1Simplified construction of an energetic world in 2050Sandra BouneauInstitut de Physique Nucléaire d’[email protected]
« Programme Interdisciplinaire Energie » – CNRSGroupe « nucléaire du futur »Sandra Bouneau, Sylvain David – IPN OrsayJean-Marie Loiseaux, Olivier Méplan – LPSC GrenobleJacques Treiner – Sciences Po. & UPMC
2
What this work is nota predictive scenario giving
the path to follow to reach a given world energy landscape in 2050based on a continuous evolution
Initial motivations quantitative description of what could be the world energy landscape in 2050
under specific constraintso a finite amount of available energyo a reduction of GHG emissionso a reduction of inequalities of energy consumption in the world
to determine the impacts of these constraints on o the energy consumption of different types of populationo the energy mixo the match between available sources and energy needs
The purpose of this presentation is to show how this work could be transposed as a tool for scenario analysis
3
Working hypothesis
non homogeneous energy consumption at a country scale Co-existence of different populations according their level of energy consumption
Inequalities of energy consumption still exist in 20501
for emerging and poor countries 3 types of population
P1,country : high energy consumption per capita C1
P2,country : moderate energy consumption per capita C2
P3,country : low energy consumption per capita C3
total population of present developed countries
P1,country : high energy consumption per capita C1
whatever the country considered : C1, C2 and C3 are the same
at the world scale :
C1, C2 et C3 are strongly constrained by the sum rule
P1,country = P1,WorldWorld
countries
P3,country = P3,WorldWorld
countries
P2,country = P2,WorldWorld
countries
P1,World C1 + P2,World C2 + P3,World C3 = EWorld
4
Inequalities of energy consumption still exist in 20501choice to parametrize the consumption inequalities between P1, P2 and P3 by a unique parameter « inequality ratio »
a = C1/C2 = C2/C3 so that C1 = a2 C3 and C2 = a C3
[a2 P1,World + a P2,World + P3,World]C3 = EWorld
Pi’s parametrization2For emerging and poor countriesstrong correlations between urbanization rate and economical developement and so energy consumption
urban population in 2050/country : Purban = turbanizaion x Pcountry
rural population in 2050/country : Prural = (1 – turbanizaion) x Pcountry
Working hypothesis
C1C2C3
a.u.
a
a
Set of parameters• EWorld
• a• P1,World, P2,World,
P3,World
Outcomes• C1, C2 and C3
• total energy consumption/Pi,World’s• total energy
consumption/country
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Pi’s parametrization2Purban and Prural are distibuted into P1, P2 and P3
0 0.5 10
0.5
1
u1
u2
richest emergent countries
P1,country= Purban
poor countriesP2,country= Purban
emerging countriesP1,country = Purban/2P2,country = Purban/2
0 0.5 10
0.5
1
r2
r3
richest emergent countries
Prural = P2,country
emerging countriesP3,country = Prural
P1,country = u1 Purban,country + r1 Prural, country
P2,country = u2 Purban,country + r2 Prural,country
P3,country = u3 Purban,country + r3 Prural,country
urban populations have mainly high and moderate energy consumption u3 = 0 ; (u1+u2) = 1rural populations have mainly low energy consumption r1 = 0 ; (r2 + r3) = 1
parameters u1, u2, r2 and r3 can be adjusted according to the economical development of the country
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Reference case
dev. count. AsiaChina
India
Asia others Africa
Sub-Saha. Afr.
Latin Am.
Middle-East012345 P3
P2P1
Gin
hab
Set of parameters• Pcountry
• turbanization, country
• parametrization o emergent countries: u1 = u2 = 0,5 ; r3 =
1o poor countries: u1 = 0 ; u2 = 1 ; r3 = 1
Results• Pi,World’s distributiono P1,World = 3,6
Ginhab.o P2,World = 3,0
Ginhab.o P3,World = 2,7
Ginhab.
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Dev. Cou. Asia China India Africa Sub-Saha. Afr.
