doug long vice president industry relations ims health · about ims health ® • operating in more...

US pharmaceutical market: trends, issues, forecast

Doug Long

Vice President Industry Relations

IMS Health

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The World Pharmaceutical Market

2006 Strategic management review

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About IMS Health®

• Operating in more than 100 countries, IMS is the world’s leading provider of information solutions to the pharmaceutical and healthcare industries.

• With $2.0 Billion in 2006 revenue and more than 50 years of industry experience, IMS offers leading-edge business intelligence products and services that are integral to client’s day-to-day operations, including portfolio optimization capabilities; launch and brand management solutions; sales force effectiveness innovations; and managed care and over-the-counter offerings.

• IMS’s Global Consulting and Services group is the industry premier resource for answers and actionable insights that improve ROI and the delivery of quality healthcare worldwide

• Additional information is available at http//www.imshealth.com

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The US Pharmaceutical Market Growth is Moderating (Data through May 2007)

8.5

5.4

7.1

4.8

6.5

5

3.7 3.5

0123456789

Latest 12Months

Latest 6Months

YTD CurrentMonth

Dollars TRXs

Percent Change vs. Yr Ago

5

Generics ahead of brands in Rx and sales dollar growth

Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, Mar 2007

Sales growth Twelve months ending 1Q 2007

Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, Mar 2007

TRx growth Twelve months ending 1Q 2007

6.8%8.9% 9.9%

26.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

MAT 1Q 2007

5.2%

-4.4%

1.2%

13.2%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

MAT 1Q 2007

Total market Brands Branded generics Unbranded generics

6

2003

Brandedgenerics

12% Brands73%

Unbrandedgenerics

16%

Unbranded generics contributed more to sales growth in the MAT to Q1 2007 than in 2003


Contribution to sales growth percentage of absolute change

MAT 1Q 2007

Brandedgenerics

11%

Brands62%

Unbrandedgenerics

27%

AC = +$23bnAC = +$24bn

7

Unbranded generics are gaining traction

86% 85% 84% 83% 83% 81% 80% 80%

51% 51% 49% 46% 44% 40% 37% 36%

8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10%

11% 11% 11%11%

11%10%

9% 9%

6% 6% 7% 8% 8% 10% 10%

38% 38% 40% 43% 46% 50% 54% 55%

9%

9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MAT1Q

2007

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MAT1Q

2007

Brands Branded generics Unbranded generics

Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit Plus, National Sales Perspectives, Mar 2007

% Dollars % Total prescriptions dispensed

8

Growth of generic sales is volatile but above brands now for five years

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MAT 1Q2007

SA

LES

GRO

WTH

%

Total marketUnbranded genericsBrandsBranded generics


Percent change vs. prior year

9

Generics driving total market recovery in Rx growth; Branded generics growth now positive

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MAT 1Q2007

TRX G

RO

WTH

%

Total marketUnbranded genericsBrandsBranded generics


Percent change vs. prior year

10

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MAT 1Q2007

TRXS M

N

Unbranded genericsBrandsBranded generics

Absolute growth of unbranded generics takes off in the last four years; brands down


Absolute growth of prescriptions

11

Generics continue to gain traction (Branded generics are allocated to brands and generic)

89% 90% 89% 88% 88% 87% 85% 85%

54% 53% 52% 50% 47% 43% 39% 38%

11% 10% 11% 12% 12% 15% 15%

47% 47% 48% 51% 53% 57% 61% 62%

13%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

MAT 1

Q 200

720

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

06MAT

1Q 2

007

Brands Generics

% Dollars % Total Prescriptions Dispensed

Source: IMS Health, IMS National Prescription Audit, Plus, IMS National Sales Perspectives, Mar 2007

Branded Generics Disaggregated

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MAT 1Q 2007 absolute growth – corporations

Dollars AC US$bn Total Rx dispensed AC

TRxs mnRoche (incl Genentech) 2.6 Teva 53.0

Amgen 2.4 Mylan 27.1

Teva 2.0 Apotex 18.0

AstraZeneca 1.9 Barr (incl Pliva) 13.9

Apotex 1.2 Lupin Pharma 13.9

GlaxoSmithkline 1.1 Dr Reddys 11.4

Novartis (incl Sandoz) 1.0 Ranbaxy 10.8

Abbott 0.8 Watson 10.8

Lilly 0.7 AstraZeneca 10.6

Dr Reddys 0.7 Lannett 10.1

Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, National Prescription Audit, Mar 2007

March 2007 update

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MAT 1Q 2007 absolute growth - products

