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IAHR-HK Student Research Forum, November 17, 2012
A Study on Storm Surge and Wave for Hong Kong Using
Different Typhoon Wind Field Models and Best Track Data
Johnny Kai-Chun CHEUNG, Dr. Ander CHOW
ARUP, HKSAR, China
Abstract: Located at the northern coast of the South China Sea one of the most
active typical cyclone sub-basins in the world Hong Kong is often threatened bystorm surge and wave due to the approaching tropical cyclones, causing sea water
inundation and damages of coastal structures.
Nowadays, sea wall is still the main solution to protect the city from storm surge and
wave. Hence, estimation of sea wall height is a major issue. The wall might not be
able to cope with storm surge and wave if it is too low. On the other hand, the
construction and maintenance fee would be very high if it is too high. Typically, the
height of the wall was designed using a combination of wave height, astronomical tide
level and storm surge near the site. However, only very limited observation data was
available for design and this would affect the reliability and safety of the coastal
structures. Therefore, estimation of storm surge and wave of interested area is
important for planning and designing effective coastal protective works and strategies.
Numerical hydrodynamic model is one of the tools that can be used to estimate both
the storm surge and wave under different tropical cyclone conditions for the designworks. The results are simulated by putting a wind field which describes the typhoon
wind speed, wind direction and pressure of the modelled area into the hydrodynamic
model. The wind field can be generated by several typhoon models using the tropical
cyclone tracks data. The data are called best track data and each observatory agent
provides its own best track data for each cyclone event. The data include times,
tropical cyclone centre locations, maximum sustained wind speeds, minimum centre
pressures and the maximum wind radii at six-hour intervals. To achieve accurate
results, precise descriptions of wind and pressure of the typhoon wind field would bea key element. The objective of this paper is to study the best typhoon model and best
track data for Hong Kong by computing and comparing the storm surge and wave of
different typical cyclone events for Hong Kong with the measured data.
In this paper different wind fields based on different wind models were generated
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A Study on Storm Surge and Wave for Hong Kong Using Different
Typhoon Wind Field Models and Best Track Data
Cheung Kai Chun, Johnny
Supervisor: Dr. Ander Chow
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Contents
Background & Motivation
Result and Discussion
Conclusion
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STORMTropicalcyclone
Background
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On average, about 6 to 7 tropical cyclones affect Hong Kong each year
Tropical Cyclone Tracks Entering the 300 km range of Hong Kong (1951-2011)
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Tropical Cyclone Track Information
Background
MaximumWind
Radius
MaximumSustainedWindSpeed
CycloneEye
Location
MinimumCentre
PressureTime
Best TrackData
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Hong KongObservatory
(HKO)
Japan
MetrologicalAgency (JMA)
Joint TyphoonWarningCenter
(JTWC)
Background
Significant difference
were found between best
track data provided by
different agents
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SURGE
Background
The differences between water
level and astronomical tide.
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Storm Surge
Generated by tropical cyclone
Background
Pressure
Relative low pressure at the centre of
tropical cyclone
Pressure driven surge
(5% of total)
Wind driven surge
Cyclone direction Deep water region: water
flows without raising sea
level too much
Storm Surge = Storm Water Level (Measured) Normal Water Level (Predict)
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Wave
Combination of swells and local wind waves
Background
WAVE PERIOD WAVELENGTH WAVE TYPE CAUSE
Capillary < 0.1 sec < 2 cm deep to shallow local winds
Chop 1-10 sec 1-10 m deep to shallow local winds
Swell 10-30 sec up to hundreds of m deep or shallow distant storm
Seiche 10 min-10 hr up to hundreds of km shallow or intermediate wind, tsunami, tidal
resonance
Tsunami 10-60 min up to hundreds of km shallow or intermediate
earthquakes or volcanic
eruptions under (or near) the
ocean
Tide 12.4-24.8 hr thousands of km shallow gravitational attraction of sun
and moon
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Storm Surge
Maximum Storm Surge Maximum Storm Tide Level
Station
Maximum sea level
(above chart datum)
Maximum storm surge
(above astronomical tide)
Height (m) Date/Month Time Height (m) Date/Month Time
Quarry Bay 2.76 24/7 01:48 1.11 24/7 01:48
Shek Pik 3.19 24/7 02:08 1.47 24/7 02:08
Tai Miu Wan 2.78 24/7 01:45 1.19 24/7 01:45
Tai Po Kau 3.09 24/7 01:53 1.47 24/7 03:24
Tsim Bei Tsui 3.23 24/7 03:46 1.51 24/7 03:46
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Damages Brought By Storm Surge and Wave
Background
Serious inundation in Tai O due to the
combination of storm surge and high tide(Typhoon Hagupit, 2008)
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Solution?
