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Report No. 81090-PK
Disaster Risk Management & Climate Change UnitSouth Asia Sustainable Development Department
Disaster Risk Management
Pakistan Strategy Note 2012 - 2016
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Report No. 81090-PK
Disaster Risk Management & Climate Change UnitSouth Asia Sustainable Development Department
Disaster Risk Management
Pakistan Strategy Note
2012 - 2016
THE WORLD BANK
Standard Disclaimer
All Rights Reserved
This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
Copyright © 2013 The World Bank / Pakistan20-A, Shahrah-e-Jumhuriat, G-5/1
Islamabad 44000, Pakistan
Disaster Risk Management 3
Contents
Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Introduction and Context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Evolution of DRM Structure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Role of International Development Partners. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Challenges in the DRM Sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Institutional Capacity and Clarity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Coordination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Understanding Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Bank's Strategic Approach to Advance DRM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Targeted Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Current Engagements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Planned Bank Engagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Bank Partners in Understanding Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Leveraging the Bank's Comparative Advantage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Risks to the DRM Program. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Unclear DRM Roles and Responsibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Weak Government Capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Ownership and Identification of Champions within the Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Figure 1: Targeted Bank Support to Government Priorities as Identified in the NDRMF . . . . . . . 9
Figure 2: Timeline of DRM Engagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Figure 3: Engagement with Bank Sector Teams . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Disaster Risk Management4
Acknowledgments
This strategy note was prepared by a core team comprising Marc S.Forni, Haris Khan, Shiraz Ali
Shah and Ahsan Tehsin.
The authors are grateful to the peer reviewers of earlier drafts of this note, including Raja Rehan
Arshad, Christoph Pusch and Niels B. Holm-Nielsen.
The authors would like to thank Rachid Benmessaoud, Bernice K. Van Bronkhorsht, Francis
Ghesquiere and Reynold Duncan for their guidance in finalizing this note.
The authors also express their gratitude for the cooperation and support received from Bank
colleagues, including, Inaam Ul Haq, Alanna Simpson, Javaid Afzal, Umbreen Arif, Sarwat Aftab,
Muqaddisa Mehreen, Jack Campbell, Kelly Johnson, Ayaz Parvez, Sonam Velani, Suhaib Rasheed,
Shabir Ahmad, Shahnaz Meraj and Samia Sardar.
Disaster Risk Management 5
Abbreviations
ADB
BDMP
CBDRM
DDMA
DFID
DRFI
DRM
EC
ERC
ERRA
FFC
GFDRR
GoP
JICA
MDTF
NDMA
NDRMF
NWG
PDMA
PDRP
PHRD
PID
SDN
UNDP
USAID
Asian Development Bank
Balochistan Disaster Management Project
Community Based Disaster Risk Management
District Disaster Management Authority
Department for International Development (UK)
Disaster Risk Financing & Insurance
Disaster Risk Management
European Commission
Emergency Relief Cell
Earthquake Reconstruction and Rehabilitation Authority
Federal Flood Commission
Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
Government of Pakistan
Japan International Cooperation Agency
Multi-donor Trust Fund for KP, FATA and Balochistan
National Disaster Management Authority
National Disaster Risk Management Framework
National Working Group
Provincial Disaster Management Authority
Partnership for Disaster Resilience in Pakistan
Policy and Human Resource Development
Provincial Irrigation Department
Sustainable Development Network
United Nations Development Programme
United States Agency for International Development
Disaster Risk Management6
Introduction and Context
Pakistan is vulnerable to a number of adverse natural events including earthquakes, cyclones,
tsunamis, floods, and droughts. These risks are further exacerbated due to growing urbanization and
shifting climatic patterns, resulting in extreme and unpredictable weather events. Pakistan has
experienced a wide range of major disasters in the past 40 years. The country is one of the most
flood-prone in South Asia, with a number of floods having caused significant damage, particularly in
1950, 1992, 1998, 2010 and 2011. In particular, the floods in 2010 and 2011 caused damages and
losses amounting to US$10 billion and US$3.7 billion, respectively. Earthquakes events are
frequent, with the last major one occurring in 2005 that killed 73,000 people and caused US$5
billion in losses. Most of Pakistan experiences low rainfall and as much as 60 percent of the country
is classified as semi-arid to arid, with the most susceptible regions experiencing drought 2 or 3 years
every decade. Recent droughts include those of 2000 and 2002, which severely impacted livelihoods
and forced thousands to migrate. Additionally, 14 cyclones have occurred over the past 40 years, the
last major event being Cyclone Yemyin in 2007, which caused damages amounting to US$537
million.
