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Page 1: Dividend Stock Guide - Value Invest Asia€¦ · DIVIDEND STOCK GUIDE 5 ValueInvestAsia.com “It is definitely a good platform to share and learn from people who come from di˚erent

By: ValueInvestAsia.Com

Weapon OfMass Dividends5 DIVIDEND STOCKS TOGET YOU STARTED

Dividend Stock Guide

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Dividends Don’t Lie 1

About Value Invest Asia 2

About VIA CLUB 3

About Value Investing In Asia:The Definitive Guide To Investing In Asia 6

Bank of China Limited 8

CapitaLand Mall Trust 1 1

Frasers Property Limited 15

HSBC PLC 19

Heineken Malaysia 21

CONTENT

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One of the most e�ective ways to get yourself started investing is through a dividend yielding approach. Dividend investing combines both capital and income growth potential for the stock investor. This investment concept branches out from value investing principles. We can do it by identifying solid companies with strong economic moats, modest valuation and of course, attractive dividend yields.

The importance of dividends in a portfolio cannot be overstated. As the saying goes, “A bird in hand is worth two in the bush”. The main reason investors are willing to risk their capital in the stock market is to get a return on their investment. This return can be the cash dividends which investors are getting. Many times, investors have underestimated the power of an income portfolio. Income generated from dividends can be enjoyed to pay for any immediate expenses like simply spending it on a family trip. More importantly, it can even be reinvested to produce even stronger cash flow in the future!

Of course, there remains the di�culty in searching for some of these hidden dividend gems. It should be noted that some of these dividend stocks reflect their own unique profile of value. Some might have the potential to can grow and compound their earnings, some might just be temporarily disliked by the market, thus presenting opportunities for bargain hunters like ourselves.

We at Value Invest Asia has specially designed an investment process to help uncover several of these gems, thereby turning a stock portfolio into an unstoppable dividend machine. Here are some of the top dividend payers which we have critically identified to help you get started. So read on!

Regards,Willie Keng, CFACo-Founder

DIVIDEND STOCK GUIDE 1

ValueInvestAsia.com

DIVIDEND DON’T LIE

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DIVIDEND STOCK GUIDE 2

ValueInvestAsia.com

Value Invest Asia is a financial media company that is created to provide independent and straight-to-the-point research on the financial market. Our founders are avid investors. In fact, Value Invest Asia wants to create content that we will want to know ourselves as investors. That is why all our contributors must be active investors themselves.

When we are starting out in investing, we realised that it is extremely hard to find reliable and quality research on Asian companies.

Unlike the US market, where you can find detailed information about any company with a simple search, that was hardly the case in Asia. Still, we are optimistic about the future of Asia, on how it would become the #1 economy in the world in our lifetime. With that, we should also see the rise of more Asian businesses to the world stage, where we as investors can take part in.

Yet, most of the financial advice available in the market is skewed with tons of conflict of interests. Most financial advisors were and still are incentivised to maximise their own commission instead of the welfare of their clients. Most fund managers are still underperforming even basic passive index funds.

Thus, Value Invest Asia is here to bridge that gap, to provide the information necessary for investors to make informed decisions when investing in Asia. We want to ensure that all our content are created for investors, by investors.

ABOUT VALUE INVEST ASIA

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DIVIDEND STOCK GUIDE 3

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Within Value Invest Asia, we run an exclusive members-only investment club; the VIA CLUB. In this club, members are able to get access into our research database. Every week, we will share with you our latest reports, on companies we are researching on, investment education or even our current views on the market. We look into the important aspects you need to know as an investor, cutting down the time needed for you on your research and bringing you up to speed with what is happening in the market.

We also track the personal portfolio of our co-founder, Stanley Lim. Every month, Stanley will update the status of his portfolio, including live trade alert of every trade he made. There are tons of other feature like premium podcast features for our flagship “The Asian Mavericks” podcast, where we go around Asia to interview founders, business leaders and investors in the region.

Lastly, we have an internal community of hundreds of investors, sharing their views about stocks and providing support and valuable insight for one another. We always believe in the power of many, instead of researching on stocks by yourself, why not research it with hundreds of like-minded investors like yourself?

