do political connections reduce job creation? evidence from lebanon

Do Political Connections Reduce Job Creation? Evidence from Lebanon

Ishac Diwan and Jamal Ibrahim HaidarHarvard University

Economic Research ForumDecember 21, 2016

Motivation• Why do firms in some countries not create more jobs?

• Do political connections affect job creation at the firm-level?

• An assessment is needed for two opposing mechanisms:• Privileged firms may have an obligation to pay back the favor by providing jobs for their constituencies• Unfair privileges to particular firms can reduce the incentives of their competitors to innovate and grow

• The case of Lebanon serves the purpose of this study: • Sectarian oligarchs whose power rests on the distribution of clientelistic rents• Politicians in Lebanon find employment for their constituents in exchange for votes

• Three quarters of university students surveyed by LCPS thought political connections were important to find jobs; 20% said that they had used them.

• This paper:• Analyzes the micro foundations of employment growth in Lebanon• Examines whether PCFs affect job creation by similar non-PCFs

Related literature• Regulatory rents are at the basis of political settlements (Shleifer and Vishny, 1994).

• Deals rather than rules characterize corporate environments in developing countries (Hallward-Driemeier and Pritchett, 2016).

• Political connections of firms affect firm value, behavior of lenders, corporate transparency, tariff evasion, state capture, and capital controls:

• China (Cull and Lixin, 2005), Malaysia (Johnson and Mitton, 2003), Pakistan (Khwaja and Mian, 2005), Indonesia (Fisman, 2001, Leuz and Oberholzer-Gee, 2006), Brazil (Claessens et al., 2008), Tunisia (Rijkers et al., forthcoming), and Egypt (Diwan et al., 2015)

• Inverted U-shape relation between competition and growth (Aghion et al., 2001)

• The effect of privileges on job creation has not been studied yet.

Main findings• Large firms account for the bulk of net job creation in Lebanon.

• The transition of firms between size groups, after starting-up, is limited.

• PCFs are larger and create more jobs, but are also less productive and pay higher wages, than non-PCFs within their sectors.

• PC firms dominate the sectors in which they operate.

• PCFs reduce net job creation at the sector level by affecting growth of non-PCFs.

• For every additional PCF in a sector, 6.8 % less jobs are created each year on average in that sector.

What’s next?

• Dataset• Empirical analysis

Dataset• Firm-level census data (MoF)

• Time period: 2005-2010

• Comprehensive coverage: all (141000) formal firms and sectors on annual basis: no size threshold

• Quality check: compare MoF data to the CR data

• Variables:- ID, sector, date of birth, capital, output, wages, and number of employees

• Data on names and owners of firms (CR)

Dataset

• Only formal firms that pay taxes and declare labor that pay social security contributions

• In 2010: 775,540 compared to 777,000 workers (ILO) in TLF in formal sector• ILO report 613,000 informal workers, mainly in micro enterprises in Lebanon

• To correct for weaknesses related to reporting errors, we dropped: • false firms: ones with high volatility in output per worker• firms with reporting errors – i.e., born in 2007 but paying taxes in earlier years• a total of 4.6% of the firms originally reported, 1.1% of which are false firms

Identifying politically-connected firms

• Developed a list of PC individuals

• Defined a person as PC if she or he is:• a parliament member, minister, or president who was in office between 1992 and 2010;

a direct family member; or a publicly-known friend of any of the above

• Used the Commercial Register at the MoJ to identify PCFs• CR: sector, date of birth, paid in capital, and owners of firms

• Matched all the PCFs that we found in the CR with the MoF dataset• Focused on all firms with at least 50 employees in at least one year between 2005-2010

and that include at least one owner that is in our list of PC individuals

• Identified 497 PCFs in 29 out of 289 4-digit sectors

Identifying PCFs• No way to capture ALL PCFs, but unlikely that any what we call PCF is not

• Two types of errors• Incorrect exclusion (Type I) error, i.e., due to different spellings of names

• Ignore titles and allow for common spelling variants • False inclusion (Type II) error, i.e., due to matching a firm to a politician but

the match is incorrect as, for instance, different people may share the same name.

