. Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted). . . ,70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1972 dollars. . ,62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg ,109. Avg. prime rate charged by banks72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . .95. Ratio, consumer instal. credit to pers. income

930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators . . . .

4/78 (-21)(-16)()

9/781/79 ()3/79 (-10)10/78 (-15)3/79 (-10)6/78 (-19)

()(-12)(-)(

4/732/733/735/733/7311/73

(-7)(-9)(-8)(-6)(-8)(0)

5/78 (-20)7/79 (-6)NSC6/79 (-73/78 (-2210/78 (-15)3/77 (-34)

3/80 (+2)1/80 (03/79 (-103/79 (-101/80 (0

7/79 (-6)8/79 (-5)NSC4/80 (+3)NSC

11/79 (-2)4/80 (+3)

12/72 (-11)

4/73 (-7)4/74 (+51/73 (-101/73 (-107/73 (-4.2/73 (-9)12/72 (-11)

10/74 (+11)11/73 (0)6/74 (+7)11/73 (0)

()11/73)

0)

9/73 (-2)12/74 (+13)3/75 (+16)9/74 (+10)1/75 (+14)2/74 (+3)9/74 (+10)

10/68 (-14)1/69 (-11)11/68 (-13)6/69 (-6)4/69 (-8)4/69 (-8)2/69 (-10)

12/68 (-12)9/69 (-3)12/68 (-12)10/68 (-14)2/69 (-10)1/69 (-11)11/68 (-13)

3/70 (+3)NSC

10/69 (-2)10/69 (-2)10/69 (-2)

10/69 (-2)NSCNSC2/70 (+2)9/70 (+9)11/69 (-1)2/70 (+2)

-11)12)

(-11(-12(-14(

5/594/592/59 (10/59 (-63/59 (-13)3/59 (-13)11/58 (-17)

4/5911/587/598/59NSC

5/595/59

4/605/601/601/601/60

(-12)(-17)(-9)(-8)

(0)

(-3)(-3)(-3)

6/60 (+2)9/60 (+5)2/61 (+10)7/60 (+3)NSC

12/60 (+8)6/60 (+2)

11/55 (-21)9/55 (-23)7/55 (-25),10/55 (-22),6/55 (-26)11/56 (-9)2/55 (-30)

9/56 (-11)9/55 (-23)7/56 (-13)4/57 (-4)4/56 (-16)9/55 (-23)5/55 (-27)

3/57 (-5)8/57 (0)3/57 (-5)2/57 (-6)2/57 (-6)

9/57 (+1)9/57 (+1)4/58 (+8)12/57 (+4)9/57 (+1)1/58 (+5)9/57 (+1)

4/53 (-39/52 (-10.4/53 (-3)7/52 (-12)9/52 (-10)2/53 (-511/52 (-8

-5)

(-10)

2/533/531/535/53NSC3/5311/52

(-5)(-4)(-6)(-2)

-4)-8)

12/47 (-11)1/47 (-22)6/4810/48*l/48 . .*4/48 (-7)10/47 (-13)

*7/48 (-4)9/47 (-14)6/48 (-5)NA

*l/47 (-22)*l/48 (-10)*l/48 (-10)

6/53 (-1)6/53 (-1)7/53 (0)3/53 (-4)5/53 (-2)

,9/53 (+2)i9/53 (+2)i3/54 (+8)'2/54 (+7)'8/53 ( + 1)'4/54 (+9)',9/53 (+2)

9/4810/487/4812/4810/48

(-2)(-1)(-4)(+1)(-D

11/48 (0)9/49 (+10)11/48 (0)NSC8/48 (-3)NSC2/49 (+3)

NOTE: Specific peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in individual series, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicatethe cyclical turning points in business activity as a whole. This table shows the specific peaks and troughs corresponding to post-World War IIousiness cycles for the major composite indexes and their components. Numbers in parentheses indicate the leads (-) or lags (+) of the specificdates in relation to the reference dates. The determination of specific peaks and troughs is not an entirely objective matter, and honest dis-agreement may exist among individual analysts. Therefore, the dates above should not be considered absolute. See MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLSS byBurns and Mitchell (NBER: 1946) for further information on the selection of specific peaks and troughs. ,

NA, not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available. iNSC, no specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date i$ discernible.*This is not necessarily the peak but is the high point in the available data.'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.


G. Experimental Data and Analyses

Yearand

quarter

1980

I Q....II Q...Ill Q..IV Q...

1981


1982


Yearand

month

1981

JanFebMar....AprMay....June...

July...AugSept...Oct....Nov....Dec...

1982

Jan....Feb....Mar....AprMay....June...

July...AugSept...Oct....NovDec...

Implicitdeflator,

pricegross

nonfarm businessproduct1

(Index: 1977-100)

123.6127.2129,9132.7

136.5138.9142.3145.5

146.6148.1149.8

pl51.7

Inventory-sales

Manufacturing

(Ratio)

1.981.971.981.971.991.95

1.982.012.042.122.152.14

2.192.142.132.162.092.08

2.09r2.12r2.11r2.20p2.17(NA)

Unit labor cost,all persons, nonfarm

ratios in

Merchantwholesalers

(Ratio)

1.341.341.361.371.391.42

1.391.431.411.441.431.46

1.491.421.401.451.371.42

1.451.451.49

rl.51pi. 47(NA)

business sector1

(Index: 1977=100)

127.8132.5134.7136.8

139.0141.9145.1149.0

151.6153.5

rl54.7pl55.9

1972 dollars2

Retail trade

(Ratio)

1.361.371.361.381.401.41

1.431.421.441.481.481.47

1.481.441.451.451.401.47

1.461.491.49

rl.48pi.43(NA)

Components of BCD series 2 6 -

inImplicit price deflator, gross nonfarm

business product, Q(index: 1977 = 100)

Unit labor cost, ail persons, nonfarmbusiness sector, Q(index: 1977 = 100)

ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)

RSIManufacturing

Merchant wholesalers

111 til Ml I I I I I \Ut\ \ I I 1111111 i n i n I t i l 1111969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982

NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Historical data are shown on page 97.2Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, fjureau of Economic Analysis. Historical data are shown on page 102.


G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued

Ill

i\V

III

ni

(Aug.) (Apr.)

<Apr.) (Feb.)

P T P T

11$ in ii

Changes in sensitive crt

\

111

ii

hi

it

1 Mi

I1V

)nth-t

¥ ^

o-mor

in in

j ' d i t -

lth di

j

1

fferer

:•: Month-to-month perceni

mw

in | |

1ill

i i

\ Jr

HI III

i l l

ces i

II

ann.

changes

> ^

I I I III

III

rate,

[ann.

III

III

bil. c

\>

rate,

V

III

I I I

ol.; n

J

III

iovin[

percent; n

J

I I I

U

HI

(D<€.) (Nov.)P T

(n

>avg.--4-t

I I

erm1)

mm•:•>:•>/]

ifiIloving avg.—4-1

111

i i ik

ill III

III

p

erm1)I

i

SfTf

HI

(Nov.) (Mar.)P

IF!:

y•

It :ki\

T

| J : |

l ipi11III

|

ill

in

i;:

1 j

it

i J

u

III

III

A

. >• I• it/! < *

*

in

it

j r r

I

IIi

i

Ikmrl':

I

i

j

1

II

(Jar ) (JulyP T

.Li

wvlv

IIP

is mlll ll l

I1 !

11

L

i

in III

)in

i7 !|*• !

i1

• 2

II

III

m

mI I11il1

11

i

in

Arithmeticscale

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

20

10

1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 |979 1980 1981 1982

Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov1. Dec.