You can find out more about VIA CLUB here!

ABOUT VIA CLUB

Features of VIA CLUB

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TESTIMONIAL FOR VIA CLUB

“VIA CLUB provides a platform for me to interact and learn from the expert and experience investors. Stanley, the co-founder of VIA, has been sharing good information and knowledge on investments and also his thought on the current happenings and developments of companies that we have invested or on watch list. The membership is value for money.”

Choy WHMalaysia Investor

“The analysis provided through VIA club are easy to consume and understand, and you know it's absolutely trustworthy, given how transparent Stanley is with his own portfolio showing. It's almost impossible to find other stock sharing sites that live up to their commitment where the quantitative portfolio matches up to the qualitative nature of the analyses.”

Hwee KianSingapore Investor

“I love VIA club because of the constant engagements and updates. I think its a membership that brings great value for most investors be it the novice or the expert. Glad to be part of the club and I look forward to a continued membership.”

Tan KHMalaysia Investor

“There are many like-minded investors in the group and we learn from each other.”

Vincent OngMalaysia Investor

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DIVIDEND STOCK GUIDE 5

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“It is definitely a good platform to share and learn from people who come from di�erent backgrounds and disciplines. I would certainly recommend to anyone who wishes to learn more about investing in good companies.”

Goon TLMalaysia Investor

“VIA weekly articles and interactive Facebook discussion has been valuable in getting a heads-up on the current stock market and discovering true gems in the market. I have benefited mostly in VIA's investing principles and I really like the idea of being a stock collector! Thank you VIA!”

JenniferSingapore Investor

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DIVIDEND STOCK GUIDE 6

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ABOUT VALUE INVESTING IN ASIA: THE DEFINITIVE GUIDE TO INVESTING IN ASIA

The philosophy behind how we select our Stock Guide stocks is detailed within our book “Value Investing In Asia: The Definitive Guide To Investing In Asia”.

It is a practical guidebook on how to apply value investing in the Asian stock market. It includes many of our own real-life case studies on our past and present investments. The book includes a step-by-step walkthrough on how we screen for and select real-life case examples on how we invest within the Asian stock markets. We have also interviewed many of the best fund managers around Asia and written down their secret to success in investing in Asia.

The book is written by our Co-founders; Stanley Lim and Cheong Mun Hong.

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PRAISE FOR VALUE INVESTING IN ASIA

“The book is a great contribution to the investing society. Stanley and Mun Hong have been able to put together the valuable experiences and wisdom of many Asian outstanding fund managers!”

Dr. Tan Chong KoayExecutive Chairman, Phiem Asset Management

“This is not just a book about value investing. Instead, it is a manual for value investing with an Asian twist that investors with an eye on the fastest-growing region in the world will reach for whenever they have questions that need answers.”

Dr. David KuoCEO, The Motley Fool Singapore

“Stanley Lim and Mun Hong have skillfully weaved three things together in this book for the Asian investor: the key principles of value investing, where to identify the investment opportunities and the mine fields to side step in Asia. With these skills, the investor can start investing in Asia.”

Mr. Wong Kok HoiFounder & CIO, APS Asset Management

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BANK OF CHINA LTD

• Ticker : 3988: HK / SHA:601988• Exchange : Hong Kong Stock Exchange / Shanghai Stock Exchange• Market Capitalisation : HKD 1,000 Billion (31st Dec 2018)• Revenue (TTM) : CNY493.56 Billion (Sep-2018)• Net Income (TTM) : CNY 180.2 Billion (Sep-2018)• Price to Earnings : 5.0 X• Type of Value : Earnings

The Business

Bank of China is one of the oldest financial firms in China. It is founded back in 1912 with the approval of Dr. Sun Yat-Sen, the father of modern China. It was created to serve as the central bank of China, a role it took on from 1912 to 1949.

The bank was then transformed into a state-owned commercial bank in 1994 and was listed in 2004. It is now one of the largest financial firms in the world, deemed as one of the “too-big-to-fail” institutions.