A consistent and long-term demographic shift of the population to urban areas and regions has
turned cities into the drivers of economic growth in Pakistan. However, growing urbanization has
also led to a greater exposure and vulnerability of urban population to disaster risks. Increased
urbanization has not necessarily been driven through systematic land-use and spatial planning or
conformity to building codes.
Climate change could increase Pakistan's vulnerability to disasters. Shifts in weather patterns can
result in an increase in glacial melt, sea level rise along Pakistan's coast, and increased periods
without precipitation. Glacial recession will also result in less water inflow to the Indus River Basin.
These factors may lead to an escalation in the intensity and frequency of flash floods, as well as
drought events that could compromise potable water supply, irrigation water and power generation.
A lack of understanding, as well as limited action by the government on Disaster Risk Management
(DRM) in Pakistan, further exacerbates the challenges in the achievement of development goals. To
achieve an acceptable level of resilience, policy-makers must clearly understand and manage the
risks that contribute to a disaster. The level of disaster resilience should be measured not just
through infrastructure built or services delivered, but also through lives saved and losses minimized
during a disaster event,
Disaster Risk Management 7
The objective of the Bank's DRM engagement is to support the Government of Pakistan's (GoP)
priority for improved institutional clarity and capacity in DRM, and understanding of disaster risk to
increase resilience. Increasing the capacity involves the streamlining of roles and responsibilities of
institutions, and strengthening operating procedures and protocols with the aim to mitigate risk, as
well as prepare for and respond to disasters events in a more coordinated manner. Increasing the
understanding of disaster risk is expected to lead to mitigation measures to reduce disaster
vulnerability.The first phase of this engagement is supporting the National Working Group (NWG)
on Risk Assessments to reach consensus on understanding of physical and fiscal disaster risk.
Increased understanding of vulnerable infrastructure and development would lead to the
development of a road-map for a multi-year investment program to increase disaster resilience.
Objective
Disaster Risk Management in Pakistan was historically governed by the Calamity Act of 1958.
Following a number of disasters, including the major Kashmir Earthquake in 2005, the GoPmade
concerted efforts towards establishing a holistic DRM framework. As a result, the National Disaster
Management Ordinance was issued in 2006, which established an institutional framework to
address DRM in the country, including the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). The
Ordinance was later superseded by the National Disaster Management (NDM) Act in 2010.
In the aftermath of the 18th Constitutional Amendment, DRM roles and responsibilities were
devolved to the provinces, which has compounded the fragmentation and proliferation of DRM
actors. Nominally leading provincial coordination, are the Provincial Disaster Management
Authorities (PDMAs). However, the PDMAs generally lack the human and technical capacity to
manage DRM activities, while they also lack financial resources and convening power.
Furthermore, the devolution of authority has resulted in a more limited and unclear role of NDMA
with regards tocoordination, technical assistance, and policy support. Compounding this confusion,
there are a number of entities working on DRM with overlapping mandates at the federal level,
including NDMA which falls under the administrative control of the Ministry of Climate Change;
the Earthquake Reconstruction & Rehabilitation Authority (ERRA), the Cabinet's Emergency
Relief Cell (ERC), the Federal Flood Commission (FFC), and other ad-hoc relief committees.
This multiplicity of institutions is also present at the provincial level, which include, PDMAs, the
Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs), Relief Commissioner's Office, and the Civil Defence and
Rescue Services. Similarly, there are a number of legal parameters covering disasters and
emergency situations that overlap between government agencies and tiers.
Evolution of DRM Structure
Disaster Risk Management8
Recurring disaster events in Pakistan over the last decade have resulted in increased donor
interventions. However, these interventions are primarily targeted towards humanitarian and
recovery activities, and are often perceived as investments in DRM. The existing engagement of
donors in the sector is limited by minimal financial resources spread too thin across various themes.
Lack of concentrated and material resources inhibits international partners from holistically
addressing DRM in Pakistan.
With regards to specific donors, the main actors are DFID, JICA, USAID and smaller non-
governmental organizations (NGOs). DFID is currently in the process of developing a DRM
program in collaboration with the Bank team, with potential resources between US$15 and $50
million. JICA is developing a National Disaster Management Plan which is now at the consultation
stage. USAID is preparing a Community based DRM program which it intends to implement
through NGOs. In addition, the UN is engaged in a dialogue with the government on a potential
program, for which funding sources are not yet clear. NGOs are also involved in limited community
based programs. To help keep Government and development partners informed of developments in
DRM, the Bank is part of the Partnership of Disaster Resilience in Pakistan (PDRP), which includes
the Bank, ADB, JICA, UN, US, EC and DFID.Additionally, the Political Champions Group has
been created to improve the visibility and focus on DRM in countries including Pakistan. The Group
meets regularly on the sidelines of the Bank's Annual and Spring Meetings and comprises: the heads
of UNDP, DFID, USAID, EC, JICA, and the VP of the SDN Network.
