dispatching safer flights using foras
DESCRIPTION
Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755. Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS. Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D. MITRE / CAASD April 2014. Flight Operations Risk Assessment System. Technology for Proactive Per flight Pre-flight Risk assessment - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Mike Hadjimichael, Ph.D.MITRE / CAASD
April 2014
Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS
Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited. 14-0755
![Page 2: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
| 2 |
Flight Operations Risk Assessment System
Technology for
ProactivePer flightPre-flight
Risk assessment
Awareness, Communication, Decision Aid, Mitigation Tool
![Page 3: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
| 3 |
A Little History
Flight Safety Foundation, ICARUS Committee, 1997
US Naval Research Laboratory
EVA Airways
MITRE Corporation
![Page 4: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
| 4 |
Publication
SAFETY TOOLS: Trees in the FORAS
AeroSafety WorldNovember 2013
DANNY C. HO, CHI-BIN CHENG, HUAN-JYH SHYUR AND MICHAEL HADJIMICHAEL
![Page 5: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
| 5 |
Benefits
Dispatch level pre-flight risk assessment
Instant overview of risk as a single number risk index
Full explanation and breakdown of risk components
Identifies actionable risk components available for mitigation
![Page 6: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
| 6 |
Levels of Use
• Corporate Management
• Dispatch, Crew
• Safety Department
![Page 7: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
| 7 |
How does it look?
Dispatcher Reviews &
Notifies Central Server
calculates Risk Index
SupportingOperations Databases
Safety Manager
ALERT!
![Page 8: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
| 8 |
Input
Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories:
– Crew Factors
– Sector (City-pair) Factors
– Aircraft Factors
![Page 9: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
| 9 |
Input
Approach and Landing Risk assessment risk variable categories:
– Crew Factors…….Crew database, Roster database, Flight information System
– Sector (City-pair) Factors…….Airport databases
– Aircraft Factors…….Maintenance databases
![Page 10: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
| 10 |
Output
Risk Index– Ranges from 1.0 to 10.0– Relative score– Compare to baseline (average)
Critical Parameter identification– Identify actionable over-limit parameters
10.0
1.0
![Page 11: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
| 11 |
Operational Example
EVA AirwaysTaipei, Taiwan
100 flights/day analyzed - Departure & Arrival3 flights/day get 2nd level review
![Page 12: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
| 12 |
FORAS Interface (EVA example)
![Page 13: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
| 13 |
Example: Single fleet, single route trend
![Page 14: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
| 14 |
Example: Single fleet comparison
![Page 15: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
| 15 |
What are the critical parameters?
![Page 16: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
| 16 |
Critical Parameters – City pair
![Page 17: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
| 17 |
Critical Parameter – One fleet
![Page 18: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
| 18 |
Method
![Page 19: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
| 19 |
Knowledge-based System
Experts Performance Data
Studies and Statistics
ForensicEvent Analyses
![Page 20: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
| 20 |
Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk City-Pair Risk Aircraft Risk
![Page 21: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
| 21 |
Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication Experience Stressors
City-Pair Risk
Length Airport En-route
Aircraft Risk
MEL Suitability
![Page 22: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
| 22 |
Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
… …
Experience
… …
Stressors
… …
City-Pair Risk
Length
… …
Airport
… …
En-route
… …
Aircraft Risk
MEL
… …
Suitability
… …
![Page 23: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
| 23 |
Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
… …
.
. .
.
.
Experience
… …
. .
.
Stressors
… …
. .
. .
. .
.
City-Pair Risk
Length
… …
Airport
… …
. .
. . .
. .
En-route
… …
Aircraft Risk
MEL
… …
Suitability
…
. .
.
. .
.
…
![Page 24: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
| 24 |
Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
… …
.
. .
.
.
Experience
… …
. .
.
Stressors
… …
. .
. .
. .
.
City-Pair Risk
Length
… …
Airport
… …
. .
. . .
. .
En-route
… …
Aircraft Risk
MEL
… …
Suitability
…
. .
.
. .
.
…
![Page 25: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
| 25 |
Risk Model: Decomposing Risk Factors
Approach & Landing
Risk
Crew Risk
Communication
… …
.
. .
.
.
Experience
… …
. .
.
Stressors
… …
. .
. .
. .
.
City-Pair Risk
Length
… …
Airport
… …
. .
. . .
. .
En-route
… …
Aircraft Risk
MEL
… …
Suitability
…
. .
.
. .
.
…
Computation Flows Upwards
![Page 26: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
| 26 |
Example Risk Factors (ALAR)
Conditions which lead to increased risk Examples (crew, sector, aircraft):
– Inter-crew communication– Crew experience– Experience at airport– Transient fatigue– Cumulative fatigue– Approach and Landing related MEL items– Sector length– ATC skill– Complex approach– Airport congestion– Visual Conditions
![Page 27: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
| 27 |
FORAS Foundation
Non-commercial promotion and distribution of FORAS. FORAS Fund to support aviation risk management Managed by a committee of trustees
Affordable access to FORAS Risk Assessment models Progressively priced based on fleet size Available installation and training Stand-alone or cloud-based installation Generic or customized risk models
![Page 28: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
| 28 |
FORAS Requirements
Crew Roster and Tracking Flight Information System, MEL data NOTAM access Internet access or optionally, dedicated computer.
![Page 29: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
| 29 |
FORAS Foundation Further Information
Contact Flight Safety Foundation
Mike Hadjimichael, The MITRE Corporation
Danny Ho, EVA Air
![Page 30: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
| 30 |
Summary
![Page 31: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
| 31 |
Model Benefits
Centralize safety knowledge
Connect human factors and risk.
Works with operations data, not FOQA
“Drill-down” to greatest risk contributors.
Customizable to each carrier’s operations.
![Page 32: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
| 32 |
Program Benefits
Pro-active approach to safety at the dispatch level.
Pre-flight risk assessment leads to
AwarenessCommunicationDecision AidMitigation
![Page 33: Dispatching Safer Flights Using FORAS](https://reader036.vdocuments.net/reader036/viewer/2022081507/56816515550346895dd792b0/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
| 33 |
Thank you
Further information
Flight Safety FoundationDanny Ho, EVA AirwaysMike Hadjimichael, MITRE Corporation