director , climate change programme department of science & … change... · 2014. 11. 5. ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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Director , Climate Change ProgrammeDepartment of Science & Technology
Government of IndiaEmail: [email protected]
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OutlineClimate Change at Global scale and in IndiaIndia’s current programmes and actions on Climate ChangeExtreme Weather Events and their Linkage with Climate ChangeDST’s Initiatives for Building Human and Institutional Capacities Summary
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Global Climate Change: Key Messages from AR5
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(IPC
C 2
013,
Fig
. SP
M.1
a)
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Annual Frequency of Natural Disasters
1950 – 2005
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1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire)
FloodStormEarthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption
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Recent Increasing Trends in Frequency of Natural Hazards
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Windstorms Floods
Extreme Heat Events Drought
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Observed Changes in Sea Surface Temperatures
NATL = North Atlantic WPAC = West PacificSPAC = South PacificEPAC = East PacificNIO = Northern IndioSIO = Southern Indio
Source: Webster et al. (2005), Science, 309
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Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8mm/yr and since 1993 at 3.1mm/yr
Changes in Sea Level since 1850 and Projection(IPCC 4thAR, WGI, Paris, 5.2.2007)
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Bangladesh is projected to lose about 16% of its land areawith a sea level rise of 1.5 m
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Sea-Water Inundation Example: MaldivesArea: 115 square milesPopulation: 143,000Highest point: 20 ft above sea level
Climate Change induced Sea Level Rise may inundate
some of the islands of Maldives
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Climate Change in India
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All-India Temperature Time Series
Source: India Meteorological Department, National Climate Centre, Pune
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All India SW Monsoon Rainfall (JUNE-SEPTEMBER)
-40
-30
-20
-10
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10
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40
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1878
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RAIN
FALL
( %
DEP
ARTU
RE )
INTER-ANNUAL MONSOON RAINFALL VARIABILITY
1899 1920 1965 1987
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Spatial patterns in Monsoon Rainfall Trends during past 100 years
Inferences: Mixed Trend- somewhere
increasing and somewhere decreasing
Chattisgarh and Jharkhand showing marked decreasing trends
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Goswami et al., Science, Dec., 2006
Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Rainfall
Low & Moderate events
Heavy events (>10cm)
V. Heavy events (>15cm)
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Number of Flash Flood Events in India (1980-2006)
Increasing Trend in Flash FloodEvents during past 25 years
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Total Number of Flood Events in India (1980-2006)
Decreasing Trend in Total Flood Eventsduring past 25 years
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Trend in the Frequency of Low Pressure Systems over India
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y = -0.0183x + 6.3291R2 = 0.1031
0
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Y E A R S
FRE
QU
EN
CY
Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of Cyclonic Storms over India during 1891-2006
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Decreasing Frequency of Total Number of Cyclonic Disturbances over India during past
120 years (1891-2009)
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Increasing Frequency of Total Number of Low Pressure Areas over India during past 123
years (1888-2009)
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Trend in the Sea Level Rise off Indian Coasts
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Trend in Sea Level Rise in India
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India’s Climate Change Programme
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National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC)
NAPCC- To fulfill India’s vision of sustainable development in the context of climate change, the Prime Minister’s Council (PMC) has launched the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) during September 2009 comprising of 8 national missions.
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Eight National Missions National Solar Mission National Mission for Enhanced Energy
Efficiency National Mission on Sustainable Habitat National Water Mission National Mission for Sustaining the
Himalayan Eco-system National Mission for a Green India National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for
Climate Change
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Eight National Missions on Climate Change
Of the total of eight missions under NAPCC, two were assigned to the Ministry of Science and Technology. They are -
National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate ChangeNational Mission for Sustaining the Himalayan Eco-system
Both call for such mission modeactions that build, strengthen andsustain national S&T capacities tosustain an ecosystem and self-learn fordeveloping strategic knowledge.
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National Programmes for Adaptation
National Programme on adaptation would focus: Agriculture Forestry Disaster management Water sector Coastal zones Health sector
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Extreme Events and their linkage with Climate Change
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Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Weather Events Climate Change could impact frequency
and severity of events on long term and not year to year No clear long term trend is observed in
this regard but a number of regions have reported increase in variability. Events which are directly connected to
temperature change have shown positive trends
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Extreme Events which are directly and indirectly linked to CC
Those extreme events which are directly linked to the warming are likely to increase- Heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfall (floods), etc. Those indirectly related are still doubtful
to have been impacted by climate change-Increase in number/intensity of cyclones, tornadoes, local severe storms, etc.
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Cyclone Phailin: Observed Track
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Microwave Imagery of Cyclone Phailin
EYE
EYE WALL
Cloud Bands
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Doppler Radar Imagery of Cyclone Phailin
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An unconfirmed cloudburst event, Glacier and moraine outbursts, Steep slopes associated with the terrain, Sudden gushing of water and debris into the valley regions, Flooding of rivers on account of incessant rain, Exceeding of carrying capacity of rivers, Major landslides,Panic reactions of people
Main Causes of Uttarakhand (Kedarnath) Deluge June 2013
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Kedarnath
High Resolution Satellite Imagery of Uttarakhand Disaster
(1) Blocked basin created by Moraine-a pool of water was built up
Flow from Glacier (2) overtopping of the moraine barrier- resulting in release of impounded water
(3) Trifurcation of Flow
(4) Main Channel of Flow
(5) Kedarnath Town struck by flow from 2 channels
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Uttarakhand Disaster vs Cyclone Phailin
Uttarakhand PhailinWx System Cloud Burst CycloneSize 50 km 1000kmPrediction Accuracy
Poor Very Good
Prediction time 6-12 hrs in advance
5-6 days in advance
Lead time for Disaster management
3-4 hrs 3-4 days
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VULNERABILITY MAPPING of areas with present and projected scenarios of climate change in relation to extreme events
DEVELOPING CAPACITIES TO ADAPT climate change in highly vulnerable regions
INCREASING CAPABILITY TO DETECT AND PREDICT extreme events with greater accuracy and longer lead time.
Deploying a MULTI-HAZARD INTEGRATED DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM
PUBLIC AWARENESS about possible impact of climate change and ways & means to cope up
How can we reduce the impact of Extreme Weather Events in the
Changing Climate?
How can we reduce the impact of Extreme Weather Events in the
Changing Climate?
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…thank you