Bank of China plays an important role in China’s ambition of becoming a global financial powerhouse. According to the company, it is following the government plan of becoming a key global financial firm by the year 2035. It is quoted that Bank of China has a long-term objective in bringing the Chinese financial industry to the world level:

“The realisation of our strategic goal requires a three-step approach. By 2020, when China completes the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects, the Bank will have further consolidated its development foundation, cemented its unique advantages, improved its systems and mechanisms, and enhanced its overall strength. By 2035, when China basically realises modernisation, the Bank will have transformed from a large, high-ranking bank to

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a strong, top-tier bank, thus becoming a world-class bank in the new era on all fronts. By 2050, the Bank will have become a “financial treasure” of a great modern socialist country, and will serve as a paragon of the global financial industry.”

The Advantage of Bank of China

Today, Bank of China is a leading Chinese bank with the largest international exposure. In 2017, close to 30% of its profit before tax is coming from outside mainland China (but including greater China region) and about 6.8% of its profit before tax is derived from international markets.

This is because the bank is the key clearing bank for the Renminbi internationally, controlling more than 25% of the global RMB clearing business. And as China opens up to the world and the RMB becomes more international, clearing volume of the RMB would be increasing as well, directly benefiting clearing bank like Bank of China.

Risks

There are huge uncertainties surrounding Chinese banks at the moment. There are concerns with the leverage level within the economy of China and the threat of shadow-banking industry imploding. However, Bank of China is not as badly a�ected due to its low level of o�-balance sheet lending business and it has a strong deposit base.

Its non-performing loans have been stabilising at about 1.43%. Its net interest income has been increasing together with a higher percentage of businesses from personal loans, which is considered to be a safer asset for the banks. Generally, there are some risks involved in the financial sector in China, but Bank of China can be considered as one of the banks that have the balance sheet and reputation to survive a sector downturn.

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Financial & Valuation

Bank of China has been growing its net revenue at 8.7% a year from 2008 to 2017. Its net profit has been growing 11.7% a year over the same period. Although profit and revenue have been slowing, the company continues to maintain a strong return on equity, combining with a stellar balance sheet.

However, due to the macro negativity on China and its financial sector, the bank is trading at just 5.0 times its earnings and 0.6 times its book value. This means that we are getting a chance to invest in a growing company that is backed by the government and deemed too big to fail, at one of its lowest valuation ever. On top of that, we will be getting a 6.2% dividend yield yearly as well.

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DIVIDEND STOCK GUIDE 1 1

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CAPITALAND MALL TRUST

• Ticker : SGX: C38U• Exchange : Singapore Exchange• Market Capitalisation : SGD 8.33 Billion (31st Dec 2018)• Revenue (TTM) : SGD 689.5 Million (Sep-2018)• Net Income (TTM) : SGD 681.2 Million (Sep-2018)• Price to Earnings : 12.0 X• Type of Value : Earnings

The Business

CapitaLand Mall Trust is the largest Real Estate Investment Trust in Singapore. It has an asset base of more than SGD10 billion, including some of Singapore’s most iconic retail properties.

Source: Company Website

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The REIT owns 15 properties including:

1. Tampines Mall2. Junction 83. Funan Mall4. IMM Building5. Plaza Singapore6. Bugis Junction7. JCube8. Lot One Shoppers’ Mall9. Bukit Panjang Plaza10. Clarke Quay11. The Atrium@Orchard12. Bugis+13. Bedok Mall14. Westgate Mall15. 40% Stake in Ra�es City Singapore

The REIT also owns a 12.7% stake in CapitaLand Retail China Trust, a property REIT focusing on retail properties in China. In 2018, the key contributors to the REITs are Ra�es City Singapore, Plaza Singapore, IMM Building, Bugis Junction and Tampines Mall, each contributing more than 10% of the REIT’s net property income.

CapitaLand Mall Trust has demonstrated over the years that it has a strong management team that is able to extract and maintain good value from its properties. Its occupancy rates in its properties have always stayed above 97% for the most part of the past decade. It has turned around underutilised malls like Bugis+. CapitaLand Mall Trust has definitively proven themselves to be one of the best REITs in Singapore.

