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{
Tomorrow’s Energy Today
Final presentation - COMP 410 F12
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{Electrons run our lives.
Motivation
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???
Availability Sustainabili
ty Affordability
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{A Tool for the Future
Introduction
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{ {COMP 410
14 CS students Semester-long
senior design course Completely student-
run Given problem
statement Not a project
Hard at Work!
Who are we?
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{ {John Hofmeister
Former President of Shell
Chief Executive of CFAE
Citizens for Affordable Energy Mission to
educate citizens and government about pragmatic, non-partisan affordable energy solutions
Customer
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Develop a simulation framework capable of simulating the results of custom made energy plans for different energy models
Create a non-partisan plan for the U.S. energy system for the next 50 years Availability, affordability and
sustainability
Problem Statement
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Verify the plan produces desired results on simulator
Make the plan and results readily available to the public to verify and edit
Problem Statement
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I. Model of the US Energy Industry
II. Best-case, average-case, and worst-case 50-year plans for the energy industry
III. SimulatorI. Public Web InterfaceII. Cloud StorageIII. General Purpose Modeling
Specification
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I. Our plans (best, worst and average cases) for the US electrical industry for the next 50 years.
II. Our model of the US electrical industry.
III. Demonstration of our plan and our model in the simulator.
IV. Explanation of simulator.
Contents
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{Average, Best, and Worst Cases
Plan for the Future
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Plan Overview
Components Assumptions
Data via the EIA (Energy Information Administration)
Events Projections
based on current data
Divided into four key sections Consumers Producers Environment Infrastructure
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Plan - Consumers
Assumptions 312,000,000 U.S.
citizens 1.797 MWhr
average peak demand per capita per month
Events All Cases
Population grows by .79% each year.
Worst Case Average peak
demand remains increase greatly.
Average Case Average peak
demand increases. Best Case
Average peak demand decreases.
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Plan - Producers
Assumptions 8 sources of
electricity Coal, Petroleum, &
Natural Gas Nuclear Geothermal,
Hydroelectric, Wind & Solar
Each has: Capacity (in MW) Operating Cost (in $) Carbon Output Rate
(in lbs/kWh)
Events All Cases
Scheduled coal plant retirements.
Worst Case Status quo
Average Case Invest in natural
gas Best Case
Invest in natural gas, nuclear, and wind
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Plan - Infrastructure
Assumptions Average of 7% lost
in energy transport.
Events Worst Case
Status quo. Average Case
2040 , smart grid decreases losses to 4%
Best Case 2035, smart grid
decreases losses to 1%
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{Representing an intertwined system.
Energy Model
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Model: A representation of the energy industry in terms of interconnected modules.
Module: An object which wraps a function and keeps track of values.
Function: A piece of code or math which takes a set of input values and computes a set of output values.
Energy Model
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Model Cont.
Add
Function
Sub
MultAdd
Module
Model
Add3
5
8
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“Characterized by interdependence, mutual interaction, information feedback, and circular causality.” - System Dynamics Society
Abstraction of systems as a series of stocks and influential flows
Benefits: Extensibility Comparability
System Dynamics
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{ {Extensibility
Quickly and easily break down simple stocks/flows into more complex ones.
Comparability
Determine differences in functionality between different models.
SD Advantages
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Producer Consumer Infrastructure
Environment Price
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{
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Five Modules Consumer Producer Infrastructure Environment Price
Our Model
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Consumer Module
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Consumer Demand Curve
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Producer Module
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Desired percentage = F(current price, operating cost)
Supply = capacity * desired percentage
Carbon = supply * carbon output rate
Energy Source Module
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Environment Module
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Infrastructure Module
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Price Module
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Price change % = F(current price, supply, demand)
Change in price = (price change % * current price)/delay
Price = change in price + current price
Price
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{A Tool for Policy
Simulator
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• Load pre-constructed models and plans.
• Make edits to models and plans dynamically.
• Save new models and plans for later use.
• Run a simulation and view results.
Features
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{(Look at the other screen! )
Demonstration
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Architecture
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The two main Design decisions:
• ASP.NET MVC4
• JsPlumb
User Interface Architecture
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Goals Connect Azure VMs for other
subsystems. Manage the process of spawning
and killing Azure VMs. Balance load across VMs. Provide persistent storage.
Network Subsystem
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Network Architecture
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WCF Abstracts lower-level networking
away for simplicity. With TCP, faster than
CloudQueues. SQL Database
Slower than Table Storage, but allows relational organization and querying.
Design Decisions
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Model Architecture
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The Module
Function
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{A Stepping Stone for Policy Decisions
Conclusion
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First-step to actually testing various models and plans for the electricity industry.
Use during policy discussions
General purpose modeling tool No knowledge that a simulation has to do
with a particular industry Can represent any system of
interconnected functions Can be used in many situations, across
industries and disciplines
Analysis
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Improving on the model of the electricity industry
Multiple user levels Redefine user interface, make
more accessible, add features Optimizing feature of load
balancing on cloud (CPU Diagnostics)
Future Work
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• Microsoft• Citizens for Affordable Energy• John & Karen Hofmeister• School of Engineering• CS Department• COMP 410 Staff• Dr. Wong & Dr. Rixner
Thank you!
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Q & A