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Disarmament Demobilization and ReintegrationExisting Evidence and Unanswered Questions

Michael J. Gilligan, New York University

+What is DDR?According to the Integrated DDR

Standards DDR is: Disarmament: “the collection,

documentation, control and disposal of small arms, ammunition, [etc.]

Demobilization: “the formal and controlled discharge of active combatants from armed forces or other armed groups”

Reintegration: “the process by which ex-combatants acquire civilian status and gain sustainable employment and income. Reintegration is essentially a social and economic process …”

+What do we mean by reintegration?Is economic reintegration (finding a livelihood) sufficient?

If we want to include social reintegration what do we mean by that? Repairing family relationships Reconciliation with communities Being good citizens Possessing mental and emotional health Respect for state authority Other criteria?

Success criteria must be established before we can hope to evaluate these programs

+Growth in DDR

+The theory behind DDRRebelling may be a lucrative quasi-

criminal activity. Giving ex-combatants another career may encourage them to forsake violence.

A better career will raise the opportunity cost of choosing to fight.

Reintegration programs may address inequalities that were a motivation for fighting in the first place.

People with good steady jobs become better citizens—they become invested in their communities.

+A big problem with the theoryDDR programs are meant to keep

people from returning to fighting but …Given that war is an inefficient means of

accomplishing goals in the first place and …

there are strong individual incentives to free ride rather than fight, …

do we really know why wars break out and why individuals choose to join armed groups?

If not how we can design a program to alter that choice?

+Does DDR Work?A strong prima facie case that the purely

technical components, demobilization and disarmament, are often effective

The evidence for the effectiveness of reintegration is much more difficult to find Humpreys and Weinstein 2007 Muggah 2009

Gilligan, Mvukiyehe and Samii (2010) have been able to establish a causal link between a reintegration program and economic benefits

+It may be difficult to agree on a universal set of success criteria for all DDR programsDRR programs have very different

strategic contexts and often different goals. Compare:Outright victory in Sri LankaNegotiated peace in NepalOngoing war in Colombia Externally enforced DDR in Afghanistan

These programs may have have different goals and therefore different success criteria

+But we must try to learn some general lessons from each program

Otherwise we will never be able to improve future programs

The trick is to devise an evaluation strategy that:1) assesses the success of each individual

program 2) takes into account specific characteristics

each particular strategic and cultural post conflict milieu and

3) answers necessary general questions about DDR

+What general questions?A remaining big question:We still need many more studies to see

if DDR programs really do encourage economic integrationOne study in one very specific

circumstance (Burundi) is not enoughThat study was not able to establish

whether the DDR program increased incomes by more than the amount given by the program.

+More general questions:Is the emerging consensus valid? An emerging consensus (Kingma and Muggah

2009): DDR should occur early in the peace process DRR programs should have “national

ownership” Community-based reintegration is superior

to individual-based reintegrationWhile they sound plausible none of

these claims has been tested

+More general questionsWhen is making use of combatant

command structures a help. When is it a hindrance?

When should combatants be separated from their units and when should DDR programs make use of that cohesion?

If DDR does promote economic integration does economic integration in turn lead to social integration? If so what are the mechanisms?

+SSR, Transitional Justice and PKOs DDR and SSR

When should DDR occur in conjunction with SSR and when should it not?

What should be the relationship between DDR and SSR activities?

DDR and transitional justice When should DDR occur in conjunction with transitional

justice programs and when should it not? What should be the relationship between DDR and

transitional justice programs. Should members of illegal armed groups be required to

make restitution? If so when?

DDR and PKOs Is DDR more successful in the presence of third-party peace

operations? How can we build ex-combatants confidence without such

missions?

+Conclusion: many more questions than answersDoes DDR lead to economic integration?Does DDR lead to social integration and

what is the link to economic integration?What should be the role of combatant

units and command structures?What is the value of community-based as

opposed to individual-based programs?What is the proper link with SSR,

transitional justice and PKOs (if any)

+At a more fundamental levelWe need to know more about why

people join armed groups in the first place

Without that knowledge we won’t know how to get people to choose not to join armed group when faced with the choice.

Only then will we have a convincing answer to the mother of all DDR questions: does DDR lead to prolonged peace and why?