Lat. Am. M.-E.0
1
2
3
4
52009 2050
toe/
cap/
y -25%
+25%x3 x2
Reference case
Set of parameters• EWorld = 20 Gtoe/y• a = 2 C1/C3 = 4, C2/C3 =
2• P1,World, P2,World, P3,WorldInequality reduced by a factor 2 between the richest and poorest populations compared with today
Results• energy consumption per capitao C1 = 3, 46 toe/cap/yo C2 = 1,73 toe/cap/yo C3 = 0,86 toe/cap/y
• total energy consumption/Pi’so P1 = 12,5 Gtoe/yo P2 = 5,1 Gtoe/yo P3 = 2,4 Gtoe/yEnergy consumption in 2050
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10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 300
1
2
3
4
5
6
C1 C2
C3
Etot (Gtoe/y)
toe/
cap/
ypresent mean energy consumption of developed countries
a mean energy consumption of present rich countries stabilized to 4,4 toe/cap/y in 2050 with a reduction of inequalities leads to a total energy consumption of 25 Gtoe/y
a 15 Gtoe/y scenario does not allow to emerging and poor populations to increase their energy consumption by 2050
A total energy of 20 Gtoe/y is rather sober and maybe too low to be acceptable compared with the present world evolution
Reference case: C1, C2, C3 evolution with EWorld
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Reference case: C1, C2, C3 evolution with Pi’s at fixed a = 2 and EWorld = 20 Gtoe/y
rather small sensitivity of Ci’s with Pi’s strongest variations of Ci’s when P1 moves to P3 (and inversely)
-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
-40
-20
0
20
40
dP1/P1 (%) at Pworld = constant
dCi/Ci (%)
P1 P3
present mean energy consumption of developed countries
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Reference case: C1, C2, C3 evolution with a, at fixed EWorld = 20 Gtoe/y and Pi’s
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
P1P2
a
dCi/C
i (%
)
toward higher inequalities
present inequalities between richest and poorest countries
the poorest populations are the more impacted by inequality
P1 25%
with a 20 Gtoe/y fixed, to stabilize a mean energy consumption of present rich countries to 4,4 toe/cap/yin 2050 requires both inequality ratios higher and a reduction of population P1
present mean energy consumption of developed countries
refe
renc
e
11
to take into account the climate constraint limitation of fossil fuels consumption leading to CO2 emissions
amount of fossils that each group P1, P2 and P3 can use As previuosly, choice of a unique parameter « fossil inequality ratio » between
P1, P2 and P3: b = F1/F2 = F2/F3 so that
[b2 P1,World + b P2,World + P3,World]F3 = Fworld
GHG emissions3
Working hypothesis
12
Reference case
Inequality reduced by a factor 6 between the richest and poorest populations compared with today
Results• fossil consumption per capitao F1 = 0,6 toe/cap/yearo F2 = 0,42 toe/cap/yearo F3 = 0,3 toe/cap/year
• fossil consumption/Pi’so P1 = 2,15 Gtoe/yo P2 = 1,25 Gtoe/yo P3 = 0,8 Gtoe/y
• CO2 emissions/Pi’s
Set of parameters• Fworld = 4,2 Gtoe/y reduction factor
of GHG = 2• = b √2 (< a = 2) F1/F3 = 2, F2/F3 = √2 • P1,World, P2,World, P1,World
Dev. Cou. Asia China India Africa Sub-Saha. Afr.
Lat. Am. M.-E.02468
1012
20092050
tCO
2/ca
p/y
/6
/4
x2
CO2 emissions in 2050
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How to satisfy energy needs in the case of a reduction of fossil uses ? quantify the different energy needs quantify the CO2-non emitting energy sources available in 2050
4 consumption sectors are considered• transport : fuel only• industry : high-temperature heat only• residential/services : low-temperature heat only• electricity
different profiles of consumption according P1, P2 and P3 based on the average consumption profiles of present developed, emerging and poor countries
match between available sources in 2050 and energy needs4
Working hypothesis
0
10
20
30
40
transportindustryres./serv.electricity
Frac
tion
of th
e to
tal e
nerg
y (%
)
0
10
20
30
40
0
10
20
30
40
profile of present rich countries P1
profile of present emerging countries P2
profile of present poor countries P3
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transp
.indus.
res./
serv
.éle
c.tra
nsp.
indus.re
s./se
rv.
élec.
transp
.indus.
res./
serv
.éle
c.
0
1
2
3
4
56
Gtoe
/yea
r
population P1
population P2
population P3
Reference case
Set of parameters• Pi’s total energy
consumption• Pi’s profile consumption
match between available sources in 2050 and energy needs4
To count available sources• fossil fuels with CO2 emissions fixed by the GHG reduction factor• main renewable energy sources• fossil fuels with CCS technology• nuclear power
energy consumption/sector
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Reference case
Set of parameters• Fworld = 4,2 Gtoe/y• fossil fuels with CCS = 3,7 Gtoe/y
12 GtCO2/y to store• potentials of renewable sources = 7,5 Gtoe/y• nuclear power : free parameter• Pi’s energy consumption/sector
HydroBiomass Solar
wind other renew.
fossil with CO2
fossil + CCS(Gtoe/year) biofuels wood water
heat PV CSP
2008 0,7 0,03 0,9 ? 0,0003 ? 0,05 0,025 9,62050 2 0,5 2 0,5 0,5 0,7 1 0,3 4,2 3,7
deployement x 3 x 20 x 2 x 2000 x 20uses
transport x xHT heat x x x x xLT heat x x x x x x
electricity x x x x x x x x
Outcomes• energy mix/Pi’s• energy mix/region• world energy mix
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Tr. Ind. R./S. elec. Tr. Ind. R./S. elec.
