dimension of d&a
DESCRIPTION
Dimension of D&A. Purely scientific Stakeholder utility Attribution – the competitors Falsification. Dimension of D&A. Purely scientific Statistical rigor (D) and plausibility (A). D depends on assumptions about “internal variability” A depends on model-based concepts. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Dimension of D&A
• Purely scientific• Stakeholder utility• Attribution – the
competitors• Falsification
• Purely scientific• Statistical rigor (D) and plausibility (A).• D depends on assumptions about “internal
variability”• A depends on model-based concepts.• Thus, remaining doubts exist beyond the
specified.
Dimension of D&A
• Stakeholder utility• Evidence that anthropogenic warming is
related to human drivers – serving as an arguments to implement broad global mitigation measures.
• Evidence that recent change is part of an ongoing (predictable) pattern, or not. Serving as information to guide regional and local adaptation measures.
Dimension of D&A
This is what we need to know more about
• Attribution – the competitors• Climate drivers – relatively easy; not too many
drivers, such as urbanization, aerosol, land-use.• Impact drivers – hardly dealt
with. Many drivers: eutrophication, pollution, overuse, regulation, globalization.
• Example: Baltic Sea ecosystems
Dimension of D&A
“Mini-IPCC” assessment on knowledge about climate change in the
Baltic Sea Basin
• Falsification• Which observations in the coming 5/10 (?) years
would lead to reject present attributions?• Suggestion: Formulate and freeze NOW
falsifiable hypotheses, and test in 5/10 (?) years time – using the independent data of the additional years.
• Suggestion: Have assessment done by scientists independent of those, who formulated the hypotheses.
Dimension of D&A