do we grow another bushel or save a buck? a bushel or save … · cs 1c 2c 3c 4c 5c cc ct/nt grain...

Lauer © 1994‐2015 http://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu

Do We Grow Another Bushel or Save a Buck?

Joe LauerUniversity of Wisconsin – Madison

Corn/Soy EXPOKalahari Resort, Wisconsin Dells

January 29‐30, 2015


Top 10 most common yield limiting factors …

• And NO, it isn’t about inputs.• The three most important management decisions are:

Hybrid Selection,

Hybrid Selection,

Hybrid Selection.

• The main management objective is to reduce stress on the corn plants during the growing season …

3


• Know your costs• Concentrate on the Basics• Timing is everything

• Question every input (Why?)

• ScoutingUAVs

4

“Back to the Future”“Frugal Innovation”


How much does it cost to produce corn in WI?

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

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$140

$160

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Cost ($ ha-1)Cost ($/A)

SeedFertilizerChemicalsHarvestingEquipmentLand

Data derived from PEPS cash corn divisionError bars represent + standard error of the mean

5Lauer, PEPS 1987‐2011


Categorical variables

• Hybrid selection Seed treatment

• Rotation

• Tillage

• Weed control

• Harvest timing

• Land

• Marketing

• Equipment

6

Crop Production DecisionsWeather, Timing and Economics Drive Decisions

Continuous variables

• Plant density

• Planting date

• Soil fertility N Resiliency (ability to drawdown) P

K

Lime

Micronutrients

• Irrigation

• Scouting

Other variables

• Row spacing

• Insects

• Diseases

• Nematodes

• Drainage

• Use alternatives

• Soil amendments

• Precision farming Data management

• Storage

• Cropping system Cover crops

Resistance management


7

Determining Maximum Yield v. Economic Optimum Yield

Cost or R

eturn ($/A)

Yield (bu/A)

Input (Effort)

Cost

ba

c

c = Equilibrium yield (EQ) where farmers make no profit (potential risk)

Yield

a = Maximum yield (MY)b = Economic optimum yield (EO):

the greatest difference between cost and yield (or return)

d

Nitrogen

Tillage

Fungicide

d = Yield (Y0)with no input


#1 Weather

• Crops in the Midwest are challenged by:Wet springs result in lack of root surface area Drainage is critical

Dry and hot conditions during pollination, kernel set, and grain filling

• Pray for (Ideally) …Spring dry enough for early planting, but wet enough to activate herbicides and promote good stands with uniform emergence

Summer with timely rain (1‐inch per week), lots of sunshine, and temperatures in mid‐80's (day) and low 60's (night)

Fall with sunny, dry weather to speed dry‐down & allow harvest of “22% moisture corn” by November 1

• Accept the fact that mother nature has the upper hand!


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Corn Yield at 0 lb N/A for Various Rotations

0

50

100

150

200

250

Yie

ld (

bush

els

per

acre

)

CC

CS

CSCOA

Lauer, 2014 (Lancaster)


• Principles for SelectionUse independent yield trial data and multi‐location averages

Evaluate consistency of performanceGrain Silage

Yield Yield

Moisture Milk per Ton

Lodging Milk per Acre

Pay attention to seed costs. http://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu/Season/DSS.aspx

Every hybrid must stand on its own for performance; it must pull its own weight.

Buy the traits you need

• “Traits do not add to yield … Traits protect yield.”