Month-to-month differences in sensitive credit--monthly data (annual rate, bi l l ions of dollars)

1980-1981-1982-

151.284.688.2

Month-to-month

1980-1981-1982-

95.394.550.8

Month-to-month

1980-1981-1982-

14.27.57.3

Month-to-month

1980-1981-1982-

9.18.54.2

122.974.386.0

82.950.844.8

8.9121.472.6

-43.2132.873.4

22.9102.323.1

0.9115.9-24.6

73.9108.9r22.8

94.1110.7rl8.2

differences in sensitive credit—smoothed data1 (annual rate, bi l l ions of

112.189.465.3

percent

11.46.57.0

percent

10.68.05.4

120.877.172.7

changes in

7.64.43.6

changes in

11.36.86.0

95.376.070.4

sensitive

0.810.65.9

sensitive

8.86.65.7

43.991.965.7

6.2110.260.0

credit—monthly

-4.011.55.9

2.18.81.9

credit—smoothed

4.08.05.3

0.69.64.9

-5.1117.940.2

13.0113.0r!5.5

data (annual rate,

0.19.9

-2.0

6.89.2

rl.8

44.4110.4r6.3

percent)

8.69.31.5

84.943.1

r-55.5

dollars)

70.399.7r0.3

7.73.6

r-4.5

data1 (annual rate, percent)

-0.510.23.2

1.29.7

rl.3

4.19.4

r0.5

6.48.4

rO.O

104.644.1

r-65.7

89.476.8

r-19.6

i

9.4i3.7,

r-5.3,

8.16.4

r-1.6

94.042.7(NA)

94.554.6(NA)

8.43.5

(NA)

8.54.6

(NA)

NOTE: See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the August 1982 issue. iSOURCE: These series are compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis from data supplied by the Board of Governors

of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Home Loan Bank Board. iaThis series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.

-10



Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes

Series title(and unit of measure)

Basic data

Sept.1982

Oct.1982

Nov.1982

Dec.1982

Net contribution to index

Sept.to

Oct.1982

Oct.to

Nov.1982

Nov.to

Dec.1982

LEADING INDICATORS1. Average workweek, production workers,

manufacturing (hours)5. Average weekly initial claims. State

unemployment insurance1 (thousands)8. New orders for consumer goods and materials

in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)32. Vendor performance, companies receiving

slower deliveries (percent) . . .*12. Net business formation

(index: 1967=100) . .20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment

in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)29. New building permits, private housing

units (index: 1967=100)36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in

1972 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .92. Change in sensitive crude materials

prices, smoothed2 (percent)19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

(index: 1941-43=10)104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed2

(percent)106. Money supply (M2) in 1972 dollars

(billion dollars)910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3

(index: 1967=100)

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

(thousands)51. Personal income less transfers in 1972

dollars (annual rate, billion dollars).47. Industrial production, total

(index: 1967=100) . . . .57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972

dollars (million dollars) .920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident

indicators3 (index: 1967=100) . . . . .

LAGGING INDICATORS91. Average duration of unemployment1

(weeks)70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total,

in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing

(index: 1967=100) . .109. Average prime rate charged by banks

(percent) . .72. Commercial and industr ia l loans outstanding

(mi l l ion dol lars) . . . .Ratio, consumer installment credi t topersonal income (percent)

930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators3

(index: 1967-100)

95.

38.8

671

29.66

40

NA

rl2 .31

81.0

r-4.99

rO.58

122.43

eo.90

836.9

rl3O.2

89,267

rl,061,3

137.3

rl49,509

rl30.5

16.6

266.03

r229.7

13.50

r218,286

12.87

rl72.4

38.8

670

27.70

44

NA

r l l . 96

94.7

r-6.11

0.59

132.66

reo.74

838.5

rl30.6

r88,860

rl ,056.6

rl35.8

rl46,289

rl28.5

r l7 .1

r265.33

r231.O

12.52

r219,419

12.79

rl68.4

38.9

615

r28.09

40

NA

r l l . 3 6

96.3

p-13.24

0.70

138.10

re0.65

r846.0

rl30.8

r88,684

rl ,057.9

rl34.8

pl48,257

rl28.3

r l7 .3

p262.38

r231.8

11.85

r217,358

pl2.83

rl65.0

p38.9

538

p28.21

38

NA

pl3.82

105.4

NA

0.47

139.37

e0.59

p853.4

pl32.8

p88,518

pi ,063.5

pl34.7

NA

p!28.2

18.0

NA

p231.4

11.50

p215,519

NA

pl61.9

0.00

0.00

-0.39

0.15

NA

-0.07

0.50

-0.08

0.00

0.54

-0.56

0.08

0.31

-0.36

-0.22

-0.30

-0.47

-1.53

-0.18

-0.12

0.18

-1.91

0.11

-0.28

-2.32

0.09

0.27

0.08

-0.15

NA

-0.13

0.05

-0.49

0.05

0.27

-0.31

0.37

0.15

-0.16

0.06

-0.20

0.29

-0.16

-0.07

-0.53

0.11

-1.30

-0.21

0.14

-2.02

0.00

0.46

0.03

-0.08

NA

0.54

0.32

NA

-0.12

0.07

-0.23

0.40

1.53

-0.19

0.34

-0.03

NA

-0.08

-0.37

NA

-0.08

-1.02

-0.28

NA

-1.88

NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I tis computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available com-ponents and dividing that resul t by the index standardization factor. See the March 1979 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 106-107) for weights and standardization factors. NA, not avai lable, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.

LThis series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.2This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.3Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding

differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustmentfactor for the leading index is 0.099; for the coincident index, -0.164; for the lagging index, -0.170.

*See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," on page iv of the July 1982 issue.



Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

111 IT11111111111111 M I i11 MI iri 111111111111

30. Change in business inventories,1972 dollars

Actual

data

+ 25

+ 20

+ 15

+10

+ 5

0

- 5

- 1 0

- 1 5

Devi-

ationsfrom

reference

peaks

Actualdatafor

currentcycle

Percent

- I +10

+ 5

• 1650

• 1600

• 1550

• 1500

• 1450

-5

QRTRS.FROMR E F .PEAK

CURRENTACTUAL

DATA

QRTR.AND

YEAR

SERIES 30

ANN. RATEBIL. DOL.

-2 2.4 1/81

-1 12.1 11/81

o1234

5

1 6

4-15

-43

- 1 7

. 5

.8

.4

.4

.4

. 7

111/81

IV/811/82

11/82111/82

IV/82

MONTHSFROMREF.PEAK

DEVI-ATIONS

FROM7/81

CURRENTACTUAL

DATA

MONTHAND

YEAR

SERIES 21

HOU;RS

5 -0.66 -0.77 -0.68 -0.7

9

101112

13141516

-0.6-0.7-0.6-0.6

-0.6-O.7-O.7-0.7

-0.7

2.4 12/812.3 1/822.4 2/822.3 3/82

2.4 4/822.3 5/822.4 6/822.4 7/82

2.42.32.32.3

8/829/8210/8211/82

2.3 12/82

QRTRS.FROMREF.PEAK

- 2- 1

0

1234

5

MONTHSFROMREF.PEAK

DEVI-ATIONS

FROM

111/81

CURRENTACTUAL

DATA

SERIES 50

QRTR.AND

YEAR

ANN. RATE

-0.2-0.5

0. P

-1.3-2.6- 2 . 1- 1 . 9

- 2 . 6

DEVI-ATIONS

FROM

7/81

3 I L . DOL1507.81502.2

1/8111/81

1510.4 111/81

1490.11470.71478.4

IV/811/82

11/821481.1 111/82

1471.7

CURRENTACTUAL

DATA

IV/82

MONTHAND

YEAR

SERIES 90

PERCENT

-0.93-0.98-1.03-1.15

9 -1.2710 -1.0411 -1.2712 -1.38

13141516

-1.38-1.52-1.79-1.87

0 +6 +12 +18Months from reference peaks

57.5157.4657.4157.29

12/811/822/823/82

57.17 4/8257.40 5/8257.17 6/8257.06 7/82

5 7.0656.9256.6556.57

8/829/8210/8211/82

56.SO 12/82

1111 ̂ ^̂ ^̂ r 11111111 H rv Y nfTi i F i T i r i T V

21. Average weekly overtime hours,

product on workers, manufacturing

1980

t

A

JEM

[

90. Ratio, civ

1 1 t /"'1 1 r

w1973

ilian employment to totalpopulation of working age

|u,u,u| m

] • M W * f I F \m m iI / * mm / VLmT^X ^

w /V\r1y

\! V'l •1981 M

V f>

1973

i

Devi-

ationsfrom

reference

peaks

Actuai

- t +0-5

0

05

- - 1 . 0

J -1.5

Actial

- i + 0 5

•H n•H y

- - 0 . 5

1.0

- - 1 - 5

2-0

Actualdata

for

currentcycle

• 3.4

• 3 0

• 2.6

• 2.2

• 1.8

• 59.0

• 58.5

. 5 8 . 0

• 57.5

• 57.0

• 56.5

# 5 6 . 0

-6 0 +6 +12 +U +24Months from reference peaks

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p, 107 of the August 1982 issue.



Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued

75

• 60

• 45

0

- - 5

- -10

J -15

• 160

155

• 150

• 145

• 135

130

0 +6 +12 +18 +24

Months from reference peaks

MONTHSFROMREF.PEAK

D E V I -ATIONS

FROM7/81

CURRENTACTUAL

DATA

MONTHAND

YEAR

5678

91 01 11 2

1 31 41 51 6

1 7

MONTHSFROMREF.PEAK

SERIES 2 91967=100

-15.3-14.6-15.8-9.6

-6.60 . 4

-1 .312.9

-5.76 . 6

24.626.7

38.7

D E V I -ATIONS

FROM7/81

64.464.964.068.7

71.076.375.085.8

71.781.094.796.3

105.4

CURRENTACTUAL

DATA

12/811/822/823/82

4/825/826/827/82

8/829/82

10/8211/82

12/82

MONTHAND

YEAR

T T T T910. Composite index of 12 leading

indicators

5678

91 01 112

1 31 41 51 6

1 7

MONTHSFROMREF.PEAK

SERIES 9101967=100

-5.7-6.9-7.2-7.3

-6.2-5.3-4 .9-3.6

-4.2-3 .4-3.1-3 .0

-1.5

DEVI-ATIONS

FROM7/81

127.1125.5125.1125.0

126.5127.6128.2129.9

129.2130.2130.6130.8

132.8

CURRENTACTUAL

DATA

12/811/822/823/82

4/825/826/827/82

8/829/82

10/8211/82

12/82

MONTHAND

YEAR

5678

91 01 11 2

1 31 4151 6

1 7

MONTHSFROMREF.PEAK

SERIES 4 71967=100

-6.8-8.6-7.1-7.9

-8 .9-9.6-9 .9-9.8

-10.1-10.8-11.8-12.4

-12.5

D E V I -ATIONS

FROM7/81

143.4140.7142.9141.7

140.2139.2

.138.7138.8

138.4137.3135.8134.8

134.7

CURRENTACTUAL

DATA

12/811/822/823/82

4/825/826/827/82

8/829/82

10/8211/82

12/82

MONTHAND

YEAR

920. Composite index of 4 coincidentindicators

5678

91 01 11 2

1 31 41 51 6

SERIES

-4.4-6.1-5.0-5 .5

-6.2-5.5-6.7-7 .2

-8 .1-8.6

-10.0-10.2

9 2 0967=100

136.5134.1135.7135.0

134.0134.9133.3132.5

131.3130.5128.5128.3

12/811/822/823/82

4/825/826/827/82

8/829/82

10/8211/82

17 -10.2 128.2 12/82

Devi-ations

fromreference

peaks

Actualdatafor

currentcycle

Percent

+ 15

+10

+ 5

• 150

• 140

• 130

-5

-10

-15

-20

• 120

no

Percent

+ 5 •150

• 145

0

• 140

-5

-10

-15

• 135

• 130

• 125

-6 0 +6 +12 +18 +24

Months from reference peaks

NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the August 1932 issue.


ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE

Series titles(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of

Series/'following this index)

Seriesnumber

Current issue(page numbers)

Charts Tables

Historicaldata

(issue date]

Series

descriptions

(*)


Series/'following this index)

Seriesnumber

Current isst.efpage numbers)

Historicalda:a

(issue date)

Serira

descriptions

(*)

Accession rate, manufacturing „Agricultural products, exportsAnticipations and intentions

Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, DlConsumer sentiment, indexEmployees, manufacturing and trade, DlInventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl -.New orders, manufacturing, DlPrices, selling, manufacturing, DlPrices, selling, retail trade, DlPrices, selling, wholesale trade, DlProfits, net, manufacturing and trade, DlSales, net, manufacturing and trade, 01

AutomobilesExpenditures, personal consumptionImports of automobiles and parts

B

Balance of payments-See International transactions.Bank loans to businesses, loans outstandingBank loans to businesses, net changeBank rates-See Interest rates.Bank reserves

Free reservesMember bank borrowing from Federal Reserve

Bonds-See Interest rates.Borrowing-See Credit.Budget-See Government.Building-See Construction.Building permits, new private housingBusiness equipment, industrial productionBusiness expenditures, new plant and equipmentBusiness expenditures, new plant and equipment, 01 .Business failures, current liabilitiesBusiness formationBusiness incorporationsBusiness inventories-See Inventories.Business loans-See Bank loans.Business saving

Canada-See International comparisons.Capacity utilization

Manufacturing (BEA)Manufacturing (FflB) ,Materials

Capital appropriations, manufacturingBacklogNewly approvedNewly approved, Dl ,

Capital investment-See Investment, capital.Capital investment commitments, ClCash flow, corporate, constant dollars .•Cash flow, corporate, current dollarsCivilian labor force-See also Employment.

EmploymentEmployment as percent of populationTotalUnemployed

Coincident indicators, fourComposite index ,Composite index, rate of change „Diffusion indexRatio to lagging indicators, composite index

Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded . .Commorcial and industrial loans outstandingCommercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .Compensation

Compensation, average hourly, all employees,nonfarm business sector

Compensation, average hourly, all employees,nonfarm business sector, percent changes

Compensation of employeesCompensation of employees, percent of national

incomeCompensation, real average hourly, all employees,

nonfarm business sectorCompensation, real average hourly, all employees,

nonfarm business sector, percent changesEarnings, average hourly, production workers,private nonfarm economy

Earnings, average hourly, production workers,private nonfarm economy, percent changes

Earnings, real average hourly, productionworkers, private nonfarm economy

Earnings, real average hourly, productionworkers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes ,

Wage and benefit decisions, first yearWage and benefit decisions, life of contract. . .Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, anc<

construction .

2604

6197058974975971976978977972973

55616

1656

2438223838383838383838

2256

72112

El 143534

4429044137

920920c951940972112

345c280

64

346

346c

340

340c

341

341c348349

15,3532

3333

46

202020

242437

112929

51185118,51

103936712315,3532

49

5045

30,47

49

50

49

50

49

505050

19

6192

6776657676767676767676

6592

8/81• 1/83

6/826/82

. 12/821/821/827/821/827/827/821/821/82

9/821/83

1864

3434314848484849484848

5064

7372

7272

297661970141213

73242438331223

,25

,23

67676776726565

82

646464

666675

607070

89628962,89

60

74*'60667372

87

8782

70,83

88

88

87

87

87

878888

63

3/823/82

1/821/82

17/82

12/8212/8212/82

7/831/831/83

11/818/828/82

4/823/824/823/82

77/8111/812/8211/813/823/823/82

11/82

11/8210/82

10/82

11/82

11/82

6/82

6/82

7/82

7/828/818/87

9/82

4343

4545

6/8212/826/826/8212/8112/813/82

35243434443232

37

252525

333333

153737

20202020

15

15*75324343

5656

56

56

56

15

15

15

156262

Composite indexesCoincident indicators

Four coincidesFour coincides, rate of changeRatio to lagging indicator index

Lagging indicatorsSix laggersSix laggers, rate of change

Leading indicatorsCapital investment commitmentsInventory investment and purchasingMarginal employment adjustmentsMoney and financial flows :ProfitabilityTwelve leadersTwelve leaders, rate of change

ConstructionBuilding permits, new private housingContracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. .Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sa les . . .Gross private domestic fixed investment

Nonresidential, as percent of GNPNonresidential structures, constant dollarsNonresidential, total, constant dollarsResidential as percent of GNPResidential, total, constant dollars

Housing startsConsumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.Consumer goods and materials, new ordersConsumer goods, industrial productionConsumer installment debt

Debt outstanding . ,Net changeRatio to personal income

Consumer installment loans, delinquency rateConsumer prices-See also International comparisons.

All items, index :Al l items, percent changes-ood,indexFood, percent changes

Coisumer sentiment, indexConsumption expenditures-See Personal consumptionexpenditures.

Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol.Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current do l . .Corporate bond yieldsCorporate profits-See Profits.Cos;ts-See Labor costs and Price indexes.Credit

Bank loans to businesses, net changeBorrowing, total privateCommercial and industrial loans outstandingConsumer installment debt

Debt outstandingNet changeRatio to personal income

Consumer installment loans, delinquency rateMortgage debt, net change.,

Crude materials-See Wholesale prices.

Oebt-See Credit.

Military prime contract awardsNational defense purchasesNew orders, defense productsObligations incurred

Deficit-See Government.Deflators-See Price indexes.Delinquency rate, consumer installment loansDeliveries, vendor performanceDiff jsion indexes

Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . .Capital appropriations, manufacturingCoincident indicatorsEmployees, manufacturing and tradeEmployees on private nonagrtcultural payrolls —Industrial materials pricesIndustrial materials pricus, componentsIndustrial productionIndustrial production, componentsInitial claims, State unemployment insurance :Inventories, manufacturing and tradeLegging indicatorsLeading indicators „NEW orders, durable goods industriesNEIW orders, durable goods industries, components .New orders, manufacturingPrices, 500 common stocksPrices, selling, manufacturingPrices, selling, retail tradePrices, selling, wholesale tradeProfits, manufacturingProfits, net, manufacturing end tradeSaies, net, manufacturing and tradeWorkweek, mfg. production workersWorkweek, mfg. production workers, components .

Disposable personal income-See Income.

920920c940

S30930c

914915913917916910910c

24887862498923

661139539

320320c322322c58

2010116

11211072

11395

525564548517

3932

970965951974963967

962975952950964

971968976978977360972973

39

IOI39

171111111111110 i39

I

13,2523*2 4 14725 '2547 '2525

2 2

35 ,32 !

15,3533

49 '49,59494S 1It

32. ,:J2115,35

35 13215,353332 I

3312,21

37

676667

836767836767

6465

73727372

84,9584,95848465

11/3711/3111/31

•1/81

11/HI11 /in11 /HI11 /(SI71/B1M/BlII All

6/8?3/829/82

10/829/829/8210/829/823/82

8/827 2/82

5/825/8211/822/82

5/825/825/825/8212/82

8/828/822/82

15

151515751515

353228

515151515735

2624

43434345

5959595931

323246

3/8211/82 i3/02

5/825/8211/8?2/823/B2

434443

4343434542

4/B211/8212/827/«2

2/822/HZ

6/021/032/S21/B27/HZ1/(12

Y/Ul /£2i/a?2/H21W.8/82

Ymurn1/821/821/8212/821/821/82i/m

645326

4528

343315481536

24

1848151526

4836484948

484815

NOTE: CI, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic Investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).


ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued


Series," following this index)

Seriesnumber


Charts Tables

Historic!data

issue date)

Series

descriptions

(*)




Historicaldata

[issue date)

Seriesdescriptions

(*)

Earnings-See Compensation,Employment and unemployment

Accession rate, manufacturingCivilian labor force, totalEmployee hours in nonagriculturalestablishments

Employee hours in nonagriculturalestablishments, rate of .change •

Employees in mining, mfg., and constructionEmployees, manufacturing and trade, 01.Employees on nonagricultural payrollsEmployees on private nonag. payrolls, DlEmployment, ratio to populationEmployment, total civilianHelp-wanted advertising in newspapersHelp-wanted advertising, ratio to unemploymentInitial claims, State unemployment insuranceInitial claims, State unemployment insurance, 01Layoff rate, manufacturingMarginal employment adjustments, ClOvertime hours, mfg. production workersParticipation rate, both sexes, 1B-19 years oldParticipation rate, females 20 years and overParticipation rate, males 20 years and overPart-time workers for economic reasonsPersons engaged in nonagricultural activitiesQuit rate, manufacturingUnemployed, both sexes, 16-19 years oldUnemployed, females 20 years and overUnemployed, full-time workersUnemployed, males 20 years and overUnemployment, average durationUnemployment rate, 15 weeks and overUnemployment rate, insured, average weeklyUnemployment rate, totalUnemployment, total civilianWorkweek, mfg. production workersWorkweek, mfg. production workers, componentsWorkweek, mfg. production workers, Dl

Equipment-See Investment, capital.Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.

Federal funds rateFederal Government-See Government.Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing fromFinal sales in constant dollarsFinancial flows, and money, ClFixed investment-See Investment, capital.Fixed weighted price index, NIPAFixed weighted price index, percent changes, NtPAFood-See Consumer prices.Foreign trade-See also International transactions.

Balance on goods and servicesBalance on merchandise tradeExports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. militaryExports, merchandise, total exc. military aidExports of agricultural productsExports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPAExports of goods and services, current dol., NIPAExports of goods and services, exc. militaryExports of nonelectrical machineryImports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. militaryI mports, merchandise, totalImports of automobiles and partsImports of goods and services, constant dol.,, N3PA —Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPAImports of goods and services, totalImports of petroleum and productsNet exports, goods and services, constant dol., NIPA . .Net exports, goods and services, current dol., NIPA . . .Net exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA

France-See International comparisons.Free reserves

Goods output in constant dollarsGovernment budget, NIPA

Federal expendituresFederal receiptsFederal surplus or deficitState and local expendituresState and local receiptsState and local surplus or deficitSurplus or deficit, total

Government purchases of goods and servicesFederal, constant dollarsFederal, current dollarsFederal, percent of GNPNational defenseState and local, constant dollarsState and local, current dollarsState and local, percent of GNPTotal, constant dollarsTotal, current dollars

2441

48c40974419639044246605962391321453452451448424446445447444911444543371

961

1651

17

39173814,17361851171712,16361611165151515117165151515115,1818181818,5112,16

36**

34

94213917

311311c

667622618602604256252668606620612616257253669614255250251

334011

4848

57575756564444575657565644445756444447

33

20

502501500512511510298

263262265564267266268261260

52525252525246

434347554343474343

62766274628961616174616061898989896261898989896262626262,89617774

72

728060

8484

93939392928282939293929282829392828283

72

63

8/814/82

11/82

11/827/821/827/827/823/824/827/823/822/821/828/8111/817/8?4/824/824/824/823/828/814/824/824/824/823/823/823/823/823/827/82

7/82

2/82

1/8210/8211/81

11/82n/82

10/8210/8210/82

1/82

8/82

15

8/828/828/825/821/8310/8210/828/821/838/825/821/8310/8210/828/821/83

65656564645454656465646454546564

45

25

90909090909083

818183918181838181

9/829/829/829/829/829/8211/82

11/8211/8211/8211/82n/8211/8211/8211/8211/82

62626262626258

535353535353535353

Gross business productFixed weighted price indexFixed weighted price index, percent changes

Gross domestic product, labor cost per unitGross national product

G NP, constant dollarsGNP, constant dollars, differencesGNP, constant dollars, percent changesGNP, current dollarsGNP, current dollars, differencesGNP, current dollars, percent changesGNP, ratio to money supplyGoods output in constant dollarsImplicit price deflatorImplicit price deflator, percent changesPer capita GNP, constant dollars

Gross private domestic invest.-See Investment, capital.

H

Help-wanted advertising in newspapersHelp-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment . .Hours of production workers, manufacturing

Average weekly overtimeAverage workweek I.......Average workweek, componentsAverage workweek, Dl

HousingHousing startsHousing units authorized by local bldg. permits .Residential GPD1, constant dollarsResidential GPDI, percent of GNP

I

Implicit price deflator, GNPImplicit price deflator, GNP, percent changesImports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.Income

Compensation, average hourly, all employees,nonfarm business sector

Compensation, average hourly, all employees,nonfarm business sector, percent changes

Compensation of employeesCompensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income —Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,nonfarm business sector

Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,nonfarm business sector, percent changes

Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income ..Corporate profits with IVA and CCACorp. profits with 1VA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income '.Disposable personal income, constant dollarsDisposable personal income, current dollar:;Disposable personal income, per capita, constant do l . . .Earnings, average hourly, production workers,private nonfarm economy

Earnings, average hourly, production workers,private nonfarm economy, percent changes

Earnings, real average hourly, productionworkers, private nonfarm economy

Earnings, real average hourly, productionworkers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .

Income on foreign investment in the U.S.Income on U.S. investments abroad . . ; : —Interest, netInterest, net, percent of national incomeNational income ,Personal income, constant dollarsPersonal income, current dollars . . . . . . ' . . . . .Personal income, less transfers, constant dollarsPersonal income, less transfers, constant dols. rate of chg.Personal income, ratio to money supplyProprietors' income with IVA and CCAProprietors' income with.IVA and CCA, percentof national income

Rental income of persons with CCARental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. incomeWage and benefit decisions, first year : . . . : . : .Wage and benefit decisions, life of contractWages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction

Incorporations, new businessesIndustrial materials pricesIndustrial materials prices, componentsIndustrial materials prices, DlIndustrial production -See also International comparisons.

BusinessequipmentConsumer goodsDurable manufacturesNondurable manufacturesTotal :Total, componentsTotal, DlTotal, rate of change

Installment debt-See Credit.Insured unemployment

Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance . . ; , . .Avg. weekly initial claims, unemploy. insurance, Dl . . .Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate

311311c

5050b50c200200b200c10749310310c217

249

310310c

345c28064

346

346c95286287225224

227

340

340c

341

341c

652651288269220522235 V51c108282

283284285348349531323

967

7675737447

484830

19,40

3 9 "40

1717

1612,16

3 6 *

2513,252547

4848

49

504530,47

49

5015,354547404040

49

49

505757454745194014,19393145

4745475050192328

37

24222020

14,20,58

596245

3739

12,163618

848470

63,80808080808071638484

6161

61617774

67676783

8484

87

878270,83

88

738283808080

87

87

879393828382636363

838283

6365697975

6765636363,947875

617462

11/8211/829/82

8/828/828/828/828/828/828/828/8211/82n/8210/82

7/823/82

7/827/82

7/82

3/826/829/8210/82

11/8211/82

11/82

11/8210/8210/82

11/82

11/8211/8210/8210/8210/8210/8210/82

6/82

6/82

7/82

7/828/828/8210/8210/8210/829/829/829/829/828/8210/82

10/8210/8210/828/818/819/823/821/82

1/82

12/8212/8212/8212/8212/82

7/8212/82

2/821/323/82

585939

4949494949494025494949

1919

1515

15*

35355151

49

156565575755222222

40*56

5657576262223236

2424242424

24*

181818

NOTE: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).


ALPHABETICAL INDEX- SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued

Series titles{See complete titles in "Titles and Soufcesof


Seriesnumber

Current issue(page numbers}

Tables

Historicaldata

(issue date)descriptions

(*)



Current issue(page number^

Charts

:ata(issue date!

Seriesdescriptions

Interest, netInterest, net, percent of national incomeInterest rates

Bank rates on short-term business loansCorporate bond yieldsFederal funds rateMortgage yields, secondary marketMunicipal bond yieldsPrime rate charged by banksTreasury bill rateTreasury bond yields

Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.International comparisons

Consumer pricesCanada, indexCanada, percent changesFrance, indexFrance, percent changesItaly, indexItaly, percent changesJapan, indexJapan, percent changesUnited Kingdom, indexUnited Kingdom, percent changes „United States, indexUnited States, percent changesWest Germany, indexWest Germany, percent changes

Industrial productionCanadaFranceItalyJapanOECD, European countriesUnited KingdomUnited StatesWost Germany

Stock pricesCanadaFranceItalyJapanUnited KingdomUnited StatesWest Germany

International transactions-See also Foreign trade.Balance on goods and servicesBalance on merchandise tradeExports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. militaryExports, merchandise, total exc. military aidExports of agricultural products „Exports of goods and services, exc. military . ,Exports of nonelectrical machineryImports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. militaryImports, merchandise, totalImports of automobiles and partsImports of goods and services, totalImports of petroleum and productsIncome on foreign investments in U.SIncome on U.S. investmsnts abroad

InventoriesBusiness inventories, change, constant dollars . .Business inventories, change, current dollarsBusiness inventories, change, percent of 6NPFinished goods, manufacturers'Inventories on hand and on order, net changeInventories to sales ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated)Inventory investment and purchasing, ClManufacturing and trade, constant dollarsManufacturing and trade, current dollarsManufacturing and trade, current dollars, chanrjaManufacturing and trade, 01Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfgMaterials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.,change

Investment, capitalCapital appropriations, manufacturing, backlogCapital appropriations, manufacturing, newCapital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl . . . . . .Capital investment commitments, ClConstruction contracts, commercial and industrial . . . .Construction expenditures, business and machineryand equipment sales

Gross private domestic investmentFixed investment, constant dollarsFixed investment, current dollarsInventories, business, charts in-See Inventories.Nonresidential, total constant dollarsNonresidential, total, percent of GNPProducers' durable equip., nonresid., constant do!, . .Residential, total, constant dollarsResidential, total, percent of GNPStructures, nonresidential, constant dollarsTotal, constant dollarsTotal, current dollars

New orders, capital goods, nondefense, constantdollars

New ordEirs, capital goods, nondefense, currentdollars

28(1289

67116119118117109114115

733733c736736c737737c738738c732732c320320c735735c

72372672772872172247725

74374674774874219745

667622618602604668606620612616669614652651

3024524765367791S70713197E78

97119659149

243242

86248

24987241240

59

5 9 "

5 9 "

5 9 "

594949,59

5 9 * '

58585858585814,20*5858

59595959595959

5757575656575657565657565757

26,4242472713,26271115,2727263827

26

2424371123

24

4242

2547252547254242

23

23

9696959596969595959584,9584,959595

94949494949463,9494

96969696969696

9393939292939293929293929393

68,818183686868606868687668

68

6666756066

67

8181

6783676783678181

66

66

10/8210/82

12/822/822/822/822/822/822/822/82

12/8212/8212/8212/8212/8212/8212/82

8/828/828/825/821/838/821/838/825/821/838/821/838/828/82

10/8210/8210/829/828/821/8311/819/829/829/821/829/82

9/82

1/831/831/8311/813/82

9/82

10/8210/82

9/8210/829/829/8210/829/8210/8210/82

8/82

8/82

4/824/824/824/824/824/824/824/824/824/825/825/824/824/82

1/831/831/831/831/831/8312/821/83

6868686869696969686859596868

6666666666662466

70707070703670

6565656464656465646465646565

515151282828152828284828

28

3333331532

28

Plant and equipmentBusiness expenditures, newBusiness expenditures, new, DlContracts and orders, constant dollars.Contracts and orders, current dollars..

Invastment, foreignIncome on foreign investments in U.S. . .Income on U.S. investments abroad

Italy-See International comparisons.

Japan-See International comparisons.

L

Labor cost per unit of gross domestic productLabor cost per unit of output, manufacturing ; ; .Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector.Labor cost, price per unit of, nemfarm business...,:..Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.Lagging indicators, six

Composite indexComposite index, rate of change : . ; . ; . . . . : .Diffusion index

Layoff rate, manufacturingLeading indicators, twelve

Composite indexComposite index, rate of changeDiffusion index

Liabilities of business failuresLiquid assets, change in total . . . . . . . .Loans-See Credit.

M

Man-hours-See Employment and unemployment.Marginal employment adjustments, ClMaterials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.change

Materials, crude and inter mediate-See Wholesale prices.Materials, industrial-See Price indexes.Materials, new orders for consumer goods andMaterials, rate of capacity utilization . . . . : . .Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.MiliUiry-See Defense.Money and financial flows, ClMoney supply

Liquid assets, change in totalMcney supply MlMoney supply M l , percent changesMoney supply M2 '....'..,..'.Money supply M2, percent changes :Ratio, GNP to money supply MlRa:io personal income to money supply M2 . . . ; . . . :

Mortgage debt, net change :Mortage yields secondary marketMunicipal bond yields

N

National defense-See Defense.National Government-See Government.National income-SBe Income.New orders, manufacturers'

Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dot . , .Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dolConsumer goods and materials, constant dollarsContracts and orders, plant and equip., constant dol.Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. .Defense productsDurable goods industries, constant dollarsDurable goods industries, current dollars

ComponentsDiffusion index

New orders, manufacturing, 131Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI

Producers' durable equipment, constant dollarsStructures, constant dollarsTotal, constant dollarsTotal, percent of G NP

Obligations incurred, Defense DepartmentOECD, European countries, industrial productionOrders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.Output-See also Gross national product and

Industrial production.Goods output, constant doflarsLabor cost per unit of „Per hour, nonfarm business sectorPer hour, private business sectorPer hour, private business sector, percent changes...Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)Ratio to capacity, materials

Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing . .

619702010

662651

930930c9523

910910c95014104

91378

917

104105851G610210710833118117

2724620105487

964971

8786248

517721

4962358370370c83828421

23

3015,3030

10393616

1039363313,31

2(5

12,2120

11

13,3t313113,31.313131

3434

232312,2112,23235321

2015,3050505020202016

68

6/826/328/328/82

8/B28/82

11/819/8S>

8/8212/82

11/01

5/825/825/825/825/828/828/823/822/822/82

11/8211/8212/8212/8212/827/82

9/829/8211/8210/82

11/3111/312/828/H1

11/8111/ttl2/8212/B15/8K

393939

15t1518

15

is4440

28

8/828/828/8?8/828/8212/828/B28/82

8/821/82

9/829/829/8210/82

7/821/83

8/829/8212/82

2(26263232262626

2648

51515151

66

253961

NOTE: Cl, composite index; 01, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.*The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).


ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERUES FINDING GUIDE-Continued

Series titles(See complete titles in "Titles and Soufces of


Seriesnumber


Charts Tables

Historicaldata

(issue date)

Series

descriptions

(*)



Seriesnumber


Charts Tables

Historicaldata

(issue date)

Series

descriptions

(*)

Participation rates, civilian labor forceBoth sexes, 16-19 years of ageFemales 20 years and overMales 20 years and over

Person.il consumption expendituresAutomobilesDurable goods, constant dollarsDurable goods, current dollarsNondurable goods, constant dollarsNondurable goods, current dollarsServices, constant dollarsServices, current dollarsTotal, constant dollarsTotal, current dollarsTotal, percent of GNP

Personal income-See Income.Personal saving . , :Personal saving ratePetroleum and products, importsPlant and equipment-See also Investment, capital.

Business expenditures forBusinessexpendituesfor, Dl . . . .Contracts and orders for, constant dollarsContracts and orders for, current dollars

Population, civilian employment as percent ofPrice indexes

Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.All items, indexAll items, percent changesFood,indexFood, percent changes

Diifiators, NIPA ;Fixed weighted, gross business product, indexFixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changesImplicit price deflator, GNP, indexImplicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes

Industrial materials ;Industrial materials, componentsIndustrial materials, DlLabor cost, price per unit of .'Sensitive prices, change inStock prices-See also International comparisons.

500 common stocks500 common stocks, Dl .'

Wholesale pricesAll commodities, indexAll commodities, percent changeConsumer finished goods, indexConsumer finished goods, percent changesCrude materials, indexCrude materials, percent changesIntermediate materials, indexIntermediate materials, percent changes ;Producer finished goods, indexProducer finished goods, percent changes .

Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business ;Prices, selling

Manufacturing, DIRetail trade, DlWholesale trade, 01 : .

Prime contracts, militaryPrime rate charged by banksProducer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.Producers'durable equipment, nonresid., GPDIProduct ion-See Industrial production and GNP.Productivity

Output per hour, nonfarm business sectorOutput per hour, private business sectorOutput per hour, private business sector, pet., changes .

Profitability, ClProfits

Corporate, after taxes, constant dollarsCorporate, after taxes, current dollarsCorporate, after taxes, with IVA and CCA,constant dollar

Corporate, after taxes, with I VA and CCA, cur. dol. . . .Corporate, with IVA and CCACorporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income...Manufacturing and trade, DlManufacturing, DlPer dollar of sales, manufacturingProfitability, ClRatio, profits to corporate domestic incomeRatio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domesticincome . . ; :

Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAProprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc...

Quit rate, manufacturing .

453452451

55233232238236239237231230235

292293614

619702010EIQ

320320c322322c

311311c310310c23

967

92

19

330330c334334c331331c332332c333333c26

97697897752*

515151

22414141414141414147

464656

243812,232318

4949,594949

4848484828

372913,28

13,2837

4848484848484848484829

3838385335

25

358370370c916

1816

80792862879729601591622

81282283

50505011

2828

28284547383729n29294547

Rental income of persons, with CCARental income of persons, with CCA, percent of nationalincome

284

285

16

84,9584,958484

848484846979757069

6975

8585868685858686868670

7676769073

67

4/824/824/82

9/8210/8210/8210/8210/8210/8210/8210/8210/8210/82

11/8211/821/83

6/826/828/828/823/82

5/825/825/825/82

11/8211/8211/8211/821/82

1/8210/823/82

7/822/82

5/825/826/826/825/825/826/826/826/826/8210/82

1/821/821/824/822/82

9/82

12/8211/8211/8211/81

9/829/82

9/829/8210/8210/821/8212/826/8211/819/82

9/8210/8210/82

8/81

10/82

10/82

202020

50505050505050505050

585864

3434323220

59595959

5859494936

36'

60*

3636

59596060606060606060

49486446

61616115

3737

3737373748

38*1537

375656

18

57

57

Reserves, freeResidential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI

dential fixed investment, percent of GNPResidential structures-See Housing.Retail sales, constant dollarsRetail sales, current dollars

Salaries-See Compensation.Sales

Final sales, constant dollars 'Machinery and equipment sales and businessconstruction expenditures

Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollarsManufacturing and trade sales, current dollarsManufacturing and trade sales, DlRatio, inventories to sales, mfg. and tradeRetail sales, constant dollarsRetail sales, current dollars

SavingBusiness savingGovernment surplus or deficitGross saving, private and governmentPersonal savingPersonal saving rate

Selling prices-See Prices, selling.Sensitive prices, change inState and local government-See Government.Stock prices-See also International comparisons.

500 common stocks500 common stocks, Dt

Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order .Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,change

Surplus-See Government.

Treasury bill rateTreasury bond yields..

UnemploymentDuration of unemployment, averageHelp-wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio . . .Inijtial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insuranceInitial claims, avg. weekly, unemploy. insurance, Dl .Layoff rate, manufacturingNumber unemployed, civilian labor force

Both sexes, 16-19 years of ageFemales, 20 years and overFull-time workersMales, 20 years and overTotal unemployed

Quit rate, manufacturingUnemployment rates

15 weeks and overInsured, average weeklyTotal

Unfilled orders, manufacturers'Durable goods industriesDurable goods industries, change in

United Kingdom-See International comparisons.

Velocity of moneyGNP to money supply Ml , ratioPersonal income to money supply M2, ratio

Vendor performance

W

Wages and salaries-See Compensation.West Germany-See International comparisons.Wholesale prices

All commodities, indexAll commodities, percent changesConsumer finished goods, indexConsumer finished goods, percent changesCrude materials, indexCrude materials, percent changesIntermediate materials, indexIntermediate materials, percent changesProducer finished goods, indexProducer finished goods, percent changesSensitive prices, change in

Workweek of production workers, manufacturingWorkweek of production workers, manufacturing,

componentsWorkweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl .

213

5756973775954

295298290292293

1996878

114115

916059623

446445447444374

444543

10710832

330330c334334c331331c332332c333333c921

40

2414,222238272222

4646464646

13,28

13,283727

26

15,181712,163616

5151515118,5116

181818

2121

313112,21

4848484848484848484813,2812,16

36

6261617461

8989898962,8961

626262

6464

1/829/8210/82

11/8211/82

10/82

9/8211/8211/821/821/8311/8211/82

11/8211/8211/8211/82n/82

3/82

7/822/829/82

9/82

2/822/82

3/823/822/821/828/81

4/824/824/824/823/828/81

3/823/823/82

n/829/82

8/828/822/82

49

28282848283131

3758585858

60

363628

28

2019181818

202020202018

201820

2626

404028

5/825/826/826/825/825/826/826/826/826/823/827/82

595960606060606060606015

7/82

NOTE: Cl , composite index; Dl , d i f fusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.•The number shown indicates the page on which the series description appears in the HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (1977).


TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIESSeries are listed below according to the sections of this reportin which they appear. Series numbers are for identificationonly and do not reflect relationships or order among theseries. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data;"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole periodexcept when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"(end of quarter).

