DON’T PANIC!

Crowd behaviour in emergencies

Dr Chris CockingDr Chris CockingUniversity of SussexUniversity of Sussexcpc20@sussex.ac.ukcpc20@sussex.ac.uk

6/9/20056/9/2005

Outline of Presentation

1) Background and aims of research1) Background and aims of research 2) Examples of how behaviour in 2) Examples of how behaviour in

emergencies support our theoriesemergencies support our theories 3) How this may be useful in managing 3) How this may be useful in managing

future crowd evacuationsfuture crowd evacuations 4) brief demonstration of VR programme 4) brief demonstration of VR programme 5) Any questions/ points for discussion5) Any questions/ points for discussion

Context of research Crowd behaviour theories have developed over Crowd behaviour theories have developed over

timetime 1919thth Century- Le Bon irrationalist approach Century- Le Bon irrationalist approach 1960s - 70s more rationalist approach1960s - 70s more rationalist approach From 1980s to present- crowd behaviour From 1980s to present- crowd behaviour

increasingly seen as governed by social norms- increasingly seen as governed by social norms- beyond rational or irrational as this is a matter of beyond rational or irrational as this is a matter of interpretation -The Social Identity Modelinterpretation -The Social Identity Model

The ‘Panic’ model Part of the irrationalist tradition in crowd Part of the irrationalist tradition in crowd

psychologypsychology Reproduces dominant image: Reproduces dominant image: a)Threat causesa)Threat causes e emotion to overwhelm reasonmotion to overwhelm reason b) Collective identity breaks downb) Collective identity breaks down c) Selfish behaviours- pushing trampling etcc) Selfish behaviours- pushing trampling etc d) Contagion-these behaviours spread easily to d) Contagion-these behaviours spread easily to

crowd as a wholecrowd as a whole

Scope of research project

3 year project funded by ESRC since April 3 year project funded by ESRC since April 2004 to see if existing psychological 2004 to see if existing psychological models of crowd behaviour can be applied models of crowd behaviour can be applied to emergencies to emergencies

Taking a critical look at the ‘panic model’Taking a critical look at the ‘panic model’ 3 different areas of research; interviews, 3 different areas of research; interviews,

room evacuations, and VR simulationsroom evacuations, and VR simulations

Research into 7th July Gathering data from Press reports and web-Gathering data from Press reports and web-

logslogs Web- based questionnaire study for eye-Web- based questionnaire study for eye-

witnesses of bombings; witnesses of bombings; http://www.http://www.cscs..nottnott.ac.uk/~.ac.uk/~dzsdzs//londonbomblondonbomb/index./index.htmhtm

Interview studies to comeInterview studies to come Results so far support our theoriesResults so far support our theories

7th July terrorist attacks Rough chronology of events on the tubeRough chronology of events on the tube 1) Blast followed by darkness and silence1) Blast followed by darkness and silence 2) Screams of fear and distress- passengers try to 2) Screams of fear and distress- passengers try to

find out what’s going onfind out what’s going on 3) Smoke & soot clear- attempts to help/ comfort 3) Smoke & soot clear- attempts to help/ comfort

others, & escape- some delay because of fear that others, & escape- some delay because of fear that tracks are livetracks are live

4) Passengers wait approx 30 mins. for rescue, and 4) Passengers wait approx 30 mins. for rescue, and walk in orderly fashion along tracks when directed walk in orderly fashion along tracks when directed

7th July terrorist attacks

Individual fear and distress, but no mass Individual fear and distress, but no mass panicpanic

Evacuations characterised by orderly, calm Evacuations characterised by orderly, calm behaviourbehaviour

Many reports of altruism, co-operation, and Many reports of altruism, co-operation, and collective spirit of Londoners/ UK as a collective spirit of Londoners/ UK as a wholewhole

Why no Mass Panic?

1) British Bulldog spirit meant we were 1) British Bulldog spirit meant we were used to it or even expecting it ?used to it or even expecting it ?

