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Lessons learnt from assessing eco-efficiency in the field of electric mobilitySTOA Lunch DebateBrussels, May 07, 2013
Rainer Zah, QuantisPeter de Haan, Ernst Basler + Partner
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From Hype to Analysis
Again and again: hoping for new mobility technologies that are sustainable without need for changing behavior:
– Electric cars of the 90ies– Natural gas cars– Hybrid cars– Hydrogen cars– Electric cars of today
… but emobility is not THE solution…
When is emobility part of the solution („opportunity“), when is it part of the problem („risk“)?
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Scope of the study Future development of cars, power supply and user behavior for the
years 2012, 2020, 2035 und 2050.
eMobility = electric engine + >50% power from grid: H2-cars and hybrids are excluded
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Combustion engine
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Methods
Future development of car components (Literature study)
Future development of power supply (Gov. Scenarios)
Environmental impact assessment
Env. Impacts of future electric cars (LCA)
Emobility penetration model (ABM)
Env. Impacts of Swiss fleet
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Batteries as key factor for emobility penetration
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range?
500km
150km
en
erg
y d
en
sit
y o
n b
att
ery
level (
Wh
/kg
)
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Potential development of battery costs
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Costs
on
batt
ery
level (
$/k
Wh
)
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Methods
Future development of car components
Future development of power supply
Environmental impact assessment
Env. Impacts of future electric cars
Emobility penetration model
Env. Impacts of Swiss fleet
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Development of Life Cycle GHG Emissions
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BEV IC
E
80%
<10%
greenhouse gas emissions compact-cars (kg CO2-eq/km)
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The role of the electricity mix
BEV; certified eco-power, CH, real
BEV; governmental scenario, CH, real
BEV; consumer mix, CH, real
BEV; natural gas power plant , EU, real
BEV; consumer mix, EU, real
BEV; coal power plant , EU, real
ICE; EU-goal 2025, 70g/km CH, NEDC
ICE; EU-goal 2025, 70g/km CH, real
ICE; Canadian oil sands CH, real
Greenhouse gas emissions (g CO2-eq./km)
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Methods
Future development of car components
Future development of power supply
Environmental impact assessment
Env. Impacts of future electric cars
Emobility penetration model
Env. Impacts of Swiss fleet
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Maximum global production capacity
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
vEK2011: Szen. 1
vEK2011: Szen. 2
vEK2011: Szen. 3
B2009: Baseline-Szen.
B2009: Szen. teure Energie
B2009: Szen. EV-Subventionen
Alpiq (2009)
ZB2010: konservatives Szen.
ZB2010: optimistisches Szen.
asa (2011): mittleres Szen.
asa (2011): hohes Szen.
Shell (2009): Trend-Szen.
Shell (2009): alternatives Szen.
Produktionskapazität
Many forecasts are higher then the technical production capacity of electric cars!
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Electric mobility will never reach 100%;Co-existence with ICE cars even after 2050
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Perc
enta
ge s
ale
s
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Methods
Future development of car components
Future development of power supply
Environmental impact assessment
Env. Impacts of future electric cars
Emobility penetration model
Env. Impacts of Swiss fleet
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How are GHG emissions developing?
Greenhouse gas emissions of the Swiss individual car fleet relative to 2012
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Lessons learnt…
Focus on efficiency for all cars: positive impacts on all aspects. Indirect support of electric mobility. Reduces risk for wrong incentives
From mineral oil tax to road tax: start smooth transition soon. This supports also mixed mobility for long distance driving.
Focus on recycling: improve component reuse and recycling of lithium and rare metals from electeric cars.
Rebound effects: equal taxes per km. Continue with taxes for possessing a car (even a small car).
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Project team Ernst Basler + Partner AG
Dr. Peter de Haan,Denise Fussen,
Dr. Katrin Bernath,Frank Bruns
Project team EMPA Dübendorf
Dr. Rainer Zah, Marcel Gauch,
Dr. Hans-Jörg Althaus,Dr. Patrick Wäger,
Rolf Widmer
free access:www.ta-swiss.ch