doing research differently for food security outcomes
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Tackling wicked problems – doing research differently
Bruce Campbell, Program Director, CCAFS
1. The global challenges 2. Research approaches
1. Food security challenge
Best performance
Needs improvement
805 million undernourished people in the world today
e.g. Dry bean production 2050
Percentage change
RCP8.5
80 60 40 5 -5 -20 -40 -60 -80
2. Adaptation challenge
Natural Catastrophes Worldwide Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)
Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (storm) Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami ….)
3. Mitigation challenge
19-29% global
GHGs from food
systems
Climate smart agriculture
Productivity
Mitigation Adaptation Resilience Emissions
Climate risk à long term adaptation
Global negotiators Regional economic communities
National policies Local planning Farmers fields
Global Alliance
for Climate-Smart
Alliance (GACSA)
Alternate-‐We*ng-‐and-‐Drying (AWD)
30% water
20-‐50% GHG
Without compromising yield
• Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering
• Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16 15.0
8.7
-42%
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
t CO
2-eq
/ ha
4.9 3.9
-20%
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
0 2 4 6 8
10 12 14 16
-22% -28%
6.0 4.7
6.4 4.6
Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying
Summer-Autumn
Winter-Spring
Sander et al. in press IRRI
AWD Conventional
No blanket recommendations
Not CSA CSA
Many practices/programs/policies can be CSA somewhere
But none are likely CSA everywhere
Rosenstock et al. unpublished
Context
2. Research approaches
2. Climate information services and climate-informed safety nets
4. Policies and institutions for climate-resilient food systems
1. Climate smart technologies, practices,
and portfolios
Regional Programs
Regional and Flagship Leaders: Agents of Change
Major Partners
10 Principles
1. Negotiating complexity à Leverage 2. Three-thirds principle 3. Co-learning 4. Measurable capacity enhancement 5. Joining in 6. Internal learning 7. Active communicators 8. ………
1. Negotiating complexity à Leverage
Priority setting
2. Three-Thirds Principle
Engaging with partners to decide what needs to be done and how ⅓
⅓ ⅓ Doing the actual research
Strengthening capacity of next users to use and communicate the results of the research in order to achieve outcomes
Fullana I, Palmer P, et al 2011
Policy & Institutional
Change
CSA Implimentation
Working with partners to drive implementation
Working with partners to understand what
works for policy Working with
partners to foster institutional change
Working with partners to understand what works
for implementation
3. Co-learning
”Climate-smart villages”
CGIAR
• Improved index insurance products for > 50,000 farmers in India
Senegal: Climate information services
• Male and female farmers • Indigenous & scientific • Probabilistic seasonal forecasts • 3.9 million farmers
4. Measurable capacity enhancement
• Youth and Small Entrepreneur Self-Employment Fund, Ministry of Finance, Government of Nepal
• Target: 10,000 women trained on CC adaptation
5. Joining in
• Start from outcome sought by external stakeholders § E.g. “enhance the resilience of 500 million people in
agriculture by 2030” • Theory of change • Program targets, indicators, annual milestones
2015 2016 2019 2025
4 +525 national and subnational major development
initiatives and public institutions prioritize and inform project implementation of equitable best bet CSA options using CCAFS science and decision support tools
2 +3
15 public-‐private actors at national and subnational
levels are using incentive mechanisms and new business models/ markets that explicitly promote equitable climate smart approaches along the value chain, using CCAFS science
2 +315 major regional, national, and sub-‐national
institutions develop or improve major demand-‐driven, equitable, climate informed services supporting rural communities using CCAFS research outputs
2 +215 mio. US$ increase, relative to 2014, in research-‐
informed demand-‐driven investments in climate services for agriculture and food security decision-‐making, based on CCAFS science and engagement.
Flagship Project 1
: Fla
gship Project 2
: Clim
ate-‐sm
art a
gricu
ltural
practic
es
30 mio. farmers, at
least 12 mio. of
whom are women, with strengthened
adaptive capacity and food security as a
result of programmatic CSA investment.
Clim
ate inform
ation service
s and
climate-‐inform
ed sa
fety nets 30 mio. farmers
(mio.), 12 mio. of
whom are women, with improved
capacity to adapt to climate related risk by accessing research-‐informed climate
services and/or well-‐targeted safety nets.
6. Internal Learning
Results-based management
2025 Flagship Outcomes
2025 Regional Outcomes
2019 Flagship Outcomes
2019 Regional Outcomes
Cluster of Activities
Cluster of Activities
Cluster of Activities
Project
Project
Project
Project
Project
Project
Project
Project
Internal learning (cont)
• Results-based management
• Annual reflection
• Ex-post Impact Assessment
7. Active communicators
Outcomes from Shamba Shape Up 428,566 farmers made changes to
maize or dairy practices US$ 24 million net economic impact in
25 counties
Conclusions
• Scientific credibility • Three major challenges • Changing research models
Thank you
www.ccafs.cgiar.org @cgiarclimate @bcampbell_CGIAR