© Crown copyright Met Office
WCRP Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual
Prediction
Adam Scaife (Met Office) & Francisco Doblas-Reyes (IC3)
(WGSIP co-chairs)
Near term climate predictions for GFCS:WGSIP with WMO Global Producing Centres
See also the WMO Lead Centre for long range forecast multi-model ensembles: www.wmolc.org
WCRP Grand Challenge #1
WMO Global Producing Centres
See also the WMO Lead Centre for long range forecast multi-model ensembles: www.wmolc.org
(1st) International workshop on seasonal to decadal prediction
Toulouse May 13-16, special thanks to George Boer and Laurent Terray
http://chfps.cima.fcen.uba.ar/CIMA CHFP Data Server
CHFP database “CMIP for seasonal forecasting”
NAO prediction skill
Skill of NAO forecasts increases with ensemble size
Signals to noise is small so large ensembles are needed!
All models show some skill and the predictability of the NAO is much higher than in previous operational systems
© Crown copyright Met Office
Stratosphere Historical Forecast Projecta WGSIP-SPARC project
Amy Butler, Adam Scaife, Alexander Lawes, Natalia Calvo, Andrew Charlton-Perez + WGSIP members
High Top HindcastsParallel to WGSIP-CHFPExtended modelsInitialising extra atmosphere, better represented stratosphere
Integrations
• 4 month lead times (1st November and 1st May start dates)
• 2 seasons (DJF and JJA)
• Case study years: 1989 onwards
• At least 6 members per year, preferably more
Land surface: Impact of initialisationRevisiting GLACE2: Difference in the correlation of the ensemble-mean near-surface temperature from two experiments, one using a realistic and another a climatological land-surface initialisation. Results for EC-Earth2.3 started every May over 1979-2010 with ERAInt and ORAS4 initial conditions and a sea-ice reconstruction.
C. Prodhomme (IC3)
May (first forecast month) JJA (forecast months 2-4)
J. García-Serrano (IPSL)
IceHFP: Predictions of DJF NAO with EC-Earth2.3 started in November over 1979-2010 with ERAInt and ORAS4 initial conditions. Two sets, one initialised with realistic (top) and one with climatological (bottom) sea-ice initial conditions.
Sea ice: Impact of initialisation
WGSIP WGCMDCPP
Decadal Prediction
Decadal PredictionsCMIP5 Protocol
CMIP-WGCM-WGSIP oversee this frameworkPart of our discussions is to think about ‘What next?’Working with Veronika Eyring, George Boer et al on CMIP6
CMIP5 decadal predictions
Predictions (yr 2-5) from 6 CMIP5 systems
Initialized solid, uninitialised dashed
Global-mean T and Atlantic multi-decadal variability
Correlations and RMSE below
BUT
Outstanding issues with protocol
See proposal for a joint WGCM/WGSIP/CLIVAR for CMIP6….
Doblas-Reyes et al. (2013) Forecast time
Real Time Decadal Forecast Exchange
Doug Smith, Adam Scaife and the decadal prediction community….
15th session of the WMO Commission for Climatology recommended action to start the coordination and exchange of decadal predictions
Proposal went out to various groups to exchange decadal prediction information
research exercise – we can learn a lot from this
prevent over-confidence from a single model
equal access, ownership and recognition
Uni. Tokyo – Kimoto Masahide , MRI – Masayoshi Ishii, SMHI – Klaus Wyser,Colin Jones, KNMI – Wilco Hazeleger, IC3 – Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Virginie Guemas, MPI – Daniela Matei, Wolfgang Muller, Holger
Pohlman, CCCMA – George Boer, Bill Merryfield, UKMO-Hadley – Doug Smith, Adam Scaife, READING UNI – Ed Hawkins, NRL – Judith Lean,
David Rind, CERFACS – Christophe Cassou, IPSL – Juliette Mignot
Real Time Decadal Forecasts: 2012-2016 relative to 1971-2000
Forecasts Effect of initialisation
Smith et al, Clim. Dyn., 2012
Decadal Prediction for CMIP6: a proposal
WGSIP, WGCM & CLIVAR developing decadal prediction expts for CMIP6 via Decadal Climate Prediction Panel (George Boer)
WGSIP activities summary
Growing number of seasonal hindcasts in the CHFP database (CMIP for seasonal)
Exciting results for extratropical winter predictability and a clear role for the stratosphere
Increasing interest in the initialisation of sea ice, and revisiting land-surface initialisation
Decadal hindcasts provided to CMIP5 and analyses appearing in literature
Real time decadal predictions being exchanged (Smith et al 2012)
A draft decadal prediction protocol for CMIP6 is being developed jointly by WGSIP/WGCM/CLIVAR following agreement amongst these groups via the Decadal Climate Prediction Panel
Links to S2S
Teleconnections between tropics and extratropics
Drift/initial shock and verification within the first month
Data dissemination
Links to GFCS