Background
Tai O Seawall
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Couple Flow-Wave Hydrodynamic Model
Background
Typhoon Wind Field:
Generated by typhoon
wind model
Describe the wind and
pressure of the
modelled area
Main driving force of
the model!
Significant Wave Height Storm Surge
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Typhoon Wind Model
Background
Convert Best Track Data into the wind speed and pressure at a specific location
Popular models : Young, Holland, Rankine, etc
Best Track Data
Typhoon Wind Field for modelling
works
Typhoon Wind Model
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Objective
Objective
Goal: To find the Best Typhoon Model and Best Track Datafor Hong Kong
Strom Surge and
Wave ModelledResult
TyphoonWindField
Model
Best TrackData
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Methodology Outline
Methodology Outline
The Best Typhoon Model
and Best Track Data for
Hong Kong were selected
based on the smallest %
Error and % RMS Error
Best TrackData (HKO &
JTWC)
TyphoonWind Field
HydrodynamicModel
StormSurge and
WaveResult
Typhoon Wind Field Model
(Young & Holland)
Coupled Flow-
Wave Model(Delft 3D
SWAN)
Compare With
Observation Data
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Modelled Typical Cyclone Tracks
Modelled Tracks
Hong Kong
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Best Track Data
Best Track Data
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)Hong Kong Observatory (HKO)
HKO JTWC
Time UTC UTCInterval 6 hour 6 hour
Maximum
Sustained Wind 10 min averaged 1 min averaged
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Best Track Data Comparison
Best Track Data
y = 0.7673x + 10.179R = 0.8142
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
HKO10
-minWindSpeed(m/s)
JTWC 10-min Wind Speed (m/s)
y = 0.8516x + 139.58
R = 0.849
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
990
1000
920 930 940 950 960 970 980 990 1000
HKO
Pressure(hPa)
JTWC Pressure (hPa)
Wind Speed Comparison
Center Pressure Comparison
JTWC ~ 1.3 HKO
JTWC ~ 1.13HKO
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Typhoon Wind Field
Typhoon Wind Model
Wind Field Required Parameters
Radial distance fromthe storms center, r Max WindRadius, RmwCenter Pressure,Pc
Max Sustained WindSpeed, Vmax
Young
Holland
Young (1981)
where B = 1.5 + (980-Pc)/120
Holland (1980)
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Couple Flow-Wave Model (Delft3D SWAN)
Curvi-linear grid
Wind forcing by typhoon wind field
Boundary Condition = HK MSL
Model Built
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Bathymetry
South China Sea ENC
HK ENC
Paper Charts
Model Built
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Model Train
Model Train
Delft 3D
SWAN
- Water Level- Current
- Wind Field
Radiation Stress
Maximum 15 iterations
Time Steps 1 Minute Every 60 minutesEvery 60 minutes
- Bathymetry
- Boundary Condition (HK
MSL)- Computational grid
- Time frame
- Typhoon Wind field
Initial
Water LevelCurrentetc
Every 60 minutes
Significant Wave Height
Peak Periodetc
Output
Every 60 minutes
Output
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Model Runs
Tropical Cyclone Name(ID) Wind ModelUsed Best Track Data Used Name of the Run
Imbudo (200307)
Holland JTWC Imbudo_Holland_JTWC
Holland HKO Imbudo_Holland_HKO
Young JTWC Imbudo_Young_JTWC
Young HKO Imbudo_Young_HKO
Prapiroon (200606)
Holland JTWC Prapiroon_Holland_JTWC
Holland HKO Prapiroon_Holland_HKO
Young JTWC Prapiroon_Young_JTWC
