distribution of transnational terrorism among countries by income classes and geography after 9/11...
Post on 21-Dec-2015
218 views
TRANSCRIPT
Distribution Of Transnational Terrorism Distribution Of Transnational Terrorism Among CountriesAmong CountriesBy Income Classes And Geography By Income Classes And Geography After 9/11After 9/11
Reducing the Risks and Consequences of TerrorismCREATE ConferenceNovember 18, 2004
Walter Enders and Todd SandlerUniversity of Southern California
Research ObjectivesResearch Objectives
Does Homeland Security have an unintended Does Homeland Security have an unintended consequence of transferring terrorist attacks against consequence of transferring terrorist attacks against Americans to foreign venues?Americans to foreign venues?
Is America safer because of homeland security, Is America safer because of homeland security, while Americans are less safe?while Americans are less safe?
Transference of attacksTransference of attacks– When income based, then transference is anticipated When income based, then transference is anticipated
to be displaced from high-income countries (HICs) to to be displaced from high-income countries (HICs) to low-income countries (LICs) as HICs deploy enhanced low-income countries (LICs) as HICs deploy enhanced security measures.security measures.
– When geographically based, the displacement may be When geographically based, the displacement may be from a rich region to a poorer region (e.g., the Middle from a rich region to a poorer region (e.g., the Middle East or Eurasia). Terrorists may blend in better in East or Eurasia). Terrorists may blend in better in some regions and have more support.some regions and have more support.
* After 9/11, casual empiricism suggests a * After 9/11, casual empiricism suggests a transference from high- to low- income countriestransference from high- to low- income countries. .
PurposePurpose
Empirically evaluate with time-series methods Empirically evaluate with time-series methods (i.e., autoregressive intervention analysis) (i.e., autoregressive intervention analysis) whether terrorists have shifted their venue whether terrorists have shifted their venue based on target countries’ income or location, based on target countries’ income or location, given security upgrades in rich countries given security upgrades in rich countries following 9/11.following 9/11.– Partition countries by income classes over timePartition countries by income classes over time– Partition countries by geographyPartition countries by geography– Analyze four different time series of transnational Analyze four different time series of transnational
terrorism events: terrorism events: all incidents; incidents with all incidents; incidents with casualties; incidents with a US target; and casualties; incidents with a US target; and casualty incidents with a US target.casualty incidents with a US target.
Draw policy conclusionsDraw policy conclusions
Some ResultsSome Results
Contrary to expectations, there is no evidence of an Contrary to expectations, there is no evidence of an income-based post-9/11 transfer of attacks to low-income-based post-9/11 transfer of attacks to low-income countries, but there is a significant transference income countries, but there is a significant transference to the Middle East and Asia where US interests are, at to the Middle East and Asia where US interests are, at times, attacked.times, attacked.
The rise of fundamentalist terrorism has most impacted The rise of fundamentalist terrorism has most impacted those regions – the Middle East and Asia – with the those regions – the Middle East and Asia – with the largest Islamic population.largest Islamic population.
The end to the Cold War brought a “terrorism peace The end to the Cold War brought a “terrorism peace dividend” that varies by income and geography among dividend” that varies by income and geography among countries.countries.
Before 9/11, LICs had been experiencing the lion’s Before 9/11, LICs had been experiencing the lion’s share of transnational terrorism with relatively share of transnational terrorism with relatively few incidents in HICS. After 9/11, there has been few incidents in HICS. After 9/11, there has been a gradual escalation of attacks with some a gradual escalation of attacks with some increases in incidents involving a US target in all increases in incidents involving a US target in all three income classes.three income classes.
PreliminariesPreliminaries
Terrorism is the premeditated use or threat of Terrorism is the premeditated use or threat of use of violence by individuals or subnational use of violence by individuals or subnational groups to obtain a political or social objective groups to obtain a political or social objective through intimidation of a large audience beyond through intimidation of a large audience beyond that of the immediate victims.that of the immediate victims.
Domestic terrorism involves only the host country so Domestic terrorism involves only the host country so that the perpetrators, victims, financing, and logistical that the perpetrators, victims, financing, and logistical support are all homegrown. support are all homegrown. Implications for just the Implications for just the venue country.venue country.
Terrorist attacks that include perpetrators, victims, Terrorist attacks that include perpetrators, victims, targets, or interests from two or more countries targets, or interests from two or more countries constitute constitute transnational terrorismtransnational terrorism. Ramifications that . Ramifications that transcend the host country (e.g., 3/11 and 9/11). transcend the host country (e.g., 3/11 and 9/11).
More PreliminariesMore Preliminaries
We are interested in transnational terrorism We are interested in transnational terrorism before and after 9/11, insofar as this type of before and after 9/11, insofar as this type of terrorism poses the greatest concern for the terrorism poses the greatest concern for the global community.global community.