Three key challenges impede action in DRM, including: i) weak institutional clarity and capacity; ii)
limited effective coordination at the federal and provincial levels; and iii) lack of consensus and
understanding of disaster risk to inform decision-making and guide investments to build resilience.
The NDMA and the PDMAs are relatively new and weak
organizations that have limited funding capacity to convene line ministries and other government
agencies. The DMAs receive weak political support and are unable to engage with other sectors. A
high-rate of turn-over and staffing issues are also persistent across all DMAs. The District Disaster
Management Authorities (DDMAs) represent the weakest link in the institutional chain. Effectively,
DDMAs are inter-departmental committees at the district level, and are seldom operationalized,
other than when a disaster occurs. The capacity constraints are further exacerbated due to
insufficient communications systems and network of support available at the national, provincial
and local levels. Overall, institutional and technical knowledge to support mainstreaming DRM
remains limited.
Institutional Capacity and Clarity:
Challenges in the DRM Sector
Role of International Development Partners
Disaster Risk Management 9
Coordination:
Understanding Risk:
The multiplicity of institutions at both the federal and provincial levels has created
uncertainty and non-clarity regarding roles and responsibilities. The post-18th amendment context,
and devolution of DRM responsibilities to the provinces, has further created confusion on the roles
of NDMA and line ministries / agencies.This situation results in a lack of coordination which hinders
effective development planning and disaster response.
A comprehensive hazard and risk assessment is yet to be undertaken for the
country. There is a lack of essential risk information such as baseline data and risk profiles for
different geographic areas of the country, hampering policymakers from devising holistic DRM
interventions. There is an absence of a standard methodology for risk assessments, as well as very
limited collaboration between technical agencies. Furthermore the absence of a fiscal risk
assessment has also led to the underestimation of fiscal impact on disasters. Overall, a lack of
understanding of disaster risk hinders investment in resilience across sectors.
Targeted Support: The Bank's approach to DRM is proposed to be selective and focused. It aims to
support the top two government priority areas identified in the National Disaster Risk Management
Framework (NDRMF) and other policy documents: i) Institutional and Legal Arrangements and
Capacity; and, ii) Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment. Figure 1 presents the proposed approach
and detailed below is the Bank's current engagements to support the strengthening of these pillars.
Bank's Strategic Approach to Advance DRM
Figure 1: Targeted Bank Support to Government Priorities as Identified in the NDRMF
Current Engagements: In line with the overall objective, the Bank's targeted support is currently
focused on addressing two pillars of obstacles toward advancing DRM: i) improved institutional
clarity and capacity; and, ii) increased resilience.
Institutional and Legal Arrangements & Capacity
Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment
Training, Education and Awareness
Community and Local Level Programming
Disaster Risk Management Planning
Multi-hazard Early Warning Systems
Mainstreaming DRR into Development
Emergency Response Systems
Capacity Development for Post Disaster Recovery
Disaster Risk Management10
Under the first pillar, the Bank has the following projects under implementation:
Balochistan Disaster Management Project (BDMP): The US$5 million grant has been funded
through the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) to strengthen the capacity of PDMA Balochistan to
prepare for and respond to natural disasters. The project includes institutional strengthening of
PDMA Balochistan.
Strengthening Pakistan's Urban Disaster Response Capacity: The objective of this US$3 million
grant, financed by Government of Japan's Policy and Human Resources Development (PHRD) fund
is to develop appropriate methodologies and guidelines for assessing and subsequently enhancing
the capacity of two municipal agencies to engage in disaster response. This activity is particularly
important keeping in view the recurrent annual flooding disasters since 2010 in the country.
Under the second pillar, the Bank has the following projects under implementation:
Innovation in Risk Assessment and Financing: This US$2 million joint GFDRR and DFID grant
aims at supporting the government in advancing the understanding of risk and developing financial
protection strategies. The program will support the development of the country's data gathering, risk
modeling and risk financing capacities. This is the first and only national engagement of the Political
Champions group formed to raise awareness of the importance of DRM.
Development of a Program for Hazard and Risk Assessment in Urban Areas: The objective of this
US$500,000 GFDRR-funded activity is to increase the capacity for hazard and risk assessment in
Pakistan. It will be implemented in two pilot cities and is designed to contribute to the creation of a
replicable assessment framework for the country.