Young HKO Prapiroon_Young_HKO
Nuri (200812)
Holland JTWC Nuri_Holland_JTWC
Holland HKO Nuri_Holland_HKO
Young JTWC Nuri_Young_JTWC
Young HKO Nuri_Young_HKO
Hagupit (200814)
Holland JTWC Hagupit_Holland_JTWC
Holland HKO Hagupit_Holland_HKO
Young JTWC Hagupit_Young_JTWC
Young HKO Hagupit_Young_HKO
Model Runs
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Result Snap Shots Hagupit_Young_JTWC
Result and Discussion Snap Shots
Storm Surge Water was pushed toward Macau
23 Sep 2008 1900 UTC23 Sep 2008 1400 UTC23 Sep 2008 0900 UTC
23 Sep 2008 1900 UTC23 Sep 2008 1400 UTC23 Sep 2008 0900 UTC
Significant Wave Height Huge waves were blocked by the Lema Islands
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Animations HAGUPIT_Young_JTWC
Result and Discussion Animation
Track+Wind Field
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Animations HAGUPIT_Young_JTWC
Result and Discussion Animation
Significant Wave Height
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Animations HAGUPIT_Young_JTWC
Result and Discussion Animation
Storm Surge
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29 Result and Discussion QUB Station
Tropical Cyclone
Name (ID) Name of the Run Max Storm Surge (m) Time % Error
Time Difference
(hh:mm)
Imbudo (200307)
Observation 1.02 24/7/2003 2:31
Holland_JTWC 0.28 23/7/2003 20:00 -72.9% 06:31
Holland_HKO 0.46 24/7/2003 5:00 -55.2% 02:29
Young_JTWC 0.44 23/7/2003 20:00 -57.3% 06:31
Young_HKO 0.61 24/7/2003 5:00 -40.3% 02:29
Prapiroon (200606)
Observation 0.64 3/8/2006 17:48
Holland_JTWC 0.21 3/8/2006 2:00 -67.6% 15:48
Holland_HKO 0.24 3/8/2006 12:00 -63.0% 05:48
Young_JTWC 0.25 3/8/2006 10:00 -61.5% 07:48
Young_HKO 0.29 3/8/2006 10:00 -55.0% 07:48
Nuri (200812)
Observation 0.56 22/8/2008 11:10
Holland_JTWC 0.38 22/8/2008 20:00 -32.6% 08:50
Holland_HKO 0.44 22/8/2008 20:00 -20.9% 08:50
Young_JTWC 0.33 22/8/2008 15:00 -40.9% 03:50
Young_HKO 0.44 22/8/2008 20:00 -21.8% 08:50
Hagupit (200814)
Observation 1.43 24/9/2008 00:54Holland_JTWC 1.34 23/9/2008 22:00 -6.4% 02:54
Holland_HKO 1.02 23/9/2008 23:00 -28.4% 01:54
Young_JTWC 2.12 23/9/2008 23:00 48.3% 01:54
Young_HKO 1.17 23/9/2008 23:00 -18.4% 01:54
QUB Station Storm Surge Results
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30 Result and Discussion TPK Station
Tropical Cyclone
Name (ID) Name of the Run Storm Surge (m) Time % Differece
Time Difference
(hh:mm)
Imbudo (200307)
Observation 1.05 24/7/2003 2:27
Holland_JTWC 0.46 24/7/2003 3:00 -56.6% 00:33
Holland_HKO 0.57 25/7/2003 3:00 -45.3% 00:33
Young_JTWC 0.78 23/7/2003 20:00 -26.0% 06:27
Young_HKO 0.82 24/7/2003 3:00 -22.4% 00:33
Prapiroon (200606)
Observation 0.71 3/8/2006 08:47
Holland_JTWC 0.50 3/8/2006 2:00 -28.98% 06:47
Holland_HKO 0.50 3/8/2006 2:00 -29.22% 06:47
Young_JTWC 0.54 3/8/2006 2:00 -23.61% 06:47
Young_HKO 0.54 3/8/2006 2:00 -23.73% 06:47
Nuri (200812)
Observation 1.13 22/8/2008 16:17
Holland_JTWC 1.00 22/8/2008 14:00 -11.5% 02:17
Holland_HKO 1.64 22/8/2008 14:00 45.2% 02:17
Young_JTWC 0.76 22/8/2008 14:00 -33.0% 02:17
Young_HKO 1.16 22/8/2008 14:00 2.8% 02:17
Hagupit (200814)
Observation 1.77 23/9/2008 23:47
Holland_JTWC 1.71 23/9/2008 23:00 -3.4% 00:47
Holland_HKO 1.32 23/9/2008 23:00 -25.3% 00:47
Young_JTWC 3.09 23/9/2008 23:00 74.5% 00:47
Young_HKO 1.73 23/9/2008 20:00 -2.1% 03:47
TPK Station Storm Surge Results
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31 Result and Discussion TBT Station
Tropical Cyclone
Name (ID) Name of the Run Storm Surge (m) Time % Differece