To save space, the commonly used sources listed below arereferred to by number:

Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau ofEconomic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors ofthe Federal Reserve System.

Following the source for each series is an indication of thepages on which that series appears. The "Series FindingGuide" also lists chart and table page numbers for eachseries.

I-A. Composite Indexes910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes

series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 106)(M).-Source 1 (10,39,60)

913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

914. Composite index of capital investment commitments(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

915. Composite index of inventory investment andpurchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M).-Source1 (11,60)

916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includesseries 104, 106, 110) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)

920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators(includes series 41 , 47, 51 , 57) (M). -Source1 (10,39,60)

930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includesseries 62, 70, 72, 91 , 95, 109) (M).--Source1 (10,39,60)

940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lag-ging composite index (series 930) (M).--Source1 (11,60)

1-B. Cyclical Indicators1. Average workweek of production workers,

manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (12,16,61,77)

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61)

3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61)

4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61)

5. Average weekly initial claims for unemploymentinsurance, State programs (M). -U.S, Department ofLabor, Employment and Training Administration;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (12,16,61)

6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goodsindustries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77)

7. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goodsindustries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and3 (21,64)

8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goodsand materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and3 (12,21,64)

9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial andindustrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-HillInformation Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by

Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission.This series may not be reproduced without writtenpermission from the source.) (23,66)

10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in currentdollars (M).-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill InformationSystems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau ofthe Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)

11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000manufacturing corporations (Q).—The ConferenceBoard (24,66)

12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysisand National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc. (12,23,65)

13. Number of new business incorporations (M) . -Dun &Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau ofEconomic Analysis and National Bureau of EconomicResearch, Inc. (23,65)

14. Current liabilities of business failures (M) . -Dun &Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72)

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, allmanufacturing corporations (Q)—Federal Trade Com-mission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Eco-nomic Analysis (29,70)

16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q) .~Source 1 (28,69)

18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . -Source 1 (28,69)

19. tndex of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . -Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)

20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-HillInformation Systems Company (12,23,66)

21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61)

22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domesticincome (Q).-Source 1 (29,69)

23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials(M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.(Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, thisseries may not be reproduced without written permissionfrom Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79)

24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goodsindustries, nondefense, in current doilars (M),-Source2 (23,66)

25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goodsindustries (M).-Source 2 (21,64)

26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarmbusiness sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3 (29,70)

27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goodsindustries; nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources1, 2, and 3 (23,66)

28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Source2 (25,67)

29. Index of new private housing units authorized by localbuilding permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67)

30. Gross private domestic investment, change in businessinventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source1 (26,42,68,81)

31. Change in book value of manufacturing and tradeinventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68)

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receivingslower deliveries (M).—Purchasing ManagementAssociation of Chicago (12,21,64)

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financialinstitutions and life insurance companies { M J . -American Colincil of Life Insurance; Federal NationalMortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing andUrban Development, Government National MortgageAssociation; National Association ot Mutual SavingsBanks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis • (32,71)

34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars ( Q ) . -Source 1 i (29,70)

35. Net cash flow^ corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source1 i (29,70)

36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68)

37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey(M).-Sources'2and 3 (18,51,62,89)

38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand andon order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2 (26,68)

i

39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30days and qver (EOM) . —American BankersAssociation i (33,72)

40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goods-producing industries—mining, manufacturing, andconstruction! (M).-Source 3 (17,62)

41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,establishment survey (M).-Source 3 (14,17,62)

42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (17,62)

43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sourees 2 and 3(18,62)

44. Unemployment rate, persona unemployed 15 weeks andover (M).-Sourtes 2 and 3 (18,62)

45. Average weekly, insured unemployment rate, Stateprograms (M).--U.S. Department of Labor, Employmentand Training Administration (18,62)

46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M),-~The Conference poard (17,61)

47. Index of industrial production, total (M).-Source4 ! (14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

48. Employee-hours ' in nonagricultural establishments(M).-Source 3 | (17,39,61)

49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q)-Source1 ' (20,63)

i

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source1 : (19,39,40,63,80)

51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dol-lars (M).-Source'l (14,19,39,63)

52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source1 i (19,63)

53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, andconstruction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and3 ( (19,63)

i

54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source2 i (22,65)

55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q). -Source 1 , (22,65)

i

56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M) -Sources 1 and 2 , (22,65)

57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars ( M ) . -Sources 1, 2, and 3 (14,22,65)

58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M)- -University ofMichigan, Survey Research Center (22,65)

59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M),-Sources 12, and 3 (22,65)


TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series

46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)(M) . -Sources 1, 2, 3, and The ConferenceBoard (17,61)

61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,total (Q).-Source 1 (24,67)

62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, totalmanufacturing—ratio, index of compensation ofemployees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,and supplements to wages and salaries) to index ofindustrial production, manufacturing (M).—Sources 1

and 4 (15,30,70)

63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector ( Q ) . -

Source 3 (30,70)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of nationalincome (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83)

65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, bookvalue, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Source

2 (27,68)

66. Consumer installment credit (EOM).—Source 4; FRBseasonally adjusted net change added to seasonallyadjusted figure for previous month to obtain currentfigure (35,73)

67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source

4 (35,73)

68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domesticproduct (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratioof current-dollar compensation of employees to realgross corporate product (Q).-Source 1 (30,70)

69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales andbusiness construction expenditures (industrial and com-mercial construction put in place) (M).—Source

2 (24,67)

70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars

(EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (15,27,68)

71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,in current dollars (EOM).—Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weeklyreporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4;

seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic

Analysis (15,35,73)

73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures(M).-Source 4 (20,63)

74. Index of industrial production, nondurablemanufactures (M).—Source 4 (20,63)

75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—

Source 4 (22,65)

76. Index of industrial production, business equipment(M).-Source 4 (24,67)

77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).—Sources 1, 2, and 3 (27,68)

78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68)

79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuationand capital consumption adjustments in current dollars(Q).-Source 1 (28,69)

80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuationand capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars(Q).-Source 1 (28,69)

81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuationand capital consumption adjustment*; to total corporatedomestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,70)

82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source

4 (20,64)

83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).—

Source 1 (20,64)

84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).—Source

4 (20,64)

85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71)

86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, totalnonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1(25,67)

87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidentialstructures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidentialproducers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . -

Source 1 (25,67)

89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, totalresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)

90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population ofworking age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3 (18,62)

91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks(M).-Sources 2 and 3 (15,18,62)

92. Chance in sensitive crude materials prices (PPI of crudematerials less agricultural products) (smoothed) (M).—

Sources 1 and 3 (13,28,69)

93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minusborrowings) (M).-Source 4 (33,72)

94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve(M).-Source 4 (33,72)

95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income

(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73)

96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries

(EOM).-Source 2 (21,64)

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturingcorporations (EOQ).-The Conference Board (24,66)

102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)

104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources1 and 4 (13,31,71)

105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,3,and 4 (31,71)

106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3,and 4 (13,31r71)

107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml(Q).-Sources 1 and 4 (31,71)

108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (31,71)

109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source4 (35,73)

110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers incredit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72)

112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Source 4;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (32,72)

113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).-Source4 ' (32,72)

114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills(M).-Source 4 (34,72)

115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M) . -U .S .Department of the Treasury (34,73)

116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of theTreasury (34,73)

117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The

Bond Buyer (34,73)

118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S.Department of Housing and Urban Development, FederalHousing Administration (34,73)

119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4

1-C. Diffusion Indexes

(34,72)

950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components(M).-Source 1 (36,74)

951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicatorcomponents (M).-Source 1 (36,74)

952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components(M).-Source 1 (36,74)

960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used bypermission. This series may not be reproduced withoutwritten permission from the source.) (35,75)

961. Diffusion index of average workweek of productionworkers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).—Sources 1

and 3 (36,74,77)

962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemploymentinsurance, State programs—51 areas (M),-Source 1and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and TrainingAdministration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau ofEconomic Analysis (36,74)

963. Diffusion index of number of employees on privatenonagricuttural payrolls-172-186 industries ( M ) . -

Source 3 (36,74)

964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,durable goods industries- 34-35 industries (M) .~

Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77)

965. Diffusion index of newly approved capitalappropriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries(Q) —The Conference Board (37,75)

966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries(M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78)

967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—

13 industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and

Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (35,75,79)

968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—52-82 industries ( M ) . - S t a n d a r d & Poor'sCorporation (37,75)

970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plantand equipment, total- 22 industries (Q).-Source

1 (38,76)

971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.(Used by permission. This series may not be reproducedwithout written permission from the source.) (38,76)

972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing andtrade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series maynot be reproduced without written permission from thesource.) (38,76)

973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series maynot be reproduced without written permission from thesource.) (38,76)

974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturingand trade-about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).~Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This seriesmay not be reproduced without written permission fromthe source.) (38,76)

975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturingand trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This seriesmay not be reproduced without written permission fromthe source.) (38,76)

976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.(Used by permission. This series may not be reproducedwithout written permission from the source.) (38,76)


TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade-about

400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.(Used by permission. This series may not be reproducedwithout written permission from the source.) (38,76)

978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about 400businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.(Used by permission. This series may not be reproducedwithout written permission from the source.) (38,76)

Il-A. National Income and Product30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business

inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source1 (26. 42, 68, 81)

50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q)-Source1 (19,39,40,63,80)

64. Compensation of employees as a percent of nationalincome (Q).—Source 1 (30,47,70,83)

200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source1 (40,80)

213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars(Q).-Source 1 (40,80)

217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . -Sources 1 and 2 (40,80)

220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source1 (45,82)

223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source1 (40,63)

224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (40,80)

225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . -Source 1 (40,80)

227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars(Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (40,80)

230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in currentdollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80)

231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dol-lars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80)

232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, incurrent dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80)

233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80)

235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percentof gross national product (Q)-Source 1 (47,83)

236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81)

237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in currentdollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81)

238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81)

239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,81)

240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dol-lars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81)

241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972 dol-lars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81)

242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, incurrent dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81)

243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81)

245. Gross private domestic investment, change in businessinventories, all industries, in current dollars ( Q ) . -Source 1 (42,81)

247. Gross private domestic investment, change in businessinventories, all industries, as a percent of gross nationalproduct (Q).-Source 1 (47,83)

248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source1 (47,83)

249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, asa percent of gross national product (Q).-Source1 (47,83)

250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;national income and product accounts (Q).-Source1 (44,82)

251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of grossnational product (Q).~Source 1 (47,83)

252. Exports of goods and1 services in current dollars;national income and product accounts (Q).—Source1 (44,82)

253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;national income and product accounts (Q),—Source1 (44,82)

255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;national income and product accounts (Q).-Source1 (44,82)

256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; nationalincome and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)

257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; nationalincome and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)

260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, incurrent dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81)

261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81)

262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services incurrent dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81)

263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81)

265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services asa percent of gross national product (Q).-Source1 (47,83)

266. State and local government purchases of goods andservices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81)

267. State and local government purchases of goods andservices in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81)

268. State and local government purchases of goods andservices as a percent of igross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83)

280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1 (45,82)

282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capitalconsumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1 (45,82)

283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capitalconsumption adjustments as a percent of nationalincome (Q).-Source 1 (47,83)

284. Rental income of persons with capital consumptionadjustment (Q).-Source II (45,82)

285. Rental income of persons with capital consumptionadjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83)

286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capitalconsumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1 (47,82)

287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capitalconsumption adjustments as a percent of nationalincome (Q).-Source 1 (47,83)

288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1 (45,82)

289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83)

290. Gross saving—private saving; plus government surplus ordeficit (Q).-Source 1 (46,82)

292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82)

293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent ofdisposable personal income (Q).—Source I (46,83)

295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits pluscapital consumption allowances with inventory valuationand capital consumption adjustments (Q).-Source1 , (46,82)

298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).—Source1 , (46,83)

Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q ) .~

Source 1 , (48,84)

311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product(Q).-SotTce, 1 (48,84)

320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Source3 ( (49,59,84,95)

322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84)

330. Index of producer prices, all commodities (M). -Source3 . (48,85)

331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for furtherprocessing: (M).-Source 3 (48,85)

332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, sup-plies, and components (M).-Source 3 (48,86)

333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment ( M ) . -Source 3 , (48,86)

334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods(M)-Source ,3 (48,86)

335. Index of producer prices, industrial commodities (M). --Source 3 (48,85)

340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (inmanufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,and seasonality (M).-Source 3 (49,87)

341. Index of real average hourly earnings of productionworkers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted forovertime (in manufacturing only), interindustryemployment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source3 (49,87)

i

345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,87)

346. Index of real average hourly compensation, allemployees, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source3 ' (49,88)

348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes (Q).—Source3 i (50,88)

349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract (Q),—Source 3 (50,88)

358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm businesssector (Q).-Source 3 (4W)

370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private businesssector (Q).--Source 3 (49,88)

Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, andUnemployment37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey

(M).-Sources i and 3 (18,51,62,89)441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M).—

Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, laborforce survey (M).'--Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

116 U. S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE ; 1983 380-993/110Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor

force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor forcesurvey (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

448. Number employed, part-time workers for economicreasons, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and

3 (51,89)

451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years

and over (JVI).—Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years

and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19years of age (M)-Sources 2 and 3 (51,89)

Il-D. Government Activities

500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national incomeand product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)

501. Federal Government receipts; national income and pro-duct accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)

502. Federal Government expenditures; national income andproduct accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)

510. State and local government surplus or deficit; nationalincome and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)

511. State and local government receipts; national incomeand product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)

512. State and local government expenditures; nationalincome and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (52,90)

517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred ( M ) . -U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonaladjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)

525. Defense Department military prime contract awards forwork performed in the United States (M).-U.S.Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller, WashingtonHeadquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureauof Economic Analysis (53,90)

543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligationsoutstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,Comptroller, Directorate for Program and FinancialControl; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (53,90)

548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products( M ) . - Source 2 (53,90)

557. Output of defense and space equipment ( M ) . - Source4 (54,91)

559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products(EOM).-Source 2 (54,91)

561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense pro-

ducts (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91)

564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services fornational defense (Q).-Source 1 (55,91)

565. National defense purchases as a percent of grossnational product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91)

570. Employment in defense products industries (M).—Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (55,91)

577. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty(EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,Washington Headquarters Services (55,91)

578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hireemployment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)

580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions andmilitary assistance (M).-U.S. Department of Defense,OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program andFinancial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau ofEconomic Analysis (54,91)

588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products

(M).-Source 2 (54,91)

Il-E. U.S. International Transactions

602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M) -Source 2 (56,92)

604. Exports of agricultural products (M).-Source 2;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (56,92)

606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source 2;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (56,92)

612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2 (56,92)

614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products ( M ) . -Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (56,92)

616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of EconomicAnalysis (56,92)

618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants(Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military(Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).—Source1 (57,93)

652. Income on foreign investments in the United States(Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(57,93)

668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers underU.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)

669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).-Source1 (57,93)

Il-F. International Comparisons

19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks(Ivi).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)

47. United States, index of industrial production, total

(W)-Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94)

320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items

(M).-Source 3 (48,59,84,95)

721. Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment, European countries, index of industrialproduction (M).—Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (Paris) (58,94)

722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94)

723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-StatisticsCanada (Ottawa) (58,94)

725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . -Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt) (58,94)

726. France, index of industrial production (M)—InstitutNational de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques(Paris) (58,94)

727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).—InstitutoCentrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94)

728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry ofInternational Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94)

732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M) .~Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonal-ly adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95)

733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—StatisticsCanada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjustedby Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96)

735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changesseasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis

(59,95)

736. France, index of consumer prices (M).—InstitutNational de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureauof Economic Analysis (59,95)

737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Instituto Centraledi Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonallyadjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96)

738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of thePrime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonallyadjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95)

742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M) -TheFinancial Times (London) (59,96)

743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada(Ottawa) (59,96)

745. West Germany, index of stock prices (IW).—StatistischesBundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96)

746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National dela Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

(59,96)

747. Italy, index of stock prices (M)-Instituto Centrale diStatistica (Rome) (59,96)

748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Tokyo StockExchange (Tokyo) (59,96)


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