does electric grid 2.0 mean energy democracy?
TRANSCRIPT
D O E S E L E C T R I C G R I D 2 . 0 M E A N E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y ?
A S H O C K I N G T R A N S F O R M A T I O N
John Farrell March 9, 2016
Presentation at NESEA 2016
A Q U E S T I O N
S M A R T P H O N E I M A G E Did you get one of these…
From a landline company like
that?
A S I M I L A R M O N O P O LY
P R O B L E M
PercapitaelectricityuseAverageannualretailelectricitypricesInterstatetransmissionspendingWindandsolarpowercapacity
c1900 199019801970 2000 2010
Sources:WorldBank,EIA,USCensus,SEIA,LBNL
“GOLDEN AGE” SHOCK & COMPETITION STABILITY DEREGULATION
• PURPAallowsnon-utilitygeneration
• Pricesrise• Salesslow• Competitionstarts
• Pricesfall• Demandrises
• Independentproducersrise,asdointerstatetransactions
• Fedsopenwholesalemarket
• Statesadoptrenewablestandardsandnetmetering
• Somestatesintroducecompetitionforgenerationandretailsales
• Wind+Solargoexponential
• Demandflattens
TRANSITION
• Statesoffer“decoupling”
• Statesadoptenergyefficiencystandards
S T E A D Y F O R D E C A D E S
• Regulatedmonopolies• Profitsfromsales• Profitsfromnew
powerplants• “biggerisbetter”
PercapitaelectricityuseAverageannualretailelectricitypricesInterstatetransmissionspendingWindandsolarpowercapacity
1990 2000 2010
Sources:WorldBank,EIA,USCensus,SEIA,LBNL
C O S T & C O M P E T I T I O N STABILITY DEREGULATION
• Pricesfall• Demandrises
• Independentproducersrise,asdointerstatetransactions
• Fedsopenwholesalemarket
• Statesadoptrenewablestandardsandnetmetering
• Somestatesintroducecompetitionforgenerationandretailsales
• Wind+Solargoexponential
• Demandflattens
TRANSITION
• Statesoffer“decoupling”
• Statesadoptenergyefficiencystandards
“GOLDEN AGE”
S H O C K # 1
c1900 1970 1980
• Pricesrise• Salesslow• Competitionstarts
PercapitaelectricityuseAverageannualretailelectricitypricesInterstatetransmissionspendingWindandsolarpowercapacity
S H O C K # 2
2010
Sources:WorldBank,EIA,USCensus,SEIA,LBNL
“GOLDEN AGE” STABILITY D E R E G U L AT I O N & R E N E WA B L E S
• Wind+Solargoexponential
• Demandflattens
• Statesoffer“decoupling”
• Statesadoptenergyefficiencystandards
C O S T & C O M P E T I T I O N
c1900 1970 1980 1990 2000
• Independentproducersrise,asdointerstatetransactions
• Statesadoptrenewablestandardsandnetmetering
• Somestatesintroducecompetitionforgenerationandretailsales
PercapitaelectricityuseAverageannualretailelectricitypricesInterstatetransmissionspendingWindandsolarpowercapacity
A T R A N S F O R M AT I V E T I M E
Sources:WorldBank,EIA,USCensus,SEIA,LBNL
“GOLDEN AGE” TRANSFORMATIOND E R E G U L AT I O N & R E N E WA B L E S
C O S T & C O M P E T I T I O N
c1900 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
STABILITY
• Wind+Solargoexponential
• Demandflattens
N O P I E C E O F C A K E
Utilities are like bakers that only try a recipe once a
decade. No iteration means no innovation.
1 I N S TA L L E V E R Y 6 0 S E C O N D S
I N C O N T R A S T
U N P R E C E D E N T E D P O W E R
Software allows many iterations
B AT T E R I E S E V E R Y W H E R E
D I S T R I B U T I O N G R I D I N V E S T M E N T L A G G I N G
American Society of Civil Engineers
“America will see an investment gap in distribution infrastructure of $57 billion by 2020”
I T ’ S A W H O L E N E W W O R L D
Minster POPULATION 2,806
Small town adds storage to solar
P E R C E N T O F H O U S E H O L D S W I T H
S O L A R
15%
53% used on-site
S O L A R A L O N E S O L A R + E V + B AT T E R Y + S M A R T C O N T R O L S
89% used on-site
Inexpensive solar+storage will be cheaper than grid electricity in most places within 20 years, half the life of new power plants
U N E X P E C T E D
H O W D I F F E R E N T W I L L I T B E ?
1 0 0 % R E N E W A B L E E N E R G Y *
• Jacobson state by state studies
Source: Mark Jacobson via David Roberts
* W I T H A F E W C H A N G E S I N D I R E C T I O N
Credit: mark notari via Flickr
• Electrify everything
• transportation, heating/cooling, and industry
1 . E L E C T R I F Y E V E R Y T H I N G
Credit: Ken Bosma via Flickr
2 . R E D U C E U S E
39.3%Compared to business-as-usual
X X XX
X X
3 . W I N D - W AT E R - S O L A R O N LY
20202025
2030
2016
2050
after
for new power plants
Allnewlight-dutyvehicles
2015 203020252020
IN JUST 25 YEARS…
Allnewshipsandports
Allnewtrainsandbuses
Allnewsmall,short-rangeplanes
2035 2040
Heating,drying,andcookingintheresidentialandcommercialsectors
Allnewheavydutytrucks
Allnewlong-haulaircraft
Credit: Mark Jacobson, via David Roberts
Allnewsmallmarinevessels
ELECTRIFICATION TIMELINE TO REACH 100% RENEWABLE BY 2050
A D A P T O R D I E ?
T R A N S F O R M AT I O N
It seems an equal choice between energy democracy and utility monopoly…
T R A N S F O R M AT I O N
But one is a dead end
N E W R U L E S
1. Enable alternatives
N E W R U L E S
2. Set up markets
N E W R U L E S
3. Allow power sharing
www.ilsr.org
D O W N L O A D O U R F U L L R E P O R T
R E A D M O R E
@johnffarrell