If two potential targets offer the If two potential targets offer the same expected same expected benefitsbenefits for the terrorists, then they will pick the for the terrorists, then they will pick the one with the smaller expected costs. When the one with the smaller expected costs. When the attack venues imply the same expected costs attack venues imply the same expected costs (adjusted for risks), the terrorists will choose the (adjusted for risks), the terrorists will choose the location with the greater expected benefits.location with the greater expected benefits.
Action by a country to secure homeland targets Action by a country to secure homeland targets may may fail to displace the attack abroad if the terrorists fail to displace the attack abroad if the terrorists sufficiently value the benefits to offset the greater sufficiently value the benefits to offset the greater expected costs.expected costs.
Pre 9/11 DevelopmentsPre 9/11 Developments
Rise of fundamentalist-based Rise of fundamentalist-based terrorism and increased terrorism and increased casualties.casualties.
Prior to 9/11, LICs experienced Prior to 9/11, LICs experienced most attacks and HICs most attacks and HICs experienced few attacks.experienced few attacks.
Post Cold War period and less Post Cold War period and less state-sponsored terrorism. Also a state-sponsored terrorism. Also a demise of many left-wing groups.demise of many left-wing groups.
DataData
ITERATE Event dataITERATE Event data For income classes, we first use the For income classes, we first use the
World Bank’s classification of countries World Bank’s classification of countries into LICs, MICs, and HICs. (Per-capita into LICs, MICs, and HICs. (Per-capita income classes).income classes).
Account for switches in income classes Account for switches in income classes over time. over time.
Geographical classification uses US Geographical classification uses US Department of State’s Patterns of Department of State’s Patterns of Global Terrorism into six regions.Global Terrorism into six regions.
Income Distribution & Income Distribution & TerrorismTerrorism
Figure 1: Location of Incidents by Income GroupPanel 1: All Incidents
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Panel 3: MIC Incidents
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Panel 2: LIC Incidents
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Panel 4: HIC Incidents
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
ObservationsObservations
Panels show an increase in Panels show an increase in incidents following 9/11, with LICs incidents following 9/11, with LICs and MICs showing a more marked and MICs showing a more marked increase.increase.
A decline around 1992.A decline around 1992.
Location of Casualty Location of Casualty Incidents by Income Incidents by Income GroupGroup
Figure 2: Location of Casualty Incidents by Income GroupPanel 1: All Casualty Incidents
inc
iden
ts p
er
qu
arte
r
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
10
20
30
40
50
60
Panel 3: MIC Casualty Incidents
inc
iden
ts p
er
qu
arte
r
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
10
20
30
40
50
Panel 2: LIC Casualty Incidents
inc
iden
ts p
er
qu
arte
r
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
10
20
30
40
50
Panel 4: HIC Casualty Incidents
inc
iden
ts p
er
qu
arte
r
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
10
20
30
40
50
ObservationsObservations
For LICs, casualty incidents rose For LICs, casualty incidents rose since the start of fundamentalist since the start of fundamentalist terrorism in 1979:4 until 1992 terrorism in 1979:4 until 1992 when it started to decline.when it started to decline.
Upward trend in LICsUpward trend in LICs
US Incidents by US Incidents by Income GroupIncome Group
Figure 3: Incidents with a US Target by Income GroupPanel 1: All Incidents with a US Target
incid
en
ts p
er
qu
art
er
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Panel 3: MIC Incidents with a US Target
incid
en
ts p
er
qu
art
er
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Panel 2: LIC Incidents with a US Target
incid
en
ts p
er
qu
art
er
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Panel 4: HIC Incidents with a US Target
incid
en
ts p
er
qu
art
er
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
ObservationsObservations
LICs generally suffered the largest LICs generally suffered the largest number of such attacks. There is number of such attacks. There is also a somewhat more also a somewhat more pronounced increase in these pronounced increase in these incidents in LICs after 9/11 incidents in LICs after 9/11 compared with other income compared with other income groups. groups.
Incident Types by LIC Incident Types by LIC GroupGroup
Figure 4: Proportion of Incident Types in the LIC GroupPanel 1: Proportion of Incidents in the LIC Group
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Panel 3: Proportion of Incidents with a US Target
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
Panel 2: Proportion of Casualty Incidents
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Panel 4: Proportion of Casualty Incidents with a US Target
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
ObservationsObservations
Proportion of attacks staged in Proportion of attacks staged in LICsLICs
Panels 1-3 a clear upward trend; Panels 1-3 a clear upward trend; not true of panel 4not true of panel 4
All four proportion series All four proportion series experienced a sharp decline experienced a sharp decline around 1999 and a sharp rise around 1999 and a sharp rise following. following.
