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2010 Rolls-Royce plcThe information in this document is the property of Rolls-Royce plc and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for anypurpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Rolls-Royce plc.This information is given in good faith based upon the latest information available to Rolls-Royce plc, no warranty or representation is givenconcerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Rolls-Royce plc orany of its subsidiary or associated companies.
National Ambitions for Power Generationin the UK
Nuclear TechnologiesRic Parker17th March 2010
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Role of Nuclear in UK Generating Mix
Significance for Timing of Nuclear New-build
UK Focus in Technology Development
Next Generation of Nuclear Power Plants
Opportunities for UK Industry
UK R&D Programme to Support New Build Beyond UK New-build
Civil Nuclear and Rolls-Royce
Beyond Gen III Summary
Outline
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Role of Nuclear in UK Generating Mix
The CBI Decision Time Report July 2009
Business as Usual Scenario
Almost all of the UKs ageing
coal-fired and nuclear powerstations will be retired by 2020
CBI assumes delays in
licensing /authorisation of newnuclear stations will meanthese may not be
commissioned until post 2020
Balanced Pathway Scenario
FGD and NOx-abated
plants capable ofcomplying with the revisedLCPD run until after 2020
Greater encouragement ofCCS throughdemonstrator programmes
Scaling back the 2020
target for renewables,reducing the quantity ofwind
note 1:This level of plant retirement significantly exceeds most previous projections.
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Significance for composition UK generating mix (2030)
Gas fired capacityrises to 36 %
Nuclear capacityconstrained to 20 %
Nuclear capacityincreased to 34 %
Power Prices lower andvolatility reduced
Delivers further CO2abatementover medium term compared toBAU
Gas imports in 2030 rise to100 BCM with greater gasinfrastructure needs
CO2emissions from UK powergen 45%lower in 2030 compared with BAUnote 1
note 1 CBI projects that CO2emissions from Balanced Pathway will amount to 35 MT as compared with 60 MT for BAU
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UK Historical Technology Development
UK currently has 19 nuclear reactors, totalling11 GWe of capacity This fleet is characterised by unique reactor
designs:
15 Advanced Gas-cooled Reactors(AGRs)
2 Magnox stations Only a single UK nuclear power plant (Sizewell
B, Pressurised Water Reactor) completed in
1995 can be considered of modern design By 2020, electricity from these stations reduced
to 7 % of UK capacity from current 15-20% (allexcept Sizewell B closed by 2023)
Only Sizewell B offers scope for significant lifeextension
UK nuclear R&D has been dominated by clean-up and de-commissioning of existing plant.
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Next Generation of Nuclear Plants
Next generation of UK nuclear stations:
HMG approval for 10 sites in England and Wales (first by2017)
UKs proposed new build programme will use existing GenerationIII or III+ reactor designs
The most likely designs for early plants in the next generationinclude:
Westinghouse 1,150 MWe AP1000TM Pressurised WaterReactor (PWR)
AREVA 1,600 MWe European Pressurised water Reactor
(EPR) design
Assessment of non-site-specific issues associated with theabove designs is expected to be completed in Q2 2011.
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Candidate Reactor Designs
Both of the most likely designsare held by non-UK OEMs
The AREVA EPRTM design iscurrently being utilised for the
following new nuclear plantsunder construction:
- Flamanville 3, France
- Olkiluoto Unit 3, Finland
China has officially adopted the WestinghouseAP1000 as a standard for inland nuclear
projects- Sanmen 6 x 1,150 MW units, Zhejang
- Haiyan 6 x 1, 150 MW, Shandong AREVA
Westinghouse
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Opportunities for UK Industry
A report1 (February 2009) examined the capability and capacity of thesupply chain for a UK new civil nuclear build programme
this concluded that there will be significant opportunities for UK-based companies:
Pre-Build (Design) including reactor plantsystem module andproduct definition, instrumentation and control, electrical systems,etc.
Project Management
Civil Construction
Manufacturing, including large forgings, other forgings and
castings, valves, pumps, cables, etc.
Operation and Decommissioning
Nuclear engineering skills gaps were identified as a weakness for theUKs new-build, nuclear supply chain.
Note 1: Supply Chain for a UK Nuclear New Build Programme, Dr Stephen A Court, National Metals TechnologyCentre (NAMTEC) submitted to Department for Business Enterprise and Regulatory Reform (BERR)
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Potential Work-Streams for UK Nuclear
R&D Programme To reduce costs and risks involved in new build and licensing.
- modelling of plant transient behaviour
- external hazard assessment e.g. seismic design
- control and instrumentation
To ensure that plants operate at the maximum safety andcapacity
- Equipment Health Management (EHM), novel sensors,knowledge management techniques, use of virtual plantmodels to assist in maintenance
To ensure long term safety and availability of plants- development of improved materials and lifing To ensure a sustainable waste management
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Today nuclear power accounts for 16% of the worldselectricity production
Operational reactors(2009)Total number 441
New Build(2010-2030)Total number 389
NorthAmerica(167)
SouthAmerica(14)
Europe(170)
South Africa(9)
Rest of Asia(57)
India(52)
China(124)
Russia(74)
CentralEasternEurope(82)
Japan(66)
Region (TotalNo.)
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The world, new-build market is worth ~850Bn to 2030 withthe support market contributing a further ~950Bn
New Build
Current fleet
support
New Buildsupport
Nuclear Power Plantmarket 2010-2030 (Bn)
Source: Rolls-Royce
WEO, WNA
M
New Build
Support
Bn
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Civil Nuclear and Rolls-Royce Rolls-Royce is well-positioned with skills,
capabilities and facilities for participationin UK civil nuclear new build
Over 50 years of nuclear engineering
experience Rolls-Royce has considerable capability
UK submarines: water reactor
engineering, instrumentation andcontrol systems.
Data Systems and Solutions: nuclear
services in USA and mainlandEurope
Structuring high value-added supply
chains ~2000 nuclear engineers/specialists
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Gen IV GOFastR Gas-cOoled Fast Reactors
6m 3-year EU FP7 funded programme with 21partners.
Breeder reactor technology using U-238 and Pu-239as fuel.
High temperature operation (up to 950 C reactoroutlet temperature).
> 45% thermal efficiency.
Single phase, inert primary coolant.
Potential to burn long-lived minor actinides. Rolls-Royce areas of interest:
Power conversion systems systemdesign, component selection andperformance.
High temperature primary circuit heat exchangertechnology.
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New nuclear build has a significant potential for meeting UKGHG and energy security targets
Delivery of technology/systems in time to match retirements iskey
Recent nuclear R&D focus on clean-up and decommissioning ofexisting unique reactor designs
Timing of new UK nuclear stations makes selection of pre-
existing Gen III or III+ designs essential Candidate reactor designs already exist from overseas
suppliers, but considerable opportunities exist for UK industryacross design, construction, operation and decommissioning
A targeted UK R&D programme to support new build will beessential if UK companies are to benefit
This will not stop at Gen III; we need to be match-fit for Gen IV
Summary