disaster risk reduction as a pillar of a national adaptation strategy: experience of project noah,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Disaster risk reduction as a pillar of a national adaptation strategy: experience of Project NOAH, Philippines
Carlo Arcilla and Mahar Lagmay
National Institute of Geological Sciences
University of the Philippines
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Civilizations exist,
with geologic consent.
(Will Durant)
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Disasters in the Philippines – one of the most vulnerable worldwide• Typhoons
• Floods
• Storm Surges
• Landslides
• Earthquakes
• Tsunamis
• Volcanic eruptions
• Politicians
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EQUATOR
TECTONIC AND GEOGRAPHIC SETTINGS OF THE PHILIPPINES
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Most of the disasters that have caused most life loss in recent years were extreme-rainfall related
• Guinsaugon landslide Typhoon Pablo
• Typhoon Haiyan (storm surge)
• Typhoon Reming
• Typhoon Frank
• Typhoon Milenyo
• Typhoon Ondoy
• Typhoon Pepeng
• Habagat
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Tropical Cyclones• 20 Typhoons enter
Philippines annually on average (most worldwide)• Metro Manila is actually
protected from TCs
• Sep, Oct riskiest months
• Fewer TCs in Nov and Dec but appear further south• More likely to hit land
110E 120E 130E 140E
5N
15N
25N
35N
0
1
2
3
4
Source: Dr. Eman Anglo
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Last week: Typhoon Nepartak
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Devastation of aquifers from super typhoon Haiyan’s storm surge
M. Bayani Cardenas, Philip C. Bennett, Peter B. Zamora, Kevin M. Befus(Matt Kaufman and Aaron Packman)
Dept. of Geological Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin
Raymond S. Rodolfo*, Hillel B. Cabria, and Mark R. LapusRidge to Reef Solutions, Inc., Philippines and *Ateneo de Manila Univ.
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Super Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan)
Study Site
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Simulation and animation courtesy of Maarten van Ormondt
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San Antonio
Simulation and animation courtesy of Maarten van Ormondt
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Nov. 1912 (4.6-9.1 m surge)
Oct. 1897 (0.4-7.3 m surge, 1,200-1,300 dead, churches destroyed)
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Photo: Boston.com
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TRMM, NASA
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http://www.boston.com
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http://www.boston.com
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http://www.boston.com
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http://www.boston.com
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http://www.boston.com
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Crowdsourcing before it was famous
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Massive debris flows triggered by Typhoon Pablo
(Bopha) on December 4, 2012 in New Bataan,
Compostela ValleyAlfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay1,2, Rodrigo Narod C.
Eco1,2, Jenalyn A. Alconis1, Mary Joy K. Gonzales1, Likha G. Minimo2, Tatum Miko L. Herrero2, Jerico E. Mendoza
1Eric C. Colmenares3, Ryanne Wayne H. Serrado2, Joy T. Santiago1, Kelvin S. Rodolfo4
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(Mathias Jacob, 2005)
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1.5 m
7.5-9 m
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DOST Project NOAH
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Project NOAH
• Nationwide Operational Assessmentof Hazards
• Latest government program to address the disaster problem in the Philippines
• Use of Science and cutting edge technology for furture resilience
• Turned 4 years old this month, saved THOUSANDS of lives already
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DOST PROGRAMS UNDER THE NOAH PROGRAM
Project NOAH
DREAM-LIDAR FloodNETHydroMet Sensors
Development
Hazard InformationMedia
Doppler System Development
Storm SurgeLandslides and Geohazards
HydroMet SensorsDevelopmentDREAM-LIDARFloodNETHazard Information
MediaLandslides
and GeohazardsDoppler System
DevelopmentCoastal Erosion
and Storm Surge
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DOST-Project NOAH launch6 July 2012
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1500+
sensors
AWS
ARG
AWLS
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1500+
sensors
AWS
ARG
AWLS
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714 sensors
AWS
ARG
AWLS
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Important: RAIN rate! (measured by Doppler radar and verified by on-land sensor)!
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Tropical Storm Gorio
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LIDAR• 300 km2 per day• 17 out of the 18
major riverbasins have Lidar mapped floodplains
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(Image from USGS website)
LIDAR Unit
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2m Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK
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1m Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK
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50cm Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK
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25cm Resolution
LIDAR DSM
Geomatics Group, Environment Agency UK
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Compostela Municipality Town Proper
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Compostela Municipality Town Proper
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Community scale maps, development planning, emergency planning, identifying blocked access routes, evacuation routes, safe a
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Safe relocation site
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Safe relocation site
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Safe relocation site
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Safe relocation site
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• Future flood hazard based on a 100 year rain return flood scenario is high
Safe relocation site
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• Projected flood level: up to 3 meters from the bottom of the river and nearby areas up to 2.5 meters.