Income Analysis Income Analysis ResultsResults For all incidents, fundamentalism caused a significant For all incidents, fundamentalism caused a significant
increase in transnational terrorism of 27.56 incidents increase in transnational terrorism of 27.56 incidents per quarter for LICs, a significant decrease of 4.75 per quarter for LICs, a significant decrease of 4.75 incidents in MICs, and no significant change for HICs. incidents in MICs, and no significant change for HICs. All three income classes experienced a significant All three income classes experienced a significant decline in transnational terrorism in the post-Cold decline in transnational terrorism in the post-Cold War period.War period.
No evidence of a substitution in overall transnational No evidence of a substitution in overall transnational terrorism from HICs to LICs following 9/11. terrorism from HICs to LICs following 9/11. Any long-Any long-run decline is concentrated in LICs.run decline is concentrated in LICs.
Some substitutions of US-directed attack with Some substitutions of US-directed attack with casualties to LICs following 9/11.casualties to LICs following 9/11.
Alternative Scheme based on 31 richest countries. Similar Alternative Scheme based on 31 richest countries. Similar results. results.
Incidents by RegionIncidents by Region
Figure 5: Incidents by RegionPanel 1: Western Hemisphere
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Panel 4: Asia
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
25
50
75
100
125
150
Panel 2: Europe
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
Panle 5: Africa
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Panel 3: Middle East
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
8
16
24
32
40
48
56
64
Panel 6: Eruasia
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
ObservationsObservations
Panel 1 and 2 show a sustained decrease in Panel 1 and 2 show a sustained decrease in transnational terrorism beginning in the early transnational terrorism beginning in the early 1990s for the West Hemisphere and Europe.1990s for the West Hemisphere and Europe.
Middle East displays an increase in Middle East displays an increase in transnational terrorism for the start of transnational terrorism for the start of the 1990s followed by a fall around the 1990s followed by a fall around 1993 and then an increase around 9/11. 1993 and then an increase around 9/11. A similar pattern for Asia.A similar pattern for Asia.
In panel 5 and 6, there is a jump in In panel 5 and 6, there is a jump in transnational terrorism in Africa and Eurasia transnational terrorism in Africa and Eurasia at the start of the 1990s, followed by at the start of the 1990s, followed by decreases and increases over the ensuing decreases and increases over the ensuing years.years.
Casualty Incidents by Casualty Incidents by RegionRegion
Figure 6: Casualty Incidents by RegionPanel 1: Western Hemisphere
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
5
10
15
20
25
30
Panel 4: Asia
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
Panel 2: Europe
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
5
10
15
20
25
30
Panle 5: Africa
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
5
10
15
20
25
30
Panel 3: Middle East
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 20000
5
10
15
20
25
Panel 6: Eruasia
inci
den
ts p
er q
uar
ter
1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20010
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
ResultsResults Upward trend of casualties in the Middle EastUpward trend of casualties in the Middle East
Rise of fundamentalist terrorism was associated with a Rise of fundamentalist terrorism was associated with a significant increase in terrorism in Africa, Asia, and the significant increase in terrorism in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, but not in other three regions.Middle East, but not in other three regions.
Post-Cold War period is associated with less transnational terrorism Post-Cold War period is associated with less transnational terrorism in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.in the Western Hemisphere, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
Africa, the Middle East and Asia experienced a significant Africa, the Middle East and Asia experienced a significant immediate decline in terrorism following 9/11.immediate decline in terrorism following 9/11.
There is a significant positive increase in the US-target There is a significant positive increase in the US-target attacks in the Middle East after 9/11. This result is attacks in the Middle East after 9/11. This result is suggestive of a transfer of US-targeted events from North suggestive of a transfer of US-targeted events from North America and neighbor-country venues to targets in the America and neighbor-country venues to targets in the Middle East, in keeping with the terrorists responding to Middle East, in keeping with the terrorists responding to augmentations in US homeland security.augmentations in US homeland security.
ConclusionsConclusions
While Americans are safer at home owing to While Americans are safer at home owing to enhanced homeland security, the vulnerability of US enhanced homeland security, the vulnerability of US people and property has increased following 9/11 people and property has increased following 9/11 not only in HICs but also in the Middle East and Asia.not only in HICs but also in the Middle East and Asia.
US actions to shore up soft targets must also US actions to shore up soft targets must also be directed at those HICs where American be directed at those HICs where American interests are now at heightened risk.interests are now at heightened risk.
US policy to assist LICs that request help does not go US policy to assist LICs that request help does not go far enough given the changing post-9/11 pattern of far enough given the changing post-9/11 pattern of terrorism.terrorism.
Moreover, alterations in the geographical Moreover, alterations in the geographical distribution of terrorist events following 9/11 must distribution of terrorist events following 9/11 must be taken into account when allocating assistance. be taken into account when allocating assistance.