Tr. Ind. R./S.
elec. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6 missing energynuclear heatfoss. CCS + cogen.renew. heatfoss. with CO2Gt
oe/y
population P1
population P2
population P3
energy mix construction5 Methodology
Illustrated in the reference case
fossils with CO2 emissions used first mainly for transport = 4,2 Gtoe/y
renewable energy sources for transport (biofuel) and heat (wood, solar water heat and CSP, geothermal) = 3,7 Gtoe/y almost all the energy needs of rural population P3 are provided
production of heat with cogeneration and CCS = 2,5 Gtoe/y of fossils (8 GtCO2/y to store)
production of heat with nuclear energy for industry needs of P1 and P2 only = 0,8 Gtoe/y
energy is still missing for transport and heat total transfer to electricity = 3 Gtoe/y
1 MWhelec = 0,22 tep 1 Gtoe = 4545,45 TWhelec
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elec. elec. elec. 0
10000
20000
30000
40000 nuclearfoss. CCSrenew. elec.fos. CCS + cogen.biomassfos. with CO2
TWhe
lec/
y
population P1
population P2
population P3
fossils with CO2 emissions
renewable energy sources for electricity generation (hydropower, PV, solar CSP, wind, geothermal) = 4 Gtoe/y
fossils with CCS for electricity generation only = 1,2 Gtoe/y of fossils
ultimate electricity missing filled by nuclear energy for P1 & P2 only = 4,6 Gtoe/y
transfer to electricity minimized by cogeneration and heat pump for res./serv. sector
electric mix construction6
fossils with CCS and cogeneration
biomass for P3 from previous steps
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P1 P2 P30%
20%40%60%80%
100%nuclear
renew. Elec.
foss. CCS
renew. (heat and bio-fuels)
fos. GHG
dev. coun.Asia
ChinaIndia
Africa
Sub-Saha. Afr
Latin Am.M.-E.
01234
toe/
cap/
y
2009 205005
10152025
Gto
e/y nuclear x9 = 5,4 Gtoe/y
renewables for heat/electricity/transport = 7,5 Gtoe/y
fossils with CCS = 3,7 Gtoe/y 12 GtCO2/y
outcomeslarge differencies between the
energy mixes of P1, P2 and P3
reflect the hypothesis and the values of parameters
energy mixes of different regions
world energy mix
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focus on electricity fraction: intermittent /(intermittent +flexible )
Dev. Cou.China
IndiaAsia oth.
No. Afr.So. Afr.
Afr. Oth.
Lat. Am.M.-E.
010203040506070 inter/total
inter/(inter+flex.)
%
Dev. Cou. Asia China IndiaAfrica
Sub-Saha. AfrLat. Am.
M.-E.0
2000
4000
6000total (TWh/y) individual kWh/cap/y
storage at very large scale management of the intermittent
electricity with electrical transport make nuclear power flexible ….
distribution of nuclear power in the World
outcomes
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Conclusions (1/2)
Simple relations connecting key paramaters parameters and results can be easily switched flexible use to project different scenarios through the choosen parameters
interpretation of different scenarios in a common framework based ono inequality ratios on energy consumption and CO2 emissionsodifferent types of population at a country scale and not anymore between
countries/regions viewed as homogeneouswhich could be interesting to analyse the issues on o climate negociationso ressources sharing
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Conclusions (2/2)
match between energy sources and energy needs / mix energy construction
o reveal some critical problems which emerge from the climate constraint to meet the energy we need as we get used to consume it today
- lack of energy sources for heat and transport needs, - increase of electricity generation due to massive transfer of these needs to
electricity and not only because of an increase of « classical electrical uses »
o analyse the correlations between initial hypothesis used in scenarios and emphasize possible contradictions between them
Ex : development of poor/emerging countries + GHG reduction + no nuclear power
o analyse how the energy sources used in different scenarios (fossil fuel, nuclear power and renewables) compete with each other and impact some key points as
- electrical transport- intermittency management- CO2 storage capacity