Dollars AC US$mn Total Rx dispensed

AC TRxs mn

simvastatin Teva 1,110 azithromycin Greenstone 14.5

clopidogrel Apotex 1,101 levothyroxine Mylan 14.4

Aranesp ® Amgen 1,023 simvastatin Teva 14.0

Vytorin® Merck & SP 876 lisinopril Lupin 11.4

Avastin® Genentech 705 sertraline hcl Greenstone 10.0

Cymbalta® Lilly 640 clopidogrel Apotex 9.9

Nexium ® AstraZeneca 639 fluticasone Par 8.8

sertraline hcl Greenstone 624 sertraline hcl Teva 8.2

Lucentis® Genentech 614 azithromycin Teva 8.0

Lyrica ® Pfizer 581 Vytorin ® Merck & SP 7.6

Source: IMS Health, National Sales Perspectives, National Prescription Audit Plus, Dec 2006

March 2007 update

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Top launches in 2006: seven of the top 10 are generics based on average monthly sales


Top 10 2006 launches by avg mthly sales

Mfr MonthAvg mthly

sales

1 clopidogrel bisulf Apotex Aug-06 137.7

2 simvastatin Teva Jun-06 111.0

3 Lucentis Genentech Jul-06 68.3

4 sertraline hcl Greenstone Jun-06 62.4

5 simvastatin Dr Reddys Jun-06 47.7

6 budeprion xl Teva Dec-06 47.7

7 sertraline hcl Teva Aug-06 46.1

8 Atripla BMS/Merck/Gilead Feb-06 41.4

9 Gardasil Merck Jul-06 38.7

10 fluticasone prop Par Feb-06 31.3

Key trends and issues

Performance overview

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Amgen growing at 19%, Roche at 30% and Pfizer still negative but recovering


Leading corporations

MAT 1Q 2007

US$mn % Share % Change

US industry 280,460 100.0 8.9%

1 Pfizer 26,405 9.4 -1.9%

2 GlaxoSmithKline 21,597 7.7 5.4%

3 Merck 16,358 5.8 2.0%

4 Johnson & Johnson 16,241 5.8 2.8%

5 AstraZeneca 14,945 5.3 14.3%

6 Amgen 14,843 5.3 18.9%

7 Novartis (incl. Sandoz) 14,199 5.1 7.8%

8 Sanofi-Aventis 11,328 4.0 3.3%

9 Roche (incl. Genentech) 11,081 4.0 29.9%

10 Lilly 9,485 3.4 7.9%

Top 10 156,482 55.8% 7%

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Teva moving up; counting Novartis, three major generic companies in the top 20


Leading corporations

MAT 1Q 2007


11 Abbott 9,008 3.2 9.5%

12 Wyeth 8,445 3.0 1.6%

13 Teva 7,657 2.7 35.2%

14 Bristol Myers Squibb 5,862 2.1 -28.8%

15 Boehringer Ingelheim 5,543 2.0 4.8%

16 TAP Pharmaceuticals 4,665 1.7 -2.9%

17 Schering-Plough 3,861 1.4 14.7%

18 Forest 3,645 1.3 12.6%

19 Watson 3,337 1.2 11.5%

20 Eisai 2,995 1.1 5.2%

Top 20 211,500 75.4 6.2%

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56%45%

20%

9%

25%

46%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

US sales share Contribution to sales growth

Small companies are contributing more to growth


Twelve months ending March 2007

Top10

Top11-20

All others

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Together, Teva and Ivax create a generics giant controlling a fifth of the generics business


Sales of unbranded generics by leading corporations

MAT 1Q 2007


US industry 28,929 10.3% 27%

1. Teva (incl Ivax) 5,690 19.7 35%

2. Novartis (Sandoz) 2,725 9.4 1%

3. Mylan 2,308 8.0 15%

4. Watson 1,949 6.7 18%

5. Apotex 1,777 6.1 194%

6. Pfizer (Greenstone) 1,738 6.0 105%

7. Par 1,307 4.5 26%

8. Barr Labs (incl Pliva) 985 3.4 14%

9. Boehringer Ingelheim 955 3.3 32%

10. Dr Reddy’s 747 2.6 1247%

Top 10 20,180 69.7 37%

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Generics companies dominated the top 10 on a total prescription basis

MAT 1Q 2007

Leading corporations TRxs mn % Share % Change

US industry 3,751 100 5.1%

1. Teva 430 11.5 14.0%

2. Pfizer 290 7.7 -4.1%

3. Novartis (incl. Sandoz) 279 7.4 1.2%

4. Mylan 262 7 11.5%

5. Watson 214 5.7 5.3%

6. Barr Labs (incl. Pliva) 136 3.6 11.4%

7. Merck 125 3.3 -3.0%

8. AstraZeneca 118 3.1 9.8%

9. GlaxoSmithKline 116 3.1 -8.6%

10. Mallinckrodt 108 2.9 5.2%

Top 10 2,078 55.4% 4.9%

Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, MAT March 2007

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Combination of Teva and Ivax creates a generics giant controlling a fifth of the market


