does your app really solve a problem?
DESCRIPTION
Does Your App Really Solve a Problem? with Anthony Ilukwe So you have an app idea. Or several of them, for that matter. How do you decide on which one to pursue? A lot of innovators and developers spend time working on ideas, but are we fully considering whether the idea is worth hours of our time? Does it check all the right boxes? Is it enough to establish that it merely “solves a problem”? This presentation challenges the conventional wisdom, and offers a logical model to help decide what app to build (first), to ensure that our limited time and energy are spent on the very best ideas that we have; plus how to design your app to maximize its chance of success. There will be real life examples, case studies, and anecdotes from some of the top minds in the web and mobile space.TRANSCRIPT
Does Your App Really Solve a
Problem?!
@ArtfulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Hello!!I’m @ArtfulGeek!
@ArtfulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Apps in Perspective!• June 29, 2007 – iPhone release.!• July 10, 2008 - App Store launched by
Apple.!• January 22, 2011 – 10 billionth app
download.!• May 2013 – 50 billion apps
downloaded*!* Wired.com: “Someone out there just won a $10,000 iTunes gift card, Apple’s way of saying “Thanks” for downloading its 50 billionth iOS app.”
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Big Sea of Change!
• 147% increase in smartphone owners from 2008.!
• Today, almost a billion people own smartphones.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
The Future…!
• IDC forecasts 1.5 billion smartphones by 2017.!• Expected steady 10% annual
growth rate.!• Estimated 260% growth in
application store revenues.!http://www.fiercemobileit.com/story/global-smartphone-market-growth-estimates-vary-among-research-firms/2013-06-03! @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Problems. Ideas.Apps.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Idea Mockup Prototype !!à Program Product Business!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Idea Mockup Prototype !!à Program Product Business!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
The Old!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
The New!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
“I found spam intolerable ... And it turns out that was all you needed to solve the problem. The algorithm I used was ridiculously simple. Anyone who'd really tried to solve the problem would have found it. It was just that no one had really tried to solve the problem.”
- Paul Graham
h"p://paulgraham.com/ideas.html @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
What Makes an App Successful?
"The equation for success is pretty simple... find a problem to solve (or a solution to improve) that's relevant to a massive amount of people. Then remember that the problem your solving is for these people and make it easy for them to use."
http://www.quora.com/How-did-Mint-acquire-1-0m+-users-without-a-high-viral-coefficient-scalable-SEO-strategy-or-paid-customer-acquisition-channel @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Ideas: The Good!
Credit: Grilled Cheese Social @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Credit: Discovery Health
Ideas: The Good!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Cheetos lip balm!
Credit: BookOfJoe
Ideas: The Bad!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Whole chicken in a can!
Credit: FlickR
Ideas: The Ugly!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• Inadequate market estimation and research.!• Swallowed by competition or
entry by giants.!• Ineffective distribution
model.!• Inability to scale.!
• Missed a stroke of luck…!
Why Do Good App Ideas Fail?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Spoiler Alert: It’s Competitive.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Evaluating Your Ideas.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• What problem does it solve?!• Is there a market? What is its
size?!• Is there sufficient demand?!• Is there a secret weapon
against the competition?!
Is My Idea Worth Pursuing?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• Is there an economy of scale?!• Do you have sufficient time to
market advantage? Will you get eaten by a giant?!• Distribution model and
marketing strategy.!
Is My Idea Worth Pursuing?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
“It suddenly occurred to me that the hottest tech start-ups are solving all the problems of being twenty years old, with cash on hand, because that's who thinks them up.”
- George Packer, The New Yorker, May 2013.
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Value vs Problem!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
!Problem solving is important, but so is opportunity and value.!
Is It Always About SolvingA Problem?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
!Wrong problems and right problems.!
Is It Always About SolvingA Problem?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Wander App!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Is There a Market?!
Credit: MarkeDng Technology Landscape, via ChiefMartec.com @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Simple equation!
Market Size =!Price Point x !Number of Buyers!
What Is The Market Size?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Angry Birds!2 billion downloads x $0.99!!Minecraft!10 million downloads x $6.99!
Market Size Estimation!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Market Size!
Adapted from B. Srinivasan and V. Pande @Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• Fermi estimates (top-down market sizing)!!“How many piano tuners are there in !Chicago?”
!• Sum up empirical revenue
figures for competitors !!(SEC filings)!
Market Size Estimation!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Facebook Advertiser Tools!Real time census for demographical estimates.!
Market Research!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Google Adwords Keyword Planner!Search volumes for keywords.!
Market Research!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Is There Demand?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
“A game-changer in the world of social networking”!!AppAdvice, NYT,!Mashable.!
Foreca.st!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
If the concept is novel, can demand be created and fostered?!
Demand!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Illusions of Demand!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Is There Room For Your Idea?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Is There Room For Your Idea?!
Spork!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Do you have sufficient time to market advantage?!
Spork!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Could It Get !Eaten By !A Giant?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
• How do you get your app in the hands of The Market?!• Can you leverage virality?!• Can your marketing budget
help achieve this?!
Distribution Model.!Marketing Strategy.!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Credit: h"p://www.viralblog.com/research-‐cases/how-‐hotmail-‐became-‐a-‐viral-‐hit-‐once/
• In the 90s, people paid for Internet + one ISP based e-mail address. !
• Enter Hotmail. People could now access their account from any computer in the world.!
• With no extra cost per email address! !
= Thousands of sign-ups every day.!
The Hotmail Model!Virality + Shrewd Marketing!
Hotmail spent only $500,000 to gain 12 million users in 2 years, while its early competitors spent $20 million to attract less than half of that.!!
The Hotmail Model!Virality + Shrewd Marketing!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
The Virality Equation
U(t) = (Np)t/τ
N = Number of people shared with p = probability that people decide to share τ= Time interval between shares
• Np must be > 1!• It’s a lot easier to increase N than p!• Decreasing τresults in non-linear
growth, due to exponential factor.!@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Potential Economy of Scale?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
An Idea Evaluation Model!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
“The way to get good ideas is to get lots of ideas and throw the bad ones away.”
– Linus Pauling
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013
Questions?!
@Ar$ulGeek | FITC SCREENS | Oct 2013