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#2 Selecting Corn Hybrids in the Transgenic EraIncreasingly Hybrid Selection Dictates Management


Grain yield difference between highest and lowest corn hybrid in each UW trial since 1973

0

20

40

60

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100

120

140

160

180

200

Gra

in y

ield

diff

eren

ce (b

u/A

)

Number of trials= 939Average yield = 165 bu/AAverage difference = 70 bu/A

Lauer, UW Hybrid Trials 1973‐2014

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Relative performance of conventional corn hybrids Grain yield difference (bu/A) = hybrid average – trial average

5120 5992 5746 5407 4928 4292 4162 3638 2825 1461 1128 946 418 239 73 41 79 189 300 241 409

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014‐30

‐20

‐10

0

10

20All hybridsTop 20%

Grain yield (bu/A)

TrialAverage

Transgenic hybrids first introduced (1996)

Tissue cultured hybrids first introduced (1992)

Number of Plots:

Last major fall count of European corn borer (2002)

Lauer, unpublished HT data


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#2 Seed Treatments

• Take home message … The number of days from planting to emergence is a key factor determining the amount of seedling disease infecting the crop.

• Growers must do ALL of the right things to minimize early season STRESS

• It is hard to make money raising “runts”

• Rain is a growers best friend or worst enemy Rainfall ‐ soon after planting that results in

saturated or nearly saturated soils ‐ is a bigger factor on yield than is date of planting or tillage type

Grower’s today plant large numbers of acres of corn each day‐increasing the at risk acres when a major weather front comes through


#3 Crop Rotation

• “Easiest yield you can get.”

• “The gift that keeps on giving.”

• Corn yield increases 10‐19% when rotated with soybean.

• The rotation effect lasts at most two years. Depends upon the length of the break 2 or more break years Yield of 2nd year corn >

continuous corn.

1 year break Yield of 2nd year corn = continuous corn.

Yield of 3rd year corn is similar to continuous corn.

• The rotation effect is even more dramatic in stressful years.


The rotation effect lasts two years increasing corn grain yield 15 to 17% for CS/1C and 6% for 2C …

212 214

194184 185 185 184

199

192

15 17 6 0 1 1 0 40

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

40

80

120

160

200

CS 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C CC CT/NT

Grain yield (Mg ha‐1)Grain yield (bu/A)

Cropping Sequence C= Corn, S= Soybean, 1C= First year corn, 2C= Second year corn … CC= Continuous corn

Corn Yield Response Following Five Years of Soybean

Lauer, 1994‐2013 (Arlington, Control treatments)

15

A A B C C C C *

%=


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#4 Planting date

• Priceless! “Sets up the season” “Double‐whammy”: late = low yield AND higher moisture

• Focus on seedbed conditions and calendar date rather than soil temperature.

• Follow local extension recommendations Crop insurance requirements

• Disadvantages of early planting Seedling diseases Crusting Late spring frost European corn borer


The planting date producing maximum grain yield is April 28 Grain yield decreases 0.9 bu/A per day on May 10 and accelerates to 2.6 bu/A per day on June 1.

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4

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16

0

50

100

150

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250

86 100 114 128 142 156 170

April 3 April 17 May 1 May 15 May 29 June 12 June 26

Grain yield (Mg ha-1)Grain yield (bu/A)

Maximum yield

95% of Maximum yield

Accelerating rate of yield loss

2003-2012 Grain Yield (bu/A)GY= - 0.059X2 + 13.9X - 594R2 = 0.78

Lauer, 2003‐2012, N= 208(Full‐season hybrid at Arlington, WI) 17

2003-2012 Grain Yield Risk (bu/A)GY= - 0.0074X2 + 1.60X - 101R2 = 0.18


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Corn grain yield response to planting date

Year

Date of: Maximum 95% of

yield max yieldRate of yield (bu/A) loss on:May 10 May 20 June 1

MaximumyieldBu/A R2

2012 May 1 May 16 0.5 1.3 2.1 232 0.71

2011 April 30 May 19 0.4 0.9 1.4 232 0.80

2010 April 29 May 12 1.2 2.3 3.7 267 0.94

2009 April 26 May 12 0.9 1.5 2.2 242 0.76

2008 May 2 May 15 0.7 1.6 2.7 231 0.95

2007 May 3 May 14 0.9 2.1 3.7 225 0.91

2006 April 29 May 11 1.2 2.3 3.6 238 0.86

2005 April 10 April 29 0.5 0.5 0.5 223 0.87

2004 April 25 May 7 1.5 2.5 3.7 230 0.95

2003 April 29 May 15 0.7 1.2 1.9 223 0.78

Average April 28 May 12 0.9 1.6 2.6 234 0.78

Lauer, 2003‐2012Full‐season hybrid at Arlington, WI


#5 Soil Fertility

• It’s not the place to cut costs.• Follow extension recommendations

• Soil test and only apply needed nutrients:Use cheapest form of fertilizer per unit of N, P, or K and apply efficiently