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Financial & Valuation

CapitaLand Mall Trust has been growing its revenue at a 3.2% rate every year since 2008. After the global financial crisis in 2008, when the REIT was faced with a massive dilution due to a credit squeeze in its refinancing, CapitaLand Mall Trust has since been rebuilding its distribution for its investors. Since 2009, its distribution per unit has been growing at about 7.1% a year till 2017.

Its growth has been slowing over recent years due to its redevelopment progress with Funan Mall and also the slowdown in the retail industry due to the rise of e-commerce in Singapore. The REIT has a price to book ratio of around 1.16 times at the moment, slightly above its 1.1 times average price to book ratio over the past five years. It is also o�ering a 5% distribution yield. However, we do feel that CapitaLand Mall Trust has some strong prospect ahead of itself that could see it growing its distribution even more.

Growth

CapitaLand Mall Trust has a history of improving distribution for investors through acquisition or asset enhancement initiatives (AEI). And in 2019, we will see two major boosts for CapitaLand Mall Trust. Firstly, Funan Mall is finally set to reopen after a long redevelopment. Before the redevelopment, Funan Mall is one of the largest malls within its portfolio, contributing SGD 34 million a year in gross revenue. That is about 5% of the Trust’s revenue. Given that the redevelopment

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would have increased the value of Funan Mall, the revenue expected from the mall, when it reaches maturity, should be at least 5% of the current portfolio. Thus, that could be significant growth potential for CapitaLand Mall Trust.

Secondly, the REIT has just announced a full acquisition of the remaining 70% stake in Westgate Mall. After the acquisition, Westgate Mall will also become one of the largest malls for the REIT. Although the manager is not expecting any increase in distribution per unit at the beginning as the acquisition is mostly funded by debt, as the debt is paid down in the future, Westgate Mall could become a key contributor to the trust’s distribution as well. In our estimation, it could increase the Trust’s DPU by another 3%-5% in the future as well. Therefore, CapitaLand Mall Trust is well-positioned to enjoy increasing DPU for the next few years to come, allowing investors to enjoy an increased yield.

Risk

It is not all rosy for CapitaLand Mall Trust. The retail REIT continues to face a number of challenges. The threat of e-commerce continues. The REIT is seeing very slow growth in its tenants’ sales in recent years. Its rental rate has been flat as well. In fact, some of its properties, including Ra�es City Singapore is seeing a decline in its rental rate in recent years. Given that Ra�es City Singapore is one of its key and most iconic properties, the decline in rental rate is concerning.

Secondly, interest rates are increasing, CapitaLand Mall Trust has an average cost of debt of just 3.1% at the moment with a term of maturity of 5.2 years. As the REIT refinances its debt, it could be at a higher rate, resulting in an increased cost for them. From our calculation, an increase of 1% in interest cost can return in a drop in 5%-10% in its distributable income. Fortunately, as the REIT has some growth potential in the near future, it should be able to mitigate some of these risks better than its peers.

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FRASERS PROPERTY LTD

• Ticker : SGX: TQ5• Exchange : Singapore Exchange• Market Capitalisation : SGD 4,800 Million (31st Dec 2018)• Revenue (TTM) : SGD 4.31 Billion (Sep-2018)• Net Income (TTM) : SGD 758.96 Million (Sep-2018)• Price to Earnings : 5.0 X• Type of Value : Earnings

The Business

Frasers Property Ltd is a property conglomerate that has assets globally. It counts Singapore, Australia and Europe as its key markets, with more than S$26.8 billion worth of assets in these three markets.

Source: Annual Report

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Apart from its development business, Frasers Property owns a wide range of investment properties, directly, through joint ventures and also through its ownership in its sponsored trusts. The company owns 41.9% of Frasers Centrepoint Trust (a retail-focused REIT), 25.2% in Frasers Commercial Trust (a commercial-focused REIT), 20.7% in Frasers Logistics and Industrial Trust (Industrial-focused REIT) and 23.6% in Frasers Hospitality Trust (Hospitality -focused trust).

Through its investments, Frasers Property is able to achieve a stable base of income, with 80% of the group’s total assets are generating recurring income and 65% of the group’s operating profit is coming from recurring sources.