• Match on the owner’s first, middle, and last names before classifying a firm as PC

• Under-match if firms are PC through indirect means• underestimates of the true effect

• Ownership does not change in our database

Large share of labor works in relatively large firmsFirm size and employment distribution (annual average, 2005-2010)

Number of employees

Number of firms % of firms Number of jobs % of employment Age

1* 93370 76.38 93370 13.78 5.982 5674 4.64 11349 1.67 6.863 4332 3.54 12996 1.92 6.744 3287 2.69 13148 1.94 6.805 2317 1.90 11583 1.71 6.90

6-9 4974 4.07 35944 5.30 7.0010-19 3915 3.20 52093 7.69 7.4520-49 2535 2.07 76733 11.32 7.8150-99 933 0.76 64364 9.50 8.31

100-199 469 0.38 65253 9.63 8.65200-999 391 0.32 150573 22.21 8.80>=1000 41 0.04 90407 13.34 9.32

Total 122237 100 677812 100 * represent self-employed firms

There is a trend toward larger sizes1 2 3 4 5

6-9

10-1

9

20-4

9

50-9

9

100-

199

200-

999

>=10

00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Percent of firms (2005-2010)

1 2 3 4 5

6-9

10-1

9

20-4

9

50-9

9

100-

199

200-

999

>=10

00

0

5

10

15

20

25

Percent of jobs (2005-2010)

Employment is concentrated in old firmsTotal employment by firm size and age: 2005-2010 (annual averages) Size

Age 1* 2 3-4 5-9 10-49 50-99 100-999 >=1000 Total Share (%)

0 6717 439 783 891 1109 192 767 0 10611 1.57

1 6620 623 1453 2050 3061 741 1686 0 16234 2.40

2 6629 634 1576 2569 4424 1422 2649 530 20079 2.96

3 6778 675 1703 2948 5784 2085 3824 1789 24988 3.69

4 6700 699 1783 3214 7117 2657 6171 2875 30258 4.46

5 6671 686 1776 3456 8316 3065 8516 3353 34721 5.12

6 7054 720 1846 3626 9590 4238 12307 3152 42009 6.20

7 9963 1303 2850 5109 12962 6056 19543 8656 63556 9.38

8 9222 1352 3056 5719 16594 8718 29220 10892 84773 12.51

9 8018 1184 2664 4984 15488 8701 29833 12186 83058 12.25

10 7174 1066 2356 4450 14512 8241 29822 13339 80960 11.94

>=11 11826 1968 4299 8509 35844 21934 86092 48085 186564 27.52

Total 93371 11351 26143 47526 128826 64364 215826 90407 677812

Share (%) 13.78 1.67 3.86 7.01 19.01 9.50 31.84 13.34

* represent self-employed firms

Firm growth is limited0

2040

6080

100

sectors(2-digit)

1person-1person 1person-exited1person-micro 1person-SME

020

4060

8010

0

sectors (2-digits)

micro-micro micro-1personmicro-SME micro-large

020

4060

8010

0

sectors(2-digit)

SME-SME SME-1personSME-micro SME-large

020

4060

8010

0

sectors(2-digit)

large-large large-SMElarge-micro

Note: Micro=(2-9 employees), SME=(10-99 employees), Large(>=100 employees)

Net job creation is largely driven by large firms-5

05

1015

-50

510

15-5

05

1015

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1 2 3 4

5 6-9 10-19 20-49

50-99 100-199 200-999 >=1000

Net

job

crea

tion

(in '0

00)

Characteristics of PCFs in Lebanon

Note: Rankings are based on average HHI values at the sector level between 2005 and 2010.

Sector Politically connected firms, PCFs Non politically connected firms, non-PCFs # of

