district of columbia - | dme...april 26, 2016 presentation district of columbia office of planning...
TRANSCRIPT
April 26, 2016 presentation
District of Columbia Office of Planning POPULATION TRENDS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Peop
le L
ivin
g in
the
Dis
tric
t
Year
Forecasted Growth
Highest District Population
Between 2000 and 2015 the District added 100,000 people.
2
Total Population as of 2015 was
672,228
Renewed Population Growth
Source: US Census Bureau and MWCOG Cooperative Forecast
Between 2000 and 2015 households
increased citywide with the highest
levels of growth in:
Mount Vernon TriangleCapital RiverfrontU Street Columbia HeightsNoMaLogan CircleFoggy Bottom
aa
b
bc
c
d
d
e
e
f
f
g
g
3Source: MWCOG Cooperative Forecast
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Increase
Annual Deaths
4,698
Annual Births
9,264
Births and Deaths in the District
Source: DC Department of Health4
-10,000
0
10,000
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Migration
Total Migration
Net International Migration
Net Domestic Migration
Migration to the District
Source: US Census Bureau
5
Median Income adjusted
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
Median Income in the District
Source: US Census Bureau 2015 Dollars
6
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Blakc and White
Black Population
White Population
Racial Composition of the District
Source: DC State Data Center
7
Annual dataDecennial data
Educational Attainment 18-24 year olds
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Educational Attainment 25 and up
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
18 to 24 year olds
25 and up
Bachelors and AboveSome CollegeHigh SchoolLess than HS
2014 Educational Attainment
Educational Attainment
8
Source: US Census Bureau 2014 1 year ACS
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ward 1
Ward 2
Ward 3
Ward 4
Ward 5
Ward 6
Ward 7
Ward 8
White PopulationBlack PopulationAsian PopulationOther PopulationLatino Population
Race and Ethnicity in the District
Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS
9
42% - 95%27% - 41%12% - 26%2% - 11%
42% - 95%27% - 41%12% - 26%2% - 11%
2005-2009 2010-2014
Poverty in the District
Source: US Census Bureau 5 year ACS
Percent of People in PovertyPercent of People in Poverty
10
$95,000 - $231,000$68,000 - $94,000$39,000 - $67,000$0 - $38,000
$136,000 - $210,000$62,000 - $135,000$32,000 - $61,000$0 - $31,000
2010-20142005-2009
Median Income in the District
Source: US Census Bureau 5 year ACS11
67% - 95%30%- 66%2% - 30%
Educational Attainment 25 and Up
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ward 8
Ward 7
Ward 6
Ward 5
Ward 4
Ward 3
Ward 2
Ward 1
Percent of Population over 25 with a Bachelors Degree or Higher
Educational Attainment
Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS
12
12%-27%7%-11%2%-7%0%-2%
English as a Seccond Langue
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Ward 8
Ward 7
Ward 6
Ward 5
Ward 4
Ward 3
Ward 2
Ward 1
Population that Speaks English Less than “Very Well”
Population that Speaks English Less than “Very Well”
Source: US Census Bureau 2014 5 year ACS
13
90,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year
Declines in the District’s youth population between 2000 and 2010
have been reversed.
Youth Population (Ages 0-17)
Source: US Census Bureau Census and Estimates14
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0-2 Years
3-4 Years
5-10 Years
11-13 Years
14-17 Years
Youth Population Composition
Source: DC State Data Center15
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0-2 Years
3-4 Years
5-10 Years
11-13 Years
14-17 Years
Youth Population Composition
Source: DC State Data Center
Between 2000 and 2010 a 36% decline in 5-10 year olds accounted
for most of the youth population loss
16
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
0-2 Years
3-4 Years
5-10 Years
11-13 Years
14-17 Years
Youth Population Composition
Source: DC State Data Center
Between 2010 and 2014 the 5-10 year old youth population has
grown by 16%
17
Youth Population Trends
Source: US Census Bureau18
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Black Youth
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Latino Youth
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014
Under 5 10 to 14 years
15 to 19 years5 to 9 years
White Youth Black Youth
Latino Youth
5,139-8,6111,939-5,1380-1,938
Currently the youth population
is largest in mid-city
neighborhoods and far south east.
Youth Population 2010-2014
19 Source: 2010-2014 ACS
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Peop
le L
ivin
g in
the
Dis
tric
t
Year
Forecasted Growth
Highest District Population
Over the next 15 years the District is likely to reach a new peak population
above 800,000 residents.
Continued Growth is Likely
Source: US Census Bureau and MWCOG Cooperative Forecast20
Between 2015 and 2030 households are expected to continue to grow city wide with the highest levels in:
NoMaCapitol RiverfrontFlorida Avenue MarketFort TottenHill EastLower Georgia AveWaterfront EdgewoodBrentwood
aa
b
bc
c
h g
d
d
e
e
f
f
g
h
g
g
Source: MWCOG Cooperative Forecast21
3,279-5,2811,772-3,278575-1,771
Brightwood, Crestwood Petworth
Columbia Heights, Mt. Pleasant, Pleasant Plains, Park View
Congress Heights, Bellvue, Washington Heights
aa
b
b
cc
Areas of Significant Forecasted Growth
Youth Population 2015-2022
22
forecast assumptions• By Age 5
• 1/3 of children are anticipated to move out of the District.• 1/2 of Children in Central Washington are anticipated to move
to single family neighborhoods.• 1/5 are anticipated to stay in Central Washington, in single family
neighborhoods with house prices between $500,000 and $800,000.
• The positive trends regarding the attraction and retention of households with children will continue.
23
Forecast limitations• OP’s Youth Population Model Limitations
• Over sensitive to higher income households• Uses a previous long range forecast of population that
underestimated growth. • Young professionals are likely under estimated for the next 10
years.
24
Key Takeaways• The District as a whole is growing, and our latest forecast
suggests we will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
• The citywide median income is increasing, but these income gains remain unevenly distributed among the Wards.
• Our youth population has been on a growth trend since 2010.
• Since 2010, the population of 0-10 year olds has grown significantly while the 11-17 age cohort has remained static.
• There maybe opportunity to maximize the aging-up of elementary age children to try to capture them at middle and high school.
25
For More Information Contact
Rogelio Flores Facilities Planner
e: [email protected] p: 202.741.0815
Joy Phillips, PhD Associate Director, DC State Data Centere: [email protected] p: 202.442.7630