Use manure and legume credits to reduce purchased fertilizer costs

Don’t cut back on overall N supplied unless over applying

Don’t use micronutrients unless soil test recommends


Laboski, 2012

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CornP2O5(lbs)

K2O(lbs)

Per Yield UnitGrain, per bushel 0.38 0.29Silage, per ton (65% moisture) 3.6 8.3

Per AreaGrain, 175 bushels per acre 67 51Silage, 24 tons per acre (65% moisture) 86 199

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Nutrients Removed by Corn at Harvest

derived from UW NPM Fast Facts


#6 Plant Distribution – Plant density and Row spacing

• Plant density Has the most potential to move a farmer from current yield levels

Might be the place to start when moving off the yield plateau.

Plant densities for maximum yield are increasing as newer hybrids are commercialized.

• Row spacingNarrower is betterDecision has low impact on yield

• Seeding depth1.5 ‐ 2 inches


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Theoretical Grain Yield Using Components(Assume 90,000 kernels per bushel, 56 lb/bu, kernel mass= 282 mg)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Grain yield (b

u/A)

15000 28 1425000 17 830000 14 735000 12 645000 9 5

Kernels per ear 200 400 600 800 1000

Grain (lb) per ear 0.11 0.22 0.33 0.44 0.55

Harvest Row spacingPlant density 15‐in 30‐in(Number/A) Plant spacing

Current record = 455 bu/A (2013)


Relationship between corn plant density and grain yield, economic optimum, silage yield, Milk/Ton, and Milk/Acre

80

85

90

95

100

18 24 30 36 42 48

Relativ

e measure (%

)

Harvested plant density (plants/A x 1000)

Grain yield (R2=0.79)Economic optimum (R2= 0.94)Forage yield (R2=0.69)Milk per ton(R2=0.77)Milk per acre (R2=0.68)

24Lauer, 2005‐2014

PDTs >= 4 and PD >= 40K


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#7 Pest Control

• Weeds > Insects > Diseases

• Emerging issuesDevelopment of CRW resistance to BtWeed resistance to glyphosateCorn nematodes

EIL Figure credit: Ed Zaborski, University of Illinois


#7 Timely Weed Control

• Early season weed competition costs us yield in high yield environments.

• Yield cost of delaying weed controlCritical periods of competitionTimingWeed density


Yield Cost of Delaying Weed Control

Knezevic et al. (2003)

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#7 Insect Management

• Its all about scouting and timing!

• Insects are adapting

Northern

Southern

Western

Corn rootworm(Diabrotica sp.)

Photos: Rice


#7 Disease Management

• “What is good for the crop is good for the pest.”

• Disease management goal is to improve corn canopy leading to yield increase and disease decrease.

• Genetic resistance is the cheapest control

• Scout for these in particular… Anthracnose Northern Corn Leaf Blight Diplodia Fusarium/Gibberella

• Foliar applied fungicides ? Headline Quadris


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Corn and Fungicide in WisconsinYear Previous Crop Tillage No Fungicide

With Headline Fungicide

Fungicide Increase with Headline LSD(0.10)

‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ bushels per acre ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐2012 Corn No‐till 168 163 ‐5 NS