Time Difference
(hh:mm)
Imbudo (200307)
Observation 1.13 24/7/2003 7:22
Holland_JTWC 0.38 24/7/2003 7:00 -66.5% 00:22
Holland_HKO 0.74 24/7/2003 7:00 -34.4% 00:22
Young_JTWC 0.52 24/7/2003 11:00 -53.6% 03:38
Young_HKO 0.76 24/7/2003 7:00 -32.5% 00:22
Prapiroon (200606)
Observation 0.90 3/8/2006 19:05
Holland_JTWC 0.32 3/8/2006 13:00 -64.4% 06:05
Holland_HKO 0.41 3/8/2006 13:00 -54.1% 06:05
Young_JTWC 0.31 3/8/2006 13:00 -65.2% 06:05
Young_HKO 0.40 3/8/2006 13:00 -55.7% 06:05
Nuri (200812)
Observation 0.78 23/8/2008 0:00
Holland_JTWC 0.43 22/8/2008 21:00 -44.8% 03:00
Holland_HKO 0.52 23/8/2008 2:00 -33.9% 02:00
Young_JTWC 0.40 22/8/2008 21:00 -48.9% 03:00
Young_HKO 0.48 23/8/2008 2:00 -38.2% 02:00
Hagupit (200814)
Observation 1.46 24/9/2008 02:07
Holland_JTWC 1.33 24/9/2008 0:00 -8.6% 02:07
Holland_HKO 1.24 24/9/2008 4:00 -15.1% 01:53
Young_JTWC 2.37 24/9/2008 4:00 62.3% 01:53
Young_HKO 1.62 24/9/2008 5:00 10.9% 02:53
TBT Station Storm Surge Results
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West Lamma Channel (WLC) Significant Wave Height Results
Result and Discussion WLC Station
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Hsig(m)
Obs Holland JTWC Holland HKO YOUNG JTWC YOUNG HKO
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Hsig(m)
WLC Holland JTWC Holland HKO Young JTWC Young HKO
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Hsig(m)
Obs Holland JTWC Holland HKO Young JTWC Young HKO
Typhoon Hagupit (200814) Typhoon Imbudo (200307)
Typhoon Nuri (200812)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Hsig(m)
Obs Holland JTWC Holland HKO YOUNG JTWC YOUNG HKO
Typhoon Prapiroon (200606)
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West Lamma Channel (WLC) Result Comparison
Result and Discussion WLC Station
Tropical Cyclone
Name (ID)Name of the Run RMS Error % RMS Error
Imbudo (200307)
Holland_JTWC 0.77 26.72%
Holland_HKO 0.68 23.65%
Young_JTWC 0.54 18.54%
Young_HKO 0.56 19.49%
Prapiroon
(200606)
Holland_JTWC 0.77 34.80%
Holland_HKO 0.65 29.09%
Young_JTWC 0.48 21.50%
Young_HKO 0.39 17.56%
Nuri (200812)
Holland_JTWC 0.51 18.64%
Holland_HKO 0.71 25.96%
Young_JTWC 0.63 23.22%
Young_HKO 0.62 22.82%
Hagupit (200814)
Holland_JTWC 0.65 21.11%
Holland_HKO 0.58 18.69%
Young_JTWC 1.21 39.27%
Young_HKO 0.75 24.43%
Time Series Comparison
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34 Result and Discussion WLC Station
Tropical Cyclone
Name (ID) Name of the Run Max Hsig (m) Time % Differece
Time Difference
(hh:mm)
Imbudo (200307)
Observation 3.38 24/7/2003 6:00
Holland_JTWC 2.15 23/7/2003 21:00 -36.4% +09:00
Holland_HKO 2.92 24/7/2003 3:00 -13.7% +03:00
Young_JTWC 2.95 24/7/2003 9:00 -12.6% -03:00
Young_HKO 3.24 24/7/2003 9:00 -4.1% -03:00
Prapiroon (200606)
Observation 2.99 3/8/2006 12:00
Holland_JTWC 1.52 3/8/2006 15:00 -49.2% -03:00
Holland_HKO 1.87 3/8/2006 15:00 -37.4% -03:00
Young_JTWC 2.12 3/8/2006 15:00 -29.0% -03:00
Young_HKO 2.28 3/8/2006 15:00 -23.6% -03:00
Nuri (200812)
Observation 3.11 22/8/2008 20:00
Holland_JTWC 3.12 22/8/2008 21:00 0.2% -01:00
Holland_HKO 3.46 22/8/2008 21:00 11.3% -01:00
Young_JTWC 2.37 22/8/2008 21:00 -23.8% -01:00
Young_HKO 3.48 22/8/2008 21:00 11.8% -01:00
Hagupit (200814)
Observation 3.49 24/9/2008 2:00
Holland_JTWC 3.63 23/9/2008 21:00 4.0% +05:00
Holland_HKO 3.45 24/9/2008 3:00 -1.2% -01:00
Young_JTWC 4.38 24/9/2008 3:00 25.4% -01:00
Young_HKO 3.88 24/9/2008 3:00 11.1% -01:00
West Lamma Channel (WLC) Result Comparison