Safe relocation site
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Success story
• Provided two warnings several hours in advance of incoming Habagatfloods
• 1007 mm of rain August 6-8, 2012
• Zero casualties in Marikina
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Lagmay et al., 2013
TY Pablo
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Real-time information
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Department of Science and TechnologyNationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards
DOPPLER RADAR
Yolanda Doppler Radar image as it traverses the central Philippines region
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High-resolution Hazard MapsFlood, Landslide and Storm Surge Hazard Maps simulated over Lidar and IfSAR topography
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Lidar
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Community scale maps, development planning, emergency planning, identifying blocked access routes, evacuation routes, safe a
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Safe Areas: 36.87%
NOAH Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge Hazard MapOrmoc City, Leyte
From Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge hazards
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Safe Areas: 41.04%
NOAH Landslide & Flood Hazard MapKananga, Leyte
From Landslide and Flood hazards
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NOAH Landslide, Flood & Storm Surge Hazard MapTacloban, Leyte
Safe Areas: 26%
TACLOBAN AREA – 106 SQ KMLANDSLIDE AREA – 50.2 SQ KMFLOOD AREA – 23.4 SQ KMSTORM SURGE AREA – 10.8 SQ KMTOTAL HAZARD AREA – 78.4 SQ KM
From Landslide, Flood and Storm Surge hazards
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Real time information and High-Resolution Hazard maps are used to save lives• Real-time information are used to provide hours in advance warning
• High Resolution maps are used to inform people where to safely go when there’s a warning
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AVOIDING DISASTERS
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NOAH success stories• Real-time information are used for warning hours in advance to complement
days in advance weather forecast models
• Hazard maps are used as reference to move to a “safe” place.
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Latest averted disasters• Typhoon Lando (Koppu) and Nona (Melor) extreme flood events
• Debris flows in Nueva Ecija and massive floods in Central Luzon
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Source: Interaksyon
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Highly successful predictions = 0 deaths but no news!• Good news is rarely news
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There are some natural disasters that one just steps aside and are avoided, which is part of adaptation!• E.g., how do you “adapt” to a debris flows?
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NOAH Data could check corruption!
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Source: DPWH report - Flood management master plan for Metro Manila
and surrounding areas
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MORE ACCURATE DEPICTION OF FLOODS IN THE METROPOLIS TO REALLY KNOW THE PROBLEM
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NOAH Partial list of awards
1. 2012 New Media digital heroes award2. 2012 Cyberpress best IT product of the year (NOAH app)3. 2013 Best Telecom Project in the recently 16th Telecom Asia Awards
(NOAH app)4. 2013 Future Gov Award (NOAH app)5. 2014 UN World Summit Award (WSA) for best mobile app for m-inclusion
and empowerment (ARKO app)6. 2015 International ICT award for Best Philippine Mobile App of the Year
(ARKO app)7. 2015 PCIEERD Outstanding Research and Development Award (ClimateX) 8. 2015 Manuel L. Quezon Gawad Parangal Award (Proj. NOAH)
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Local and International News
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Local and International News
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Cost of Project NOAH USD$ 40 MILLION!
• Filipino scientists trained in best universities developed local technology and determined only what was needed to be imported
• Dr. Mahar Lagmay (PhD Cambridge) – won European Geosciences Union Plinius medal award for disaster research in 2015
• Dr. CP David (PhD Stanford) developed rain-related disaster research
• Dr. Eric Paringit led LIDAR data acquisition
• Dr. Dennis Villorente led Filipino scientists who developed sensors and all data streamed into the INTERNET.
• We were doing crowdsourcing before it was popular
• NOAH accessible by mobile phone, apps, internet and distributed to local government units
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noah.dost.gov.ph
• Mobile app ARKO shows hazard maps (won international award)
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Important to tailor-make disaster resilience programs to local geologic and meteorological conditions• Ask help from experts who have extensive local data and are NOT
selling any programs/tools – even in disasters, we need transparency and truth in advertising!
• Satellite-based systems are great, but on-land sensors, detailed topography for flood and landslide and flood modelling, etc. are needed
• Collaborate with TELCOS to have data streamed into INTERNET and focused into vulnerable areas
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Take Home Points
• Importance of local, highly trained scientists who can direct and select technologies to employ re disaster reduction
• Packaged disaster programs may not work unless thoroughly informed by local realities
• Detailed topographical survey, (e.g., LIDAR) absolutely important• Satellite data very important, but not enough• Extreme rainfall is a killer due to landslides, floods, debris flows – Doppler
radar and interpretation important• On-land sensors, along with satellite, and Doppler streamed through NET,
to have ON-TIME WARNING SYSTEMS• Important of two-way information between LGU and warning agencies –
cooperation of TELCOS very important (information via cell tower network)
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Thank you!We can share our experience – [email protected]
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Bonus: Disaster data Can be used for resilienceMainstreaming CCA-DRR in communities for future resilience
• Save lives
• Comprehensive development plans / land–use plans
• Food security
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Not all ricefields get flooded
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Risk is the combination of the probability of an event and its
negative consequences.
Risk = f (Hazard , Exposure , Vulnerability
Disaster Risk Assessment
, Capacity)
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HAZARD DATA PREPARATION/CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION AND ANALYSIS
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1. Preparation of High Resolution Imagery and setting-up of GIS tools.
2. Digitization of existing land use data.
3. Data validation.
EXPOSURE(Land Use)
DATAGATHERING
ANDPROCESSING
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AERIAL IMAGE
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DIGITIZATION OF LAND USE DATA
- ROAD
- COMMERCIAL
- RESIDENTIAL
- AGRICULTURE
- OPEN SPACE
- INSTITUTIONAL
- Etc.
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ROAD
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COMMERCIAL
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RESIDENTIAL
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AGRICULTURE
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OPEN SPACE
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INSTITUTIONAL
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EXISTING LAND USE
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FINAL OUTPUT
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1. Urban Use
2. Natural Resource Production
3. Critical Point Facilities
4. Lifeline Utilities
5. Population
LAND USE EXPOSURE DATA PREPARATION
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RISK ANALYSIS
Urban UseNatural Resource
Production Critical Point FacilitiesLifeline Utilities Population
Risk = severity of consequence x likelihood of occurrence