Moat of Frasers Property

Frasers Property is one of the few property companies that have a fully integrated business model. It is able to develop its properties which have distribution points to sell worldwide. On top of that, it has a complete range of assets classes managed under its REITs, thus when the company need to recycle any commercial assets it has, it can sell it directly into its REITs, freeing up more capital to grow the company.

Apart from CapitaLand Limited, there is no other company in Singapore with the same type of business model.

Future Prospect

Frasers Property is a listed subsidiary of TCC Assets and Thai Beverage Public company. The TCC Assets Group is owned by the Sirivadhanabhakdi family, one of the richest family in Thailand. They also have a huge staple of properties within their own group and we are starting to see Frasers Property being used to consolidate these assets as well. This means that Frasers Property could become the main property company for the Sirivadhanabhakdi family, creating an even larger and integrated property conglomerate in the future.

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Financial & Valuation

Over the past five years, Frasers Property was able to grow its revenue by 18.3% year on year from 2014 to 2018. Over the same period, its operating profit before fair value gains also increased at 8.5% year on year. However, due to the slowdown in the property sector, its net income has not been increasing meaningfully during this period.

All these have put pressure on the stock price of the company. Frasers Property is trading at only 5 times its earnings (including fair value gains) or 9.6 times its earnings (excluding fair value gains).

The company trades at about S$1.63 per share, significantly under its book value of S$2.53 per share. Given that much of its income is coming from recurring sources, the company can be seen as an alternative to investing in its REITs. And its 5.3% yield is definitively a competitive dividend rate compared to its REITs. By investing in Frasers Property instead of its REITs, we could get a more diversified exposure with property assets across all assets classes and geography. We would be able to get to enjoy any future growth in its development business as well.

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Risks

So Frasers Property is a diversified property company with a solid recurring income source. Yet, there is one key risk with the company that is almost unavoidable. Given that property is a very capital intensive business, Frasers Property has been using a huge amount of debt to fund both its operations and its acquisitions.

The company has a net debt-to-equity ratio of close to 85% and an interest coverage ratio of 5.0 times. That is a relatively high debt level. Comparing it with CapitaLand Limited with a net debt-to-equity of only 30% and interest coverage of more than 10 times, Frasers Property is a significantly riskier company. However, due to the more aggressive management, Frasers Property also has a slightly better prospect in growing its asset base in the future. This could be another classic case of high-risk, high-return on a stock.

Given that the company is already yielding about 5.3% from its dividend, our expectation on the company is close to a 10% return for investors over the longer term (inclusive of dividend).

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HSBC HOLDINGS PLC

• Ticker : HKG:0005; LON:HSBA; NYSE:HSBC; EPA:HSB• Exchange : Hong Kong Stock Exchange; London Stock Exchange,

NYSE; Paris Stock Exchange• Market Capitalisation : About HK$ 1.32 Trillion (Feb 2019)• 2018 TTM Revenue : USD 64.5 billion• 2018 TTM Profit : USD 10.8 billion

The Business

Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation, or HSBC, is one of the few truly globalised banks. It has a presence in every continent in the world except Antarctica. It provides a wide range of financial services to individual and corporations worldwide, from retail banking, corporate banking, investment banking to wealth management.

SWOT Analysis

Strength

HSBC has a long history and a strong brand in the financial sector. With its global reach and a full range of services, the company is a “one-stop shop” for many companies doing international businesses. It is also one of the few foreign banks that has a strong presence in China. This might give it a good position to help Chinese companies expand overseas.

More importantly, its strong branding creates trust in customers, the most critical aspect of any financial firm.

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Weakness

However, being big might not always be an advantage. HSBC has been targeted by many governments for its role in the global financial crisis or other money laundering charges. Given its size, it becomes an easy target for governments to pursue, in order to put a point across to the whole industry. The firm has been charged multiple times over the last few years and has racked up fines running into the billions. Unfortunately for HSBC, being big can be a weakness too.

Similarly, it is being monitored and regulated by many agencies and the government. This might prevent it from moving quickly to address new market trends or to compete with smaller, more flexible competitors.

