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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Operational implementation of NINFA in Northern Italy
ARPA Servizio IdroMeteorologicoBologna Italy
Michele Stortini, Giovanni Bonafe’, Marco Deserti, Enrico Minguzzi, Suzanne Jongen
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Contents
Description of Northern Italy Network for Forecast Aerosol pollution
Winter test case (February 2004) Open questions and further developments
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Why NINFA
Starting from 2006: daily runs, providing hourly air quality analysis and forecasts
Air quality forecast in the Po Valley Air quality evaluation scenarios for regional and
local reduction Action Plan Background fields for urban models (i.e. ISC,
ADMS-Urban) used by ARPA local departments.
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
METEO: LAMI (7*7 km)
CHIMERE (10*10 km)
EMISSIONS:CTN_ACE (5*5 km)
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS: Prev'air (0.5*0.5
degree)
OUTPUT:O3, NO2, SO2, PM
NINFA
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
NINFA (ER-Chimere-regional) 10*10km
Prev’air (Chimere-continental) 0.5*0.5 degree
Urban Models (ADMS-Urban)
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Emission Inventory CTN-ACE(National Topic Center on Air Climate and Emissions)
Input data: Italian National Inventory 2000 and EMEP 2000
(NOx,NH3,SO2,PM10,CO,VOC)
Output data: Gridded emissions for two national domains Northern (BPA)
and Southern Italy (MED) Time profiles (EPA AP-42, EMEP/CORINAIR Guidebook v3.0,
Lombardia regional inventory) Chemical VOC speciation (UK NAEI) Chemical speciation profiles and PM granulometric classes
distribution (EPA, Speciate v3.2)
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
PM10 Annual Emission
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Winter test case: 12-19 february 2004
Model:Chimere regional 10*10 km (release V200410A)
Boundary Conditions: “re-analysis” Chimere continental (0.5*0.5 degree)
Meteo: Lama “re-analysis” Lokal Model (7*7 km)
Emissions: Data set CTN-ACE (5*5 km)
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Average PM10 concentration 12-19 feb. 2004
NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level
General under estimation of PM10
Some ‘hot-spot’ close to energy power plan
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Emission Pm10 (sector 1)/ Pm10 tot
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
NINFA1: All emissions data at ground level
Emissions sector 1 at 4th level
NINFA4: Emissions sector 3 at 2nd level
Other emissions at 1st level
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Winter test case: 12-19 february 2004
Left panel: Continental CHIMERE driven by MM5 (labelled CONT)
Right panel :Regional CHIMERE driven by LM (labelled NINFA4)
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
NINFA4 better reproduces spatial structures although aerosol modelling results are under estimated
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Rural Background stations
Good agreement at Ghegardi and Montecuccolino (TEOM station)!!
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Suburban station (1)
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Suburban station (2)
PM10 simulated concentrations are generally three or four times lower than the observed ones. NINFA4 gives better results
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Granulometric classes distributions and aerosol species (spatial average)
Secondary organic aerosol very low!!!
phno3>ppm!!!
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
NINFA4 reproduces patterns in urban areas (Milan, Turin, Venice) as
well as along major roads
Average NO2 concentration 12-19 feb. 2004
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Rural Background stations
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Suburban station (1)
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Suburban station (2)
NINFA4 seems fairly reproduce NO2
concentrations over the major part of stations
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Discussion and conclusions
NINFA has been implemented at ARPA-SIM. This model provides simulation results for PM and gas species.
Compared to continental model NINFA improve substantially NO2 simulation probably due to more accuracy of anthropogenic emission; comparisons with available data at background and suburban stations give acceptable results on PM10 only in few stations although NINFA gives better results.
Some open questions: The introduction of Point source emission scheme could
improve substantially model skill especially over Po Valley? Secondary organic matter vs. resuspension
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1st Chimere workshop 21-22 March 2005 Stortini,Bonafe,Deserti,Minguzzi,Jongen
Further works
Implementation of latest version of Chimere Test with increasing the model secondary organic
matter and/or resuspension Long-term simulations (summer and winter
seasons)