Download - 1. Graduacao 2008
AppleSteve Jobs (21)Steve Wozniac (26)
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GoogleSergey Brin (25)Larry Page (25)
FacebookMark Zuckerberg (20)
???Page ??? (???)05/05/2008, 18:50:37Page / You only get one life
What to do with it?
See a pattern?
1975: I lost the microcomputer revolution
1985 (-1): I lost the GUI revolution
1995: I lost the web revolution
2005: I lost the Web 2.0 revolution
~2015: the semantic revolution
And we will be one of the drivers
But what are you proposing?
They say that lightning never strikes the same place twice but with Joosts founders it could well become three in a row in terms of phenomenal startups.
TechCrunch
http://www.techcrunch.com/2007/06/15/embedded-joost-will-change-the-market/
2001
In 2002, the Kazaa Web site and logo was sold to Sharman Networks Ltd., which is incorporated on the island of Vanatu near Australia.
2003
2006: Joost
1.000.000 beta users
215 Channels
9208 Programs
Niklas Zennstrm & Janus Friis
Lightning doesnt strike twice
Theyre thinking different!
In the web, running under TCP-IP, data has a physical address.
But to their fasttrack peer-to-peer technology, DATA has no physical address!
I invite you to think different.
But these technologies are hard.
Aren't these guys geniuses?
Is it possible to succeed in Brazil?
The major cost is Diet Coke & Pizza
Can we beat our competitors?
Will our systems pass the do not suck test?
The VCs are arriving
Draper Fisher Jurvetson Enters Brazilian Market
As part of the agreement the two new partners will also launch a $100 million fund, DFJ FIR Brazil Fund II, targeting offshore investors wanting to invest in Brazilian companies in high-growth industries.
DivX, Skype, Mobile 365, and Baidu
But, its not going to be an easy ride
Web 1.0 Crashed
And Web2.0 will, most likely
Excessive euphoria:
-- Geni.com = US$100.000.000,00?
-- Ning.com = US$250.000.000,00?
-- Facebook.com = US$15.000.000.000,00?
Facebook.com = US$15.000.000.000,00?
They could get 20 million kits of Beautiful new look of nose, more than one for each Australian (they go for a mere US$7.50).
"Hey my friend! You have a wide nose. Incidentally, I had a wide nose before, but thanks to 'CoCo Beautiful New Look of Nose', my gargantuan proboscis is a thing of the past. Check it out!"
"Awesome! I can watch this convenient mirror and see my nose slimming down even as I drive my car. Oops, sorry about your kid, lolz!"
"Just a few more months of this torture, and I'll I have a Cleopatra Nose like that big-haired famous lady on TV!"
Gosh, I really hope I get my new nose before I suffer further brain damage from the oxygen starvation caused by my self-induced sleep apnea."
US$15.000.000.000,00
15.000 million-dollar houses?
1 building ~ 30 apartments
500 buildings
1 block ~ 20 buildings
25 blocks
Vieira Souto e Delfim Moreira, inteiras?
Is that the value for these ads?
All variations on these themes have been done
A 3rd reason Web2.0 will most likely crash
3. An economic downturn is coming
-- The Credit Crunch has taken a writedown of 15Billion from Citigroup; ~10Billion from UBS, and so on
-- Meanwhile
Inflation is coming to the US
If inflation comes, money disappears
Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, etc. will lose market value.
which means they will be less able to acquire others.
and the VCs will become risk-averse and most likely turn to green energy.
By 2015, a new revolution will be coming
How can we can prepare for it?
Study and sacrifice
Where do I start?
Success, study, and sacrifice
A little of Paul Graham
Success, study, and sacrifice
How to avoid attention-deficit disorder?
-- Find time. Quiet time!
-- Set your compiler/paper to load automatically when your computer boots
-- Subordinate your life to it
Steve Jobs once said that the success or failure of a startup depends on the first ten employees.
Being small is not, in itself, what makes startups kick butt, but rather that small groups can be select: small in the sense of an all-star team.
Economically, you can think of a startup as a way to compress your whole working life into a few years.
Instead of working at a low intensity for forty years, you work as hard as you possibly can for four.
a conservation law at work
if you want to make a million dollars, you have to endure a million dollars' worth of pain.
For example, one way to make a million dollars would be to work for the Post Office your whole life, and save every penny of your salary. Imagine the stress of working for the Post Office for fifty years.
Imagine the stress of working for the Post Office for fifty years.
In a startup you compress all this stress into four, five years. You do tend to get a certain bulk discount if you buy the economy-size pain, but you can't evade the fundamental conservation law.
If starting a startup were easy, everyone would do it.
At Viaweb I considered myself lucky if I got to hack a quarter of the time. And the things I had to do the other three quarters of the time ranged from tedious to terrifying.
I have a benchmark for this: I once had to leave a board meeting to have some cavities filled. I remember sitting back in the dentist's chair, waiting for the drill, and feeling like I was on vacation.
Success, study, and sacrifice
If you ever feel youre on vacation on the dentist chair, that means youre putting some sacrifice.
2007
Papers in Artificial Intelligence, Minds and Machines, Proceedings of the Cognitive Science Society, Proceedings of EuroCogSci, Cognitive Science, Commentary in Behavioral and Brain Sciences;
Papers rejected, which need more work;
And many new ideas coming from this course
A plan for 2008
Execution
A new course
Autoprogramming
Interchangeable thinkable stuff
Harrys learning algorithms
Integration
A plan for 2008
Nicholas Thesis: Jarbas & Christian
Project for Christians co.
Project for Jarbass work
Plan for 2008
Autoprogramming
Paper for computer science journal
Paper for cognitive science journal
Paper for philosophy/neuroscience journal
Measuring intuition
Psychology or decision making Journal
Brums work
Psychology Journal
Execution is about beautiful design
E=MC2
Good design is beautiful
Simple: When youre forced to be simple, there is no ornament, only the real problem
Timeless: it has no mistakes, and will not be improved with time
Suggestive: It naturally suggests possibilities unforeseen
Good design is beautiful
Hard: All the people that have done great work have worked incredibly hard.
Looks easy: it looks as if everyone could have done it.
Good design is beautiful
Uses symmetry: repetition and recursion
Redesign: the first version is for throwing away
Daring: You have the acquired ability to see ugliness, and your design will seem daring to others.
You only get one life
You only get one life
We are NOT saying that you will get rich.
We are saying that SOMEONE will get rich.
Very much so.
And you can choose to witness it, or to participate.