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Kau Yi Chau (KYC) Significant Wave Height Results
Result and Discussion KYC Station
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Hsig(m)
Obs Holland JTWC Holland HKO YOUNG JTWC YOUNG HKO
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Hsig(m)
KYC Holland JTWC Holland HKO Young JTWC Young HKO
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Hsig(m)
Obs Holland JTWC Holland HKO Young JTWC Young HKO
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Hsig(m)
Obs Holland JTWC Holland HKO YOUNG JTWC YOUNG HKO
Typhoon Hagupit (200814) Typhoon Imbudo (200307)
Typhoon Nuri (200812) Typhoon Prapiroon (200606)
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Kau Yi Chau (KYC) Result Comparison
Result and Discussion KYC Station
Tropical Cyclone
Name (ID)Name of the Run RMS Error % RMS Error
Imbudo (200307)
Holland_JTWC 0.58 24.58%
Holland_HKO 0.51 21.66%
Young_JTWC 0.49 21.07%
Young_HKO 0.49 20.72%
Prapiroon
(200606)
Holland_JTWC 0.63 32.00%
Holland_HKO 0.51 25.98%
Young_JTWC 0.38 19.07%
Young_HKO 0.31 15.87%
Nuri (200812)
Holland_JTWC 0.42 23.13%
Holland_HKO 0.52 28.25%
Young_JTWC 0.46 25.31%
Young_HKO 0.49 26.51%
Hagupit (200814)
Holland_JTWC 0.54 19.14%
Holland_HKO 0.53 18.56%
Young_JTWC 0.85 29.91%
Young_HKO 0.59 20.87%
Time Series Comparison
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37 Result and Discussion KYC Station
Tropical Cyclone
Name (ID) Name of the Run Max Hsig (m) Time % Differece
Time Difference
(hh:mm)
Imbudo (200307)
Observation 2.68 24/07/2003 07:00
Holland_JTWC 1.71 23/07/2003 21:00 -36.2% +10:00
Holland_HKO 2.22 24/07/2003 03:00 -17.1% +04:00
Young_JTWC 2.46 24/07/2003 09:00 -8.3% -02:00
Young_HKO 2.64 24/07/2003 09:00 -1.6% -02:00
Prapiroon (200606)
Observation 2.47 3/8/2006 11:00
Holland_JTWC 1.32 3/8/2006 15:00 -46.7% -04:00
Holland_HKO 1.61 3/8/2006 15:00 -34.8% -04:00
Young_JTWC 1.86 3/8/2006 15:00 -24.8% -04:00
Young_HKO 2.01 3/8/2006 15:00 -18.7% -04:00
Nuri (200812)
Observation 2.36 22/08/2008 20:00
Holland_JTWC 2.18 22/08/2008 21:00 -7.5% -01:00
Holland_HKO 2.17 22/08/2008 21:00 -8.0% -01:00
Young_JTWC 1.66 22/08/2008 21:00 -29.5% -01:00
Young_HKO 2.14 22/08/2008 21:00 -9.2% -01:00
Hagupit (200814)
Observation 3.31 24/09/2008 01:00
Holland_JTWC 2.88 23/09/2008 23:00 -12.9% +02:00
Holland_HKO 2.80 24/09/2008 03:00 -15.4% -02:00
Young_JTWC 3.43 23/09/2008 23:00 3.7% +02:00
Young_HKO 3.06 24/09/2008 03:00 -7.7% -02:00
Kau Yi Chau (KYC) Result Comparison
S f C i
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Summary of Comparisons
Summary
Best Performance Model Results (Smallest % Error/ % RMS Error)
Max Storm Surge Max Hsig Time Series % RMS Error
Tropical Cyclone Name
(ID)QUB TPK TBT WLC KYC WLC KYC
Imbudo (200307) Young_HKO Young_HKO Young_HKO Young_HKO Young_HKO Young_JTWC Young_HKO
Prapiroon (200606) Young_HKO Young_JTWC Holland_HKO Young_HKO Young_HKO Young_HKO Young_HKO
Nuri (200812) Holland_HKO Young_HKO Holland_HKO Holland_JTWC Holland_JTWC Holland_JTWC Holland_JTWC
Hagupit (200814) Holland_JTWC Young_HKO Holland_JTWC Holland_HKO Young_JTWC Holland_HKO Holland_HKO
Best Typhoon Wind Model : Young
Best Best Track Data : HKO
C l i
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Conclusion
1. For Hong Kong:
Best Typhoon Model : Young
Best Best Track Data: HKO
2. Storm surge results are always underestimated
3. Large time difference with the observed max data
Conclusion
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EndThank you very much