Donald FournierBuilding Research Council

School of Architecture University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Sustainability, Energy, and the Energy/Water Nexus

WMRC Sustainability Seminar

Overview Background (US and

World Energy situation).

Sustainability and the tech fix.

Can we get there? The Energy Water/

Nexus.

World Energy Use (Quads)

Source: DOE/EIA International Energy Outlook 2007

US Energy Use (Quads)

Source: DOE/EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007

US Electric Generation by Fuel

Source: DOE/EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2006

2006 – 4,065 B kWh

Bill

ion

kWh

Should be 3927 B kWh

(2 years ahead)

Source:

ASPO Sep 2006

Actual Production2003 – 79.62 Mbd2004 – 83.12 Mbd2005 – 84.63 Mbd2006 – 84.60 Mbd2007 – 84.34 Mbd

Petroleum Prices

DOE/EIA, November 2007

Natural Gas Prices

Natural Gas Prices

Source: DOE/EIA 2007Source: DOE/EIA 2007 (thru August)

Coal Prices

Source: DOE/EIA 2007

U.S. Energy Flows 2006

Source: DOE/EIA 200769%

22%

Renewable Energy

US Energy Production Last year:

PV grew 33%

Wind grew 27%

Biofuels grew >23%

Coal grew 2.5%

Natural Gas grew 2.3%

Oil grew 1.0%

Nuclear Electric grew 1.0%

Atmospheric CO2

Carbon Emissions

““Unknowingly, the Unknowingly, the architecture and architecture and building community is building community is responsible for almost responsible for almost half of all U.S. half of all U.S. greenhouse gas greenhouse gas emissions annually. emissions annually. Globally the Globally the percentage is even percentage is even greater.”greater.”

US Energy Information Administration statistics Graphic Published first in Metropolis Magazine, October 2003 Issue

Energy Trends in Buildings

Average energy consumption (Btu/sq. ft) Before 1920 80,127 1920 – 1945 90,234 1946 – 1959 80,198 1960 – 1969 90,976 1970 – 1979 94,968 1980 – 1989 100,077 1990 – 1999 88,834 2000 – 2003 79,703

Source: EIA/DOE 2006 Energy Book They predict no improvement in efficiency

for the next 30 years for new or existing! What are they smoking???? Or ????

Opportunity for Change Each year in the United States, we tear down

approximately 1.75 billion square feet of buildings, renovate 5 billion square feet, and build new another 5 billion square feet.

During the next 30 years, some 50 billion square feet will be torn down, some 150 billion will be renovated, and another 150 billion will be built new.

By 2030, three-quarters of the built environment will be either new or renovated.AIA COTE: Ecology and Design: Ecological Literacy in Architecture Education, 2006

AIA 2030 Position Statement

Promote sustainable design including resource conservation to achieve a minimum 50 percent reduction from the current level of consumption of fossil fuels used to construct and operate new and renovated buildings by the year 2010, and promote further reductions of remaining fossil fuel consumption by 10 percent or more in each of the following five years.

Source: AIA November 2005

AIA 2010 Goals AIA baseline is ENERGY STAR® Target Finder. This is the average building of that type in that weather

region. Average Office building in Chicago uses:

92.3 kBtu/sf (5,000 sf) 101.5 kBtu/sf (20,000 sf) 113.3 kBtu/sf (100,000 sf)

Pretty weak standard! ASHRAE Std 90.1-1999 yields about 67 kBtu/sf for an

office building (including plug loads). If we target 30% below that (about 47 kBtu/sf), you will

get an AIA 2010 building.

ASHRAE Actions

Advanced Energy Design Guides: 30%, 50%, 75%, then Net Zero Energy Small Buildings (<20,000sf) Office, Retail, K-12 Schools, Warehouses, Highway

Lodging, High-rise Residential, and Existing Buildings.

Schedule: Complete all 30% guides by 2008. Complete all 50% guides by 2011. Complete all 70% guides by 2016. Complete “net-zero” guidance 2020.

ASHRAE Actions/Initiatives

Standard 90.1-2007 Energy Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Bldgs - 5 to -7% below 2004.

Standard 90.1-2010 Energy Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Bldgs 30 percent reduction from 90.1-2004.

California requiring commercial buildings to be net zero energy by 2020 and residential building to be net zero energy by 2030.

Why Be Energy Efficient?

Reduce operating costs. Stabilize atmospheric carbon & reduce global

climate change impacts. Improve the quality of life in our buildings and

communities. The energy efficiency policies, building and

appliance codes, incentives, and technology improvements in the U.S. since the mid-1970s now avoid the use of approximately: 40 quadrillion Btu—roughly 40 percent of the energy

currently consumed. Emission of more than 2 billion tons of CO2 per year.

Energy Efficiency

The cost of saving energy is going down while the price of energy is going up.

Efficiency is the cleanest, cheapest, safest, and most secure source energy we have.

These savings from energy efficiency to date have not yet come close to tapping the full potential for savings.

Incentives are available under EPAct 2005 to get deductions and tax credits for energy efficiency and renewable energy.

Energy Opportunities

SEDAC has looked at about 200 commercial buildings.

Potential energy savings ranged from a high of 80% to a low of 3%for existing buildings and between 86% and 12% for new designs.

Data from 70 existing buildings shows: 32% energy savings. 34% energy cost savings.

Data from 39 new building designs shows: 41% energy savings. 38% energy cost savings.

