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Trends in East Asia Institutionalism-Security perspective and an overview
of geopolitical risk in Asia
Week 2 - Sept 8, 2010
Bantarto Bandoro
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ASEAN and East Asia Regional Dynamics
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To weight the strength
1. to weigh the strength of
potential challenges to
security and stability againstthe authority of the:
- institutions,
- mechanisms and
- processes
available to develop instincts to
accommodate national
preferences to the collective
interests of regional states
To resolve
2. to resolve instances of
conflicting aspirations, and
3. to deter any inclinations to
use national power to
intimidate or coerce others
into line in a manner that falls
outside accepted norms ofdiplomatic interaction
between states.
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What is the approach to assessing the reliability of a
regions security architecture ?
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HOWWILL EAST ASIAS ECONOMIC AND SECURITY
INSTITUTIONAL ARCHITECTURE EVOLVE ?
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Trends in East asia multilateral
architecture First, the region accommodate a great variaty of security
architectures, ranging from bilateral to multilateral
arrangements varies from military alliances to institutional
expression of cooperative and comprehensive security Second., an area in which one see the emergence of new
multilateral institutions since the end the Cold War: APEC,
ARF, EAS, Shangrila Dialog and CSCAP the region moves from
dangereously under institutionalized to having an overlapping
multilateral structure
Third, the intensity of the relationship between economic and
security particularly after the financial crisis the APT
incorporate economic and security linkage
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East asia multilateral architecture
Fourth, existing institution in East Asia have taken new
security role since 9 Sept and the Bali bombing. The issues
of health, transnational crime have also increasingly
discussed at the multilareal level.
Fifth, despite the presence of the growing number of
overlapping structures, institutionalism in east continue to
suffer from weask structural capacities that limit their
respond to security challenge . Eg:
1. the ARF success but questionable whether it can move towar prevetive diplomacy.
2. The APT does not the capability to address security
challenges. complex relations between China and Japan
may undermine its effectiveness9/12/2010 5
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Driving forces in the East Asia institutionalism
What will be the driving forces of change in East Asian
institutionalism ?
See the role of :
- The US -> refuse to be excluded from regional institutinalbuilding
- China -> new diplomtic activism in its growing economic and
military growth
- China US relations- ASEAN and Southeast Asia the future of Asian
institutionalism will be influenced by the strength of
regionalism in SEA
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Geopolitical risk
power balance in East Asia An historic shift is occurring in the global balance. The
21st century will witness the assertion of Asia as the
locus of world power and the relative decline of
Europe.
The United States will remain the dominant power for
a long time, perhaps until the middle of the century.
But the world will progressively become a multipolar
world with three Asian great powers (China, Japan
and India) and one Eurasian power (Russia)
competing with the United States.
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The next 20 years
whether this new correlation of forces in
Asia is :
1. a peaceful one or
2. one of competition and conflict.
History tells us that the rapid emergence of a new power has
often disrupted the existing order and led to war (the
examples ofGermany and Japan come to mind).
But there are other instances where a multipolar world has beenmanaged more skilfully and, in this context, the Congress of
Vienna1 which led to a century basically at peace is most
often quoted (although there were the Crimean and the
Franco-Prussian wars).9/12/2010 8
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Asias future
Asias future will be determined by
1. whether there is a cooperative and largely
peaceful interaction between China, Japan,India, Russia and the United States or
2. whether there will be a much more unstable
struggle for influence and power in the years
ahead
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Two Schools of Thought
1. Those affiliated with the first school are
optimistic, believing that the forces of
globalisation and economic interdependence
will encourage nation states to avoid conflict.
2. The second point of view reflects the belief
that it is in the nature of relations between
great powers that they will struggle for
influence and that the legacy of history in
Asia will inevitably lead to conflict.
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The optimist
This is a view often proselytised by the ASEAN countries and
by China (Hu Jintaos harmonious region). It is supported by
the evidence that there has been no major war in Asia since
the end of the Vietnam War over 30 years ago and that
potentially dangerous hot spotssuch as the Korean
peninsula and the Taiwan Straithave not erupted into
armed conflict.
This point of view also argues that Asias security architecture,
and in particular ASEAN and the ASEAN Regional Forum, havedeveloped a uniquely Asian way of ensuring a peaceful
regional order
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The pesimist
The most obvious risk in this regard is the struggle for
influence between China and Japan. But there is
also the danger of collision between a rising China
and the United States as the established dominantpower in the region
This school of thought points to the fragile nature of
regional security architectures, the lack of arms
control and disarmament agreements, and even
basic confidence building measures and military
transparency
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2007
2006
2008
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2008
2008
Vinod K. Aggarval and Ming Gyo Koo,ed.Asias New
Institutional Architecture Evolving Structures for
Managing Trade, Financial, and Security Relations, 2009
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2005
R. Emmerson, East
Asian Institutionalism ,
2008
2009