firms# workers

per firmOutput/ worker

Wage/ worker

Age Capital # of firms

# workersper firm

Output/ worker

Wage/ worker

Age Capital

Real estate development 103 247 155 15 10 352 51 48 181 12 13 320Private-contractors of public works 54 79 53 15 11 81 18 55 73 9 15 76Hotels 34 80 100 14 8 298 22 52 82 9 9 210Commercial banks 31 793 312 40 28 721 28 421 380 24 26 590Private schools 28 619 39 14 18 50 118 111 42 10 23 45Security companies 23 711 16 13 6 96 5 86 19 9 9 73Building cleaning services 22 145 22 10 8 11 12 62 33 9 11 14Waterfront resorts 21 229 17 10 8 2300 17 48 27 8 10 1610Business and management consulting 17 72 23 12 8 25 23 51 28 9 11 17Shipping lines 17 53 93 12 11 30 4 65 69 9 8 26Financial intermediaries 15 39 162 16 11 161 10 56 171 12 13 138Quarries 14 74 57 10 10 24 42 46 65 8 15 31Telecommunications companies 14 65 68 11 12 18 16 48 74 9 14 13Insurance companies 13 130 43 28 11 42 19 80 51 15 16 34Garbage collection companies 11 315 21 10 9 380 8 91 28 9 10 140Print houses 9 47 141 15 10 100 39 82 73 8 10 73Domestic transportation companies 9 144 18 11 10 95 43 45 28 8 16 32Hospitals 8 321 28 36 19 250 100 123 39 23 25 161Mineral water production 7 167 47 12 10 370 8 63 61 8 12 224Private universities 7 619 56 32 8 750 21 212 82 20 9 410Sport centers 6 93 59 13 5 150 3 41 79 8 6 112Gas distributors 4 146 347 12 11 1200 3 52 378 9 13 910Soft-drinks production 4 302 155 15 19 240 2 87 173 9 15 210Dairy products manufacturing 4 157 200 9 13 97 8 61 229 6 16 68Electrical equipment manufacturing 3 52 45 9 11 81 2 69 51 7 14 78Importers and producers of pharma 2 180 322 15 12 250 6 59 361 9 9 280Newspaper and magazine production 4 166 62 15 30 95 3 80 84 9 18 84Radio and TV production 11 363 71 18 13 340 5 231 85 9 10 224Advertising companies 2 103 92 19 10 120 3 73 101 10 12 87Total 497 639

The effect of political connections on net job creation at the firm level NJC

PCF 0.191* 0.186* 0.185** 0.180** (0.053) (0.051) (0.048) (0.049)2009 0.049 0.046 0.051 0.058

(0.124) (0.122) (0.124) (0.134)PCF*2009 0.034* 0.038* 0.047** 0.051** (0.067) (0.058) (0.028) (0.027)Size 0.024** 0.020** 0.026** (0.023) (0.011) (0.031)Age 0.012* 0.009* 0.012*

(0.067) (0.063) (0.057)PCF*Size 0.018** 0.023** 0.025**

(0.049) (0.041) (0.036)PCF*Age 0.011* 0.015* 0.016*

(0.073) (0.069) (0.063)PCFs -0.041** -0.044** (0.022) (0.013)PCF*PCFs -0.053** -0.058** (0.044) (0.052)HHI -0.008* (0.061)Entry rate 0.024* (0.091)Employment 0.011 (0.138)Size_S 0.016** (0.033)Age_S 0.019* (0.055)Capital_S 0.021*

(0.067)2-digit Sector fixed effects Yes Yes Yes YesNumber of observations 12130 12130 12130 12130R-squared 0.514 0.593 0.602 0.711

The effect of political connections on wages at the firm level Wage

PCF 0.163** 0.155** 0.151** 0.141** (0.012) (0.016) (0.022) (0.013)2009 0.064 0.082 0.071 0.068

(0.217) (0.144) (0.156) (0.126)PCF*2009 0.034 0.117 0.113 0.079 (0.115) (0.124) (0.126) (0.141)Size 0.015* 0.019* 0.016* (0.062) (0.059) (0.055)Age 0.010* 0.009* 0.010*

(0.053) (0.048) (0.050)PCF*Size 0.028* 0.037* 0.032*

(0.081) (0.061) (0.054)PCF*Age 0.020* 0.028* 0.021*

(0.063) (0.064) (0.051)PCFs 0.017 0.016 (0.523) (0.597)PCF*PCFs -0.020** -0.019* (0.047) (0.052)HHI 0.021 (0.113)Entry rate 0.018 (0.314)Employment 0.018 (0.128)Size_S 0.010* (0.051)Age_S 0.017 (0.163)Capital_S 0.031*


The effect of political connections on output at the firm level Output per firm

PCF 0.249** 0.242** 0.238** 0.217** (0.027) (0.022) (0.019) (0.024)2009 0.036 0.028 0.031 0.039

(0.291) (0.264) (0.286) (0.317)PCF*2009 0.014 0.013 0.017 0.024 (0.115) (0.184) (0.145) (0.135)Size 0.022* 0.017* 0.021* (0.061) (0.055) (0.057)Age 0.019* 0.013 0.019

(0.085) (0.101) (0.144)PCF*Size 0.021* 0.033** 0.017**

(0.054) (0.048) (0.043)PCF*Age 0.011* 0.016* 0.023*

(0.072) (0.062) (0.062)PCFs -0.068* -0.071* (0.055) (0.053)PCF*PCFs -0.024** -0.048** (0.046) (0.037)HHI -0.009* (0.081)Entry rate 0.028 (0.117)Employment 0.014 (0.128)Size_S 0.022* (0.059)Age_S 0.014* (0.087)Capital_S 0.013**