The Bank plans on further building on the activities under the two
pillars to address existing weaknesses. Under the first pillar, the Bank would continue to support
capacity building of DRM institutions, including the NDMA and PDMAs. This would also involve
scaling up the Balochistan project to other provinces to strengthen DRM systems at the provincial
level. Under the second pillar, the Bank plans on completing the ongoing initiative of understanding
of physical and fiscal risk, which would lead to implementation of a disaster risk financing program,
and the development of an investment program to reduce physical vulnerability through
infrastructure investments.
Figure 2 provides an overview of the DRM engagement over the course of this strategy (2012-2016):
Planned Bank Engagement:
Disaster Risk Management 11
Bank Partners in Understanding Risk: The DRM team is currently engaged with other Bank sector teams
to improve the understanding and consensus of physical and fiscal risk. Key collaborations are bulleted below
and Figure 3 provides an overview of this engagement. Collaboration with other sectors does not necessarily
translate into the mobilization of extensive resources; rather it builds on the work of each other.
· Social protection: Collaboration in immediate recovery efforts, with potential DRFI support to
manage the government's contingent liabilities.
· Finance and Private Sector Development: Joint effort to increase the capacity of catastrophe markets
and agreed to speak with one voice to the relevant actors. This will be achieved through regular
discussion and the sharing of analytical results to ensure a joined-up approach.
· Education: Collaboration in Sindh and Balochistan on resilient construction through the on-going
education sector programs. Additional support may be provided through the Safe School Program,
should these funds materialize for Pakistan
· Environment: Work to reach consensus within GoP on flood risk and streamlining flood response and
agreed to advance understanding of flood risk together.
· GFDRR: The Understanding Risk program in Pakistan is viewed externally as the global flagship
engagement for the Political Champions Group
2012
- Balochistan DRM
Project Approved
- National Working
Group on Risk
Assessment (NWG)
Notified
- Understanding Risk
Program Initiated
- DRM Strategy
Finalized
- Training and
Capacity Building of
NWG
- Disaster Fiscal Risk
Assessment
Completed
- Initiate National
DRM Institutional
Assessment
- Development of
Risk financing
instruments
- Establishment of
National Data
Platform for Risk
Assessment
- Develop program to
address institutional
constraints in DRM
at various tiers of
Government
2013 2014 2015 2016
- Development of
national disaster
resilience
investment program
based on results and
recommendations of
the NWG
- National program to
increase physical
resilience to natural
disasters
Figure 3: Engagement with Bank Sector Teams
Addressing fiscal risk
Social Protection support to disaster recovery
FPD insurance analysis
PREM fiscal impacts
Addressing physical risk
Education Support to safe schools
Water flood risk assessment
Urban Punjab risk management
Health structural vulnerability
and health systems
Figure 2: Timeline of DRM Engagement
Disaster Risk Management12
The Bank's broader experience in DRM ranges from preparedness and mitigation to responding to
post-disaster recovery and reconstruction challenges in many countries. In Pakistan, the Bank is
increasingly seen as an important player in DRM both by development partners and government,
particularly on providing support for carrying out risk assessments and establishing risk transfer
mechanisms.
The Bank's comparative advantage in the DRM sector is derived from a combination of the
following factors: i) technical capacity and global leadership on development and DRM; ii) capacity
to provide financial resources to increase physical resilience to disasters; iii) ability to crowd-in soft
resources from development partners due to fiduciary capacity and reputation as a leader in the field;
iv) demonstrated convening power to bring together scientific communities, donors, civil society
groups and government counterparts to address development challenges; and, v) ability to support
the program with concessionary financial resources and innovative financing products.
Several key risks for the implementation of the DRM program have been identified, based on current
and past country and sectoral experiences.
The absence of clarity of roles and responsibilities of
government institutions is a major challenge to the DRM program. However, the program itself
seeks to mitigate this risk through upstream activities such as development of procedures and
protocols. Overlapping roles of multiple government agencies can also potentially lead to duplicity
of the Bank's program vis-à-vis other donor-funded programs. However, this should be mitigated
through the Partnership of Disaster Resilience in Pakistan.
The DRM institutions at the federal, provincial and district levels
are at a nascent stage of development and are faced with considerable capacity challenges. In turn,
the weak capacity of these institutions contributes towards overall implementation risk of the Bank
program. The project level activities of the DRM program will seek to mitigate this risk through
provision of support for capacity building, particularly at the provincial level.
Since a recent paradigm
shift has been experienced in the government's approach to DRM, it is critical to ensure that
champions of change are identified within the government. The Bank has been, and will continue to
remain, in a regular dialogue with the government at all levels, so that DRM continues to remain a
priority for the government.
Unclear DRM Roles and Responsibilities:
Weak Government Capacity:
Ownership and Identification of Champions within the Government:
Risks to the DRM Program
Leveraging the Bank's Comparative Advantage