documenting the future
DESCRIPTION
The 3pm Presentation on Documenting the Future.TRANSCRIPT
Documenting the Future Present
Dr Stephen Dann
Background
• 1993: Wired 1.3 – “This web thing. It’s going to be big”
• 1994: “Contemporary Issues in marketing” – “It’ll never catch on” complain students
Midground
• 1998– Strategic Internet Marketing 1.0
• 2001– Strategic Internet Marketing 2.0
Internet Book are SRS Business
Book lag is not measured in milliseconds
Contract July 2006
Manuscript: July 2009
On shelves for a 2011 class.
How to deal with it all?
Future-proofing is akin to fool-proofing
3 Future Proofing Lessons
• Half-life not Shelf life.
• Soft Technology Predictions– future development of nascent technologies– possible resolution of contentious issues
• intellectual property• privacy• DRM issues
• Assume the worst– 10% survival rate
Tricks
Write the Future
1. Follow the people
2. The old internet is not the new internet
3. Be radicalDoing what fits best, rather than what has always been done, is the radical approach advocated by the Internet
Randall, D. 1997, ‘Consumer strategies for the Internet: Four scenarios’, Long Range Planning, vol. 30, no. 2, pp. 157–68.
Right the Future
4. Be robustGet knocked down, get back up again
• Drink a whiskey drink, • Drink a cider drink, • Drink an energy drink, • Drink another energy drink
5. Focus on the marketsif you’ve got what they want,
they’ll find you.
Where’s the future at?
1. Follow the peopleInnovators are through
Early adopters are passing
Here comes the early majority
2. The old internet is not the new internet
It’s newer, slower, less stable and we couldn’t love it more if we tried.
3. Be radical
Produce something someone wants at a price you both can afford to maintain
4. Be robustLess Market Stability
More Financial uptime
5. Focus on the markets
Solve problems
Create new and wonderful problems.
Above all else…Have fun
Enjoy the Internet as a wildly chaotic landscape while it lasts before it settles down, grows up and becomes as staid and sober a medium as television or radio