Soybean No‐till 167 171 +4 NSWheat No‐till 192 193 +1 NS

2011 Corn No‐till 196 190 ‐6 NSSoybean No‐till 177 177 0 NSWheat No‐till 194 183 ‐11 NS

2010 Corn No‐till 243 233 ‐10 NSSoybean No‐till 246 254 +8 NSWheat No‐till 257 258 +1 NS

2009 Corn No‐till 176 166 ‐10 NSSoybean No‐till 199 204 +5 NSWheat No‐till 182 193 +11 NS

2008 Corn No‐till 174 168 ‐6 NSSoybean No‐till 200 198 ‐2 NSWheat No‐till 192 205 +13 NS

2007 Corn No‐till 216 222 +6 11Soybean No‐till 203 230 +27 NSWheat No‐till 205 210 +5 NSSoybean No‐till 206 208 +2 NS

2006 Soybean Chisel 226 229 +3 NSCorn Chisel 214 217 +3 NSCorn Chisel 227 227 0 NS

2005 Corn Chisel 181 186 +5 NSSoybean Chisel 199 211 +12 NSSoybean Chisel 212 213 +1 NS

2004 Soybean Chisel 200 211 +11 9

Lauer, 2012 (Arlington, Headline at VT)


31

#8 Tillage

• Tillage used to be about … Controlling Weeds

Seedbed Preparation

• “Now, it is all about stand establishment.” Excellent herbicides

Planter technology developments

• Not necessary, except in continuous corn.

• Tillage responses more often measured in the northern corn belt (~5‐7% increase). Less difference observed between tillage systems

when using Round‐up Ready crops.

“Tillage systems take time to equilibrate.”

• Do you have reason to suspect compaction? How was it caused?

Sub‐soil?

Photo by Dick Wolkowski

Photo by Mike Rankin


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Tillage does not affect corn yield in CS/1C, but improves yield in 2C to 5C and CC.

211 212199

191 193 196 190

213 216

189177 178 175 178

‐1 ‐2 5 8 8 12 70

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4

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8

10

12

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0

40

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CS 1C 2C 3C 4C 5C CC

Grain yield (Mg ha‐1)Grain yield (bu/A)

Cropping Sequence C= Corn, S= Soybean, 1C= First year corn, 2C= Second year corn … CC= Continuous corn

Corn Yield Response Following Five Years of Soybean

CT NT

Lauer, 1994‐2013 (Arlington, Control treatments)

NS NS * * * * *%=


• Trade‐off between field losses and drying costRecommended to harvest between 20 and 25% moisture

• For safe storage, drying is usually required (< 15%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

199219931994200020012009

Grain moisture (%)

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#9 Harvest and Store Carefully


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Precision farming – “Success is proving elusive”Technology is available, but the agronomy is lacking.


35

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles


• Weather / Environment

• Hybrid Top to bottom ranking = 0 to 30% change (Grain= 70 bu/A, Silage= 12,100 lb Milk/A)

Presence or absence of genetic traits = 0 to 100% change

• Rotation Continuous v. Rotation = 0 to 30% change Greater consequence in ‘stress’ environments

• Date of PlantingMay 1 to June 1 = 0 to 30% change Also need to add moisture penalty

• Soil Fertility 160 v. 0 lb N/A = 20 to 50% change

• Plant Density 32,000 to 15,000 plants/A = 0 to 22% change

• Pest Control TimelinessWeeds > Insects > Diseases Good v. Bad = 0 to 100% change

• Tillage Chisel v. No‐till = ‐5 to 10% change No‐till = energy savings Cultivation: Yes v. No = 0 to 10% change

• Harvest Timing Oct. 15 to Dec. 1 = 0 to 20% change

• Row Spacing 30‐inches to 15‐inches = 0 to 5% change

Relative Impact of Corn Management Decisions on Grain Yield in Wisconsin

36


Website: http://corn.agronomy.wisc.eduTo subscribe (unsubscribe) to season updates

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Thanks for your attention!Questions?

37

do we grow another bushel or save a buck? a bushel or save … · cs 1c 2c 3c 4c 5c cc ct/nt grain...

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