dods polling - case study
TRANSCRIPT
Methodology and demographics
Between 3rd and 28th July 2014, Dods interviewed 100 Members of Parliament online on their attitudes towards the EU and the Scottish independence referendum. These numbers reflect total interviews actually conducted. In the rest of the presentation the figures used are weighted by party to reflect the political composition of the House of Commons.
Total 100 Region (totals)
East Midlands 7Gender (%) Eastern 5Male 81 London 12Female 19 North East 9
North West 12Party (totals) Northern Ireland 3Conservative 39 Scotland 11Labour 45 South East 9Liberal Democrat 10 South West 9Other 6 Wales 4
West Midlands 9
Yorkshire & Humberside 10
NOTE: Figures in the remainder of this presentation
are in percentages unless otherwise
stated
Q1: Jean-Claude Juncker’s impact on the EU referendum in the UK
Question one asked: Does the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission make a “no” vote in any forthcoming UK referendum on EU membership more likely?→ Yes→ No→ Don’t know→ Prefer not to say
The largest number of respondents, in total, agreed that Juncker’s appointment as president of the European Commission would impact the UK referendum vote (47%). Opinion was especially decisive among Conservatives (77%), this is not surprising since they are a significantly Eurosceptic party.
Labour correspondents on the other hand, disagreed, with the majority (51%) feeling Juncker’s appointment would have no impact on the referendum “no” vote, similarly not surprising given Labour’s historic support for the European Union.
Q1: Jean-Claude Juncker’s impact on the EU referendum in the UK
Does the appointment of Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission make a “no” vote in any forthcoming UK referendum on EU membership more likely?(N=100, weighted)
Total Conservative Labour
47
77
2032
13
51
1910
243
04
Yes
No
Don't know
Prefer not to say
Q2: EU Referendum
Question two asked: In a yes / no referendum on UK membership of the EU, which way would you vote?→ Vote to leave the EU→ Vote to remain the EU→ Don’t know→ Prefer not to say
In total, a narrow majority of respondents favored remaining in the EU (53%), with the majority of this support stemming from Labour (91%) and Liberal Democrat (100%) respondents whilst the majority of conservatives would vote to leave (53%).
Similarly to the last question, these results are not surprising as Conservatives are known to be typically more Eurosceptic whereas Labour and Liberal democrat MPs generally support the European Union. What is worth noting is the way in which the Conservative MPs have split, given that the Government is more pro-EU, we would expect to see more support, though not a majority, to remain in the EU from Conservative respondents.With only 10% choosing to remain in the EU, 18% not knowing and 15% preferring not to say, this leaves roughly a third of Conservative respondents opinions undecided or not known.
Q2: EU Referendum
In a yes / no referendum on UK membership of the EU, which way would you vote?(N=100, weighted)
Total Conservative Labour
29
56
2
53
10
91
918
29 15 4
Vote to leave the EU
Vote to remain in the EU
Don't know
Prefer not to say
Q3: Scottish Independence Referendum
Question three asked: Which of the following scenarios is, in your opinion, the most likely outcome of September’s referendum in Scottish Independence?→ A yes vote – to leave the UK→ A no vote – to remain in the UK→ Don’t know→ Prefer not to say
Unsurprisingly, the overwhelming majority of respondents opinion was that the result will be a no vote, to remain in the UK, given that the majority of respondents were not Scottish they would naturally favor remaining in the Union. With Conservatives unanimous in their opinion (100%) and Labour not far behind (91%) whilst neither party thought that a yes vote would occur.
This suggests that support for Scotland to remain part of the United Kingdom is almost unanimous among MP’s across the UK, that being said, only 11 of the 100 MPs polled were Scottish, therefore it could be argued this survey is not a true reflection of the reality of the situation.
Q3: Scottish Independence Referendum
Which of the following scenarios is, in your opinion, the most likely outcome of September’s referendum in Scottish Independence? (N=100, weighted)
Total Conservative Labour
30 0
94 10091
30 71 0 2
A yes vote - to leave the UK
A no vote - to remain in the UK
Don't know
Prefer not to say
Coverage on Scottish Referendum Polling
In media: → The Telegraph→ Holyrood Magazine→ The Daily Mail→ The Daily Express→ PoliticsHome→ SNP→ Sputnik news→ ZeeNews India
On Twitter:→ Holyrood Magazine→ Mandy Rhodes→ Yes Scotland→ Paul Waugh→ SNP
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