Implications We estimate is costs a client about $68/million Btu to

save energy. This is heavily weighted towards retrofits. Our program of analysis costs about $16/million Btu of

recommended savings. Current energy costs are around $11/MBtu of Natural

Gas and $27/MBtu of Electricity. Energy savings are about 1/3 electricity and 2/3 natural

gas. Weighted cost of about $17 with a 4 year payback. (Not

good enough for many businesses.)

Sustainability for a Region

Analyzed Fort Bragg, Fayetteville, NC, and the eight counties around it.

Modeled dynamic urban growth for 35 years into the future.

Develop energy and water projections associated with that growth based on business as usual.

Analyzed potential interventions to change the future.

Project Future Change

Land Use Evolution andImpact Assessment Model(LEAM)

Columbus/Ft Benning

Fort Bragg2000-20353% population growth per year

Perform Gap Analysis

2000

2030

+ 500,000 population

+ 200,000 households+ 260 million sq. ft. of

commercial/industrial- 19,000 acres of

agriculture- 34,000 acres of forest

The Concept

Current State

Possible Future Outcomes resulting from actions taken along the way

Preferred Future State

Current-Trend

Energy Model

TOTAL ENERGY USAGE

Existing Comercial Industrial Bldg Stock

New Comm Ind Bldgs

Comm Ind Energy Usage

Existing Residential Bldg Stock

New Residential Bldgs

Transportation Energy Usage

Infrastructure Energy UsageResidential Energy Usage

Renewables

Agricultural Lands

Agricultural Energy Factors

Public Transit

Commercial Trans

Residentail Trans

Residential Energy Factors

Comm Energy Factors

Land Use Change

Land Use Change

Agricultural Energy Usage

Renewables

Total Energy 41% Increase

Energy Interventions Building Code Adoption over time:

2010 – 30% Reduction 2015 – 50% Reduction 2020 – 75% Reduction 2025 – Net Zero Energy Buildings

Existing Building Initiatives: 2015 – 20% Target 2025 – 40% Target

Agricultural Initiatives: 2015 – Energy Efficiency 35% Potential 2015 – Renewable Energy 25% Potential

Transportation Initiatives (2012 – 40%): Biofuels GHG Standards HEV/PHEV Penetration

Energy Efficiency And Renewables

Energy Intervention Scenario

Air Emissions Model

AIR EMISSIONS

Nonpoint Source Emissions

LandUse Change

Agriculture

Technology Change

Point Source Emiisions

Emission Factors

Pollution Control Porgrams

Total Energy Consumption

Carbon Sequestration

Airshed Cleansing

Forests

Built Environment

Air EmissionsA 48% Increase

Air Emissions

Regional CO2 Implications

Water Model

TOTAL WATER USAGE

Existing Comercial Industrial Bldg Stock

New Comm Ind Bldgs

Comm Ind Water Usage

Existing Residential Bldg Stock

New Residential Bldgs

Infrastructure Water Losses

Residential Water Usage

Conservation Practices

Agricultural Lands

Agricultural Water Factors

Residential Water Factors

Comm Ind Water Factors

Land Use Change

Land Use Change

Agricultural Water Usage

Conservation Practices

Intervention BMPs

Fort Bragg (2004) Public System Water Loss

Control (2010) Commercial/Industrial Water

Conservation Program (2012) Resident Water Conservation

Program (2015) Agricultural Water

Conservation Program (2018)

Regional Actions

Regional intervention requires long tern approached with regional stakeholders to enable planning initiatives.

Intervention done in a timely manner can made a tremendous difference in a region.

The trick is getting all the vested interests to engage and actually start to change policy for a sustainable future

Incentives are required to get people to adopt new technology and new ways.

Water is more intractable than energy.

Earth’s Water

Energy/Water Nexus

The major fresh water consuming sectors are not buildings – they are agriculture and thermoelectric power.

Agriculture and thermoelectric use about 40% each, while buildings use about 12% of the supply.

Our energy security is closely linked to the state of our water resources. Water resources are require to achieve any sort of energy security in the years and decades ahead.

Our water security cannot be guaranteed without careful attention to related energy issues. The two issues are inextricably linked.

Fresh Water in the US

USGS 2004

All numbers in MGD

Energy/Water Nexus

Each kilowatt hour of electricity requires about 27 gallons of water.

500 MW coal-fired power plant requires over 12 million gallons per hour of water for cooling and other process requirements such as scrubbing sulfur dioxide from the stack gases.

Energy security rests on two principles – using less energy to provide needed services and having access to technologies that provide a diverse supply of reliable, affordable and environmentally sound energy.

Thermoelectric power plants don’t get us there.

Proposed Energy Sources

New electrical sources that don’t use water: Photovoltaics Wind turbines Low-head hydro Coal gasification combined cycle (CGCC)

New energy sources for liquid fuels: Tar sands Oil shale Coal to liquids Biofuels – Ethanol & Biodiesel

Source: USDOE, Oct 2007

Ethanol from Corn

Water Associated

Oil Shale – 1-3 barrels per barrel oil Production level of 2.5 million bbl/day

requires 105-315 MGD. Associated water consumption with

development 58 MGD. Tar Sands – 2-4 barrels/bbl

Plus 4% of Canada NG supply. Coal to Liquids – 5-7 bbl/bbl.

Energy/Water Nexus

Informs us that the path is not with traditional energy sources.

We must greatly increase the energy and water efficiency of our built environment and agriculture.

Water is going to be a bigger and tougher problem than energy to solve.

Non-water based renewables must be our focus.