The effect of political connections on output per worker at the firm level Output per worker

PCF -0.251*** -0.332*** -0.228*** -0.223** (0.008) (0.005) (0.000) (0.011)2009 0.023 0.024 0.031 0.029

(0.317) (0.159) (0.198) (0.215)PCF*2009 -0.036* -0.040** -0.051** -0.052** (0.073) (0.031) (0.0281) (0.029)Size 0.009 0.013 0.014 (0.136) (0.129) (0.116)Age 0.011 0.021 0.019

(0.134) (0.134) (0.142)PCF*Size -0.010* -0.019** -0.013*

(0.051) (0.014) (0.054)PCF*Age -0.016* -0.026* -0.018*

(0.073) (0.019) (0.066)PCFs 0.012 0.016 (0.175) (0.148)PCF*PCFs 0.010** 0.013* (0.024) (0.052)HHI -0.028* (0.054)Entry rate 0.051* (0.092)Employment 0.010 (0.141)Size_S 0.021 (0.132)Age_S 0.016 (0.108)Capital_S 0.053


The effect of political connections on net job creation at the sector level

NJCPCFs -0.081*** -0.076*** -0.068***

(0.000) (0.000) (0.004)2009 -0.090* -0.091* -0.078* (0.056) (0.061) (0.052)PCFs*2009 -0.041** -0.039** -0.026** (0.023) (0.034) (0.017)Size_P -0.043*** -0.024**

(0.009) (0.032)Age_P -0.038** -0.019*

(0.046) (0.072)Size_N 0.028*** 0.019**

(0.002) (0.021)Age_N 0.021** 0.014**

(0.011) (0.033)HHI -0.011 (0.138)Entry rate 0.0183 (0.265)Capital 0.014*

(0.066)

2-digit Sector fixed effects Yes Yes Yes

Number of observations 910 910 910R-squared 0.531 0.604 0.611

The effect of political connections on wages at the sector level WagePCFs 0.058** 0.055** 0.046**

(0.017) (0.019) (0.013)2009 0.126 0.129 0.122 (0.208) (0.135) (0.301)PCFs*2009 0.029* 0.022* 0.011** (0.062) (0.051) (0.043)Size_P 0.021* 0.016**

(0.072) (0.027)Age_P 0.028 0.019

(0.125) (0.215)Size_N 0.023 0.016

(0.178) (0.140)Age_N 0.007 0.013

(0.413) (0.122)HHI 0.027 (0.188)Entry rate 0.011 (0.273)

Capital 0.018*

(0.064)



The effect of political connections on output per firm at the sector level Output per firmPCFs -0.041*** -0.038** -0.033**

(0.000) (0.011) (0.010)2009 0.013 0.017 0.041 (0.129) (0.133) (0.281)PCFs*2009 -0.019* -0.020* -0.017** (0.052) (0.075) (0.036)Size_P -0.026** -0.032***

(0.015) (0.008)Age_P -0.045** -0.029**

(0.026) (0.015)Size_N 0.041** 0.033*

(0.039) (0.061)Age_N 0.022* 0.024*

(0.081) (0.053)HHI -0.038 (0.168)Entry rate 0.019 (0.117)

Capital 0.012**

(0.024)



The effect of political connections on at the sector level Output per workerPCFs -0.048** -0.042** -0.036***

(0.013) (0.022) (0.005)2009 0.068 0.060 0.044 (0.155) (0.125) (0.253)PCFs*2009 -0.017** -0.012** -0.016* (0.042) (0.027) (0.045)Size_P -0.039** -0.036**

(0.031) (0.011)Age_P -0.028** -0.017*

(0.010) (0.053)Size_N 0.019* 0.024**

(0.061) (0.018)Age_N 0.025** 0.014**

(0.042) (0.037)HHI -0.024* (0.056)Entry rate 0.022** (0.028)

Capital 0.078

(0.141)



In a nutshell• We find:

• Large firms account for the bulk of net job creation in Lebanon.• PCFs are larger and create more jobs, but are also less productive and pay

higher wages, than non-PCFs in their sectors. • For every additional PCF in a sector, 6.8 % less jobs are created each year on

average in that sector

• Policy recommendations:• Yes, competition could lead to more growth and job creation• But, competition may not support the current oligarchic political equilibrium,

would possibly lead to political chaos

do political connections reduce job creation? evidence from lebanon

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