Prescriptions of unbranded generics by leading corporations

MAT 1Q 2007

US TRX % Share % Change

US industry 2,063 55.0% 13%

1. Teva (incl. Ivax) 411 19.9% 13%

2. Mylan 250 12.1% 12%

3. Novartis (incl. Sandoz) 197 9.5% 1%

4. Watson 180 8.7% 5%

5. Barr Labs (incl Pliva) 106 5.1% 15%

6. Mallinckrodt 105 5.1% 6%

7. Actavis 80 3.9% -2%

8. Qualitest 71 3.4% 7%

9. Par 70 3.4% 6%

10. Pfizer (incl. Greenstone) 65 3.1% 64%

Top 10 1,535 89.1% 11%

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Lipid regulators are still the leading class while cancer therapies show strong growth


MAT 1Q 2007

Leading classes US$mn % Share % Growth

US industry 280,460 100 8.9%

1. Lipid regulators 21,013 7.5 2.9%

2. Proton pump inhibitors 13,788 4.9 5.3%

3. Anti-depressants 13,083 4.7 3.2%

4. Anti-psychotics 12,038 4.3 11.9%

5. Erythropoietins 10,182 3.6 13.4%

6. Seizure disorders 9,230 3.3 14.1%

7. Monoclonal antibodies 6,262 2.2 39.2%

8. Angiotensin II antagonists 6,000 2.1 15.0%

9. Insulin sensitizers 4,865 1.7 11.6%

10. Calcium blockers 4,834 1.7 4.2%

Top 10 101,294 36.1% 9.2%

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Lipid lowering agents led all classes by prescription volume in 2006

MAT 1Q 2007

Leading therapy classes TRXs mn % Share % Change

US Industry 3,751 100 5.1%

1. Lipid lowering agents 188 5 13.2%

2. Codeine & comb 179 4.8 6.1%

3. Anti-depressants 156 4.2 7.1%

4. Ace inhibitors 156 4.2 6.8%

5. Beta blockers 132 3.5 5.6%

6. Proton pump inhibitors 104 2.8 11.7%

7. Synthetic thyroid hormone 99 2.6 5.3%

8. Seizure disorders 97 2.6 9.7%

9. Calcium blockers 87 2.3 2.6%

10. Benzodiazepines 81 2.2 4.4%

Top 10 1,278 34.1% 7.5%

Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, MAT Mar 2007

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Lipitor® continues on top; Nexium®, Aranesp®

and Advair Diskus® moving up


MAT 1Q 2007

Products Company US$mn % Share % Growth

US industry 280,460 100 8.9%

1. Lipitor® Pfizer 8,578 3.1 0.9%

2. Nexium® AstraZeneca 5,223 1.9 13.9%

3. Aranesp® Amgen 4,065 1.4 33.6%

4. Advair Diskus® GSK 4,047 1.4 8.9%

5. Prevacid® TAP 3,530 1.3 -6.1%

6. Epogen® Amgen 3,214 1.1 7.7%

7. Enbrel® Amgen 3,157 1.1 11.4%

8. Singulair® Merck 3,127 1.1 18.3%

9. Seroquel® AstraZeneca 3,125 1.1 14.1%

10. Neulasta® Amgen 3,015 1.1 23.8%

Top 10 41,080 14.6% 10.3%

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Among leading prescription products, generics show the highest growth

MAT 1Q 2007Leading Products Company TRXs mn % Share % Change

US industry 3,751 100 5.1%

1. Lipitor® Pfizer 72 1.9 -4.1%

2. HYCD/APAP Mallinckrodt 68 1.8 7.7%

3. Toprol-XL® AstraZeneca 40 1.1 3.5%

4. Norvasc® Pfizer 40 1.1 1.1%

5. HYCD/APAP Watson 36 1 22.7%

6. amoxicillin Teva 34 0.9 1.5%

7. Nexium® AstraZeneca 31 0.8 12.8%

8. Lexapro® Forest 31 0.8 5.9%

9. Synthroid® Abbott 30 0.8 -9.1%

10. Singulair® Merck 29 0.8 13.8%

Top 10 412 11.0% 4.2%Source: IMS Health, National Prescription Audit, MAT Mar 2007

Future outlook

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US market five year outlook 2006-2011: opportunities and challenges

• Future NCEs, active pipeline of specialty products, biologics, and vaccines

• Medicare drug benefit• Strong demand fueled by

aging population• Future patent

expirations/generics• Weaker than expected

performance of NCEs in 2005

• Safety concerns• Decline of detailing • Therapeutic substitution

CAGR 5-8%

Thank you!

Doug Long Vice President Industry Relations

IMS Healthemail: [email protected]

phone: 973 904-6430

doug long vice president industry relations ims health · about ims health ® • operating in more...

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