Lastly, given its huge global footprint and size, it is now part of the “too-big-to-fail” banks. Yet, that might also cause it to be a “too-big-to-grow” bank. The bank might face di�culties in growing significant for its investors.

Opportunities

Given its global network, HSBC is very well positioned to help companies, especially China-based companies currently, in expanding overseas. Additionally, due to the current weak interest rates environment and after a long series of facing regulatory fines, HSBC could see a recovery in its business as interest rates rise in the future. This is because, a bank typically earns a spread, called net interest margin between the cost of their funds and the interest rate it charges to customers. With a rising interest rate environment, there is a good chance that the bank would be able to increase that spread as well. Thus, boosting its profit margin.

Threat

As mentioned above, the regulatory risk would be a key threat for the company. HSBC is being watched closely by authorities around the world. Therefore, it would need to be very careful in running its business.

Additionally, the finance industry is starting to face disruption from technology as well. The recent rise in Fintech, technology companies focusing on the finance industry, might become a threat to the traditional business of banking. This have been witnessed in other industries; similar to how Airbnb and Uber have disrupted the hotel and taxi businesses.

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HEINEKEN MALAYSIA BERHAD

• Ticker : KLSE:HEIM• Exchange : Bursa Malaysia• Market Capitalisation : RM 6.4 Billion (Feb 2019)• 2018 TTM Revenue (TTM) : RM 1.98 Billion• 2018 TTM Profit (TTM) : RM 276 Million

The Business

Heineken Malaysia Berhad is one of the only two licenced breweries in Malaysia, together with Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia. The company has a long history in Malaysia as Guinness Anchor Berhad and was founded back in 1964 in Selangor Malaysia. Its parent company, GAPL Pte Ltd was taken over by the Heineken Group back in 2015. GAPL Pte Ltd is the 51% shareholder of Guinness Anchor Bhd. Since then, the Heineken Group has renamed Guinness Anchor Berhad as Heineken Malaysia Berhad.

The company now produces and owns about a dozen brands. Some of its more popular beer brands in Malaysia are Tiger Beer, Guinness, Heineken and Anchor.

Strength and Opportunity

Heineken Malaysia has a long track record of stable growth. Its earnings per share have actually grown by 6.3% annually since 1990 to 2016. Revenue and earnings are extremely stable due to the consumer staple nature of alcoholic beers. Even during the global financial crisis period, earnings per share continued to grow from 37 sen per share (2007) to 47 sen per share (2009).

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The company has a very simple-to-understand business model. It manufactures and distributes its beer, stout and cider throughout Malaysia. The market is still growing due to the younger population mix in Malaysia and the growing a�uent of the market.

Its operating margins have been very consistent at around 10% to 15%, showing us that it has been able to easily pass on its cost increase to the consumer. Even during 2016 when the government increased its tax duty on alcoholic products, Heineken Malaysia was able to raise the price on the exact date when the duty started into e�ect. This showed its strong pricing power in the market.

On top of that, the company is only distributing about a dozen brands at the moment. Yet, its parent company, Heineken Group, has a portfolio of hundreds of brands within its arsenal. As the market matures, Heineken Malaysia could easily tap on its parent company’s portfolio to grow a wider product range as well.

Weakness and Threat

Having said that, Heineken Malaysia still operates in a highly regulated industry. Close to 50% of its revenue is set aside for tax and duties paid back to the government. Any policy changes in the future could strongly a�ect the business.

In addition, Malaysia is still battling with a large contraband issue. All these contraband products are smuggled into the country without paying tax and duties. That means it could be priced significantly lower than the company’s product. This is an on-going struggle for the company and would continue to be an issue going forward.

Type Of Value To Be Extracted

We see Heineken Malaysia as a company with Current Earnings Power Value. It has a stellar track record of stable growth over the past 2 to 3 decades. The market is still growing and we expect decent growth rate from the company going forward.

Valuation

With its stable earnings, we tend to view the company through the lens of its price to earnings and dividend yield rate. It is currently trading around 23 times its earnings and providing a 4.3% dividend yield. Over the past decade since 2005, the company has been trading around 11 to 30 times its earnings. Thus, it can be considered to be trading around its mid-valuation range at the moment.

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