2) Information withheld?2) Information withheld? 3) Mass Panic is extremely rare anyway? 3) Mass Panic is extremely rare anyway?

Only when chance to behave co-operatively Only when chance to behave co-operatively has gone has gone

The myth of Panic

Many accounts of ‘panic’Many accounts of ‘panic’ But what actually is panic, and what is But what actually is panic, and what is

logical flight behaviour?logical flight behaviour? Need to look at what people actually do, Need to look at what people actually do,

and decide if it is indeed ‘panic’and decide if it is indeed ‘panic’ More than just semantics, as it could affect More than just semantics, as it could affect

emergency evacuation planningemergency evacuation planning

Panic? 1)’There was no real panic - just an overwhelming 1)’There was no real panic - just an overwhelming

sense to get out of the station quickly’sense to get out of the station quickly’ 2) ‘almost straight away our packed carriage 2) ‘almost straight away our packed carriage

started to fill with smoke, and people panicked started to fill with smoke, and people panicked immediately. Thankfully there were some level-immediately. Thankfully there were some level-headed people on the carriage who managed to headed people on the carriage who managed to calm everyone down’calm everyone down’

Unity

‘‘I felt there was a real sense of unity. We were all I felt there was a real sense of unity. We were all trying our best to find a way out of there and trying our best to find a way out of there and reassure each other’.reassure each other’.

‘‘One of the things which struck me about this One of the things which struck me about this experience is that one minute you are standing experience is that one minute you are standing around strangers and the next minute they become around strangers and the next minute they become the closest and most important people in your life. the closest and most important people in your life. That feeling was quite extraordinary’That feeling was quite extraordinary’

Co-operative behaviour

1)‘Many people kept calm and tried to help one 1)‘Many people kept calm and tried to help one another to see if anyone was injured’another to see if anyone was injured’

2)‘I was very aware of people helping each 2)‘I was very aware of people helping each other out and I was being helped myself’other out and I was being helped myself’

3) ‘Passengers with medical experience were 3) ‘Passengers with medical experience were found, I found a tool box and we smashed a found, I found a tool box and we smashed a window, allowing the medical guys to enter the window, allowing the medical guys to enter the other train’other train’

Orderly evacuation? ‘‘Everyone was pretty calm and no-one made a Everyone was pretty calm and no-one made a

rush for the doors in a panicked fashion’ rush for the doors in a panicked fashion’ ‘‘About 20 minutes later the message came through About 20 minutes later the message came through

that those who could walk should move to the that those who could walk should move to the front of the train and disembark and walk down front of the train and disembark and walk down the track. [] after a short distance we were stopped the track. [] after a short distance we were stopped and told that a person had been blown out of the and told that a person had been blown out of the train against the tunnel wall and could not be train against the tunnel wall and could not be moved as he was critical’moved as he was critical’

Since July 7th

2121stst July attempted bombings July attempted bombings 2222ndnd July Stockwell shooting July Stockwell shooting 33rdrd August smoking bus evacuation August smoking bus evacuation On each occasion more urgency and On each occasion more urgency and

distress reporteddistress reported Some reports of pushing/ stampedingSome reports of pushing/ stampeding But is this mass panic?But is this mass panic?

Definite urgency to evacuate

1) ‘Some people left behind their shoes and 1) ‘Some people left behind their shoes and their bags of shopping.’their bags of shopping.’

2) ‘The door to the next carriage burst open 2) ‘The door to the next carriage burst open and dozens of people rushed in. Some were and dozens of people rushed in. Some were falling’falling’

But is this mass panic?

