dodge 2015 construction outlook - sea · u.s. construction market outlook – percent change,...
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2015 Dodge Construction Outlook
Cliff BrewisVice President OperationsDodge Data & Analytics
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U.S. Macroeconomic OutlookAfter a weak start to 2014, the pace of economic growth has picked up.
GDP Pattern:History Forecast2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
+2.5% +1.6% +2.3% +2.2% +2.2% +3.3%
Shape of Recovery:• Subdued –
Periods of moderate expansion havebeen followed by deceleration.
• Reliance on private sector diminished by improving locapublic financials.
• Limited Federal Contribution
• Cost of money will stay low
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U.S. Macroeconomic OutlookEmployment growth has shown steady growth in the February-September period.
• Jobs lost from Feb.’08 to Feb. ’10: 8.7 Million.
• Job creation so far in 2010-2014: 9.1 Million. Unemployment rate at 5.9%
• Job growth in Jan.’13-Nov.’13: 204,000 /mo.in Dec.’13-Jan.’14: 114,000 /mo.
in Feb.‘14.-Sept.’14: 237,000 /mo.
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U.S. Construction Market Outlook –The Dodge Momentum Index offers insight on what’s ahead.
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U.S. Construction Market Outlook –Percent Change, 2010-2015, for Total Construction Starts and Major Sectors.
.History Forecast
2014Value
40% ofTotal Const.
36% ofTotal Const.
24% ofTotal Const.
Residential- Single Family- Multifamily
Nonresidential- Offices- Hotels- Warehouses- Stores- Education- Healthcare- Other Institutional- Manufacturing
Nonbuilding- Highways & Bridges- Environmental Public Works- Other Public Works- Electric Utilities
Residential- Single Family- Multifamily
Nonresidential- Offices- Hotels- Warehouses- Stores- Education- Healthcare- Other Institutional- Manufacturing
Nonbuilding- Highways & Bridges- Environmental Public Works- Other Public Works- Electric Utilities
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U.S. Residential – Single Family HousingIn 2014, single family housing stalled. Sales heading up, but hesitantly. Home prices still increasing.
Issues:1. Underwater Homeowners2. New Home Prices3. Financials of First Time Home Buyers
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Washington– Single Family HousingGrowth diminishing, but stronger than most markets.
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Washington– Multifamily HousingAfter three comparable years, another burst in 2015.
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U.S. Residential – Multifamily HousingTop 10 Metros - 9 months year-to-date, 2014 vs. 2013. Based on Dollars.
Billions of Dollars
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Washington– Office BuildingsThird strong year.
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U.S. Commercial – Office BuildingsTop 10 Metros - 9 months year-to-date, 2014 vs. 2013. Based on Dollars
Billions of Dollars
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Washington– HotelsThree comparable years.
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Washington– WarehousesA more erratic structure type. Influence of port.
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Washington– RetailHoliday Season and price of oil will dictate 2015.
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Washington– Educational BuildingsThe decline for the educational building category has ended, now turning up.
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U.S. Institutional – Educational BuildingsK-12 school construction is larger and more volatile than colleges and universities.
In 2014, sq. ft. for K-12 school construction was3.5 times the size of Colleges/Universities/
Community Colleges.
In 2014, dollars for K-12 school construction were2.3 times the size of Colleges/Universities/
Community Colleges.
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Washington– HealthcareContinues inconsistent behavior.
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U.S. Institutional – Healthcare BuildingsTop 10 States - 9 months year-to-date, 2014 vs. 2013. Based on Dollars.
Billions of Dollars
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Washington– Public BuildingsPublic buildings experienced lengthy decline, now stabilizing.
Based on Sq. Ft. 2013 2014 Detention Facilities -36% -24
Armories/Military -62% -1
Courthouses -20% +6
Police & Fire Stations -6% -3
Post Offices negligible -2
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Washington– Highways and BridgesHighways and Bridges pulling back after robust 2013. Successor bill needed for MAP-21.
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U.S. Construction Market OutlookStructure Type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015EDUCATION $1,403,886 $1,189,458 $1,137,984 $1,123,182 $1,361,040 $815,749 $910,489 $821,283 $977,877
-15.3% -4.3% -1.3% 21.2% -40.1% 11.6% -9.8% 19.1%GOVT $187,040 $372,090 $335,251 $272,528 $202,522 $112,510 $117,595 $62,542 $93,430
98.9% -9.9% -18.7% -25.7% -44.4% 4.5% -46.8% 49.4%HEALTH $642,252 $943,013 $398,509 $450,625 $561,757 $384,644 $213,653 $473,608 $385,453
46.8% -57.7% 13.1% 24.7% -31.5% -44.5% 121.7% -18.6%HIGHWAY $876,176 $860,267 $1,073,669 $891,587 $2,164,228 $573,563 $666,006 $766,989 $941,853
-1.8% 24.8% -17.0% 142.7% -73.5% 16.1% 15.2% 22.8%HOTEL $206,648 $188,391 $71,203 $32,882 $49,575 $34,647 $233,954 $221,848 $222,905
-8.8% -62.2% -53.8% 50.8% -30.1% 575.3% -5.2% 0.5%MFG $135,919 $143,919 $45,899 $44,348 $468,468 $69,941 $59,475 $122,545 $178,352
5.9% -68.1% -3.4% 956.3% -85.1% -15.0% 106.0% 45.5%MULTI RES $1,821,517 $891,692 $392,024 $439,860 $959,021 $1,330,958 $1,370,367 $1,409,542 $1,675,898
-51.0% -56.0% 12.2% 118.0% 38.8% 3.0% 2.9% 18.9%OFFICE $1,101,305 $1,006,411 $852,063 $439,002 $539,487 $284,605 $773,630 $915,720 $995,415
-8.6% -15.3% -48.5% 22.9% -47.2% 171.8% 18.4% 8.7%RETAIL $714,918 $439,755 $404,812 $283,782 $358,151 $281,069 $325,764 $342,814 $410,681
-38.5% -7.9% -29.9% 26.2% -21.5% 15.9% 5.2% 19.8%SINGLE FAM $6,487,973 $3,695,045 $2,803,837 $3,369,973 $3,302,401 $4,409,830 $5,249,557 $6,204,485 $7,093,650
-43.0% -24.1% 20.2% -2.0% 33.5% 19.0% 18.2% 14.3%WAREHOUSE $226,816 $186,483 $160,886 $109,763 $107,694 $98,598 $263,485 $144,459 $193,781
-17.8% -13.7% -31.8% -1.9% -8.4% 167.2% -45.2% 34.1%WATER SUPPLY $299,990 $274,677 $226,284 $152,107 $245,877 $351,425 $238,973 $177,943 $255,756
-8.4% -17.6% -32.8% 61.6% 42.9% -32.0% -25.5% 43.7%
TOTAL $19,067,683 $13,723,558 $10,714,872 $11,302,330 $14,402,533 $11,163,161 $13,896,660 $14,753,765 $16,877,024-28.0% -21.9% 5.5% 27.4% -22.5% 24.5% 6.2% 14.4%
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Points of Perspective
CyclicalTroughs1975198219912011