‘‘Some people were panicking and Some people were panicking and screaming. People still did not know what screaming. People still did not know what was going on, some people did try to get on was going on, some people did try to get on to the train on the opposite platform. Some to the train on the opposite platform. Some people tried to stand around asking and people tried to stand around asking and some people just tried to find their way out’some people just tried to find their way out’

Co-operation

‘‘The guy just ran and started running up the The guy just ran and started running up the escalator everyone was screaming to stop escalator everyone was screaming to stop him’him’

Stockwell shooting 22/7/05 ‘‘Lots of people at the other end started Lots of people at the other end started

shouting "Get off! Get off!" and running shouting "Get off! Get off!" and running down the platform away from the train. I down the platform away from the train. I heard 5 gun shots, although did not see heard 5 gun shots, although did not see anything as I was running away from the anything as I was running away from the train trying to find an exit. We all followed train trying to find an exit. We all followed each other and reached a dead end on the each other and reached a dead end on the Victoria line platform, everyone was very Victoria line platform, everyone was very frightened and didn't know where to go’ frightened and didn't know where to go’

Panic as passengers leap from smoking bus’ Guardian 3/8/05 Mechanical failure on bus causes fire but no Mechanical failure on bus causes fire but no

bombbomb 6 injured as people jump out of emergency 6 injured as people jump out of emergency

exit, 4 metres up exit, 4 metres up ‘‘passengers were streaming out of the top passengers were streaming out of the top

window, dropping down and piling on each window, dropping down and piling on each other, getting as far away as possible’other, getting as far away as possible’

Baghdad stampede 31/8/05

Baghdad stampede- incompetence or conspiracy?

Panic to flee suspected suicide bomber?Panic to flee suspected suicide bomber?

Mismanagement of large crowd in confined Mismanagement of large crowd in confined area?area?

Possible applications of my work

11) More information rather than less) More information rather than less Very little evidence supports idea that people will Very little evidence supports idea that people will

panic if they know severity of the situationpanic if they know severity of the situation If information is given in clear ways that people If information is given in clear ways that people

can safely act upon to escape threat, they usually can safely act upon to escape threat, they usually dodo

Consequently, deliberately withholding info could Consequently, deliberately withholding info could cause problems in any future emergencies, as cause problems in any future emergencies, as people may not trust accuracy of messagespeople may not trust accuracy of messages

Possible applications of my work

2)2) How this information is relayed and by How this information is relayed and by whom affects whether it is believed and whom affects whether it is believed and acted uponacted upon

Information needs to be clear and Information needs to be clear and unambiguous, and come from believable unambiguous, and come from believable source that crowd identifies with source that crowd identifies with

This could depend on type of crowd; e.g. This could depend on type of crowd; e.g. commuters, football fans commuters, football fans

Possible applications of my work

3)3) Appealing to the crowds’ collective Appealing to the crowds’ collective identity/ common humanity identity/ common humanity

Having a common fate can encourage co-Having a common fate can encourage co-operative behaviour- ‘we’re all in this operative behaviour- ‘we’re all in this together’together’

Sir Ian Blair-‘communities defeat terrorism’ Sir Ian Blair-‘communities defeat terrorism’ Having out-groups can strengthen in-group Having out-groups can strengthen in-group

identity, but is a double-edged swordidentity, but is a double-edged sword

Can you help with the research?

1) Visit web-site?1) Visit web-site? 2) Access to CCTV footage?2) Access to CCTV footage? 3) Interested in developing VR programme 3) Interested in developing VR programme

as a training tool?as a training tool?

Summary

1) Crowds in emergencies behave in ways 1) Crowds in emergencies behave in ways that are consistent with their social that are consistent with their social identities and governed by the social norms identities and governed by the social norms of the situationof the situation

2) The ‘panic model’ is largely a myth2) The ‘panic model’ is largely a myth 3)Evidence gathered from July 73)Evidence gathered from July 7 thth attacks attacks

supports our theoriessupports our theories

VR evacuation programme

Joint project with computing scientists at Joint project with computing scientists at University of Nottingham who are University of Nottingham who are experienced in emergency simulationsexperienced in emergency simulations

We are currently asking potential users We are currently asking potential users what they would like to see it do with a what they would like to see it do with a view to marketing it as a training toolview to marketing it as a training tool